Santam Ltd ($SNT)

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, analysts, shareholders, board members and fellow stakeholders. I'm Tava Madzinga, the Group CEO of Santam, and I'm delighted to be with you today as we present our full year results for the 12 months ended 31st December 2025. This morning, I'm joined by Wikus Olivier, our Finance Director and CFO; and Thabiso Rulashe, the Head of Strategy and Investor Relations. This morning, I'll focus my remarks on the high-level strategic operational narrative behind the numbers. Wikus will then take us through the detailed financials shortly. I am pleased to present a strong full year performance with most key metrics currently exceeding our long-term targets. This demonstrates a continued track record of delivery and measured strategic progress. Over the reporting period, we have benefited from an abnormally benign claims environment and improved investment return on the float portfolios exceeding benchmarks. This performance is anchored on disciplined underwriting, which remains a core focus. We are building a platform for accelerated value creation that is underpinned by a dedicated Santam team, our valued intermediaries, client and strategic partnerships. Now turning to the operating environment. Across the world, structural shifts are redefining the risk landscape. We are operating in a period of sustained volatility. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Global supply chains continue to rebalance, and the policy divergence across major economies is becoming increasingly more pronounced. If you look at the World Uncertainty Index, uncertainty today is materially higher than in previous cycles. This is being driven by geopolitical conflicts, the ongoing repositioning of relationships and greater fragmentation in global trade. However, at the same time, technology, especially robotics and generative AI, are accelerating rapidly, bringing tremendous opportunity but also intensifying competition, operational and also cybersecurity risks. For insurers, this means navigating a certainly more complex risk profile while leveraging this technology to drive efficiency, underwriting precision and customer experience. Despite this backdrop, global economic sentiment has remained surprisingly resilient. IMF projections at the time continue to point towards steady positive GDP growth underpinned by emerging markets, which remain a critical engine of global expansion. However, we are also seeing growing competition across global insurance markets, which is putting pressure on pricing. Reinsurance rates are trending down after years of positive momentum while outcomes vary very widely by region, layer and loss experience. The market has largely remained disciplined around terms and conditions. And so while the macroeconomic environment is volatile, it is also rich with opportunities for disciplined profitability, innovative-led growth and international diversification. Now much closer to home, the narrative for 2025 was materially more positive than it has been in the 12 to 18 months before that. Structural reforms are supporting a more resilient and constructive outlook even as the global environment does remain volatile. Energy generation capacity has improved, reducing load-shedding intensity and improving reliability within the grid. We are seeing a strong rebound in new vehicle sales, which is an important indicator of household and business confidence and has direct implications for the short-term insurance market. Inflation during 2025 has been trending in the right direction, moving much closer to the target. In 2025, the rand gained almost 13% against the dollar and 16% against the rupee, supported by improved investor sentiment, followed also by the removal from the FAA gray list and the credit rating upgrade that we saw late last year. Now the strength of the rand in 2025, while positive, has dampened the returns on our international capital portfolio. Overall, all these factors suggest that South Africa is regaining momentum supported by measurable progress on key reforms with GDP gradually recovering. For us at Santam, this creates an environment in our core market where we can continue to execute with confidence driving profitable growth. And so while we continue to operate in a world marked by uncertainty, disciplined underwriting, diversified growth, strong partnerships and the need for continued investment in technology and data, all of which remain a key underpin to our strategy. Now let me give you the headline numbers. Top line growth remains strong with a clear -- which is a clear indicator of our market strength, risk selection and pricing capability as well as the value that we continue to provide to our clients. Our group underwriting margin almost doubled year-on-year, exceeding the 5% to 10% target range. This significant improvement is a direct result of disciplined underwriting. We did also benefit from favorable attritional loss experience in a benign period marked by lower significant weather catastrophe losses. Net income is up 10%, supported by the improvement in profitability of the in-force book and a strong turnaround in the property portfolio. Our annualized return on capital is at 29.2%, well in excess of our 24% target. Considering our capital position, our Board has declared a total ordinary dividend of ZAR 16.80 per share, up 10.5% on 2024. Pleasing though is that our premium contribution from the direct channels has increased to 22% off the back of excellent results from MiWay. Equally, the contribution from international markets is now sitting at 19%, largely boosted by Santam Re. Now beyond the numbers, we have made very steady progress in executing our future for 2030 strategy. But before I get into that, I'd like to take a step back and provide you with a high-level overview of our FutureFit strategy. It is now 3 years since we launched our refreshed strategy, which is anchored around 3 key growth vectors. Strengthening our South African base; expanding internationally; scaling our ecosystem play and exploring new markets through partnerships. I am pleased to report that our growth vectors are progressing well. We do remain the leader in the South African intermediated short-term insurance market with a market share of over 20%. Our investment in broker relationships, product innovation and claim service quality continues to differentiate us. Secondly, we are focused on driving international expansion and diversification to reduce single country exposure. We aim to pursue new growth avenues by expanding our specialist capabilities and scaling reinsurance, while also leveraging the SanlamAllianz partnership across the rest of Africa. We have successfully restructured our Santam Re business and complemented it with strong leadership, and it is well positioned to be a meaningful and growing contributor to the group's earnings over the medium term. We continue to make meaningful progress in driving expansion into new market segments through our strategic partnerships. Our MTN partnership continues to experience strong growth in MTN device insurance sales with a policy count of nearly 600,000 and potential for more inclusive insurance solutions. In May, we announced the successful completion of the MultiChoice general insurance transaction, adding more than 1 million insurance stakeholder clients. As a reminder, our stake is 60% of the A1 ordinary shares. And so we do continue to search for partnerships that will create stickiness, unlock new revenue streams and deepen our customer relationships. We believe that by strengthening our asset base and expanding internationally and scaling our ecosystems, we are positioning ourselves for sustained long-term growth. Turning to MiWay. The GWP growth trend over the last 18 months has been very encouraging, consistently delivering double-digit performance. This has been supported by a very robust marketing strategy, improved performance across sales channels, in particular, the inbound personal lines direct model and business insurance. The success is driven by continued improvement in momentum in the personal lines, which doubled compared to the previous years with higher conversion rates, a higher average premium value as well. The Micashback, our newly launched loyalty program in MiWay, is supporting the drivers as stated above. The net positive addition of over 10,000 policies in 2025 reflects strong top line growth momentum in a very competitive environment. More importantly, we continue to see significant upside in our direct channels. Now let me now provide you with an update on the international growth vector, Santam Syndicate 1918, which is positioning Santam for our next chapter of growth. Over the past year, we have made significant progress in strengthening and diversifying our growth engine through Santam Syndicate 1918 at Lloyd's. Following the Lloyd's Consul's final approval to underwrite, we are now firmly in the early ramp-up phase. Our foundational teams are in place, initial operations have now commenced, and critically, we're building the right capabilities to scale sustainably. We have appointed a seasoned London-based executive team that is supported by the expertise of our enabling services and specialist teams here in South Africa, and we continue to recruit for the remaining specialist underwriting roles and that we will need to drive this business forward. Our approval capacity for the syndicate now exceeds GBP 300 million, and we have successfully concluded $40 million representing incremental business that has already been secured and we expect to flow over the next to 18 months. We have also made strides in our operational readiness. Our policy administration system is fully built and deployed. The teams have also now taken occupation of our new offices located in London. These essential building blocks are important for a credible, high-performing global underwriting platform that we expect to generate value for us in the long run. While global specialty and reinsurance rates continue to soften, we believe there is still value in the market for very selective, disciplined growth throughout the cycle. In parallel, we have strengthened our international footprint in the Indian subcontinent. We have now established a Tier 2 international insurance office in the international finance tax city of Gujarat. Through Santam Re and our specialist solutions business, we intend to scale up both treaty and facultative reinsurance from this hub in the years to come. It is important to say that we are building for the long term. Our focus remains on establishing a credible, disciplined and globally respected platform that contributes materially to Santam's growth and our diversification ambitions. Now our long targets for 2030 are built on a framework of both financial and nonfinancial metrics, recognizing the need to drive sustainable value creation. The targets are largely unchanged. However, with the strategic progress that we have made on both establishing our Lloyd's syndicate and augmenting our partnerships business through the Multi acquisition. We have adjusted our international diversification target from 20% to 30% of the group's GWP by 2030 and adjusted the policy count target to aim for over 4 million customers, which is a clear signal of our reach and our success in serving a much broader customer base, including previously uninsured segments. I'll now hand over to Wikus to take us through the detailed numbers.

