Roper Technologies, Inc. (ROP) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
September 15, 2020
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Deane Dray
analystGood morning, everyone. It's Deane Dray, RBC senior analyst covering the multi-industry and electrical equipment group. Welcome to Day 2 of the 2020 Virtual RBC Industrials Conference. We are excited to kick the morning off with Roper Technologies. Via video conference call, we have 3 senior leaders: Neil Hunn, President and CEO; Rob Crisci, CFO; and Head of Investor Relations, Zack Moxcey. So good morning, everyone. And I always like to find out, since we're in the virtual world, where is everyone connecting from today. Neil, where are you?
Neil Hunn
executiveLive from my office in Sarasota, Florida.
Deane Dray
analystTerrific. What's the temperature?
Neil Hunn
executiveIt's rainy, and about 85.
Deane Dray
analystAll right. Good. Rob?
Rob Crisci
executiveI'm in Sarasota, Florida also, but in my house right across town.
Deane Dray
analystTerrific. And Zack?
Zack Moxcey
executiveI'm down the hall from Neil, in Roper Global HQ.
Deane Dray
analystAll right. Good to hear you're social distancing. Just -- first of all, we appreciate your participating in our conference. And maybe just to start things off, it's always interesting to hear from the senior managers about their playbook in the downturn. What was new in terms of -- because these are brand-new challenges that we were posed with. But just give us a sense of the pandemic-driven actions that you've taken and cost out and where things stand today?
Neil Hunn
executiveThanks, Deane, and thanks for having us. Yes, the pandemic, back in that late March, early April time frame when things were -- so we're sitting everybody home from work and sort of working on how to countermeasure the uncertainty in front of the business. It's really where our model shines, right? We're a $5.5 billion business that is broken into 45 different business units. So you have 45 management teams that are super intimate with their demand, super intimate with their supply chains. And they just immediately start taking action that's sensical and logical. Now given the pandemic, nature of it and the -- and truly first time in 100 years has it happened, at the -- from Sarasota, the headquarters, we set out some guiding principles, which sort of comprised of focus on your cost countermeasures to be temporary, not structural; assume that the virus is around for a longer duration versus shorter duration; assume that the economic sort of headwinds are longer versus shorter. So we set some guiding principles or assumptions we asked the companies to sort of take into their operating playbook, if you will. But then the 45 teams just went to work, right? I mean, that's what they do every day. And it's really where the intimacy with this customer base and sort of had breaking down $5.5 billion into 45 chunks really proven to be quite useful. And our -- or this whole structure was -- we really shined here.
Deane Dray
analystRob, a little more color on any structural cost takeouts or were those all temporary? And how about when the temporary ones come back?
Rob Crisci
executiveYes. I mean, almost all temporary, right? Again, those decisions are really made by the business leaders. We certainly had oversight over that. But as Neil alluded to, our goal at Roper is around long-term growth. And so we want the businesses to continue to invest as much as they can even during this period, and we've been doing that. So there certainly were some mostly temporary cost actions. Some of those are starting to be rolled back, and we're really having -- continuing to invest because we're really focused on 2021 and beyond.
Deane Dray
analystGood. And what we view as a real testament to your earnings visibility and unique business model, Roper was 1 of only 2 companies in the entire sector that continue to give guidance through this downturn. Maybe just touch on the decision to maintain guidance and the visibility that you have for the balance of 2020. Take that Neil, please.
Neil Hunn
executiveYes, sure. So when we were starting the earnings prep process in April, Rob and I and Zack and Shannon, the team, we went into our operating reviews where the company is assuming we're going to have to withdraw our guidance just given the uncertainty. That was our playbook. We got 2 days into about 6 days of planned reviews. Actually at the first day, Rob and I spoke, and I said, I think we're going to be able to guide just given the -- one, the recurring revenue nature of the businesses, but more importantly, that first day was our most cyclical review, our process technology review. And the businesses had just a very good bead on what the demand impacts were going to be, what the status and the backlog was, the confidence on delivery of the backlog in the short run. And then that confidence just increased during the reviews as we got into the higher recurring revenue parts of the business. And then ultimately, I was able to give guidance and reaffirm that guidance on the top level when we issued in July, right? So it's just a testament to the recurring nature of the business and the intimacy our businesses have with both our demand and supply chains.
