S&P Global Inc. (SPGI) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
September 13, 2022
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Keen Fai Tong
analystGood morning, everyone. Thanks for being here with us. I'm George Tong. I cover business and information services at Goldman. I'm really pleased to be joined by Ewout Steenbergen, CFO of S&P. Ewout, thank you for being here with us.
Ewout Steenbergen
executiveThank you, George, and congratulations with the conference.
Keen Fai Tong
analystThank you.
Ewout Steenbergen
executiveI understand this is the largest conference ever in the history of Goldman, so really fantastic achievement. So congratulations.
Keen Fai Tong
analystIt is. Thank you. Thank you.
Keen Fai Tong
analystSo S&P has now owned IHS Markit for over 6 months. It was quite the transformative merger. Can you give us an update on how the integration process is going? And what key initiatives you're focused on to ensure that the integration is a success?
Ewout Steenbergen
executiveYes. Well, first, George, I think we make a flying start out of the gate once we got the antitrust approvals and could close on the merger transaction, and the reason is that we took the 15 months between signing and closing to get really well prepared in all aspects of the integration. So just to mention a couple of areas. First, from an organizational perspective, I think we have had immediately clarity about our operating model, our overall structure. We had already made 4 to 5 layers down appointments in terms of leadership positions, so it feels today already as we are really running the company as an integrated company about 6 months now in. So that's really great. I think the second area where a lot of work is still going on is with respect to all the systems integration. So as you understand, both companies have very large systems, is it around -- maybe around general ledger and ERP or HR systems or order-to-cash systems, Salesforce, CRM systems and so on. So those have to be integrated, but those are also well along the way. So just to give you an example, IHS had 6 general ledger systems. S&P Global had always 1 ERP system, so more centralized, and we're moving those in. And we will have -- make a very big step with that integration already in November of this year. So things are on track with respect to the overall systems integration. On the people and social side, it really feels good because it really feels we're coming together. It really feels that we're already one team. If we would invite you to an event and you would meet the people around, it would be very hard for you to say who is former IHS Markit, who is former S&P Global. We're already in terms of the way -- how we operate very, very integrated. And then, of course, synergy realization, that's a very important aspect. Also there, we had already built up very detailed plans in order to the achievements. And what we disclosed when we did our second quarter earnings release was that on a run rate basis for the cost synergies, we're already at $260 million out of the total $600 million. So I think after 4 months to be at close to half, I think, is a really great achievement. And obviously, we'll continue to execute, so we really want to make sure that we accelerate the plans and are in a really good position at the start of 2023. And then with respect to revenue synergies, it's early. Those will come in just gradually over time. That's still early, but the early indications are clearly positive as well. So I would say, so far, so good. Of course, this is a huge integration. It's large. There's a very high level of complexity. There's always things that need to happen but to correct that along the way.
Keen Fai Tong
analystRight. Ewout, you mentioned you're accelerating some of your cost synergies to mitigate some of the Ratings near-term headwinds on the cost side. Where in the business are you seeing most opportunity for that pull forward, for that acceleration on the cost synergy side?
Ewout Steenbergen
executiveYes. I think that is in all different areas, George. So the largest category is on the people side, so we have duplication in roles, duplication in layers, so eliminating that. And we like to go fast. I don't think that's only economically a good decision. That's also socially a good decision. The sooner you can give clarity to the organization in terms of the future structure, you take anxiety out. So that's actually a good acceleration for multiple reasons. The second area is with respect to real estate. We have very clear plans in terms of integration in all of our large cities, so more than 30 cities now. And we learn along the way, particularly with the hybrid working model going forward, there's continuously reconsideration. Do we need so much space? Can we further reduce the space going forward? And then the third area is in sourcing, and that was an area I originally was a little concerned because, obviously, there is inflationary pressure there as well. So can we achieve our synergies in the procurement space, a little bit rowing against the current, so to say. But also, that is going very well, and I'm very pleased on the contracts that we have so far renegotiated. So I would say in all those areas, we're pushing as hard as we can.
