Safran SA ($SAF)

Earnings Call Transcript · April 23, 2026

ENXTPA FR Industrials Aerospace and Defense Sales/Trading Statement Calls 55 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

Operator
#1

Welcome to the Safran First Quarter 2026 revenue. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to your host, Olivier Andries, Safran CFO, and Pascal Bantegnie, Group CFO. Mr. Andries, please go ahead.

Olivier Andriès

Executives
#2

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We had a very strong first quarter with revenue reaching EUR 8.6 billion, up 23% organically. We continue to benefit from a solid momentum in both Aerospace and Defense with little to no impact from the Middle East conflict so far. Once again, our main growth driver is aftermarket. We saw vigorous demand across the board, especially for commercial engines and nacelles. Sales of spare parts for civil aircraft engines were up 29%, mostly thanks to the CFM56 Services for CV part engines increased by 43%, with LEAP contracts leading the way. At the same time, building on our excellent industrial performance in the second half of 2025, we continued the LEAP ramp-up with more than 500 deliveries this quarter up 63% year-on-year and marking the third consecutive quarter with deliveries above this level. Overall, the strength of our Q1 performance reinforces our confidence in reaching the high end of our full year 2026 guidance. That said, we remain cautious for the coming months, given the uncertainty around the scale, duration and potential impact of the Middle East conflict, notably on air traffic. A few words on our portfolio management. In January, we completed the divestment of Safran Passenger innovation. And recently, we announced the acquisition of Syntony leader in resilient navigation technologies for complex and denied environment. Turning to Slide 4. We continue to raise our industrial capacity for the ramp-up in both civil and defense activities. We recently announced 2 new facilities to support Airbus and Boeing ramp-up, 1 in Morocco, dedicated to the A320 landing gear and another 1 in Belgium for compressor components, which will equip the LEAP, the GenX and the GE9X engines. In addition, we just announced a EUR 150 million investment in GenVBA for a new 30,000 tons forging press. This will support the LEAP ramp-up as well as our military program, further reinforcing our resilience in forged parts. In defense, we signed an MOU, we fetch group in the UAE. For the development, the production and the commercialization of advanced air-to-ground weapon system. This is yet another example of the momentum in our defense activities and our ability to forge meaningful partnership. On the commercial side, we are pleased to see our RS 2D helicopter turbine selected to power Gimbals new ground cap G5 Carter. We are also keeping a strong focus on innovation and future technology. The engineered electric motor was recently honored at the 2026 aviation week laureates, marking a significant achievement at the first electric motor to be certified for hybrid and electric aircraft. It was also selected to power the full electric Bristell B23 Energic aircraft. With that, I will now hand over to Pascal to walk you through the Q1 revenue in more detail.

