Ryman Healthcare Limited (RYM) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Morena. Tena kotou, tena koutou, tena koutou katoa. Good morning, everyone. I'm Richard Umbers, Group Chief Executive Officer of Ryman Healthcare and I'm delighted to be here to present our full year results for the year ended 31st of March. Here with me in Christchurch, I have Dave Bennett, our Group CFO. As previously announced, Dave will be transitioning into the Chief Strategy Officer role and remains the CFO until a new appointment is made. We'll be happy to answer questions at the end of this presentation and we're hoping to wrap up within 60 minutes. Today, we're announcing a solid result. We delivered this while taking a number of steps to reposition the business for future growth and for improved financial performance. This result was achieved in a challenging economic environment, compounded by significant weather events and the tail end impacts from COVID. Our result confirms healthy demand for what we offer. Our Australian business continues to go from strength to strength. Following our recent $902.4 million equity raise, we have reset our balance sheet. Importantly, our gearing has reduced to 33.1%, which is within our new medium-term target of 30% to 35%. In line with previous communications, the Board has confirmed that there will be no final dividend for FY '23. The Board anticipates making an announcement on Board renewal, including the appointment of a new Chair in the near future. During the presentation, we'll discuss the results in detail as well as changes we've made to the business. You'll notice some new metrics and improved disclosure in specific areas. So, starting off with the headline numbers. Underlying profit of $301.9 million increased by 18.4%, driven by strong retail margins and a growing contribution from the Australian business. Our reported or IFRS profit decreased by 62.8% to $257.8 million due to lower revaluation gains and costs associated with early USPP repayment. To help our decision-making and tracking of progress this year, we've also highlighted 2 new metrics; free cash flow and operating EBITDA. Free cash flow demonstrates the total cash generated or used by the business, including full development before any external financing from our debt or equity holders. Ryman invested $1.04 billion in portfolio development in FY '23 and finished the year with net operating cash flows of $650.8 million, resulting in a free cash outflow of $389 million. As we previously indicated to the market, we're targeting positive free cash flow by FY '25. We've also introduced operating EBITDA as a key metric to track performance. This metric focuses on the performance of our existing operations, excluding the impacts of development earnings, interest, depreciation and amortization. Our operating EBITDA is up 29.4% year-on-year. Neither of the 2 new metrics are intended to replace underlying profit but rather to give you a broader perspective on how the business is tracking. Before I talk to strategy, I'd also like to reiterate that our core purpose remains unchanged. We'll continue to operate a vertically integrated business model based around the best continuum of care in each market. We'll continue to offer unparalleled resident experiences and care that is truly good enough for mom and dad, but focused on doing so in a commercially viable way. Our sustainable growth model strikes a balance between development and optimizing the existing operations. To improve cash recovery from development, we are focused on 3 core things. Firstly, rebalancing our portfolio to lower density town house style developments. Secondly, rightsizing our care offering and thirdly, introducing care suites and other design innovations to meet growing market expectations for a premium care offering. Turning now to our existing villages. We're optimizing our pricing strategy, including a trial of alternative DMF structures. Secondly, we're maximizing resales via our refurbishment program. And thirdly, we're placing an increased focus on operational efficiencies. You can expect us to continue bringing new villages to market in carefully selected locations based on local demand and a strong commercial model. We remain very positive about the age and wealth demographic in both New Zealand and in Australia. Our equity raise at the end of the financial year was a very significant event and was strongly supported. Thank you to all our shareholders who participated. The completion of the raise enabled us to strengthen our balance sheet through the repayment of debt, leaving us better able to execute our growth framework. The total cost of repaying our USPP notes and associated swaps was $855.5 million, reducing net debt from $3 billion at September to $2.3 billion at the year-end. In conjunction with the raise, we have been able to adjust key covenant ratios, which will give us additional flexibility in the current high interest rate environment. We have provided additional disclosure on these covenant ratios in the appendices. During the year, we continued to invest strongly in portfolio development to meet the growing demand for our product, which is underpinned by positive age and wealth demographics. Within our investment program this year, we have continued to meet our obligation to residents by progressing 6 high capital intensity main buildings across the portfolio. Overall, we have reprioritized our development program to achieve 2 key outcomes. Firstly, remixing our land bank with lower density villages that have an improved cash flow profile and secondly, rightsizing our care offering for future developments. If we looked at these 6 projects today under our new investment criteria, we would not build care centers with this capital intensity. I'll talk to our development program just a little later. Our portfolio of RV units and aged care beds increased by 821 in FY '23. This movement comprised of 519 units and beds, which were fully complete. And by that, I mean, you could physically move in. 302 additional units and beds, which have been included on a near complete basis. And the criteria for near complete differs across different unit types. Units and beds within main buildings are included on the same proportion of the percentage of costs incurred, but only where we've spent at least 60% of the projected total cost. For units outside of the main buildings, we assess inclusion based on a number of factors, including the stage of the development, the percentage of cost incurred and the resident move-in date. The net increase of 821 was lower than our prior FY '23 guidance of approximately 1,000 units and beds due to weather events and the related impacts that incurred after our guidance was given. A material driver of this was the cyclone in the Hawke's Bay, which has materially delayed construction time frames at James Wattie. This remains a longer-term issue and will directly impact the delivery of future stages. Given that we didn't achieve the 60% threshold at James Wattie for its main building, we did not include 109 care beds and serviced apartments in our portfolio movement. In addition, severe weather events impacted all projects in Auckland where a significant proportion of our development is located. I would also like to highlight that a large proportion of the build rate shortfall in FY '23 relates to the main buildings and to care beds. Care is paramount to what we do. It's in our name. We're a market leader in this space and we have been for some time. In Australia, our continuum of care model is widely talked about as a game changer. At the opening of the new $30 million apartment block at our Nellie Melba Retirement Village, Victorian Premier, Daniel Andrews praised the quality of staff and the vibrant community at our village. Throughout the year, Ryman has maintained the highest standards of care and resident experience remains a key priority. 82% of our New Zealand villages have 4-year certification. In Australia, all 4 of our operational care centers received a 4-star rating following the launch of a new rating system for aged care. Aged care occupancy for mature villages has improved steadily throughout the second half to over 96% at March 2023. This again demonstrates the quality of our care operations and the strength of our brand. Sadly, we continue to see a decline in the overall availability of care beds in the broader market because of funding pressures and, of course, skill shortages. There have been some recent welcome developments, including the recent Australian budget and additional funding for nursing pay parity in New Zealand, but the overall situation is far from resolved. I want to assure you that we are actively campaigning both for a rewrite of the aged care residential or the ARC contract, as it's called, in New Zealand and for a co-contribution model in care in Australia. The launch of the company's sustainability strategy during the year was a major milestone in our journey to a sustainable future. In consultation with stakeholders, the company identified a number of key projects that will be undertaken in coming years. As a step towards addressing our environmental impact, Ryman secured an exclusive agreement with renewable energy developer, Solar Bay, a first for the retirement sector. The solar farm is expected to generate 30-gigawatt hours of renewable energy and save an estimated 3,294 tonnes of carbon a year. With that, I'd like to pause and perhaps hand over to Dave to run you through the financials in a bit more detail.