Deane Dray
analystAll right. So just a little more color in terms of expectations on decremental margins over the near term and assuming -- tell us what you're thinking in terms of a recovery but what we should be thinking about in terms of incremental margins?
Neil Hunn
executiveI'll give you a top level and let Rob add any color. So it really is 2 different models within our business. Obviously, our industrial and energy businesses that have the most headwinds relative to demand, those margins have suffered a bit. They're still very good, but they fell off a few hundred basis points. We'd expect those because -- those businesses, as you know, are highly variable cost structure. So as soon as demand comes back, margins reinflate nicely there. The software businesses, the margins actually, in some pockets, improved. It's a combination of a lot of factors, but a little bit of headwind on perpetual weakness as expected, but retention rates remaining high, the ability to deliver the service backlog remained intact. And then a number of the short-term variable expenses in those businesses, travel to customers, customer meetings, obviously, those were jettisoned, like most other companies, which gave you some protection against sort of the pressure that comes from the lower -- a little bit lower perpetual revenues. So on balance, the margins there hung in very well. So Rob, anything you want to add to that?
Rob Crisci
executiveYes. I mean, that's the key, right? The software businesses, there's not much of an impact, and we've seen what we've seen in process, but that's a really small part of the company overall. So in Q2, our EBITDA margins were flat year-over-year. In the second half, EBITDA margins are down a little, flattish, just right in that same range. And I think we're well positioned from here to continue to expand a little bit, right? And the model has been about expanding the margins a lot, about investing for long-term organic growth, but there's no headwinds we see why margin should be down moving forward.
Deane Dray
analystAnd how about on the other side, on the recovery incrementals, just kind of from visibility that you have today, what would you be looking for?
Rob Crisci
executiveWell, I think it's the same story, right? You're not going down a lot. And so there's not this huge shoot back in terms of incrementals. It's very steady. We're sort of like a 40%-ish on the EBITDA line incremental when you lay everything together. As the software businesses grow faster, that goes up a little bit. But we always stay sort of 40%, 45% incremental, so that's generally what we see close out of that deal.
Deane Dray
analystAll right. And then -- go ahead.
Neil Hunn
executiveNo, that's it, Deane.
Deane Dray
analystAll right. So -- and I'd be remiss not to probe on free cash flow generation in the downturn, working capital and then expectations for free cash flow on the recovery.
Neil Hunn
executiveLet me take the working capital, and then I'll pass it to Rob on the free cash flow. So one of the -- we were braced in the late March, early April time frame for there to be some working capital expansion, just slower payments. We do have hospital exposure, both software and medical product exposure to hospitals. And we don't have a lot of exposure to small- and medium-sized businesses because most of our software customers are enterprise, but we were braced for some of that challenge. It did not, in any meaningful way, actually manifest itself. We're pleasantly surprised with that. I think it is a testament to, on the software side, most of our customers can't run their business without our stuff. So I assume that's the reason where the -- sort of the -- one of the first payments, if you will, they make. Medical products were critical for fight against COVID. So we're in a top Q to get paid on the health care side. And on the industrial and process side, cash flow and receivables remain pretty much in line with history. So we've been real fortunate on the working capital side. Rob, you want to talk about free cash flow, on free cash flow and...
Rob Crisci
executiveYes. I mean we've been pointing -- I think it's a good metric that's very repeatable, is this free cash flow to EBITDA. We've been in the 75% range for free cash flow to EBITDA for quite a while. And I expect that number to stay there and get a little bit better moving forward. As Neil said, we were a little worried coming into the pandemic, and we didn't much -- there's obviously -- there's some timing, as you saw with the earnings, right? Some of our taxes got delayed, which we talked about in the second quarter. So that is -- there's some move around on timing. But if you look overall, free cash flow to EBITDA, we're well into the mid- to high-70s. We think that's a critical, critical number. Because your EBITDA doesn't convert to cash flow. And to us, it's not meaningful.
