Sanoma Oyj (SANOMA) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

February 11, 2025

Nasdaq Helsinki FI Communication Services Media earnings 40 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

operator
#1

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Sanoma's Full Year 2024 Results Presentation. My name is Kaisa Uurasmaa. I'm heading Investor Relations and Sustainability at Sanoma. Our operational EBIT increased and free cash flow improved strongly in '24. And today, we have the President and CEO, Rob Kolkman; and CFO, Alex Green, to tell you more about the results. After their presentation, we will have a Q&A session. First, we will take questions from here at Sanoma House. Please wait for the microphone. Then we will hand over to the telephone line and then you can also use the chat function in the webcast for questions. The presentation, including the Q&A session, will be available as a recording on our website after the event. With this, I would like to invite Rob on stage, please.

R. B. Kolkman

executive
#2

Thank you very much, Kaisa, and good morning, everybody. It's my pleasure to present the full year '24 results to you. And as Kaisa already mentioned, it is really characterized by increased operational EBIT and also that strong free cash flow improvement. And before I go into all that, I thought it might be good to have a look at what we said at the time of the Capital Markets Day back at the end of '23 on the sort of midterm targets that we highlighted there. And I'm very pleased to see that we are making continued good progress towards them. Obviously, that is around the increasing profitability for both Learning and Media, particularly, of course, in a year like '24 on the margin side, but also the improving cash flow generation, which, of course, has helped a lot as well with the third point, which is strengthening our balance sheet, where we are now well within our range on the net debt over adjusted EBITDA of below 3. And I'll touch later on what that also, of course, means for our continued ambitions to grow also on the M&A side. So I thought it was good to give this perspective a bit looking back at what we said at the time and the good progress we are making in those key areas. We now look at the full year results, then the sales side is very much a continuation of what we've been saying throughout the year and also, of course, at the end of the quarter 3 already indicated that the top line would decline slightly. It's mainly due to the planned discontinuation of those low-value learning material contracts in the Netherlands and Belgium, and there is also the element of the divestments in both Media and Learning. The operational EBIT improved and also higher margins, both in Learning and in Media Finland. I touched on the strong free cash flow that is really driven, and Alex will talk about that later, by the higher results, the EBITDA and also lower investments. So really fundamental improvement there on our free cash flow. Also pleased to say that Program Solar, the core actions have now been materially completed, and we already indicated that at the end of quarter 3, and that has now happened. And I'll touch on a couple of the key points in a minute as well. The balance sheet deleveraging continued, now improved to 2.2. And again, Alex will give some more highlights on those elements. The Board proposes everything considered a dividend of EUR 0.39, which is EUR 0.02 above last year to be paid in the usual 3 equal now installments. And the outlook for '25, it's mentioned here already. I will touch on that more in depth in a minute, but that is an expected net sales of between EUR 1.28 billion and EUR 1.33 billion and an operational EBIT between EUR 170 million to EUR 190 million, with, of course, this year's results, '24 results being really in the middle of that. But I'll come back to that in a minute. Let's now zoom in on Learning and Media separately, starting with Learning. And there, because Learning, of course, has the main quarter 3 is the big one. Quarter 4 is, of course, very much a continuation of what we highlighted. The impact of the distribution contracts is about EUR 28 million in 2024. And it's also good to see that Spain, if anything, ended up slightly better in quarter 4 with the returns than we thought. But overall, the Spain declined because of the lower LOMLOE was more than offset by the growth in our other learning content market. So that underlying growth is there in '24, particularly driven, as we already highlighted, by Poland and the Netherlands. And also '24 was still a year of above price -- average price increases, which you also see reflected in the numbers. And good also to be aware that the divestment of Stark has now had its full year impact of EUR 14 million, of which EUR 5 million was in quarter 4. Pleased to say as well that we did a small acquisition here in Finland. The secondary education methods from Edita we acquired, of course, very small, but it fits very nicely into our highly synergetic kind of acquisitions we want to do in our markets. If you then go to the profitability side, there you saw stable operational EBIT. And if you actually take into account the divestment of Stark, the numbers would be slightly positive but limited. So let's say, overall stable. The trends there very much the same as what we highlighted before. The net sales decrease in Spain, that was, of course, profitable -- very profitable sales coming down, but we, at the same time, saw the lower paper and personnel cost, the price increases and also the slight growth in the other learning content markets, supporting very much the earnings there. And as a result of the slightly lower top line and stable overall operational earnings, we saw the margins improve to 19.2%. Let's now zoom in on Program Solar. As I mentioned, we have materially completed Program Solar with regards to the actions. So this is also the last time we will show it in this format because we are now really above 80% with all the actions taken. That puts us in a really good position to deliver those efficiencies in 2026 of EUR 55 million, which, of course, is a key supporter for reaching our long-term target of 23% in 2026 as well. The first impacts were visible already in 2024 on the free cash flow and also on elements of the cost base that we'll touch on as well. The streams have very much stayed the same on Program Solar. So a big part that we highlighted at the end of quarter 3 was, of course, that we were in the middle of doing a reorganization, the second phase of the reorganization in Spain, a very tough one, but a very necessary one as well, which already at the time was reflected in the IACs, but not yet in the percentage. So a big part of the increase in percentage now is due to that. Of course, there's still things to be done in that remaining 18-or-so percent and they are across the different parts here. For example, the continuing growth of our nearshoring in Poland and Spain, but also