Sagar Cements Limited (502090) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

January 29, 2020

BSE Limited IN Materials Construction Materials earnings 72 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

operator
#1

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to Sagar Cements' Q3 and 9M FY '20 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Gavin Desa of CDR India. Thank you. And over to you, sir.

Gavin Desa;CDR India;Analyst

attendee
#2

Thank you. Good day, everyone, and a warm welcome to Sagar Cements' Q3 FY '20 Analyst and Investor Conference Call. We have with us today Mr. Sreekanth Reddy, the Joint Managing Director; Mr. K. Prasad, the Chief Financial Officer; Mr. P.S. Prasad, President, Marketing; Mr. Rajesh Singh, Vice President, Marketing; and Mr. R. Soundararajan, Company Secretary. We will begin this call with opening remarks from the management, following which we will have the floor open for an interactive Q&A session. Before we begin, I would like to point out that some statements made in today's discussions may be forward looking in nature, and a note to that effect was stated in the con call invite sent to you earlier. We trust you've had a chance to go through the result communications and documents. I would now like to hand over to Mr. Reddy for his opening remarks. Over to you, Sreekanth.

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#3

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Sagar Cements' earnings conference call for the quarter and 9 months ended December 31, 2019. I will begin the call by briefly discussing key demand and pricing scenario across our markets, post which I will move on to Sagar-specific developments. Starting with the demand. While slow paced, cancel of infrastructure activities impacted the demand in South. State elections in Maharashtra weighed on the demand in the West. Prices too continued to be weak, in line with the demand across both Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. Prices in the East remained soft on the back of higher competitive intensity and weak demand. The pricing environment has improved marginally at the end of the quarter, with better price realizations witnessed across most markets, after being under pressure for the major part of the year following a slowdown in the government projects, the prolonged monsoon and the liquidity crunch, where we expect the demand as well to pick up in the coming months. Moving on to Sagar-specific developments. While the challenging environment during the current quarter did negate our overall good start to the year, we still managed to deliver a healthy growth during the first 9 months of the fiscal. On a year-on-year basis, revenue and EBITDA grew by 2% and 59%, respectively, during the associate period. Further, despite the muted top line growth for the quarter, we have been able to maintain overall operational profitability, partly owing to lower input costs and partly owing to our recent strategic cost rationalization initiatives, where we expect cost efficiencies to further improve on back of optimization of the CPP and also of logistics, enabling -- improved the alignment with the market. Lastly, the completion of the ongoing projects in the company subsidiaries Satguru Cement and Jajpur should help us further improve our efficiency. Moving on to our financial performance for the quarter. On a consolidated basis, revenue from the operations for the quarter stood at INR 262 crore, as against INR 319 crore generated during the corresponding quarter last year. EBITDA for the quarter stood at INR 20 crore against INR 31 crore reported during Q3 FY '19, owing to lower sales realization. Average fuel cost stood at INR 797 per tonne, as against INR 920 per tonne reported during Q3 FY '19. Optimization of thermal efficiency has resulted in lower per-tonne cost of fuel. Freight cost for the quarter on a consolidated basis moderated at INR 714 per tonne, as against INR 733 per tonne during Q3 FY '19, owing to better optimization of the lead distance. Loss for the quarter stood at INR 9 crores, as against loss of INR 3 crores reported during the Q3 FY '19. From an operational point of view, Mattampally plant operated at 44% utilization level, while Gudipadu and Bayyavaram plants operated at 66% and 50%, respectively, during the quarter. As far as the key balance sheet items are concerned. The gross debt of -- as of 31st of December 2019 on a stand-alone basis stood at INR 281 crores, out of which INR 150 crore as a long-term debt and the remaining constitutes the working capital, while on a consolidated basis debt stood at INR 489 crores, out of which INR 324 crores is long-term debt. The net worth of the company on a consolidated basis as of 31st December 2019 stood at INR 1,002 crores. Debt-equity ratio stands at 0.321. Cash and bank balances were at INR 15 crores as of 31st December. That concludes my opening remarks. We would now be glad to take any questions that you may have. Thank you.

Operator

operator
#4

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Sumangal Nevatia from Kotak Securities.

Sumangal Nevatia

analyst
#5

Yes. The first question is with respect to some specific color on demand trends which you shared. I wanted to understand. I mean, is there any green shoots visible in Andhra or Telengana or it continues to be a drag on the overall South India demand? More specifically, how you see next coming quarter shaping up. And with respect to Maharashtra, I mean, do we expect it to continue to grow at, say, mid-single digit, what has been the case in the last few quarters? Or any growing concern with the change in government there?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#6

Yes. See, I have to talk about the demand in AP and Telangana. If I have to compare with the last year, the demand so far degrew by almost close to 17%, but there has been an improvement, if I have to see on a month-on-month, starting from September. September was the lowest that we have seen, which actually was 50% of what it was during the last previous September. From September, which was close to around 1.4 million, which came down from close to 2.6 million the earlier year, from 1.6 million, it gradually moved all the way up to December to 2.5 million. Having said that -- but the earlier year, the demand was reasonably close to around 3 million for each of the months previously. So there has been an improvement month-on-month, but on a year-on-year basis the overall market actually degrew by 17%. But if we have to compare with a year earlier to the previous year, I think more or less the demand is slightly better, but if I have to compare with the previous year, it has actually grown -- degrown by 17%. Coming to Maharashtra. Yes, the elections did take -- did impact the demand on a year-on-year kind of a basis, but so far year-to-date, yes, the growth, what we have noticed in Maharashtra, is close to 5%, yes. We believe that the election part is behind, and probably we should achieve a -- close to 5% kind of a demand is what we believe in Maharashtra. Now going to the South. The other places like Karnataka, more or less, is flat. Tamil Nadu has grown at close to 3%. Kerala is minus by almost, close to 5% to 7%. So the overall south number is close to minus 7%. I think the AP and Telangana demand actually dragged up the overall South demand because the other 3 states, more or less, have remained [ positive ] or above the flattish kind of a trend. But I think Andhra and Telengana demand did drag the overall South demand. The current -- our assessment is that it is close to minus 7%, 7.5%. Now would the same trend continue? At the start of the year, we had indicated that the market to remain -- the overall South market to be positive. We believe that -- given the demand scenario in Andhra and Telangana, I think overall South probably could be flat to close to minus 5%. This is primarily because of the Andhra and Telangana demand, sir.