Thanks, Richard. Good morning, everyone. I hope you're keeping well. It's fair to say, it's been another unique and challenging year for the business. Before we dive into the financials, I want to take a moment to look at some of the key performance indicators for the business over the last 12 months. Booked sales of occupation rights have been stable year-on-year, despite softer housing market conditions. Pleasingly, our margins for both new sales and resales have been strong and we finished the year with just 2.1% of resale stock available. This was up slightly on the prior year but is still at very manageable levels. Our average occupancy in mature aged care centers was robust at 95% throughout the year, notwithstanding COVID challenges through the winter months of 2022, and it has actually rebounded to over 96% at year-end. Now, moving into a deeper dive of the numbers. Our IFRS profit decreased 62.8% to $257.8 million. The fall was driven by 2 main factors. First, a smaller unrealized revaluation uplift on investment property due to softer valuation assumptions and also costs relating to the repayment of our USPP and associated swaps. I'd also like to note that our aged care centers received a valuation uplift in FY '23, in line with our 2-yearly valuation cycle. This uplift has taken through reserves and is therefore only visible on the balance sheet and isn't affected in the profit. Underlying profit of $301.9 million is up 18.4% year-on-year and ahead of guidance we provided in February of $280 million to $290 million. This difference was largely due to resale volumes through February and March. Our Australian business has had a strong year, with underlying profit lifting 36.1% to $69.7 million and has now gone to nearly 1/4 of our group underlying profit. As mentioned earlier, we have introduced some new disclosures. This breakdown of our profit and loss movement starts with a non-GAAP presentation of underlying profit and bridges this back to our reported profit. I would like to draw your attention to our operating EBITDA. This metric focused on the performance of our existing operations, excluding the impacts of development earnings, interest, depreciation and amortization. Up until FY '22, operating EBITDA has been relatively flat as you can see on this chart. This reflects cost pressures that have been matched by additional funding specifically in our care centers during those years. While these funding challenges remain, these pressures have slightly been offset by growing contribution from resale margins and management fees. And FY '23, operating EBITDA has lifted 29.4% to $272.6 million. This growth has primarily been driven by retail margins as a result of villages that were built in higher-value locations in recent years, having now started to mature. This has resulted in higher resale margins on increasing volumes and therefore, increasing our management fees as well. As you can see on this chart here, our resale pricing, which is shown by the orange line, has lifted materially in FY '22 and FY '23 and now sits at $714,000. That's 42% higher than it was just 5 years ago. Our average new sale pricing has also lifted. It now sits at $905,000, up 35% on 5 years ago. This slide here provides a snapshot of the key sales metrics for our retirement village units. As mentioned earlier, our box sales of RV units has been stable with 1,519 sales in FY '23, broadly flat on FY '22. Booked resales lifted 7.5% to 1,057 units. Booked new sales fell 17.5% to 462 units and this predominantly reflects the challenging market conditions in the second half in New Zealand. Resale margins during the year lifted to 31.1% in FY '23. Our implied resale margin for our resale bank sits at 24.9%. However, this will be on higher value units and volumes are expected to continue to grow in the future years. New sales margins on developments also remained strong at 29.4%, underpinned by strong performance in Australia, which delivered margins of 32.7%. Our resale bank affects the gross resale uplift, which will be realized if all of our retirement village units were resold today. This currently sits at $1.78 billion. And this is -- while this is down on March 2022, this is due to the realization of resale margin through FY '23. Accrued management fees and resident loans reflect the timing difference between when contracted management fees are accrued and when they are realized. This is a key component of our embedded value. FY '23 free cash outflow of $389 million was driven by $650.8 million of net operating cash flows and $1.04 billion of net investing cash flows. As Richard mentioned earlier, we have reprioritized our development program to achieve positive free cash flow by FY '25. This includes remixing our land bank with lower density villages that have an improved cash profile and rightsizing our care offering for future development. Total [ RADs ] increased to $300 million, resulting in a net cash inflow of $100 million during the year. While New Zealand contributed half of this increase, the opportunity for RADs remains substantial with only 9% of our occupied beds in New Zealand having a RAD at year-end. Following the completion of our capital raise and repayment of USPP notes, our balance sheet has been received. Alongside our shareholders, our banking syndicate, institutional term loan holders and retail bondholders have been incredibly supportive of the business. In conjunction with the equity raise, our interest coverage covenant has been amended from 2.25x to 1.75x through to March 2025. In line with our focus on improved disclosure, we have set out our covenant calculations in the appendices. We are compliant with all covenants at 31 March, 2023. We had $577 million of funding headroom across our undrawn bank facilities and cash on hand at year-end. As Richard mentioned at the start of the presentation, I will be transitioning into the Chief Strategy Officer role when the new CFO is appointed. I would like to assure you that I remain committed to playing my part and delivering on our plans. And at this point, I'd like to hand back to Richard.

