Rico Auto Industries Limited (520008) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the Rico Auto Industries Q3 FY '23 Earnings Conference Call hosted by S-Ancial Technologies. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now hand the conference over to Mr. Vijay Gyanchandani. Please go-ahead, sir.

Thank you. Welcome to Rico Auto Industries Q3 FY '23 Earnings Conference Call. From the management, we have today Mr. Arvind Kapur, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director; Mr. Kaushalendra Verma, Executive Director; Mr. R K Miglani, Executive Director; Mr. Rakesh Sharma, CFO; and Mr. B M Jhamb, Company Secretary. Now I request Mr. Arvind Kapur to take us through the key remarks, after what we can open the call for the Q&A session. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Good evening. My name is Arvind Kapur, and I welcome you all to the today's conference. The third quarter has been as per what we had expected, except 1 or 2 changes which came about with our merger that had happened. I'll talk about that also. The third quarter normally, the month of December especially, is a little slow because most of the OEMs, they go on -- they have a shutdown and for a week or 10 days there is almost 0 production. And also in the market because of the model change, in India we regard this year as a model change year from '22 to '23. So people have a tendency of buying lesser vehicles at the end of the month. So that's the reason that most of the OEMs also shut down their plants. So by and large, it was as per expectations and the -- both in the domestic front as well as in the export front. In the domestic front, now what we see for this particular quarter is that the 2-wheeler is a little challenging, and we are hoping that it passes that. And in the last meeting we had with the Finance Minister, Madam Sitharaman, we did request her, that 2-wheeler is a common man's vehicle. And I think we requested that the GST should be brought down, which I don't think she's going to agree to well. But she says I agree with you, but I don't know whether I'll be able to do it. So we are still pushing it and through the Ministry, through our Ministry as we are trying to push that. And with that, we hope that the 2-wheeler sales starts picking up. The export front, I had mentioned to you earlier that the -- it has become a big challenge. And about a year back, we were airfreighting etc., maybe because the shipment time that was being taken from India to the U.S. as well as Europe, that has almost tripled. And in the case of U.S., there was a total jam at the docks and also the railways are not picking the materials [indiscernible]. So we've had some of the challenge and so we had a lot of material on the sea so that we don't have to airfreight any further. So we did push a lot of materials. And now the situation is fairly normal, and the ships are reaching in time. And we have excess stock in both our -- in our warehouses in the U.S. as well as in the Europe. And so we have slowed down. We don't want excess inventories there in our warehouses. So we are stabilizing it and bringing it back to whatever was normal. And so for this quarter, we will make less shipment even though the pickup from our customers is as good as normal. In fact, in some cases, they have picked up a little more. In the Europe, surprisingly, the market is still good and despite the war zone. And the other problem that we faced was that euro had crashed. And so we did have a lot of issues as far as -- from INR 79 crores, INR 78 it came down to about INR 70. And today, it has again bounced back and thank god for that. So that was one challenge that we did face in the last couple of quarters. And we are hoping that this would remain stable now, and there won't be any surprises that we would see. On the -- we -- in this, the results that we declared now, it is on the 5th of January this year '23, that the NCLT gave us the order of a merger of RCL to Rico Gen 5. And because of that, as is the appointed date was also April 21, we had to reinstate all the previous quarters, and that's why you see some changes that would have happened in the previous quarter, and that had to be done. And we announced it, okay. Very good, okay. I just got the news that apart from the first merger that I was just talking about RCL to Rico Gen 5, that was played on the 5th of January. Just a couple of minutes back, the other merger that we were talking of RIL to Rico Investment, Rafa and Rasa with Rico Auto, that has also been cleared. That has just been cleared about half an hour back, and hopefully, we'll get the order very soon now. So that's new news that we are sharing with you. You guys are the first guys we are actually sharing with you and we were hoping that this would happen actually last month, but it didn't happen, but very happy about that. So because of the merger of RCL to Rico Gen 5, we had to reinstate all the previous quarters, and that has been done. If you look at the commodity prices, they are fairly stable now. And so you will also see that in the results that our material consumption has actually come down, raw material consumption has come down and we are hoping that this would remain in this bracket for a longer period, and that will help us. On the EBITDA front, we had assured you that we will be in the double digits. We have come into the early double digits, and you will see an improvement even in the next quarter, in this current quarter and also the quarters that will come in the future. We had given a target to you all that -- that is what we internally want to achieve. We are fairly confident that we will achieve that. And -- yes, and the other thing is that, all the investments that we had been making in the past, all these -- they were materialized, and the plants -- the start of production has taken place in all the projects that were -- that includes the Toyota and Maruti and even the other customers. All the projects are in place now, and we are in the process of ramping up. And so the capital acquisition has also started taking place. On the defense side, there is -- there are many projects that we have in hand that we are bidding for. The one project that we had mentioned to you earlier was on the fuse -- fuses. And we are fighting for it for the last almost 4 to 5 years, but there's a ray of hope, it was getting delayed and delayed, now I think they are again going to call all of us for testing, and that is the latest information that we have. And earlier, we were told that they're going to ask the public sector undertaking should do it only. But since our protest, they have accepted the fact that they will also put us through the testing. So we are very happy on that, and we are confident that once that happens, we will fare much better than the other companies that have actually given their fuses. So very happy on that. Besides that, there are other projects which are going on with the Navy, with also the Army, and there are very, very interesting projects which are coming up, and we are participating in most of them now. On the manpower cost, the cost has gone up slightly, and that is partly because there was -- we have tried to replace the older people with the younger people. And so there were some costs and clearing the accounts of the people who are expensive and replaced by younger smarter people. So we have done that, and that's the reason that was a one-time cost of INR 1.5 crores additional, which has happened in that. And in the finance cost also, there was an additional INR 1.5 crore, mainly because of this euro translation volatility. So there are INR 3 crores, which is an additional expense which has been incurred this time. Sales is as per what our expectation was, and we are hoping that this quarter also the sales will remain good. The car industry is doing very well. The commercial vehicles are doing well. The exports are doing well, and the off-road vehicles also well, the challenge is only the 2-wheelers and we hoping that they would also start picking up. That's it for me. I think we can open up for questions.