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining me for the results section of our presentation. Overall, the group delivered a strong financial performance in 2025, exceeding our long-term targets for all key performance indicators. Top line growth at 14.7% was well in excess of our nominal GDP plus 1% to 2% target with solid contributions from most businesses. The favorable claims experience that we saw in the first half of the year persisted in the second half, contributing to an underwriting margin of 11.3% for the year, well up on the 7.6% in 2024. This is also well in excess of our 5% to 10% target range despite an increase in the level of prudence built into our reserving base. Investment return on our insurance funds benefited from both a strong investment market performance as well as an outperformance of benchmarks by our asset managers, resulting in a float return of 3% of net earned premiums compared to 2.6% in the prior year. The strong operational performance contributed to a return on capital of 29.2%, again in excess of our 24% hurdle rate. It was slightly lower than 2024 due to foreign currency translation losses and one-off project costs incurred in 2025. Now turning to our top line performance. Gross written premiums increased by 6.4%, which is at the upper end of our target range for top line growth. Broker and Client Solutions contributed solid growth despite the moderation in premium rate increases during the year. MiWay's tied agency and inbound strategies continue to gain traction with the business achieving record new business sales, as also referred to by Tava, and overall growth of 15% in gross written premium, a very good performance in the context of a market that's been growing at much lower rates. This is indicative of MiWay winning market share during the year. Partner Solutions also grew strongly and more than doubled its contribution benefiting from the first-time inclusion of the MultiChoice book of business that we acquired in May 2025. The MTN partnerships continue to perform in line with expectations. And as mentioned by Tava, almost reached a 600,000 policy count mark by the end of the year. Within Specialist Solutions, some casualty lines of business remain subject to competitive pricing at unsustainable rates that we are not prepared to follow. This is also an experience that we had in 2024. We remain focused on profitability and meeting our return on capital target, even if it means softer top line growth in the short term. In addition, corporate property and heavy haulage experienced a softening in rates, in line with global trends. Engineering and Construction recorded low in new business, especially in the rest of Africa. These trends contributed to a marginal decline in Specialist Solutions gross written premiums in the current year. Santam's Re contribution was in line with 2024 and continue to shift from a large number of small treaties to partnership business in 2025. Net earned premium grew by a much stronger 14.7%, impacted by the shift in the premium recognition profile at Santam Re due to the large weighting to its partnership business. With this business now fully in the base, we expect that gross written premium and net earned premium growth should be much more closely aligned going forward. The change in mix of business at Santam Re from individual treaties to large partnership business also resulted in a significant shift of business from the multi engineering and liability classes to property. Excluding Santam Re, most insurance classes achieved good growth. The exception was transportation, which was impacted by the softer pricing in heavy haulage and lower marine new business, and agri, which reflects lower input costs and reduced planting due to weather conditions. The seasonality is a normal feature of our Agri business. From a geographical perspective, non-South African business grew by 13%. Namibia achieved strong growth of 24%, which was supported by the acquisition of the Western Namibia book of business at the beginning of the year. Specialist Solutions experienced a shift in engineering and construction opportunities from the Rest of Africa to other international contributing to the 18.5% decline in the Rest of Africa business volumes and a very strong growth of some 20% in other international. Santam Re also wrote more international business relative to South African accounts in the current year. Santam Syndicate 1918 is expected to contribute strongly to our international growth in the future. Despite the good growth in non-SA business, it still contributes a relatively smaller portion of the group's overall gross written premium, with a 1% shift to 19% in non-SA business. With Syndicate 19 coming online, we expect this shift to accelerate over time. As mentioned by Tava, the syndicate started writing business on 1 January with consortium and facility lines of $40 million committed to date. Just looking at reinsurance, which is a substantial cost to the group with reinsurance earned premium amounting to 16.3% of gross earned premium. It reduced by 4.6% since 2023 with a major contribution from the ongoing optimization of our reinsurance programs, which decreased the reinsurance rate by 1.3% in absolute terms over the last 2 years. Most of this benefit has been used to strengthen the prudence of our reserving base to allow for the increase in our catastrophe retention limit from ZAR 500 million to ZAR 1 billion in 2024. Remainder of the reduction relates to some structural impacts from the change in mix of business at Santam Re and a relatively lower contribution from the Specialist Solutions business to growth and premiums. These latter changes do not have an earnings impact. Now turning to earnings. Net income increased overall by 10% with a strong underwriting and ART performance, partly offset