Repsol, S.A. (REP) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Hello and welcome to the Deutsche Bank’s Depositary Receipts Virtual Investor Conference, dbVIC. My name is Zafar Aziz from the Deutsche Bank team. I'm pleased to announce that our next presentation will be from Repsol from Spain. Before I introduce our speaker, a few points to note. Please submit your questions in the questions box to the right of the slides. Also, all of today's presentations were recorded and can be accessed via the Deutsche Bank website, adr.db.com. At this point, I'm very pleased to welcome Álvaro Visús, Senior Investor Relations Officer of Repsol, which trades on the Madrid Stock Exchange under the symbol, REP, and in the U.S. on the OTCQX market as REPYY. Over to you, Álvaro.

Welcome to everybody joining Repsol here today online. Let me begin by thanking our organizer, Deutsche Bank, for this virtual ADR conference, a milestone indeed for all the companies that are in this market. My name is Álvaro Visús, and I work within the Investor Relations department at Repsol. Today, I'm going to convey who we are, what we are, and what we are going to become in the future following our latest strategic update. However, before we begin the slide deck per se, let me turn your attention to our disclaimer as it is shown in this slide. During this presentation, I may make forward-looking statements based on estimates. Please take into consideration actual results may differ materially depending on a number of factors as indicated in the disclaimer. First, in this slide, you have the index. But first, we are going to focus on who we are at Repsol, our company overview. We are a multi-energy company, a multi-energy provider born, raised, and headquartered in Madrid, Spain. But nowadays with a global spin that comprises 4 business verticals integrated all around -- all along the energy value chain. Let's name it, the upstream, industrial, customer and low carbon generation. Taking into consideration our 2023 data as a template, our Upstream production stood at around 600,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, with 2/3 being gas and 1/3 being crude oil. We had 1.8 billion barrels of proved reserves, which 3/4 were gas and 25%, 1/4 was liquid. Industrial, the second vertical, comprises several businesses, highlighting 6 refineries, 1 in Peru and 5 in Spain that operate as a single 1 system in an integrated system with more than 1 million barrels of capacity per day in total in all of our refineries. Three chemical complexes located back-to-back to our industrial facilities and are growing from a thriving trading business. Then we have the third vertical, the customer at the bottom left part of this slide, mainly located in Iberian Peninsula. Remember, born, raised, and headquartered in Madrid, Spain. So in the Iberian Peninsula, we offer a multi-energy approach, and that's both our main strategic line and our key competitive advantage to more than 24 million clients, 7.9 million, practically 8 million of which are digital. We are including more than 4,500 service stations worldwide, a growing retail electricity and gas business in Spain, LPG #1 position in Spain and a lubricants business. And finally, our fourth vertical, the newest of them all, the low carbon generation. At the end of 2023, of course, we had 5 gigawatts in total installed capacity, 2.8 of which were renewable. On top of that, 3.3 gigawatts of renewable under construction, and our pipeline of in excess of 60 gigawatts. Here, in the following slide, we summarize Repsol's achievements delivery for the past 3 years, because at the end of the day, it is true that we need to convey who we are today and what we are going to become. But let's speak a little bit of what we have done and delivered to the market, to shareholders, and to the society. So in this slide, we are going to summarize our latest 3 years. We achieved a solid financial performance and operations across all the 4 divisions of Repsol. It has been a period of cash generation and earnings, delivering more than EUR 20 billion of cash flow from operations, EUR 21.4 billion to be exact, and EUR 14 billion of adjusted income over the last 3 years, with a net debt reduction to almost EUR 5 billion and gearing from 25% to 7%. Furthermore, we distributed more than EUR 6 billion to our shareholders, and we acquired around 20% of outstanding capital. 