some of the other optimizations in the support functions, they will continue. But materially, this is done. And from now on, the focus very much is on showing that, that is reflected in the cash flow and particularly from '26 and also our curriculum increases, you will see that fully reflected in our operating EBIT as well. Let's now zoom in on Media Finland. The net sales there ended up for the full year at EUR 581 million. The trends there are very much the same that we've been highlighting for some time, which is there is good growth on the digital side, both in subscriptions as well as in advertising. But at the same time, we see the decline, of course, happening with regard to -- mainly also in the advertising sales in newsprint and TV. And that was also visible in quarter 4, which, as you all have seen on the total market was also a weaker advertising market in Finland. On the subscription sales, the growth there of 3%, really good development of Ruutu+ throughout the year, but also the digital new subscriptions continued to show good growth. The other lower other sales events and external printing sales, nothing new there. That was already reflected previously in the numbers as well. And also here, good to be aware of the portfolio changes of about EUR 10 million for the full year on the top line. On the operational earnings and margin, we saw there for the full year, the improvement to 8.2%, again, driven by the same similar kind of trends, the growth in digital subscription offsetting -- more than offsetting the decline in print. The growth in digital advertising sales, which, of course, offsetting the decline in print there as well. We still see lower paper cost, declining prices and volume have an impact there, of course. And then very pleased to see how Pia Kalsta and the team are constantly working on further improving the operational efficiency and that in '24 also again had a positive impact, especially on the personnel cost. So with all that considered, it comes back down to the Board proposal for the dividend on the EUR 0.39, that increase of EUR 0.02 with equal installments now proposed of EUR 0.13 in 3 installments. And that represents about EUR 64 million in cash and about 44% of our free cash flow. So the increasing part and it being between the 40% to 60% makes that firmly within the dividend policy that we have. So that's around '24 and sort of the key elements, very much, as I say, a continuation of what we saw, of course, already in quarter 3. Let me now give a bit more context to the outlook for '25. And similar setup to what we did for '24. Let's look at both businesses separately and look at the key elements there. So '25 is the last year where we still see the net sales on the Learning side somewhat declining, and there are 2 factors at play there. The first one is around the ongoing discontinuation of the low-value distribution contracts. We already indicated at the end of quarter 3 that we would expect that to be in the similar range that we saw in '24, so between EUR 25 million and EUR 30 million that is reconfirmed here. And we see the last phase of the lower cycle in Spain, but that is actually more than offset by the growth in the other learning market. And here, we will also see some elements of the cost base, which is largely, of course, driven by Solar, leading to that slightly improving margin in the year before the larger curriculum renewals. So this [ 25 ] is that last year before you will see the organic growth really step up as a result also of the curriculum renewals and of course, all the hard work around growth organically in our business. So that leads for the Learning part to slightly lower net sales but a stable operational earnings and therefore, logically, slightly improving margin for the full year. On the Media Finland side, we expect a continued modest growth in subscription sales, again, driven by digital and also by considerate price increases. And the second part is slightly lower B2B advertising sales. The trend will continue there of growth in digital, but lower print and TV. And good, of course, for TV to be aware of the fact that there, we have ended the deal with Disney on the reselling of their advertising. That's, of course, at a much lower profitability, but it has an impact on the top line, which we factored into the forecast as well. And also here, we will continue to see efficiency improvements driving that stable operational earnings expectation and again, logically speaking, a slightly improving margin as a result. So overall, also on the Finland side -- Media Finland side, slightly lower net sales, stable operational earnings in absolute terms expected, slightly improving margin as a result. And that's reflected here then in the overall outlook that we published today with that revenue being between EUR 1.28 billion and EUR 1.33 billion and the profitability, EBIT excluding PPA, between EUR 170 million and EUR 190 million. The assumptions we have summarized as follows: on the Learning side, that the demand will be relatively stable across the market. So that is reflecting my comment around some decline still in Spain, growth in other ones more or less seeing that stability in demand. And the advertising market in Finland, we expect for the full year to be relatively stable. If I look at where we stand today with the advertising market, then that is still slightly declining. So our expectation is that, that throughout the year will improve and therefore, for the full year, be relatively stable. So I think that's it with regard to, let's say, the numbers. And then I would like to end with talking a bit about our ambitious strategy for growth that is firmly in place. And actually, I'm very encouraged by what we have seen this year and also the improvement in the deleveraging of our balance sheet and therefore, creating space for further growth. So we will stay very firmly focused on increasing our profitability and free cash flow in both Learning and Media, of course, growing organically in Learning, which, of course, will mainly happen from '26 onwards. You will then really see it in our numbers, underlying, there's already, of course, a bit going on there, as I mentioned. If anything, the digital transformation in Media Finland, we remain focused on accelerating that further and also successfully, of course, and a core message as well is around M&A. I think with the steps we've taken in '24, we are really in the position to continue to focus on the end market consolidations, but also firmly if bigger acquisitions, value creating one come up, we are very firmly focused on those as well. And we would love to continue to grow the business going forward with that M&A in mind as well. And of course, all that with meeting the leverage and equity ratio targets and also the dividend policy firmly in mind. So that's it for now. I'm sure we'll come back to some of the key elements in our Q&A. And let me now hand over to Alex to talk you through the financials.