Keen Fai Tong
analystThat's great. You mentioned the total run rate cost synergy target of $600 million. What are your latest thoughts on the timing of the $600 million in years 1, 2 and 3? And do you see potential upside to that number? In the past, you have raised that number before. So what are your latest thoughts?
Ewout Steenbergen
executiveYes. Well, maybe to first answer the second part of that question, so we're not raising it. We have raised it already twice. Obviously, as management, we're never satisfied. So we always try to find new ways, but the $600 million is the number at this moment. In terms of the phasing, we think that we'll achieve 40% of that number in year 2022, so not run rate, but achieved actually in the P&L for this year, 80% in 2023 and then fully in 2024.
Keen Fai Tong
analystGreat. Let's talk a little bit about revenue synergies, which we touched on a little bit earlier, $350 million total. Where do you see most potential? I think in the past, you've highlighted Market Intelligence. You've highlighted Commodity Insights and Indices. How does the phasing look like? And how would you stack order the opportunity for revenue synergy?
Ewout Steenbergen
executiveYes. It's still the same categories. And of course, that makes sense because the largest groups of businesses that are coming together is in Market Intelligence, then the second largest is in the Commodity Insight business, and the third largest is in the Index business. So that's why those 3 are the most important. And then there are, of course, some cross-company synergies as well on the revenue side in terms of cross-sell or even joint product development. So those are the main 4 categories. We have always said it's coming later in time from a phasing perspective. So this year, relatively minimal; then next year, around 20%; then you go to 50%, 75% and 100%. So that is about the phasing. What we have seen is that the early indications are really positive. It's anecdotal. When we meet customers, they're really excited about what more we can offer. They say, "What can you bring more to the table?" So really positive conversations, and that also makes sense because a lot of our customers use multiple data providers. And if they can really limit that going forward, use less screens and have more concentrated providers that can have a broader offering, that's, of course, in their interest as well. So actually, that's a positive. From an early indication numerically perspective, so in the first 4 months, we had already 2,000 leads and introductions. And the conversion levels on that really look healthy as well. We will give you an update with our third quarter results, but that's, I think, another tangible indication. In terms of contracts so far signed, we're a little ahead what we originally thought. But again, the numbers are really small, so I wouldn't draw too big conclusions out of it. But so far, so good, right?
Keen Fai Tong
analystS&P is increasingly a technology company, which is very appropriate since we're at a technology conference here. So can you talk a little bit about overall S&P's tech strategy? Where are you focused from an investment perspective? How does S&P differentiate itself with its tech stack and tech platform relative to competitors?
Ewout Steenbergen
executiveYes. I think the differentiation comes on the front office side, George. Not so much -- of course, the infrastructure running that efficiently with the right level of cyber protection and so on, that all makes sense, moving to the cloud with our infrastructure in terms of faster development times and the other benefits that come with that. But I think the differentiation is really on the front office side. And I think that's actually a benefit of the merger with IHS Markit because IHS Markit brings a lot of software businesses, workflow tools. And the combination of that with data makes the products more sticky. So I can give an example. We have, for example, iLEVEL, which is a private equity platform. The more we can add also private equity data, private equity company data, asset data to it, now such a product, of course, becomes more interesting for the users. And you become more sticky, and that is a benefit. In general, if I maybe make a step backwards, I think the whole technology world and the whole data world will start to more and more converge. And we see that because we have a lot of collaboration with some of the large stack companies because tech is often more valuable if you also can run the data over it or even for new tech in terms of artificial intelligence, you need, in fact, to have training data in order to improve your algorithm. So you see that Kensho is working together with a couple of the real top AI companies around the world because they are often looking for that training data, and we happen to sit on the largest data for financial markets, corporate markets, commodity markets. So actually, from my perspective, this is actually 2 worlds that will come closer and closer together in the future.
Keen Fai Tong
analystRight, right. Let's turn our attention to the Ratings business, which is always a fun topic to explore.
Ewout Steenbergen
executiveI thought you would not ask today.