Thanks, Dave. Turning to development activity. As you will see on the next 2 slides, there has been significant progress made over the past year. We've recently completed our Linda Jones Village and have commenced construction at Cambridge in New Zealand. This means we now have 9 sites under construction in New Zealand. Our land bank is in good shape and 2 sites, that's Karori and Rolleston achieved resource consent. During the year, we added Taupo to the land bank and Newtown is currently being held for sale. While in some ways, it's disappointing to be selling sites, this also demonstrates our focus on capital discipline. If we don't think a site will achieve a viable return, then we won't build it. Looking to Victoria, we are now building across 5 sites, a reduction of 2 sites compared to FY '22, having completed Charles Brownlow and Raelene Boyle during the year. Consenting activity has also been a highlight in Australia with both our Mulgrave and Mount Eliza sites receiving planning approval. As announced at the half year, we have divested our Mount Martha site. Guidance for the year remains in line with that given in our equity raise outlook statement. FY '24 underlying profit is expected to be in the range of $310 million to $330 million. Our portfolio is expected to grow by 750 to 800 aged care beds and units. And as I said earlier, we expect to invest between 0.8 and $1 billion through FY '24. The Board will consider the resumption of paying dividends in FY '24, taking into account trading performance, cash flow and market conditions. Our medium-term outlook remains unchanged. During this year, we've not only delivered a solid result but have also taken important steps to reposition the business to capitalize on the significant growth opportunities which lie ahead in both New Zealand and Australia. The strength of the Ryman team gives me every confidence that we will deliver on our care promise, reposition the business to capitalize on future opportunities and improve financial performance. The team continues to impress with their dedication and commitment and I wish to thank everyone for their efforts. I'd also like to thank all of our shareholders for your continued support through this journey. And with that, I'll now open up to questions. And please note that we plan to wrap up at 11:30. Operator?

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Nick Mar from Macquarie.

Just on the build rate [indiscernible] can you just talk through sort of what's caused, I guess, the units to slip out the back end of FY '24? Meaning that those that were disrupted by the weather events weren't sort of additive to the '24 delivery target.

Obviously, when we gave that guidance, that was pre the storms that took place. And obviously, we had the cyclone in the Hawke's Bay, but actually severe weather throughout the North Island and that significantly slowed down the developments. Importantly, though, those were the village centers and heavily made up of care beds, which, of course, are part of our PPE and therefore, don't go into the profit result. So although, the build number was down by the traditional way it's looked at, of course, that didn't affect the profit. And indeed, it was because of the storms. There is a flow on impact from that, however, if you take a location like James Wattie, for example, the issue now post storm is that it's very difficult to get the raw materials and the labor because it's largely involved with the cleanup of the broader area and it is cost prohibitive for us to accelerate that in order to bring it on-stream more quickly. So, I believe we've got the optimal result even if there has been some step back in the delivery of units.

And then just on the resale stock, can you just walk through what you're seeing out there in the sort of market and the drivers of that lifting? Is it people not wanting to contract as soon as settlement as [ rebuilt times ]. I'm sure it's probably all of the above but any sort of color would be appreciated.

