RTL Group S.A. (RRTL) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

August 9, 2024

Deutsche Boerse Xetra DE Consumer Staples Media earnings 39 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

operator
#1

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the RTL Group's Half Year Results 2024 Conference Call. I'm Moritz your chorus call operator. [Operator Instructions]. And the conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Oliver Fahlbusch. Please go ahead, sir.

Oliver Fahlbusch

executive
#2

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our analyst call for RTL Group's Half Year Results 2024. The speakers for today's presentation are Thomas Rabe, the Group's CEO; Elmar Heggen, our Deputy CEO and COO; Björn Bauer, our CFO; and Thomas Servatius, Co-CEO of Smartclip. The presentation for this call is available on our corporate website, rtl.com, following the link included on our press release under download. The agenda on Slide 2 shows the areas our management team will cover today. In addition, we will look closer at the partnership between RTL Group's ad-tech business Smartclip and Virtual Minds from ProSiebenSat.1. After the presentation, Thomas and Bjorn are available to answer your questions. And with this, I will hand over to Thomas Rabe.

Thomas Rabe

executive
#3

Well, many thanks, Oliver, and good morning to all of you. Thank you for joining us this Friday morning. Let me share with you the highlights for the 6 months of 2024 on Slide 4. We continue to make significant progress in executing our strategy and transforming our businesses by investing, partnering and cooperating more than ever before. First and foremost, I'm very pleased about the continued dynamic growth in streaming. Paying subscribers for streaming service in Germany, France and Hungary were up 25% to 6.3 million year-on-year. Streaming revenues grew by 42% in the first half of the year. RTL+ increases viewing hours to almost 50% across all age groups, and M6+ in France launched successfully with a significant pickup in usage. We are on track to reach our long-term streaming targets and thus profitability by 2026. TV advertising markets have recovered in the first half of 2024, with Germany up between 2.5% and 3.5% and France up around 6%. TV advertising revenue across the group grew by almost 5%, with RTL Germany outperforming the market, also because our German family of channels extended its audience lead or ProSiebenSat1 in the target group to a new record level for first half. In line with our strategy, we invested EUR 200 million for the acquisitions of Asacha Media Group and Beach House Pictures to further expand our global content business Fremantle. Our partnerships with Deutsche Telekom and Sky Deutschland are working well, and the advertising technology partnership with ProSiebenSat1 will start soon. Thomas Servatius will talk about this later. With the plan migration of RTL+ to the Bedrock technology platform, we're creating a true European champion streaming technology while reducing our streaming tech costs. Our financial performance in the first half of 2024 was in line with our expectations, and we confirm our full year outlook. And with this, I hand over to Bjorn, who will take you through our detailed financials.