Alex Green

executive
#3

Thank you, Rob. Thank you. Good to see you all here again. So let's go through the financials and start, as usual, with the operational EBIT for Q4 specifically. And as you can see here, a very consistent year with last year with minus EUR 27 million in both years. And there are some offsets in both of the main businesses with -- in the Learning side, a favorable business mix as we have the discontinuation of low-value contracts in the Netherlands and Belgium with some lower variable costs offset by the divestment of Stark. Now Stark had its profitability in '23, very skewed to Q4. So it did have an impact here offsetting that positivity. And on the Media Finland, as we've heard, the growth in digital subscription sales that we're very pleased with, plus the lower paper cost and the personnel offset by the weaker advertising sales that we saw at the back end of the year. And then the other and elimination is relatively stable, and we expect that that cost base to continue to be similar going forward. If we look at the key income statement table, you can see here a significantly improved EBIT. If you look at the last 2 columns, which are full year, so the EBIT going up by EUR 30 million, impacted by the operational EBIT up by [ EUR 5 million ] and then also lower IACs of EUR 20 million lower in 2024. And you see on the left-hand side, the 2 main items within there, that we've talked about for the year, the Solar restructuring costs and also the impairment of EUR 29 million, which is linked to the discontinuation of the low-value contracts. Net financing items, the interest costs within that went up slightly. Now overall, the average interest rates went up because we repaid a very low interest bond at the beginning of the year and replaced it with a very competitive but slightly higher rate of 4% social bond in September. The overall debt level has come down, as you'll see, but net-net, that increased the financial items, which took us to a result for the period significantly better than 2023. We're focusing on then the strong free cash flow improvement. And as you can see on the table on the top right, we went from EUR 105 million to EUR 145 million, the big impact is coming from the higher result, the EBITDA and also the lower investments. In terms of the investments, lower and more efficient investments, you can see in the -- particularly in the prepub costs in Learning, which is partly driven by our Solar initiatives and then also lower investments in TV program rights within the Media Finland business. We also had lower taxes paid, partly offset by the higher financing costs that I talked about. And as we look forward, so EUR 145 million in 2024, and we expect that to further increase in 2025 with some further working capital improvements there as well. And Rob talked about the progress we had in the leverage and net debt. So net debt came down to EUR 569 million at the end of the year from EUR 640 million last year, and that with the improved EBITDA, reduced our leverage to 2.2, well below the 3 target that we have. Equity ratio up at the top end of our target range at 45%, thus continuing to progress in what we said at the Capital Markets Day and deleveraging the balance sheet. And as Rob was saying before, putting us in a great position for M&A where we have -- where we are increasing the capacity as we go forward. And finally, just to show again the maturity profile of external debt here, which is much improved due to the actions we've taken during the year. So we extended the maturity of the revolving credit facility of EUR 300 million to or another further year to November 2027. And also, as mentioned, the EUR 150 million social bond, which has a 3-year maturity, therefore, matures in 2027, helps that profile. And that, together with a solid performance in our ESG ratings during the year and our leverage that we talked about puts us in a great position going forward. So there's the financial slides, and I'll welcome my colleagues back to stage, and we will go to the Q&A.