I think there's quite a broad range of factors in that dynamic. I mean, the encouraging thing from our point of view is that we still continue to enjoy strong demand, and we've got strong databases of people looking to move in, which supports demand and it supports pricing. On the other hand, people who are very committed to us and looking to move in, certainly, the broader economic conditions make it difficult in some circumstances, for example, to sell their own property. And that delays then them being able to move in and come to us. And with that, we see some of the cash that we would get in normally from settlements being pushed out. But I think it's more that the demand is still there. It's a matter of timing when we get that money in. But certainly, we're like any other developer at the moment, where I guess, subject to the poor housing market in New Zealand. I would contrast that, however, with what's going on in Australia, where actually the results have been very encouraging. The sale of serviced apartments has been particularly strong and there's an appendix that breaks all of that down. And equally, the sales of the new sales have been much stronger over there. So, we do see a different market dynamic operating in the 2 markets. And to some extent, the Australian business for us has been a hedge against the deteriorating conditions in New Zealand. Dave, do you want to add anything to that?

No, I thought that's largely covered. But your points Nick are valid. It's a bit of an all of the above just with, as I said, but there's also being I guess, I think a slight increase in the number of people transitioning through or vacating units as well, sort of closer to year-end, which -- they're taking a little bit longer to sell, that's more noticeable in a short period. But the underlying demand is still very strong.

And just one more for me before I jump off. The contract is not booked number. Is there any sort of change in the way that you're selling or accounting for stuff given how much that sort of come off versus start?

No. The biggest change is probably just the -- how early we're releasing things the sale ahead of construction, just with where the construction market is and costs associated with it. We are just making sure that we are sort of keeping those a little bit closer aligned than what we've probably had historically. So, that's been one of the key drivers for that.

Your next question comes from Stephen Ridgewell from Craigs Investment Partners.

Look, first of all, guys, thanks for additional disclosure provided in the appendix as it is appreciated and noted. I just wanted to follow-up on Nick's question, sorry, on the -- I think it was the lowest new sales volumes in the second half and you kind of, called out the poor weather delaying some construction. But also note in appendix 23, looks like you've kind of hit an increase potentially in unsold new stock of about 130 units. If you had the completed -- near completed units together and presumably they are available for sale to residents. Can you just perhaps comment a little bit more about whether you're seeing resident demand for new units holding up? And perhaps is there a difference between New Zealand and Australia?

There's a couple of parts to that fully Steve, that we will cover off, but the New Zealand is more challenging than Australia at the moment and it's probably having the 2 markets that we're currently participating in is very beneficial and that we're seeing very, very strong demand for what we do in New Zealand, but the new sale market in New Zealand is probably more challenging. A lot of that unsold new sales stock too relates to serviced apartments as well as the main buildings are coming online. So, what typically happens with your serviced apartments as you might sell 10% to 15% of those when the units complete and built. And the remaining serviced apartments will sell down over the next sort of 12 to 24 months because they are a need-based portfolio. So, that's another contributing factor, but we are probably Auckland in particular as well. Some of the apartments up there are taking slightly longer to sell, which is why you are seeing us sort of be a bit more cautious with the build program going into next year and in the following year as well just as we wait for that market to pick back up. Long-term demand still very confident about all of that, but there's just a little bit of short-term noise as we're seeing with a lot of things on the property market at the moment.

Perhaps I could just add to that by saying that perhaps what skews this slightly is that the large proportion of main centers that are currently in construction, we have a strong obligation to our residents to complete those. And so we do continue to spend money on completing them. I think we wouldn't be doing that again in the same way to have this number coming on-stream. And indeed, the capital recycling of those main centers is not as strong as we would ordinarily want it to be. And what it means is that as those main blocks come to fruition, large amounts of stock are released at one particular time on to the market specifically and it's much harder to sell large volumes of stock but hit the market all at one time, selling the more traditional mix of care beds or main center or [ inside ] property to independent living, the independent living is normally a more efficient vehicle for recycling capital than the main centers and that's just a legacy issue that we're dealing with. We're working through it, coming out the other side and the mix shift that you're seeing will become stronger as time progresses and we get out of those more capital-intensive sites.

And then just, Richard, on your comments in the prepared remarks about trialing new DMF structures. Could you elaborate a little bit on what you mean by that? I think you mentioned at the Investor Day, you had done some -- or the team had done some work on that and didn't think there was a free lunch there. So, just -- can you just give us a little more information about what you're trialing?

Probably, the way I would sort of talk about this in a broader context is towards the end of the last year, as the interest rates went up and the property market stagnated, we knew we had to face into that challenge and address go-to-market proposition with a different mix of tools. And we started experimenting, I guess, with other team structures rolling out, for example, sales force infrastructure to get a much better handle on our databases, then new systems for triaging who was out there and who would be good prospects for us and who were the right kind of people to move in. And I think we sort of invented a new model through that, that has been highly effective and we saw some of the gains from that in the last couple of months of the year. One of those components was experimenting with DMF structures because quite clearly, there's a toggle between the ticket price on a village and also the proportion of DMF people play. And there is a cohort out there that particularly in a declining property market, the money that people are getting from the home they're selling isn't perhaps where they wanted it to be. And would they be interested in a higher DMF structure and a lower ticket price requiring less capital outlay, what it turned out is that there was an appetite for that in some sectors of the market. So, we've started trialing different structures in order to accommodate different cohorts of population out there with some success I might add and I see that expanding over a period of time as we get to see and analyze the results of that trial.