[Operator Instructions] The first question we have today is from Aman Vij from Astute Investment Management.

My first question is on the export side. So if you can give a rough break-up in terms of geographies? Also, what was the sales growth in different geographies for Q3 as well as 9 months? And also what kind of growth are we seeing for the next year? If you can talk about that on the export side.

Just one minute.

Well, the Americas and Europe, what would be the difference?

See between -- if you split up U.S. and Europe, it is almost 50-50, not exactly 50-50, but almost 50-50 in the export front.

And 9 months, sir, what was our number this year versus last year? And Q3 also excludes.

Just a minute, let me just try to pull out the information. This quarter, if you compare it to last year, it was INR 121 crores last year and last year quarter, and this year, it is INR 125 crores, for this quarter.

Sorry, how much?

Okay. 9 months last year was INR 329 and 9 month this year is INR 382 crores.

Sir, for Q3, what was the number? Last year was INR 121 crore, this year, I couldn't get the number.

125.

Okay. So the question was regarding this only. So there was not much growth. In H1 may be we saw very good growth.

Let me -- there's another company which also exports, one of our subsidiary. So the final figure for the last year and this year is, last year was INR 333 crores, and this year INR 387 crores in consolidation.

Sure, sir. My question was related to Q3. There was not much growth that has happened. If you can talk about the same…

Our Q3, you must realize that Europe is actually like September, you will have France, which is for October, so that then Germany goes on leave and then they go on leave October, November, they keep on going to leave. So that happens and then the month of December and is low because of the last few, Christmas etc., etc. So the overall pick up normally is less in the last quarter.

And sir, for Q4, what kind of growth are we expecting in exports as well as for the full year FY '24, next year, what kind of exports number do you think we can reach?

I think next year, we had given a target of -- just a minute, we had mentioned the figure -- just a minute. Next year, we expect about INR 600 crores plus.

Okay. And Q4 sir, are you seeing any uptick or is it still slow in exports?

I mentioned to you that because of excess of stocks, we might be shipping that from India. And because we are trying to reduce our stock there, but the -- let's say, we are pushing, and let's see what happens.

Sure, sir. My second set of questions is on the defense side. So it was good to hear that the Ministry of Defense has allowed the private players again to do the test. So sir, when do you…

They had actually slowed down the private players, even though the tender was met only for the private players.

Yes, you had explained last time. Sir, wanted an update on the timing. So when is the trial expected to start and end and are we expecting any orders this year?

This year, on the fuse front, not very certain because now the -- they have agreed on the trials. And the trials take place both in the summer camps as well as the winter areas. So that is where the snow is and there is also -- the desert is. [Foreign Language] So how they're going to handle that? That is what we are questioning them also. And because of that, we don't think that's delayed, but the Army needs this very urgently, that's the other side of it. And -- but this is a further a seasonal concern. But besides this, we are expecting some other orders, there are some various shooting ranges, et cetera, that we are bidding for, and we are hoping that those will come through.

Sir, so combined, do we expect any sales in defense segment in FY '24, that is next year or only in FY '25, we'll see some sales?

[Foreign Language] but by and large they will be in next year only.

And next year, you think INR 100 crores, INR 200 crores, INR 100 crores plus in this?

I'm not saying anything because still we have things in hand, we are not saying anything, because Amy is very unpredictable, things can get delayed and over delayed. The tender was supposed to come out almost 4 years back, and this is only delayed by 4 years.

