Sanofi (SAN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

January 11, 2022

Euronext Paris FR Health Care Pharmaceuticals conference_presentation 41 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Richard Vosser

analyst
#1

[Audio Gap] Health Care Conference. I'm Richard Vosser, European pharma analyst at JPMorgan. It's my great pleasure to introduce from Sanofi, the CEO, Paul Hudson. [Operator Instructions] With that, Paul, welcome to the conference. Good to see you

Paul Hudson

executive
#2

Thanks, Richard. Thank you very much. Delighted to be here. Sadly, virtually, but very happy to share the progress we're making as a company and going to get into the detail. JB, Jean-Baptiste, and I will take you through the upfront and the business and finance, of course. And then we'll be joined by other members of the executive team for the Q&A. So maybe we go to the next slide. So for me, at least, it's just over two years since we had a Capital Markets Day 2019. It's pretty staggering, the progress we've made. If you'd have asked me whether I thought we'd have made this much progress two years later, I would have said, "I hope so, but I'm not sure because we don't know what we have in front of us." And despite the pandemic and everything else, it's really been quite incredible how the team has switched on to the strategy, the progress that's being made and literally how we're delivering and overachieving across almost every single one of the parameters. So let's look just quickly at some of the growth drivers. Dupixent, as we predict, will be a EUR 10-plus billion asset, a little bit further out, annualizing at EUR 6 billion just in Q3 alone. So really incredible progress. If we look at our vaccine business and in particular in flu, here we are again with a record flu season. So that gives me particular pleasure, is that Consumer Health performance. Julie leading, sort of, almost a turnaround in Consumer Health, back to closing the gap on industry growth and [ wield ] everyday decisions that are being made, that are really changing the way we're operating in Consumer. As for the pipeline, well, we had 7 readouts in 2021, not least with [indiscernible], nirsevimab, with Dupixent, pretty extraordinary progress again. And of course, not content just with that. We elevated the value of our pipeline. We continue to drive on, in terms of 7 M&A deals. I'll talk about those a little while later. But importantly and fundamentally, we doubled down in oncology and immunology. We added tremendous value. If we look at the -- evaluate as a measure or a benchmark, we moved up to #5 in overall portfolio value and doubled the actual pipeline. In terms of reallocating savings, we've done all these things, and we've done them by reallocating saving, redeploying resource, making sure that, that EUR 1.5 billion that we've doubled down in 2021, went against areas of growth and value creation. We've been doing really smart work to make sure we get these things done. I will mention, we have the EUROAPI IPO to create the second biggest player in the world in API, in the early part of this year. And that's another proof point of how well this company executes. I think, while the transformation is underway, the day-to-day ability to execute is really staggering. Then just moving quickly to culture. I'm very proud, of course, of the progress we're making. We're #1 in terms of culture and place to work and some measures. Great. But we're doing it not by putting posters up by the elevator, we're doing it because we're doing incredible work, changing policies and procedures and a highly-inclusive and gender-neutral paternity leave policy, just to try the level the playing field and take away some of these legacy issues that everybody faces [ over ] place, but it won't be us, going forward. Let's get to the next slide. So Dupixent, I've said before, it's an absolute pleasure to be involved with this medicine. It's truly incredible. I think this is one of those examples, where the first and best medicine launch will end up being the very best of all. It's staggering the safety profile. We continue to accumulate really wonderful efficacy data and clinical data. There was a true breakthrough, particularly in type 2-driven diseases. It's interesting when you look at the news flow, even just from the second half of 2021, we've gone earlier into children, in asthma and atopic dermatitis. We've expanded the geographies by going into China. We'll update you on how well we're doing in China, when we get to our full year results. But we're really shaping this medicine across the full spectrum of diseases. And there's even more excitement to come in 2022. When you look at getting to submission on , submission on CSU, submission on eosinophilic esophagitis, we're really broadening ourselves out. We know we'll owe you at some point this year, a revisit to how big we think this medicine can be. What's also interesting and doesn't get talked about a great deal, is since we declared the EUR 10 billion-plus objective, it's become clear that the competitor set has actually got weakened, not strengthened, whether it's the JAK inhibitors and the safety profile or whether we