Sanoma Oyj (SANOMA) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
February 7, 2024
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Kaisa Uurasmaa
executiveGood morning all, and welcome to Sanoma's Full-Year Results 2023 Presentation. My name is Kaisa Uurasmaa. I'm heading Investor Relations and Sustainability at Sanoma, and it's my pleasure to welcome you all here. In '23, our net sales grew and operational EBIT was driven by strong performance in Learning. And today, we have the President and CEO, Rob Kolkman, and CFO, Alex Green, who will tell you more about this. After their presentation, we will have a Q&A session, and we will first take questions from the audience here at Sanoma House. Please use the microphone. After that, we will hand over to the telephone line. And as a third option, you can also use the chat function in the webcast platform. The whole event, including the Q&A, is recorded and the recording will be available on our website shortly after this event. With this, warmly welcome, and I will invite Rob to start the presentation, please.
R. B. Kolkman
executiveThank you very much, Kaisa, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining today in person as well. Great to see you all. What I would like to do today is give you for the first time, and that's my pleasure, the overall results of Sanoma for 2023. And as Kaisa already highlighted, I think the -- this is really driven by the net sales growth that we have seen in learning, the really strong performance there. Let me just pick a couple of the core items of it. So, we ended the year at EUR 1.39 billion in revenue. That was that, as expected, about 2% organic growth, and we ended the operational EBIT for the year at the higher end of our updated guidance at about EUR 175 million. Also particularly pleased to see how the cash flow developed for us for the full year, ending up at EUR 105 million, taking us also for our net debt over adjusted EBITDA to the 2.8, which is below our long-term target of 3. If you look at overall, the picture for the year, then the growth was really driven by Learning, the 17% growth that you see here. Organically, the 6%, but also, of course, the Italian acquisition now being included for the full year. The operational EBIT was driven by Learning, but was more than offset by the impact of the lower advertising sales that we saw in Media Finland and also the cost inflation. There's no change there compared to what we already indicated in the Capital Markets Day in quarter 3, but that's very much the trend we've seen for the full year. I think it's good to mention on the cash flow that 2022 had that one-off positive impact of the Italian acquisition to do with the working capital. So, if you compare really like-for-like, we've seen a strong improvement in the cash flow overall for the business. And as I mentioned, the leverage improved to the 2.8. A core element going forward is around Project Solar. And in Learning, we are firmly on track to reach the targets there and to also achieve the 23% in 2026. And I'll talk a little bit more about that also to show you how we are reporting on that and updating you on that on a quarterly basis. Everything considered, and also firmly taking into consideration the dividend policy, the Board proposes a dividend of EUR 0.37 per share, which is unchanged over last year and corresponds to about 58% of our underlying free cash flow, which is within that 40% to 60% that we indicate in our dividend policy. I will come back to the outlook in more detail, but the core elements are that we expect our revenue to be between EUR 1.29 billion and EUR 1.34 billion and also the Group's operational EBIT, excluding PPA, in the range of EUR 160 million to EUR 180 million. Let me first zoom in on Learning a bit, and it is very much building on what you've heard us say throughout the year and also in the Capital Markets Day. So overall, that strong net sales growth of 17%. If you break that down further, we actually saw the 6% organic growth, and within that 8% growth on the learning content side. So that's really the core driving factor here. Spain very much continues to be the driving force there with 18% growth. That was really the final phase of the new curriculum, the LOMLOE, but also we saw good growth in Poland for the year, driven by minor curriculum changes, but also some good digital sales that we saw there throughout quarter 4. The Netherlands continues to be the story of 2 different parts, which is continued strong growth in the learning content sales, but that is more than offset by the changes we are making on the distribution side in that business. And that's very much the discontinuation of those low-value distribution contracts we talked about as well before. That very much continued in '23 and I will touch on it later for '24 as well. The other thing I'm pleased to report is that the implementation of the price increases, the above average price increases, we can now, with the full-year behind us say that, that was a successful implementation across our markets. You might recall that in the quarter 3, we highlighted that with regard to particularly countries like Italy and Spain, you always have in quarter 4 some more returns still to come. And those returns ended up in line with or actually even slightly better than what we forecasted at the time, also contributing to that good growth. And as a reminder, the Italian business contributes now EUR 105 million in sales, obviously, now for the full year compared to the EUR 31 million in '22. So all that links directly to what you see here on the earnings