Sure, sir, just one last clarification. Despite the -- apart from Army, doesn't other organizations like CRPF and Ministry of Defense also have requirements for these fuses or only Army is the possible customers. So we can't…

No, no, no. We are talking about the Navy, Airforce and the Army, we are talking all 3. And of course, CRPF and others, those also they have the requirement for these ranges and all, that also we are discussing. [Foreign Language] mainly because of the fuses, but we are also talking about the fuses with the Navy.

Okay. But trial will be common for this Army, Navy and all those things which will happen?

No. They all have their own independent trials.

Okay. The biggest order is expected from Army only, whenever it comes?

Yes, yes, yes. Yes.

And if there is delay, can we start trying to sell to CRPF and any other organization apart from Army?

CRPF doesn't buy, it is only the Navy, which buys fuses, CRPF doesn't buy.

Okay. And sorry, maybe requirement will be for how much compared to Army, like half, 1/4 or…

It is probably 1/3 of that. We were trying to see the ratio there, it's not 1/3, 1/4 of the army.

Sure, sir. These are the questions from my side. I'll get back in the queue.

But the value-wise, it might be more because their demand is a little tougher and the prices are more -- so that the…

The next question we have is from [indiscernible] from ICICI Securities.

Yes, sir. Am I audible?

Yes, yes, absolutely.

Yes, thank you for the opportunity and congratulations for the great set of numbers. Sir, firstly, my question is on our overall top-line growth. So for FY '23, when we talked last time, we were having targets of around 29% growth. So if I compare it from FY '22 around INR 1,800 crores of revenue. So we were targeting around INR 2,400 crores of revenue for FY '23 and roughly around INR 3,000 crores for FY '24. So if I look till 9 months, it is roughly, I would say, INR 1,700 crores odd of revenue. So is it possible for us clock around INR 700 crores of revenue --?

Well, see, the first time we had set INR 2,360 crores, INR 2,350 crores. That's what we had said, but consequently, we did say INR 2,400 cores and because we were trying to push our team that we should sell -- we should market as much as they can. And that time we were also thinking that the 2-wheeler industry will also pickup. So unfortunately, that is not picking up. And because we have all the capacity, no investments are required for the 2-wheeler industry, if they double the production, we can start supplying from the next year. We are still working on it, we are not giving us, but INR 2,400 cores still remains the target. But we'll be crossing INR 2,300 crore in any case. That's the minimum that we project.

Okay. And we will be sticking to around INR 3,000 crore for FY '24. So there's no change in that?

Next year, there's another -- yes, that is the target for next year. And we have the visibility to a large extent on that.

Okay. Great to hear, sir. Secondly, sir, my question was on margins and it's good to see around 300 basis points of raw material and a gross margin expansion on a quarterly basis. So have all the commodity benefit has been recorded in this quarter? Or still there is some effect pending or some compensation we have receive from customers?

The fluctuation in the commodity price is not very high now. [Foreign Language] that is on a daily basis, so we are taking average of the 3 months and utilize. [Foreign Language] but it will be -- it's very minor compared to whatever is happening already.

Right. So basically, we are going to be around somewhere 70% to 71% our RM to sales exposure and going forward?

I didn't get you. Please repeat.

So we assume our raw material to sales ratio to remain in the range of 70% to 71%?

Yes, around the same range, yes, yes.

Okay. So we are comfortable at achieving 10% plus margin going forward, right?

Yes, yes. No, we are -- our target is in more -- in the next quarter, you will see even better results.

Okay. So we'll be targeting around 11% to 12%, right?

Well, we'll do better than what we've done now.

Okay. And lastly sir, my last -- my another question would be content per vehicle. If you can share with -- if your desired average content with respect to our 2-wheeler in EV that would be great?

Come again, please?

Content per…

It's difficult to find content per vehicle, I'll tell you a reason for that. And in some places, we would be 20%, in some places, we'll be 1%, 2%, 5%, there is no vehicle-to-vehicle and model-to-model. So very difficult to find the vehicles content. You are correct, to finalize, I think they're making a mistake by defining it, it's not possible to define it. We are supplying components to Maruti and Maruti vehicles are at about INR 5 lakhs, INR 7 lakhs, onwards, 10 lakhs, then we supply parts to BMW. BMW vehicles are all INR 1 crore and plus, so how do we define what percentage of -- so that becomes another challenge. Even though the parts are always double the price of our parts that we supply to Maruti and others. No, it becomes very difficult to define that. But we are focusing a lot on electric, and it will notice that the new orders that have come in is about INR 1,500 crores. And now it's a mix of electric as well as IC engines, both are -- we are getting orders for both. We're not leading either. Our focus is IC engines -- our focus is, sorry, electrification and electric vehicles. But as the IC engines [Foreign Language].

Right. Sir, lastly, can you share order book or any order base for the Q3. So last year our order book was around INR 1,350 crores. So is there increase in that?

I just said that, the order book now is INR 1,600 crores for the year.

So increases nearly INR 250 crores for the current quarter or…

Yes, yes. Yes.