Björn Bauer

executive
#4

Thank you, Thomas, and good morning, everyone. First, I'd like to make one comment regarding the presentation of our numbers. We announced the envisaged sale of RTL Nederland to DPG Media at the end of December, last year. In May 2024, the Dutch competition authority ACM announced the so-called Phase 2 investigation into the planned transaction. Nevertheless, we remain confident to receive approval and expect the transaction to close around the end of 2024. As a result, the operating segment RTL Nederland continues to be classified as a disposal group held for sale and is presented as discontinued operations in our consolidated accounts for the first half of 2024. In accordance with IFRS 5, discontinued operations are reported separately from continuing operations, and if not indicated otherwise, all figures in this presentation refer to continuing operations, i.e. without RTL Nederland. Let's start with a look at our key financials on Slide 6. In the first half of 2024, RTL Group's revenue grew by 2% to EUR 2.9 billion. Adjusted for portfolio changes and at constant exchange rate, group revenue was also up 2% organically. Revenue growth was mainly driven by higher TV advertising revenue and significantly higher streaming revenue. These effects were partly offset by lower content revenue from Fremantle. Our adjusted EBITA was slighltly down to EUR 172 million due to higher costs for sports programs of approximately EUR 50 million, mainly for the UEFA 2024 matches in Germany and France. The total group profit in the first half of 2024 was up 31% to EUR 173 million, with EUR 110 million coming from continuing operations. Let's turn to Slide 7, adjusted EBITA. As mentioned by Thomas, our financial performance from the first half of 2024 was in line with our expectations. First, and as you can see on this slide, the slight decrease in adjusted EBITA reflects what we presented with our full year guidance in March. Higher underlying operating profits are offset by higher cost for sports programs. Secondly, we guided that 2024 will be another back-loaded year in which we will generate the largest part of our adjusted EBITA in the second half of the year, in particular, in Q4. Moving onto Slide 8, and a closer look at the main items below adjusted EBITA, down to group profit. The EUR 33 million, significant special items, mainly reflect cost efficiency measures at Deutschland and Fremantle. This is an improvement compared to the first half of 2023 when the restructuring of RTL Deutschland's publishing business resulted in higher one-off costs. The second driver for our higher group profit comes from the line fair value measurement of investments and remeasurement of earn-out arrangements. As you know, we sold our interest in SpotX to the U.S. ad tech company, Magnite in April 2021 and received part of the consideration in shares. Magnite's share price increased significantly in the first half of 2024, leading to a re-measurement of the Magnite shares amounting to EUR 44 million. In the first half of 2024, the group's tax expense was EUR 35 million. Given special items and the profit before tax, the effective tax rate was 24% below the normalized tax rate. Moving on to Slide 9, for a closer look at our cash flow. Due to closing of the planned transaction of RTL Nederland, RTL Group will continue to benefit from our cash flows and profits generated by RTL Nederland. This is why we also present our pro forma figures for our cash flow on this slide. Total net cash from operating activities, including RTL Nederland increased to EUR 72 million. Cash outflow for acquisitions of EUR 160 million mainly relates to the acquisition of Asacha Media Group. The operating cash conversion rate for continuing operations was 42%, an improvement for the first half versus the first half of 2023. At the end of June, RTL Group's net debt increased to EUR 1.1 billion compared to EUR 291 million at the end of 2023, resulting from the dividend payments and acquisitions. We do, however, expect our net debt position to improve until the end of the year. For the business review, I will now hand over to Elmar.