by foreign currency translation differences and some one-off project expenses. The net insurance result increased by a very pleasing 61%. The ART business has also continued to grow strongly at 21%. I will unpack these lines in later slides. Investment return on capital declined by 96%, mainly attributable to foreign currency translation losses of ZAR 1 billion, an impairment of our investment in Pacific & Orient in Malaysia of ZAR 132 million and a ZAR 180 million decline in the constant currency fair value adjustment of our investment in Shriram General Insurance. Allowing for these, investment return was in line with the 2024 experience. Our portfolios remain conservatively invested with fixed interest exposure skewed to the short end. The portfolios, therefore, do not reflect the yield of the JSE bond index. Within foreign country translation losses, ZAR 420 million relate to our investment in Shriram General Insurance in India, following more than 16% strengthening of the rand against the Indian rupee. We have also been building up foreign assets in anticipation of the launch of the Lloyd's Syndicate, with capital requirements will be foreign denominated. We also held foreign capital for the business we write outside of South Africa and Namibia on the Santam license. The strengthening of the rand against the U.S. dollar generated negative foreign currency translation differences on these assets which contributed the bulk of the remaining ForEx differences. The amortization and other line includes some one-off project expenses of ZAR 325 million with most of this relating to the launch of our syndicate and then also cost incurred on the closure of stand-alone digital businesses as we aim to leverage the Sanlam ecosystem going forward. The net insurance result increased by 61%, a combination of 70% growth in underwriting results and a 33% increase in the return on insurance funds. Underwriting margin of 11.3% is in line with the first half performance. Underwriting actions implemented over the past 2 years structurally improved the profitability of our in-force book. A benign attritional claims environment and lower large war-related claims also contributed to the performance. Overall, total weather-related claims reduced by ZAR 600 million compared to the prior year. As mentioned earlier, we strengthened the prudence in our reserving basis to allow for severe claims experience with a confidence level increasing from the 84th to the 91st percentile. The impact on earnings for the year amounted to ZAR 900 million. Good margins were achieved across all insurance classes with a sharp recovery in the property class being sustained. Properties showed a very strong improvement even allowing for the lower level of weather-related claims in 2025. Turning to acquisition costs. The group's total acquisition cost ratio increased by 1.4%. The increase in the commission ratio is largely attributable to a change in mix of business between personal lines, commercial lines and reinsurance. The management expense ratio increased from 16.5% in 2023 to 19% in 2025. Corporate activity added 1% due to the profit sharing arrangements in our partnerships being recognized as management expenses. Strategic initiatives at MiWay and other variable social-related costs added another 2.1%. The strong performance of the group in 2024 and 2025 resulted in an outperformance against our short-term incentive targets with the addition of bonus provisions also increasing the base by 0.7%. These increases were, however, partly offset by a stringent focus on cost efficiencies, which reduced the managed ratio by 1.3%. This slide shows the history of the group's underwriting performance over the past couple of years with a strong performance since 2023. The 2025 underwriting margin is not necessarily sustainable in the context of the increase in the frequency and severity of weather-related catastrophes that we've seen in recent years. Other large losses, in particular, fire is also volatile in nature. This is evident in some normalization already experienced in 2026 with net losses of ZAR 300 million from flooding in the northern part of South Africa and wildfires in the Western Cape in the first 2 months of the year. We, however, expect to meet our 5% to 10% range through the cycle. Our ART businesses continue to track record of strong growth. Administration fee income reflects growth in the size of the underlying book of business under administration. Investment margin, whatsoever, the main contributor to the overall growth, increasing by 31%. This level of revenue is a function of the favorable investment performance in 2025 and is not sustainable should investment returns below in 2026. Return on capital of 29.2% was slightly lower than 2024, but still were above our target. The strong insurance earnings more than offset the negative impact of the foreign currency translation losses, project expenses and the impairment of the investment in P&O. With these items reducing the return from noninsurance earnings to a negative of 2.2% in 2025. Insurance return on capital was the highest in many years. Just from a capital management perspective, the group and all of our core subsidiaries remain very well capitalized with the group solvency ratio in excess of the upper end of our target range. This enabled the Board to approve a 10.7% increase in the final dividend to ZAR 10.90. The total dividend declared in respect of 2025 financial year represents an increase of 10.5%, which is well in excess of inflation of around 3% for the year. This represents meaningful cash flow value creation for our shareholders. We will remain at the upper end of the target range following the dividend declaration, providing a buffer to fund growth in the Santam Syndicate. I will now hand you back to Tava for some closing remarks.

