Scentre Group (SCG) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
August 24, 2020
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorLadies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the Scentre Group 2020 Half Year Results Update. [Operator Instructions] Please note that today's conference is being recorded, Tuesday, the 25th of August 2020 at 9 a.m. Australian Eastern Standard Time. I would now like to hand the conference over to your host today, Mr. Peter Allen. Thank you, sir. Please go ahead.
Peter Allen
executiveGood morning, everyone. Welcome to Scentre Group's results briefing for the half year. I'm joined today on the call by our Chief Financial Officer, Elliott Rusanow. The pandemic has reinforced and confirmed that our purpose, our strategy and our values are more relevant than ever. Our purpose is creating extraordinary places, connecting and enriching communities. Our strategic objective, our plan is it will create the place as more people choose to come more often for longer. Clearly, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on our business, our customers, our retail partners, our people and our investors. I'm very proud of our team, particularly how we responded and adapted to the significant changes brought about by the pandemic. Our results reflect the dedication and living our values, our DNA, and I'd like to thank them for their contribution in this half year. This period has reinforced the importance of our customer-driven strategy and our ability to be agile and continually seek to understand what our customers want and to meet their needs. The strategic location and proximity of the group's network of 42 Westfield Living Centers to the most densely populated urban areas, with more than 16 million people living within a 30-minute drive of one of our centers underpins the essential nature of our business in the lives of the customers we serve. We've remained open throughout, implementing and communicating the high standards of health and safety protocols. In many ways, our teams were at the forefront of establishing safe protocols in center, supporting the government's efforts to limit the spread of the virus and importantly, providing confidence to customers and retail partners. As restrictions eased and customers returned, we now have more than 93% of retail stores open across the portfolio, excluding our Victorian centers. Overall, the portfolio was 98.8% leased at the end of June 2020. Our financial results demonstrate the long-term resilience of our business, with the group achieving gross cash inflow of over $1 billion during the half, with net operating cash surplus of $261 million. We did not stand still, wait for the pandemic to pass and hope the customer would return. Instead, we took the opportunity to accelerate strategic initiatives, such as Westfield Direct and Westfield Plus, which leverages the convergence of physical and digital platforms to facilitate customers connected with our retail partners beyond the traditional physical interaction. We launched Westfield Plus, our membership customer engagement platform, at Westfield Newmarket in New Zealand in late 2019, and in the last month, introduced the program in Australia. We have now more than 500,000 Westfield Plus members, and this continues to grow. During the peak COVID lockdown, which saw the mandated closure of seating in our food courts, we launched Westfield Direct to allow customers to buy from multiple food court operators and collect as a single drive-through location at their local Westfield center. We launched this across all 42 centers in Australia and New Zealand, and this has provided significant body of learning to inform how we can further enhance, how we can create new opportunities for interaction with the customer. As I said, we acknowledge that this is being a difficult time for our customers and our retail partners. We have supported our retail partners throughout this period on a case-by-case basis, and we have done this without receiving financial assistance from government. The shopping center industry has provided over $1.6 billion of support for retailers during the pandemic. Our industry is unique in that it’s provided and self-funded a level of financial support beyond any other industry as well as most government pandemic support packages. To date, we have agreed arrangements with 2,438 of our 3,600 retail partners, including 1,624 SME retail partners. Importantly, the structure of our leases with our retail partners has not changed and remains based on the mutual agreement to pay a fixed rent. For the 6-month period, the group collected 70% of gross rental billings. And for the months of June and July, gross rental billings collections were over 80%. As you will see in our monthly collection data, we were flexible in rent collection during the months of April and May, when we were not actively discussing collections with our retail partners. We have witnessed a rapid return of customers to our centers as soon as restrictions lifted, indicating the key role our centers play in the day-to-day life of our communities and the resilience of our business model. Visitation has returned to 84% of what it was this time last year, excluding Victoria. It is worth noting that not all categories have returned to full trading such as cinemas, some retailers have restricted their trading hours, which has negatively impacted the extended hours that customers would typically visit. In New Zealand, with the addition of Westfield Newmarket, visitations in July were up nearly 30% on the