Keen Fai Tong
analystRight. So on your 2Q earnings call, you had updated your guidance for full year Ratings revenue to decline low to mid-20s; billed issuance volumes, down 30% to 45%. That actually assumes that performance over the rest of the year mirrors issuance volume performance from July and June, which were quite depressed. So how has your view on issuance performance evolved, if at all, given performance we've seen over the past several weeks?
Ewout Steenbergen
executiveI think, generally, we should assume we're still in that 30% to 45% billed issuance decline range. We've seen certain weeks where there were some hopeful indications. Particularly at the beginning of August, there were some high-yield issuance, and it looked like the markets were open. But obviously, that is driven by the overall market expectations. But then we, of course, saw that reversing again in the second half of August. So I think we should still be, I think, very careful about the outlook. Maybe September numbers in absolute numbers will be higher, but that's always the case because the summer months are slow. So we're also looking at more difficult comps from September of last year. So I think, generally, the 30% to 45% is, I think, still the right range to think about.
Keen Fai Tong
analystRight. Now the high-yield markets have been under particular pressure over the past summer. Volumes, down 75%, 80% or more. But we've seen sort of signs of life in recent weeks. When do you expect the high-yield market to come back? And what are the conditions that we would need to see to support that?
Ewout Steenbergen
executiveYes. Well, first of all, we really believe there is a huge pipeline, and there are a lot of issuers that want to go to the market. Many have the possibility to push it out because they refinanced the last 2 years. Their cash balances are still healthy. Some need to find some great opportunities. But once this market start to open, it will open in a strong way. So there's -- we always speak about pull forward. There's probably something like a push backwards a little bit happening at this moment. In terms of market conditions, because this is a demand-driven issue for the markets, in my view, 2 things need to happen. First, there needs to be clarity around how much does the Fed need to hike rates over the next period. So when does inflation get under control? When does that start to flatten off and come down? And when can the Fed really put its feet a little bit off the brake because you don't want as a fixed income manager buy this paper, which obviously is higher risk and immediately have a mark to market on the risk-free side. And then the second is what will happen with spreads. And this is the same issue, but it is linked to the outlook of how hard the recession will be. Will it be a soft landing or more severe recession? And then obviously, because these are lower credit names, they might be more in a financial distress during a harder recession. And what happens then for the risk premium element to it? So clarity about where rates will go, clarity where spreads will go, which is all related to clarity where the overall economy is going. And no one really knows, obviously, at that point in time.
Keen Fai Tong
analystRight, right. Yes. That makes sense. During 2020 and 2021, there was a significant amount of pull forward in debt issuance because of the low-rate environment. As you look at the refinancing pipeline, how does it look to you over the next 1 year, year -- 3 years and in 5 years in terms of just how much refinancing activity will...
Ewout Steenbergen
executiveWe put some stats out around that with our second quarter earnings call, so I would definitely invite everyone who hasn't seen it to look at our slide deck that we published at the beginning of August. And what you see there is actually the pipeline is really healthy for '23, '24, '25 and so on. And of course, a lot of the debt that is due in '24, most likely a part of that will be refinanced next year. We see that also, I think today in activity, investment grades generally looks fine in terms of market activity even today. So we think that, that pipeline will be helpful over the next period, or to say in a different way, we know this market is coming back. Nothing has fundamentally shifted. It's really a timing matter. When is it coming back? No one can really say it. But anyone who looks at S&P Global and thinks about us as a medium-term to longer-term investment opportunity, that doesn't matter because maybe it comes next quarter, maybe it comes the first quarter of next year or the third quarter of next year, but it comes. It will come in terms of revenue recognition at some point over the next 3 years. So I think that's the aspect. I think it very much depends on your horizon. But in the end, we'll all see the revenues coming in at some point in time for the company.
Keen Fai Tong
analystRight, right. Would you expect a refinancing wall to hit at any point? And sort of before that wall hits you maybe hit an air pocket of less refi activity?
Ewout Steenbergen
executiveI think we're in the air pocket right now.