The next question we have is from [indiscernible].

I have a few questions. Firstly, if you could help me understand, you said that exports for the quarter were at broadly similar levels as the last year same quarter. So if you can let me understand that, is it primarily inventory which is causing this impact, because we've been sort of expecting that the export business is on a strong trajectory and that has won new orders. So what exactly is driving a y-o-y slower growth in the export business? And in that context, for FY '23, what is your expectation now for the export business?

The month of -- the last quarter, in any case, for export is always on the lower side, if you look at the average…

Actually, I'm just comparing it y-o-y. So I'm assuming that the seasonalities exist in both the periods. So I'm just trying to understand in that context, what is driving this slower growth?

The last quarter, in any case, a little slow, but we are also adjusting for the inventory that is surely there because we had almost 3 months of stock in transit and also in our warehouses. And so we were trying to reduce that because we are required to maintain 1 month stock there. And so we had almost 3, in some cases, 4 months of stock, which is in transit. And so we want to cut on that absolutely. A couple of reasons. One is that when it's lying in the warehouse, the iron part after, say, 4, 5 months, there's a tendency of catching rust. So we don't like any rejection or any rework to be done there in the warehouses there. So for that reason, that is one reason. Then aluminum can pick up white rust, that is the other phenomenon that is there. Even though our packing is good for 6 months, but that possibility is always there. It depends on how much time it spends on the sea, that is a very important role. And so that is one. And number two, why do we need to pay extra for warehousing costs that -- for 1 month, that is -- we have settled. But beyond that, we pay extra, and so we wanted to reduce our cost there also. And so that is what is happening. This is one reason. But one thing, October, November, December is always on the lower side, every year.

So has this adjustment to a 1-months inventory period being achieved in exports in the quarter 3 numbers?

No, no. Now we keep on running a plant to a lower level of production, and we keep on shipping also, but we are shipping lesser than before. And we are hoping by March end we will employ most of the inventory.

Okay. Okay. So basically…

What happens, we ship both iron components and aluminum components. Now if at all, there's a shortage of any component and if the -- both the line gets freeze, and not -- and we are unable to deliver to the customer, we are required to airlift. So the choice was that -- so what we did was, we took priority on the iron component, we started shipping, pumping more of the components on the containers and sea, so that they'll get there in time, because they are almost 3x to 4x the rate of the aluminum component. So in case we are required to airlift, rather airlift aluminum component than the iron component. So that is one focus that we had. So iron component, we actually had 4 month [ faster ], so that we are depleting now. The aluminum was 3 months, but we will deplete that also.

Okay. So for FY '23 -- I mean FY '22, we did about INR 455 crores of exports. What is the number that you expect for this year now and for next year?

We've already done about 408 -- one second. We are already close to INR 400 crores. And for the quarter also, I think that there would be 500, yes. And next year, we are expecting INR 600 crores.

So next year, we are just talking about INR 600 crores now on the export business?

Yes, INR 600 crores plus exports.

Got it. Got it. So next question I have is on the contribution of all the key segments in terms of 2-wheeler, 4-wheeler, what was this contribution in this quarter and how has that growth in each of these segments?

The 2-wheeler is around 31%, 31% plus, if you take everything it comes about 33%. The 51% is on 4-wheelers, that is the cars, autos, commercial vehicles is about 10% and others was about 6% [indiscernible].

Got it. Got it. And can you share either the growth or the similar percentage the same quarter last year?

I can send it to you, that -- we can do that.

Okay. That is helpful. And how much would have been the EV contribution in this quarter?

Beg your pardon?

The sales which come from…

EV -- it would be 12% plus. And next year, we should be around 17% next year. And like I mentioned earlier, we are very close to getting another very, very large order. And hopefully, by the next time -- March is the deciding date and we are getting very aggressively on that. So hopefully, in the next quarter, we might have to tell you something.

Got it. If you could also update about the scale up that we have been able to achieve with Toyota and what is the outlook for that business next year?

Toyota is very good, because, in fact, they are ramping up -- whatever capacity they had asked us to put, we did put up those capacities and then they wanted us to increase it by another 50%. And what the dealer we are getting is that we want even more capacities on that. And we have -- what we are trying to do is, trying to accommodate most of the capacities in the current machine investments that have been done. But minimal investment that would be required to be done. So we're looking at that -- we are working on that possibility so that we are able to achieve that. And Toyota is going full scale and they -- we were asking them as to why don't they jack up these capacities earlier and why are they delaying it. So they said that they have a problem with the magnets, which are imported, either from Japan and/or from China. And getting delivery of those definite delivery materials last year they are ramping up. So that is the challenge we are facing. So 1 or 2 other components are challenges they are facing, which comes from Japan. So we are ready to blast out, but they are having issues with that. The demand for their -- is huge and because they could to start using it for both -- for Maruti vehicles as well. And so it's a very -- we are hoping that they are able to solve the issue.