prior year. We continue to listen to our customers, and it's pleasing to hear that they want to be back in our centers going about their daily lives, and they feel secured by physical safety and hygiene measures in our centers. In-store sales for our retail partners were impacted by the pandemic and the associated restrictions on people movement. In-store sales for those retail partners that traded throughout the 6-month period were 8.1% lower compared to the previous corresponding 6-month period in 2019. Specialty in-store sales on the same basis were 12.1% lower for the 6-month period compared to the corresponding period. Pleasingly, in the month of July, our in-store sales for our Australian portfolio, including the state of Victoria, were higher than July last year, both for specialty and total in-store sales. During the half year, we continued to progress the projects that were already underway at Westfield Doncaster in Melbourne, Westfield Belconnen in Canberra and Westfield Hornsby in Sydney. The $50 million project that Westfield Carindale in Brisbane is on track to be completed next month in September. At the outset of the pandemic, we acted quickly to secure additional funding to ensure that we're in a strong financial position to see the group through and beyond the volatile period. Elliott will speak more about this shortly. The group continues to implement initiatives that support our strategy to operate as a responsible, sustainable business. During the half, we announced our target to achieve net 0 carbon emissions by 2030, and the group recently committed to the Task Force for Climate-Related Financial Disclosures, or TCFD. We have maintained our full commitment to local heroes, community grants and recognition program of approximately $1.2 million, which provides 3 $10,000 grants per center to local community organizations. Our 2020 Westfield local hero finalists will be announced this week before community voting gets underway. We have found our local communities to be highly engaged in the program, which is now in its third year. This year has seen a 38% increase in nominations to total 1,455. The successful Westfield local heroes will be announced in their communities in October. Our employee engagement and retention has remained high, and we have retained our WGEA Employer of Choice for Gender Equality and improved our Australian Workplace Equality index from bronze to silver. Our teams have ensured our centers are operational throughout the period, and the majority of our support office have returned to the workplace, which is certainly improving our collaboration. We believe business continuity and remaining open during the pandemic has been a social responsibility, maintaining sustainable economic activity and local employment. We have continued to pay all of our suppliers, including small businesses on 30-day terms to ensure cash flow. In Victoria, some of our centers are sites for mobile drive-through COVID testing sites as part of the government's testing program. I'll now hand over to Elliott to take you through the financial results.
Elliott Rusanow
executiveThanks, Peter. Funds from operations for the 6-month period was $362 million or $0.0696 per security. Operating earnings, which is FFO before project income, was $361 million or $0.0694 per security. Included as an expense in the half year result was an expected credit charge of $232 million relating to the financial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on rental income. The pandemic also impacted other revenue items, including car park revenue, ancillary income and property management fees by approximately $30 million. None of these items are included in the expected credit charge or revenue for the period. In determining the expected credit charge, we have regard to the level of cash collections as well as the amount of trade receivables and their likely recoverability. Trade debtors at June 30 are $174 million and are covered by a similar level of bank guarantees. At this point, approximately 1/3 of the expected credit charge has been applied. Cash collection has been a key focus for the group, following the easing of restrictions in early June. As detailed on Slide 6, our rental collection levels reduced during April that averaged 70% for the 6-month period. This has since increased further in June and July to more than 80%. August is tracking at a similar pace. These collection rates are prior to any adjustment for the SME code and its impact in reducing the actual amount of cash rent we are able to collect. For the 6-month period, cash inflow totaled $1.059 billion, including $875 million in rent. After interest, tax and overhead, the group achieved an operating cash surplus of $261 million. Very early into the pandemic, we focused on obtaining additional funding in order to ensure that we would be in a strong financial position to see the group through and beyond this volatile period. We also paused the security buyback program and announced that we would not be paying an interim distribution in August of this year. We have raised and extended in total $5.8 billion of funding, including negotiating $3.4 billion of bank facilities and issuing $2.4 billion of long-term bonds. We decided to hold an elevated level of cash on deposit during the period, and this continues to be the case. The group currently has available liquidity of $4.4 billion. This is after paying the EUR 600 million bond that matured in July. The group remained highly hedged during the half at 81%, with an average net interest rate cost of