310 million shares that were redeemed for this period. Our net CapEx for the past years, for the past 3 years stood at EUR 11.3 billion. So we have covered who Repsol is, a multi-energy provider remember and what we have done in the last 3 years. Now we must look towards our future. Our current strategic update spans between 2024 and 2027. For the next 4 years, we maintain our approach towards the energy transition. We are convinced that, that's the strategy for us. We are embracing the decarbonization process for the world, of course but also because we see a clear opportunity of profits and growth for this company in these new decarbonization scenarios that are ahead of ours. A road map to 2027 based on the accomplishments of 6 strategic pillars that are shown in this slide, that will be key to success in energy transition. The fundamental commitment being shareholder distribution, providing certainty and predictability to our dividend to our shareholders, but there are more in the case of more profits alongside the greater return of capital, of course, with capital discipline, with a corporate that is accompanying our businesses all around the way and, of course, always towards a net-zero emissions pathway in which we are on track. Right now, our enterprise capital allocation framework to 2027 from 2024 will be based on 3 main levers. The first one is shareholder distribution, our priority. Our net CapEx, second one, between EUR 16 billion and EUR 19 billion, remember, net CapEx for the period, and maintaining our current credit rate, BBB+, Baa1, alongside a strong balance sheet, the one that we have today. All these figures are provided under 2 scenarios, the main one, the one that is based on -- all these figures in these presentations are based on the central scenario with Brent prices of $80, $3 MMBtu and $8 refining margin indicator in 2024 and $70, $3.5, and $6, respectively, as average between 2025 and 2027. But we also present a more scenario, the one that we call lower scenario with Brent at $80, Henry Hub at $3, and running margin at $8 in 2024, and an average 2025, 2027 of $55 per barrel, $3 per MMBtu and $4.5 per barrel, respectively. Even under this scenario, this lower scenario, Repsol's uses of cash will adapt and the company will be able to cover its net CapEx, remember, EUR 16 billion to EUR 19 billion, in this case, EUR 16 billion and EUR 18 billion financing and cash dividend commitments for the period. And speaking about cash dividend commitments, let's go right into it. As previously mentioned, our first commitment for 2024-2027 is to allocate between 25% and 35% of our operating cash flow to our shareholders, including dividends and share buybacks. We are going to distribute EUR 4.6 billion between 2024 and 2027, guaranteed in any scenario from EUR 1,095 million in 2024 already achieved, because we have already paid that, growing at least 3% per annum, reaching EUR 1,197 million in that slide and that table at the top part of the slide, you have exactly the amount of million of euros that we are going to pay to our shareholders every single year since today, 2024 already paid, to 2027. On top of this, on top of this EUR 4.6 billion, in a central case, we will devote up to EUR 5.4 billion to buy back, to acquire shares for those shares to be redeemed, reaching a total of EUR 10 billion, up to EUR 10 billion in total distributions in just 4 years. During the first -- during the 4 years of this strategic update that I mentioned. In 2024, this year, we have increased the dividend, cash dividend by 30%, around 30% to EUR 0.9 per share as it is shown in the lower table on the slide. Next year, we are going to pay EUR 0.975 per share, I'll repeat, EUR 0.975 per share. Why is that? This year, we have already redeemed, under the share buyback commitments, 40 million shares in the first half. And we are amidst a process to acquire and redeem before year's end another 20 million shares, taking into consideration that reduction of shares, that reduction of 60 million shares under the amount of cash dividend is committed and is set and [indiscernible] EUR 1,128 million in 2025. Our dividend is going to be EUR 0.975 for the following year. Of course, always maintaining a credit rating compatible for gearing between 15%, 1-5, and 20%, 2-0, and always with flexibility to ensure dividend commitments and CapEx. Alongside the commitment to maintain credit rating, our balance sheet, our shareholder distribution, net CapEx will play a key role here at Repsol with a total figure of EUR 16 billion to EUR 19 billion for the 3 years period, with a total gross CapEx between EUR 24 billion to EUR 26 billion, as it is highlighted on the right part of the slide. After portfolio management, after low carbon generation asset rotation and after project finance, our net CapEx is going to stand between EUR 16 billion and EUR 19 billion. This figure of net CapEx is going to be written on some and this plan is going to provide us opportunity to address the rich set of opportunities in Repsol's portfolio. It is worth noticing that in