Elmar Heggen

executive
#5

Thank you, Bjorn, and let's look at our 3 major business units in greater detail. I'll start with RTL Deutschland on Slide 11. In the first half of 2024, RTL Deutschland continued to grow its streaming service RTL+ dynamically with paying subscribers up 25% year-on-year at almost 5.6 million. Our German family of channels remained, once again, the clear market leader. RTL Deutschland reported a combined average audience share of 27.4% in the target group of viewers aged 14 to 59, extending the lead over our main commercial competitor ProSiebenSat1 to 7.6 percentage points, a new record for the first half. With its strong programming schedule on -- and 11 of 12 Euro matches broadcast in June, our flagship channel, RTL, was the only commercial channel in Germany with growing audience share. The channel reached 10.4% in the commercial target group of viewers aged 14 to 59. Looking now at the financials of RTL Deutschland in the first half of 2024. Total revenue of RTL Deutschland was up 3% to EUR 1.21 billion, driven by higher TV advertising revenue and significantly higher streaming revenue, which were up by almost 45%. These growing revenue streams were partly offset by significantly lower revenue from RTL Deutschland's publishing business, mainly resulting from the disposal and the discontinuation of magazine titles in 2023. Adjusted EBITA increased to EUR 23 million. The positive effects from higher TV advertising revenue and lower streaming startup losses were largely offset by significantly higher content costs for the broadcast of the UEFA Euro matches as explained before. Moving now to Group M6 on the next slide. The French net TV advertising market was estimated to be up 6% compared to the first half of 2023. Total revenue of Group M6 was also up by 6% to EUR 657 million, mainly due to higher TV advertising and streaming revenue. Adjusted EBITA decreased to EUR 122 million, also impacted by higher costs for sports programs. The launch of M6+ has been a major success. Since the launch in mid-May, the M6+ app was downloaded 2.2 million times and is now available on all connected TV devices in France. M6+ enjoys close to 90% awareness rate just weeks after launch, underlying the power of the brand, M6. Average monthly users were up 33% in the first half of 2024, while viewing hours grew by 23% in the reporting period. At the end of July, the French Media Authority Arcom announced that the DTT's licenses for the channels W9, Gulli and Paris Premiere are retained for renewal. Let's now turn to Fremantle on Slide 13. In the first half of 2024, the international market for content production was still impacted by the 2023 U.S. writers and actors strikes and budget cuts of streaming companies and advertising finance broadcasters. We have seen this over the past weeks in the figures disclosed amongst others, for ITV Studios, Newen Studios and Banijay Group. In line with this market development, revenue at Fremantle decreased by 5% to EUR 957 million, lower revenue across several regions was partly offset by scope effects from the first full-time consolidation of Asacha Media Group. Organically, revenue was down 8%, which compares favorably to many of the Fremantle peers. Fremantle's adjusted EBITA remained almost stable at EUR 35 million due to cost control measures. With a strong pipeline for the second half of the year and the consolidation of Asacha, we remain confident that Fremantle's revenue and adjusted EBITA will be significantly -- will be up significantly for the full year 2024. Thomas will come back to this in a minute. He will now take you through the strategy update before presenting the outlook.