Kaisa Uurasmaa

executive
#4

Thank you, Alex. Thank you, Rob, and we are happy to take questions. A reminder to the webcast, please use the chat function to ask questions. But we start from here at Sanoma House. So maybe Sami from my right-hand side, please wait from the microphone.

Sami Sarkamies

analyst
#5

Sami Sarkamies, Danske Bank. I have 4 questions. We'll take this one by one. Starting from the guidance assumptions. What kind of macroeconomic conditions do you assume for Media Finland based on your assumption for stable advertising media markets, you don't seem to assume much growth in your forecast.

R. B. Kolkman

executive
#6

I think if you look at the forecasting there, I look at the same numbers that you do look at, which is a slight economic growth, of course, for Finland assumed. If I purely then zoom in on what does it mean for the advertising side, then what I mentioned earlier is we expect effectively then therefore, an improvement in the situation throughout the year, but we are starting still from a base that currently is showing decline rather than stability. That's sort of the way I look at it.

Sami Sarkamies

analyst
#7

Okay. And then moving on to Learning, what kind of price increases does your forecast assume relative to typical price increases?

R. B. Kolkman

executive
#8

Yes. So of course, the last 2 years, we really saw the above-average price increases to compensate for the high inflation 2, 3 years ago. We are now going back to what we consider more normalized price increases, which is in most of our markets, just slightly above the inflation rate. So if you were to put that in percentages, it's more around that 3%, 3%, 4% rather than the 4% to 6% that we saw over the last 2 years.

Sami Sarkamies

analyst
#9

Okay. And then moving on to your EBIT guidance. I think it looks a bit cautious, especially when looking at the lower end of the range, EUR 170 million. You did EUR 180 million last year. You're assuming stronger advertising media markets. You will see additional benefits from the solar program. What would take you to EUR 170 million this year?

R. B. Kolkman

executive
#10

I think you already touched on the key point there, right, which is, of course, if you think about the advertising market, we are now standing, what is it, mid-February, not even. That's the biggest risk, of course, and uncertainty that we have. To your point, what would it take to get to EUR 170 million is indeed that, that would be lower than what we are currently, of course, on the midrange expecting.

Sami Sarkamies

analyst
#11

And then finally, on the cash flow outlook for this year, can you be a bit more specific on what kind of improvement we could expect? I think you already mentioned that it's coming from working capital.

R. B. Kolkman

executive
#12

Yes. So EUR 105 million to EUR 145 million this year. I'm not expecting it to jump the same amount. I'm expecting it to be somewhat above the EUR 145 million, but not necessarily significantly above at this point.

Kaisa Uurasmaa

executive
#13

Thank you, Sami. Nikko, please continue.

Nikko Ruokangas

analyst
#14

Yes. Nikko Ruokangas from SEB. I have also a couple of questions and maybe starting with guidance and outlook for Learning. So as you are expecting slightly increasing margins, but stable earnings there, but as you are cutting some low profitability contracts, so you already technically have improved margin there. So are you not expecting any kind of benefit from the solar program already this year?