Pascal Bantegnie

Executives
#3

Thank you, Olivier. Good morning, everyone. Let me give you a quick update on FX -- earlier in the quarter, we saw the euro to dollar rate jump up to almost 121, but it then settled back down into a more favorable range between 114 and 116 in March. -- before stabilizing around 117 this week, largely in the context of the Middle East prices. We use this environment to keep building out our hedging positions for 2029, and I'm pleased to say we are now 80% hedged for that year. In this context, we are confirming our 2026 hedge rate at $112 per year. As of March 2026, our hedge book stood at $59 billion, which continues to give us strong visibility and protection against currency movements. . Looking further at for '27 and '28. We are still targeting a hedge rate of 1.12. And for 2029, we are aiming for a range between 112 and 114 based on the market is today. Now moving on to Slide 7. In Q1 2026, our revenue reached EUR 8.6 billion, which is a 19% increase year-over-year or 23% organic. Organically, that's almost EUR 1.7 billion more than last year, driven by both our services and original equipment businesses. On the currency front, we did see a negative impact of 8.5% and mainly because the average euro-dollar rate was less favorable, EUR 117 in Q1 26 compared to EUR105 million a year ago. In concrete terms, that meant a hit of about EUR 600 million on our revenue. Lastly, FX added around 4%, mainly thanks to the acquisition of Collins actuation and flight control business last July, which contributed nearly EUR 400 million and this was partly offset by the divestment of Safran Passenger innovations for nearly EUR 100 million. Turning to Slide 8. Let me give you a quick overview of our revenue by activity. Starting with propulsion. Revenue reached EUR 4.6 billion, which is a 33% organic increase. The civil engine softer market delivered a particularly strong performance spare parts were up 29%, and the main driver here was again the CFM56, which benefited from a favorable comparison against Q1 2025. The strong reserves also builds on the momentum we saw in the second half of last year when -- where we experienced a significant increase in work scope. In addition, the LEAP third-party network kept growing. Also, its revenues are still modest compared to the CFM56. Looking now at services, we saw a 43% increase, mainly driven by the LEAP Reperflight contracts with volume, World Cup and also favorable comparison base since margin recognition for the LEAP-1A only started in the second quarter of last year. On the OE side, we delivered 520 LEAP engines this quarter, up 63% year-over-year. This substantial increase reflects both the ramp-up, marking quarters in a row with more than 500 deliveries and again, a favorable comparison base. Moving on to Equipment and Defense. Revenue grew by 13.5% organically year-over-year or 11.9% if we exclude the transfer of the Safran ventilation system from aircraft interiors. We continue to support the ramp-up at Airbus and Boeing with deliveries of critical equipment such as the nacelle for the Enel or electrical systems and wiring for the 737 MAX, landing gear for the A330neo and the 787. In defense, we benefited once again from strong global demand, especially for optronics inertial navigation system and guidance systems. Aftermarket Services also grew coreboard particularly nacelles for the A320 and A380 and also for electrical system and wiring on the A380. Turning to Aircraft Interiors. We saw a 9.2% organic growth or 14.8% before the transfer of Safran Ventilation System. Growth in original equipment was led by very strong cabin deliveries and favorable pricing in business classes despite lower volumes. Aftermarket Services also increased, mainly driven by cabin activities for airlines in North America, Asia and the Middle East. Turning to Slide 9. We are continuing to deliver on our EUR 5 billion share buyback program. In the first quarter of 2026, we repurchased 1.6 million shares, totaling EUR 500 million. These shares are set to be canceled by the end of the year, and I would like to highlight that a new tranche of EUR 375 million of the buyback will be launched in the coming days. On the debt side, we redeemed the EUR 700 million bond issued back in March 2021 as its reach maturity this March. This redemption has no impact on our net debt position and our long-term debt profile, as shown on the graph, is long-dated and now primarily made up of bonds and USPP. Finally, just as a reminder, Safran will propose to its shareholder a dividend of EUR 3.35 per share for the 2025 fiscal year. This represents a total payout of EUR 1.4 billion, scheduled to be paid on May '28. Olivier, back to you.

Olivier Andriès

Executives
#4

Thank you, Pascal. Our Q1 performance and the strong momentum we continue to see across both civil aeropace and defense, it gives us strong confidence in our ability to reach the high end of our full year 2026 target guidance. Nevertheless, we remain cautious as our situation in the Middle East remains fluid and its potential effects, notably on air traffic are still uncertain. In any case, the first half of the year should remain largely unaffected. Thank you, and we will now be happy to take your questions. .

Operator

Operator
#5

[Operator Instructions] We are now going to proceed with our first question. And the questions come from the line of Olivier Brochet from Rothschild.

Olivier Brochet

Analysts
#6

Yes. I wanted to discuss the potential difficulties that airlines might see later in the year. And if they decide to defer visits -- do you have signals that other might step in actually to take over the slots that would have been freed up? That would be the first question. The second 1 is on spare engines, if there is traffic slowdown, do you think that airlines will effectively reduce their spare engine purchase? And the last 1 is you discussed in the press release missile propulsion, can you maybe tell us how significant it is sort of growth that we should expect to the end of the decade and these sort of things, please?