Keen Fai Tong
analystAnd would that persist or...
Ewout Steenbergen
executiveWell, at some point, I think the pressure starts to build up. And issuers will say, I, at some point, need to go because I don't want to be with my back against the wall. Actually, if this happens -- if this continues too long, I don't think a lot has been published around this. But if access for high-yield names to debt markets will be restricted for a longer period of time, I think, at some point, even the central bankers have to start to be mindful of that because that will have a negative consequence for the economy in general. But I think so far, companies look healthy. They can push it out a bit. And then there's definitely also some bridges that are happening, either through bank loans or some private credit.
Keen Fai Tong
analystRight, right. Within S&P's Ratings business, about 57% of revenue is non-transaction based. So can you talk a little bit about the various revenue streams within your non-transaction Ratings business, how those revenue streams are performing in the current credit capital markets?
Ewout Steenbergen
executiveYes. And we like to point that out because, yes, there is this pressure on -- temporary on the Ratings business, but the fundamentals of the business model there are still completely intact. But the other businesses actually continue to perform well, show very good resilience in the current environment. So second quarter, those businesses grew 7%, and we think that's a really good achievement. And we're still looking at for the full year approximately at the midpoint of our guidance range, about 180 basis points margin expansion for those businesses. So we think, yes, those businesses are not immune. There are small areas where there's a little bit of impact. For example, a little bit Russia sanctions impact on Commodity Insights, a little bit capital market impact on Market Intelligence and so on. But generally, these businesses are holding up very well also in the current environment.
Keen Fai Tong
analystRight. As you look at the broader credit capital markets, have you seen any structural changes to how corporates are perhaps managing their balance sheet that could potentially change how medium-term growth performance in the Ratings business comes in?
Ewout Steenbergen
executiveNot so much. In the end, public markets are still often the most efficient market. And so -- and you see that investment grade continues -- the market continues to be functioning in a very healthy way. Below investment grade is difficult. But again, at some point, that will open up when there's more clarity about the direction of the economy and rates. And I'm still a big believer that the public capital markets ultimately will be the most efficient and leads to the best outcomes for issuers. And in the end, it's hard to believe that there will be another form of capital that is going to be cheaper than debt capital market raising. So also from that angle, this probably continues to be the most attractive form.
Keen Fai Tong
analystRight. What do you think about the private markets as a potential alternative to public debt? And could that longer term be an opportunity for S&P?
Ewout Steenbergen
executiveYes. Well, there's a lot of conversation around this, as you know. And it's -- definitely, it is a trend. It was always there, but more for SME kind of companies. That has moved up the chain, particularly because if the public markets were not open for the lower credits, then this was an alternative at this moment. The question is, one, how long are those credits staying on those books. And maybe at some point, they have to get syndicated out. If it has to be syndicated out, you need an objective party to do a credit assessment of those names. Hence, there's a ratings activity that needs to happen. And secondly, I think, at some point, some of those credits need to refinance. And if the public credit markets are open and again more efficient, then there's probably going to be some replacement at that point as well. So I think it is definitely a trend, but there's probably a trend that has been a little bit at this point in time a little bit being exaggerated due to the macro environment. And to some extent, that will subside again at some point in the future.
Keen Fai Tong
analystRight. And wrapping up our discussion on the Ratings business, what's your latest view on what the longer-term growth outlook for the Ratings business should be for S&P?
Ewout Steenbergen
executiveGeorge, we will tell you and all our shareholders on December 1 when we have our Investor Day. So at that point, we will give aspirational multiyear targets for all of our businesses.
Keen Fai Tong
analystOkay. Wonderful. So maybe moving on to the Market Intelligence business. That segment has sustained pretty healthy mid- to high single-digit revenue growth over the course of many quarters. Recently, though, we've seen a little bit of a pullback because of impact of reduced capital markets activity. Can you perhaps give us an update on what you're seeing there if some of the trends have stabilized, if you're starting to see growth come back to more historical levels?