And with the expectation at this point, Richard, that that's going to be neutral to the business overall, but perhaps improve appetite from residents as opposed to continuing the cash flow profile, so how do you...

If you analyzed it on a unique sale basis, I think that would be right that we see it as neutral. However, of course, the go-to-market proposition, if that strengthens because we have a broader range of tools to appeal to residents in different cohorts, then you'd expect the demand to respond positively. And therefore, we do get a benefit. But it's, I guess, spread over the portfolio effect of having a broader customer base or higher demand, which then plays through into the overall result. But on a unit basis, that would be correct, yes.

And then just on the comments on RAD, you've called out New Zealand at 9% and it has been a project, if you like, underway for a couple of years now to increase the number of New Zealand care beds with [ bundle test ], can you give us an idea based on what you -- you should freely advance that now, but what proportion of beds could have RAD attached in the New Zealand business and how much cash that might release?

Perhaps a starting point is to say that it isn't a commonly understood or known model in New Zealand. So, some of this is about communicating what it's all about in order to get traction on it. I think what's very encouraging though is just the sheer lift that we've had in RADs showing that there is a market for it. And obviously, it's something that we're seeking to encourage.

And I think it's something that is going to sort of play out in the next couple of years with how the funding piece works, Stephen, because obviously, at the moment, we have our traditional care rooms, which we are offering pay for your room premium, either through a weekly room premium charge or through a RAD. But as we've touched on, we're also looking to do care suites in the future. So, it's going to be part of the wider value proposition for us and how that works. The best indicator in Australia, you often hear operators talking 50% to 70%, I think it's quite some time before we get to that level in New Zealand because at the moment we are the only operator doing that. But as the sector works through the funding challenges that are facing us at the moment, one of the key aspects of that is, is not just the operating cost sort of funding left but also how do we start to make a bit of return on capital and do we follow the Australian model where we split out the care fee from the accommodation component. And that would be likely drive to the RAD model and the care suite model or care apartment model with or as DMF on that becoming a lot more prevalent as well. So, I think there's plenty of upside, but I probably wouldn't want to put a number on it right now, but plenty of upside.

And just one more for me. So, just in terms of the guidance for $310 million to $330 million, which is reiterated from what you said in February, but it's kind of still well ahead of consensus as of yesterday. Can you just give us a bit of an indication around some of the key assumptions for new sales kind of volumes and margins and resales volume and margins that book in the top and the bottom end. And then I'm particularly interested as to whether that range assumed or that range assumes for unit prices? Are you sort of assuming flat unit prices or if you could allow for some decline? Or can you just give us some sense of the assumptions there, please?

Assumptions aren't drastically different to this year in terms of pricing. We're assuming stable pricing as part of that. One of the key drivers though of that, obviously, is the -- we would expect increased resale volumes, in particular, as our villages continue to mature and as our resale earnings obviously lift with that. So, more volumes, I'd still think similar higher margins in terms of resale margins is what we've experienced this year because even though our implied resale margin and the resale bank is at 25%, majority of the units that we would be expecting to come up for units is that transacted last for 3, 4, 7, even 10 years ago. So, there's significant sort of pent-up gains in net pricing. So, still expecting really strong unit pricing gains or margin gains in the resale part of the business in particular. So, I think you'll see a lot of that growth coming through from that part of the business still.

And those are the internal factors, of course. I think we're also watching the OCR quite carefully because I think the link between the housing market and the OCR is proven now. And I think things like settlement times and so on are things that will improve as the market improves. And people are starting to talk about a slowing down of the rate of increase of the OCR. We would be obviously pleased with that and seeing a bit more liquidity in the property market is something that we would want to see. And I would view those with some optimism if those things would have come to path.

Can I just -- last one follow-up, you did allude to kind of assumptions on the new sales that your book, you've talked about kind of build rates, but then also margins that you're allowing for decline in new sales margin in the guidance range?

So, the margin that we're expecting on the new sales would be tracking back more or closer to our normal 20% to 25% in terms of what we've assumed for that, but always hopeful on that front, particularly with the strength of how things are going in Australia at the moment. In terms of volumes, we expect a bit of a lift on this year. So, around that 500, 600 mark, I think, would be where our new sales, we would be looking for that to be. Obviously, mix on that will be important too with the independent dollar margin being higher than the serviced apartment margin. So, I guess the focus for the team, though, is having that built new sales stock that you also has been called out earlier on the call. There's some big opportunity for us to sell that down in the next 12 months.

Your next question comes from Arie Dekker from Jarden.

Just first one, just on your investing cash flow guidance for FY '24, which is really helpful. Just want to understand, at the bottom end of that range, $800 million, does that assume any settlement on land over and above what you have in payables, which I think sits at just $75 million at the moment, so lower.