approximately 4%. Interest cover was 3.6x. It should be noted that under our facilities and bond covenants, significant items, such as the expected credit charge experienced in this half are not included in the calculation of our credit or covenant metrics. We retained our A or equivalent credit ratings from S&P, Fitch and Moody's. We have sufficient liquidity and available funding for an extended period. We remain comfortable with our financial position, which we believe is well placed to generate long-term value for securityholders. Overheads were $41.9 million during this half compared to $42.5 million in the prior period, reflecting overhead savings and efficiencies, offset by investments made into strategic initiatives, including Westfield Direct and Westfield Plus. The statutory result was a loss of $3.6 billion, which includes the unrealized noncash reduction in property valuations of $4.079 billion. 53% of the property portfolio was valued externally with the same valuation principles applied to the carrying values for the remainder of the portfolio. The average capitalization rate for those valuations increased from 4.72% to 4.91%. We have provided on Slide 26 a detail of the values by property. Slide 23 details the components of FFO. You will note that our FFO expenses the accounting benefit of straight-lining of rent of $6.2 million. It also expenses income tax of $12.1 million for the period. Project income for the half was lower due to the impact of reduced development activity that we have previously discussed as well as the timing of income recognition of the projects that are underway. The difference between FFO and net operating cash surplus is as a result of the increase in net trade debtors, which, as I've mentioned, are backed by in-place bank guarantees. As previously announced, the group will not be providing earnings or distribution guidance. I'll now hand back to Peter to conclude.
Peter Allen
executiveThanks, Elliott. We've been resilient through an exceptionally challenging period. The health, safety and well-being of our customers, retail and people continues to be our #1 priority. Our team remains focused on managing the diverse operational impacts of the pandemic, whilst not letting it consume our efforts and strategic focus. We have a great team of people who are customer obsessed. We operate major physical infrastructure in locations, typically on transport nodes and close to dense population with flexible space that can cater for many users. We've supported our SME retailers through this period in recognition of the cash flow shock they have experienced and led the industry response in providing industry assistance, which is unequaled by any other sector of the economy. We have also provided support to our non-SME retailers. We have brought the future forward and delivered initiatives that demonstrate our ability to enhance the role of physical retail as a key driver of customer engagement and growth for our retail partners. There are uncertain times ahead for consumers and for our economies, yet we believe the underlying fundamentals of the group's business remains strong, and the business is well positioned to deliver through this cycle. We'll continue to adapt to the challenges faced across the economy and delivering on our purpose, which is creating extraordinary places, connecting and enriching communities. I'll now open the call for questions.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Richard Jones.
Richard Jones
analystJust wanted to discuss just the revaluations that you've bought. Can you discuss kind of what went into those changes in terms of cap rate movement? Obviously, short-term impact and long-term reductions on rent growth? And perhaps, how you see revaluations moving going forward?
Elliott Rusanow
executiveYes, Richard, it's Elliott here. So as I mentioned, 53% of the portfolio was valued by external valuers, who adopted a fairly consistent set of assumptions in the main, although they all take a very different approach. But effectively, we saw a combination of 2 principal moves in the change of valuations. Half of it effectively been that change in cap rate, which I mentioned and it's detailed on Slide 26 property by property. And the other half was, in effect, the assumption that are made for the forecast net operating income assumptions at the external value was applied moving forward. So in the main, they've adopted very limited -- no growth in their assumptions for the next 3 years in general and very little growth for the years 4 to 10 in their 10-year DCF analysis. We have applied very similar principles when we looked at the carrying value of the 47% that we effectively internally valued.
Richard Jones
analystOkay. And then just in terms of the credit provision, and I guess, with reference to collections. Can you kind of give us a breakdown of how that looks on a month-by-month basis with perhaps a read into July, August?
Elliott Rusanow
executiveWell, it's very difficult to provide an expected credit charge on a month-by-month basis. It's not the way the accounting is done. But basically, we take an assessment as at June 30 on the likely recoverability, and we take the charge accordingly, which were expensed in FFO and in our statutory results. And I think that, as I mentioned, the -- around 1/3 of that credit charge has been effectively utilized at this point. Clearly, there's ongoing negotiations, which would utilize more of that credit charge. But at this point, we're comfortable with that level of credit charge that we've put forward in our results.