Thank you, Wikus. We've just reviewed the full year results for 2025, which now seems like a long time ago in the current operating context. But I think we've been able to demonstrate that our operational and financial resilience is what the group stands for in a very complex and evolving risk landscape. Our progressive performance is testament to our refreshed strategy. And so before I close with the strategic priorities for 2026, I want to take a moment to highlight the importance of the progress we continue to make on sustainability. For us, this is not peripheral to our business. It is indeed an important pillar to Santam's long-term resilience, our competitive advantage and our commitment to society. Our risk reduction initiatives continue to demonstrate meaningful impact. We also continue to work with peer organizations and firefighting associations, for example, the quick reaction force which is designed to reduce the impact of fires through early detection and responsiveness. This is a real differentiator in a world where systemic climate-related risks are certainly intensifying and it complements our partnership for risk and resilience work that we do with the municipalities across South Africa. Our partnerships with MTN and MultiChoice are allowing us to extend our reach into new markets across South Africa, bringing financial inclusion and risk protection solutions to more households and businesses. Our internal culture remains a cornerstone of our success. We maintained our position as the #1 insurer in the top employer survey and improved our overall ranking to #2 among the top employers across all industries. Our customer experience remains a key commitment from us in terms of fairness and service excellence. Our Net Promoter Score, NPS, has improved to 68, and we continue to enhance customer journeys across all our channels. Now as we look ahead to 2026, the geopolitical and macroeconomic environment certainly remains challenging and very unpredictable. Santam's strategy, leadership depth, capital strength and the multichannel business model ensures that we're not only resilient in the face of volatility but well placed to also capture opportunities as the market continues to evolve. We remain confident in our ability to deliver sustainable long-term value for customers, employees and shareholders. Importantly, our capital position remains strong, and we continue to maintain robust capital buffers and prudence comfortably above internal thresholds, enabling us to absorb market volatility, support growth opportunities and continuing to deliver reliable returns to shareholders. As a group, we're executing with discipline and ambition, we have a clear international growth strategy a credible platform taking shape at Lloyd's and in India. And we have a well-defined set of priorities to sustain growth through 2026 and beyond. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. We will now be happy to take your questions.