We can only model what we know about. So certainly, we've built in the plans that we already have slated, but we're not oblivious to new opportunities coming along, certainly.

To answer your question sort of, to be at the bottom end of the range, we wouldn't be spending a significant amount on additional land, there would still be some anticipated land sales in that number. But there's a lot of moving parts that will sort of drive through that CapEx spending and why we've given ourselves a bit of a range because the wider property market and when we commit to new stages and new villages, we'll have a big determination on that as well.

And for each new stage that we embark on, we're looking at the external factors of demand in that local area. I guess common sense is telling us not to build more units in a place where we've still got stock hangover from previously, in which case we divert that capital to elsewhere. So, there needs to be some flexibility in that. What we're trying to share with you is enough for you to get a feel of how we're thinking about the business, recognizing that market conditions, sales rates, how the market is unfolding will determine ultimately where we put the dollar in that location or in another location. But in ballpark, I think that guidance is about right.

And then, I mean I guess, what you've sort of indicated is that you're, I guess, pushing out the phasing with the 150 under this year and no change till '24 guidance for delivery. But can you just sort of confirm FY '25 delivery is sort of in line with what you indicated at the capital raise and from there your intention is still to build up to 1,300?

Yes. We haven't changed anything in the medium term to what we published at the time of the raise, correct.

Just the EBITDA disclosure and I think it's useful. I mean, I guess, just one point perhaps, it would be potentially worth sort of disclosing that on a settled resales basis as well because clearly, what we're seeing, particularly in this market, but I think we've sort of seen it over time the resales level of unsettled resales that receivable has been sort of growing. But my question on this one, I guess, is more in terms of that breakdown sort of highlights the earnings on the rest of the business. And when you take into account DMF, clearly, care and overheads sort of quite a drag. Is there some visibility you can give on just where care earnings sort of sit at the moment in FY '22 over FY '23 in terms of -- is it getting a bit better now that you're getting out of the worst of COVID. But yes, I'm specifically sort of asking, are we at breakeven on care or is care losing money on an EBITDA basis?

On an EBITDA basis, Arie, care has really breakeven. But there's been a little bit of COVID costs come out, but there is continued sort of CPI challenges that the whole sector is facing on that front. So look, that is a key focus of ours around looking at levers to pull within the care business as part of the care suite offering that we are looking to develop that sort of become more widely excepted in the market to try and improve that care earnings piece. But there's also a significant amount of work going on at the sector level around addressing that funding. So, there's been a -- as Richard touched on in the presentation, a few sort of good announcements around pay parity, but there's also pay equity sort of discussions happening at the moment, but also the wider funding and how we also get a return on capital that's being put into that sector as well. So, there's a journey to go on care. It's still very close to breakeven.

And just on the care suites and you've been sort of clear on your forward intentions. Has there been any sort of further work done on the opportunity to convert to care suites and what is, I guess, the 3,500-odd bed embedded care suite -- care beds in the existing portfolio in New Zealand?

It's a piece of, yes, it's something we are exploring. One of the, I guess, key things within our existing portfolio too is the serviced apartment offering that we have. So, we can already provide [ best home level ] care into our serviced apartments. So, what we want to make sure is that we're not going in and creating even sort of more competition for yourself within those existing villages, particularly when there is a large serviced apartment offering. One of the key sort of things that we have seen in Australia, though with that serviced apartment offering is the ability to get home care funding into that product as well. So, our residents can get some of the weekly fee funded, which means that they can add additional services into the serviced apartment. So, I'd just think that may come through in New Zealand as well in the future years, but converting existing care is something we will consider, but it's still very early stages.

I mean realistically, just adding to that, it is a significant but slower burn strategy that plays out through the execution of new villages. There is some opportunity in existing villages, but -- and we have, in fact, during the course of this year, actually knocked some units together to create larger, more compelling accommodation for people, but realistically to do it on any meaningful scale with the existing portfolio is difficult due to the configurations of existing buildings. So, that does play out over a period of time. I'm going exactly where Dave is going to say one of the interesting aspects to this result and if you look at, again, the appendices, you can see the shift of serviced apartments that have been selling in Australia. The trick to that has actually been that growth is not just a serviced apartment, it's a serviced apartment quite often with a care package bolted into it, which, of course, creates -- in practice, it's like a new product that we're able to bring to market. And to some extent, the implementation of that is a quicker realization of benefit than a longer-term project to redesign our villages for a care suites operation. So, they're both relevant. One has short-term impacts, one has longer impacts, but they're both playing to this point about an enhanced package for people in higher levels of acuity.

And then just sort of, I guess, it's related to the care and the value of the care on the balance sheet. I think there's some useful additional color on the revaluation there of the care assets, which again, is sort of EBITDA breakeven. Obviously, very substantial value in your books. Can you just comment a little bit on -- there's a reference here, I think, for the first time to the value you're taking into account a portion of the DMF and coming up, so the retirement village DMF and coming up with the valuation supporting the care assets. How material is that apportionment of your DMF through to the care asset valuation?

