Reliance Worldwide Corporation Limited (RWC) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the RWC Half Year 2021 Earnings Update. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Heath Sharp, the Group CEO. Please go ahead.

Thank you, and good morning, everybody. Thank you for joining us on the call this morning. This is Heath Sharp, CEO of RWC. And joining me is Group CFO, Andrew Johnson. I've got a few brief comments on the trading update we posted this morning, and then I'll open up to Q&A. The purpose of today's call is to provide you with a trading update for the 6 months ended 31st December 2020. Given the uncertainty surrounding the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, we've been keen to ensure that we kept the market updated on our trading performance throughout this half. Consequently, now that we have finalized our sales results for the half year, we are in a position to provide these figures to you, together with an indication of our operating earnings performance at the EBITDA line. I would stress that these figures are still subject to finalization and audit review. At a group level, we've recorded 13% growth in net sales. Reported sales have been impacted, of course, by the strength of the Australian dollar. On a constant currency basis, sales were 17% higher for the 6 months compared with the prior corresponding period. As always, it's worth stepping through the results at a regional level to more fully understand the drivers. Looking firstly at the Americas. Half year net sales on a constant currency basis were 22% ahead of the prior period. This has been very consistent throughout the 6 months of the half and in line with what we reported to shareholders at our AGM at the end of October. The U.S. market, in particular, continued to perform strongly, driven by repair and remodel activity, and we've seen that reflected in the sales growth through the retail and hardware channels in particular. Asia Pacific has also seen strong sales of 10% -- of strong sales growth of 10%. What is particularly pleasing about this is the fact that sales in Australia were up 8%. This is a stronger performance than we were anticipating at the start of the period and has been driven by positive trends in house prices, stand-alone housing construction volumes and repair and remodel activity in Australia. Intercompany sales from Australia to the Americas were up 13%, driven by the strength we've seen in the U.S. market. In EMEA, net sales on a constant currency basis were 11% higher than for the same period last year. This was driven by the recovery in volumes following the lifting of restrictions in the middle of last year, particularly in the U.K. around plumbing distribution and in-home plumbing activity. Demand has also held up in Continental European markets despite the increased incidence of COVID in the latter part of the half. From an operational perspective, in the U.K., we have been able to maintain our manufacturing and distribution activity despite the most recent lockdown. While the latest surge in COVID cases has put some pressure on our operations, we have continued running in the U.K. on a 24/7 basis. Of course, the health and safety of employees remains paramount, and we've taken all necessary steps in all of our operations in the U.K. and in fact, around the world, of course, to ensure that safe distancing, enhanced hygiene and cleaning protocols are observed, and this has helped us to minimize the risk to employees. Stepping back now to consider earnings for the period. The strong growth in top line performance has been reflected in our operating earnings with EBITDA expected to be in the range of $164 million to $167 million, up at least 30% on the prior corresponding period. As a result, our EBITDA margins at the group level will be up strongly, and we have recorded improvements across all 3 regions. This improvement in operating earnings has been driven principally by the strong growth in sales volumes that we've recorded in the half and the corresponding strong operational leverage. It's also been a function of the cost-out initiatives we have been undertaking that we've discussed with investors previously. The initiatives we announced a year ago have delivered on the cost front, and we are still on track to meet the target of $25 million in annualized cost savings run rate by the end of FY '21. From a cash flow perspective, we have recorded another strong period of cash generation, and this has been applied to repay bank debt. Net debt has been reduced by $76 million, resulting in the leverage ratio of net debt-to-EBITDA lowering further to 0.88x from 1.57x a year ago. The first half of the 2021 financial year has undoubtedly been a strong period for RWC, and we are pleased with how the company has performed in demanding circumstances. Given the continuing uncertainties in all of our markets because of COVID-19, we would caution against extrapolating the first half sales performance for the full year. We would also note that copper pricing will negatively impact earnings in the second half, and currency translation impact may also adversely impact reported earnings. Now it would be remiss of me not to recognize the efforts of RWC personnel around the globe. It really has been a challenging period. I'm really proud of the efforts by all of our people to keep themselves and their colleagues safe and healthy while meeting a higher demand than originally was anticipated. Our teams have executed at a high level and have delivered a solid result. So let me conclude at this point and open up the call to questions. We'd like to confine questions to the topics we've covered in today's release. When we report our results for the half on February 22, we'll then be in a position to discuss our business performance with you in more detail and also to talk to our expectations for the second half of FY '21. But Andrew and I are certainly happy to talk through our performance in terms of top line and expected group earnings, operating earnings for the half ended 31 December. So we can get into those questions this morning, if you wish. And with that, I'll open it up.