Sumangal Nevatia

analyst
#7

Understood. So sir, I mean, so this year, we -- let's say around 25 million tonnes in Andhra and Telangana. Or can we -- is it safe to assume that this will be the bottom? And on this base, we should expect some mid-single-digit growth from this region next year?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#8

That was the assumption that we have set, but I would still be cautious. I think we would like to wait until middle of February to see if the governments -- both the governments would start paying out the contractors, then I -- we don't see it as a challenge for us to start growing at least to a reasonable single-digit kind of a number. But the key factor there is that, usually the growth for Q1, you see that in the Q4, that has been the historical kind of an issue. Unless we see a reasonably sharp U-turn during the current quarter, talking of good growth for the next quarter would still be a challenging kind of a take. So I would still wait for somewhere around middle of February. The state governments have been promising the payouts which has been long overdue. Once that happens -- we don't see it as a challenge, but first, that has to happen. So I'll keep my fingers crossed, until such time, I will go on a very cautious tone, as far as AP and Telangana are concerned.

Sumangal Nevatia

analyst
#9

Understood. Sir, second question, with respect to cost. I mean we have seen almost INR 2,000 cost reduction on pet coke getting factored in our 3Q numbers from, say, last year. So is there any further benefit on spot basis which you can see which will flow in the coming quarters?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#10

See, as narrated earlier, sir, we generally don't take a spot call because ours is a weighted average kind of a thing. So they will -- started trickling in. We do not expect any major kind of a cost saving, but we are good all the way up to middle of May. So until middle of May, I think we are reasonably stocked up with a reasonably good pricing, pet coke with us. And we have also started seeing a few dollar price increases on the pet coke, so I would be cautious to take a further reduction on pet coke. I think only during the month of December we started seeing the low-cost pet coke started kicking in our accounts. So I think this trend should continue all the way up to middle of Q1, sir.

Operator

operator
#11

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Indrajit Agarwal from Goldman Sachs.

Indrajit Agarwal

analyst
#12

Two questions. One, you touched upon the pricing trends. While we -- when we look at your realization, it has fallen 8% sequentially. That is on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Do you think this broadly reflects the trend in the region as well, or are you slightly worse off than the region as a whole? And as a follow-up to that, when you mentioned the prices have increased since the end of December, how do you see the spot prices versus the quarter average?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#13

Yes. See, I would not like to comment on the overall kind of all the regional players having a similar impact, sir, because our product mix in terms of the geography mix is slightly away from most of the regional players because we do service Maharashtra. We also service Odisha. And you look at the position of our assets are slightly away from most of the other regional players, so I would not like to -- are we worse off? Are we better off? I think I would wait for the -- all the results to come. So I would not like to paint the same color across all the regional players but Andhra and Telangana, I think the price impact has been fairly high. So whoever is primarily focused on Andhra should have a similar kind of an impact is what we believe. Now coming to the pricing, sir. Starting from October, that is the exit of Q2 to the entry of Q1, yes, October started typically anywhere between 215 to 240 kind of a price bucket to Hyderabad where it slipped to [ INR 200 ] in December, which in our view on a relative scale is probably [ indicative of ] low pricing in December if we had to normalize to the inflationary kind of an impact. January -- we have seen an increase of close to around INR 10 to INR 15 increase across the months, but bulk of the increase has happened only during the middle to the end of January, sir. That is a trend, but if I have to talk about Chennai and Bangalore, the increase is not as much because it did not slide as much. So there is a -- on an average for our market footprint areas, we are counting a INR 10 per bag increase on an average from previous quarter to the whole of January. But bulk of this impact, we felt only during the second half of January.

Indrajit Agarwal

analyst
#14

Sure. This is helpful, sir. And specifically for Sagar, if you look at the other expenses line item. So from here, what are the avenues we have to reduce this cost, the other costs line item? I understand power and fuel, freight is more external factors driven, but any -- what are the controllable cost factors we have here?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#15

The other -- in others, it also involves the marketing-related costs, sir. So we -- it's a variable cost. I don't think that's something which we have control on. It is more to do with the discount structures and everything added up. On a cost side on a variable side, I think scope always exists, but I don't think there is a huge scope on that particular account.

Operator

operator
#16

Next question is from the line of Manish Valecha from Anand Rathi.

Manish Valecha

analyst
#17

Sir, I just wanted to understand the status of the CapEx both at Satguru and Jajpur now. So I believe we have already plants. Are we on schedule for March '21, sir?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#18

Yes. The -- both the subsidiaries, the order placement is complete. The civil works, we are more or less completed with [ 20% ] at Satguru. Jajpur, I would count only 5% to 10%, but Jajpur is relatively a small infrastructure project because it's just a grinding station. Right now, our assessment is that Jajpur would be on schedule by March '21 for commissioning. Satguru, right now, we are running a couple of months behind schedule, so we would be reasonably confident of achieving the commissioning by June of '21 as we speak.

Manish Valecha

analyst
#19

In June '21, okay. Fair enough, sir. And so we'll be having at least 1.5 [ Vicat ], 1.5 [ Jagpur ] and 1 million tonne of [indiscernible], which will be non-AP servicing market, apart from [ Bayyavaram ], right? So that reduces our [ AP share ] to how much? Post monthly commissioning [indiscernible].

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#20

I would [ keep safe at ] 6 months to 9 months for the ramp-up at both locations at Jajpur as well as Satguru, yes. These are exactly outside South. So it's not just AP and South issue. It is -- I think AP will come down from close to 50%, 52% right now on an average. I think it should push us down to less than 40% to 45%...

Manish Valecha

analyst
#21

In terms of volumes?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#22

Complete ramp-up -- when we complete ramp-ups -- ramp-up happens, I think we would -- AP and Telangana will be less than 40% of our overall kind of a market mix.

Manish Valecha

analyst
#23

Fair enough, sir. And sir, the next question was on peak debt. We will be hitting peak debt next year, right? What will that level be?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#24

I think we will be hitting the peak debt probably not the next year but the year after. We are assuming the net debt to be close to around INR 800 crores, on the higher side.

Manish Valecha

analyst
#25

Okay. This will include CapEx from both these plants?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#26

Yes, this includes the CapEx, and this also includes the working capital.

Manish Valecha

analyst
#27

Sure, okay, sir. Sir, one last question, on fuel consumption, right? On -- with this [indiscernible] on that?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#28

Yes. Sorry, Mr. Manish. Can you repeat the question? Sorry. We missed that. I think the voice was very feeble. Can you repeat the last question, please?

