Schaeffler AG (SHA1.VI) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Pre-Close Call Q4 2025. I'm Sergen, the Chorus Call operator. [Operator Instructions] and the conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Heiko Eber, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, I'm very happy to welcome you to our today's pre-close call on Q4 and the full year 2025. Now before we move on to our content of today's call, I'm sure that, as always, you have all taken notice of the well-known disclaimer. Please note that the release and all the information herein is still unaudited and that our next quiet period will start today right after this call. We are holding this call to remind you of relevant public information previously provided by Schaeffler AG or otherwise available in the market, which may be helpful in assessing the company's financial performance ahead of the Q4 and full year 2025 results on March 3, 2026. Looking at the agenda, as usual, I will guide you through the key messages and give some more clarity on our 4 divisions. After our short presentation, you will have the opportunity to ask questions. And with this, I would directly jump into the content of today's presentation. We will start with a brief overview of the key aspects of Q4 and full year 2025. For sales, we expect Q4 to be flattish quarter-over-quarter, but for full year, lower than previous year. However, within our 2025 guidance range of EUR 23 million to EUR 25 billion. Our Q4 adjusted EBIT will be clearly higher than Q4 2024, but lower than in the prior quarter. Full year profitability will be around the midpoint of our guidance of 3% to 5%. And I would like to ask you to keep in mind that 2025 was not a straight year. Some of you might still remember the implementation of tariffs, the availability of rare earths, Nexperia, and the overall weak market. So finally, ending up at the midpoint of the initiated guidance is quite an achievement. Regarding our free cash flow, we anticipate another strong quarter, only slightly lower than Q4 2024. Full year shows a significant step up in comparison to last year around the upper end of our updated guidance range of 0 to EUR 200 million. Please keep in mind the strong free cash flow in Q4 is partially a result of early payments of selected out of OEMs. It looks like the one or the other customer has considered 2025 as a last year and therefore, we received the one or the other early payment. And for sure, you can only collect these funds once. Now on Slide #4. Let's take a look at our 4 divisions, starting with E-Mobility. In a still challenging market, especially in the Americas, the trend towards electrification remains globally fully intact. Q4 shows a slight growth year-over-year, thanks to the ramp-up projects. Full year sales should trend at the lower end of the guidance, but also here, keeping in mind the latest market strengths and highlighting that our outperformance, especially in the battery electric vehicles is still significant. Same is true for our continuous success for acquiring new businesses in the hybrid field, but more details than on March 3. When talking about profitability, we were able to further improve our EBIT year-over-year in Q4. This brings us comfortably within our full year EBIT margin guidance range. Q4, nevertheless, and I know you're all aware, it's not yet the new normal, but as every year, supported by R&D reimbursements. Looking at Powertrain & Chassis, we are still facing a soft market environment, especially in Europe. This leads to a moderate sales decline in Q4 year-over-year. For the full year, we see a substantial sales decrease, mainly driven by phaseout businesses. So things that we are executing and that we communicated early on. And this, in combination with an anyhow soft market in Europe. All in all, full year sales will be close to the lower end of the guidance. On the margin side, we expect Q4 margin to come in clearly lower year-over-year due to the lower volumes overall. When you look at expected full year margin, it should cruise within the lower half of our guidance range of 10% to 12%. We could, therefore, still secure a decent double-digit margin level for our PTC business and this in a highly challenging environment. Taking a look at vehicle lifetime solutions, we see a robust demand in all regions, influenced, of course, by the growing and aging car park. Q4 will show mid-single-digit growth year-over-year. The same is true for the full year growth rate, leading to full year sales at the lower guidance band. The EBIT margin in Q4 is slightly up on a year-on-year basis, leading to a strong full year margin level around the midpoint of our guidance range. Last but not least, Bearings & Industrial Solutions. Here, the market environment overall, still more on the soft side which is not a big surprise due to the ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties. With regards to sales distribution, Q4 will show a slight sales decrease year-over-year, leading to full year sales well within the guidance range. On the margin side it is clearly higher year-over-year, which is not a surprise, as you all remember, our very weak Q4 2024 in this division. But also underlining the clear improvements we see mainly related to our initiated structural measures. The full year profitability with continuously improved margin profile is safely within our updated full year guidance range. Now moving on to Slide #5. This slide shows our most recent guidance for 2025, which we anticipate meeting across all key metrics. We will provide the 2026 guidance in the same format as you already know, as this is also aligned with the structure of midterm targets for '28. And of course, we would like to make sure that we are as transparent in reaching these targets as possible. Further details, as said on March 3. Finally, on Slide #6. As a reminder, our midterm targets for 2028. We are fully on track to reach all our targets. Nevertheless, as already mentioned at the Capital Markets Day, the improvement of our financial KPIs will not be linear. For the free cash flow development, please keep in mind that in 2026, the free cash flow will be burdened by material restructuring cash out and the fact that our 2025 free cash flow saw some early payments by customers as already mentioned. And to be honest, also on the CapEx side, we have seen a reinvestment rate in 2025. That was on the low side since we were very carefully managing our investments. We will continue to do so also in, but we expect slightly higher investments to further push our future growth opportunities. So before we finally jump into our Q&A session, just one short notice. After the call, as usual, we will distribute our consensus sheet. And we would be very grateful for your contribution and your estimates ideally until February 4. And now let me hand over to our operator for the first question.

[Operator Instructions] You have the first question coming from the line of Christoph Laskawi from Deutsche Bank.

[Technical Difficulty]

You're very hard to hear. The line is very bad.