[Operator Instructions]

Peter Steyn from Macquarie. Sorry, I wasn't too sure whether I should be talking here. Sorry, a quick one just on copper, your comments in relation to the extrapolation of the result from potential headwinds. Could you, at this juncture, commented all on mitigation strategies and how you're thinking about that?

Look, I can touch on it. Certainly, we'll get into more detail at the end of February. Peter, clearly, the movement in copper price is not a surprise to us. We've been watching it for a while, I'm aware of it. We are quite well advanced in our mitigation planning and action. Certainly, we need to adopt a different approach based into different markets and different channels and based on whether the overall market is moving and product mix and so on. But fair to say that we're well underway with that. And we'll be able to sell that out in, hopefully, some more detail in the next sort of 4 or 5 weeks when we get back together.

And then maybe just a very quick one on what you reported out of Australia, the 8% improvement in sales there. Could you hone in a little bit and give us a bit of a subject perspective of what you saw there? Was it largely a repair and remodel space that came alive for you or new construction that really delivered an improvement? And then is that a detached or a multi-residential story there in terms of what you've seen?

Sure. The -- yes. Okay. So the local market, it was a combination of repair and remodel and I think also just a little bit of investment in the home, similar to the what we've seen in the U.S. Residential new construction benefited as well, particularly in single family. Multi-family is a little more challenging right now, but the pickup and the stimulus that was applied by the government has certainly helped us through the half.

Positive that you've seen the benefit for that already. I'll leave it there.

We will now take our next question from Brook Campbell from JPMorgan.

Just a question, if at all, you'd be able to comment on how demand trended in January. I appreciate the month hasn't finish yet, but things move growing quite quickly at the moment. So if you're able to provide some sense of how sales have trended in January to date across the 3 divisions that will be fantastic.

Sure. Look, no real surprises. I would though qualify that by saying it's a period of a lot of noise. With the holiday period and locations in certain part of the world, it's always a little bit hard to read. But at this point, we've seen nothing that's surprising to us based on how the first half track.

Okay. So I guess just to dig into that a bit. I guess, in the U.K., clearly pretty harsh environment at the moment there was lockdowns, et cetera. You're not seeing any sort of dampening in demand at all there in recent weeks.

Look, I'd say the U.K. felt -- from a trading point of view, the U.K. felt unchanged for the last few months. So in our statement, we talked about when the initial restrictions ease in midyear, and you'll recall back in April, May period, the whole industry essentially shut down. Once that ease, the industry got working again, and it's felt really similar the whole time. So even though there has been recent shut -- lockdowns in the U.K., trading with the distributors has felt the same and the amount of activity that the plumbers were undertaking has felt the same. So no real impact that we're seeing there.

Interesting. And then just last question around cash flow looked in very strong for the half, and I would have thought it would be some sort of working capital build. But if you're able to comment on -- maybe for Andrew, actually, just if there's been any change at all in working capital terms and whether or not that cash flow number and bakes in a working capital inflow in the 6 months.

Yes. Thanks, Brook. I think if you recall, when we spoke in August that, historically, we would expect cash conversion to be about 93% and that we did feel like there would be an inventory build and first half cash conversion would fall slightly below that. And I think that we can stick with that comment. I don't want to get into details around working capital because we're still working through the accounts, but I think you can keep that expectation that we gave you in August. You will see an inventory build.

[Operator Instructions] We will now take our next question from Keith of MST Marquee.