Got it, sir. Sir, and lastly, in terms of the operating performance. So in this quarter, while the revenue has come down Q-on-Q because of the seasonality, you were still able to deliver double-digit margins. So -- and gross margins have also improved nicely. So if you could help understand that now going into Q4, while you're expecting commodities to remain same and the leverage because of revenue being higher, can you actually deliver 12% plus kind of EBITDA margins? Or are there any factors which could have some neutralizing impact on the margins as well, which I'm missing?

Yes. Therefore, our internal target is more than 12%, but not for this year, but we -- that is what our internal target is. And we did mention that in one of the conferences that our internal target is above 12%. And we hope that we can keep it in this quarter, but I don't know. But we are assuring you that we will be in the double-digits and better than their results we get today. One other point I'd like to make here is that we made [indiscernible] clutch for 2-wheelers and earlier, we were selling mainly to Hero. But now we do send to the aftermarket as well and we are negotiating with all the other 2-wheeler makers in India. And we are hoping to get a share of our business from there. It's a cycle. And as this item starts coming in, our margins will start improving automatically. So we'll go further up, even in the 2-wheeler industry and despite the challenges of 2-wheeler industry.

The next question we have is from Aditya Sen from RoboCapital.

I'm already glad that the -- most of the things that we are doing is already in line with our estimates and our guidance except for the 2-wheeler and the euro part. I just wanted to know if the margins in the upcoming defense segment, is it going to be something different than what we are already doing now, that is the range of 9% to 12%. Is it going to be something different from this?

It depends, it is always much better than the commodities of the auto industry. Auto industry components are known as commodities. So the defense is always much, much better. There's no -- there's very little comparables.

Okay. So any ballpark figure, like in what range would it -- like 10 to 15, 15 to 20?

I mean, I can't really commit here.

No, I understand it's too early to give us guidance, but I just wanted to know this because you already don't have any order book figure, so we won't be able to figure out anything.

Where we reported, we kept a margin of almost 22%, 23% the last year. Then there was a fluctuation in the price of steel, the margins likely came down. And now the steel has gone bad. And so I mean like we are again back to that same level that we are talking of. So when we quote, there is 7, 8 items in that. So somewhere 25%, somewhere 22%, somewhere 28%, so it depends.

Okay. So that's what I wanted to know.

Yes. Okay. And some of the traded items, we keep a flat 10% to 15%. That's the other thing, where which we just trade, pass it on.

[Operator Instructions] The next question we have is from Deepak Poddar from Sapphire Capital.

Sir, I just wanted to understand, first, now in terms of margins, I mean, you said that quarter-on-quarter, we should see margin improvement, right? So I think earlier we had quantified I think, in the range of 50 to 100 basis point increase in margin on a quarter-on-quarter basis. So how do we see that as we speak now?

No, no. I don't remember really defining where every quarter you see 50 to 100 basis points. But we said that every quarter, you will see an improvement, and we have been touching double digits by the year end, but we are happy to do it now despite the sale being lesser than the previous quarter. And this current quarter would be even better than that and next onwards you will see further improvements making that. So a lot of things that we've taken up that have been done here. To give you one simple example, we've -- I'm getting a little technical now, in the casting area, in the iron casting area, we had yields of up to 45%, 50%. We've been able to improve them to 65%, even 70% in some cases. So that itself impacts the margins a lot and also frees up a lot of capacities. And we are doing a similar thing, both in the aluminum side and as well as the iron side. So all this is happening.

Okay. Understood. So I mean, what sort of -- I mean, 12% margin or 12%, 13% margin next year, is that a fair number to -- I mean, work with, I mean in FY '24?

I don't want to make any announcement now. And so I mean -- but I will rather surprise you, and you'll be happy on that.

Okay. Understood. And when you're talking about these margins, are you including other income as well? Is it excluding other income? I mean, this…

See, including -- excluding other income is 10.2 and including is 10.4.

Correct. But because this quarter, I think our other income was on the lower side. Otherwise, other income have a sensitivity of 1%?

Yes. That was because of the adjustments because of merger. So this is only restatement impact. So other income and other costs will remain almost the same as we declared last time. So because of the reinstatement, some adjustments are there. So that is where you are -- and let me tell you the other income is going to come up further, because the further mergers which are taking place, which I just announced, that would also reduce the other income, yes.

Okay. Because of the merger now my other income will come down. I mean, currently, it was about INR 1.5 crores. So it will be less than INR 1 crores going forward?

After the -- no, it will remain in this range because we've already boosted because of the -- one of the mergers. Yes, the further mergers we are doing. Okay. Speaking about the profitability of the other companies will also start merging into this company.

Okay. Understood. Understood. So is that the reason our depreciation and interest also is on the higher note on a quarter-on-quarter basis?