Ewout Steenbergen
executiveI think, in general, that business is doing very well. All the different parts of the business, so Desktop, Data, the Enterprise Solutions and then also the credit risk management solution. So generally, it is doing very well. What you see short term is 2 aspects. FX is probably shaving off about 1 point of growth, and then the other is within Enterprise Solutions which is a broad bucket. And for example, some of the software and workflow businesses are part of that. There's also the business that is focused on capital markets. And with very little IPO activity and very little book-building activity around debt issuance, there is about 1 point impact on the overall MI growth from that business, which is formerly known as the IPO platform. So those are the 2 things that I can point at. Otherwise, I think the business is doing well and is absolutely on track, and there's no difference in terms of trends we have seen in the past.
Keen Fai Tong
analystGot it. With Commodity Insights, you have 2 businesses coming together. You've got Platts, and then you have the IHS Markit business. How do those businesses perform differently within the current energy environment? And where are you starting to see synergies of those 2 businesses as they come together?
Ewout Steenbergen
executiveIn general, I would say, Commodity Insights, really great momentum. I think the current pricing in the commodity markets are supportive for most of our customers, not all, because, of course, they are on both sides of the trade. But generally, it is a positive environment for our customers. We see that in subscription growth. We see that in retention levels. We see that in cross-sell, and we also see that actually in the upstream business, which was a business that came over from IHS Markit and had been struggling for a longer period of time. In our due diligence work, we always expected that to bottom out in the second half of last year. But actually, that business is now growing again, excluding the impact of the Russia-Ukraine sanction. So I would say generally, that business is in a very good position and a lot really to see the momentum of the business and particularly also of that leadership.
Keen Fai Tong
analystRight. With your Index business, you actually trimmed your guidance for full year 2022 because of declines we've seen in AUM year-to-date. How are factors like synergies and exchange-traded derivatives and fund flows into S&P Indices working to offset some of the headwinds that you're seeing from the AUM perspective?
Ewout Steenbergen
executiveAll of that helps, and all of that are obviously good drivers. So I think, in general, what you see is when the markets are a little bit more disruptive and volatile, you see often single name investments being exited and that people park their money into more the large benchmark indices. So actually, you have seen that flows actually remained relatively healthy for us over the last period. Exchange-traded derivatives, that is usually the offset in that business as well. So when there is more market depreciation and uncertainty, the derivative trading, S&P 500 futures, options, fixed and so on is going up. And we also make money out of that in terms of the fee levels, together with our exchange partners. And then, in general, I would say synergies are really helpful for the company. So I think we are in a very fortunate position that, yes, we have inflationary pressure on compensation like any other company at this point in time, some on the technology side. And then we make some specific strategic investments. But then the flip side is we have a couple of tools in our toolbox in terms of levers that we can use at this moment, besides, of course, the normal management actions and incentive comp. And that is using those cost synergies. So I think -- and it's an element that I'm really proud of that the second quarter, our total expenses were just up 1%. I think in a high inflationary environment, to achieve just 1% growth of the expense level in total, I think, in my view, is a really proof point that we're on the right track with that. And that's, in general, but obviously also for the Index business applicable.
Keen Fai Tong
analystRight. Let's look at the Mobility business. That business came over from IHS Markit. Historically, when it was part of IHS Markit, it grew high single digits pretty consistently. What, if any, has -- if anything has changed with this -- with the Mobility business' growth algo since the merger? And what impact has the supply chain constraints had, if any, on the business?