growth, which I would qualify as a solid earnings improvement. So clearly, the growth in the revenue, particularly in Spain and Poland, drives the improvement in the profitability. But overall as well, we have seen strong organic growth on the back of that successful implementation of the price increases as well. And as a reminder, the Italian business had now that solid contribution, be it at a lower profitability level than the other learning content businesses because it's more focused on secondary education. And maybe as a reminder, if you look at the margins, we are now back to proper full year comparison compared to 2022. And the reason was that in '22, we saw a lot of sales being phased, delayed effectively from quarter 3 to quarter 4 to do with Spain and also to do with the distribution in the Netherlands being somewhat delayed. That is now no longer the case. It's more normalized pattern that you see in '23 and we also expect that to continue going forward. So that's with regard to the results. If you then look at Solar, and we, of course, spent a lot of time in the Capital Markets Day going through the core components. And as a reminder, I've put them on the left-hand side here, the 4 key areas; the organizational optimization on the back of the post curriculum renewal optimizations in Spain and Poland, but also across the other businesses, the publishing process improvements and very much also the harmonizing of our digital platforms, and particularly that move to Poland and Spain of our development capacity, and then quite a lot of other optimizations as well. So what we've tried to do on the right-hand side is to give a feel for where we are when you think about our run rate of savings. So, the decisions we have taken to get to the EUR 55 million operational EBIT improvement in 2026. And as you can see here, that line is not a smooth line because it really is -- a lot of it happening in '24 over a certain period of time. So decisions taken in quarter 1, quarter 2, and of course, also very much in quarter 3. So we'll keep you updated on that throughout the year. And for now, the core message there is that we have a solid good start on Project Solar-- Program Solar and we're about at that 30% of run rate savings, if you were to see what the impact is in 2026. So, that's with regard to Learning. Let's now go to the Media side. There, the trends that we've seen throughout the year have really continued, which is the advertising sales declining by about 7%, mainly due to newsprint and TV, which was in line with the declines we saw there in the market. And we also saw that the digital advertising sales continued to grow. If you look at -- logically speaking, then the share of the print advertising also decreased to 8%. If you look at the subscriptions, they grew slightly overall, which has partly to do with successful implementation of price increases and also we saw a minor small increase in the subscription base overall. And if you look at the digital subscriptions, as it highlights here, the overall digital subscriptions went up with 16% year-on-year, specifically also driven by Ruutu+, which was a strong performer there. And the other sales, as it highlights here, were overall stable, and of course, particularly on the Events and festival business that already happened much earlier in the year. All this, of course, had the impact on the lower earnings that we have been highlighting throughout the year. So that, for us, ended in line with the expectations, and the majority of that was to do with the lower advertising sales. And we also saw the personnel cost increase in line with expectations due to the salary inflation and also the bonus provisions being normalized. All that partly mitigated by the ongoing cost containment actions and also slightly lower paper printing and the distribution cost. So, with all that considered, the Board proposes a dividend of EUR 0.37 per share, as I mentioned, unchanged and very much in line with the payout between 40% and 60% of our free cash flow. And you can see here how that is split over the 3 payments, which is again the same as we did in this year. Let me then move to 2024. And first of all, paint a bit the picture on how we look at 2024 and the key factors influencing that, which you can see here, split again in Learning and Media Finland. So on the Learning side, we expect the comparable net sales to be impacted by 2 key things, which is the lower cycle in Spain, very much in line with what we show you on the sort of expectation chart around curriculum changes. This will now go from that height to a significantly lower point, but that will be mostly mitigated and compensated by the continuing good growth in the other learning content businesses. And we will continue, at the same time, with stopping the low-value distribution contracts in the Netherlands. So that process of trying to really make the necessary changes in that market on the distribution side, we will continue to do. And also good to mention on learning, the smaller divestment of the German exam preparation business that we announced in January is now factored into these numbers and these guidance. So that overall results in the lower reported net sales expectation and a relatively stable margin, which you might have seen in the full year results is slightly higher for '23 than we indicated at the Capital Markets Day. If you then look at Media Finland, there, we expect the comparable net sales to be relatively stable, which for us, is in line with how we now currently look at the Finnish economy, also expecting it to perform relatively stable, which