Thank you, Tava and Wikus. We'll now take some questions. We've got quite a number of questions. Wikus, I'll be kind to you because most of these questions are coming for you. The first one is from Senamile from SBG Securities. Can you give us some more detail on the growth and GWP of the property portfolio? Is it purely a result of shift from other business? Or is it made up of new business?

It's a combination, and thanks for the question. So as I mentioned, the shift in business within Santam Re from individual treaties to partnerships did contribute a sizable portion of that growth. What's also coming through within the property insurance class is the first time inclusion of the MultiChoice device insurance book. But excluding those, the underlying growth within property was also very solid, in line with the motor book.

Good. Following up with Baron Nkomo from JP Morgan. Please comment on how profitable is the property book and how that compares to 2024.

If I exclude the ZAR 600 million lower or adjust for the ZAR 600 million lower weather-related claims against the property portfolio, it still showed a significant increase in profitability from the prior year. And we are now at that level where it is actually meeting its return on capital target. You may recall in prior results announcement, we did mention the improvement, but that we're not fully yet at the desired level. But we've now reached that point.

And I think maybe in addition because I think it's fair to say that the profitability that we're seeing on the property book has been several years in the making. And it is a combination of, again, several factors, particularly within the selection and underwriting process that we're driving within that book. We've spoken at length about our geo coding capability, which gives us much more granular data and understanding of the underlying risks. And then I think we've also been able to bring this great strength through on that property book on a selective basis. And then I think last but not least, also working with clients around risk mitigation capabilities, in sprinkler systems, ensuring electricity compliance within the DB boxes. And so it really has been the combination of many, many factors that has improved the profitability on that book. And I think we are quite pleased that the property book is now within the target range. But I think as you say, we've also benefited from some tailwinds of really benign weather activity in 2025, which we don't expect to repeat. And in fact, we're already seeing the flooding coming through in Pumalanga and Limpopo, we've seen significant dry weather in the Western Cape with fires coming through. So we are starting to see a bit of a normalization from a claims point of view.

Thank you, Tava. Wikus, I've got 2 questions. When I take a question at a time is Michael Christelis from UBS. Please elaborate on the rationale of writing P&O down to nil. Wikus?

Michael, thanks for the question. So the P&O business has really been underperforming now for quite a number of years. And in finalizing our end results. As usual, we always look from a valuation perspective of what's the prospects for the business. And we didn't really see a significant turnaround that will come through within the medium term. So we decided to rather impair the investment fully at the year end.

And Wikus, the second question is what is the outlook for float returns on conventional? That is what is the execute on the portfolio?

Sorry, the outlook for?

For float returns and conventional.

Yes, definitely not at the level that we've seen in 2025 because as I mentioned, the combination of very strong fixed interest returns during the year with bond yields coming down. And then also our asset manager significantly outperformed the benchmarks for the portfolio. So at 3%, it's definitely at the very high end. Our normal expectation over time is to be more in the region of 2.2% to 2.4% type of level.

Okay. Thank you, Wikus. And then Thapelo Mokonyane from Investec. Does the weather continue to be supportive? Have we seen more normal weather patterns please speak to what you've seen towards the latter part of last year and beginning of this trading period. I think Wikus, we have responded to that question. If I can move forward to Francois Du Toit of Anchor Stockbrokers. Other operating expenses in the other segment increased from ZAR 100 million to ZAR 508 million. What is included in these costs? And where do you expect this cost to get to in 2026? And what's the long-term outlook?

I think if you look at that specific line item, there were the one-off cost of ZAR 325 million that I mentioned with most of that relating to the start-up of the Lloyd's Syndicate. Fortunately, anything you're spending in pounds is much more in ZAR in the end. And then we also incurred some costs in closing digital businesses. What's also included in there is the amortization of intangible assets on prior M&A activity. There's also our contribution to redevelopment or revamping of the Sanlam loyalty schemes and some other ad hoc project-related costs. But the big reason for the increase was the project costs, which shouldn't repeat in 2026.

Thank you, Wikus. Francois again, the question relates to the level of prudence that you've mentioned earlier on Wikus. Can you quantify what is the size of the catastrophe provision for Santam and how does this compare to 2024 levels?

I think we speak more about the overall level of prudence within the reserves. And I did mention for the current year, the increase in the prudency from the 84th to the 91st percentile amounted to an earnings impact of ZAR 900 million. And that additional prudency allows for significant adverse potential experience coming forward or going forward. But we always will remain, of course, within the risk appetite range set by the Board.

