Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (2010) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, this is [indiscernible]. I will be your moderator for SABIC's Earnings Call for the Second Quarter of 2023. I would like to welcome you all and wish you all the best. Today's call will be led by SABIC's CEO; Abdulrahman Bin Al-Fageeh, joined by our CFO, Mr. Salah Al-Hareky; and our IRO, Mr. Moneef Almoneef. Now please allow me to hand over the call to our IRO, to you, Moneef. Please go ahead.

Thank you, [indiscernible]. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us today. I would like you to note that any statements with during this call, relating to matters that are not historical facts may be forward-looking statements. These statements are based upon assumptions of the management, which are believed to be reasonable at the time made and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. The actual results could differ materially from those forward-looking statements. Please refer to the statements in the presentation slides and our financial reports, which are available at the company website, sabic.com. Please be aware that our listed companies, namely SABIC Agri-Nutrients, Yansab and Saudi Kayan will be conducting Analyst Call during the upcoming weeks, whereby you will be receiving the invitations shortly. During those engagements, participants will have the opportunity to engage and discuss the company's performance and all other questions related. With that, I will now hand it over to our company's CEO, Mr. Abdulrahman Bin Al-Fageeh.

Thank you, Moneef. Ladies and gentlemen, I hope that you and your families are keeping healthy and safe. In this earnings call, we will shed light on SABIC performance during the quarter 2 and also, the market overview. With the revenues of USD 9.9 billion, we have generated an EBITDA of USD 1.4 billion and reported an income of USD 314 million in the second quarter of this year. EBITDA margin has been improved in this quarter due to the decrease in feedstock prices, and it will be covered later by Salah, our CFO. We are proud to see recent reaffirmation of the SABIC as a constituent company of the FTSE4Good Index Series for the fourth year, which demonstrates our strong commitment to environment, social and governance practices, maintaining our position on ESG indices, gives visibility to our ESG footprints, enhances reputation and branding, and helps attract ESG long-term quality investors. Next slide. I'm pleased to talk about SABIC commitments to innovation and sustainability. There are two of the driving forces behind our growth and our ability to deliver sustainable solutions to our customers. We recently completed for the first time in the Middle East and North Africa. The conversion of oil derived from plastic waste into a certified circular polymer in the cooperation with Saudi Aramco and TotalEnergies. We also committed to securing a key innovation partnership that will help us advance the circular economy. This past quarter, we signed an agreement, along with global chemical companies and the [ renewed ] Dutch innovation organization, TNO, which will host an R&D hub to make significant progress towards plastic waste processing. We will be working together to advance mechanical and chemical recycling routes to find new ways to drive net zero solutions. In addition, we recently opened a new European pipe innovation center in Geleen, Holland (sic) [ The Netherlands ]. We will be able to develop customized pipe materials, test them and validate them, more quickly and efficiently. The facility will enable us to collaborate closely with European pipe manufacturer and will help us to meet the growing demand for sustainable pipe solutions in Europe. Also last quarter, we shipped two successful each 5,000 metric ton of the first certified commercial shipment of low-carbon ammonia to India and Taiwan. This underscores our commitment to be carbon neutral by 2050. We strive to be a leading player in the low carbon ammonia market, with a strong determination to expand our reach. Furthermore, we are also proud to sponsor the young innovative talent at the International Science and Engineering Fair 2023, ISEF. The achievement of the young Saudi talent demonstrates the Kingdom's competitive advantage in science and innovation. Lastly, we are honored to have been awarded the 2023 sustainable -- or Sustainability Leadership Award for Exemplary Achievements in Circularity by the American Chemistry Council. This award recognizes our pioneering efforts to integrate the ocean-bound plastic, OBP, into the circular economy and to collaborate closely with our value chain. I'm confident that our commitment to innovation and sustainability will continue to drive our growth and success in the years to come. With that, I hand over to Salah to shed light in our market overview and the financial performance. Salah, please?