Manish Valecha

analyst
#29

On waste heat recovery, are we running it at full capacity? So savings from there are completely invested. Or is there some more scope?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#30

Yes, I think, as commissioned, it was at 6.5. Subsequently, we ramped it up to 8.4, yes. Right now, we are running close to 8.6, so we believe that technically we have reached the roof, except for the running hours. We don't expect any other saving in any other form from the waste heat recovery. Yes, the other potential saving that we have yet to realize is the CPP. CPP is being ramped up. The only problem is the capacity utilization. I think we went through a rough patch over last 2 quarters. So we could not get -- we could not run the CPP at its full potential. I think, going forward, that should help us with additional savings as and when the CPP starts running at a much higher capacity utilization.

Operator

operator
#31

The next question is from the line of Andrey Purushottam from Cogito Advisors.

Andrey Purushottam;Cogito Advisors;Analyst

analyst
#32

Actually, most of my questions have been answered. I just wanted to -- you to elaborate on the trends that you see going forward behind an expected price realization improvement. What are the factors that might cause that? Just elaborate on the previous answer.

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#33

I think we have seen the current low pricing, sir. I think, at this point of time, most of the industry is below water. When we are talking of below water, I think some other players did lose -- did not get even EBITDA during current pricing. So that should push the prices up. And from a demand perspective, sir, I think we've had an extremely good monsoon. Coupled with that, the historical trends always point out, the first 6 to 9 months, post election, yes, the demand to take a backseat slightly because most of the governments would -- even if -- the government which comes back, usually tries to take the time to recuperate and come back into the infrastructure buildup mode. That also should help us try to look at some demand recovery. And at the same time, if you look at the market, sir, the bulk of the government spend was missing, other nongovernmental spend has been growing. Is it healthy? I think it is reasonably healthy, with almost a 15% to 20% drop in overall kind of a demand. Without any government spend, my belief is that nongovernmental spend probably would have grown. That is the only reason why the demand did not collapse completely. Those trends typically point out to 2 things. One, most of the demand is behind us. And potentially the price war should take a better shape. Because probably the industry players panicked but the -- it did not behave in line with their expectation. So, the demand from 50% or average capacity utilization is only close to 40% but probably people panicked because they were expecting the demand to go up from 50% to probably 60%, 65%. It stopped going up. When it started coming down, I think people panicked in the marketplace.

Andrey Purushottam;Cogito Advisors;Analyst

analyst
#34

Right, right, right. Okay. And that's true for North as well, sir?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#35

The North is too far [indiscernible]. That may not be true because North probably is a better position. I think the demand trends there, they are still growing. I mean I don't think there was a negative growth in any of the regions, except for South. So the trends probably could be different, but I think, that market for us, we don't track as much as we generally do in the [indiscernible].

Operator

operator
#36

The next question is from the line of Girija Ray from Dolat Capital.

Girija Shankar Ray;Dolat Capital;Analyst

analyst
#37

Yes. So just wanted to know. The raw material cost has been increased. I just wanted to know, like, is there any impact? Is this because volume has grown? Or any slight price increased, or...

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#38

Well, it is more than the price, sir. If you have noticed, the blended material percentage as the overall kind of a product mix has gone up, so the relevant correction in raw material has happened. We have not seen any major price changes in any of the products over last couple of quarters, sir. So the rise in the raw material is primarily on the account of change in the product mix, sir, other increase to blended material has passed through. So that has impacted 2 things. One, the -- overall our actual costs it helped us slightly reduce. I would not call it matching impact in the raw material, but relevant correction in raw material price has improved. It's mostly to do with the slag -- increased slag usage as well as the fly ash usage...

Girija Shankar Ray;Dolat Capital;Analyst

analyst
#39

Slag price. What is the price right now, slag and fly ash?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#40

We would be happy to share that, sir, if you could -- because again it's we have 3 locations. And for each location, the fly ash and as well as slag price landings are different. So we will be more than happy to share that, yes. If you could send an e-mail, we would be extremely happy to share that.

Girija Shankar Ray;Dolat Capital;Analyst

analyst
#41

But comparatively, slag and fly ash price has been increased, right, you are saying...

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#42

No, sir. Slag and fly ash landed costs have not changed. The -- only the usage has gone up. The percentage of material that we have consumed has gone up. Price has not changed at all in last 2 quarters.

Operator

operator
#43

The next question is from the line of Sanjay Nandi from Ratnabali Capital.

Sanjay Nandi;Ratnabali Capital;Analyst

analyst
#44

Sir, just wanted to know a few things. Like you just mentioned in the first answer a few -- just on a call, like, the demand over in Andhra and Telangana region which was roughly 2.6 in the month of September '18. Right, sir?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#45

Yes, yes, yes. One second, sir -- meaning September 2018. You are talking of September 2018.

Sanjay Nandi;Ratnabali Capital;Analyst

analyst
#46

Right, sir. In September '18, it was roughly 2.6, right?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#47

No, sir. It was close to 1.6 million in '18. It was 2.6 in '19, sir.

Sanjay Nandi;Ratnabali Capital;Analyst

analyst
#48

2.6 in '19, okay...

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#49

Yes. And it was close to 1.3 million in '20, September month.

Sanjay Nandi;Ratnabali Capital;Analyst

analyst
#50

Okay, for September month. So sir, this decline is mainly because of the government, like, drop in the government projects mainly?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#51

I think, during that month, monsoon was still active, sir. So we don't know what was responsible, but during the same time, yes, most of the -- there is a slowdown in the government projects. The regulatory -- at this time, regulatory issues was able to get resolved, but still it was in that midst of those issues. And more than these 2 issues, sir, even the monsoon was very, very active. So we don't know what percentage of each of it has impacted, but it was impactful, sir...

Sanjay Nandi;Ratnabali Capital;Analyst

analyst
#52

Sir, this is your industry demand on a month-on-month basis, right?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#53

Yes, sir. This is the demand of the states, sir, both the states of AP and Telangana.

Sanjay Nandi;Ratnabali Capital;Analyst

analyst
#54

Okay. And sir, in the con call [indiscernible ] also guided like the [ Polavaram ] dam project just kicked off in the recent months. So can you just update on that thing, sir? Any update from your end, sir?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#55

Yes. I think the realignment in terms of the contractor is complete, sir. The cement demand just started off probably in the late end of December, but we expect some offtake to start happening only from middle to end of February in a significant volume. Sir, the contractor has changed, so he tends to realign the entire thing to his requirements. So we believe that, the real offtakes, those -- there are some small quantities that have started trickling in, but I think the real volume offtake will start probably from middle to end of February, sir.