Yes. And I think what I'll just maybe add to that Wikus, is that in 2024, I think most of you will remember that we did increase our retention on our reinsurance program up to ZAR 1 billion. And so I think it is appropriate that we increase our prudence in line with that, notwithstanding what we're seeing from a normalization of claims activity and also just the broader macroeconomic environment that we now find ourselves going into 2026.

Thank you, Tava. A question from Hanna from Granate Asset Management. Hanna thank you for congratulations. Just to your question, I think Tava you can take this and maybe Wikus, you can come in as well. The return on capital remains impressively high despite the strong balance sheet. Is there any change in the thinking around the ROE target? Do you regard 24% more as a stretch or sustainable ROE?

No, I think it's a fair question, and I think we've received that question historically I think when looking at our 2030 targets, we do take into account the performance of the business throughout the cycle. I think we are currently in a period where we are seeing a hardening of rates. We're now seeing rates starting to come down. And so I think we can expect that through the cycle, as we've said, the margin is in that 5% to 10% range. So we do still think that at 24%, given the underlying volatility within our short-term business, that still, from our perspective, remains appropriate. And I think you can see the quality of earnings shifting more to an underwriting result and less from an investment result and particularly in 2024. If you go back several years, you'll see again that, that mix was slightly different. But I think the cumulative total has allowed us to always achieve that 24% hurdle return, particularly in recent history. Wikus, I don't know if you want to add to that.

I think maybe just to add to that is, firstly, we spoke about the high level of investment return on insurance funds, which we do expect will normalize. So that will result in some softening. And then also, we -- the launch of the Santam Syndicate in this year, we do expect it to run a J curve and to contribute operating losses in the near term. And only in the medium term, we expect it to reach our return on capital target. So that will also be negative impact on return on capital going forward. So taking all of that into account, we do think that 24% is still appropriate.

And then I think maybe just to add, you did mention the J-curve on the underwriting syndicate. I think it's important to say that, that a huge contributor to that is just the timing of the flow of business over the next 18 months. You don't acquire the full ZAR 300 million on day 1. And so we expect that to be spread through and so you will experience a J curve coming through in the second year. But we then do expect the business to move to profitability thereafter.

Just maybe following up on the syndicated question. Still from Hanna. Do we understand correctly that the bulk of the first year business return of risk already on Santam's book? Will this change the consolidated revenue and profit recognition for the group. Wikus.

Yes. I think what we refer to is the $40 million of incremental new lines that we've already concluded. And that was part of the 1st of January renewal cycle. But of course, we will be writing further business during the year. So it doesn't really represent the full GWP that we will write during 2026. But as Tava also mentioned is the business will come in during the course of the year. And then typically, you have got a 2-year recognition period for that revenue as well. So there will be a significant revenue drag, especially in the first 2 or 3 years of the Syndicate.

Thank you Wikus, I still have some questions here, but I do want to go to online, see if any calls from ChorusCall?

We have a question from Warwick Bam of RMB Morgan Stanley.

Well done on a remarkable underwriting performance. Two primary questions from my side. Just in terms of reinsurance retention levels, are you still comfortable with the level that you've got? Or if we see even further softening in global reinsurance pricing, will you take the opportunity to reduce your retention levels? And then just a second question, just elaborating a little bit on your costs. I mean you spoke about the Syndicate 918 project costs being one-off and unlikely to repeat certainly in the same quantum, but then you're also speaking about a J-curve. I mean, just give us a sense of the offset there in terms of the trajectory for net acquisition costs in 2026.

Thank you very much, Warwick. I'll start with the reinsurance figures. So yes, we are comfortable with the retention that we are currently holding across the group cat program. I think historically, I think we saw that there was a need for us to optimize the reinsurance program across the entire group. So we do use maybe just for context, again reinsurance to manage volatility but also has a significant capital tool. But I think it's also important to say that given the strength of the underwriting and this turnaround that we've seen in the property book, we do believe that the reinsurance coverage is at the right level so that we're not giving away value into the reinsurance space. And then I think, coupled with the prudence that we are bringing through across the business. I think the reinsurance level does remain relevant. However, this does remain an area that we are continually optimizing and looking opportunistically to further optimize the reinsurance program to both reduce risk, reduce volatility within the underlying business, taking into account the cost of reinsurance itself. But I think as you've highlighted with reinsurance rates softening significantly, the optimization of this program remains something that stays on the card. And I think what Wikus showed earlier on with just the usage of reinsurance reflects the usage or rather the efficient use of reinsurance within our business.

And maybe I'll deal with the second question. So yes, I mentioned the one-off project-related costs. So that's on that other line. Now that the syndicate is moving into BAU, It, of course, starts incurring its normal operating expenses, which you need to expense as you incur them. But then as Tava also mentioned, due to the delayed revenue recognition, there will be a net underwriting loss coming through on the writing results line. Now the quantum of that at this stage, we expect it to be around ZAR 300 million for the year. But it will be very much dependent on the timing and the volume of the business that we write in the current year. The typical dynamic you see from any start of business essentially.