You are absolutely right. If you see our numbers those were published in quarter 2 or H1, those numbers have been reinstated and that is showing a huge difference in finance cost. And you see that is reflecting in other income also, so both sides, it has been adjusted. So that is what I was referring to. So it is because of that reason. As far as depreciation is concerned, that is on account of -- mainly on account of capitalization of all our projects that is during later part of Q2 and during Q3 also. So depreciation is on that account, mainly -- and finance cost is just an adjustment.

But going forward, is that the range you are working with, I mean, in terms of depreciation and interest?

In terms of depreciation, yes, that is the range. And in terms of interest, it should be in the same range. But here, INR 1.5 crores is one-time cost only, that is on account of euro volatility that has happened. So some reduction in interest cost can be there in Q4 as compared to Q3, but it will remain almost the same.

So INR 1.5 crores volatility maybe -- so currently, it was around INR 15 crores. So maybe INR 13 crores, INR 14 crores might be a good range to work with?

If that is under the expectation then probably RBAs will start reducing also, because during past few quarters, RBA has increased at least 5x the Rico rate on the tune of 225, 250 bps. So that has impacted our interest cost. So once it starts coming down, our interest costs will come down definitely. But otherwise, you should expect it in the same things.

Fair enough. I understand. And my final question is on tax. I mean, how do we see the tax rate?

Yes, tax rate currently applicable on us is -- so it comes to around 34.5%.

Correct, correct.

But what is going to happen is that this also you will see, after merger, these are also improving on the account of because there are a lot of deferred tax liabilities we have taken. This I think after merger will get reduced. So that will have a positive impact on us. And apart from that, it will take around 2, 2.5 years' time to recover all our net credits, etc., those are lying to our credits. So once we utilize those credits, then we will adopt the new regime of 25%. So there is going to be a reduction in tax cost.

Okay. So effective tax rate for next 2, 2.5 years will be in that range only? I mean this…

Yes, yes. It will be in this 34% range. But there is going to be a lot of adjustments in deferred tax. So actual interest rates will keep coming down next quarter onwards. And ultimately, we'll end up paying only 25%.

Yes, yes, yes. So cash outflow will be in the range of 25% only?

Absolutely. So cash outflow is not there at present also, which is at a lower side only, because we are investing a lot of…

Deferred tax, you are adjusting a lot of deferred tax.

Correct, correct.

And after 2 to 2.5 years, when your entire deferred tax is being utilized, then you will move on to the next -- I mean, the new regime there, where your effective tax will be 25%.

We're just waiting for that. So we want to be more than 25%, the current rate, that growth, yes.

The next question we have is from Pritesh Chheda from Lucky Investment Managers.

Sir, tax rate, including the default will be 25%?

Yes, once we adopt the new scheme.

So what -- so it is 22% right now.

Now on the balance sheet, if you see it is 24%, around that range. It will remain like that. But that is not the actual cash outflow that is going in. If you see our cash flow, there is a very less amount of tax as compared to what is appearing in the P&L account because of the deferred tax liability.

So what should be the including deferred tax liability tax rate next year?

Ultimately, it should be in the range of 25%, because once we utilize all our credits, we will…

Next year, what it should be, sir? It should be 30%, 25%?

In P&L, it will be in the range of 34% only, at the current rate.

Okay. My second question is on Toyota, how much from the new plant have we supplied from this quarter? New plant?

So it's about INR 40 crore this quarter and going up every month.

So basically, out of INR 200 crores of order that we got, we have already started supplying INR 40 crores per quarter, right? INR 200 annual, and we have started supplying INR 40 crore?

Yes, yes.

Okay. You mentioned that interest had a INR 3 crores one-time, right?

No, -- one-time, INR 1.5 crores, that is on account of euro volatility that we had to put down -- to bring it on MTM. The other portion that you are seeing is the adjustment that we said because of the merger, there is accounting adjustments those are reflecting, if you compare it with the previous quarter.

Okay. Then on your INR 2,400 crore annual number, INR 2,350 crore or INR 2,400 crore, whatever you want to mention, there was a 15-day plant shutdown for a lot rules this quarter. So that itself means 14%, 15% growth Q-o-Q, if there's a normal quarter next quarter, so based on that, we actually had towards 630, 640 and we have this order ramp-up to happen. So it's largely comfortable to reach INR 2,300 crore, INR 2,350 crore plus number? Is this assessment correct?

INR 2,300 crore plus, 100%.

Okay. And if you are doing a 10% margin out of INR 550 crores revenue, you'll obviously do a better margin when it was INR 650 crores revenue, right?

As the revenue goes up, you'll see the margin improving also and -- but also the cuts that we are making at our system and which the level of improvement that are happening here.

Okay. Next on the -- just like Toyota, we have got incremental orders from BMW, which will help you register the growth in your exports next year. What is the progress on those BMW incremental orders? In terms of…

One, we had already got and announced in the last meeting also, that is almost INR 100 crores a year. That we've already bought, that's for the electric vehicle. And it's the other forefront components, which are on the pipeline, and the teams are here for audit. That audit was excellent and so by March, they would make that decision.