Richard Jones
analystSo just -- I suppose what I was referencing in terms of the improving cash collection rate that you're having. Is that -- are you expecting that to be a positive leading indicator for where provision charge might go in the second half?
Elliott Rusanow
executiveI don't think we would be forecasting anything regarding our earnings or provisions.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from the line of Simon Chan from Morgan Stanley.
Simon Chan
analystI just want to carry on from Jones's question about the ECC. I was wondering, Elliott, if you could perhaps provide a bit of color on the actual makeup of the $232 million, like how much of it is arising from actual waivers that you've agreed to? And how much of it is waivers that you think you will have to provide?
Elliott Rusanow
executiveWell, I think that it's all an expectation, of which 1/3 has been utilized at this point.
Peter Allen
executiveSimon, I think generally, you look at it and you say, okay, what is the amount owing to us? And in effect, from what we haven't collected to date, in effect, we have a debtor in place, which is basically covered by bank guarantees, as Elliott mentioned, and then we've got the balance, okay? And therefore, we have an expectation that we will collect, as Elliott has mentioned, roughly 1/3 of that is already being utilized to date. But I suppose to Richard's question before, yes, it is a positive sign in terms of the collections, which we've got since July and August in terms of our ability in terms of the conservative nature of that credit charge.
Simon Chan
analystGreat. I guess the other way to spin the question is then, of the 2,400 -- or 2,300-or-so deals that you have agreed to, what sort of structure have you put in place in line with the government recommendation? Or what's the general structure of the relief?
Peter Allen
executiveYes. Well, certainly, as far as the deals are concerned with the SMEs, we've done 1,624 of the 2,600. All of those are done within the code. And just so you're aware, the code is different across each of the states and territories. Just not to confuse our team, but so that's about 62% of that. And so that's within the code. The balance have done with other retailers. What we've done with other retailers, as I said, we've maintained a fixed rent in terms of going forward, it's dealing with the pandemic period as a whole. And then we've done that on a case-by-case basis. And about 81% or 814 of the remaining 1,000 retailers, we've agreed the deal for that pandemic period.
Simon Chan
analystGreat. And is fixed rent with no variable component, right, Peter? Like there's no tricks with your wordings there at all?
Peter Allen
executiveNo, there's no -- it's our standard lease. So it is fixed rent, Simon. And I think the positive thing is -- as, you should see, is that with those deals which we have done, we are seeing retailers continue to pay rent. So we've seen rent collections continue, as Elliott said, during July and then into August.
Simon Chan
analystYour leasing spread of negative 8.7%. Can I imagine that gets you up to March? Because I can't imagine there being too many deals signed in April, May, June. So 8.7% is pre-COVID?
Peter Allen
executiveYes. But surprisingly, there were a number of deals done in the second quarter of the year. Yes, there was a few, but there was the second quarter. And yes, so that's minus 8.7%. And to give you a little bit more color, I think that there's about 150 deals done in the second quarter. So it's a reasonable amount in terms of the portfolio. To give you a little bit of color, that 8.7%. I think for renewals, it was about 8.4%, and for new merchants, it's about 8.9%. That was pre-COVID results.
Simon Chan
analystGreat. Just to push the fringe a bit more then, Peter, what about the releasing spreads for the June quarter? Is it significantly lower than the 8.7% then?
Peter Allen
executiveNo, I would -- sorry, for the total June -- sorry, total January to June was minus 8.7%.
Simon Chan
analystYes, but what if we just can sort of think of June quarter?
Peter Allen
executiveI haven't looked at it like that, sorry. So the 100 people deal, I haven't looked it like that.
Simon Chan
analystOkay. That's fair enough. Just a final question then. Obviously, a few retailers struggling at the moment. Are you guys tempted to expand and put some money into some struggling retailers to help recapitalize them at all?
Peter Allen
executiveNo, that is not in our intention to be a retailer, Simon.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Sholto Maconochie from Jefferies.