Thomas Rabe

executive
#6

Yes. Many thanks, Elmar, and sir Björn. Our strategic framework remains unchanged. It's based on 3 priorities: core; growth; and alliances and partnerships. Core means investing in premium content, strengthening our families of channels as well as cost and portfolio management. Growth areas in our streaming services, advertising technology and addressable TV as well as content production with Fremantle. And alliances and partnerships focused on national international advertising sales via RTL Ad Alliance, joint advertising and streaming technology via Smartclip and Bedrock, and content. Moving on to Slide 16. Let's look at our streaming services in more detail. We are seeing strong growth in paying subscribers, as we mentioned, up 25% compared to the end of June 2023 to around 6.3 million. The first half of 2024 alone, we've added more than 700,000 paying subscribers. The partnership with Deutsche Telekom remains a strong growth driver, but also the direct paying subscribers of RTL+ in Germany or so-called owned and operated for the highest growth in absolute figures in the last few years. Importantly, our subscriber growth translates well into our streaming economics. Streaming revenue was up by 42% in the first half of 2024, as we increased subscription prices in Germany last year with no significant uptick in churn. We're also seeing a high demand for advertising in our streaming services. For example, advertising revenue for RTL+ in Germany was up 49% in the first half. We've operated our services as hybrid models from day 1 and are thus able to respond to this demand. With continuously increasing subscription and advertising revenue and the expected benefits from the planned migration of RTL+ to the technology platform of Bedrock, we are on track to reach our long-term streaming targets and those profitability by 2026. Turning to Slide 17 and Fremantle. As you know, one of our strategic priorities is the expansion of our global content business, Fremantle. As part of Fremantle's boost plan to reach full year revenue of EUR 3 billion by 2026, Fremantle has grown its portfolio organically and via M&A across all genres and regions with acquisitions in the U.S., U.K., Italy, the Nordics, Asia and Australia. As I said in March, the focus is now increasingly on integrating the acquired business into the Fremantle network and improving margins. We plan to maintain the average gross margin of Fremantle at the current level of approximately 20% and to reduce overhead to approximately 11% of revenue. As a result, adjusted EBITA margin will gradually increase towards 9%. To move on to Slide 18. Long-term running formats and IP rights remain the foundation for the success of Fremantle. As you can see, Fremantle has a strong portfolio of established strong format brands or they are in multiple countries. We own significant IP rights to many of the formats, including the Price Is Right, Idols, Got Talent and Family Feud. In addition, Fremantle produces long-running daily drama series such as Gute Zeiten, schlechte Zeiten, Unter Uns, Neighbours and a docuseries, Deadliest Catch, which is in its 20th season on the Discovery Channel in the U.S. Creating new hit formats and standout successes such as Oscar-winning film, Poor Things, confidence in the business and positions Fremantle as a partner of choice for creative talent. Fremantle has a broad revenue mix, production, licensing and global distribution business and advertising via YouTube and FAST channels. Let's move on to the outlook for 2024 on Slide 19. The impact of the geopolitical and macroeconomic environment on RTL Group's businesses continues to be hard-to-predict. Assuming a slight recovery of the German TV advertising market and broadly stable advertising markets in our other territories, the full year. We continue to expect full year revenue for 2024 to increase to around EUR 6.6 billion. And this is based on higher revenue from RTL Deutschland, mainly driven by strong growth in streaming revenue and from Fremantle, mainly driven by a recovery in the U.S. market after the strikes and by acquisitions. We continue to expect our adjusted EBITA for 2024 to be around EUR 750 million, with a variance of plus/minus EUR 50 million depending on the advertising markets. This adjusted EBITA outlook includes 3 main factors: first, higher content costs of around EUR 65 million, primarily for sports programs; lower nonrecurring items; and high profit contributions from RTL Deutschland and Fremantle. As mentioned in March, 2024 will be another backloaded year, meaning that the second half and in particular, the fourth quarter will determine the full year results. Finally, our dividend policy remains unchanged. RTL Group will continue to pay out at least 80% of the adjusted full year net result whilst maintaining a balance between investing in the transformation of our businesses while paying attractive cash returns to our shareholders. As Björn said earlier, we remain confident to receive approval for the envisaged sale of RTL Nederland to DPG Media and to close the transaction around the end of 2024. The capital gain from the transaction will be largely tax exempt and will amount to approximately EUR 800 million. RTL Group's shareholders will benefit from the transaction in line with the dividend policy I just stated. This brings us to the end of our regular presentation. I'll now hand over to Thomas Servatius to present the partnership between RTL Group's ad-tech business Smartclip and Virtual Minds of ProSiebenSat1. Over to you.