So at least those INR 100 crore incremental order is what you're building in your revenue number, export revenue number moving from 500 to 600?

No, that comes the year after that. That gets into a year after that.

So BMW orders or the export comes a year after that?

Yes, We have not factored that into the existing quarters.

Okay. So existing customer and existing product line is where you have to build in this 20% growth for exports next year?

Existing customers and there are some new orders from other customers besides BMW, electric vehicle, and next year we can ramp up, that's the other thing that's happening.

That's not BMW, that's other than BMW, right?

No, no, one moment. We are already supplying electric vehicle components to BMW and PSA and Renault. We are supplying to all 3 of them. So the ramp-up is taking place in PSA as well as BMW and Northern is not electric. And so that ramp-up is already taking place in those supplies. When I'm talking of the next orders, those are the gensets, the next generation of components that are going to be developed. And for that, what we are bidding for which we've already got one order.

Okay. And when you supply to a new model or a new platform, just like the Toyota which you have started supplying and there is an incremental business to be built on. Ideally the margins should be better in these orders, right, versus your existing product lines?

Absolutely. The new products are always better margin than the older ones.

Okay. And lastly, sir, you mentioned -- I understood on the interest part, now instead of 15, it should be a number closer to whatever, 13, 13.5. The depreciation number at 29.5, you've already capitalized your entire CWIP or there is anything to be left to be capitalized in CWIP?

Be it, whatever is said and done, but it's only any new balancing equipment that might come in, which would be done again.

Sorry, what is new?

Any balancing equipment that would become -- some inspection equipment or some washing equipment, et cetera, et cetera.

So when you -- you want to have a large capex plan over the next 2 years and all your capex is maintenance of INR 50 crores, INR 60 crores, as you mentioned in the past quarter, we can safely annualize this INR 30 core quarterly run rate as your depreciation number for next year?

Yes, yes, yes.

Yes, right. So you will be in a situation where your top-line will grow 20%, your margin will expand and you have a similar interest and depreciation number with that 34% tax rate?

Yes, that's right. In the P&L.

For -- in the period. Sir, my last question is, we don't make much number on the casting side, the Ferrous casting which is 20% of our business. We don't make any EBIT?

It's less than the 15% now. And Ferrous components also are machining tools RS.

So do we make any EBITDAs on Ferrous business where the capacity utilization is less? Or which was 0 EBITDA?

We've been able to free the capacity by improving the yield. That's what I just mentioned.

So are you making any EBITDA percentage? EBITDA -- positive EBITDA there or you're not making on the Ferrous business?

Ferrous side is a challenge, but now this is a new -- which is I think bought the yield, there's a tremendous change there in some of that.

So zero EBITDA will move higher, right? On the Ferrous casting, that's what you were mentioning via the yield?

Certainly, certainly. Oh, yes, yield makes a lot of difference. There's an improvement of almost 50% in the yield that we were using earlier, from 40%, we've gone to 60% plus.

Has it flowed down in your quarter 3 number or it will flow in your incremental numbers?

See the number of patterns will be done by over 20 as a set of patterns. So we've been able to do, I think, about 7 or 8 of them already and every week, there's a new pattern which is being introduced. So it's a process.

And lastly, what will be your debt repayment next year?

It is in the range of INR 100 crores, INR 90 crore to INR 100 crore.

Will we see any debt impairment this year in FY '23?

Yes. This year, also it is around INR 90 crores we have to repay. Out of that INR 70 crores have already been repaid during these 3 quarters.

So this interest cost is after the repayment? So your debt number has come down and yet the interest cost has gone up, right?

No, debt number has not really come down as of now. It will start coming down after about 1 year or so from now.

No, you said there is a debt repayment of INR 100 crores this year under and there is a debt repayment of INR 100 crore next year.

No, but there is fresh debt also that we have to arrange for these whatever capex has happened and for operations also working capital need is going up. So because of that reason, as of now, the debt levels remain at almost the same level.

Same level?

And -- Yes, yes, yes.

So we did see the net. So we will see the actual debt repayment next year?

Yes. Yes.

So then this…

That this will start coming down after a year or so, it is after 4 quarters.

[Foreign Language], your debt repayment will come by 4 quarters. But now you do not have any capex next year, sir, you do not have a capex next year?

No, we don't have. No major capex.

So still there won't be any debt repayment in FY '24?

Because of the working capital needs because…

See, as the working capital, as our exports go up, you must realize that we'll get a payment after 120 days. And that is 30 days of shipment, 30 days of stock, and 30 days after that the payment comes in 10, 15 days delayed. So it's almost 110 days we factor and when we do our export costing. And so that we haven't come. So as the exports go up, our working capital requirement also goes up, but we are trying to get that funded also from BMW directly. And we've been successful with one of the companies in U.S. But we are going to -- attempted to do that so that our total debt comes down.