go more broadly and look at the fact that while we may have some emerging competition, no single competitor can take us on in all of these indications. In fact, many of them have already failed in one or more of these indications. So really exciting time ahead for us, not least with all this going on 2023, we'll mark our moment of Dupixent in COPD. And we hope the data reads out positive because that is another major moment for us, to Dupixent and to the patients that we serve. Next slide, please. One of the things I find really fascinating, is that we are ready to declare that, I think, we will be an industry-leading immunology company. I think we have the chance to reset what actually happens in autoimmunity and immunology, in general. I think, when you look at what Dupixent has done and how it entered into areas, where there was really no biologic to deal with these populations, whether it was AD, whether it's [indiscernible], whether it goes on to be eosinophilic esophagitis in GI, we're really just setting a new bar for patients and for what's achievable. But it doesn't stop there. I think it's a brilliant foundation for us to be able to say, "okay, so what comes next?" We'll have . And I can tell you the . Clearly, the emerging profile of the OX40s that don't target the ligand, is going to be more challenging for them, on tolerability. But for us, again, first and best-in-class, tackling at first AD, we have a real chance to pull forward our submission. Now, whilst you're not aware what we had in our internal planning, we believe it will be possible to file by the end of 2024, and that's new news really today, but that is where we think we can be, and where we need to be. For tolebrutinib, we'll have data ACTRIMS at the end of February, which we hope we'll be able to share with you, while we're so confident that in MS, we have the winning profile with tolebrutinib. And what does that mean, in terms of clinically meaningful or bioactive brain penetration. These are going to be the major things ahead of us. And don't forget, we'll have Phase IIIs on tolebrutinib, just next year. Rilzabrutinib enter Phase II in AD, asthma and CSU, itepekimab, the IL-33 in COPD and a [ rap-4 ] degrader, which could go forward in AD, and [indiscernible]. So you think about the wealth of assets we'll bring forward. It's a really exciting time for us. a small but important thing is what we're doing with the Nanobodies and the Ablynx work that we did -- that was done before my time. Just look at the opportunities that we have. We have the IL-13 OX40-Ligand combination. We have IL-13 TSLP. We have the anti-TNF ligand and the anti-TNF IL-23. And all of these -- remember, most of these mechanisms are already proven. These are Nanobodies. They have the chance to deliver even improved efficacy. And they're coming fast. We've seen the recent data on [ 23 ] in TNF, in ulcerative colitis, we really think we can change the game, and we're in the clinic. Next slide, please. So when we look at Vaccines, clearly, it's been an interesting year for us. When I joined the company, I thought it would be less news flow than it turned out to be. I'm really impressed with how everybody stepped up in our Vaccine business. And I think we are the industry leader in flu and approve them with the differentiated portfolio. We declared a Capital Markets Day 2019 that we would have high mid-single digit growth through 2025 on the CAGR. And I think that's proven to be the case, more to update at full year. But we also said on December 1 on Capital Markets Day for Vaccines that we really believed, that would double the business by 2030. And we're even more confident about that. Our strong performance, of course, will be needed in pediatric vaccines and meningitis. And let's not forget, launch in 2023, just next year of nirsevimab, first for all infant protection in RSV, another major moment for us. We'll go on. We've doubled down to create the mRNA center of excellence. We know where we stand. We know what we're doing. We're very confident that we've closed the gap in record time, and our people are fired up about what that means. If you think about how we've stepped forward and how we've closed the gap in mRNA flu, we don't know whether mRNA will play a part in the future in these vaccine areas. But we know we'll be there and competing, which is very exciting for us. We told you what we thought about first and second and third-generation mRNA. And we did that on December 1. And just a few days later, it was proven to be the case. You saw some of the challenges [ of ] competition face with their own early data in flu, not quite making it, even to our standard dose. So we're in good shape. We're happy where we are in vaccines. Let's take the next slide, please. Out of all the work that we've done as an executive team over the past couple of years, our commitment to CSR into the ESG effort, has been the most challenging because we set ourselves an even more ambitious goal, which was what can we do that nobody else can do. What happens is if we don't do it, nobody does it. And so we decided that we would double down in areas that were absolutely essential. While carbon, for example, the