Thomas Servatius

executive
#7

Thank you very much, Thomas, and hello, everyone. Thank you for listening. I'm Thomas Servatius, co-CEO of Smartclip, the home for RTL Group's advertising technology activities. Today, I want to give you a deeper insight into our advertising technology partnership with Virtual Minds, ad-tech venture [ on ] ProSiebenSat.1. The advertising landscape is changing significantly. We see a structural shift. Linear TV viewership is still massive, but continues to decrease in particular, among younger target groups. At the same time, non-linear streaming services for TV consumptions are on the rise. This transformation creates new opportunities for broadcasters. Total video consumption in Germany, for example, is above the level of 2012 and younger target groups can now be reached again through streaming services. These shifts and the interim fragmentation that comes with it are also substantial challenges for advertisers and media agencies. For them, it has become more difficult to plan and optimize their budgets for video advertising. The key reason, as of today, there is no technical approach to unify all these different consumption channels. Instead, linear TV buying is still following the classic model, predominantly reliant on panel data while digital TV mostly follows digital buying logics. We are convinced that the market needs a technology that unifies these 2 approaches into a single solution for buying advertising inventories, a solution that optimizes budgets across all the [indiscernible] fragmented TV channels, especially for RTL with the growing usage of RTL+, we need technology that optimizes both linear TV and streaming TV. This is what we aim to deliver together with Virtual Minds. Let's look at what is planned on the next slide. In a nutshell, the key goal of our partnership with Virtual Minds is to create holistic TV advertising and technology solution that merges the world of linear TV and streaming TV. To this end, we will utilize each other's strengths, which are quite complementary. RTL has focused on developing technology solutions for digital TV, specifically for addressable TV, online video and connected TV or CTV. Virtual Minds on the other hand, has developed innovative approaches for the digitization of linear TV advertising. The combined solution developed by this partnership will follow the latest paradigms of digital advertising. First, it will be data-driven. We will use panel data, which has been the standard for classical TV and enrich this with anonymized behavioral data from millions of smart TVs in Germany. Second, we will employ the option-driven approach across the whole TV universe. This is fundamental to programmatic advertising sales and an efficient market mechanism to optimize the value of inventory for both advertisers and media companies. Third, all solutions will be driven by AI and machine learning technologies. This, in combination with more data points will allow for superior ad decisioning algorithms. And fourth, we will use real-time optimization for digital TV and for the linear TV ecosystem, which is the true revolution. As a result, we will have technology solutions for both the buy and supply side, that means those that want to buy advertising and those providing the advertising inventories. On the buy side, we are aiming for a strong standardization, unification and simplified buying across the entire TV universe. On the supply side, we will also use unified technologies where the solutions for linear TV will be provided by the media manager from Virtual Minds. The one-to-one digital advertising solutions shared across ProSiebenSat1 and RTL will be provided by Smartclip and our seller-side ad insertion solution Yospace. These solutions cover the entire linear TV and digital TV universe of both RTL [ 7 ] and ProSiebenSat1. This means there is a truly unified set of technologies for every aspect of ad-tech, providing a unified and standardized approach for buying and selling on both broadcasters inventory. Let me give you an example of how this new portfolio of technologies can change TV advertising. In the past, linear TV advertising was mostly based purely on [ ex-post ] panel data used for ex under planning of TV campaigns up to months and days in advance. In the new universe, we use real-time data from smart TVs to monitor, the real target group coverage of linear TV seconds before a linear TV ad break is broadcasted. This data is used to check if the actual TV viewership corresponds to the expected TV audience when the TV ad break was planned. If we find a strong difference between expected and actual target audience, we are adjusting the linear TV ad break by selecting ads, which better match the actual viewership demographics. This happens only a few seconds before the linear TV ad break has played out, which allows us to optimize the linear TV target group matching near real time. At the same time, through our measurement technologies, digital TV usage is also monitored and evaluated. If we find that the target group can be more efficiently reached on digital assets, we are switching the budgets there. To summarize, we are not only optimizing for linear TV, but are also capable of providing optimized decision-making across both linear and digital TV. This allows us to optimize incremental reach for advertisers or to avoid reach duplication within the different consumption channels. Our partnerships comes with benefits for both advertisers and sales houses, an important aspect to making this work and accepted in the market. For advertisers and media agencies, the new portfolio of solutions will allow for much more unified and simplified access to both digital and linear TV inventory through a single access point. The combined technologies allow for cross-channel measurement and optimization of both reach and ROI for any marketing investments. For the sales houses, it has been proven that through the broader usage of data for the optimization of linear TV, the monetization of this area of TV inventories is improving. And with the unified technology universe between linear TV and digital TV, we can develop new advertising solutions for our advertising clients, for example, incremental reach optimization across different TV consumption channels, which with a simplified and digital like TV buying experiences, we are regaining access to those digital native advertisers who have grown their brands exclusively on competing services such as YouTube or Facebook, by being able to provide a similar buying experience and digital KPIs in real time. As you can see on the next slide, we are in the middle of implementing this project. Currently, we are working on the implementation and integration of the different technology aspects. By next year, we will start enabling further use cases through the combined set of technologies one by one. Our long-term vision is to create a European TV ecosystem that offers the same benefits for advertisers and broadcasters on a European scale, not just in Germany. The new solution adds digital features to linear TV and represents a true innovation of the TV ecosystem as a whole. In fact, the 2 competing broadcasters are choosing to collaborate on the technology side to gain the necessary scale and assets to compete with the big U.S. platforms is an important signal to the European market. We believe alliances and partnerships are a key element to build a competitive TV landscape across Europe. And with that, I'm handing back to Thomas. Thank you very much for your attention.