Thank you, Abdulrahman, and a warm welcome to our second quarter earnings call. I'm happy to introduce to you our latest financial results. Before we start that, let me walk you through macroeconomic highlights during Q2 2023. The global economy started the year without significant positive momentum in the global chemistry -- chemical industry. Global GDP grew slightly compared to the previous quarter, driven by the service sector, primarily in China. [ Inflation ] responded to tightening lending policies, but still persists on a high level and continues to weaken consumer purchasing power. Rising interest rates and generally high uncertainty is still slowing down investment, affecting the manufacturing sector adversely. As a consequence, we still observed weak demand globally in our target market with uncertainties going into second half of the year. Oil prices dropped by 4% to $78 per barrel in the backdrop of economic concerns. Moving into feedstock prices. Naphtha prices decreased by 13% due to lower petrochemicals operating rate in Europe and turnaround season in China. Natural gas prices reduced by 38% in Europe and 21% in the U.S. due to lower consumption, mild weather and stronger renewable power generation. Slide 6, please. We will illustrate the global demand trend we are seeing in the key industry for SABIC. Demand in Q2 quarter-over-quarter was flat in majority of the sectors, while it was slightly improved in food, beverages and automotive and pharmaceuticals. As a trend, we are expecting moderated improvement in food and beverages, building and construction, agriculture and consumer goods sectors driven by lower inflation in the back of lower energy prices. However, the sector is expecting to be flat. Slide 7. This slide shows the movement in market reference prices of our key petrochemical project in key regions quarter-over-quarter in orange and year-over-year in blue. The visual in the graph alone implies downward in the market across product and region associated with high inflation and innovated interest rate along with low demand and higher supply globally. Let us start with MEG. We have noticed prices decreased by 10% globally as a result of higher supply and new capacity, despite improvement in polyester fiber demand in China and improved polyester PET demand globally. Methane oil prices decreased by 18% globally, driven mainly by higher supply, especially in the U.S. attributed to the competitive natural gas prices. However, demand improved from key applications such as methanol to olefins. For MTBE, prices globally decreased by 6%, except for China, where it increased by 7% as the gasoline demand continued to improve. All polymers products declined on average of 7%, driven mainly by lower demand globally, although demand had improved in automotive and passenger vehicles. Talking especially about PE. We have noticed lower manufacturing orders in China and lower buying appetite in Europe. In addition, new capacities. If we move to Slide 8, the slide reflects the integrated spread of petrochemical benchmark prices over primary feedstock cost of our key products in key regions, explaining short-term market dynamics. You will notice that charts are illustrating historical data since full year of 2021 till this quarter. In the second quarter, lower naphtha, propane and natural gas prices improved spread marginally for all products, and China spread of MEG turned to positive. In Europe, spread of methanol still negative but trending to positive direction. Moving on to Slide 9. Our financial results reflect the global chemical market condition, which continue to decline in the global macroeconomic demand and increased supply for most of the company project. Starting with our top line compared to prior quarter, sales revenue decrease approximately 6% or roughly $670 million to $9.9 billion. The average selling price declined by 7% quarter-over-quarter. Overall, average selling price affected heavily by the decline in Agri-Nutrients product, prices would decrease by 35% quarter-over-quarter. Global SABIC sales volume was flat quarter-over-quarter. Petrochemical sales volume decreased only by 4%, while Agri-Nutrients sales volume increased by 38%. You can see in the table, EBITDA margin was stabilized at the level of 14% in Q2 2023, supported by the company effort to lower average cost of sales by 70% (sic) [ 7% ] and lower selling and distribution expenses by 4%. In addition, an incremental realization from synergy with Saudi Aramco of around $130 million. During the first quarter, we further optimized our working capital through reducing our inventory to generate positive impact on our free cash flow by approximately $400 million in the second quarter of 2023. Free cash flow was reduced for the payment of [indiscernible] and income tax around an amount of $660 million. During the second quarter, our integral joint venture contributed positively to our net income by $38 million in addition to favorable finance income for the valuation of option right in our joint venture agreement. Accordingly, net income increased by 79%, reaching to $314 million second quarter. For the half year comparison, the decline in the prices decreased our revenue by 29%, this is primarily driven by continuous slowdown in the global economy as a result of tightening global monetary policy to counter global information. Scheduled maintenance activity reduced sales volume by 4%. Therefore, EBITDA margin reached 31% level despite lower average cost of sales by 18% and setting and distribution expenses by 32%. The nonintegral joint venture and the associate company decreased by $550 million compared to the first half 2022. Net income decreased by 78% (sic) [ 87% ], reaching $491 million first half. Before I move to discuss segment financial results, I would like to highlight that we remain focused on further optimization of our working capital and cost reductions. Moving into segment financial results, starting with Petrochemicals. Average selling price and the petrochemical business showed declined by 3%. The EBITDA in our petrochemicals and specialty business in Q2 2023, has improved by 8%, reaching to $1.1 billion. EBITDA margin at -- was at 70% higher than EBITDA margin achieved in the previous quarter of [indiscernible]. The improvement was largely driven by lower feedstock prices and lower selling and distribution cost versus prior quarter. Moving over to Slide 11, Agri-Nutrients business. Sales volume increased by 38%, largely due to a return of production to normal level after the planned turnaround in Q1. In our Agri-Nutrients segment, Q2 EBITDA of $233 million was 22% lower than the prior quarter, primarily driven by the lower average selling price with decline by 35%, mainly attributed to seasonal effect, oversupply and stagnant demand. Moving on Slide 12. Our metal business reported a negative EBITDA of $5 million in Q2 quarter-to-quarter. This was due to lower sales volume on the back of the complex turnaround and lower demand. In general, local steel market is facing a tough competition and high inventory. Therefore, prices have been impacted in an effort to reduce inventory level. With that, I will hand it over back to Abdulrahman.