Olivier Andriès

Executives
#7

Airlines. Interestingly, I spent 2 days last week in at what we call the Aircraft Interiors show -- and that's interesting because this is an opportunity to meet many, many airlines. And during those 2 days, I met about 20 of them coming from everywhere. Americas, Europe, Middle East, Asia, India, China. And what's interesting is that I got no indication at all that there is any potential acceleration in the pace of retirements of aircraft as of today, -- if you look at Q1, there has been 44 CFM56 powered aircraft being retired, which is less than 2%. It's about 1.5%. And in the last 3, 4 years, most of the airlines are mainly complaint about the shortage of capacity offer half capacity. So I mean there is no even nobody envisions to -- as we speak, to accelerate the pace of retailing. So I'm confident that the pace of retirement will remain low, lowest ever, by the way, lower than before COVID in 2026. And I don't expect that to pick up in 2027. That's one. Now when we look at show visit, in Q1, we've seen removals of the wing of engines in line with our expectations in Q1, meaning that in Q2, we will see induction into the shop in line with our expectation. And this will feed engine output considering the turnaround time in the shop, this will feed the engine output in Q3, in line with our expectations. So all in all, we are quite confident that the volume of shop visits this year will be in line with our expectation. And we have been positively surprised in Q1 by the high number offshore visit with a fairly or scope. In fact, higher than what we anticipated. And this is why, as we speak and as you've seen, we are indeed ahead of our trajectory in Q1. And so we still expect to be ahead of our trajectory in end of H1. And this is why this is fueling high confidence to meet the high end of our target.

Olivier Brochet

Analysts
#8

That's very clear.

Olivier Andriès

Executives
#9

Spare engines, on the country, the appetite for perentine is very, very significant. -- in fact. And we -- I mean, we would be able to produce even more engine than what we have planned for. in 2026, there would be an appetite for the airframers to take them, but there would be a strong appetite as well from the airline to take them. So no slowdown for spare engines. You had a question on missile propulsion. As I think I mentioned it, we have decided 18 months ago to invest EUR 100 million in our missile propulsion business to increase the capacity by. So we see today -- on our missile propulsion business, we see an increase. We forecast an increase of 20% in 2026 versus 2025. And we think -- I mean, we think this is what we see. -- because we have a backlog of orders. We think that our production is going to be multiply between now and 2030 by a factor of -- there is a big appetite for what we call munition and this indeed is feeding a strong backlog for missile and also propulsion but also seekers and guidance.

Olivier Brochet

Analysts
#10

Could you give us a sense of how significant that business is in the side for you?

Pascal Bantegnie

Executives
#11

Olivier, we won't provide such details, but the kind of growth rate we enjoy in '26 is clearly in the ...

Olivier Andriès

Executives
#12

But I can at least give you just an indication, not a detail, but we are talking about a few hundred millions. .

Operator

Operator
#13

We are now going to proceed with our next question and the questions come from the line of Benjamin Heelan from Bank of America. .

Benjamin Heelan

Analysts
#14

I hope you're both well. I wanted to come back initially on the situation in the Middle East and Olivier, your comments about being confident to reach the high end of the guide because there is clearly a scenario where this situation drags on and it does become quite difficult for a lot of airlines across the world. So you're confident on reaching the high end of the guidance, but can you help us understand from a conflict scenario? Like how long are you anticipating within that guide that this situation drags on for -- that will be the first question. The second question is you mentioned little to no impact so far. So in terms of both March and April, have you seen requests for small reductions in scope or days to some deliveries of spare parts. I'd just be interested over the kind of the last 6, 7 weeks, what you've actually kind of seen on the ground in terms of scope of shop visits and spare parts requests. And then on the LEAP, obviously, a very strong improvement in deliveries. Can you talk a little bit about what you're seeing from a supply chain perspective? Have you seen any incremental tightness given what's going on in the Middle East on the LEAP supply chain in particular? And are you still on track with the LEAP 1B Maverick Blade introduction in the first half?