excess of 35% of our total CapEx for these 3 years period is going to be devoted to low carbon businesses, both in, I would say, renewables, renewable fuels, hydrogen, e-mobility and so on, as we are building new attractive platforms going forward. On next slide, what we are going to see is, lastly, our commitment towards net zero. Please bear in mind that Repsol was the first company in this oil and gas business to commit to our net zero emissions in 2050, the first one with clear milestones and intermediate decarbonization targets for 2025, 2030, 2040, and reaching net zero in 2050. Those objectives, those initial objectives were even tightened first in October 2021 and then in 2022. Forward-looking speaking -- forward-looking, we are maintaining these ambitious objectives. During this decade, the carbon intensity indicator reduction target is going to be reduced by 15% in 2025, taking 2016 as a baseline, and 28% in 2030. And that's going to be achieved using a wide range of technologies and businesses in some way, in line with the vision that we have in Repsol about the energy transition. But that's not just it. We have presented also a display of our objectives in this sense in these towards net zero emissions, in terms of net zero emissions, in terms of the Scope 1, 2, and 3 absolute net emissions, in terms of methane emissions reduction, and of course, a zero routine dry by [ 2030 ]. For the breakdown by business is needed to understand fully integrated capabilities of this company, of Repsol. So let's start with the Upstream. That's our first vertical. Repsol owns an international portfolio in world-class basins, including some of the U.S. stock plays as well as positions in America, North Africa, the United Kingdom and Indonesia, focused on Indonesia play. Last year, we incorporated an investor called EIG in our business with 25% of this vertical as a minority stake. And with this agreement, we brought in an investor that is a reference that is fully aligned with our vision. Since 2021, we have transformed the business into a more profitable one, this Upstream business, exceeding the key targets that we said in our previous data that resulted in an attractive and resilient portfolio that we will sustain our future production. Between 2021 and 2023, the Upstream division generated a free cash flow of EUR 7.5 billion, almost 3x the target defined for that period. And that was driven by our strategy of value over volume and a more favorable environment. And I will repeat myself, value over volume. For the next strategic update, for the next following 4 years, we have defined 3 main strategic lines. The first one is unconventionals in the state. Our position in both the assets of Eagle Ford and the Marcellus, where we want to continue to improve our operating model to produce breakeven that we are targeting between 180,000 and 200,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day for the period. Then in our conventional assets, in our conventional part of the portfolio, we'll prioritize higher-margin barrels, low carbon footprint barrels and the successful delivery of products. As you may see, we highlight a worldwide spin of projects that multiply by more than 2 the operating cash flow or the cash from operations per barrels via our portfolio, our legacy portfolio. The breakeven of projects of crude that you are seeing right now on the slide is lower than $50 per barrel. The payout is lower than 6 years. And the production of all these new projects are adding plus -- sorry, plus 95,000 barrels in 2027 and plus 135,000 in 2030. All those projects are already with an FID back to. For the future, we expect an increase of 15% of our operating cash flow from EUR 2.9 billion adjusted 2023 to EUR 3.3 billion in 2027, a 30% increase in the cash from operations, mainly through these new products that I was mentioning before, of course, and always a reduction in our emissions by 33% and our production average between 2024 and 2027 of in excess of 550,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Now we should go and we are going towards our second business vertical, our industrial. Our industrial vertical is a business comprised of several businesses, actually. The first 1, our refining, we leverage on ourselves on one of the most competitive and integrated refining systems in Western Europe. Our portfolio combines best-in-class assets with leading operational expertise and integration that is reflected in every benchmark, every benchmark published in Europe, compounded refining systems. The average cash flow from operations between 2021 and 2023 was 50% higher than we initially targeted for this division. And we delivered a cumulative EUR 1.4 billion of free cash flow every