environment is critically important. We also had to go beyond that and say, "what are the most important things for us to make sure we get done?" The creation of the Global Health unit, the 30 most essential medicines for the 40 [ poorest ] countries and what that means. And medicines that we make, that the WHO thinks are important, we do too, and we want to make sure we get them to those that need them. Continuing our work in unmet need in rare diseases and in fact, whether it's sleeping sickness or beyond. If we don't do that work, it will not happen. So we're going to do that work. It's not about business case, it's about solving problems for society. And I think our contract with society, has never been more important than it is today. It's expected of us by society, of course, but by everybody that works in our company and is connected to it. They know that only we can fix it, we must fix it. If I move just to the right of the slide, I mentioned earlier, we were ranked the #1 pharma company, in terms of employees, best place to work, if you like, a best employer, by the Fortune -- sorry, the Forbes survey. But let's reflect on that for a moment. That's great and that's a lot of progress, but what does it actually mean? Well, we hope it's because our people are filling much closer to the purpose and what we're trying to do. But a good measure for that would be the type of culture we're creating. If you look at the data in the middle, you'll see of the acquisitions that we've made. You see the retention rates of those that we thought were critically important, post acquisition, who we thought and we told, "Come join us. You can continue to deliver the excellent science." We believe we're a great culture. We believe we're a work-in-progress, but we are improving all the time. So come and help us improve. If you look at the retention rates, they sort of tell you that when we've got into an M&A situation, people are very excited about what they find here and what that feels like to work here. And I think we're starting to see a convergence of all of the effort, purpose-led, first-in-class, best-in-class science, the use of data and digital, JB will talk about a little bit. But also importantly, it's just a great place to work, not done, but certainly making progress. Let's go to the next slide. So looking at the M&A, we did 7 deals, as you know, in 2021. We were delighted that they were focused around the critical areas from vaccines, oncology, immunology. This is really important work for us. We've tried to be very disciplined about how we show up and where we want to deploy our capital. And the choices we make to make sure that we can get it done. They strengthen our long-term pipeline. They strengthen our commitment to science, and they do strengthen our commitment, especially to oncology, particularly, more recently. Whilst the recent movement in [ Amunix ] has been promising in terms of the T-cell engager opportunity and the cytokine therapy opportunity. We are going to be one of the leading companies to have biologic -- the majority of our assets is biologics, going into our pipeline of the future. So when we look at things like conditionally-activated biologics, we're saying to ourselves, "how can we take this to the next level? What does it look like in the future? How can we converge that with what we're doing in oncology? And why is that important?" We will deliver medicines tailored to become active in tumor tissues, while sparing normal tissues. This is the type of work that we should be involved in, first-in-class, best-in-class, in this great company. Next slide, please. So as I come to the end, I think it's also worth mentioning something very important about how quickly the data and digital revolution is upon us, right across the company and all things, but also importantly, in drug discovery and development. For me, this is a real statement, our recent announcement of collaboration with Axantia and with [ Oken ]. What we've said is, we understand we need to continue to accelerate the performance of our pipeline. We need to make sure, with [ Oken's ] help, that we are laser guided and much stronger on how we execute in breast, lung and multiple myeloma and how we make -- get the very best out of those programs. And with Axantia, we recognize that on an end-to-end drug design and discovery, is going to be critically important. We're jumping all in to make sure that we take advantage, which gives us the opportunity to make sure that we really deliver more or more efficiently or more where nothing has been delivered before. So when I look back, I'm very proud of the progress that we've made in -- since the Capital Markets Day in 2019, I think it's frankly staggering, the journey that we've been on. I think the energy is high, despite the pandemic. And we are really changing the culture, how we prioritize, how we digitize and what it means to be collaborators, if you want to partner with us or what it means to create long-term value because of a first-in-class, best-in-class pipeline. So I'm very thrilled with that. With that. I may say to Jean-Baptiste, maybe you could pick up and then we'll hand over to the Q&A.