Olivier Andriès

Executives
#15

Ben, a lot of questions. On the Middle East, frankly speaking, it's really early to comment or speculate on how long the Gulf crisis will last and how this will unfold. I mean I don't have a crystal board on that. Of course, it has lasted for now almost 1 month in half. Probably it will last more so a few months, I hope no more, but we'll see. We've not seen any indication yet of any slowdown. Very clear, we have not seen any indication of any slowdown of engine removals or engine induction. We have not seen any indication of reduction of our scope. And as I said, we've been very positively surprised. In fact, by the higher number in the global mix of flavisit in the higher number of show visit with a heavy work scope. So in terms of volume of visit, we are in line with the expectation. In terms of price, we could anticipate so we are in line. The positive surprise has come from, let's say, a heavier scope. In average than anticipated. So no indication of Fimiston and again in Q1. And again, we don't expect anything in Q2 as well. So we expect to have a strong H1. Supply chain with what we anticipate and what we've seen is, let's say, a significant price increase in some specific raw materials, which basically has a cost impact for us, indeed. And so we see that potentially a consequence of the conflict or whatever. But I can give you 2 or 3 examples. Coba, a typical example where the prices have helped quite significantly. So we I mean, we manage that, of course. And we had the buffer and the room to absorb that.

Benjamin Heelan

Analysts
#16

Cost increase on specific raw materials. .

Pascal Bantegnie

Executives
#17

Ben, if I may add. I know that you see it in Dubai. So I hope all is well for you on your family. Interestingly, a year ago, it was all about the tariff. If I may discuss a tailwind that we will have in 2026 that may absorb any headwinds that could come up from the Middle East conflict is about tariffs. For example, in far, I mentioned that the impact or the expected impact of tariff in 2026 should be in the range of EUR 400 million. Given the Supreme Court decision a month ago, now our expectation is much less than that, below EUR 50 million, okay? So that's a tailwind and in addition to that, since 2 days now, CBP has opened a platform to retain the paid tariff for 2025, and we are claiming up to $100 million. So this is typically a turn wind that we could enjoy in 2026 to offset any impact, if any, during the second half of the year or in 2027.

Operator

Operator
#18

We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Christophe Menard from Deutsche Bank.

Christophe Menard

Analysts
#19

Yes. I had 2 questions, 1 on aftermarket on the other 1 on defense. On aftermarket, you mentioned CFM56scope -- what about G90, -- is it also strong? Or where do you see work scope evolving in -- well, in the rest of the year? And on defense, can you comment on the LPM boost that we saw any impact on your midterm guidance?

Olivier Andriès

Executives
#20

Look Christophe. Yes, on what we call IFRS engine, especially GE90. We've seen a significant growth and this has contributed as well to our spare parts revenue growth in Q1 we've seen quite also an increase of work as well on the GE90. So it has contributed. It has contributed to the growth. Which, again, is a good news because, as you know, when we look at the curve share of the global air traffic. It accounts for about 5% of narrow body, but 20% of the widebody. So it's been a good news. And we don't see -- we see that continuing in Q2. On defense, yes, the LPM as you call it, in France, late program as miler, basically is going to be, let's say, augmented with a decision to increase the spending between now and 2030 by EUR 36 billion on top of the already decided EUR 400 billion spending in this period. And announcement has been made that a part of it would be dedicated to what is called munition. So munition means besides missiles and other ingredients for missile. So as I said, guidance seekers, missout. So yes, it's a boost, indeed. And on top of that, just as a reminder, about 80% of our revenues in defense are related to export, so not France. And we see a big boost here as well, especially in Europe.

Christophe Menard

Analysts
#21

Okay. So the LPM boost is probably not enough for you to reconsider your written guidance just on the back of that EUR 36 billion boost. .

Olivier Andriès

Executives
#22

It's a good tailwind and a good contributor, which -- but it reinforces our confidence, I would say, to meet the high end of our guidance. .

Operator

Operator
#23

We are now going to proceed with our next question and the questions come from the line of Robert Stallard from Vertical Research.

Robert Stallard

Analysts
#24

Sorry. I muted myself. A couple of questions from me. First of all, earlier this week, GE gave a new basis on airline activity. for its forecast and its 2026 guidance. I was wondering if you've done anything similar in your guidance? And then secondly, on interiors, both highlighting continued seat certification issues on the 787 yesterday. I was wondering if that had any impact on you in the first quarter. .