Thank you, Wikus. Operator, do you have another call?

We have a question from Harry Botha of Bank of America Securities.

Well done on the underwriting results as well. Can you please give us some more insights into the SA Personal Lines performance, excluding Santam Re? Is it possible to quantify the strong motor GWP growth that you noted? And what is pricing discipline like in Personal Lines? And then finally, just in terms of the shareholder portfolio, how should we think about '26 returns? Is it really about currency movements and short-term rates? Is there any likelihood of a change in asset mix in the shareholder portfolio?

So maybe Wikus, just to make it easy for you, I'll do one question at a time. One is, is it possible to give a view of growth in SA, especially in personal lines, excluding SantamRe?

Yes. I think from a personal lines perspective, we did see a very robust growth which is a combination of strong growth within the broker or intermediated lines. But then within our direct businesses, we saw very strong growth. And we indicated that MiWay increased by 15% overall with Business Insurance and the value-added services product growing very strongly, but in personal lines, importantly, more than doubling on the growth that we saw in the prior year. So really strong growth, but then also from an underwriting perspective, also a very solid margins on personal lines.

Yes. I think maybe just to add to that, which is why I think the question was probably going is, are we also seeing intensified competition, particularly in the motor space, I think it is fair to say that I think most insurers have been fairly disciplined, I think given some of the historic losses and challenges within the motor space. And so I think what we are seeing in the later part of 2025 is certainly intensified competition. I think we're seeing it more in the direct space coming through. But despite that intensified competition, we have seen MiWay increase its growth and increase its unit count from a policyholder perspective. And so that means that, that business is gaining market share. And I think that's, as we've said early on, the combination of several factors, but we are seeing increased stickiness on the Micash program, we are seeing the average value per premium also increased. And so we are winning, particularly in that space. But I think it is fair to say that is a space where there is certainly increased competition. But I think most insurers have maintained a level of discipline, I think, focusing on underwriting rather than simply growing unit count.

Then Harry, your question around pricing discipline has been responded to. But the question you have is around the returns on shareholder portfolio. Can you provide some color how you think about this moving forward?

I think, first of all, we, at this stage, not planning any significant change in our asset allocation. So we mentioned before that we sold all of the equities out of the South African portfolios. And we will maintain that positioning going forward. Within the fixed interest exposure, it's important the comment I made that we are very prudent in how we allocate it to specific assets, and we skew the portfolio towards the shorter end. And therefore, you can't expect returns aligned with the JSE All Bond Index. From a currency perspective, at the end of the year with syndicate coming online, we have transferred ZAR 2.2 billion of capital into the syndicate. The syndicate will be classified as a foreign operation on the accounting rules, which means that the ForEx movements on that capital will, in the future, go directly to equity and not through earnings as we experienced in 2025. So there should be a much lower earnings impact from ForEx movements going forward if the rand moves similar to what it's done in the current year.

Thank you, Wikus. Operator, any questions on the line?

I have no further questions on the conference call.

Thank you so much. I'll now return to the questions I have. One from Marius Strydom from Austin Laurence. Marius, Thank you so much for your congratulation messages. The question that you do have is how large is the capital? How large is the cap within the ART? And what would be the impact once this is transferred? And would that happen in 2026?

Yes, Marius, thanks for the question. We're not disclosing the specific amount, but we do expect the in-force book to move during the current year, probably more in the second half of the year. So you will see an impact in 2026, but then also within 2027. But the more important factor is actually the investment margin that I referred to that is not necessarily sustainable. So from a guidance perspective, I think if you look at 2024, that's probably a more sustainable base going forward with growth from there onwards.

So also just mindful of the time. Marius, your question around what is long-term MiWay underwriting margin target. I think we have historically given that we expect that to be in double digits. So that's the answer there.

I mean, I think maybe just to complement that answer. I think Marius, I think what you're seeing coming through is very strong growth top line in MiWay, the maintenance of that underlying margin. But I think you're also seeing an uptick in the expense ratio coming through in MiWay. And so you can see that we are making concerted efforts to invest within that MiWay business. We are increasing our investment, particularly in the business insurance alongside just the marketing and capability within the personal lines part of the business. And so we do expect to continue to invest, make measured investment in that part of the business to bring that business to scale in both personal lines and in business insurance so that it is a credible competitor within the direct space. I think we are pleased that the metrics are certainly moving in the right direction that, that business is gaining market share and traction.

Good. Thank you, Tava. Also, as I mentioned earlier, I am mindful of the time. What I'm going to try and do is combine number of questions that are coming from different people, but it's one question, which one is around Jane Gomes from Nolands Capital is asking a question around a sense of incremental new business we expect to write in Lloyd's Syndicate for the full year. And the response, I think even last year when we went to the market, we've given a comment to say, we do expect at least 40% of it to be incremental new business from that perspective. And maybe related to that, Wikus, a question from Marius is what do you expect the specialist GWP contribution to the Santam 1918 to be in 2027? Will it exceed the 60% initial guidance that you've given?