Yes, you're right. So, it is -- in terms of the uplift in this year, it's probably about half of the uplift related to that apportionment, which we capture every 2 years. So, what we're doing is taking some of the deferred management fee sort of forward cash flow valuation from the investment property valuation and apportioning that over. So, it is reducing the investment property valuation, but obviously underpinning the valuation for the care. It's something we have been doing for a long, long time, but have added an additional disclosure to make that clear in the financial statements. The rationale for that, obviously, is people coming in to villages are coming in, knowing that they're coming into a village that offers a residential aged care in the future as well. So, the offering of the aged care is a big driver for people coming to our villages.

I would add that the economics -- sorry, go on.

Just on the materiality of it. So, if you're realizing, say, on average 15%, 16% DMF in total, how much of that 15%, 16% is being apportion to the care asset valuation?

Probably about 1/4 of that.

I'd also just add to the care business is -- I mean, I guess, I'd use the phrase, quasi-regulated in the sense that in New Zealand, we have the ARC agreement, in Australia, obviously, there's the ANAC funding settings. But essentially, the amount of money that comes in is fixed and to some extent, the level of service provided is regulated. In Australia, for example, it's number of minutes per day. What I think is encouraging in the Australian market and I do think we should see them as different markets here in this question is the recent budget and other funding announcements over in Australia have had some encouraging signs built into them that there is funding here available. If you see our proposition as part of the ecosystem of health care, I believe that we offer actually a very cost-effective option for governments to be able to look after people in old age, particularly compared with the alternative of the hospital. And with that, therefore, there is a way forward, I guess, that is starting to be mapped out in Australia. To some extent, those same influences are also playing out through the New Zealand market. And I think there is a logical journey that will also play out in Australia -- in New Zealand as demand builds and as the economics, I guess, are evaluated by government about how cost-effective what we provide versus the DHB or former DHB type alternatives. So, in the medium to longer term, we're encouraged that there is a way through this. But in the short term, certainly, we're saying that we've got a breakeven business when it comes to care.

And then final question just in relation to dividend resumption in FY '24. And I can appreciate with forward renewals sort of occurring that you're going to wait for that. But could you just sort of give an indication, has there been a lot of work done on it and you'll be able to come out with something recently shortly after the Board refresh is done? Or is this something that we're going to be waiting until first half '24 on in terms of dividend?

I'm not really in a position to comment on behalf of the Board, unfortunately. But certainly, what we've put in this statement, I think, is an accurate reflection, that there's certainly work going on.

So, you can't sort of comment -- so I mean, you can't comment on like when guidance for approach and dividend will be given at this stage.

No.

Your next question comes from Aaron Ibbotson from Forsyth Barr.

Also appreciate the new metrics and the increased transparency around unit delivery. I think that's encouraging. I got 3, hopefully, slightly quicker questions. So first one, just on cost, you called out that cost growth would have been 12% and change versus 14.4% if it hadn't been for a few one-offs. So, I was just curious if you could let us know if that's related to sort of first half or second half? I can't recall anything from the first half being called out, so the $10 million or so I guess.

Yes. They were second half adjustments. So yes, occurred in the second half.

Second question, Richard or anyone else, but you mentioned main buildings, I think you said 6% in 2024, and that contributed to capital intensity. I appreciate early days, but is there any chance you can give us some sort of rough idea where you think that number is going to land '25? How many main buildings are you already aware of that's going to come up in '25?

Certainly, the number will come down as these ones deliver. And the context would be that the future villages we do, of course, have smaller proportional care centers anyway. And therefore, what is currently a perhaps 2- to 2.5-year build time frame for a main building of quite significant complexity, the burden that, that places on us has reduced significantly in future builds. The other factor is that care or village centers do affect demand. And what we find is if we haven't built the care center, it makes it much more difficult to sell apartments and individual units, independent living units. So, there is not only an obligation for us to finish those, there's a commercial logic to us doing so. But at the moment, as a result of several years of COVID delay stoppages and so on, on those main buildings, we happen to have a disproportionately large amount happening at the moment. So, during the course of the year, we'll complete some of those. In fact, Deborah Cheetham is actually about to complete very soon and we'll bring that down and the proportions will shift over time. I think what we've suggested in our guidance this time around in the outlook statement is the proportion of care beds to independent living will be broadly similar to this current year and the year ahead. But after that, we see that reducing.

Third, little tiny one. Just I think you called out that Martha had been sold or agreed sale. So, I just wanted to know, is this a significant amount of dollar value? And has it been included in your investing cash flow of $0.8 billion to $1 billion guidance, has the positive from Martha been included in that guidance? Can we get some idea of how...

That is a -- but it's not hugely significant. There's a couple of assets that we've got for sale that are held on the balance sheet as it's available. So, that gives you a rough idea for the scale of the numbers combined.

But it's been included in the $0.8 billion to $1 billion guidance, the risk?

Yes.

Final question, just any chance I can invite you to comment on the very recent trends. Have you anything to say about sort of May? Does it look similar to what it has done? Do you see any further deterioration or a small pickup or steady as she goes? Anything you want to say about May?