Thomas Rabe

executive
#8

Well, many thanks, Thomas, and thank you for your attention. We'll now take your questions.

Operator

operator
#9

[Operator Instructions] And the first question comes from Julien Roch from Barclays.

Julien Roch

analyst
#10

Yes. The first one is, can you give us some indication of advertising trends in your main market? And then the second question is on Page 21, thank you very much for the data, could we get the linear data on that page, so we can do the split using the total number? And then a second question on Page 21, can we have the same data for RTL maybe first half '23 and first half '24 in Germany as M6 already give us France.

Thomas Rabe

executive
#11

All right. Well, first, on the trends. I mean, we provided all the data for the first half of the year, including data on the significant advertising market share gains in Germany driven by a strong audience performance. We currently have visibility on the third quarter and frankly, primarily in August and a bit on September, not so much on Q4. So the month of July was relatively weak. It was down single-digit in Germany. The month of August will be down double-digits probably minus 12% in Germany, primarily driven by the Olympic Games and the audience on public broadcasters. But we see an uptick in September. We're currently positive in September. We've seen that in September, advertising revenue in Germany would be up. And that means that in Q3, advertising revenue will be down combined all 3 months together compared to prior year. But we are confident and hopeful based on market indications that Q4 will be up. And all this means based and that leads to our outlook is that we think that the German market will be up slightly with us outperforming the market, as we did in the first half. And the other markets be broadly flat or slightly up. And if that is the case, combined with efficient cost control and uptick of the Fremantle profit, we should be able to reach our EUR 750 million on EBITA target and guidance for the year. %On the additional numbers on Page 21, you referred to, Bjorn?

Björn Bauer

executive
#12

I think it's the minutes, right?

Thomas Rabe

executive
#13

Well, I think maybe we don't do this now, if that's okay with you. Julien, we'll provide these numbers to you and to the colleagues, we can include them in the slides, which we put on our website. And if you have any further questions on the data, please let us know. Okay.

Oliver Fahlbusch

executive
#14

Linear and non linear viewing hours, right?

Thomas Rabe

executive
#15

Yes.

Julien Roch

analyst
#16

Yes, yes, for the market [ and for in ] Germany.

Thomas Rabe

executive
#17

We'll get you that.

Operator

operator
#18

And the next question comes from Nizla Naizer from Deutsche Bank.

Fathima-Nizla Naizer

analyst
#19

I have 2 from my end. Firstly, thank you for giving us an update on the RTL Nederlands transaction. I just wanted to maybe get some color from you as to what backs your confidence that the transaction would go through by the end of this year, some additional color on how you're thinking about it would be great. My second question is on the price increases in streaming. How does price of RTL+ now compared to peers or other competitive offerings in the market in Germany? And do you think there's more scope for further price increases to come? So how should we think about how you're thinking about pricing? Is it going to be a more for more kind of strategy going forward? Yes, some color would be great.