is, of course, one of the key, let's say, uncertainties that we see when you look at 2024, is the view, particularly on the advertising sales for the second half of '24 is a bigger unknown there. We expect the subscriptions to continue to grow modestly, driven by digital, so very much the continuation of the trends we have seen, driven again also by the digital of Ruutu+. On the advertising sales, there you see a slightly lower advertising sales expectation for us and a smaller portfolio on the live events. And, of course, all that will continue with efficiency improvement measures that we are taking all the time across the Media business. Also in Media, we announced one divestment in January, Netwheels. And again, that has been factored into our guidance for 2024. And overall for Media that the results in our view of a slightly lower reported net sales and a modest earnings and margin improvement that we see there. And for both businesses, the long-term targets remain very much unchanged. And if you look at that, of course, that's very important around the learning, getting to the operational EBIT margin of over 23% from 2026 onwards. So, all those considerations are factored into what you see here for the outlook for 2024, the EUR 1.29 billion to EUR 1.34 billion and the Group's operational EBIT between the EUR 160 million to EUR 180 million. And if you summarize how we then look at the markets and the economies in that, then you see that we expect the advertising market in Finland to decline slightly, bit less percentage-wise than in '23, but still decline, and the overall development in all the other markets and overall performance in Finland to be relatively stable. So that's with regard to outlook for 2024. And then, I would like to finish my part with reconfirming 2 key points that we've made in the Capital Markets Day, which is the first one, if you look at our mid-term focus, the 3 key elements are firmly in place. So the focus is around increasing the profitability of Learning and Media Finland with all the elements that we've talked about, including, of course, very important project Program Solar; the growing organically, kind of different measures there; and in the mid-term, that focus on the smaller in-market acquisitions. And then on point 3, deleveraging the balance sheet and finding the right balance between doing that and also really being -- an important part of our story, being the dividend payout as well. So that's the combination there. So, very much in line with what we said before. If you look further ahead, 2030, then the growth ambition and long-term financial targets are very much unchanged, which you see repeated here around to get to the over EUR 2 billion overall in net sales. And mainly, of course, driven by the Learning business. So that's the longer part, and all the steps we are taking now in the midterm will also enable us to do it. At the same time, if something were to come up now that is really adding value for us, also if it's bigger, we would, of course, also seriously look at that. And then the long-term targets remain unchanged on the financial side. So, with that said, I would like to hand over to Alex to give more background on the financials.
Alex Green
executiveThank you, Rob, and great to be here with you today again for this full year results presentation. Let's start with the Q4 operational EBIT, which for Q4 2023 was at minus EUR 27 million versus minus EUR 2 million last year. But starting with Learning, and as Rob pointed out earlier, there is a big phasing story here with last year, a lot of value and a lot of deliveries in Spain and the Netherlands delayed to Q4, whereas this year, it's a much more normalized profile of the sort of quarters in terms of the Learning sales. So that's what is the vast majority of that difference. There is also some sales mix impacts in Poland with very good late sales this year. If I look at Media Finland, this is, again, consistent with the full year -- the story of the lower advertising revenues flowing through to margin together with higher personnel costs due to the salary inflation. I'm hearing in Q4, particularly also the more normalized bonus provisions and also the higher TV program costs driven by the recent, the Elisa deal that we had. And at the year-end, we also go through a lot of our TV broadcasting rights to make sure we've got the right valuations on the balance sheet, which led to some adjustments there as well. This offsetting the lower paper costs that we see coming through and also the continuous cost containment activities in that business. And in the other area and then -- and across the units, the more normalized bonus provisions has had an impact overall here. If I move on to free cash flow, as you saw, EUR 105 million, so a solid free cash flow generation for 2023. 