year, doubling initial expectations. Almost 40% of that improvement was a consequence of increased competitiveness from our part. Now for the horizon to 2027, we have identified 5 key line actions with a focus on maximizing the value of the conventional business, while developing the new low carbon platforms that I was mentioning before. To achieve this, we aim to lower breakevens with efficiency, decarbonization of operations in refining and, of course, in petrochemicals as well. We are also increasing the development of our trading business to optimize the value capture in refining of our low carbon assets. Chemicals will lever on the expansion of the Sines complex as a differentiation project that will add 600,000 tons of polyethylene and polypropylene to our portfolio. We are transforming our legacy sites, changing the feedstock of our legacy sites, producing new products, more value-added products, renewable fields that we maintain as we are maintaining the pace for the decarbonization. We're also stepping up trading activities, increasing our portfolio for geographies and products. Between 2024 and 2027, this business is expected to deliver more than EUR 10 billion of cash flow from operations, a 25% increase over the period and between EUR 4 billion and EUR 5 billion of free cash flow. This growth is going to be based on reducing breakevens, as I was mentioning before, the expansion of our trading operations, the chemical business upgrade and industrial low carbon platforms that are going to add, already in 2027, EUR 600 million or EUR 0.6 billion of operating cash flow. We are going to invest a figure between EUR 5.5 billion and EUR 6.8 billion of net CapEx towards this business during this period. And between EUR 2 billion and EUR 3 billion of that is going to be located to industrial low carbon. When we speak about low carbon industrial, we are referring to those new platforms that are going to decarbonize our portfolio, that are going to put renewable molecules to our society and that are going to push for the decarbonization of our society. We are speaking here that we have objectives in terms of renewable fuels capacity from 1 million tonnes in 2023 to 1.5 million to 1.7 million in 2027, reaching 2.4 million and 2.7 million in 2030, generating renewable hydrogen which we are the main producer, the main consumer in Spain from zero renewable hydrogen in 2023 to 0.5, 0.7 gigawatts during 2027 and 1.8 and 2.4 in 2030. Growing our biomethane, a new business, to 1.3, 1.5 terawatts per hour in 2027 and 2.1, 2.3 terawatts per hour in 2030, and of course, with a push in our secular chemical business. All in all, we are expecting a Scope 1 and 2 reduction of 1.6 million for the period 2024, 2027 and 2.1 million in 2024-2030, mainly due to our efficiencies, investments that are going to allow us to decrease our carbon footprints. Going to walk to the customer. We have today more than 24 million clients in the Iberian Peninsula. We are the lead energy retailer in Iberia with an attractive commercial offer. We are the #1 energy brand for customers and consumers in the country. And in 2023, the division delivered a record EBITDA of EUR 1.1 billion, with EUR 0.9 billion of operating cash flow and a sustained return of capital employed of above 20%. For 2024-2027 strategic horizon, we will work to strengthen our core division in this business, which we -- that actually it is a backbone of this division on the sales of cash flow. That's the marketing, service stations, both in oil and in non-oil part. But we are expecting to multiply by 1.3 the non-oil margin and the operating cash flow generation during this period from 0.9 to 1.2 and in the case of the non-oil margin for practically EUR 104 million to EUR 108 million. To achieve this, we are going to maintain our market share and margins by investing in differentiation and digitalization. We will invest in non-oil growth, as I mentioned, accelerating our efficiencies and deliver a unique offering of 100 renewable fuels produced in our own refineries. We expect by 2027 to have around 2,000 of our service stations sell 100% renewable diesel in Iberia Peninsula and become also as a leader. We are also aimed to be multi-energy advantage in a growing position in the retail power and gas. And we have a unique value proposition in this sense, because we combine every single molecule and every single electron that the society needs in just 1 offer, 1 bundle offer. Our in-house developed app in Spain, Waylet, is also one of the most used apps in the country. In 2023, as I mentioned, we practically reached 8 million clients. Moving towards our latest vertical, the low carbon generation vertical. We need to speak about the situation of this vertical right now. At