Regis Healthcare Limited (REG) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Regis Healthcare 1H FY '24 Half Year Results Briefing. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to Dr. Linda Mellors, Managing Director and CEO. Please go ahead.

Thanks very much, and good morning, everybody, and thank you for joining us today for Regis' half year results for FY 2024. I'd like to begin, of course, by acknowledging the Wurundjeri, Boon Wurrung people of the Kulin Nation, traditional custodians of the land on which we meet today, and pay my respects to elders, past, present and emerging. And I extend that respect to any Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander peoples joining us on the call. And as usual, I'm joined today by Rick Rostolis, our Chief Financial Officer. Regis is one of Australia's largest and most geographically diverse providers of aged care. Regis has a team of more than 10,000 dedicated people, delivering care and services to more than 7,600 residents and clients. Regis now owns and operates 68 residential aged care homes with 7,600 operational places. This includes the acquisition of CPSM, which is completed in December, adding 5 high-quality residential aged care homes in Southeast Queensland with 644 places. Importantly, across the Regis portfolio, 93% of rooms are single with a private ensuite, a prerequisite for many current and future residents. All homes are freehold with significant real estate value, as demonstrated by the average house price in the catchment area across the portfolio exceeding $1.1 million. Regis remains one of the few Australia-wide providers of aged care with residential aged care facilities in every state of Australia and the Northern Territory. In addition to the existing portfolio, Regis also has a pipeline of greenfield developments, including Regis Camberwell in Victoria, which is due to be opened next financial year, Toowong in Brisbane and 2 sites in Sydney. Regis' positive occupancy trend continued during the period with average and spot occupancy at 31 December 2023 being 93.6%. Underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization or underlying EBITDA of $52.1 million was 15% higher than the prior corresponding period. Moving to this morning's agenda. I'll provide an update on some of the key aged care industry changes and reforms followed by an overview of the financial and operating results for the half year, an update on our strategic priorities and outlook and then we'll open up the call for questions. So moving firstly to the aged care industry overview. The last 12 months have delivered some meaningful actions in relation to the government's reform agenda which was laid out in their reform road map in January 2023. There is still more work to be done to stabilize and support the sector into the future, but significant progress is being made. This has included some critical reforms recently implemented to address known and long-standing inhibitors to sector improvement and viability. In terms of funding, from 1 July 2023, the government increased the AN-ACC starting price from $216.80 to $243.10, with the intention to cover the direct care minutes mandate, wage increases and indexation. At the same time, government also introduced a hotelling supplement of $10.80 per resident per day to replace the $10 basic daily fee supplement. In recognition of the government not fully funding the increase to minimum award wages on 1 July 2023, the AN-ACC starting price was further increased from $243.10 to $253.82 effective 1 December 2023. The independent health and aged care pricing authority, or IHACPA, has modeled the cost of care under the AN-ACC funding model and made recommendations to government. IHACPA's pricing advice helped inform the government's AN-ACC price for FY '24 and the increase in December. It remains our belief that IHACPA will provide a fair representation of the actual cost of delivering high-quality care in the residential aged care setting and will lead to additional funding in the medium to long term, including more reasonable levels of indexation. As we have discussed in the past, Regis completed an organizational redesign to refocus resources towards more eligible direct care. The redesign included the redeployment of some workers into eligible direct care roles and the recruitment of additional registered nurses to meet care minutes requirements from 1 October 2023. The mandate is currently 200 care minutes on average, including 40 minutes from a registered nurse. This will increase on 1 October 2024 to 215 care minutes, including 44 minutes from a registered nurse. Pleasingly, in quarter 2 FY '24, Regis achieved its target of total direct care minutes per resident on average across its portfolio. Labor market pressures remain in terms of availability of key employee cohorts, particularly registered nurses, given the ongoing global shortage, and we were slightly below the target for registered nurses. We have invested in additional internal recruitment capabilities and are recruiting high numbers. The increased Award rates are showing early signs of contributing to increased interest in aged care roles and reducing turnover. We anticipate improved workforce availability to continue throughout the year. Star ratings were a recommendation of the Royal Commission and were introduced in December 2022. Each residential aged care home is assigned an overall star rating comprised of 4 subcategories, being resident experience, compliance, quality and staffing. Regis has seen improvement in its average overall star rating from 3.11 in quarter 1 FY '23 to 3.32 in quarter 1 FY '24. The Royal Commission into aged care quality and safety found that the current Aged Care Act is no longer fit for purpose. Government has announced that the new act is aimed at creating a simpler, safer system, strengthening the powers of the regulator and creating more choice and control for residents. An incomplete exposure draft at the New Aged Care Act was released in December 2023, with the consultation period to conclude on the 16th of February. This