Deane Dray
analystAnd no change in just the composition on working capital? Still negative working capital on a quarterly basis. That hasn't changed in the downturn?
Neil Hunn
executiveHas not changed at all. There were some questions about in the downturn what our deferred revenue become a bad guy versus a good guy. And the reality is it's continued to be a good guy because the vast majority of deferred revenue is prepaid maintenance or prepaid annual SaaS licenses, where only the passage of time has to occur for us to recognize that revenue. So it's proven to be a positive lever in our model.
Deane Dray
analystAll right. Good. I want to touch on a couple of the key businesses, and then we'll talk about balance sheet and the M&A outlook. So if we look at -- maybe the one that investors have really keyed on because it is such a pivotal contract win is this whole New York City congestion tolling project with TransCore. Just had some pushouts, which shouldn't be too surprising, COVID related. But if you can give us an update on what's transpired so far and the outlook.
Neil Hunn
executiveYes, sure. So I'll just -- I'll reset the project for everybody and then let Rob sort of get into where we stand today or where we stood at the end of the second quarter. So the project is, we're implementing the infrastructure to do congestion tolling in New York City. It's a strategically important project for our customer, the MTA as well as the city. Originally, it was to fund -- the revenue was to fund capital improvements in the subway and rapid transit system. That's still the case. On the back end of the -- or the beginning of the pandemic, the budget allowed the proceeds or the revenue from this project to be used for operating purposes in 2021 and 2022. So that was a modest change. And this is my personal point of view, not anything from the customer in New York. But if ridership is going to be lower for the next year or 2, then that makes this project even that much more strategically important because it's another revenue stream. That said, it is -- as you alluded to, it has been very difficult to do a large-scale implementation of an infrastructure project in New York City in the midst of the pandemic. So things have pushed to the right a bit, but the project by all accounts and all discussions with the customer remains on -- strategically important, just pushed to the right. So with that as a backdrop, Rob, why don't you talk through where we are.
Rob Crisci
executiveYes, it's all correct. So I think we laid out some of the numbers on the last earnings call. We were originally thinking maybe about $200 million of revenue this year. That's looking more like $100 million, $110 million this year. And then it's a fixed price contract, everything Neil said about that we think is going to continue. So therefore, that just pushes into next year. So really no net loss, just a delay. And then once it gets up and running, we'll get annual maintenance revenue from that project. So great relationship with the customer. We're working hard. They're working hard. We're doing everything we can to get it done under the sort of COVID world. And so I think it's just pushing out to the right a little bit.
Deane Dray
analystAnd then not to belabor the point, but the whole idea, there was initial some worries that while everyone is just going to work from home and no one's ever going to drive into New York City, and you just don't need congestion tolling ever again. But the reality is, the people that are commuting in maybe have more of an incentive to be driving as opposed to mass transit and so the net effect shouldn't be that noticeable. Is that a fair working assumption?
Neil Hunn
executiveYes. I think that gets into what the customer's revenue projections are. And so I don't want to approach that. That's sort of -- we're not privy to what that looks like. We're just told time and time again that the infrastructure is important, the project is important, and we'll leave it there.
Deane Dray
analystTerrific. All right. So switch over to the largest deal Roper has ever done, the $5.4 billion acquisition of Vertafore in insurance. Just kind of talk us through at a high level why it was attractive, that -- where and how it does and how it doesn't have synergies with iPipeline and where do things stand in terms of the early days of integration?
Rob Crisci
executiveSure. First it's $5.35 billion. That last $50 million was hard fought with Vista and Bain, just so you know. So we've got a sort of record...
Deane Dray
analystI think just we have implied there, but yes, $5.35 billion.