Sholto Maconochie
analystJust to follow up on the provisioning. Elliott, so $232 million has been provided. And you said 77% -- 1/3 of that's being used, that's about $77 million. But in the Note 4 of the receivables, you've got a $209 million expected credit loss. Does that imply that only $23.5 million was waived? So $232 million less the $209 million is about $23 million. Is that the way to think about it? You waived $23.5 million?
Elliott Rusanow
executiveSholto, it's to do with the equity accounting and consolidated accounting. So there's 2 line areas where the ECC will show up. What you referred to is the consolidated area of the accounts. And then in the equity area of the accounts as a further 20-odd -- $23 million accounting gets you to $232 million.
Sholto Maconochie
analystSo the $232 million, that includes provisioning and the waivers. How much was waived in the period?
Elliott Rusanow
executiveWell, I mentioned, we've used about 1/3 of that $232 million.
Sholto Maconochie
analystOkay. Because just look -- if you look at the cash flow as to where that's where the rubber hits the road, like the cash flow was -- you flagged north of $250 million, inclusive of the GST, which I know moves around, was $211 million. That's a pretty big drop year-on-year, about 66% drop. If you add back the provisioning, that of $232 million, that's still a 28% drop. So just sort of doesn't really low line is the implication is you can get a big, obviously, expecting a lot more cash to come in that hasn't been paid. Is that the implication?
Elliott Rusanow
executiveWell, there's also $120 million movement in the trade debtor in the receivable, which, as we mentioned, is backed by bank guarantees, which we do expect to collect.
Sholto Maconochie
analystAnd on the bank, that's a good point. On the guarantees, how much -- is that typically 3 to 6 months for the guarantees that you get given from the retailers?
Elliott Rusanow
executiveYes, typically around 3 months.
Sholto Maconochie
analystOkay, 3 months? Right.
Elliott Rusanow
executiveYes. They are -- the point there is not that we're going to collect on the bank guarantees. The point is that we expect to collect on the trade receivable, which moved by $120 million during the half period.
Sholto Maconochie
analystOkay. Okay. Get the $120 million. And then on the occupancy, it's still pretty high at the period, 98.8%, I think it was. But could you break that down to what was in holdover and short-term deals? So if you backed it out, what will obviously be? And what would the level of rollovers?
Elliott Rusanow
executiveYes. In terms of holdovers, the holdovers are approximately 6%.
Sholto Maconochie
analystOkay. And then on the -- in the spreads, you include -- correct me if I'm wrong...
Elliott Rusanow
executiveI'd just say that -- Sorry, Sholto, just what I should say, as part of the deals which we're doing with the retailers, what we are doing is we're continuing to extend the leases so that those retailers who we have agreed some sort of deal agreement through the pandemic period, we've looked to extend those leases. So we've got an average lease extension of around 3 years on some 400 -- 704 deals, I think it is, something like that. So that kind of [indiscernible] okay? So you can't just look at the holdover. The holdover as at 30th of June was approximately 6%, but we're dealing with those as we go through these agreements.
Sholto Maconochie
analystAnd what was it last -- the 30th last year, June '19 at a similar level? Or was that 4%, I think? Or?
Elliott Rusanow
executiveI think it was 4%, to be fair. Yes.
Sholto Maconochie
analystOkay. And then just on those extends, so the people are opting -- obviously, you've deferred the rent they're offering to extend it to that deferred amount? Is that the way to look at it?
Peter Allen
executiveWell, even those people who were not deferring rent for, we are looking to ensure that they have access to great retail real estate and the customer.
Sholto Maconochie
analystAnd just finally for me. On the Vic exposure, you don't have a lot of exposure there. Can you sort of talk to sort of what the level of opening is in those? How many stores are open sort of in your portfolio in Victoria?
Peter Allen
executiveAt this point in time, and as you say, we've got about 15% of our businesses in Victoria. I think about this point in time, there's something like 40-odd percent of stores open in Victoria at this point in time.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from the line of Darren Leung from Macquarie.
Darren Leung
analystJust to go on Slide 7 quickly, you mentioned you're extending your lease terms by about 3 years. Is that on your COVID relief deals? Or is that on your new leases?