A quick follow-up on the pricing question from Peter earlier. There have been some pricing notices out in the U.K. of around 5.5% price increase. And in North America as the wholesale channel of about 2% to 10%. So what I'm just keen to understand is, given those price increases are probably in line with some of your peers and other products within similar categories, have you had any feedback from the distributors that you've publish those price increases, too, as to whether they will be accepted, particularly in EMEA or the U.K.? I know North America is probably a different discussion with the large retail distributors, but perhaps if we can start off with the distribution channels in EMEA and also the wholesale channel in North America and the feedback that you've had from distributors that would be useful.

Sure. It's kind of, I guess, a similar comment for Paul, but I'll start with the U.S. is it's got ways to go. I mean this -- the good news is, as you noted, is that the industry generally is recognizing the challenge with pricing, and it's a pretty broad-based discussion that's underway right now. So that's a good thing, of course. The process has to play out. I think it's fair to say we're in the middle of it as are our competitors, where the final number falls is subject to negotiation on a -- based on circumstances and timing by individual customers and so on. Also, it has to play out. And we very quickly get into sort of commercial and confidence issue, too. So there's only so far that I can step out at any point, particularly now given that it's a live activity underway right now. I'd say the U.K. is a little more advanced. There were activities underway before the end of the calendar year. And I think they're a little bit more closely -- close to being sort of baked in at their final levels, but again, not 100%. So I don't really want to get into specifics at this point. We'll have some more clarity certainly at the end of next month. I would say, as we've talked about a lot over the years, the U.K. is a pretty disciplined market with a pretty well-established process. And this year, it seems to be playing out the same as it has in previous years. So COVID, notwithstanding the industry, is sort of doing what it's always done, which is reassuring.

And I guess, given your peers and your comment around broader recognition with price increases. And it feels at least at this stage that there should be some price increase across all geographies and channels. Is that a fair statement? Or is that something that you're not willing to pass comment on until the first half result?

I'd certainly hope that would be the case. Copper has moved quite a bit. There's some dollars at play here for everybody. It would be appropriate. I think, that there was a broad move there, and I hope that's the case. We -- let's see it play out.

Okay. And one for Andrew around potentially capital management. Your leverage metric is now at 0.88x, below the 1x mark. Quite clearly, cash generation is strong. Demand is strong. So that will likely fall going into the full year, even on that 90% cash conversion basis. Andrew, is there a prospect that you pursue M&A more aggressively? Or have there been any discussions with the Board on capital management at all?

Well, let me just say, Keith, that given the uncertainty in the market and the potential with this pandemic in third and fourth waves, we're quite comfortable where we are right now at the 0.88. Certainly, as that develops, we'll look at all options and discuss those with the Board. And one thing we will do is come back in February with a more fulsome discussion around our capital management framework and what priorities we see for the business.

And perhaps, Heath, I'll just jump back to the trading update question. Exiting FY -- sorry, exiting calendar 2020, I think, in the month of November and December, the comps in each of the region or the sales comps in each of the regions look like they surpassed the 20% mark in both months. It's hard to see how that momentum has really started. And I know you spoke about it with Brook's question earlier today. But is there anything on the horizon, which makes you feel like that momentum has eased off? Or is it kind of steady as it goes in the near term?

Was that -- Keith, was that specifically in relation to the U.S. or the Americas?

No. No. Just across each geography. Just looking at your comments at the AGM and the outcome up to the AGM out to now. It's a simple linear extrapolation, but looking at the periods between them being November and December. It seems like the like-for-like sales growth has been north of 20 in each of the geographies. I mean, I appreciate the comments that you've made for Brook and Peter. Just wanted to question whether there are any signs of that easing off.