was extended to the 8th of March 2024. Government expects that the New Aged Care Act will be legislated for a 1 July 2024 commencement date. Under the new legislative regime will be the new and strengthened aged care quality standards. The 7 new standards cover the person, the organization, care and services, the environment, clinical care, food and nutrition, and residential community. We were pleased to see the establishment of the Aged Care Taskforce last year, chaired by the Minister for Aged Care and to review sector funding arrangements. It remains the hope of all stakeholders that this process will deliver robust and practical recommendations that support the provision of sustainable, high-quality aged care services into the future. Interim recommendations were originally aimed for release in October 2023 and final recommendations in December 2023. As of today, this sector has not received an update from government as to when the report will be released. This delay is concerning for a number of reasons, including that the recommendations will inform incomplete sections of the draft New Aged Care Act to come into effect on 1 July 2024. And given that we are at the end of February, there are now only 4 months until the government's deadline of 1 July 2024. Deregulation of bed licenses will commence from 1 July 2024. Along with government's aim to provide greater choice to consumers, it is also expected to be an advantage to larger providers with development ambitions and access to capital. As opposed to the ACAS scheme, where the government decided where new builds could be located, deregulation will give providers flexibility to build new aged care homes in desirable locations. Whilst the sector has seen significant reform in recent years, many providers are struggling with the pace of reform as well as the additional reporting and compliance requirements. There is more reform required to ensure funding is appropriate, that there's an available and well-trained workforce, and that all Australians have access to high-quality, equitable and innovative aged care. The growing number of older Australians means that additional aged care places will be required as well as increasing services in consumer own homes. The Aged Care Financing Authority's ninth report on funding and financing forecast at that time that an extra 80,000 aged care beds would be needed by 2030 to meet the aging population demand. The Baby Boomer generation is approaching the age band where the sector expects to see a sharp uptick in the number of older people requiring aged care services. The oldest baby boomers are approaching 80 years of age. And the average age of entry into residential aged care is 83 for men and 85 for women with the range generally being 80 to 92 years of age. The higher numbers of people in the Baby Boomer generation will impact the aged care sector for around 20 years. In addition to the information I've just shared, current stock of beds across the sector is of mixed quality. It's estimated that the sector needs to replace around 25% or 55,000 beds due to age and outdated layouts. This implies 135,000 new and refurbished beds are required to be built, costing the sector somewhere between $50 billion and $70 billion over the next decade. Notably, in the last 4 years, only 4,000 new aged care beds were built across the sector due to elevated build costs, uncertainty around profitability and regulation of the sector as well as COVID. With the Baby Boomer generation approaching residential aged care, the need to provide a more premium service offering to meet future resident requirements is expected. This provides a real opportunity for high-quality providers with desirable sector purpose and well-managed teams to see improved occupancy performance and returns in the year to come. So moving now to our operational and financial performance. I'm pleased to report a strong result this half with growth in key metrics, including occupancy, revenue, earnings, cash flow and dividends. Revenue from services was $480.1 million, up 26.2% on the prior corresponding period. Underlying EBITDA was $52.1 million, up 15.5%, and net profit after tax before amortization of operational places, or NPATA, was $16.3 million, up 527%. The improved revenue was driven by higher occupied beds, additional government funding through AN-ACC increases, resident reassessments, the CPSM acquisition and increased resident income. Average occupancy improved to 93.6%, up from 91.1% in the first half of FY '23 and 92% in the second half of FY '23. Spot occupancy on the 22nd of February 2024 was 94.5%. Net operating cash flow of $151.9 million was up 145% on the prior corresponding period. This included $42.9 million of net RAD cash inflow, which was substantially higher than the $8.7 million in the first half of FY '23. We ended the half in a net cash position of $16.1 million, driven by the strong operating cash flow. Regis was very pleased to acquire CPSM on the 1st of December 2023, a premium residential aged care business in Southeast Queensland, comprising 5 homes with 644 beds. This is the first acquisition Regis has completed since 2019. The transaction aligns with our strategy to broaden our residential aged care footprint in high-demand metropolitan locations with quality homes that have been recently built or refurbished, have an excellent accreditation history and strong financial performance. The Board has declared an interim dividend of 6.28 share -- cents per share, 50% franked. Sorry, I'll just repeat that. The Board has declared an interim dividend of $0.0628 per share, 50% franked. This represents 100% of NPATA excluding one-off items. Our star ratings have continued to improve, increasing from 3.11 in quarter 1 FY '23 to 3.32 in quarter 1 FY '24. Average care minutes have also increased from 178.8 minutes in quarter 4 FY '23 to 210.3 minutes in quarter 2 FY '24. As already mentioned, the organizational redesign and increased recruitment efforts have assisted with the increase. And I'll now hand over to Rick to discuss further details on the results.