2022 reported EUR 112 million had the one-off impact of the Pearson acquisition. And so the underlying free cash flow was EUR 65 million. So you see a significant increase here. A lot of it driven by this active working capital management, the focus we have and particularly at year-end on earlier billing, better collections, but also on lower inventory levels. So in a high cost of capital market, having those inventories only what you need it is much more sensible from a making use of our cash, and so we've brought down the inventory levels considerably there. That, together with lower tax payments and lower capital expenditure, is offsetting the higher financing costs, which you'll see later due to the high interest rates, the different level of Media Finland earnings as well. So, a good result for us and little bit better than we'd expected in terms of success of those programs to get to the EUR 105 million. Looking forward to 2024, we expect to maintain that level of cash flow generation with a number of factors offsetting each other. And so the lower content creation investments because we have no major curriculum renewals in Learning, offsetting the -- sorry, and also maintaining that high good level of working capital management, offsetting the higher further increase in financing costs as we are refinancing the EUR 200 million bond, which matures in March, which coming from a few years ago had a very advantageous cost, interest rate. Obviously, we will have a very competitive rate going forward, but it won't be at that levels. And then also offsetting the Solar IACs that we talked about at the Capital Markets Day before, which will be in 2024, which partly mitigated by the beginning of the benefits of that program. And if you remember Rob's slide about getting 80% of the actions done to hit the 2026 margin, you see a lot of that's coming in the second part of this year 2024, and that will start impacting the cash as well directly, leading to increases further, if I move towards 2025 past the Solar IACs and then 2026 with the higher margins, as we talked about in the Capital Markets Day, helping the -- going on that path of deleveraging. So, moving to the leverage. We end 2023 at 2.8, so below our target of 3, with net debt being coming down to EUR 640 million, lower than last year, but also lower than Q3, in line with the seasonality of the business. Equity ratio, 42.5%. So well within our target. And here, you see net financial items, full year at EUR 31 million versus EUR 13 million last year with interest rates average at 3.6% versus the 1.5%. And then, as always, the hybrid bond is booked as equity, so not in these net debt or financial items numbers as its debt and also the interest rate is booked to equity as well. And finally, a word on our refinancing. So, as I've mentioned, we have the EUR 200 million senior bond maturing in March, which we will refinance with the new EUR 100 million term loan that was signed in October and then also with our existing funding facilities following the strong cash generations. In addition, we also extended the EUR 300 million revolving credit facility by a year to November '26. We also have another option this year to extend it further. And as you see on the graph, we have a further EUR 100 million maturing at the very end of this year in term loan and we will be working through this year on refinancing that with a more extended longer-term finance as well. So with that, I will welcome my colleagues back to the stage to go into the Q&A session.
Kaisa Uurasmaa
executiveThank you, Alex. Thank you, Rob. And we are now ready to take questions. We will start here from Sanoma House. So please use the microphone. If we start with -- from there Nikko Ruokangas from SEB.
Nikko Ruokangas
analystYes. Great, Nikko Ruokangas from SEB. I have a couple of questions. So, first of all, looking at your sales guidance. So, how much of price impact do you include in this guidance? How much do you expect prices to move in '24?
R. B. Kolkman
executiveYes. If I first comment on Learning, we do expect to continue above average price increases, which for the coming year, we expect to be about 4% to 5% on the on the bits that are relevant there, which is mainly, of course, the Learning content side. On the Media side, it's not a specific percentage, but of course, we continue to look at optimizing the price levels there. But it's not such a specific percentage because it differs really per product.
Nikko Ruokangas
analystAll right, I understand. Then moving on to cash flow this year. So, could you comment your expectations for free cash flow development this year compared to '23?
Alex Green
executiveSo, we expect to be at the same levels as I walked through the different positive impacts and the negative impacts. So we will see the IACs for Solar, the larger part of the -- we announced EUR 45 million overall, and the large part is still to come, and the increased financing costs with the interest rates and the new bond sort of hitting into it, but maintaining the higher -- the better working capital practices and slightly lower investments will keep us at roughly the same level. And then once we get past the Solar IACs into next year with the higher margins, this will increase the cash flow in the outer years and helping our deleveraging.
Nikko Ruokangas
analystI understand. Then, last one from me. So you indicated that you expect the advertising market to decline slightly this year still. So, could you open your expectations? How do you see that coming now? Do you expect any kind of recovery or stabilizing in H2? And how good visibility do you have currently in the market?
R. B. Kolkman
executiveYou phrased that well. The visibility is, of course, the key element here. So the second part of the year is, of course, the very difficult one to predict. Overall, our working assumption is that the overall market in Finland, the economy is more stable, but we still expect a slight decrease in the advertising. Clearly, the second half of the year plays a very important role in that. That's where the visibility is less.
Nikko Ruokangas
analystAll right, I understand. That's all from me.
Kaisa Uurasmaa
executiveThank you, Nikko. And next, we will have Pia Rosqvist from Carnegie.
Pia Rosqvist-Heinsalmi
analystYes. Distribution sales in 2023 and now your plans for 2024, can you quantify the amount you are expected to exit?