Jean-Baptiste de Chatillon

executive
#3

Thank you, Paul. Thank you very much. Moving to Slide 11. You can see on the left-hand side of the slide that we are on track to achieve our midterm margin targets. Of course, with Dupixent, which is expected to be accretive to group in 2022 and going forward. Also thanks to our API business that we want to IPO in H1 2022. You remember, our API business, as we had committed in 2019, to carve out and put on the market. Name is [indiscernible]. This will be slightly accretive to our BOI margin. During the same period of time in '21, and we will fully deliver in '22, we are shifting all the savings, EUR 2.5 billion, that we are saving in our OpEx, but also in our COGS, we are using it to invest behind our growth drivers in Specialty Care, Vaccine and, of course, R&D. On the right-hand side of the slide, you see our EPS growth. Of course, it is driven by a shift in business mix and efficiencies. But also, it is driven by our top line growth. Just think of our Q3 top line growth, it was double digits. Moving to Slide 12. I would like to share with you a bit of our digital transformation. It's a deep digital transformation, under the leadership of [ Arnaud Robert ], with the full engagement of the executive team. The transformation is deep and company-wide. You can see that we address legacy topics by building strong foundations like global CRM, supply chain, global data platform. It's a catch-up, but it's a fast one. Then value creation, we are really reinventing our customer engagement models in our GBUs. Omnichannel hybrid reps, but not only, we're also delivering HCP experiences and patient experiences, which are transformed by some of our applications. Last but not least, new ways of working. We are really changing the culture there with data democratization and artificial intelligence. Let's imagine a sales manager, a franchise head, a country head and [indiscernible] member. We all share online, real-time, the same single source of truth. This is a huge simplification on a huge way to change the culture. If you add artificial intelligence, which is powering our forecasting, then you really understand that we, in Sanofi, are really being a very agile team, when it's time to make decisions. And this is really a game changer for us. On Slide 13, and that will be my conclusion. On our 6-year plan, you remember, we committed on a 6-year plan. We are getting to the first big milestone of the 2020-2022 period. The strategy, the choices we did, allowed for decisions we were clear, decisive choices in R&D, but also in our business. We really brought clarity to what we want to execute, and it's happening strongly. If you look since December '19, to the long list of commitments we took at the time, we have delivered on all of them, and we are delivering as a team, quarter after quarter, and we aim to go on doing this relentlessly. We have a clear trajectory to deliver on our midterm financial targets, on our future pipeline execution. With that, I hand back to Richard.

Richard Vosser

analyst
#4

Thanks very much Jean-Baptiste. So I already have a question from the portal, which is asking if you could provide an update on the recombinant, adjuvanted COVID vaccine being done with [ Glaxo ] and where you are with that?

Paul Hudson

executive
#5

Okay. Well, then thank you, Richard. Thomas, maybe I'll hand briefly to you. Can you hear me okay?

Unknown Executive

executive
#6

I can. Can you hear me okay?

Paul Hudson

executive
#7

Perfect.

Unknown Executive

executive
#8

So Richard, as we mentioned in our December press release, we are expecting -- in December, just to recap for everything -- everybody, sorry, we've seen a good interim booster data. We'll get very soon the final booster data, which I expect to be also good, and we expect the efficacy Phase III readout in Q1. It's a matter of a number of cases because Phase III efficacy is a matter of how many people get the disease versus others not getting the disease in the group. We don't control the disease. It's a question of . It depends on , but it would be in Q1.

Richard Vosser

analyst
#9

Maybe I can add a question. When you're having your conversations with governments, are they putting any pressure? Are they talking about where the separate flu and COVID vaccines could lead to lower uptake of both vaccines? I think we've seen some pressures in the U.S. market this year about COVID administration, do they talk about that? And I suppose the next question is, there is not-so-good reactogenicity with mRNA flu at this point. But if you put them together, does that sort of mask it with COVID, does that make it a better situation? Yes, thoughts there.

Unknown Executive

executive
#10

So we definitely don't have such comments from Mr. Rafale or other decisioners. They all know very well where flu mRNA programs are, and they are all very convinced by the compelling case we've done on December 1, on the fact that mRNA pandemic generation is doomed to fail in flu. Flu is not COVID-19. So you're really the second mRNA generation to have a chance to win in flu, and that's not happening in '22 or '23. So no, our case has not changed at all on combination and definitely never heard such a thing from any MOH around the world. And for the short term, of course, we need to adjust -- you alluded to it, in Q4 of this year, we've seen a lower uptake of flu in the U.S., again, very specific in the U.S., mostly due to the fact that retailers were overly taken by the volume and had to make a decision between "do I go in the system for COVID-19 vaccination or do I go in the [ stem ]", which is different, one, for a normal vaccination for flu. But of course, retailers can very well adjust for next year and we're not concerned at all.