Ewout Steenbergen
executiveYes. It's fascinating because we always talk about the Index business with the inherent hedge of the different parts of the revenue streams. To some extent, you could say the same is the case with Mobility because what we are seeing with the current very tight car market is that the OEMs, the car manufacturers feel less in need, obviously, to spend money on sales and marketing activities. So that is slowing down the growth in that area. But on the flip side is if you look at the dealerships, they actually have record margins at this moment. And that is very helpful because we see retention levels there were very high in that market. We see cross-sell going up a lot in that market. So actually, the 2 are offsetting. And therefore, you see the overall growth in the Mobility business still at quite a healthy level. So the positive, of course, there is, well, if the market will start to turn and the tightness of those markets will be a little bit released, then you might see the opposite effect happening. But I actually like better these different revenue streams that go in different directions in certain market circumstances. Maybe to add one thing to it. We deliberately call this segment Mobility. We don't call it automotive because there is, of course, and particularly also in the theme of this conference, I think there's so much going on in mobility and also the link between mobility and tech. So think about what's happening with EVs, autonomous vehicles, at some point, human drones, car rides and so on, car sharing and all of that. So the data around Mobility going forward is going to be really fascinating, and we're definitely planning to move the business also more in that direction and really have that forward-looking perspective also in terms of insights that we can provide to our customers.
Keen Fai Tong
analystYes. That makes sense. So it sounds like the Mobility business should continue to sustain high single-digit growth, just as it had delivered when it was part of IHS Markit.
Ewout Steenbergen
executiveYes. I think we're also very optimistic about that business.
Keen Fai Tong
analystWonderful. Lastly, Engineering Solutions. Historically, that business has grown low single digits. Where do you see synergies between that segment and other parts of S&P?
Ewout Steenbergen
executiveWell, a couple of things. First, we are definitely thinking about a faster growth strategy for that business, and we're developing roughly plans around that. And we think that should be achievable. And then secondly, there are a couple of examples that I can give to you where there are synergies between the firm. So 2 large products of Engineering Solutions are so-called Engineering Workbench and Goldfire. And they are now using the cloud infrastructure that S&P has set up in China in order to sell those products in Mainland China. So that's an example where basically with help of the combined company that could be an acceleration. And the second example is there is a significant overlap in customers between Commodity Insights and Engineering Solutions. Think about some of the large energy companies around the world. So we're seeing also there cross-sell opportunities and leads that are happening between those 2 divisions.
Keen Fai Tong
analystRight. Let's turn the discussion to discuss or to focus on margins. So you trimmed your Ratings operating margins from 60% plus to low to mid-50s. What type of issuance environment would you need to see for Ratings margins to go back to 60% plus?
Ewout Steenbergen
executiveWell, I think again, in terms of the outlook, we will give you more insight on December 1. But directionally, why is there such a large step back in the Ratings margins this year? The main reason is that we're preserving the capacity. We think, again, because this current debt market situation is, in the end, a timing matter, and the refinancing looks healthy for the next few years as we discussed. We don't want to take capacity out. And then at the moment the market comes back, you need to build that back up because we know in the current labor market, it's very hard to find talent. And then you have to train it, and there might be compensation cost impact to it. So we deliberately are keeping the current capacity intact from an analytical perspective. So that is, of course, having an impact. That should also position us well when the markets are coming back that we can pick up that volume and of course the impact that we'll have on the margins going forward. So yes, this is a bigger reset, but that should give us a good base in terms of margins going forward again.
Keen Fai Tong
analystRight. You also lowered your outlook for margins in other areas of the business outside of Ratings in connection with your 2Q print, specifically taking down the margin outlook for Commodity Insights, for Indices, for Market Intelligence, for Mobility, basically every segment except engineering. So -- but you only cut the revenue guide for Commodity Insights and Indices. So what's the thinking there? Why take down the margins? What's going on in those non-Ratings segments?
Ewout Steenbergen
executiveI would say don't read too much into it. I think this is mostly small things that are happening, like Russia impact, like capital markets, like the outlook for the equity markets and the AUM fees in the Index business. What we don't think the offset on the exchange-traded derivative for the second half of this year will be as high as we have seen in the first half. At some point, when there's persistent volatility, probably derivative -- hedging through derivatives, that will come down a little bit. So it is more that fine-tuning. Sometimes you stay within the range on the revenue side, but you just go down on the margin side. Again, these are relatively small movements, and I think that's more math than there's anything big behind.
Keen Fai Tong
analystRight. So S&P is on track to buy back $12 billion in stock this year. What's your latest progress there in hitting that goal? And then what are your longer-term plans for share buybacks beyond 2022? And broadly speaking, what are your overall capital allocation priorities?