In 2027?

2027.

Okay. So I think the guidance that we've given and the rationale for it is that we would take part of our existing Specialist business and inject that into the syndicate. And the simple rationale for that is that we wanted to create a syndicate that has scale and relevance from day 1. And so of the underwriting stand capacity approved by Lloyd's, we did say that we expect this split to be roughly 60%, 40% in 2026. And of course, as we write increment our new business within the syndicate outside of our current Specialist existing business, we would then expect that mix of business to start moving in favor of the new business as we saw head into 2027. But I think with that said, it is a very measured incremental growth, given market condition a softening we are seeing in rates. I think typically, we see that the combined ratios within Lloyd's through the cycle exhibit a huge amount of variability. And so our expectation is that we will continue to be very disciplined. We're simply not chasing top line growth. We remain committed to driving underwriting performance that meets our return on capital as key underpin of the international expansion strategy. So it's not our top line strategy. I think what we're looking for here is incremental value in terms of profitability to the business.

Thanks, Tava. I'll take one question. Most of the questions will deal with them on the one-on-ones that we have here. One from Jakus Colts, Rainier Investment. How does the current war in the Middle East influence your investment in the Lloyd's Syndicate, if anything? Maybe just to further give a proviso or qualification. For example, if the U.S. provides insurance to ships in the Middle East during war, surely, they are not going to give this business back when things do settle. The economic coverage ratio of 169 exceeds, maybe it's a different question. Let's start first question around.

Yes. I mean I think it's a fair question with where I think most institutions find themselves at this particular point in history. And I think it's important to say that traditionally, insurance has been a defensive play. I think it responds very well to adverse events softening and hardening. And so I think more specifically to your question, I think there are several factors more immediate and much more longer term. I think we start with the immediate, which is where I think the basis of your question is referring to. I think if you look at just the Lloyd's numbers, there's a $60 billion market. The proportion of marine that's sitting within that is 10%, roughly 10%. And then the war aspects of that would be an even smaller proportion. And so this would not be simply a Lloyd's impact, the market is much bigger outside of Lloyd's. And so it's a much bigger insurance question that you would be particularly referring to. And then I think more specifically, we've seen the response within Lloyd's that the marine and war rates have hardened significantly within the short space over the last month to month or so. And so I think, again, showing that it's the pricing that's responding very aggressively to price in the risks that we are seeing currently emanating from the current conflict. But I think maybe just turning further to just a much, much broader macroeconomic factors that we see on our business. And so we did talk a lot about improving conditions and a more optimistic outlook as we sort of came out of 2025 and you can see that the business is reflecting that benign claims experience. I think one key aspect, which historically, you'll be aware of is that we are acutely keeping a very close eye on claims inflation. So claims inflation, and you'll see claims inflation don't necessarily move together. I think claims inflation is quite linked to how the rand is performing, it is linked to our supply chains, are responding to the current conflict. And I think within our business, as we've said, it is a fairly defensive play. Within the value chain, we have contracts that give us some level of protection for up to 12 months. And so we would have time to react and to respond to any adverse changes we are seeing coming through on currency and any adverse changes we're seeing, particularly coming on the supply chain. So I think we see our business as fairly defensive and able to respond and price accordingly to any adverse shocks that may be coming through.

Thank you, Tava. I'll just take one more question before we close. First of all, I just want to say thank you all for your questions that you've given us as well. We will respond to some of those as we engage with you over the next few days. We got just one last question. The economic capital coverage ratio of 169 exceeds your internal target. Why not declare the special dividend?

You're right. We are exceeding the upper end of the target range. Post the dividend declaration, we will move back into the target range, but albeit at the higher end of the range. But the decision that we've made is that we don't want to be in a position where the growth prospects for Lloyd's turns out much better than what we planned for, and then we don't have the capital to back that growth. So we'd rather retain a buffer in support of the Lloyd's opportunity.

Thank you, Wikus. Maybe Tava, for closing remarks?

No. Firstly, a very big thank you to everybody online to the investors, the analysts, again, for your support and certainly, for all your questions. I think we do realize that it is a difficult time to be talking about the performance in 2025, given the current market conditions. But I think I'd like to leave you with just a few thoughts. I think insurance typically responds very well to adverse conditions. I think it's the uncertainty in our environment, which is what insurance is really built to do and protect customers and policyholders through that uncertainty and through that adversity. I think the nature and makeup of our business is sufficiently diversified. And I think that gives us some level of protection and allows us to be defensive even in difficult macro conditions. And so our long-term targets as far as we see, do remain appropriate. There will be volatility in the short run, whether it be from weather or broader macroeconomic factors that we will need to take into account. But otherwise, thank you very much for joining us this morning, and wishing you a lovely day further ahead.