Look, in the Americas, it was pretty consistent across the whole period. And in the near term, that looks as though that will continue. I mean there's still a question is that's a big shift in the volume in the market, for what period will that be sustainable? The retailers themselves and a lot of the retail analysts are still pretty bullish about that. We watch it really closely. But that has been pretty consistent for a good few months now. I'd say the U.K., the half for the U.K., if you recall, we pretty much pulled that ship into flooding dock in April, May. We really slowed it down almost to a full stop. So we had to turn that around, and it's quicker to shut it down than it is to start it up. So if we look through sort of June, July, August, we were still sort of ramping up a little bit there and the industry was ramping up. So I think the -- it wasn't completely linear in the U.K. for the half, but I think it feels like it's settled to a reasonable level now. The big question mark, there, of course, is COVID going forward and does the current lockdown become more aggressive to the point where it does start to impact the distributors and plumbing activity in the home because that's a question mark. At the moment, it doesn't look as though it will. So it's sort of keep on keeping on. Australia is a little bit different again. It seems ramped up in the second quarter, if you like, second half of the half, but that ramp-up was more really volume-driven for the U.S. market. So to meet the demand in the U.S. and also the inventory build that Andrew mentioned just before, certainly, there was a lot of -- we've ramped that again, we've ramped that back up early in the half, and we were shipping a lot in the second part of the half in Australia to the U.S. So that's a bit of a catch-up inventory build that's not necessarily -- it's not underlying market-driven in Australia. It's more U.S., but that the underlying market in Australia is, again, it seems to be moving along quite well. We -- which is great. I mean, trying to predict what it will be in 2 weeks, 2 months is a tough one. But at the moment, it seems to have some reasonable momentum.

[Operator Instructions] We'll now take our next question from Simon of Jefferies.

Heath, Andrew, happy new year to you both. Spent a lot of coverage on copper and cost increase and price increases. And I think between Keith, and Peter and Campbell's, we've covered most of it. I just wanted to confirm my understanding that the big box retailers in the U.S., they are January year-end, correct? And so just with the -- that this current period, is this a period of truing up the rebates as well in this current quarter, in this March quarter for the U.S. so there will be an impact? Will that be a -- say, if you like, a headwind in the quarter just with the rebates, given the strength of sales in the big boxes for this -- for the year just call?

Simon, this is Andrew. Hi, can you hear me?

Yes, buddy. Got you. Yes.

Those rebates at the retail level are typically paid quarterly. So we generally don't see a true-up this time of year. No.

Okay, cool. So there's no sort of business as usual.

Yes. Yes.

Okay. All right. That is fantastic. And then just in terms of the timing, I'm sort of gathering from the discussions that pricing is -- pricing discussions are well advanced, but certainly not finalized. And I think we've talked before, Andrew, that the period in which we may have 8 copper costs in the half, the higher copper costs that are comping could be 4 or 5 months. Is that still the way to think about it? Or are you a bit more optimistic about the pricing outcomes to recover some of the copper cost a little earlier?

So look, there's certainly always a lag between when you start seeing the higher copper costs come through. I think we've talked about the lag that we see in our business due to the supply chain of about 6 months. Will our mitigation efforts catch all of that within FY '21? Hard to say, but likely it will not. But I wouldn't want to give a concrete number on that right now. But as Heath mentioned, that's something that we can come back to in February.

We will now take our next question from Lee Power of CLSF (sic) [ CLSA ].

Is it possible to give us an idea of the level of cost out you actually achieved in the half? Or how far along you are into that $25 million?

Look, I'd say it's as expected. The -- I forget the exact number we're saying. So Andrew, we were -- the run rate is 25%. We're expecting to get more than half of that for the year, and you wouldn't expect you'd get half of that then in the half. So that's, I guess, in order of magnitude, but it's in line with what we expected. No, it's not sort of dramatically better or worse.

Okay. And then, I mean, I understand the comments around extrapolating performance. Is there any way to break down in the half margin around one-off cost savings versus sustainable cost savings versus volumes, just to kind of give us an idea of the relative proportions and how we should be thinking about margin going forward?

Yes, for sure. I mean we're up to our eyeballs in that right now in terms of pulling all that data out and trying to get it in a form that we can sort of set out to you, so you can understand it more because, look, there's a lot of moving parts right now in the different regions at a different state. So our -- we were pretty fulsome in our disclosures at the year-end. We'll certainly try and follow that. It's not even a little bit more at the half -- at the end of next month. I understand there's a lot here that I think is really quite helpful if we explain. So yes, we'll certainly have to do that.