Alex Green
executiveOkay. Yes. So, referring to the Dutch distribution, where we are coming out of low-value contracts,. I think in 2024, this is going to be, I'd say, roughly in the sort of EUR 30 million around that sort of level in terms of what that comes down. So it has an impact on the sales, but has a relatively neutral impact on the EBIT side.
Kaisa Uurasmaa
executiveAnd as you know, we started it about a year ago. And in '23, the impact was actually relatively small. So, it was around EUR 5 million only. So it will accelerate clearly, going forward.
Pia Rosqvist-Heinsalmi
analystGood. And related to the distribution business, who's taking over these contracts? What is happening in the market when you have decided to exit these contracts?
R. B. Kolkman
executiveYes, in fact -- it's a good point. So we're working very closely with the schools on that. So there are a couple of other players in the market where it could go to. But it's also that fundamental shift in model, and in some cases, the schools would do more direct of their own delivery and sometimes they find other solutions there. For us, the key thing is we want to change the business model of that market. We think that's important, going more towards a fee model, and any school that goes into that direction, we are, of course, very much also working with them.
Pia Rosqvist-Heinsalmi
analystThen 2 other things. You mentioned a smaller portfolio in live events. What is happening there? I'm sorry if I missed something in Media Finland.
R. B. Kolkman
executiveIt's mainly to do with the Rockfest festival, that's why.
Kaisa Uurasmaa
executiveRockfest doesn't take place in '24, and it's one of the largest festivals that we have had.
R. B. Kolkman
executiveYes.
Pia Rosqvist-Heinsalmi
analystAnd, why is this?
R. B. Kolkman
executiveI mean that's -- also to look at -- my understanding of it is, that has to do with how good we perform for that festival with the lineup and the team decided that, that would take another year to really properly do that. So that's why it's not happening.
Pia Rosqvist-Heinsalmi
analystAnd then to your midterm targets, I think the second one is growing organically. We've more seen now the -- I mean, events in the other direction. So, you have divested businesses or are divesting businesses. So, what are your plans to grow organically? Do we see -- will we see this in 2024? And then your upper end of your guidance range, does this include any assumptions of small bolt-ons or are they on top?
R. B. Kolkman
executiveThey are on top, to be very clear on that point. So the acquisitions are not factored in any way. If they happen, they happen and we'll update accordingly. So, to the point of divestments versus growth, I think we're very much focused on the growth side, the changes we have made, and we always will continue to look at our portfolio. But overall, we are very happy with our portfolio, and the focus is on that growth in all these areas that we could go into, whether it's the digital transformation in the Media side or when you also look at the curriculum growth that we see, of course, across the Learning business.
Kaisa Uurasmaa
executiveThank you, Pia. And then we have Petri Gostowski from Inderes.
Petri Gostowski
analystI have 2. So, I recall you did a lot of work on working capital this year. Are these changes based on your current contracts in Learning, so we can expect this working capital to be stronger in the future as well?
Alex Green
executiveYes. We -- most of the change we made to working capital are operations, are able to be repeated, whether it's to do with prepayments in certain markets, earlier invoicing. Those things are structural and we will continue to do that. And we also worked harder at collections and just getting our cash in and reducing our inventory levels. And so that -- those practices will not just continue but get better as we go forward. So, yes, the intent is, as built into the forecast, is that we maintain that good level of working cash management -- working capital management.
Petri Gostowski
analystThe next one is on Solar. Am I reading this correctly, if I read it that it's the run rate of the savings in mid '24 should be around 50%? So that's what you should expect to have in '25?
R. B. Kolkman
executiveSo that particular chart, just to be very specific on what that means is, we're focused on the full margins, the savings that hit us the 23% margin in 2026 and what is the progress towards that? So that charge indicates that by the end of 2024, 80% of the actions that lead to that margin improvement will be done, and therefore, they're kind of in the bag, if you like. And that's -- so that's that progress thing. And we particularly wanted to focus on that, given that a lot of our actions have that delayed impact on the P&L, earlier impact on cash, but because there were about -- a lot of it's around content creation, which would be capitalized and then amortized. And so really wanted to make the point of the actions being done in 2024.
Kaisa Uurasmaa
executiveThank you, Petri. Then we have Sanna Perala from Nordea.
Sanna Perälä
analystI have a couple of questions. First, could you elaborate what are the external printing sales you mentioned in the report?