I mean there's certainly no large scale shocks in the market, I would probably say, but I wouldn't want to comment more than that.

I think in fact, a lot of people were looking for positive -- property market will be good.

That would indeed be good. That's all for me.

Your next question comes from Jason Familton from ACC.

Good result, well done. The -- just back to the first question, Nick asked, just to understand like the guidance for build rate and the impact from James Wattie. So, is James Wattie going to deliver any units in FY '24? Or is it more cautious around the build rate? Just trying to understand a little bit more in detail around what's happening between, I guess, under deliveries in '23, which you would have thought would turn up in '24.

I think the key with that, Jason, is that James Wattie will start to deliver through '24, assuming supply chain challenges and everything easier. But what it means is we're just probably I guess, a little bit more cautious about the next pieces that you start, so that you're not stacking everything on top of each other. So, the disruption just means we're not sort of doubling down and trying to do too much, just taking a bit of a measured approach to it all.

And don't underestimate that while obviously in the Hawke's Bay, the storm has been obviously the key input factor. But supply chain issues, which is what I loosely talk about the sort of tail end COVID effects, supply chain is still an issue. And certain supply of certain building materials goes in and out. Labor is complex. And we're going through a shortage at the moment of bricks, for example. And it just holds up the process and we don't get the normal sort of build sequencing that we would expect. So, things have slowed down, particularly across the upper half of the North Island.

So, can you just sort of, sort of following up a little bit on Arie's question, but I'm a little bit surprised of continued revaluations of aged care given trends around profitability? How important is the profitability that bids themselves and the valuation assumptions by the valuer?

So, they do look at sort of earnings as part of that, but they are also looking at transaction prices and market evidence and forming that view. So, it is one of the drivers, but it's not the sole driver as part of doing that.

And they're formally valued every 2 years, of course.

Correct. Yes.

And then sort of the other one, just Newtown, good to see that they come out finally. I'm guessing that's in the net numbers as well, but wouldn't be material anyway?

Yes, that's correct.

Your next question comes from Bianca Fledderus from UBS.

Sorry, [indiscernible] working. But first of all, just on your Australian development margins at 32%. So, that's obviously quite high. And I'm just wondering if that was what you were expecting for Australia because it's -- I don't think many analysts were expecting that. So, just wondering what drove that. Was that mainly price driven? And also, what can we expect there going forward, please?

Price has been a factor. The team on the ground over there has done a great job in terms of managing the build program, obviously, supported by the wider group design and construction teams to look at those opportunities. So, but as we're getting some scale over there too, we are starting to see some pricing opportunities. But the team is also looking at as we've built a name starting to lift our prices that we're achieving relative to the wider property market as well.

I'd say also, there's a mix effect going on there as well because the more recent units that have been coming on board are of a type that has enhanced that margin number. And so you're seeing an average, obviously, but within that, there are mix movements as well.

I do think over time, we'll actually track down a little bit. But yes, there's some good -- when you have moment first.

And then just on the Newtown side bid for sale, I believe that's a low density site. So, I'm just wondering how that fits in with your move to broad-acre, move back to broad-acre. Any sort of other sites that you'd like to sell your current land bank, assuming high-density sites. And ideally, how many more broad-acre sites would you aim to buy in FY '24 for this move to from sort of back to broad-acre strategy?

So, the Newtown site is quite a sort of boutique tight site. So, it would have been not a large-scale development for us, but the cash flow sort of profile on that would have been quite intense because you have to build most of the site before you could move anyone in. That was sort of one of the drivers for that change. So -- and then in terms of the sites we're looking to acquire like in a typical year, we might be looking 2, 3, 4, 5 sites, but we'll do that on merits of the sites as they come up. But we are always looking to replenish our land bank. But your question is right in that we are focusing that on lower density sites. It's not to say we won't do the high-density sites, but our focus is on sort of adding those to rebalance the land bank further.

And so are there any high density sites in your current land bank that you would consider selling or would like to sell?

We haven't announced any of that. What we're really doing is evaluating every site now before we commence any future stages and rerunning the financials on it and making sure that we prioritize according to what the results are going to be. So -- but certainly, the remaining sites in our portfolio are in all our portfolio. And until at some subsequent point, we decide they're not in which case we'll announce that in due course. But at the moment, the disposal of Mount Martha and Newtown was a very logical step for us given the way the numbers we're looking.

But we have developed some very good stage getting processes in the last few years as well to just go through those sites and at different points of the journey to challenge as this where we want to be putting our money.

And then just lastly, you mentioned the Chairman's appointment in the near term. Any sort of progress on the CFO appointment? Or is that too early still?

Nothing to announce, of course. But certainly, it's a process that's underway, yes. Stuck with me for a bit longer. Thank you. Thank you, Bianca, is that your final question? Okay. Thank you very much for your time and attention today. I'm afraid that's all we've got time for, but we look forward to staying in touch and of course, keeping you up to date with our progress. And many of you, of course, will see as we come around and meet with you as part of our roadshow. So, thank you, again.