Rob Crisci
executiveTo those in the line who are listening. That $50 million was hard fought. So thank you for that. So hey, the business is a fantastic business, just running through the criteria, right? It's CRI accretive, which is the first of our M&A criteria for every deal. The management team is spectacular. We view this spectacular in that they're focused on building this business. Amy and her team have been there for 4 or 5 years. And they're building this business the right way, right, with the proper infrastructure, the proper processes to drive sort of long-term and hopefully improved and sustained higher organic growth than what they've had historically. And from a business profile perspective, it's a niche, it's property. It's agency management solution software for property and casualty insurance agents. So it's the core software chassis that the agents use to run their business. It's a -- the competitive forces are known and observable. There's one primary competitor in us in terms of the market sort of dynamic, competitive dynamics. They have very long track record of mid single-digit organic growth rate. And in the last 4 or 5 years, they've added some products, especially on the carrier side, which we think gives us optionality for higher growth rate going forward. And so it just checks all the boxes, like every acquisition we ultimately do does. And then the kicker on this one was that we're able to finance it at just record-breaking levels in terms of rate. So we always assume the same level of capital cost for 15 years in our model. And then when we can do better, it's just incremental good guy for our shareholders. So in this case, all-in financing was just north of 1%.
Deane Dray
analystHow about -- take us through at a high level, when you talk about the boxes to be checked. Because you're highly disciplined in terms of how you go about targeting potential acquisitions, and they have to meet some really exact theme criteria, including cultural fit. So when you -- and then make sure you touched on the CRI because I think that's a real differentiator in terms of how you look at M&A, what you consider to be and how you measure returns.
Neil Hunn
executiveYes, thanks. So we'll just go through the checklists briefly. So our first screening criteria for every transaction is, is it accretive to our cash returns? And is it accretive to organic growth rate? So the cash return is our North Star, it is our definition of success. And over the arc of 20 years, we've improved our CRI from 30% in 2003 to a little about 500% today, right? So it's been a core element of our strategy, which if you don't -- if you're not a student of cash return, it essentially says, 20 years ago, we generated $0.30 of cash flow for every fixed asset and net working capital dollar in the business, and today, we generate $5 per $1 of assets deployed in the business. So the quality of our cash flow has just improved dramatically over that period of time. So we only acquire businesses that are better than us, and our proxy for that definition is better CRI, higher CRI. So Vertafore checks that box. The second criteria, Roper in Sarasota here there's -- when we are in the office, there's only 60 of us. There's no management teams laying around idle. And so it's super important for us to acquire a management team that aligns with our culture. And the simplest way to describe that is we need a team that is -- just gets up out of bed every day wanting to go beat their competition and grow and build their business. In the private equity world, some management teams are aligned with that philosophy. Others are aligned with sort of what we call transactional philosophy. So they wake up every day pursuing the next transaction. In our view, those management teams don't build businesses the right way for a long period of time. They're sort of building them for the next transaction. So in this case, Amy and her team are 100% aligned with the builder concept. Go ahead, Deane.
Deane Dray
analystNo. What was interesting -- so this -- on the cultural fit, maybe an example of everything that lined up in terms of potential returns but at the end, you decided that wasn't the right cultural fit. Maybe it was a founder owner that you didn't think would work well within the Roper organization.
Neil Hunn
executiveWell, it's hard to...
Rob Crisci
executiveYes.
Neil Hunn
executiveGo ahead, Rob.
Rob Crisci
executiveYes. Well, there's a number of assets we see. We looked at this business several years ago. And to us, it wasn't -- we didn't quite sort of have the management team that we thought that were great in our structure. I mean that's the most sort of realignment example.
Neil Hunn
executiveIt's a great example. 2016, when we looked at Vertafore, we passed because of the management team dynamic.
Deane Dray
analystAnd that's not -- that issue is not there anymore?
Neil Hunn
executiveWith this new team?
Deane Dray
analystYes.
Neil Hunn
executiveSo that's not there, exactly.
Deane Dray
analystAll right. The $1.6 billion acquisition of iPipeline. Insurance also, but it might as well be a different industry. Is that fair?