Thanks, Linda, and good morning, everyone, and thanks for your time today. We know it's a busy period for all of you. Just turning to Slide 9, the financial summary. As Linda has already pointed out, revenue from services was $480.1 million, up 26% on the prior corresponding period. There were a number of key drivers behind the $100 million increase in revenue from services. They include significantly improved occupancy, the transition from ACV to AN-ACC on 1 October '22; the introduction of a hotelling supplement of $10.80 per resident per day from 1 July '23; increased AN-ACC funding from 1 July '23 of $26.30 per resident per day; a further increase in AN-ACC from 1 December '23 of approximately $10 per resident per day; the acquisition of CPSM, which is a 1-month contribution in December; and additional resident revenue mainly through stronger indexation. Average occupancy for the period was 93.6%, significantly up from the 91.1% in H1 '23 with improvements seen across most states. This represents an average increase of around 130 residents excluding the CPSM acquisition, and I will come back to occupancy shortly. Whilst the increase in AN-ACC funding was welcome, it was largely absorbed by higher staff expenses, which increased by 27% or $77 million, primarily as a result of the following: The Fair Work value case, which increased modern awards wage rates by 15% on 30 June '23, added $23.12 of cost per resident per day; the annual wage review decision to increase minimum awards by 5.75% on 1 July '23; enterprise agreement wage increases, which averaged 3% to 4%; the recruitment of frontline staff to address the care minutes mandate; continued workforce shortages, especially for registered nurses leading to a stubbornly high agency usage and overtime; and of course, CPSM for 1 month. Apart from staff expenses, admin costs increased by $2 million, driven by the one-off strategic investment in our human resource systems. Occupancy expenses increased by $8.3 million, including the $5.6 million one-off landholder duty relating to the acquisition of CPSM. Notwithstanding these cost pressures, underlying EBITDA, which excludes the impact of one-off items and RAD imputation recognized under AASB 16, was $52.1 million, up 16% on H1 '23 and notably, the first time in 5 years that the company has achieved an EBITDA of in excess of $50 million. The underlying EBITDA margin decreased by 100 basis points over the prior period to 10.9%, mainly due to increased staff costs as a result of workforce shortages and increased care minute requirements. Depreciation was $22.4 million and broadly in line with the prior corresponding period's depreciation charge. Excluding noncash included interest under AASB 16, finance costs were $4.2 million, a reduction of $1.1 million against the prior corresponding period, driven by a reduction in interest costs on reduced levels of bank debt during the half. Excluding the after-tax impact of the noncash amortization of operational places, NPATA was up a sizable 527% to $16.3 million. At the bottom line, Regis reported a statutory net loss of $12.1 million. This was caused by the noncash amortization expense of $28.5 million after tax. Importantly, the operational places intangible asset will be fully amortized by 30 June 2024. During the first half, Regis generated $151.9 million of net operating cash flow, up 145%. The operating cash flow included $27.6 million of COVID-19 outbreak grants cash received and $21.5 million of remediation payments made to current and former employees under our payroll remediation program. Net RAD cash inflows increased from $8.7 million to $42.9 million as we continue to generate strong RAD sales from the portfolio, including a slight uptick in residents' preferences towards RADs influenced by the increase in the MPIR. Importantly, capital expenditure increased 62% to $30.5 million as the company invested $17.4 million during the half in the Camberwell greenfield development and continue to invest in the refurbishment of various homes as well as in scalable strategic technology platforms. Strong cash generation and improved underlying business performance allowed the company to reduce net debt with $16 million of cash in the bank at 31 December. Just moving to Slide 10. During the year, average available operational places across all homes increased to 7,067. Operational places now stand at approximately 7,600, including CPSM. Average occupancy steadily improved across the past 4 quarters, and at 93.6% for the half is well above the sector average. In particular, there was a strong uplift in occupancy in Queensland and WA. Higher occupancy reflects a number of initiatives, including a strong focus on care and service fundamentals as well as various sales and marketing efforts and remains one of the key levers of improving our overall profitability. The spread in occupancy rates across homes and jurisdictions continues to reduce with all states and the Northern Territory well above 90% average occupancy in the half. Spot occupancy at 31 December was also 93.6%. And as Linda has mentioned, further improved to 94.5% at 22nd February 2024. We would expect to maintain occupancy at 94% plus for the remainder of this financial year. Aged care revenue per occupied bed day of $386.40 was up 22% on the prior corresponding period. As mentioned earlier, this increase reflects improved government funding through the transition from ACV to AN-ACC, increases in AN-ACC of $26.30 per resident per day for 1 July '23, and again, $10 from 1 December '23 and the $10.80 per resident per day hotelling supplement from 1 July '23. Aged care revenue per occupied bed day in Q2 was $392.30, and for the month of December was approximately $400, inclusive of the increased AN-ACC rate from 1 December and CPSM's 1-month contribution. Aged care resident revenue per occupied bed day of $103.60 was up 11% on H1 '23. This increase largely reflects the basic daily fee indexation in March '23 of 3.7% and September '23 at 3.2% as well as higher DAP income due to the MPIR, which increased from an average of 6.31% to 8.15% in the current half year period. Aged care resident revenue per occupied bed day for the month of December '23 was approximately $105. Aged care staff expenses per occupied bed day increased 27% due to the matters referred to earlier. Aged care staff expenses per occupied bed day for the month of December was approximately $280. The total RAD balance has increased from $1.31 billion to $1.5 billion with the CPSM acquisition adding $150 million of RADs while the average RAD held increased by 4.7%. Moving over to Slide 11. This slide shows the impact of one-offs or nonrecurring items for the period. We have recognized $11.3 million of government grant income during the half, including $6.8 million of COVID-19 claims that relate to both FY '23 and H1 '24 and $4.5 million relating to the historical leave liability grant opportunity to recover 50% of the cost of increased leave entitlements due to the Workday new case. The impact of COVID-19 on staff expenses was greatly reduced following a substantial reduction in the number of outbreaks at our homes. COVID-19 outbreak-related expenses were $1.8 million, down from $3.5 million in the second half of '23 and substantially lower than the $13 million in the first half of '23. We incurred $7 million of one-off acquisition and integration costs relating to the acquisition of CPSM including $5.6 million of landholder duty which is not tax deductible. In addition, we continue to invest in strategic, scalable technology platforms, which included $2.6 million in new and upgraded human resource systems. We commenced our remediation payment process this half and paid $21.5 million to current and former employees, inclusive of on costs and interest payments. Due to the complexity involved in determining the amount and timing of final remediation payments, we continue to engage with our external advisers and regulatory authorities, including the Fair Work Ombudsman. Remediation payment process is ongoing and will continue through the second half of '24. The provision balance of 31 December was $21.2 million. Moving now to Slide 12, which covers net debt and cash flow. Strong cash flow generation has enabled net debt to reduce by a further $84.5 million from $67.6 million net debt at 31 December '22 to $16.9 million of cash in the bank at 31 December '23. There has been a strong conversion of EBITDA to cash of $117.1 million of cash flows from operating activities before tax, interest and RADs. This includes $27.6 million received in COVID-19 outbreak grants. In terms of investing in finance activities, the company paid a net $75.1 million for the acquisition of CPSM, increased its investment in capital expenditure of $30.5 million, and paid dividends of $22.5 million. With a materially stronger balance sheet, including over $330 million of undrawn debt facilities, Regis has significant capacity to fund its growth and broaden its residential aged care footprint through its development pipeline and material strategic acquisitions. Finally, as Linda has mentioned, the Board of Directors resolved to pay an interim dividend of 6.28% -- sorry, $0.0628, I've caught the disease, 50% franked, payable on 11 April '24. This interim dividend represents a payout of 100% of NPATA, excluding one-off items. Moving to Slide 13. As previously mentioned, the company's increase is CapEx investments of $30.5 million, up 62% on the prior corresponding period. Development CapEx increased substantially to $17.4 million, driven by the new greenfield development home at Camberwell as well as progressing designs and the tendering process for new greenfield sites in Toowong in Brisbane, Belrose and Carlingford in Sydney. Camberwell construction is nearing completion and fitout works are underway with opening on track for early calendar '25. The increase in refurbishment or growth CapEx includes some catch-up investment from COVID-19 times and is targeted at improving the resident experience. In line with our strategic plan, the company continues to invest heavily in scalable technology platforms, including human resource systems. These investments have the intention of improving the manager and employee experience. With respect to the resident profile on Slide 14. I won't spend a lot of time on this. We ended the half with 7,112 residents, which include CPSM. RAD generation continues to be a focus. And the high proportion of 100% RAD payers reflects various initiatives in place across each home. The increased number of RAD-paying residents was the driver of the $42.9 million net RAD cash inflows received during the half. We are beginning to see a slight shift in consumer preferences from DAPs to RADs. Should the MPIR remain at elevated levels, we may see a further shift in consumer preferences towards RADs. On Slide 15, a summary of the CPSM acquisition. On December 1, '23, we completed the CPSM acquisition consisting of 5 premium residential aged care homes with 644 beds in Southeast Queensland. All homes are 100% freehold. The net consideration was $75.1 million, excluding acquisition costs. And this represents a 5.7x FY '23 EBITDA multiple with Regis assuming $150 million of RADs on acquisition. Transaction costs of $7 million primarily consisting of $5.6 million of landholder duty. The CPSM homes continue to perform strongly with average occupancy of 96% in December '23. The integration effort is almost complete as the 5 homes transition to Regis' IT platforms and business processes. Finally, and importantly, we continue to actively seek out material EPS accretive acquisitions to continue expanding our footprint across Australia. With that, I'll hand you back to Linda.