R. B. Kolkman

executive
#15

There are some benefit from the solar program in there, particularly, Alex, I think, highlighted as well on the personnel cost that we would see. But it is '25 is the last year where we are really still at the lower end of the cycle. So I think the bigger impact there is around the fact that the combination of Spain with the other markets is, as I say, more or less stable to slightly increasing. So it then will depend on where it exactly ends up to what extent the margins improve, but we currently expect mainly to the logic that you highlight as well with the top line coming down because of the low-value contracts that the margin will improve as a result of that mainly.

Nikko Ruokangas

analyst
#16

Yes. I understand. Then on balance sheet side as you showed that your leverage has come down and you also highlighted some possibilities for continuation of acquisitions. So how comfortable would you be not only to do bolt-on acquisitions, but also bigger ones given that your leverage still is close to 3 with the hybrid?

R. B. Kolkman

executive
#17

You go for the hybrid.

Alex Green

executive
#18

Well, yes, and obviously, the hybrid is -- will be repaid in early 2026. But for 2025, with the increased cash flow that we expect to generate as well, we will continue to deleverage through 2025. We have in the past talked about having the capacity to do an acquisition, the bolt-on in market ones of similar size to the Pearson one we did a few years ago. We now, with the better position, believe we can do higher one as well and still be in a good position at the end of the year and going into next year to repay the hybrid bond.

Nikko Ruokangas

analyst
#19

All right.

R. B. Kolkman

executive
#20

And maybe one other comment on that. Knowing that these things always take time, we are, as management, very firmly focused on both, right? So both the end market as well as the more new acquisitions in other markets.

Nikko Ruokangas

analyst
#21

Yes. Then on cash flow side, you showed also lower prepublication rights, broadcasting rights and so on in '24. So do you feel that they are coming down still in '25 due to solar impacts or was the bottoming in '24?

R. B. Kolkman

executive
#22

So the biggest impact on the prepublication rights will be in 2026 in terms of margin perspective as we ramp up in the volumes as you have the curriculum changes coming into 2026. We have made our prepub costs more efficient, and that's why we saw an improvement. I expect them to be at relatively similar levels, slightly down, but relatively similar as we build up towards that 2026. But when the volumes go up, the unit cost will be lower, and therefore, we'll see the benefit there in 2026.

Nikko Ruokangas

analyst
#23

Okay. Then last one from me. Sales guidance indicates, if I remember right, roughly [ EUR 15 million ] to EUR 65 million decline in '25. So is that mainly driven by the ending of low profitability distribution contracts? Or are there any kind of other larger items do you expect to come downwards?

R. B. Kolkman

executive
#24

So we see -- yes, so at the group level, we see going into '24, '25, a similar level. We said EUR 28 million revenue drop in '24 based on the discontinuation. We see similar level, if we said EUR 25 million to EUR 30 million. And we also in the Media Finland side, have the Disney contract, which is no longer applicable, which was in the high teens, around EUR 17 million. And so that will come down, although at an EBIT level, that was a fairly low-margin business case and contract. And so we will offset the EBIT of that in different ways. But those are the things that impact on the revenue side.

Kaisa Uurasmaa

executive
#25

Thank you. And Pia, please.

Pia Rosqvist-Heinsalmi

analyst
#26

Pia Rosqvist from Carnegie. A few questions. If I start with the balancing, I think you discussed it already, but still the balance between M&A versus paying back your hybrid bond. So I get the impression that you are very firmly committed to paying back that bond.

R. B. Kolkman

executive
#27

That is correct.

Pia Rosqvist-Heinsalmi

analyst
#28

Yes. But it will not limit your capability to do larger.

R. B. Kolkman

executive
#29

Correct.

Pia Rosqvist-Heinsalmi

analyst
#30

Yes. And with regards to the M&A and if we talk about regions, do you have ambitions also outside of Europe?

R. B. Kolkman

executive
#31

Yes. So if you look at the M&A, our focus is firmly on K12. And that can be in Europe, and it's obvious that there are certain markets where we would love to play a role, but K12 is the focus. So if the right one comes along that is outside of Europe, we would also seriously consider that.

Pia Rosqvist-Heinsalmi

analyst
#32

Okay. Then I'm wondering about the lower paper costs you referred to. I think you said earlier in the year that most of that benefit has already been captured. But can you quantify the effect of lower paper costs?