Sanjay Nandi;Ratnabali Capital;Analyst

analyst
#56

Okay. And sir, also you mentioned that pet coke prices increased a bit from the exit of FY -- like Q3 FY '20. So what is the current pet coke price, sir, as of now? Like what quantum the increase happened. We just wanted to track that, sir.

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#57

Yes. The spot is -- yes. This -- from $69, I think we are talking of $74 for the end of February landing prices, sir.

Unknown Executive

executive
#58

The U.S. pet coke price...

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#59

U.S. pet coke price...

Sanjay Nandi;Ratnabali Capital;Analyst

analyst
#60

Okay. So currently, it's $74. [indiscernible], right, $74 [indiscernible].

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#61

That is for the February receipts, sir. That's for the February receipts [ at customer count ], yes. There's been a $4 to $5 kind of an increase from the earlier quarter to the current spot price.

Sanjay Nandi;Ratnabali Capital;Analyst

analyst
#62

Okay. And sir, the last question is basically the Satguru and Jajpur plants, as roughly the cost of the project is roughly INR 800 crores. So what will be the quantum of, like, funding from debt of these projects?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#63

It's 50-50, sir. I think the both -- it's on a "one is to one" kind of debt equity, sir. So if -- roughly around INR 400 crore to INR 450 crore will be debt, and the rest is the equity, sir. It could [indiscernible].

Sanjay Nandi;Ratnabali Capital;Analyst

analyst
#64

Okay. And sir, what are your current pricing, sir, in the eastern part of the country, sir? There, prices are literally better than -- so do you feel like one of these things comes into project? Because a Jajpur thing, it will be mainly catering to the eastern markets. So do you feel with that low pricing scenario, with this kind of debt comes -- coming into the books, we'll be able to sustain our bottom line?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#65

What we have factored is the current pricing scenario is not a very healthy one, sir. So we did not factor any differently, yes. We did not factor any differently. We expected 2 things to happen there, yes. The current operational capacities for most recent players is up of 85%. So in our own case we are factoring close to around 70% to 75% capacity utilization. On a pricing front, we don't expect it to be any better, sir. So these are the 2 issues that we have factored in our business plan. So this is that we went ahead. The price is a INR 310 crore project, sir. And we are expecting close to around 70% capacity utilization. On that front, we are expecting an EBITDA contribution of anywhere between 35 to [indiscernible] per year, not more. So this is that we feel the project should be viable on its own.

Sanjay Nandi;Ratnabali Capital;Analyst

analyst
#66

So sir, the [indiscernible] will be placed from the Jajpur thing.

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#67

Yes, sir. We are talking of Jajpur EBITDA.

Sanjay Nandi;Ratnabali Capital;Analyst

analyst
#68

For this, okay.

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#69

Yes.

Operator

operator
#70

The next question is from the line of Swagato Ghosh from Franklin Templeton.

Swagato Ghosh;Franklin Templeton;Analyst

analyst
#71

Yes. Sir, I wanted to understand. In a scenario where AP and Telangana demand remain subdued, which of states can be disrupted from AP and Telangana supplies?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#72

See, I think the historical alignment in terms of what we call as the interregional movement is more or less fixed. So just because the prices in Andhra and Telangana are subdued, I don't expect a major disruption to happen to the other states, sir. If you have noticed, the Hyderabad price inflates more than Bangalore and Chennai. So that is a reflection that the impact will be there, but it may not be something which will be so impactful that it will start impacting the other states. But the usual connected states are Karnataka and Tamil Nadu and to a certain extent Odisha, South Odisha. I mean these are the more connected states with Andhra and Telangana, sir. But for us, for some of the trusted players, like Nalgonda trusted player, obviously we'd not move out significant volume just to service the other better markets because it's too far for them to move and start servicing the far-up markets. Yes, it could be a very opportunistic kind of a thing, but it may not be very, very impactful. It could be very, very marginal impact could happen to those places where the prices are relatively better or there's a margin on a related scale to Andhra and Telangana. That impact could be only marginal, sir. I don't think it is something which -- is the other regions. More or less, that interregional movement is established over quite some time. We don't expect anything new to happen. I mean, if you have seen the Q3, sir, the December pricing is currently the lowest that we have seen. So with that, still the other places, there is not much of a change. Or they did not get as impacted as Andhra and Telangana prices have been.

Swagato Ghosh;Franklin Templeton;Analyst

analyst
#73

Right, right, right. Okay, but you're saying that the states like, say, Maharashtra or slightly on the northern side, the central market, they have never been disrupted from AP and Telangana supplies.

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#74

See, I think the -- it's too far. I mean, see, if you look from a Nalgonda transfer to move even to Maharashtra, you have to cross one more cement cluster where the prices are already established for them. So if you have to really go and compete, which is reasonably lower price now, if you have to go cross that and try to go and service them, I think you would still lose more margin than what you are already losing in Andhra and Telangana. So that's one of the reasons why it may not be as impactful as what people generally think. See, even in Andhra and Telangana prices, most of the industry players during the [ Q3 ] probably would have lost EBITDA, who were purely servicing the Andhra markets. If they further wants to lose money, only then they will be crossing all these cluster sets. So in our experience, that people usually don't be -- would not be going into this, sir People don't try to -- in margin, they might want to lose some margin, but in losses nobody wants to make a loss, sir. I mean, but I think [indiscernible].

Swagato Ghosh;Franklin Templeton;Analyst

analyst
#75

No, fair, fair. And sir, on ground, AP and Telangana, are there smaller players who are currently, like, not operational because of the cash losses they are making? Like I'm talking about, say, in the third quarter...

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#76

I think we have been as well -- as [ mad ] as we have been in the past, sir, nobody shuts down because, see, it's not a transactional kind of a market, sir. It's more a relationship, see, especially when nontrade is not doing well. And you have to service the trade market. And trade market, you cannot switch off just because you are making losses. Because it's more to do with the relationship. So you would not want to antagonize the dealer who has been dealing your product. And you switching it off at this point of time would not make commercial sense or business sense. What we have seen is they probably would slow down, but I don't think they would completely switch off.

Swagato Ghosh;Franklin Templeton;Analyst

analyst
#77

Okay, okay, got it. And sir, one last question is the pet coke price increases that you spoke about. So is it already factoring in the freight increase because of the low-sulfur fuel usage by the shipping companies? Or do you...

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#78

So we are talking of the same. We are again talking of the U.S. pet coke on a landed basis, sir. So I'm assuming that they would have already factored most of these Baltic sea freights and the associated low-sulfur fuel usage for the transportation and all, yes, though in our case we don't really monitor so granularly to each of those cost elements. But probably it should have impacted to that extent.