Neil Hunn
executiveCorrect. iPipeline is life insurance. Vertafore is property and casualty. The carrier overlap, there's only like 5 or 6 carriers that write both lines, if you will. So it's almost a completely different ecosystem. In addition, what iPipeline does is different conceptually than what Vertafore does. As I mentioned, Vertafore is the core system of record for the agents that they run their business with. iPipeline, Internet Pipeline going back to the origins of the company, are the pipes that connect the insurance companies and their distribution engine, right? And so when the insurance companies want to launch a new product, the details are launched through our company's pipes through the distribution channel. When the distribution channel wants to get a quote or write coverage, they push that back through the pipes, right? And so it's more of a network effect at iPipeline -- excuse -- hence why it's in our network business. And Vertafore is more application software, hence in our application software business segment.
Deane Dray
analystAll right. Great distinction between those. So Vertafore puts you at pro forma leverage around 4x. So just address your ability to fund M&A. Are you shut out at all over the near-term as you work that leverage down and there's -- how do you view the self-funding aspect of your whole M&A strategy?
Neil Hunn
executiveYes. Thank you for that question or questions. So principally, we're going to be out of the market for large-scale M&A for the next 12 months, plus or minus. This is exactly the play that we ran in the second half of 2016 when we bought Deltek and ConstructConnect. We essentially deployed 2016, '17's capital in one shot in Q4 of 2016. Similar dynamic here. It's essentially 2020 and 2021's cash flow being deployed here in the third quarter of 2020. Same exact concept. We're -- from a self-funding point of view, our business model is super simple. We generate -- we have a bunch of super high-quality businesses that generate a tremendous amount of excess cash flow. This is cash flow they cannot invest back in their businesses after they fully funded their channel investments, they fully funded their innovation investments and many times increased the level of innovation in the businesses. And then the cash that's left over comes to the corporate and then we deploy it. The model is such that we deploy that and we stay investment -- we are committed to investment-grade leverage, which allows us to run at plus or minus 3x sort of leverage over a long arc of time. You peak up like we are right now, we'll pay ourselves down. We'll probably peak up again and pay it down. But the policy is to be investment-grade at about 3x. So it is a perfectly self-sustaining model with a little bit of leverage on it, which actually provides enhanced returns to our shareholders, right? It's just you're running the M&A flywheel a little bit faster, which all, by the way, has been part of the self-funding mechanism for 20 years. There's no difference there.
Deane Dray
analystTalk about the funnel. So even if there's not a big acquisition over the near term, you still spend a lot of time cultivating the final relationships and have a long view in terms of what might fit well with Roper.
Neil Hunn
executiveYes. So again, I appreciate the opportunity to talk about this question. Every transaction that we've done since 2016, Deltek, ConstructConnect, iPipeline, PowerPlan, Foundry and certainly Vertafore, all of them, we've had a pre-existing relationship with the management team. So this Vertafore management team, we met in Q1 of 2019 for the first time. Obviously, we had exposure to the business in 2016. So we know that we're -- more likely than not where we're going to deploy our capital a year and 2 years from now are going to be from companies that we meet in the next 6 to 12 months. Right? So we will continually build relationships with companies and with sponsors and, if you will, sort of prequalify that pipeline. Yes, so being in the market and sort of understanding and getting to know these management teams and companies is critical for our future capital deployment.
Deane Dray
analystOne of the questions I get from investors is, when a business is -- uses growth by M&A as part of their algorithm, eventually, they face a law of large numbers. Like when does an incremental large deal not move the needle, by our math and our experience, we covered Danaher when they did, I mean, visibly hit the law of large numbers where some of their larger deals were not moving the needle. We had a whole thesis they were going to need to do some form of a breakup and that resulted eventually in the spin-off of what was Fortive. But the market cap at that point for Danaher was $85 billion to $90 billion. So 2x of where Roper is today. So I'm very confidently telling people law of large numbers doesn't -- you can double before we're even into that conversation. But I'd love to hear your perspective.