Richard Vosser

analyst
#11

I promise you won't give vaccines the entire time, but we do have a follow-up question on whether your would have efficacy versus Omicron, from an investor?

Unknown Executive

executive
#12

So we don't know yet because I'm waiting for the efficacy data, as you've heard. And we look at, of course, at . But if you look at the timing of enrollment, which was more Delta than Omicron, I doubt we get much. We might have some of the last cases, but I don't think it will be significant, in terms of numbers. But importantly, you know that we have Stage 1, which is the efficacy trial we're talking, but there's also a Stage 2, where we have a bivalent, which is 1 plus [ beta ] formulation that is recruiting, and that will be in the middle of Omicron. So at that time, so a couple of months or 3 months later on, there might be some interesting data linked to Omicron, in what shape and form, still needs to be seen, but it's not the top priority. Let's first get the Q1 data first.

Richard Vosser

analyst
#13

Paul, you mentioned nirsevimab as a key product, and the data looks very, very good. I mean, could you comment on sort of the early feedback you've had from payers, governments, et cetera, around the product? And you've talked about premium pricing -- as a premium price vaccine course for the treatment in it. What are the -- what are people saying, who are going to actually use it and administer?

Paul Hudson

executive
#14

I'll let Tom comment in a moment, but just some headlines. I mean, everybody was spoken to about nirsevimab has been absolutely, unanimously positive, about the opportunity for all infant protection. There's just simply no doubt. The -- without any treatments, of course, you would consider maternal vaccines and other things. But now, with the treatment you can give in season, that is most importantly and protect all infants, then I think this has changed the game for everybody. This will be the new standard of care. There really will not be a huge need for any alternatives. As you know, we've said before, we priced it more like a premium vaccine because it matters to us greatly that there was as much access as possible to protect as many infants as possible. So that was our first and foremost thought. Tom, do you want to add anything?

Unknown Executive

executive
#15

Feedback has been very good, so far, on medical societies, regulators, payers. Interestingly, I think the Phase III data are so good, but some are still not exactly hearing what Paul just said. Some might be wondering, "okay, maybe it's going to be a bit too highly priced and more like a synergisting and not premium-priced innovative vaccine", which is, in my view, a testimony of the fact that we see the Phase III data is extremely convincing, and we're going full-speed launch in 2023, submission of the files in [ 2022 ].

Richard Vosser

analyst
#16

Excellent. I have a question -- another question from investor on the -- any color or timing on the SERD data for breast cancer?

Paul Hudson

executive
#17

So I'll throw it to John, but we've committed to have the data in quarter 1. And that is a definitive commitment. John, do you want to disagree with that?

Unknown Executive

executive
#18

As you know, this has been an event-driven study, and perhaps it's a good sign. It's been taking a while to accumulate those events. We're very close now. We're quite confident, therefore, that we'll have the data in the first quarter of this year. And we remain very bullish about the molecule. It's having a best-in-class tolerability profile, combined with an industry-competitive efficacy profile. So we're eagerly awaiting the data like everyone else, and we'll look forward to sharing later this quarter.

Richard Vosser

analyst
#19

Excellent. Another investor is just asking for your thoughts on -- their comment is the confidence in SERD, given the Radius data, but maybe I can just broaden that out a bit. We've seen the Radius data. We've seen the benefit. If we think about that data is -- is that the sort of thing we should be thinking about? Is that enough for commercial versus fulvestrant? How are you thinking about that Radius data, I suppose?

Unknown Executive

executive
#20

Right. Right. Yes. So the Radius data, I guess, on the encouraging side, did show that a SERD can have a benefit for patients in this second, third line setting, where they've already seen a CDK4/6 inhibitor and have already failed frontline hormonal therapy. And so I think that's encouraging. The magnitude of the effect was with the Radius molecule, was not as inspiring as I think what people wanted. Generally, KOLs have said you need to see at least preferably 2 months of progression-free survival benefit, beyond standard of care. With that as context, though, [indiscernible] is a higher-quality server than the Radius molecule. It has pharmacology and efficacy that allows us to have excellent target engagement and degradation, both wild type and mutant. It has no mixed agonism, antagonism sorts of activities, completely pure antagonist as well and has a best-in-class tolerability profile. So altogether, we believe we should prevail in this setting, and the Radius data, I think, helped further bolster our confidence that a SERD can be affected in this setting. And we hope to show that we can push out that progression through 3 survival more than 2 months and something north of that. So we'll wait for the data.