Operator

operator
#79

The next question is from the line of Jigar Shah from Maybank.

Jigar Shah

analyst
#80

My question pertains to the sustainability practices implementation in cement sector and for your company. So what are your thoughts on this? Because there are a lot of discussions going around, at least globally on the climate change and the carbon reduction, and cement industry has an important job to do over there. So if you can give an idea into what you are doing about it. And what are your thoughts in general?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#81

Yes. I think it's a very ongoing kind of a topic, sir, though -- the marketplace people keep speaking to them on and off, yes. If you look at the Kyoto Protocol, which the government of India signed quite some time back, part of that scheme, there is something called PAT scheme, sir. It's called perform, achieve and trade scheme, where each big to large players have already gone through a couple of cycles in the past cycle. Each PAT cycle is a 3-year cycle, sir. For each of the cycles, we have to demonstrate the efforts, beyond doubt, about cutting the overall energy metrics, be it the transportation fuels, be it the thermal energy in form of coal or pet coke or in terms of electricity, yes. Each of the industry has to demonstrate a 5% reduction for each of the cycle ends. Like from 1 cycle to the other cycle, yes, we should have put effort and demonstrated beyond doubt the reduction in terms of 5%. And the energy is measured in terms of MT volume, sir. Everything is converted into ton equivalent of oil. In this scheme, if you are better than what you are supposed to be, you have an option for a trade. If you are more than what you are supposed to be, you are supposed to buy the credit, sir. So this platform is being monitored by BEE. And part of the IEH trading platform, you are supposed to trade neither positively or negatively. Those are the guiding principles, though the trading is not very, very active, but the -- in general, cement industry in India has made a huge, huge progress on the total account. But that's only a measure on the energy, sir. On the CO2, yes, the cement industry is one of the -- I would not call the largest but one of the large emitter of CO2. The technology to capture this CO2 and put it to use is still in its infancy, but the Indian cement industry probably is making a lot more strides than any of the major other cement industry in trying to offset the CO2 by aggressively adopting the alternate fuel usage. Some of the companies have already signed up towards technologies which would help for a capture, but the reuse of CO2 is still [ advanced ], sir. I mean it is still at the last phase on the global front, so not much of progress is being made. So some of these technologies were extremely expensive. So over last couple of years, we have seen the overall cost, the CapEx and the OpEx that are associated with CO2, have been coming down. Now this is in general, sir. Coming back to Sagar very specifically. Yes, we have been one of those very few companies in India which have adopted the technologies as they come. We have made significant progress in terms of the capture, from identifying the technologies which are likely that we will start getting the things done, but internally there is a target by 2030 that we are hoping to cut 20% CO2 per tonne of cement, yet we would want to cut by 20%, sir. And I think, over the next few months, we should be ready to sign on and start probably 15 to 18 months from then on, yes, we would have implemented a project to show the most definitive 20% reduction in the CO2. Over the next 18 months, we are reasonably sure that we should have signed up and started implementing the project. We -- what we are also doing internally to get the company ratings done. So we have done our product ratings on the [ accordingly ]. And at the same time, yes, we have also done the green certification for our units. One of our units, we already received gold, yes, which is being done by CII. That, it still reflects that, yes, the efforts that we have been putting are progressing very well. And at the same time, we are working towards disclosure on what we have done on this particular front. So for the 2020 year, that is the current financial year, yes, we will be publishing the integrated report from our company, sir, which also has the sustainabilities in it. We have made tremendous progress from where we were to where we are going to be. And at the same time, there is an aggressive road map for us to be one of the strong green companies where emissions and the energy management and everything is going to be on a [ well sharp ] kind of a level. We are partly looking on companies, sir, so we are obligated not just for our society here, but we are also clearly committed towards the investments which are coming to Sagar. So there is a clear-set road map, yes. We have been working on this over last 7 years, sir, so it's not something which we started last year. Our assets at each of the locations that we have, they are world class not only from an efficiency perspective, even from a green perspective, yes. We have become water positive 2 years ahead of schedule. So we don't draw any water from the ground, sir. In fact, we actually have more water than what we consume. We have been extremely efficient in terms of the fuel usage. We are slightly behind on the alternate fuel usage, but there is a road map that we should start reaching to the best of the number in India. We are not far from being one of the greenest cement plant in the country. That is the road map we have. And there is a large team, ecological team, which is working on the technical options that are available across the world. They have been evaluating, and we are not far from firming up on one of them. And probably we are only 18 months away from implementing the -- such solution so that we could demonstrate the cutting the CO2 emissions. Probably we'll be one among the first in India to reach to those numbers, sir, but that's what I would like to highlight at this point of time, sir.

Jigar Shah

analyst
#82

That was very useful. I just want to have one more thing -- understand one more thing on this. So whatever you mentioned in terms of the carbon capture and other activities, what kind of additional costs you are incurring for that?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#83

Sir, at this point of time, the idea is to be neutral on the costs, sir. So that is where we are trying to evaluate various technologies, yes. Some of the working technologies, unfortunately, they are adding quite substantial costs, so it would be margin reduction. So we're not opting at this point of time, yes. Some of those technologies were more suitable when there is a penalty for the CO2. It was helping them to offset that. That was not financially feasible for us here, so we were not opting for them. If we were to opt for them, probably by then -- by now, we would have implemented sufficient, but unfortunately, as we speak, we are trying to be neutral on the cost side. That is the reason why we are taking slightly longer to come up on the technical solutions, sir.

Jigar Shah

analyst
#84

And do you think any acceleration on implementation of this in India, any push from the government or states or anyone...

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#85

Yes. I think what we have to understand, sir, is that the cement industry in India is fairly mature from a technological usage. And the cost of this demand is very, very sensitive. In spite of being heavily taxed and dutied, yes, this probably is the lowest-cost commodity because this is the most viable building material. Historically, any government across the world have been very, very sensitive to this building material, where they do not want to accelerate the cost increases which would impact the overall GDP itself, sir. So what our government has been doing in the past, even now is that we are incubating these ideas in a very, very systematic way. Industry also, in our opinion, is progressing very well because, some of these issues, since they are very, very technical in nature, the addition may not be actually contributing to the savings, sir. It may be counterproductive. So some of these technologies are still in large scale. So reduction, probably we need some [ breathing space ], which I'm sure the regulatory people understand this more than us as they're also watching this very, very closely. But I'm sure that the Indian cement industry, like in the past -- like if you look at the energy efficiencies, probably the Indian industries, they both recover on a global scale. The reduction was fairly quick, but that was not to do with the saving. In this case, the saving is purely from an environment perspective, but as and when the CO2 can be used efficiently and for a product, I'm sure the industry would be -- industry doesn't need a [ push ] study. It's actually an income source also, so they will be ramping even much faster. I mean that's what we soundly believe.