Olivier Andriès

Executives
#25

Rob, airline activity we have not gone for detail, let's say, exercise of forecasting airline activities. We -- of course, we are studying various scenarios depending on how long the crisis will last. Again, it's very early to -- I don't want to speculate. So it's too early to comment on that. Again, we believe that the widebody is the fact -- the widebody is more impacted than the narrow body, prices presses in terms of overall number of cycles for the full year 2026. So impact could be, let's say, higher on widebodies than on narrow bodies. . About seats certification, yes. This is an industry-wide, let's say, issue as we have already commented, the certification, the finance authorities have significantly tightened their interpretation of certification rules. And therefore, I mean, we are in a situation sometimes where we have delivered the seats to the airframe and the aircraft is ready to be delivered, but we still wait for the reline of certification. So -- it happens. And again, it is 1 of the issue that as an industry, and it's really something that we work on with the premise. We need to find a way to unlock and to ease because it does have an impact on that deliveries. Now interestingly, and again, I refer to my 2 days in [ Abu ] last week, have been, again, surprised by the level of the demand for new premium seats, new business class seats and first-class seats, which largely exceeds the supply. I mean, we are in a situation where seat suppliers are quite often in a position to now bid to request for Propel just simply because the demand is largely exceeding the supply. We -- the reason for that is that many airlines have launched a big retrofit program, and they are investing tens of millions for retrofitting their fleet of the A380s, 37, 787, A350s, and this comes on top of, let's say, the line fit ramp-up, especially on A350, 787 and 37. So we are in an interesting situation where we still need to unlock those certification issues and -- but the demand is incredibly strong.

Operator

Operator
#26

We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Ian Douglas-Pennant from UBS.

Ian Douglas-Pennant

Analysts
#27

I have a few, please. So the first, just on -- going back to the guidance this year. So Q1 has been, as you said, significantly ahead of your expectations. You sound extremely clear that we're not going to see an impact from the Middle East, at least this year by the sounds of things. And even if we look back at past cycles, there's been a lag of 12 to 18 months between airline financials and your financials. So could you just help me understand why it is that you haven't increased your guidance on any metric this quarter, please? Secondly, on LEAP, just looking at the production rates that we've seen in Q1. Am I correct in thinking that you're tracking ahead of your production targets for the year? Or am I overreading into 1 quarter's numbers? And then just finally on work scopes. Can you just help us understand in absolute terms how to think about where work scopes are today? I mean this has been a driver of kind of upgrades to your expectations, I think, over at least the last 18 months, if not longer. But can you help us understand in absolute in terms of how high they are -- and what scope, therefore, this has to increase further from here or decrease? What -- if these normalize, how should we think about that? I'm just struggling to size the absolute work scope effects.

Pascal Bantegnie

Executives
#28

Ian, this is Pascal. Okay. On your first question, as we only disclose the revenue for the first quarter, as we do as well for the third quarter, you do not have the market has no reference for the EBIT at the end of March or the cash at the end of March. So this is why and given the uncertainty we have. This is why we decided just to reaffirm the current guidance and reaffirm as well the assumptions behind this guidance in terms of LEAP deliveries, spare parts revenue growth, mid-teens and services revenue growth of about 20%. . As we clearly said, Q1 is well ahead these numbers. We are -- we strongly believe that at the end of June, we will be largely ahead of this number. So -- there is clearly an upside opportunity when we publish our half year results in July, that we will revise upwards at the underlying assumptions behind the guidance, and then we'll see how it does translate in terms of numbers in EBIT or in cash. So it's not the right timing, and we usually never upgrade our guidance or revised our guide when we only publish a revenue number. .

Olivier Andriès

Executives
#29

Ian, on LEAP production I can say, we have guided cautiously at 15%. And we are in line with our production plan. We are in line, with our guidance we will be -- we would be above 2,000 engines being produced this year. So this quarter, we are above 500. So we are in line. So it may well be that we do a little bit better. As again, we have guided cautiously at 15%. .

Ian Douglas-Pennant

Analysts
#30

On the work scope.

Olivier Andriès

Executives
#31

Work scope, yes. We, in fact, there is quite a high number of or visit with a full scope of work addressing not only the core engine, as we say, the core engine being the hot section plus the HP Compressor, but also the fun and the low-pressure turbine. So basically, what we see is that we have a unprecedented number -- I mean, proportion of short visit with a full scope of work. And so we should not expect the work scope to continue to increase. We should expect at least this year let's say, we've reached this peak in terms of work scope, and we expect that to continue along the year.