Thank you, Salah. Looking ahead, we expect an average global GDP growth rate of 2.4% for the total year of 2023. And we continue to execute our strategic priorities for the year. Value creation, synergy benefits with parent company, Saudi Aramco and progress on our growth strategy despite the challenging global market. We remain disciplined in managing our CapEx, and we estimate this year that our CapEx between $3.3 billion to $3.8 billion spent for the total year. Thank you very much, and back to you, [indiscernible], for the question and answers.

[Operator Instructions] We have a question from Prateek from HSBC.

I have two. The first one is on your benefit, you got in your net income from the positive valuation of option rights in your JV, could you quantify it, what was the magnitude of the benefit you got from that? That's the first question. Second question I have is on the volumes in your petrochemical business, right? In the previous quarter, quarter 1, both Kayan and Yansab were shut, right? They were maintaining shutdowns. In this quarter, they were both operational, but still the volumes were down 4%. Could you help us understand, why were the volumes down, the factors driving that?

Thank you, Prateek. I think your second question is very clear. And I think we got it, and we can answer. The first question, I'm not sure. Did you get it, Salah?

Yes.

Okay. Salah can...

Okay. So Prateek, thank you very much for your question. And I'll -- actually, the impact on the derivative option valuation on our assets was around SAR 630 million. Of course, this is nonrecurring event, but we have -- we do our evaluation of our options on these joint ventures. So for this quarter, it was a positive around SAR 630 million.

Okay. As far as the volume decrease in sales in the second quarter versus the quarter 1. And as you rightly mentioned, Prateek, that most of the turnaround that happened in the Q1. I can tell you that we have an aggressive sales in the first quarter, and we sell below our target inventory for the finished products. However, there are also some impact from the MTBE sales, for example, which is, I mean, off-season and impacted the sales. Just to be aware that, I mean, the targeted inventory for the company is maintained at a level that we secure the reliability for our supply to our customers and to our business partners around the world. So it's a matter of inventory management for the finished products. And I can assure you that in the third quarter with some improvement in some of the demand for some of our segments, this is going to be recovered very soon.

We have another question from Ricardo from Morgan Stanley.

A couple of questions on my side. The first one, when you mentioned that margins continue to be under pressure in the third quarter, how would that be compared to the levels that you've seen on the second quarter? And then the second question is, if you could please provide us some more color on how you're seeing the Chinese demand for petrochemicals, and if you had to compare the outlook for petrochemicals compared to the fertilizers.

Yes. I understand the first question, which is the continuation of the pressure. Let me just clarify here. In our statements, we have said, I mean, the global economy will continue to be under pressure in a way that it has not been recovered the way that was expected after the COVID-19. So with this slowness in the recovery for the global economy, you will see that there is a direct impact into the demand for the petrochemical. Having said this, the beauty that we have in SABIC, which is the differentiation in our portfolio that really helped the company that could mitigate some of this pressure that is going to be continued because of the global economy. I'm not sure about the second question.

Maybe can you repeat it, please, Ricardo, the second question?

The comparison could not...

Ricardo, can you please repeat the second part of the question?

Yes. Sorry, I was muted. So on the second part of the question, if you could give us a color on how you're seeing the Chinese demand for the petrochemical segment and then also a comparison on how your -- the perspectives for the rest of the year for chemicals compared to the agri business?

If I understand your question correctly, Ricardo, some of the segments in the petrochemicals such as the packaging, specifically for the food and beverages and also, the automotive, and some of the segments goes to the [ pharmaceutical ]. We have seen that there is some improvement -- little improvement, let me put it this way, little improvement during the Q1 in terms of its demand in China and outside China. Still, the automotive industry is still under pressure due to the lack of the semiconductors and also, the impact also from the global economy itself. Our view is in the third quarter that pressure in some of these segments may be relieved slightly, slightly but not all of it. So we are hoping and we are optimistic that there is some demand that can be increased and also due to seasonability. Like for example, the Agri-Nutrients demand and the fertilizer demand that have a season in Asia that's going to be started, that may help and stimulate the demand to be improved.

We have another question from Sashank from Bank of America. We will take the next question from Alex Comer from JPMorgan.

Feedstock prices have been continued to decrease along with product prices. I just wonder, where was your margin in July versus the second quarter? So in other words, you talked about margins under pressure. I'm just wondering where were you in July, given those dynamics? And my second question is, with Aramco coming back on production, I'm just wondering whether or not you foresee any situation where you might have issues with feedstock supply.