Thanks very much, Rick, and I'll move now to the strategic update and outlook. So starting with some updates on our strategic priorities for the current year. Regis culture of care is core to everything that we do in terms of delivering safe, effective and integrated care for residents and clients. Some examples of initiatives to be delivered or being delivered during FY '24 include embedding and integrating a person-centered Regis model of care, leveraging a Montessori model of care; preparation to meet the strengthened aged care quality standards and improved resident outcomes through targeted nutrition and reducing unplanned weight loss. In terms of our people, as Rick mentioned, we're rolling out a new people management system to improve the employee and manager experience, increase efficiency and ensure accuracy and reporting compliance. Other initiatives around our people will include improving labor productivity in order to reduce agency usage over time, embedding a new learning development and leadership framework to identify key talent and succession plans and expanding employee wellness to enhance psychological safety at work. In terms of ensuring our future, we continue to make significant investments in the ongoing refurbishments of our existing portfolio and progressing our pipeline of greenfield developments. We are also enhancing our business intelligence systems, work practices and cybersecurity capability. The company continues to work on identifying material EPS accretive strategic acquisition targets to increase our residential aged care footprint. And we're maintaining a disciplined approach and seeking high-quality portfolios that will be earnings accretive. In terms of our growth program, we've updated previously that Regis restarted building activity in September 2022 with a greenfield development in Camberwell, Victoria. The Camberwell development will see a high-quality residential aged care homes constructed with 112 beds across the 4-level residents. This is an investment of around $40 million, excluding land with 110 rooms being single ensuite and 1 double room with ensuite. The development is progressing as planned. The structure is complete, and fit-out works are underway. Regis Camberwell remains on track to open to new residents next financial year. In terms of our other pipeline development projects, we continue to advance our plans and our program of works as investment returns and construction costs become more favorable. The company has 3 development projects in Toowong, Queensland; Belrose, New South Wales; and Carlingford, New South Wales, all with development approvals in place. Regis has a long history of greenfield development, and will continue to build contemporary fit-for-purpose and desirable aged care homes for older Australians with high care and service standards. Modern facilities with single ensuite rooms and larger suites will appeal to the Baby Boomer generation, which is fast approaching the age where residential aged care can be needed. So moving to our outlook. Regis continues to adapt to the rapidly changing regulatory environment and expect to benefit in the second half from the recent CPSM acquisition and additional government funding. Regis' strong balance sheet and substantial debt facility, together with the disciplined management of the business, supports the active pursuit of further material strategic acquisitions and greenfield developments to drive shareholder value. The Board and executive team are focused on improving the quality of care and services to our residents and clients, attracting and retaining the right people, investing in more efficient systems and processes, upgrading the quality of our existing homes and investing in growth through the additions of new internally developed homes or via acquisition. I'd like to sincerely thank each of our now 10,000 employees for their continued hard work, commitment and care that they provide to our residents and clients day in and day out. And with that, I'll now hand back to the operator, and we're very happy to take questions. Thank you.