Operator

operator
#86

The next question is from the line of Ritesh Shah from Investec Capital.

Ritesh Shah

analyst
#87

Sir, you did explain that there could be some cost curve support and it would help pricing in the southern region. Sir, given we are expanding in the eastern area, I think the cost curve also won't be very different, and the pricing probably at par or worse than what we are seeing currently in South. Sir, I just wanted to check. Do we have any color on the incentives for the -- both the plants that we are setting up right now to make sense of the return ratios?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#88

See, we are very sure of the incentives that we are receiving in Madhya Pradesh, yes, which is close to 40% capital [ subsidy ], subject to a maximum of INR 150 crores for us, to be received over 7 years time from the implementation date. We are very clear in Madhya Pradesh. The Odisha project, it's still in negotiation, sir, so we have not yet reached to a point where we are sure of what we would receive, but our usual practice is to look at incentives as a separate. So we ensure that our investments are self-sustaining in terms of the viability. Incentives should add up to the return ratios, but as such, excluding them, we were not expecting a huge, huge kind of a windfall kind of a return, but we were expecting close to around 15% to 18% kind of a return ratio basis which we took an investment call on both of those assets. That was excluding the incentives, sir. I think these incentives should add up to the margin that we were expecting. Probably Odisha might take another 6 months, before which we would get to know the real incentives. Madhya Pradesh, we already received the government orders pertaining to the project, sir. As indicated, it is INR 150 crores on a INR 480 crore kind of a project, sir.

Ritesh Shah

analyst
#89

INR 150 crores. And sir, this will be in the form of as GST setup; or like 50%, 100%...

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#90

It's a capital subsidy to be paid over 7 years, sir. Roughly around INR 20-odd crores per year is what we would be receiving as an incentive. It is not offset against the GST, sir.

Ritesh Shah

analyst
#91

Okay, that helps. Sir, secondly, in the presentation slide I see that there has been movement of cement via rakes, and it wasn't there last 2 years. I think, sir, from Q1 '19. I haven't checked the prior presentations. So sir, what happened in the marketplace? Like the demand was weak, and you did indicate in the initial comments that competitive intensity was high. Sir, can you help with some color, please?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#92

Yes. We just did one rake from our Visakh grinding station towards the Odisha market, sir. So we had some special products that we had to supply to [indiscernible]. And we were also looking at, at that point of time, the availability of trucks towards the East from the regions that we operate was becoming challenging. So we sensed that and we moved the rake, yes. It was also testing the infrastructure in that particular [indiscernible]. It's a one-off kind of an event, probably might continue, but that was more on a client basis that we move the rake from Visakh grinding station towards the Odisha market, yes.

Ritesh Shah

analyst
#93

Okay. Sir, so one shouldn't correlate this with any industry trends like the rakes actively moving into AP and Telangana.

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#94

Yes. As already said, I think interregional movement trends are fixed. So there could be one-off events, sir, but usually in the past, yes, at least over last 1.5 decades, I haven't seen a major shift in the interregional movements. So, so far...

Ritesh Shah

analyst
#95

Okay. [indiscernible].

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#96

Yes. So this is one-off kind of an event that we have done, but why that typically moves the material towards the eastern market, sir. So that cannot be assumed that it is something very unusual. We only switched the transportation mode when [indiscernible] was moving earlier by truck, you are moving by rake. That's the only reason, sir.

Operator

operator
#97

The next question is from the line of Rajesh Ravi from HDFC Securities.

Rajesh Ravi

analyst
#98

Yes. Sir, I have a few questions. First, on the sales mix, will you share what will be [ our state-wide uses ] even on a broad basis? That will be helpful.

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#99

Yes, we would be happy to share that, sir. If you could e-mail, we would be happy...

Rajesh Ravi

analyst
#100

Sure, sir. And secondly, on the CPP which is just, you know, ramping up. So what sort of cost solution it will be -- cost reduction it will be helping it with, sir?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#101

Yes. I think, on a large sense, sir, there are 2 things. Right now, we are running the -- it's an 18-megawatt CPP. We are running close to around 7.5 to 8 megawatts, sir. It is mostly to do with the demand and the running of the unit, which is completely run. Per month, we are expecting INR 2 crores additional savings on account of CPP, sir.

Rajesh Ravi

analyst
#102

Okay. So will it be replacing grid power and that's where this INR 2 crore run rate saving you are looking at?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#103

We could cut the CMD charges from the grids. And it will be grid power, sir.

Rajesh Ravi

analyst
#104

Okay. And you are also factoring in the additional fly ash that you will be getting in from the CPP?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#105

These -- that is very small quantity, sir. Yes, [indiscernible] but in a very small quantity, sir.

Rajesh Ravi

analyst
#106

Okay. And sir, on the debt front, you mentioned INR 8,000 crores -- INR 800 crores net debt. So that does -- that also includes, sir, working capital.

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#107

Yes, sir, it includes the working capital. It includes the -- all the term and the working capital across all the subsidiaries also.

Rajesh Ravi

analyst
#108

Okay. And sir, this CapEx outflow for between FY '20, '21, '22, how would that be structured because first time we have not done much total CapEx on consol basis, if we look at it.

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#109

I think the bulk of the CapEx would start, starting from April onwards, sir. So bulk of the CapEx, you would start seeing in the coming 2 years. Out of INR 800 crores, so far, we have spent around INR 150-odd crores. So close to around INR 650 crores would be equally spread between next 2 years. It could probably slightly skew more towards the next year. And then these reconstructions, they are complicating the current financial year. So we expect close to around INR 350 crores to be spent next year and the rest to be spent in the subsequent year.

Rajesh Ravi

analyst
#110

Okay. And sir, in addition to sales and [ crew ], what other CapEx would be pending?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#111

Yes. We usually do a INR 30 crore kind of operational -- I mean, operational CapEx, the maintenance CapEx, what we call. That is assumed for the other operating assets, sir. That's the usual number that we factor in.