R. B. Kolkman

executive
#33

In 2024, we saw on the Media Finland side, we saw a EUR 10 million lower cost in paper, although 2/3 of that came from a sort of volume decrease and the other 1/3 came from the sort of unit price decrease. Impact in Learning was about EUR 7 million there. As we go forward into 2025, we're expecting paper costs to go up slightly with inflation, but we will continue to see volume decreases on the media side -- Media Finland side as we continue with the digitalization and relatively stable volumes on the Learning side.

Pia Rosqvist-Heinsalmi

analyst
#34

And with regards to the solar program, so have you kind of -- have you seen opportunities to do more than you are currently targeting?

R. B. Kolkman

executive
#35

Yes. I think when you do a big program like this, there's always things coming up. We think there's an additional opportunity here. I think the big one that we also highlighted was, of course, the restructuring basically and setting it up for growth of the Spanish business that we have. And there, I think Alejandro Castex and the team have done a really great job in really going further than they also originally thought on how can we now really set it up for further growth. So that's an example. The other one where we constantly are challenging ourselves, can we do more? Can we do differently is, of course, also on the harmonization of the platforms. We know that, that is a multiyear approach, and you will never really be finished, but constantly new elements pop up. And of course, not to be underestimated, the possibilities certainly in the medium term of the use of AI in all kind of [ astronaut ] business is also something that, of course, was less clearly pronounced when we started solar. So that will continue, but that is then more in our business as usual rather than calling it still solar. I think that part where we're saying that is what we have planned to do, that is materially now completed.

Pia Rosqvist-Heinsalmi

analyst
#36

And then to Media Finland, the gambling market legislation is in change. Do you have any expectations of an impact for this year? Or is it more next year or even beyond that?

R. B. Kolkman

executive
#37

Yes. Our best estimate is certainly not this year. It might be second half of '26 or more like early '27. But at the moment, I think if you were to ask it as per now, it's more like second half of '26 where the expectations are.

Pia Rosqvist-Heinsalmi

analyst
#38

Okay. And then finally, regarding Media Finland, looking at the constant restructuring costs and listening to your message, I think one should conclude that they are continuing. So we should expect to see continued restructuring costs in Media Finland.

R. B. Kolkman

executive
#39

I think the key thing there is that Pia Kalsta and the team are constantly looking indeed of better ways to operate, dealing also there with the opportunities that, for example, AI delivers. So I would, in line with what you're saying, expect that to continue. And that's also logical if you think about an organization that is going through such a transformation effectively from a business model point of view as well.

Kaisa Uurasmaa

executive
#40

Thank you, Pia. Further questions from Petri, please.

Petri Gostowski

analyst
#41

Yes. Petri Gostowski from Inderes. Just a clarification on the '25 free cash flow. Can you discuss how do you expect your investments to develop this year?

Alex Green

executive
#42

We're expecting a relatively stable investments going into 2025 and that the cash flow will increase due to further improved working capital management.

Petri Gostowski

analyst
#43

I hope I'm not going ahead of myself, but then thinking about '26 in regards of free cash flow, obviously, you're saying Learning will improve profitability. There will be a driver. But what should we expect on the investment side in '26?

Alex Green

executive
#44

So I think we think of '26 cash flow, if you think of profitability improvement and you think of getting past the solar IACs where we still have an element in 2025. That's obviously going to have a positive impact. Absolute level of investments in prepub will go up with the higher curriculum change, but the unit cost of it, so the efficiency and therefore, margin impact will be higher.

Petri Gostowski

analyst
#45

I'll leave it here.

Kaisa Uurasmaa

executive
#46

Okay. Thank you. Any further questions from Sanoma House audience? If not, I would like to hand over to the telephone line if we have any questions there.

Operator

operator
#47

[Operator Instructions] There are no more questions at this time. So I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.

Kaisa Uurasmaa

executive
#48

Thank you. We have a few more questions from Sanoma House. Sami, please.

Sami Sarkamies

analyst
#49

Sami Sarkamies, Danske Bank. One more question. What are you expecting in terms of one-off costs in '25 and '26?

Alex Green

executive
#50

In terms of IAC costs, so in the -- on the Learning side, we still have EUR 5 million to EUR 7 million remaining of solar IACs. We did EUR 17 million in '23, [ EUR 22 million ] in '24. So we said it will be around the EUR 45 million mark. So the remainder a bit of that. We'll also have a modest amount of IT reset costs in there and some potentially smaller restructures. And then in the Media Finland side, as we talked about, continual process improvement, continual efficiencies, which will potentially trigger EUR 5 million to EUR 10 million on that side is that kind of level.