R. B. Kolkman
executiveThat's to do with our, the printing facilities that we have and that also have some third-party printing there. So that's that line.
Sanna Perälä
analystA follow-up, what is the share of those, for example, in Media Finland?
Kaisa Uurasmaa
executiveI think we need to come back to you. It's actually -- but it's -- I guess, the other sales in Media Finland, they mainly include the events, sales and then this, the printing side.
R. B. Kolkman
executiveSo it's not insignificant, but it's not massive, but we can come back with the exact. It's not top of mind.
Sanna Perälä
analystRight. And then, in learning in Q4, the sales in Italy declined year-over-year. And then again, in Belgium, for example, they increased. Could you elaborate a little bit more of those events?
R. B. Kolkman
executiveYes. So, it's always a bit difficult in -- between the quarters because there is quite a bit of movement normally between quarter 3 and quarter 4. Overall, that trend that I highlighted was one where we now see a more normalized version of that. So that's also what you see there. It's not easy to say, it's exactly pinpointed by this or this. In in Italy and Spain, I mentioned, then you can pinpoint it to the returns and what happens to that, but that's less the case in those 2.
Sanna Perälä
analystAnd then my last question would be, you launched an Ilta-Sanomat extra service. Was it yesterday?
R. B. Kolkman
executiveYesterday, yes.
Sanna Perälä
analystAnd what are your expectations for this service in the future?
R. B. Kolkman
executiveWell, I think it's very important that our teams really come up with new ideas to see how we can really help the customer in what they would like to read or what they would like to experience. And I very firmly see this as a great example of it. We are not expecting that to be massive in pure revenue terms, but we do see it's very important from an engagement point of view.
Kaisa Uurasmaa
executiveThank you, Sanna. And then we have Sami Sarkamies from Danske Bank.
Sami Sarkamies
analystOkay. I have 4 questions, starting from Learning. Can you still help us to understand why you're not expecting a margin improvement this year, even though there will be tailwinds from the Solar program and you're also reducing low-margin activities and raising prices?
R. B. Kolkman
executiveYes. Maybe a comment from me and then, Alex, maybe a bit on the numbers. So, the core element there is around also what happens in the Spanish market, which is a highly profitable market and that will come down partly or mostly offset by the other Learning businesses, but the margins are somewhat different there. The other point to mention is if you look in Learning, we also see, of course, the divestment I mentioned of Stark. But overall, that's the key thing. You are correct that if you look at the distribution side, there's always a bit of margin there, but that's, of course, a relatively smaller part. Maybe, Alex?
Alex Green
executiveNo, I think you hit the main points. We'll take the divestment out. The impact of Spain versus being replaced by sales, which aren't quite at the same high-level margin of a large curriculum sale. We also have slightly high salary inflation coming in for part of the year as well. But net-net, they are the main points.
Sami Sarkamies
analystWould you be able to quantify that salary inflation anyway that, how material?
Alex Green
executiveWe haven't put a number to that. I think last year, we had it at 10% for the full-year number. I think it's going to come in, in the first part of this year because obviously, a lot of that came in, in the second half of this year, but we haven't put a number on that.
R. B. Kolkman
executiveI think what you see there, overall, of course, that inflation levels are significantly coming down. You see that reflected in the next phase of the salary change as well.
Sami Sarkamies
analystOkay. Continuing with Learning, can you provide some color on how you expect sales to develop in some of the key operating countries this year?
Alex Green
executiveI don't think we'd comment on that too specifically. But if you look at the trends that I also shared in the Capital Markets Day, they very firmly are still there. So the biggest one, of course, I've mentioned a couple of times on Spain, and you see continued good growth on the learning content side in the Netherlands, and then you see more stable to smaller increases in the other markets, partly still driven by above-average price increases as well.
Sami Sarkamies
analystOkay. And then on Media Finland, you're expecting slightly better margins and result this year even though advertising sales should still be down. Can you explain how you're able to achieve this? You haven't announced any new cost measures.
Alex Green
executiveNo, but the cost measures are, of course, an ongoing part of what we do in Media. So I think that's partly reflected in what we are saying here. And also, of course, the growth that you do see on the digital subscription sides contributes to this as well.
Sami Sarkamies
analystOkay. And then finally on the guidance, I guess, we can now assume that you're targeting midpoints, but could you maybe run us through some of the key variables that would take us towards the lower end of -- or higher end of the guidance ranges?