Okay. But too early today, it sounds like. Do you have any comments on it?

Yes. Look, I mean, I've seen the first draft to some of the bridges and so on, and I mean, gosh, there's a lot to work through. I mean, it's -- so yes, today is it's too difficult to get into the detail of it. I mean, today, we were just keen to try and give a view similar to what we did in September and October of just how we're going on the revenue line, step 1 -- step beyond that with a bit of insight into the earnings. That was the objective for today. So hopefully, that's sort of helpful to an extent.

[Operator Instructions] We'll move on to our next question from Peter Wilson of Crédit Suisse.

I might just follow that one up on the cost base. At the Investor Day, you mentioned that the SG&A spend had fallen due to restrictions around travel and pull back on marketing and some customer initiatives. Can you comment whether that continued in the December quarter, i.e., whether for the first half, SG&A was down?

Yes, it followed a pretty similar trend in the second quarter.

Okay. And should we interpret a lot of that reduction as effectively COVID-related or kind of a nonrecurring reduction due to those restrictions on COVID? And as such, do you expect the reversion to come through in the second half and into FY '22?

I think that's a really good question. Yes, certainly, some of it is directly COVID-related. I think some of it will come back in the second half, not all of it. I don't see, for example, Andrew and I getting to Australia in the second half. I mean, so the -- and a whole lot of similar travel won't happen. So I'd imagine that a lot of that travel expense will stay low in the second half. I think though that some of our marketing and exhibition expenses will start to pick up again in the second half. So some of it will come back, but certainly not all of it. And again, that's something we were doing to try and see if there's a way we can present that so that you can get a little bit of a handle on it. So we haven't got that detail to hand today, but we'll work on getting that, too.

We'll now take our next question from [ David Pace ] of [ U.K. Capital ].

Along similar lines, perhaps a little bit more general. Given that this is sort of COVID mark to with the northern Hemisphere, having had the benefit of several months, what sort of behavior are you seeing from the supply chain in general? I mean, we heard a lot of businesses just stopping and watching and waiting to see what's on the other side, given now most industries have the benefit of hindsight. Do you think that's having an impact at all?

Yes, definitely. So if -- and the best example is in the U.K. So what happened back in April, May, June time, there was a really conservative reaction and basically, a lot of the wholesalers shut down to wait and see what happened. And then it took them a while to get there processes in place where they move to click and collect where you couldn't go into the branch, you could drive through to pick up staff and had to text ahead or call ahead or whatever. Back in some months before it was clear, it got into place and it settled down. When the sort of new lockdowns happen right towards the end of calendar '20, at some whole of sales got to the point of opening branches, so people were going into branches. But when the new lockdowns came down, they just swung straight into those overnight into the processes they had done previously. So they didn't really miss a beat as sort of COVID to, if you like, came through. So -- and that's continued to be the case. And look, I think the other difference is not just the distributors, but the contractors themselves. Back in the early stages, the contractors stopped calling on customers as well, and some customers didn't want the contractors in the house. For better or worse, that's now got to the point where people -- the plumbers are working as normal. People are taking the plumbers into their house. And again, that seems to have be operating a level, and people have got their hygiene and masks and whatever else. Protocol is in place. So that's sort of carrying on. And I would say, related to that, an interesting piece of data we just saw recently with regards to the retailers in the U.S., it's early days COVID, DIY was a big driver of their extra volume. It seems to have shifted over the months, and the pros are actually growing or comping at a better rate through the retailers in the U.S. now than DIY. They're both strong. They're both good, but the pros have sort of come back. So that does suggest that the industry has come to grips with COVID, one way or another, and is working through.

Yes. I mean, it's almost as if there's a recognition that it might be here for a while, so we can't just pull up stumps. We're going to work through it.

I think so. A few factors at play. I mean, when you get into pure repair, you have to have it. If water heater fails, you've got to replace your pipe leaks or you've got to fix it. So there's an element of that as well as people coming to groups with it. I think the other factor at play is that as people are spending more time at home, they're sort of spending more money on their house. So it's becoming more of a focus of their disposable income, if you like, than eating out or travel or whatever else. And I think that's certainly driving the market in the U.S. and I think in the U.K. a little bit as well.