Pascal Bantegnie

Executives
#32

If I put that in different words, if I split between shale visit growth, pricing and work scope, when you look to the plus 29% revenue growth in Q1, there was no -- at least for the 56, there was no shop visit growth Q1 over Q1 last year. Pricing effects, which we had in August last year was mid- to high single digit meaning that the rest of the reference is coming from the work scope. So it gives you an order of magnitude how huge is the impact coming from the work scope. .

Ian Douglas-Pennant

Analysts
#33

Could I just ask a follow-up there, and I hope it's quick. I mean, in the scenario that fuel prices stay structurally elevated, and so airlines are forced to reevaluate the Mason plans going forward. Is there any reason why that work scope cannot decline by a similar magnitude?

Olivier Andriès

Executives
#34

Again, as a matter of fact, we don't have any indication of that following our discussion with many airlines as of today. We don't see any indication of that. Again, I mean I don't have a [indiscernible]. So I don't know what's going to happen in 2027 or so. But the fact is that airlines have learned from the past years that it's wise for them to make sure they have for capacity. And this is why, again, we don't see any, let's say, airline envisioning accelerating pace of retirements or, let's say, today, trending towards telling us that they are going to redo the work scope. We don't see that today. .

Pascal Bantegnie

Executives
#35

And if we look at the CFM is utilization pre and post the conflict, it has remained stable so far. So we have no indication at all that there will be a reduction in scope or number of visits for the months to come. .

Operator

Operator
#36

We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the question comes from the line of Chloe Lemarie from Jefferies. .

Chloe Lemarie

Analysts
#37

The detailed view on sort volume and work scope. If I could follow up actually on pricing and how this works from your end. So obviously, I guess, the list pricing increase you've probably already set them in kind of known to airlines. But in terms of the discounts that you grant them, when does this discussion happen? Have you already done that throughout the end of the year. Does that happen at the time of the shop visits. If you could help us understand the how things could move versus your initial view on this? And my second question is on services. So we're obviously seeing a very, very strong quarter again. I'm assuming LEAP contract as the main driver. How should we think about the margin evolution there, given that you're now recording profitability on the 1B as well, please?

Pascal Bantegnie

Executives
#38

On pricing. We have not yet finalized and completed the discussion with GE for what we will do on the first of August. As you know, on our side, the intent is always to have a couple of points above inflation. So inflation may be the uncertain or the unknown parameter so far. So we will have to think twice about what we do in the next first of August for the catalog list price for CFM56 spare parts and for the LEAP as well. Do we grant discounts today to airlines? First, we have not received any demand for that. So the discounts that airlines are benefiting from the 1 that are very usual, depending on the size of their fleet, the importance they have for CFM. So there is nothing new at least related to the Middle East conflict. On services, we did enjoy a very strong 43% year-over-year growth, which is well above our underlying assumption of 20% for the full year. So it bodes well for the rest of the year. In terms of margin, we started to recognize LEAP 1A, the PFH margin last year. And our partner confirms that they will introduce the Maverick HPT blade on the LEAP-1B during the summer months, June, July. So it will trigger the recognition of margin on those contracts. So you will expect, let's say, in H2 that Safran will recognize not only the 2026 LEAP 1B RPFH margin, but the past margin, which was unrecognized so far. So there will be as we had last year, one-off onetime effect lower than what we had on the LEAP 1A, but still a onetime effect coming from this new margin recognition on the LEAP RPFH contracts.

Chloe Lemarie

Analysts
#39

And that's on H2 that you're recognized versus H1 for the 1A last year, right? .

Pascal Bantegnie

Executives
#40

Last year, it has started in Q2 -- yes, in Q2, we started to recognize margins in Q2.

Olivier Andriès

Executives
#41

Will not happen in H1.

Operator

Operator
#42

We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the question comes from the line of Ken Herbert from RBC Capital Markets. .