R. B. Kolkman
executiveYes, let me comment on that and then [ pass ] to Alex for maybe some more on the financials. But I think overall, the lower end is very much that uncertainty around the key drivers, right, particularly on the advertising sales and to a lesser extent, what I mentioned on Spain. Of course, in Learning as well, you see the quarter 3 being very, very important from a seasonal point of view, right? So, I think that's that part. And if you look at our performance this year in '23, then you, of course, also need to take into account the 2 divestments that we've mentioned before.
Kaisa Uurasmaa
executiveThank you. And then Maria Wikstrom from SEB.
Maria Wikstrom
analystYes. Just 2 probably quick questions. But first of all, there is some transactions, I guess, I mean, going on in the Nordic media scene. I mean, with Telia divesting the TV operations. So, do you think, I mean, you will be anyway involved in these kind of asset transactions or swaps or how would you call it?
R. B. Kolkman
executiveWe follow it with great interest, but no specific comments on that.
Maria Wikstrom
analystAnd then I would like to ask you that -- Rob, that how would you describe yourself as a leader compared to your predecessor?
R. B. Kolkman
executiveI think everybody is different, so I'm not going to compare to Susan. I think she's done a great job over her 8 years at the company. I think going forward, the focus from my end is very much also on making sure that the great teams we have in the organization can now really also deliver on these core elements. So, really making sure that they have the opportunity to focus on that organic growth that we mentioned to do the talent development that we need and also to make sure that we really can deliver on the key sort of focus points there. So, from that point of view, we also work very closely with Pia and her team on the Media side and the same on the Learning side. So, making sure that the local teams can do the right things is a core element for me, enabling great performance.
Kaisa Uurasmaa
executiveThank you, Maria. Any further questions from Sanoma House? If not, and I assume there are no questions on the telephone line at least at the moment either. So, we take a few from the chat. They are a bit continuing on the themes that we have already discussed. So maybe I start with the one that is continuing on the media industry developments. So, could you comment on the change that you've seen in the Finnish TV and media landscape in the context of rationalizing kind of the content investments in TV?
R. B. Kolkman
executiveYes, I think our position on that has been pretty clear, which is we do look at investment levels needing to be sustainable also from a business model point of view. We have made deliberate choices there to also not overinvest in that market. And I think that's very much also what we will continue to do. What other players do in the market is, of course, up to them.
Kaisa Uurasmaa
executiveIf that becomes healthier overall, does it have an impact on our financials?
R. B. Kolkman
executiveWell, it would, in theory, have a positive impact at that point, yes. But I think the market is still very much -- as was indicated earlier, very much in transition still.
Kaisa Uurasmaa
executiveOkay, thank you. And then on the free cash flow topic, still a bit -- the cash flow elaborations were already given on '24 and '25. But then specifically, how do we see the content creation investments change in absolute terms versus '23?
R. B. Kolkman
executiveSo, as part of the Solar program to get the higher margins in 2026, a part of that is looking at how we create content, and particularly after the last curriculum changes, how we create the right size -- team and the right size investment going forward across the markets and looking at it as a one learning business. And so, as we've talked about, a lot of -- a part of the savings that we'll see in 2026 from a margin perspective will come from lower investment and then depreciation through that channel, obviously, hitting cash earlier. We haven't put a specific -- we haven't in any of the particular parts of the Solar program, put specific numbers on it. But being more efficient in this area, working across markets is kind of helps to lead to that margin improvement, which is then sustained.
Alex Green
executiveAnd maybe one other comment on this. If you look at it from the perspective of the method creation, we really look at our publishing program increasingly across the whole company, which also means, if you then see over time, for example, the new curriculum happening in 1 market, we will make sure that, that doesn't immediately impact the overall investments we do, that it's more a consistent investment and we are positioning where we invest depending on what we see in the market. That was not possible before we had the scale we now have.
Kaisa Uurasmaa
executiveThank you. I think those were the questions from the chat. So, if no questions from the telephone line, I think that we will be wrapping up. And as a reminder, we will publish our Annual Report in a few weeks' time. The AGM will take place on 17th April, and then the Q1 results will come out 8th of May. So, we are looking forward to seeing you in connection to those events again. And, now, warm thanks from our side for participating in this event, and we are, of course, available also afterwards at Investor Relations for any further questions. So, thank you, and have a good day.
R. B. Kolkman
executiveThank you.
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