Paul Hudson

executive
#21

And Richard, maybe I can add, and we are clearly more confident since that data. And we think we have a better profile. And again, we talk a lot about AMEERA-3, which is really the moment to start establishing our profile, but the AMEERA-5 is fully recruited, and there AMEERA-6 up and running, if I remember, we've got -- we're right -- we're going right across the spectrum, and this is reflective of how assertive we are, if we think we are first and best. So while other companies are struggling to pick a dose, or struggling with cardiotox or struggling to go earlier line, we really have a moment to not wait, but if the data is strong to go after complete -- being first and best and sustainably that. So it's an exciting time for us.

Richard Vosser

analyst
#22

Excellent. Another investors are asking about another cancer product, your antibody drug conjugate, the CCAM5,I think. Just any update there on when we could, I suppose -- maybe I'll broaden it. Their question is, any update -- or tighten it -- timing? Should we see something this year? How should we think about that product?

Unknown Executive

executive
#23

Right. So the most of the study, the Phase III in second-line lung cancer, will read out next year. And that is a randomized study, comparing Taxotere to this targeted molecule. This year, we're continuing enrollment of a number of Phase II studies in other indications, other lines of therapy. So in lung, for example, continuing with that, we're doing a frontline and combo with a PD-1 to get data there. And then, we're also doing combo with [ ramucizumab ], the VEGF receptor inhibitor, which is often used in the second-line setting in combo with Taxotere. And we're doing -- generate data there. And then, similarly in other indications, gastric cancer, both as monotherapy, in combination with [ remucizumab ]. We're gathering data there, this year. Those studies have been under while, for a while, but they'll have some readouts later this year, hopefully. And we're gathering single-seeking data in other indications like breast cancer. So be -- more signal-seeking studies this year that help clarify what other combinations might make sense, what other indications might make sense. And then definitive -- first -- the first definitive pivotal data, next year, in that second-line lung setting.

Paul Hudson

executive
#24

And I think, John, I'm right on saying that's the only CCAM5?

Unknown Executive

executive
#25

That's correct. Yes. It's the only one. And it's a considerable portion of the [ non-cell ] lung cancer population, roughly 20% or so. So as -- in proportions of those patient populations go, it's quite significant.

Richard Vosser

analyst
#26

Excellent. I do want to get to Dupixent. But an investor is asking about your capital allocation priorities in M&A. So that's the general question. But I mean -- maybe I'll add to it. We've seen small bolt-ons that have added technology and products over the last couple of years, more of the same? Or how should we think about it?

Paul Hudson

executive
#27

JB, do you want to answer that?

Jean-Baptiste de Chatillon

executive
#28

Yes. Yes. Thank you, Richard, for this question. We clearly, want to go on building on our strengths. We have good examples of what we want to go on delivering. If you take our Immunology franchise, by building slowly, but with the strength of a strong team, on the back of Dupixent now having several of the bend mechanism of action, we are really feeling that we can build the strongest franchise in immunology, among big pharmas. So this type of path, we really want to go on delivering on it. We have this saving on -- cost-saving plan, which will allow us to make room. And each time we make enough room, we go on to add science and value to our pipeline.

Richard Vosser

analyst
#29

Excellent. Maybe Dupixent, Paul, you touched on the -- greater than sales -- but greater than EUR 6 billion in sales at Q3. I mean, maybe -- just generally, if you could give us an update on the uptake in atopic derm, [ Aspa ]? Any update on the COVID pressure, which has dampened -- it hasn't done for the sales, but it has dampened doctor visit. So once that's out of the way, should we expect an acceleration? How should we think about this in the areas you are in, so far?

Paul Hudson

executive
#30

Well, then I would say annualizing . But it's Bill's work. So maybe Bill wants to share his enthusiasm for where we're at.