Kenneth Herbert

Analysts
#43

Yes. Olivier and Pascal. Two questions. First, investors are very focused today on the uncertainty into 2027. I can appreciate services this year, you've got relatively good visibility and conversations with airlines remain very constructive. But is there anything you can provide around visibility into 2027, either in terms of backlog on the services side. Any other indicators there because I think the primary risk today that's getting reflected or priced into the stock isn't so much the 2026, but it's the potential downside or deceleration of growth in '27. So I know it's a ways out, but any comments on that would be appreciated. And then second, anything you can refine in terms of your assumptions on CFM56 retirements this year, you called out 1.5% of the fleet in the first quarter. Just remind us again the assumptions into the remainder of '26 and '27 on retirements on that engine?

Olivier Andriès

Executives
#44

Alone, again, I'm not able to comment or speculate on how this crisis in the Gulf will unfold and therefore, on 2027, what I can say, what I can say is with as explained, we've been positively surprised on what we've seen, and that started in H2 2025, indeed, and it continued in Q1 2026, and it will continue in Q2 2026. We've been positively surprised by the heavy work scope, which basically is a driver for us being significantly ahead of our planned trajectory. So we are ahead of plan. . And again, this basically fuel our confidence to meet this year, the high end of our target but basically, this trajectory is the 1 that we had used for even our 2028 expectation. And so we were ahead of plan. We are ahead of plan. And so we have some room to absorb, let's say some potential headwinds. And we have demonstrated in the past our ability to navigate through headwinds, that's what I can say. On CFM56 retirements, we firmly believe that we will be below 2% this year and that we don't see today that the number of retirements should be significantly different than what we saw in 2025. In 2025, it was 143 aircraft and it was 1.5% of the fleet, Q1 44. So we believe we should be around 1.5% to 2%. .

Pascal Bantegnie

Executives
#45

And keep in mind that the narrow-body fleet is owned 50% by lessers, they can redeploy aircraft from 1 area to another if needed. So we don't see the retirement to pick up even in '27. .

Olivier Andriès

Executives
#46

Yes. I should have mentioned. I met last week also with the big lesser companies and none of them today is seeing any impact on the dynamic of the leasing aircraft business. None of them. That's what I can say, factually. The last question? .

Operator

Operator
#47

We are now going to proceed with 1 last question. And the questions come from the line of Ross Law from Morgan Stanley. .

Ross Law

Analysts
#48

So just 1 final 1 on work scope. And my question is really just around how much flexibility airlines actually have here. So if we obviously baseline the current activity, let's say, at 100, how far down, I guess, could this be doable? And how much lead time do you actually need to provide you -- so if I've got a shop visit in the future, at what point do I need to give you some sort of anticipation or request for that scope. And just lastly, would you agree that this is the 1 variable most at risk going forward? Over, let's say, volumes or prices?

Olivier Andriès

Executives
#49

Flexibility on the word scope. The key point is basically what the airlines have to indicate to us when the engine is removed from the wind what they have to indicate to us is basically do they want to focus on just the core engine? Or do they want to extend the work scope also to the fun and to the LP turbine. So this comes basically typically when the engine is removed from the room. This is why we have some visibility, let's say, 2 or 3 months ahead of induction, I would say. The turnaround time today on CFM56, and this is related to some attention on parts and also on the global MRO capacity, which basically is in line with our anticipation in terms of volume of show visit, but this is also a constraint. We have a turnaround time around 100 days now on CFM56 typically. And so we -- this is why we have some visibility in what's going to happen in Q2 and Q3. No surprise on price, there should not be any surprise. We don't expect any surprise on the volume of shop visit and workup. Again, we have some participation. Does it answer your question? .

Ross Law

Analysts
#50

Yes. Appreciate it. .

Pascal Bantegnie

Executives
#51

If I may, because I understand that you're concerned, all of you is more '27 and beyond. -- we have updated our 2028 ambition for it was the last firm. As you know, we always guide cautiously. It was built with the appropriate buffer to overcome some risk. We have not factored in some opportunities as well. We do enjoy strong visibility. And frankly, we strongly believe in the durability of the earnings growth profile of the company. Now we have no crystal ball for the middle is complex and will we discussed that at the end of July when we can provide numbers for the end of in. But so far, so good. We are running a bit of plan. Thank you all for your questions. .

Operator

Operator
#52

That concludes the question-and-answer session. So I hand back to you for closing remarks. We have no further questions. Now please go ahead for the closing remarks. Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.

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