Peter Allen
executiveYes, Darren, that's on our COVID relief deals.
Darren Leung
analystOkay. It's a good outcome. How long is your call at abated rent for? Is it until September? Or should I ask a question around Victoria, but is there a risk of that being extended?
Peter Allen
executiveYes. Well, we've done this on a case-by-case basis. So it's really difficult to give a sense. And as Elliott said, basically, it's included in the credit charge that we have. And we've done that really with the SME retailers.
Darren Leung
analystOkay. And then it's good that you've done 150-odd deals in second quarter, like not many people have done deals. What's the average duration on those, please?
Elliott Rusanow
executiveNormal deals.
Peter Allen
executiveYes, normal deals. That's typical average 5-year lease. We've annually.
Darren Leung
analystYes. What are your annual increases doing now?
Peter Allen
executiveWe still have CPI plus 2%, and we have 5% fixed in Victoria.
Darren Leung
analystUnderstand. And then the other one is just around the credit ratings comment, Elliott. So one of the thresholds for Moody's is obviously net debt to EBITDA. You're running around about 7.6x in around the threshold 7. How do you think about that threshold, please?
Elliott Rusanow
executiveWell, I'm not sure what their threshold is, whether it's 7 or that's really a question for Moody's. And I'm not sure that, that orthodox regarding what that threshold is at this point. But in our discussions with all the rating agencies, I think they're comfortable with where our rating currently sits. Obviously, as an industry, retail REITs globally been put on negative watch, but there's nothing specific with Scentre Group in that, and in our -- as I said, in our conversations, with all the rating agencies, they would be looking through the significant one-off items. And as I also mentioned, none of our covenants nor metrics include any of the significant items within them. So that be the interest cover, debt to EBITDA, gearing, et cetera.
Darren Leung
analystSo my 7.6 number was excluding the credit provision already?
Elliott Rusanow
executiveNo, I know. I just was making that point.
Darren Leung
analystOkay. And then just a final one for me. How do you think about funding the development pipeline? There's probably not much in the next 12, 18 months, but use of capital in terms of the medium-term pipeline, please?
Elliott Rusanow
executiveWell, I think that we would be funding it in a very similar way that we have funded historically. So -- but as you correctly pointed out, the call on capital over the next 18 months is actually not that great. And so as that evolves over time, then I dare say, the world will be probably different to where we stand today in terms of where capital markets might or might not be. And we'll have to articulate our capital plan appropriate at that time, depending on the capital expenditure pipeline at that point in time. It's very hard to crystal ball, I think, where we stand today.
Darren Leung
analystSure. Well, with 38% gearing, and I know your covenant's less than 65, yourself in post target range is 30% to 40%. At what point do you think that access to debt capital markets starts to come a bit more restricted? Like pricing has already increased, but at what point do you think that probability of access goes down?
Elliott Rusanow
executiveA long way from where we are today.
Peter Allen
executiveYes, I think if you're below investment grade, you would find it difficult in terms of accessing the global debt capital markets. But given we're a couple of notches above the investment grade still, I think we've got great access.
Darren Leung
analystWhat threshold have you guys determined in -- as part of your own risk management?
Peter Allen
executiveI think when we started Scentre -- or established Scentre Group, that's quite interesting because at that time, we said we were going to be A credit rating. We didn't say whether it's going to be an A, A- or A+ at that point in time. We said we're A. We've been an A credit rating since that time. At that time, when we established Scentre Group, our gearing was 38%. We've invested some $4 billion into projects into our centers. The way our centers look and feel and meet the needs of the customer and our retail partners is world-class. So that's going to see us through really positively, I think. And we're seeing that in terms of the retailers wanting to take space with us and remain with us and pay rent to stay with us. So I think that's a positive sign. So we're going to maintain that A credit rating, give us the access to the global debt capital markets, as I said. And I think we're in a really great position to be able to do that. What we've been able to prove in the first half very quickly, as Elliott mentioned, is raising additional bank as well as long-term funding for the group. And we believe that our debt providers and debt investors will continue to support us.