William Sibold

executive
#31

Look, it's -- as Paul said, this is really a remarkable opportunity. And the pandemic, clearly, has an impact, in the sense that what else could it have done, when you've got patients that can [ get ] the offices, you got offices closed, et cetera. So it's actually really remarkable, shows how great a product it is to be showing 50-plus percent growth in a quarter that despite some of those hurdles, people are getting in and physicians are writing. Just the perspective of where we are. Think about atopic dermatitis penetration, right now, of biologics, which is Dupixent at this point, is only about 7%. And we think that's going to get up into the mid-20s, 25% or so or a little more. So you're talking about being kind of a quarter of a way into what that potential is. And we expect that biologics penetration is going to be higher in asthma, probably closer to that 40%. And right now, you're at about 18%. So you're halfway through that journey or less. So we are still, I'd like to say, at the very beginning of this journey, and that's before even looking at all of the new indications that we're putting in and the broader age groups and geographies. So you heard me say it in the last quarter, this is a rocket ship. We still believe that. We're excited about it.

Richard Vosser

analyst
#32

Perfect. There are a couple of follow-ups from investors. So I'll take it in turn. One is a very precise question, asking whether -- what would be in the [ Numera ] 3 press release, would you give the PFS delta? Do what you can with that.

Paul Hudson

executive
#33

Oh, you want me to answer that? Asking for a friend, Richard, anonymous investor. You have to wait and see. We just data, okay?

Richard Vosser

analyst
#34

That's fine. Second follow-up question is just on the area of -- back to vaccines, actually, and it was our RSV vaccines, and the investors are asking about the appetite for older, adult vaccines with your mRNA platform. I think, they mean the mRNA platform.

Paul Hudson

executive
#35

Tom, you want to go?

Unknown Executive

executive
#36

Yes. No, we are super interested about RSV in general, and we want to be the leading RSV-prevention company in the future. That's why we've declared 3 assets. You know everything about nirsevimab, 3 Phase II, Phase III, moving forward. You know that we have an RSV toddler vaccine that could go from 1 to 5 years of age folks, with Phase II readout in 2022. And indeed, we talked about the RSV Elderly program, where we are very interested by the mRNA platform because here. It gives you the flexibility in the future to combine it with other respiratory agents, for example, hMPV or PIV, which stand-alone, maybe, will not reach the cost-efficient frontier for the vaccine, but piggybacking on a strong RSV backbone, would be very interesting to protect elderly folks. Whereas the competition there on a protein platform for RSV Elderly, then they're going to be stuck with Elderly, we'll have difficulty to add some additional modalities to this RSV [indiscernible]. So excited a lot about that.

Richard Vosser

analyst
#37

Maybe in the last couple of minutes. One final question for me. And it's just consumer health. I mean we -- Paul, you referenced a very strong turnaround that Julie -- and maybe post-pandemic has helped as well. But -- so a very strong business. We're going to see a couple of spinouts this year, maybe with GSK and J&J. Just your thoughts on how well that business is doing within Sanofi and how the carve-out, carve-in is progressing, sorry, carve-in, and thoughts on the business and when we could hear an update on it?

Paul Hudson

executive
#38

Yes. So first of all, we're thrilled with what has been a great leadership in the business, simplifying, reducing the sort of -- some of the breadth of the portfolio to increase efficiency, doubling down in e-commerce. We're doing all the things that perhaps were a bit overdue. Now, I said I think upfront that we're a little bit suffocated by being part of a big pharma company, so that's why we carved in. We said it in '19, and we predicted that we've carved it in to accelerate and make it more agile. So exactly what's happened, right? So exactly, what has happened. Now, we want to close the gap, sustainably, versus market and then get ahead of the market. And don't forget, we have the two switches ahead of us. And as we get through further conversations with the regulators, we'll start to try and dimensionalize those switches for you, so that you can really get a flavor for why we think they are big events in the future of our consumer business. Now, I'm aware of what goes on in other places. We constantly look at all of the scenarios, as you would expect, as a management team. But we think, right now, this is absolutely the right place for it to be. And we work hard to make sure that we get growing ahead of the market and that we get some full understanding of what's ahead of us for the switches. The carve-in, of course, is a great piece of work because as a management team, we increased the performance by increasing agility, but it also is work we don't have to do later. And so it's very important that everybody understands that right now, it's good where it sits.

Richard Vosser

analyst
#39

Excellent. That's a great place to finish. We're out of time. So thanks very much, Paul, Jean-Baptiste, everyone. Great presentation, great discussion, and I hope everyone has a good day at the conference.

Paul Hudson

executive
#40

Thank you. Thanks, Richard. Thank you, everybody. Thank you very much.

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