Rajesh Ravi

analyst
#112

Okay. And lastly, in terms of working capital, do we see, by March end, we will see some reduction in our working capital level, which has gone up versus March level in September?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#113

I will wait until middle of February before taking a call on that, sir, because that is subject to governments putting their money into the long overdues. But that, first, can be a number of early days. Until that happens, we don't expect a major change to happen in terms of our working capital bucket.

Rajesh Ravi

analyst
#114

Okay. And lastly, on the warrant reversal. We have done half of the warrants, [ how many ] is already converted...

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#115

In Q1, I think we should have -- by Q1, we should have converted the residual...

Rajesh Ravi

analyst
#116

Okay, Q1 FY '21, will -- the residual 1.5 million shares will get converted, great. That could be a good sign for the [indiscernible] further, yes.

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#117

Yes.

Operator

operator
#118

The next question is from the line of [ Kunal Shah ] from Yes Securities.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#119

Yes. Sir, just one question from my side. Talking to dealers in AP and Telangana, they indicated that there's a tactical change in stance where a few players have clear priority being volume dispatches over pricing. Now can you share your view on the same? And if that's the case, what can be a sustainable price? Because it's been quite volatile lately. So are the Q2 levels sustainable?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#120

Actually, I think we believe that the [ Q3 ] pricing was one of the worst that we have seen over a decade. The exit price of Q3 at INR 200 in Hyderabad, though it looks slightly better compared to INR 190, but from a margin perspective, we had INR 200 price in Hyderabad probably is the worst that we have seen in a decade. Some of the players which we have -- our assessment was not as depressive as you -- probably your conversation with the dealers was, yes. At these prices, we don't expect a major push for volumes from any players because I'm sure it is a totally washout kind of a pricing. From December end, where we have seen INR 200 kind of a price in Hyderabad, yes, we did through end of January. Right now, we are looking at INR 20 kind of price reading in Hyderabad, sir. Here, if somebody is trying to push for volume, A, I think the demand naturally should absorb some amount of volumes -- incremental volumes, from Q3 to Q4. That may not to a great extent impact the pricing. If somebody is trying to push far more than what market is accepting, yes, then the price impact could be felt. But I have to keep my fingers crossed on that particular thing, sir. I don't know. At least we are very, very clear that we would not want to transact unless we get durable price. And so far, our movement is not yet impacted. So our assumption is that there is an acceptance for a slight price increase than what we have seen. We would have got resistance for our volume if it was contrary to what we think. So there is some gap, but ideally we would want, like last year, from January to February, there was an INR 80 price increase. If we were targeting that kind of a number, probably to the extent it could be even higher. In our belief, reaching 250, we don't see it as a challenge at all. I think that is the minimum viable kind of a price. The pricing scenario is -- I think, in our interactions with most of the dealer network and the consumers and the retail network, is that somewhere around 280 to 300, there is not much of a resistance. I think it's more kind of a market outlook, and the liquidity flow should push us towards that price. It could take some time, but we are hopeful that it should be reached there. But we are cement guys, so we -- there is always this urge to do more during the end of the quarter. That's the only risk that we would like to slightly mitigate in due course of time, but that's the risk that is sitting on top of us at this point of time.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#121

Yes. Because even in December the prices were subdued, but what we hear is a few of the companies have done the [ higher sales ] in Hyderabad. So what -- the sense that we were getting is that there were attempts to hike the prices, but then it essentially gets rolled back. So I just wanted to...

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#122

I see, I just want to -- yes. December was a milestone for some of the years in terms of the year-end, sir, the financial year-end. Same could be the case in March, but we are a good 1, 1.5 months away from people getting excited about the year-end milestone. So there is hope. So I'm only taking the result of what has happened in the last year. So my belief is that it's likely that we could do what we have done in the last year. But...

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#123

But -- all right. So yes, basically the sustainable levels will be somewhere between 240 to 250, where we can...

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#124

I think between 250 to 280 should be sustainable. Beyond that, this always is a challenge. The sustainable band, again, it depends from company to company. I think that's a more sustainable band. It probably will start getting pressurized probably end of March. From our side, we started putting effort to slowly take the price up in our own case because we have [ significant one to effect ]. From December to Jan, we have seen [ tendency to effect, to hike ] for ourselves. And with retail we have seen close to INR 20 increase. That went reasonably okay. So another effort of trying to increased by -- at least we want to reach up to 250 on our own readings. If there's any resistance, we would be more than happy to come back to you in due course of time, but we would need time. We need to end of this month before we would -- end of February before we -- you want to know how that [ result where we're ] trying to take the price up the way we wanted it to ramp.

Operator

operator
#125

The next question is from the line of Subrata Sarkar from Dalmia Securities.

Subrata Sarkar;Dalmia Securities;Analyst

analyst
#126

Yes. Sir, my questions are answered. Thanks for the [ opportunity ].

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#127

Thank you.

Operator

operator
#128

The next question is from the line of Prateek Kumar from Antique Stockbroking.

Prateek Kumar

analyst
#129

Yes. Sir, my first question is regarding the BMM pricing. So let me just do like this mathematical thing of consolidated minus stand-alone operations. We have the BMM pricing is like higher by 4% quarter-on-quarter versus like stand-alone pricing looks like 12% decline quarter-on-quarter. So is there some change in market mix...

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#130

No, no, no. There is -- see, the growth challenge is from Mattampally you will be servicing the Odisha and Maharashtra markets, whereas from BMM we are servicing Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Rayalaseema markets. On the realization front, yes, there is some realignment because there is some product mix that -- there has been a change. I'm sure we disclosed this close to 2 quarters back about PSC also being manufactured from BMM. And the blending ratio has gone up at BMM also. And at the same time, the Rayalaseema market, there has been -- there is some realignment in terms of the market reach even in Andhra. [indiscernible] markets have been more serviced from BMM compared to Mattampally. So that's probably realigned and made the realization look up. And we've also increased our presence in Tamil Nadu to the far-up markets than in other markets of Tamil Nadu. That probably would have shown up in the realization at a positive kind of a contribution. But in general the overall market trend was negative. But for a small realignment in terms of the product as well as the -- some of the markets, sir, it is reflecting. But that's more internal realignment rather than market realignment, sir.

Prateek Kumar

analyst
#131

Right. And sir, any specific reason for Kerala market in disarray versus like -- I mean AP and Telangana are understandable. Why is Kerala market is on a turmoil in terms of demand.

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#132

We are not even a minor player there, sir, so I cannot comment much on those markets. Our North market is very, very limited because we don't service Kerala market from any of our assets at this point of time. So our [ know ] on the ground is very, very limited, so I cannot really add any value -- so I would like to pass the question that you have for me on that.