the end of 2023, we have a capacity of 2.8 gigawatts, just pure renewable. During 2023, we installed 1.1 gigawatts of renewable capacity diversified geographically both in the Spain, U.S.A., Chile and Italy, diversified by technology, both in solar, wind, hydro. And we have a pipeline in excess of 60 gigawatts, mainly in our core markets in Iberia and also in the U.S. And as a guarantee of maximum discipline and investment decision, we have combined business growth with a strong capital discipline. Investing only in projects with more than 10% of equity IRR. And that's something that we have already demonstrated that, that's something possible, and that's something feasible, because we have already rotated 1.3 gigawatts of our assets, delivering exactly between 13% and 16% equity IRR through several levers that are shown in this slide, generating a higher value for our assets in this business. Going forward and for the coming years, we continue seeing a positive long-term outlook for renewables reinforced by supporting policies and growing decarbonization commitments. Our business has an ambitious, but very well-grounded plan, to deliver profitable growth, higher than 10% yield in this business. By the end of 2027, we expect to reach between 9 and 10 gigawatts of renewable capacity, because we are more focused on value rather than gigawatts, on equity IRR rather than gigawatts. Between 3 and 4 will come from the U.S.A., in which we are building on the U.S. platform. And already, we have 800 megawatts. 4 to 5 will come from Iberia, which we have already an achieved position, 1 from Chile and up to 0.5 gigawatts from a position in Spain, again with a breakdown by geography and by technology, onshore wind, hydro, both normal, compounding and solar and storage. This structure as we are internationally with [indiscernible] focus in the U.S., our business is going to use project finances, covering between 60% and 70% of the capital needs and the sale of 50% of the project, thus reducing Repsol's financial exposure in this market in the U.S.A. to 15% to 20%. Our proposed strategy will allow us to optimize the net capital exposure in the 2024-2027 period from EUR 8 billion to EUR 9 billion gross CapEx to project finance, through rotation and divestments to a net CapEx between 3 and 4. It is true that our capital employed will go up, practically doubling between 2027 and 2023 from EUR 3.9 billion to EUR 8.1 billion. Now here at Repsol, we are extraordinarily confident that this is strategic 2024-2027 represents a compelling, an attractive investment proposition. We want to develop our story of value growth, and we will deliver attractive and committed shareholder distribution with the cash dividend growth guaranteed under any scenario. We will maintain a strong balance sheet that is going to allow us to guarantee that these distribution commitments while maintaining our credit rating, and we will increase the cash flow generation of our businesses with higher competitiveness. Here, on this slide, you have the main economic metrics that will sustain our cash and business growth for the period. From the adjusted income growing by 25% to an operating income -- sorry, to an operating cash flow that grows by 24% from EUR 6.4 billion to around EUR 8 billion in 2027 or to EUR 6.8 billion under the lower scenario. So a 24% cash from operation growth. And of course, reaching EUR 9 billion to EUR 11 billion of free cash flow under our central scenario, and EUR 7.9 billion under the lower scenario, both of those combined. And those scenarios are uses of cash are going to be able to cover our net CapEx and financing and the cash dividend committed. Now before we end this slide there, I would like to convey a couple of final thoughts. The first one, coming to the beginning. We are -- Repsol is a multi-energy provider. We offer every single molecule and every single electron that the society may need under 4 verticals that are integrated all around the way. From the upstream towards industrial, the customer and the low carbon generation, we offer a bundled offer combined an integrated offer to our society, to our shareholders. And what we are going to go for the future is, we are going to extract more value from our legacy assets. We are going to create new platform, profitable new platforms, and we are going to decarbonize to be a net zero company in 2050. Thank you so much for attending today this Repsol's presentation. Again, thank you, Deutsche Bank, for organizing this conference. I think we are out of time. So if you have any queries about this presentation of Repsol, please let us know. And the team, we will answer you as soon as possible. We will be delighted, so thank you so much, and have a nice day.