We'll now take our next question from James Brennan of UBS.

Heath, you sort of just answered my question just then. But I guess I was just wondering, when you look back on the last 6 months, relatively consistent sales growth in the U.S., call it, 20-odd percent. Just wondering how you look back on it in terms of how much of your sales are going to same-day plumbing repair versus DIY versus remodeling. Have you seen a noticeable shift between those 3 sort of subsegments? And with the expected, I guess, eventual return of commercial restaurants and cafés coming, I know it hasn't been a key area of focus for you previously. But what potential does that return when they turn their taps and pipes on, have ability to help sustain this level of growth?

Yes, sure. So look, DIY could be either repair or remodel. It's sort of not a segment or a category on its own. So -- and as I just said is that the DIY did pick up, whether it be remodel or repair, quicker in the early stages of COVID. It's still there, but the Pro has come back a little more strongly. I think it's fair to say there's a been a little bit of a shift to remodel over repair, this whole idea of people investing in their home. It's adding an office in the basement because you're going to work from home longer. If you're going to add an office down, then we will put on a bathroom as well. I mean that's where we're picking up some extra volume, I believe, and that's a remodel activity more than a repair activity. So I'd say some of that pickup is more on the remodel, but it's across both DIY and the Pro user. To the commercial question, it's a really good one. Commercial certainly was a little softer than the sort of residential repair side in the last half, and that's reflected in what happened with our product ranges. So SharkBite was really strong in the half, which makes sense when you consider it's more residentially focused and it's more stronger DIY, and both repair and maintenance and remodel is SharkBite did really quite well. Whereas the more commercially focused products, so particularly the HoldRite, the integrated installation solutions didn't grow as fast as SharkBite did in the half. We -- though its commercial will pick up, we suspect, during '22, and those products will pick up as well. So there's a lot of interesting factors at play certainly during the half.

Yes. Got it. And then I don't mean to talk about forward-looking statements pretty much. But when I look back to the FY '20 year, the December half was sort of characterized by low revenue growth in the U.S., call it, 1%. And then in the June half of last year, so I think you were getting 11% revenue growth because the COVID impact really only started in the June quarter. I'm just wondering how you think about that impacting your sales this year and -- sorry, I don't see I think was going to imagine. This time last year as well, in the June half, you had promotions that I think were weighted towards the June half year. Can you just talk about the outlook for promotions over the next 12 months and whether there's going to be any or whether you have those discussions to set them up for the next 12 months?

Certainly. So look, I think if you remember back to the year-end presentation, there was one page in our deck. I think it was Page 16 from memory, where we set out the makeup of the U.S. sales growth, and there was market growth, there was above-market growth, there was -- the third category were initiatives, promotions and then the new one was COVID. So the makeup of the U.S. sales for the half just finished is going to have all of those same bars in it. They'll have slightly different percentages in there. The market growth is certainly above-market growth. We did actually get a little bit of initiative, promotion activity in the half, pretty small. And that was more promotional activity as opposed to new product rollouts, but there was a little bit there. And obviously, a COVID impact as well. I think the important factor there is the makeup of our growth is the same. We've got this unexpected COVID bonus, I guess, from a demand point of view. But the rest of it, the market growth, above market, striving to get above market and then promotions was there this half and will be there again in the second half of '21. Again, as we said during the course of last year is last -- or the first part of this financial year, we don't expect promotions to be big this year. There's conversations underway. We might get a couple of things in, in the second half, but I think they're more likely to impact '22 and going forward. The focus right now really is just day-to-day volume. I mean 20% plus up is taking a big effort by us and our customers, particularly in an environment where you're dealing with inevitably labor shortages on any given day because people are quarantining or not coming in that day or whatever else. So it's -- it was a tough half. There was nothing glamorous about what we had to do or what our customers had to do during the half. Just keep your head down and get on with it. I think this half is going to feel a lot like that, but there are just enough conversations going on there that I think lead to some good promotions and initiatives that will help us out in '22 and going forward.