Darren Leung
analystAnd just to be clear, issuing equity isn't part of those plans?
Peter Allen
executiveNo, it's not.
Operator
operatorYour next question is from the line of Grant McCasker from UBS.
Grant McCasker
analystThen maybe just following on from that question in regards to the debt balance of $13.7 billion. What's the appetite you feel for high-quality retail assets in Australia at the moment from potential buyers?
Peter Allen
executiveIt's -- Grant, it's really hard to tell. Like you said, we haven't seen any real transactions with regard to that. But we certainly have seen investors look at other property types through the pandemic period. I think that what we've shown in terms of the results and our business model is that we are able to collect substantial levels of cash in terms of income through the pandemic period because of the quality of the portfolio. With interest rates relatively low and investors chasing yield, I think that if there were some great quality assets out in the market that they will probably will be bid by the institutional investors. But yes, it's hard to say.
Grant McCasker
analystOkay. Excellent. And maybe just following on questions on occupancy at 98.8%. Is that -- is it fair to say, as of today, to be a similar number? Have you seen any deterioration in the last couple of months?
Peter Allen
executiveNo, we haven't. No.
Grant McCasker
analystAnd then if we roll forward over the next 6 to 12 months, how are you thinking about occupancy across -- should we expect a similar level come December and then the March quarter?
Peter Allen
executiveWell, Grant, I certainly hope so. And certainly, the team are working towards that. We have a number of expiries, as you can imagine, yes. Roughly 7%, 8% of our leases would expire in the next 12 months in terms of our specialty leases. But in terms of the -- what we're seeing in terms of the negotiations to date, as I said, with some 700 lease extensions as part of retailers who have -- through the pandemic period is a positive sign in terms of their, I suppose, want to stay in Westfield Living Centers. So I'd hope that -- and then as I said earlier, with regards to the other question, yes, the quality of our centers and the flexibility of our space allows a lot of uses. And I think that we'll continue to drive our centers to really be the place where people want to come.
Operator
operatorNext question is from the line of James Druce from CLSA.
James Druce
analystJust a question on -- just to clarify on the look through sort of cash flow. If you're just going from the $619 million on pcp to $211 million today, you're basically saying there's $120 million in debtors? And is it the $232 million in credit provisions, which is kind of effectively lost cash? Is it -- are there any other major drivers to trying just to sort of explain that gap?
Elliott Rusanow
executiveYes. James, it's Elliott here. We did sell a fairly large office building in -- at the end of June last year, and we also sold half of Burwood. So there were some asset changes that have to be taken into account that cash flow as well. If you go look on pcp.
James Druce
analystOkay. There's about $50 million that's still on...
Elliott Rusanow
executiveAs I also mentioned that -- at the beginning, that not included in the expected credit charge or the impact on revenue regarding car park ancillary property management income, which, I mentioned, was around $30 million.
James Druce
analystYes. No, that makes sense. Just on the 3,600 retailers that you have, how many leases do you have across the portfolio? And is there any skew between the proportion of deals you've done with retailers versus actual leases?
Peter Allen
executiveNo. Basically, in terms of that, we've got approximately 12,000 stores in across the portfolio. So therefore, about 12,000 leases, of which 3,600 are retailers who lease that low space. And those retailers would also have different -- potentially different brands and chains. And so...
James Druce
analystYes, sure. I'm just wondering, in terms of deals done, would that be a portion of deals done with retailers, does that reflect the sort of deals done across stores? Is it pro rata, roughly?
Peter Allen
executiveYes, it would be. Yes, it would be. Yes, it's pro rata.
James Druce
analystOkay. And then finally, I know it's been a few people have had to dig at this, but just on the 1/3 of the credit provision used, what does that look like in terms of rent waived and deferred?
Elliott Rusanow
executiveThat I would be guiding that is rent waived.
Operator
operatorThere are no further questions at this time. I will now hand back to the presenters. Please continue.
Peter Allen
executiveYes. Thanks, everyone, for joining the call. Please don't hesitate if you got any further questions to call our Investor Relations team. So I appreciate you and keep safe. Thanks.
Operator
operatorThat does conclude the conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may all disconnect.
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