Neil Hunn
executiveYes. So for us, as we decompose the growth drivers and our growth algorithm over the last 7, 12 and 17 years, it's been basically 19% TSR. And the organic revenue growth, the organic operating cash flow growth, the M&A layer and then the improvement attributed to better CRI as we look through that model and apply it forward, the next 7 years, that's just the planning horizon that we work on, there is -- we deploy -- have to deploy about $2.5 billion a year right now. At the end of 7 years, it's about $3.5 billion. So there's nothing that says in our model, the way we do it today, that we can't do the capital deployment or manage the breadth of the portfolio that exists 7 years from now, right? So I understand getting too big, to me, it's not about big deals. Our sweet spots are $750 million to $1.5 billion size deals. So we do 3 of those 7 years from now versus 2 now. I don't view that as a scale issue. At some point, we will run into the Danaher problem, but we 100% agree with you that it's not in the next 7 plus or minus years. But we critically evaluate this. As you know, we have a Board meeting coming up this week and it's this strategic long-term things, things like this, we talk about with our Board. So we're constantly vigilant in that.
Deane Dray
analystAnd I just want to point out one of the things that's really different about Roper. When you talk about an acquisition, rarely do you talk about earnings accretion as much as you're talking about free cash flow accretion. And is that's just something that everyone should expect? And is that still the plan going forward?
Neil Hunn
executiveWe are -- our whole strategy is based on compounding cash flow, right? So that's where we focus, right? And so we will give adjusted DEPS guidance once we -- now that we're closing Vertafore and give a sense of what that looks like for sure. But this -- our strategy is about cash flow because it's tangible, you see it, you can touch it, right, as opposed to earnings from company to company can be defined quite differently where cash flow cannot.
Deane Dray
analystAnd in terms of earnings visibility, I mean, I really appreciate the work that you did on the resegmentation because it really makes so much more sense than what you had before. You're still a hybrid. It's Roper Technologies and you're covered by predominantly industrial analysts. And my experience has been when you buy a really like unique asset, let's say, Foundry, it's always new for the industrial investors to say, well, wait a second, this is not like a pump company that they're used to looking at. So there's -- I find there's a delay until the deal closes and the cash flow comes in and the comfort level then spikes higher. It's not on the announcement, it's on the, here's the first quarter with all the cash flow. Is that still the experience? Because I certainly feel that way.
Neil Hunn
executiveIt's the experience and our internal expectation. And it's not the first quarter. It's -- we got to get, in this case, Vertafore completely in our trailing, right? So it takes about a year for the value we expect in our models to accrete into our shareholders.
Deane Dray
analystAll right. So let me -- I got this question...
Rob Crisci
executiveWe can't tell you why that is. We can just tell you that's what empirically what's been experienced over a long period of time, not just for us, but for many other companies that we said as well.
Deane Dray
analystAbsolutely, Zack and I have talked about this at length. And as soon as the deal printed, we said don't expect an immediate stock reaction because for whatever reason, it takes a bit longer until the deal closes and the cash flow is tangible, and you can point to that increase -- incremental increase in the cash flow, that's when the market starts to recognize those deals. So we're very comfortable with that. I'm also comfortable with the ground that we've covered over the last 30 minutes. I appreciate that. Our time is up. And just to make sure investors know that they're not getting gypped on getting to do one-on-ones today, you all have a full day planned, I understand, to do the onboarding of the leadership team from Vertafore. Is that right?
Neil Hunn
executiveThat's correct. It starts in about an hour.
Deane Dray
analystOkay, good. So fully appreciate, your schedule is full, but you did graciously give us this opportunity this morning. Thank you, Neil. Thank you, Rob. Thank you, Zack. Best of luck. And Shannon, who I know is in the background there somewhere. So best of luck to the team. Stay well.
Neil Hunn
executiveThank you. And it's always a pleasure to hear you.
Rob Crisci
executiveBye, everybody. Thank you.
Deane Dray
analystThis concludes the presentation by Roper. Thank you.
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