Okay. If I start with the first one is where are we in July. Normally, we're making the assessments for the full quarter. So hopefully, the third quarter of this year, I have an indication that we may see some improvement in some of the segments for petrochemical demand. And the second question related to the Aramco production. I just want to clarify one point. I mean SABIC is a global company that have a global footprint around the world, our production facilities in Saudi Arabia and Europe and Americas as well as in China and some other countries around the world for our compounding facilities. And we secure our feedstock for all this. And I can tell you for the past 40 years, Saudi Aramco demonstrated to be a very reliable supply for our feedstock, regardless of the level of the production that they announced. And they can -- we are counting on Saudi Aramco for providing the required feedstock for the company.

Now we'll go back again to Sashank.

Yes, can you hear me now?

Yes.

So I have two questions. One is related to your European business. I think in the first quarter, you mentioned the EBITDA was negative. So I just wanted to understand how the [ SABIC ] business did in the second quarter. And just longer term, what's your outlook for the business in Europe given the structural cost disadvantage we're seeing? That's the first question. The second question is, again, just in terms of demand, we've seen some of your competitors or peers rather talk about the order book picking up, demand picking up. You did mention some of the segments, but I'm just wondering in terms of geographies where you think demand has been -- is relatively more stable or solid versus some of the other geographies. If you could compare that, that will be helpful.

Yes. Thank you, Sashank. I will go for the second question, demand. And Salah can take the Europe one. For the demand geographically and with different segments, we can see the demand that there is a science, let me put it this way, because we have not seen this in the ground yet. There is a sign that there is some signs that could improve the demand in some of the segments in the petrochemicals in China and Southeast Asia and USA as well as the Middle East. Probably Europe is not yet at the same level that we can be optimistic to have a better demand.

Okay. So let me take the -- I think, the first part or the second part of the question regarding the European. I think maybe before answering that actually the question, I would like to just highlight something very important. SABIC is a very global company. Our footprint and our plan is to be in the market where we actually provide value to our shareholders. Now we've actually seen some improvement in the European market, and this is driven by the [ newest ] utilization cost. So I think there is a positive -- slightly positive outlook for Europe.

Next question, we'll take a question from Faisal Al Azmeh from Goldman Sachs.

Congratulations on the numbers. Just two questions from my end. The first is on dividends. I'm just -- when considering the changes that has taken place with some of your affiliates and your parent company in terms of having or formulating a dividend policy that is linked to performance, is this something that SABIC is also planning to do? We've seen Aramco to something similar and another affiliate company, one of other Aramco subsidiaries recently announced something similar. Is the company considering having a dividend policy that is linked to free cash flows or that is linked to performance over time? Or is this something that is currently not being discussed. That's my first question. And just generally, my second question, as we think about cost efficiencies and the potential to extract more or to reduce costs over the coming years, maybe if you can shed some color on the areas that you can tack it and maybe potentially, the magnitude that could effectively be achieved over the next 2 years. That would be helpful.

Thank you very much, Faisal. I can tell you that our dividend policy has not been changed yet, and it will continue to have a stagnant and improved dividends to our shareholders. And then the second question on the cost efficiency, as you may see, always we have a lot of initiatives driven by our people in the company to make sure that we always have a discipline in our spending both, in the fixed cash cost as well as in the capital cost. We have demonstrated over many, many years that the plans and budgets that the company put in place that always cater for the global economy and making sure that we have the best and most efficient cost efficiency in order to deliver to our customers and to our business partners around the world with a very reliable products, and not only products, but also innovative solutions that help the growth of our customers.

We'll take a final question from the chat. Faisal asks: What is SABIC expectation for the business outlook in Q3 and Q4, and did the trend go up or down?

What's that?

What is SABIC's expectation for the business outlook in Q3 and Q4? Do you see the trend going up or down?

Yes. We will continue, I think, in the second half of the year in terms of delivering our material and also producing from our facility, I think, with the same. The beauty of SABIC with the diversified portfolio that make us a robust producer and marketer for the petrochemical and the Agri-Nutrients product. And we will continue with our plan as is.

We have a final question from Oliver from Citibank.

To finish off, we've talked a little bit about demand. Obviously, there's a lot of supply on some of your key products, and the pet-chem space has been coming on this year. What's your outlook for that supply to the second half of the year? Is there any signs that, that will sort of tail off a little bit to help with the supply and demand balance?

Thank you, Oliver. I think the supply from our production facilities will be improved. And this is at least the plan that we are planning to do due to the fact that most of the turnarounds for our facilities that been taking care in the first half of this year, mainly in the first quarter. So we are foreseeing that there is improvement in our production as well as our sales quantity.

Thank you all for your valuable questions. Finally, in the last slide, you will see our upcoming engagements in the mentioned conferences, whereby we look forward to engage with you and continue the dialogue. Moreover, we stay at your disposal for any inquiry or clarification you may have at any time through our open channel displayed in the slide. Thank you all for attending SABIC's earnings call for the second quarter of 2023. We will be -- we will now be adjourning the call, wishing you all the best.