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Sebastian Clemens with Jarden.

I just had a question on occupancy. So 94.5% was the spot for 22nd of Feb. Quite a bit higher than December at 93.6%. Just curious how that varies between the different portfolios or aged care homes in your portfolio? And then I suppose longer term, how high should we be thinking that might be able to get to?

Thanks for your question. I might take that one. Look, occupancy does fluctuate day-to-day, as you would know. And I think we did call out in a previous conference that we hit 94% several times throughout the first half of this financial year. Look, without going to a blow-by-blow description, the 93.6% to 94.5% comes from everywhere basically. I mean the reality is WA has always been a bit of a laggard and that continues to improve. Queensland has improved, notwithstanding CPSM, so separately the CPSM. Victoria improves. Some of the smaller states are also improving. And the point I tried to make earlier was that unlike previous half, every jurisdiction in this half was well over 90%. So we're seeing improvement across the board. In terms of your second question, I think we're on the record saying that we're targeting 94% for the second half. And I think I've said 94-plus. So we're hoping that we can hold this 94.5%, but it should be in the range of 94% to 94.5% for the half.

Yes. Got it. I suppose just longer term, is there anything stopping you from getting to that 95% to 96% mark, from a growth point of view?

Yes, yes, yes. I think given the current portfolio as it stands across the 68 homes, my view, for what it's worth is, somewhere in the arc of 94.5% to 95% plus is doable. Beyond that, I don't know. Look, the reality is we're working hard. If you had to ask me 12 months ago, could we get to 94%, I would have said no. But we are. So who's to say we can't do 96%, but 95% is the next target.

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Tom Godfrey with Ord Minnett.

It's actually [ Ben ] stepping in for Tom. We just have a few questions. So first, I'll touch on staff costs. You hit 210 care minutes. Could you provide a comment on staff cost growth? You mentioned high agency utilization for the past half? And how is that trending in the second half?

So what we saw, Tom, in terms of agency that we peaked around September, October and workforce shortages still, as Linda mentioned, still exist. But seeing some moderation in agency usage in November and particularly December. It's still there, but the rates of agency, I think through -- what we saw in January as well, tell me that we'll be running at maybe half of the hours in the second half that we had in the first half, which is significant in itself.