Sami Sarkamies

analyst
#51

So how much would be the total roughly?

Alex Green

executive
#52

And so that -- if you add all that up, it's under EUR 20 million. But this is the stuff that you can plan upfront, right? Obviously, you also get potentially through the year. We obviously do our impairment checks all the way through, and these things get impacted by business decisions. But that's the stuff that is the ongoing kind of planned.

Sami Sarkamies

analyst
#53

Yes. So assuming no impairments, about EUR 20 million this year and I guess, about EUR 15 million in '26.

Alex Green

executive
#54

I haven't got that fast to thinking about '26 in that sense. But yes, that's about less than EUR 20 million.

Kaisa Uurasmaa

executive
#55

Pia, please.

Pia Rosqvist-Heinsalmi

analyst
#56

It's Pia from Carnegie. Just one clarification regarding the impairments. You did an impairment on the discontinued distribution contracts, and now you flagged for more for this year. So should we expect...

Alex Green

executive
#57

I didn't flag any impairments.

Pia Rosqvist-Heinsalmi

analyst
#58

No. You flagged for continued lower sales...

Alex Green

executive
#59

Yes. Apologies.

Pia Rosqvist-Heinsalmi

analyst
#60

The distribution contract. So I'm just thinking about the effect on possible impairments.

Alex Green

executive
#61

No, good question. So the impairment check that we did, the sort of the review which created the impairment in 2024 was a view going forward of revenue levels for the future, right? And so it took into account exactly what we've said about going down in '24, going down in '25, a little bit in '26 before we get to the point of we start winning competitive tenders and the revenue starts going up. So that impairment was a view of the balance sheet value based on that entire plan. So it doesn't get -- it does -- there isn't sort of new every year because of that. So it's taken from that point on, full reflection of the value of the balance sheet. So that holds for a long period.

Kaisa Uurasmaa

executive
#62

Thank you. And I will continue with a few questions from the chat that also relate to the free cash flow and IACs, for example, and investments. So anything specific still that we could say on the investments in TV in '25?

R. B. Kolkman

executive
#63

I mean the overall level is continuing to be similar, right? So we're not expecting a major change there as such.

Alex Green

executive
#64

Yes, I agree.

R. B. Kolkman

executive
#65

And then tax payments, I mean, tax impact on free cash flow. We indicated that in '24, there was some phasing in taxes paid between the years, which will indicate that in '25, it will be at least somewhat higher. But do you have, Alex, anything further advise to that?

Alex Green

executive
#66

If you look at the tax numbers we've shown, 2023 was a particularly unique year. There was a number of items in there that were disallowable, which showed a sort of higher tax. So that's why there was that change. I think going from -- the 2024 numbers are much more consistent with a lot, hardly any kind of disallowables are not significant. And I expect to see that continue going forward. And so therefore, a relatively stable tax position going forward. That said, caveat is that timing of tax payments in the cash flow side are sometimes a little bit erratic from governments. We do sometimes get late payments and occasionally early payments from governments of quite sizable amounts, repayments of tax. So that does actually skew the cash flow slightly year-on-year. For instance, we got an early payment of about EUR 5 million from government. 2 months early, we weren't expecting in December this year. So that can impact there. But in terms of the P&L side, the tax amounts are going to be relatively stable.

Kaisa Uurasmaa

executive
#67

Thank you. And then a question, how much savings are you expecting to see from Media Finland change negotiations in '25? So we don't have any change negotiations going on. So I think that refers to the restructuring that we already discussed.

R. B. Kolkman

executive
#68

Yes. And there, I don't think we give any further detailed information on that. That is reflected in our outlook as well for '25.

Kaisa Uurasmaa

executive
#69

Yes. So no further questions in the chat, if anything further from the Sanoma House? No, we then conclude the presentation and the Q&A. And as a reminder, our next financial reporting, so the Q1 report will be published on 29th of April. On the same day, we will also host our AGM. So it will mean that this event takes place only in the afternoon, so already a heads of that. With this, we conclude the presentation. Thank you for your active participation. And afterwards, please be in touch with us at Investor Relations with any further questions. Thank you all, and have a good day.

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