The next question we have is from Mukesh Modi from Modi Fincap.

Congratulations for the reasonable set of numbers. My most of the questions are being asked about the export and interest and depreciation. So a couple of them which are left is, sir, for Gen 5, how much we have reached 4 million capacity? What is the capacity utilization in Gen 5 and Fluidtronics?

The total capacity rate for Gen 5 is 4.5 million. And at the moment, we are -- we are at about 2.2 million, 2.3 million at the moment. And this year, we'll be further increasing the capacity because we've started talking to all the customers now. Earlier, we were with Bajaj and Hero. Now we're adding on Honda and the scooters also, yes, we are in that also. So overall, you will see the capacity going up.

Now FY '24 should we reach around 3.5?

Targets are 3, 3.5 [indiscernible] volumes game, the more we produce, the better the profitability.

Correct. And sir, what about Rico Fluidtronics?

Fluidtronics, in fact, they have -- last year that turnover was -- 65 and this year will be 135. Yes, So last year, that turnover was about INR 60 crores, INR 65 crores, and this year they'll do about INR 130 crores, INR 135 crore. And next year, again, there will be an improvement. And because these are the new orders we got from Maruti and we started executing both.

On both of them are EBITDA positive, right, sir?

Beg your pardon?

Both these companies are EBITDA positive?

Yes. Yes, yes, yes.

And CapEx, you said is around the maintenance CapEx is INR 50 crore for next year, only around INR 50 crores?

Yes, about 58, 60-plus [indiscernible].

Is there any news on land monetization?

Yes, of course now the market is improving and [Foreign Language] also growing, so we are -- we started talking to people, and let's see what happens, because we are ready.

Okay. But that can reduce the debt considerably?

That will eliminate our debt, not reduce.

The next question we have is from [indiscernible] Capital Investment.

Yes. Am I audible?

Yes.

Yes. So first of all, congratulations for the wonderful set of numbers. My most of the questions are already answered. Just one thing I just want to know, what is the 3-year 2- or 3-year plan, the company has set as in terms of the revenue and the margins you have already mentioned that you view will be in double-digit margins. So let's say, by '25 or '26, '26-'27, what is the view of the management?

See, we would like to grow by minimum, our internal thing is that we should grow minimum by 15% year-on-year. And -- but this year, of course, we are growing higher than -- maybe around 25 plus. And next year also, I think that -- even though 15% was internal target, we'll grow more than that. And we are after that, again, 15% is what we factored at the moment. That's what where we are.

So can we assume…

But we'll surprise you, we'll be much better than that.

So would it be fair to assume that, I mean, not 25, as in your own reaching 25, so will it be fair to understand a 20% is a fair enough number?

15% [Foreign Language].

That's very nice. That's very nice. So congratulations for the good set of numbers and best of all for the future growth.

The last question we have comes from Suraj Nawandhar from Sampada Investments.

Sir, I just had one question on the defense side. I just wanted to understand that what all products we do on the defense side apart from fuses?

See, one is the fuses of course, and then one is the firing ranges that I had mentioned. And then there's an automatic system for the tanks that we are bidding for. These are some of the things that we are very actively involved at the moment. And…

What would be the revenue contribution from the defense, sir? Last year and this 9 months?

[Foreign Language] it's very minimal. But the fact that such a challenging requires so much patience and many times, we had given at 7 years [Foreign Language] before we really penetrated into the defense. And now since we have been honored for that many years, and now we are getting more and more confident of the penetration into defense and Navy and other -- the paramilitary forces. So we are working on all of them, and there are climbers and there are various other products which are there. And so I think we will give you some good news soon.

Sir, do you have any target percentage in mind that defense revenue should come from?

I didn't understand, please repeat.

Sir, any target percentage of your revenue, let's say, 3 years down the line or 4 years down the line you are targeting at least 20%, 10% of our revenue from defense. Do you have any such targets in mind right now? Or it is too early to say?

[Foreign Language] defense, it's too early to rate it, right? [Foreign Language] that will be almost 20% of our turnover [Foreign Language] it depends, when they actually start releasing orders. We have not factored any defense in the growth numbers.

So whatever will come, that is a bonus for us?

That will be bonus, yes.

There are no further questions at this moment in time. I would now like to hand the conference back over to the management team for the closing comments. Sir?

Thank you so much for today's -- for hearing us today, and we hope to give you even better results the next time. And the -- I was happy to announce the NCLT, the new merger that has been approved just today itself. And I think that will also help to improve some of our numbers. And we are hoping that we'll give you better and better results in every quarter. You'll see a change every quarter. Yes, these are all 100% subsidiaries of Rico, which will start merging into Rico, that will happen now. And subsequently, we are looking at the possibility of merging all the auto components into one, but that's later on days. Thank you so much, and hope to see you soon.

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, that then concludes today's conference. On behalf of S-Ancial Technologies, thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.