Ben, I might just add for you that's been [indiscernible] time. Yes. Sorry, Ben. I would just add for you. In terms of the care minutes target, so the average across the sector is 200. We get individual targets, so our blended average at 210 is around our target.

Great. And if we can touch on the aged care taskforce, you did mention, I think I missed a bit of that. Could we get an update on where we should expect this and your expectations of it because...

I wish I knew, Ben. So they missed the target of -- or they changed their minds actually about releasing the interim report in October. We know that government was provided with the final report in December. We were very hopeful that we'd see something in the third week of January. So look, your guess is as good as mine at this point. It worries me that the draft of Aged Care Act has an entire chapter missing on funding and financing, which we know is reliant on the recommendations from the taskforce. So look, we're all waiting.

Fantastic. And just one more for me before I jump into the queue. Plugging M&A, if you can give an update on the pipeline and maybe what size of acquisition you're looking at? Is it similar to CPSM?

We don't say no to anything, to be fair. So I'm not going to -- I won't give you an update on the pipeline, except to say we're talking to a lot of parties, knocking a lot of doors. In terms of size, look, not really something Board's discussed, but we look at anything from 1 home, which could be 100 beds, maybe to 2,000 beds. And a lot of those types of businesses out there.

Your next question comes from Craig Wong-Pan with Royal Bank of Canada.

I just wanted to ask about potential profitability in the second half, given you've got higher rates coming through from December, but then also, I guess, the increased wage costs required to meet the mandated care minutes. Could you just help us think about how we should consider profitability in the second half?

Craig, Okay. So there's a lot of elements here. So let's go back to first principles. The business has always performed better in the first half than the second half, and there's more days in the first half. I understand it's leap year this year. But you've also got more public holidays in the second half more importantly, and those public holiday rates are significant. So we shouldn't discount that. So if you look back in time, the split could have been anywhere between 55-45, 56-44 split of profitability. That hasn't changed. The difference this time around is you've got CPSM. So CPSM, and I think we've been on the record saying that CPSM for the 7 months should contribute around $7 million of EBITDA. So we saw $1 million of that in December. And you'll see around the $6 million for the second half is our expectation. Outside of that, the reason why I'm going to get a bit [indiscernible] around trying to answer your question is, agency still prevails. So agency costs are still high. Now they are lower than what they were in October, but they still remain stubbornly high, overtime remains high. We haven't seen any further relief from Aged Care taskforce, which we probably expected to see. And we've got enterprise agreements that still roll on and increases are high. So I can't answer your question except to say they're the factors that are playing into the second half.

And then next question, just on CapEx. I mean, the amount there was a bit higher than what I was expecting, and you mentioned there's been a bit of catch-up from COVID. How should we think about CapEx in the second half?

So CapEx in the second half, you can basically double -- at least double that amount. We still have a way to go in terms of cash. We're talking cash payments around Camberwell and we're up and running on the other 3 that we mentioned as well. And we're also increasing our level of refurbishment expense -- capitalized costs, sorry, across the business. So I would just double that, Craig.

You mean double that for the full year or you mean double that for the half?

Double the half amount, being the full year amount.

Okay. Got you. And then my last question, just on the new Aged Care Act. I mean I know there's kind of missing part of that still need to work at. But in its current form, I mean, how does that sort of impact your business like if that was to be implemented as it stands?

Yes. So look, the Aged Care Act has some really strong positive elements to it and then some worrying parts from a provider perspective. So in terms of the stronger elements, we all support stronger rights for consumers and a human rights type framework to provide assurance that everybody will get it, high-quality aged care. That relies on government being committed to always funding high-quality aged care and hopefully not seeing us in the -- in what we've experienced in recent history where funding was declining. And given most of the cost of staffing costs, providers were forcing to really an enviable decision-making territory, and we ended up with a Royal Commission. So I think those parts are really positive. In terms of the negatives, so there are large amounts of the exposure draft missing and we're only 4 months out. So it's very hard for me to take a view on such an incomplete document. We do have some concerns around the new duties and penalties, particularly the criminal penalties that are being suggested to be incorporated into the act. And I think all providers are concerned around what that will do in terms of workforce attraction and retention. So look, the peak body will put in a strong response. There are many providers who will also put in responses as well as other stakeholders. And then there are some sort of more minor elements that we think are probably just drafting issues that we expect would be sorted out.