Prateek Kumar

analyst
#133

Okay. And you said [indiscernible] is being ramped up completely, but in current quarter we had only 50% utilization, so -- or...

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#134

Because Mattampally operated less than 44.

Prateek Kumar

analyst
#135

Yes, right, so why did we say that it's ramped up fully? So savings should be more if we have high utilization from that plant.

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#136

Capacity went up, sir, but utilization came down. So the -- it's a very simple math to take. So we are producing more whenever it is running, but we ran it for a less number of times because [ kiln ] was down for most of the time.

Prateek Kumar

analyst
#137

Okay, but some of the efficiencies during the quarter would have got impacted because of lower utilization in terms of power plant...

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#138

I think, the real savings potential, you will see in Q4, sir. We hope to run it for more. So the savings number would start magnifying because all the things would have run at its reasonably optimal level. That includes -- typically that includes basic recovery, and that includes [indiscernible].

Prateek Kumar

analyst
#139

Yes, right. Sir, my question was more on [ feeling ] that saving efficiency would have got impacted because of low utilization...

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#140

That's a [ factor ], sir. That should get factored even more in the -- because Q3 we did not run enough, sir. I mean, as disclosed, we are close to 40-odd percent. So from there, if you start going up, things should start getting reflected more. The whole of October in Q3, we were not operating, sir, so there was no contribution during the October.

Prateek Kumar

analyst
#141

Okay. And just last question. On this regional capacity which -- when we talk about how they -- have they hit the market already? The new capacities is expected in FY '20, [ Penna ] and

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#142

Not yet fully, except for [ Penna ]. I think [ Chekina ] though their grinding station is operational, but the clinker line is not yet operational, sir. I think it should be Q1 of next year. But the real market position, sir, I think market was down. So we don't track each of the individual companies so soon, so we don't know what -- how each of them has behaved. So, market was down. So we have not seen any new volumes coming into the market during the Q3, hitting the markets, sir.

Prateek Kumar

analyst
#143

So then [ Penna ] will be [ later ] to FY '20?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#144

No. I think [ Penna ] is operational, sir, but [ Penna ], it was more meant for servicing the eastern and the other markets than the southern markets. So if you look at -- the clinker line probably got commissioned, and the grinding station in [ Visakhapatnam ]. And their ships are supposed to service the other non-South markets. So I think they became operational, sir, right? I don't think there is a -- there has been a delay, but I think they became operational now.

Operator

operator
#145

The next question is from the line of Pritesh Sheth from CRISIL.

Pritesh Sheth;CRISIL;Analyst

analyst
#146

Just firstly, on the demand. So you have given how was the trend year-to-date state-wise. Can you break it out for this quarter?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#147

Sir, I think a quarter would be a challenge. I can comment the last month quarter, we will be happy to share that number, but yes, the December month, AP was minus 15%, sir. A couple of months back, it was minus 30%, so it has come down to minus 15%. And mind you, the last -- the previous year was the best year for -- best year ever. So we reached the -- we were close to around 31-odd million. So comparing with that last year would always be [indiscernible] because preceding immediately the -- following the year of the election, it always has been that. But if I have to compare this the same month the earlier year, sir, it was only 20.5 million during the December FY '18. If I had to compare with FY '19, it was 29 million -- I mean 2.9 million, sorry. If you compare with FY '20, it is 25 million. Now if I have to compare with last year, it is minus 15%, sir. If I have to compare with the year before that, we are flat by almost 20%. So...

Pritesh Sheth;CRISIL;Analyst

analyst
#148

Okay, okay. And so now with the policy being laid out of 3 capitals for Andhra Pradesh, so do you think the awarding will be in more now from the government side? And will that push demand?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#149

Sir, I think you have to bear with us. We have not factored, even in the past, anything associated with capital. So in our assumption, we agreed we are reasonably [ current ] about what is likely to happen on the capital issue. So we have not factored anything out of that. So our outlook is minus the capital, sir. So capital could always be sub-price. Since we have not factored, it cannot be negative. If it is anything positive, it will only add up to our outlook. It will not be negating our outlook.

Pritesh Sheth;CRISIL;Analyst

analyst
#150

Right. And so how much does the [ Polavaram ] Project use to contribute in terms of demand monthly?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#151

That is a very small number, sir. It adds up, but it's a -- it's a relatively a small number, sir.

Pritesh Sheth;CRISIL;Analyst

analyst
#152

Okay, but the industry is very positive about that project being reawarded, so I just wanted to check...

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#153

Given context, we are happy about every bag that gets added up. So we are [ not ] recording that, but it's not something which is very, very sizable as we speak. Probably when it -- at its peak, probably it should start contributing close to around 100,000 tonnes per month. So at its peak. Right now, it's getting restarted, so as we speak, probably for coming months and probably before this year-end, we are not factoring too much out of [ Polavaram ]. Probably next year onwards -- for each of the months from the next year onwards, it should probably make 100,000 per month kind of a contribution.

Pritesh Sheth;CRISIL;Analyst

analyst
#154

Okay, okay. And so right now the only issue is with the contractor payments. So if that restarts, and all the projects would start kicking in?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#155

Yes, I'm sorry. I just want to clarify. That's not the only issue, but that's an important issue, sir, so...

Operator

operator
#156

The next question is from the line of [ Jignesh Shah ], an individual investor. Sorry. It seems the line is on hold. We'll move to the next question. That is from the line of Ritesh Shah from Investec Capital.

Ritesh Shah

analyst
#157

Sir, one last question. Sir, which are the incremental capacity additions that we are expecting in Eastern and Southern India over the next 6 to 12 months?

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#158

It's -- yes. It's a big number, sir. We would be happy to share that. South, we are only expecting in Q1, except in our clinker line in [indiscernible] to come up. And probably, by Q2, we are expecting the ramp of [ clinker ] line [indiscernible]...

Unknown Executive

executive
#159

[indiscernible], I will put it.

Ritesh Shah

analyst
#160

Okay. Sir, I'll take these numbers later from you.

Operator

operator
#161

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that will be the last question for today. I now hand the conference over to the management for their closing comments. Thank you, and over to you.

Sammidi Reddy

executive
#162

Thank you. Yes, we would like -- again like to thank you again for joining on the call. I hope you had all the answers you're looking for. Please feel free to contact our team at Sagar or Citigate should you need any further information or you have any further queries, and we will be more than happy to discuss them with you. Thank you, and have a good day.

Operator

operator
#163

Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of Sagar Cements Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you all for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.

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