Ewout Steenbergen
executiveYes. Well, we think it's a phenomenal opportunity to buy back so much of our own stock this year. And I'm pretty sure in a few years' time from now, everyone will look at it and say, timing couldn't have been better to pay the stock at this point because when we come out of this situation, the company will be in such a better position. We have executed on all our plans. The progress is going well. We take all the economic benefit of the merger. And then the share count has been reduced by so much, much more than we assumed originally in the merger business case. So I think, generally, when the situation in terms of the general economy will improve, the company will look so good at that moment. And I think that's the benefit on continuing to execute on our plan. As you know, we did $8.5 billion of share buyback until the summer, until August. We initiated a new ASR of $2.5 billion, so we're currently at $11 billion. That ASR will end at the beginning of November. So then we have still $1 billion to go until the end of the year. So we're still on track to complete $12 billion in 2022, which, by the way, is close to 10% of our market cap. So in absolute numbers, it's really meaningful. We will take out at the end of the year approximately 1/3 of the shares that were issued to the IHS shareholders. Already 1/3 we will take out again, so just to give you a feel for the magnitude. Going forward, then we will go in our normal course capital return. So our target is at least 85% of free cash flow that we will return to shareholders in the form of dividends and buybacks. The dividend payout ratio is around 20% to 30%, and then the rest we will do in buybacks. So those numbers will continue to be very meaningful, and we think that is continue -- will continue to be a positive in the overall algorithm of S&P Global, driving the top line growth, finding the operational efficiencies, having minimal capital requirements from a regulatory capital and capital expenditures, dropping off a lot of free cash flow, returning a lot of that to shareholders and therefore driving the EPS up in a very healthy way. So I think that algorithm, we will continue with that. And definitely, the capital return commitments and targets we have around that will remain very important.
Keen Fai Tong
analystRight. And other capital allocation priorities, such as M&A or debt paydown?
Ewout Steenbergen
executiveM&A, maybe small tuck-ins, but we don't think about anything big. We need to be focused on the execution, bringing this merger to a success. This is a very large merger, as everyone realizes, a lot of complexity. So we don't want to be distracted with that. If it is small, nice add-ons in, for example, ESG or some other areas, then definitely, we are looking at that, but nothing meaningful. But the most important for us is reinvesting in our own business. We know our own business the best. We know our opportunities the best. We know our management, our technology, what we can accomplish. So investing in organic growth, we always think is the highest in terms of the priority from a capital return perspective.
Keen Fai Tong
analystGreat. Any questions from the audience? No? Let's have a mic runner.
Unknown Analyst
analystEwout, maybe you want to speak, please, about some of the ESG initiatives, the progress you're making there in this very aware environment?
Ewout Steenbergen
executiveWe continue to execute on our ESG plans. As you know, this is really some of the connective tissue we have within the company because we have sustainability initiatives and products across the whole board, from Ratings to Market Intelligence, to Commodity Insights, to the Mobility business, think about what is happening with EVs, EV metals and so on, to Engineering Solutions. So we have really a proposition across the board. And we see a lot of continued commercial momentum around it. The expectation still stays at approximately $210 million of revenues this year from $140 million last year. So that's about 50% growth. The CAGR that we put out for the next few years is somewhere mid-40s. We're running today a little bit higher if you have seen the actuals over the last 2 quarters, and then we should be around $600 million by 2025. So we actually see in the day-to-day that a lot of our customers continue to be very interested in this, would like to get more insight and analytics, prices and so on, would like to have the help from an energy transition perspective, need help when they develop net-zero plans, need help when they do a sustainability reporting for TCFD and some of the other platforms. So continues to be a very active business for us. And it's nice to see that the growth is really in line with what we had projected some time ago. Thank you.
Keen Fai Tong
analystWell, that wraps up our session. Please join me in thanking Ewout for his time and insights.
Ewout Steenbergen
executiveThank you, George.
Keen Fai Tong
analystThank you.
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