Your next question comes from Vanessa Thomson with Jefferies.

I just wanted to go back on Slide 10. You spoke about aged care revenue per occupied bed day of 386 in the first half and I believe you said it was closer to 400 in December. I wondered what we might be thinking about for the remainder of FY '24?

That's probably the best indicator I'm going to give you Vanessa, the December number, because the reality is the way we understand it, the AN-ACC -- we won't see another increase in AN-ACC now till October '24. So I suspect that 400 is the best you're going to get to the second half.

Okay. And then on the CPSM Slide 15, you spoke about a net cost per bit of $117,000. In terms of potential acquisitions, do you have a hurdle rate for that? Or does it depend on the nature of the transaction? Or could you give us any color on that?

It does depend on the nature of the transaction and there's a number of things we look at, including discounted cash flows, EBITDA multiples, gross and net per bed. I'll answer it this way. It would seem to me that depending on who you talk to in the market, the going rate, the market rate net to bed, if you want to talk about that, is anywhere between 120 to 150 a bed. And it depends on the location, the profitability, et cetera. So that's a loose range, Vanessa, that we'd be using.

All right. And then one last question, a little bit qualitative. But given your comments on the aged care draft report and the missing chapter on funding and financing, do you think the government has the appetite to uncap -- allow contribution from residents? Is that something that we could potentially be seeing?

Vanessa, I'll take that one. So I think that there's been a lot of commentary in the media around what government may or may not be considering. An increased resident contribution certainly had been discussed. I think until we see the specifics of the taskforce recommendations, again, it's really hard to give you anything more definitive.

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Tom Godfrey with Ord Minnett.

Ben here again. Just one more for me. I missed that on the second half CapEx. Is that double the first half? And just on your development pipeline, I'm wondering if you could accelerate this if you get a positive user pays outcome?

Yes. Sorry, Ben, Linda here. So what we've said in terms of CapEx is that you can double it for the full year, the same as first half. And then sorry, can you just repeat your second question?

Yes, sure. With your development pipeline, we were wondering if you could accelerate it if you were to be given a positive user [indiscernible] outcome?

Possibly, possibly. I think we're very much wanting to see the recommendations that come out of the taskforce and what they build into the act. And absolutely, that can change decision-making.

Your next question comes from Sebastian Clemens with Jarden.

Just a quick follow-up on the AN-ACC pricing for FY '25. When are we supposed to hear that pricing outcome? And then secondly, is there any indication of what that percentage might be or what it should be in your view? Any comments there would be great.

Thanks. So I'll just answer that first question. So the annual wage review will happen 1 July. So I think it's deliberate this time around that IHACPA will provide the recommendation to government in August. That's our understanding. And at the new AN-ACC price will be set effective 1 October. Now whether we see some indexation in 1 July, we don't know, but the new price, as we understand it, will be in place by 1 October. I'm sorry, I missed your second point.

Just any indication of what you think that might be? Should we be looking at inflation? Is there some additional...

I think -- here's my take, and Linda may have a different view, but I don't think the -- I think whatever comes will be enough to cover the additional cost. I don't think there's going to be margin in that care funding when it kicks in on 1 October.

Yes, I would agree with that. So we'll get some increased funding to cover off the extra 15 minutes plus indexation. And the way that IHACPA will work and the way it works in hospitals is they take real cost data to actually inform the indexation. So it's no longer the model number that comes out of government. So that provides us with much more optimism around covering our care costs going forward. In terms of the other costs, which are the basic daily living and accommodation, those parts are really reliant on those taskforce recommendations.

There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Dr. Mellors for closing remarks.

Thank you very much. Thanks, everybody, for joining us this morning. I know that we have many of you to see and speak with, over the coming weeks so we very much look forward to seeing you and talking some more about Aged Care and Regis' results. Thank you.

That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.