Thomas Rabe

executive
#20

Okay. Well, let's start with RTL Nederlands. We are continuing to be confident that the transaction will be approved quite simply based on the market definitions or definitions of relevant markets, which the authorities have got in the past. If we look at DPG, and DPG is active in multiple media business in the Netherlands, but not in TV. So by their condition, they don't have the market share in TV and by buying RTL Nederland, they don't increase their market share. They just acquired a market share of RTL Nederlands. So based on the competition, 3 of the competition authorities in Europe, which define a TV [indiscernible] market as relevant market. It's difficult to see how this transaction could raise any concerns. The authorities are looking at a number of aspects of the transaction, all of which are well understood. The conglomerate effect, plurality of media and journalistic, services, as I said, we are cooperating with the authorities we are making or we that, is the buyer, DPG making the data available that is necessary to come to a final assessment. And as I said, are confident. But based on existing competition of 3 of the authorities in Europe, the deal will be greenlit before the end of the year. On the price increase, I mean, the main service or product of RTL, the premium product, which is a video product, which is at EUR 6.99. We increased the price from EUR 4.99 last year with hardly any additional churn, which shows that our offer is attractive and people don't want to live without it. We think there's significant potential for further price increases as we continue to invest in the product. In content, in particular, but also in the user experience. The EUR 6.99 compared very well with prices of other services. I mean the Netflix standard rate in Germany is EUR 13.99, so that's almost twice what we are charging. So we'll be looking at price increases in the next month or so. We'll do a proper analysis on the market on price elasticity of demand and will then take the appropriate actions. The EUR 6.99 product, is a video product only. The Max product, which includes other media categories in audio and tax is at EUR 9.99, and this product is also picking up nicely. What we're seeing is that the consumer better understands the concept of the multipurpose app. And those users who subscribe to the multipurpose app or the Max app, they use the app more than the video-only users, the churn rates are lower. I said EUR 9.99 a surprise, that's the current price or the price for the first month, the regular price is EUR 12.99, which kicks in, I believe, after 3 months. So that's where we stand. So we think we have price potential, and we are confident on RTL Nederland.

Operator

operator
#21

[Operator Instructions] So it seems there are no further questions -- one moment. There is one question coming up from Annick Maas from Bernstein.

Annick Maas

analyst
#22

My question is just on Fremantle. I mean what you've seen some other things have seen this pressure on trends. Can you just talk about your '26 guidance? I know quite a bit of it is due to M&A, but -- just can you maybe give us an idea of how much is going to be organic versus non-organic of that guidance?

Thomas Rabe

executive
#23

Yes. Well, I mean, Fremantle as other production companies is in, I would say, a transition year with the knock-on effects of the U.S. situation last year, the actors and the writers strike, which Elmar referred to. But also the buying behavior of some of our customers, both networks and streamers who are on some cost pressure as you know. So it's not just a matter of how much they buy, but also the terms at which they buy. Fremantle, we believe, is well placed given the very strong performance. We have that performed well on the broadcasters and networks and on the streamers. We expect this year's revenue to be around EUR 2.5 billion. We expect the market -- and that includes acquisitions, absolutely on the full year basis. So we've pro forma the Asacha and Beach House acquisition that would lead to EUR 2.5 billion. So EUR 500 million to go to the EUR 3 billion target, but we come from EUR 1.5 billion, so we made some progress already, I'd say. We think that the market will return to a normalized growth rate of 4.5% [ to 5%, I think ]. The guidance you're also getting from other production companies, including ITV Studios. We've made significant progress on reducing our overheads already. And that's why I'm confident that our overhead ratio will go down to approximately 11% by 2026 and the gross margin, which I referred to of 20% is the gross margin, which corresponds to our current business mix and that's a margin which we've achieved in the last years. So that's where we are. So EUR 2.5 billion this year, assumed 4% to 5% growth rate organically in '25 and '26 would bring us to approximately EUR 2.7 billion, apply 20% gross margin on this and 11% overheads and you come to an EBIT margin, which is just below 9%. So that's in very simple terms, the with the mathematics underlying our guidance for Fremantle.

Operator

operator
#24

Ladies and gentlemen, this was the last question. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Oliver Fahlbusch, for any closing remarks.

Oliver Fahlbusch

executive
#25

Yes. Thank you very much for your interest in RTL Group's interim results for the first half of 2024. If there are further questions during the day, Irina and myself, we will be available to answer the questions. And apart from that, we all wish you a good weekend already, and good summer. All the best. Thank you.

Operator

operator
#26

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now over. Thank you for choosing Chorus Call, and thank you for participating in the conference. You may now disconnect your lines. Goodbye.

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