[Operator Instructions] There are no questions in the queue right now. While waiting for the questions and queue, I'm handing it back over to you, Phil.

Thank you. Thanks, Laura. Heath, Andrew, there are 3 questions online. The first one is, I would be interested in hearing your thoughts on the impact of the Australian government's homebuilder scheme has had on the number of new homes built, which has underpinned our Australian sales growth.

I think it's fair to say it's had an impact. If you recall back in August, September and even October time, we were talking about waiting for the downturn in the Australian market. And I was relaying to you the chatter, if you like, that we were hearing from contractors and wholesalers. Everyone was expecting it was going to downturn in October, that it was going to downturn in November, and it hasn't. And you've got to conclude that those stimulus activities help drive that demand. Now some of the chatter is still that it will turn down. Every day we get up, we see what the order book looks like, and we go about filling it. But I think it did have an impact over what our expectation was as we entered the half, for sure.

The next question is what is the key COVID-related risk to earnings in the second half?

That our government in one of our key markets enforces an incredibly strict lockdown that impacts construction, that impacts distribution and that impacts the ability of a plummet to enter a house. I mean if that happens, that's pretty dramatic. I would think what we saw in the U.K. is trying to -- that would be pretty tough. That for sure, certainly, not just for us, for everybody. I think trying to put some rose-colored glasses on that situation is what we saw in the U.K. is when there was that really tight shutdown in April, May, June time, it generated pent-up demand. There was genuine repair work that didn't happen that subsequently did happen. So any really strict lockdown would generate that again. Maybe being really optimistic is the more time people spend in their house, lockdown, the more inclination they seem to have to spend on their house because they think they're going to spend more time in it. So if I wanted to be incredibly optimistic, a lockdown may -- a really strict lockdown may promote more remodel work once you come out of it, but I think that would be the single biggest impact that there could be COVID-related in the second half. Look, I mean, beyond that, it's a drastic event. We're dealing with COVID on a day-to-day basis in our facilities with our people, trying to keep them healthy, trying to keep them safe. Our costs -- for the half COVID-related costs, and again, I think we'll set this out in more detail in February, but I mean it's into the 7 figures, well into the 7 figures, what it's costing us for protocols and that's probably without factoring in absenteeism and so on. And looking at some numbers on our U.S. business the other day, we had 1 part of the factory that we're trying to operate with a 20% less than the normal workforce because on that particular day, the number of people who were quarantining or concerned that they'd come into contact with someone who had COVID and therefore didn't come to work. And we do want them to come to work, if they come into contact with someone who have COVID. So we're trying to juggle, in some cases or in some given days, a 20% increase in volume with a 20% reduction in workforce. I mean you've got to scramble to deal with that. So I don't want to minimize that. We're dealing with that on a day-to-day basis, and I'm really impressed with what our people have done to cope with that. But that's going to be ongoing for the entirety of this half, I would think. So I guess we've accepted that we're going to have to deal with that for the half. So that's, I guess, how I view it.

And the final question from online is, are you seeing any shift back towards the wholesale channels from the big box retailers in the U.S.?

I would say that the shift -- any shifting that occurred was early days in the pandemic. It was back sort of April, May, June time, where there was -- the wholesalers in the U.S. did shut down quite hard. I think there was some movement. The Pros from wholesale to retail, I think that stabilized. I think some of those Pros have continued buying from retail, but I think most of them are also either back to or buying as well from wholesale. So I think that shift has occurred, and it's stabilized. And all channels now are up. And I think the COVID boost with people investing in their house is benefiting all of our channels in the U.S. right now.

Thank you. No more questions online.

Okay. Well, assuming there's no other questions that queued up on the phone and no more online, I think we will draw that to a close. So look, I appreciate everyone's time this morning so that we could provide this update. Look forward to catching up with everyone again in around about a month's time, and we'll no doubt get more deeply into copper pricing and related issues. So understanding that's top of mind and believe maybe it's top of mind for us as well. So we'll be well prepared to deal with that in a month's time. So thank you very much, everybody. Have a good day.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. Stay safe, and have a good year ahead. You may now disconnect.