Sorry, is this now better?

Much better.

Yes. Sorry for that. I'd like to start with a question on PTC. If I read your comments right, quarter-over-quarter, you should be around flat. Yet you indicate margin actually down year-over-year. Essentially the same top line in Q3, you had a margin, which was, I think, around 11%. Could you just elaborate a bit on what should cause the....

Sorry, Christoph, the line is unfortunately breaking up.

I hope you can -- yes, I can. Is it now any better? Or should I try in the line?

It seems to be better now. Sorry, I didn't catch the last part of your question.

Okay. Sorry for that. Again, just wondering if you could shed more light on what should be causing essentially the same top line level Q3 versus Q4 and PTC, the margin to drop by more than 100 basis points, considering that you had, again, an improvement in over Q3 last year. You mentioned volumes, but just a bit more explanation will be great to have? And then just a question, if your management or in the meetings you had over the recent weeks, elaborated or any further '26 building blocks. I think free cash flow you already pointed to that there's a risk that it could be down year-over-year. Anything else on top line or the segments will be appreciated. And then last question, just like you said yesterday evening to build out 1-million unit capacity in Fremont for the Optimus. Is this sort of in line with your expectations on the development of the capacity? If you could shed some light on that or just share your thoughts?

Yes. I mean on PTC, it is -- I know that the answer is very boring, but it is to a big extent, a mix effect. So the quality of the business has not changed between Q3 and Q4. The take rate for project with a little bit of a lower profitability, unfortunately, was higher. This is mainly a regional phenomena. That's why, let's say, Q3 was maybe not yet back to the new normal. Q4 is maybe a little bit lower than what we are able to generate. So if we take the overall mix for 2025, demonstrating that we could still deliver a solid double-digit result, I think that's a good indication for the way forward. And again, all these special effects that we have seen this year, many of them directly impacted the colleagues at PTC. For sure, we were able to pass on most of the cost to the customers. Will you always be able to recover 100% -- honestly speaking, not. So I guess we all wish for a year normal 2026 that will be beneficial for all of us. Regarding the, let's say, the indication for 2026. Free cash flow, as I said, we have -- and also this is not a new information. We always said that 2026 will be the year where we see the highest level of burden from our restructuring and integration efforts. We will see a slight increase on the CapEx side. Nevertheless, the underlying business and the underlying cash flow is fully intact. And there, we see steady improvement. We saw very nice improvements when it comes to working capital management, especially in the second half of last year. So all the measures that you normally take in order to optimize or further improve your cash flow generation are well executed. We have the onetime effects well known, well communicated. So we expect another year with a positive free cash flow, just to make this clear. Will we see a significant improvement or will we see an improvement compared to 2025, unlikely thanks to the -- or due to the onetime effect. Sales also there, not a big change in the market. We don't see significant uplift from the market, especially on the auto side. Industrial side, a mixed picture. So let's say, we are carefully optimistic on the industrial part. And if you don't get a significant tailwind from the market, all you can do in order to improve your profitability is do your homework, execute what we have committed. And for us, it means execute our restructuring program, execute the operational excellence to make sure that we have flawless launches. And with that, we should also see a slight improvement on the profitability side. But again, it's not a straight line between where we are today and our ambition for 2028. Last but not least, yes, of course, we have all seen the Tesla announcement, including the fact that you have to stop production of Model S and Model X to free up capacity for the various Optimus. For us, nothing has changed. Now we are strong believers in this market to become significant. We still see EUR 1 million plus/minus humanoids in 2030 as a realistic starting point. The real question will be answered afterwards because it's an ecosystem in the making. And at the moment -- and maybe this is a little bit of a general comment. But in the moment, it is much more important to establish yourself as an, let's say, irreplaceable part of this new ecosystem and not so much in discussing whether or not the one or the other volume assumption is realistic. To be honest, we all know the hit rate of Mr. Musk when it comes to projecting future volumes. So let's take it as a strong signal that he believes in the market. And at least when it comes to which markets will develop is usually right whether or not the volumes are given to be seen.

The next question comes from Ross MacDonald from Citi.

Hopefully, you can hear me and apologies for any background noise. I'm again in the airport. First question, I'm sorry to ask, but on the Q4 margin at the company level, there is obviously quite a wide range you've given. Obviously, Q4 '24, 1.8% higher than that, but then you're saying lower than Q3 is 4.5%. Just if I can push you a little bit, the full year -- if the full year comes in at 4.0% exactly, that would imply a Q4 margin about 3.4%. So I'm looking at the consensus is around 4.1% for Q4. So I'm just curious how much more information can you give us on the Q4 margin? Because if I read the slide, with potentially a small miss on the Q4 group margin over 10% on adjusted EBIT. So just be helpful if you can maybe give us some steer there. Does Q4 start with a 4? Or are we talking about a 3% plus margin in the fourth quarter? Sorry, that was long-winded. And the second question, just on free cash flow. You mentioned a onetime early payment on the free cash from an OEMs. Any size you can offer in terms of how much that onetime impacts the fourth quarter just in terms of non-repeat?

Thank you, Ross. So on the Q4 margin, what should I say? The initial calculation you did is it's not wrong. And for sure, that is due to the fact that we have a mixed picture if we look division by division. I think the biggest driver for the Q4 result, not starting with the 4 is PTC. Again, pure mix effect, which is acceptable from my point of view. And we have to keep in mind, we have seen a year with a lot of moving pieces between the different quarters. This is mainly driven by the recovery of all these effects I mentioned before. Now we have to keep in mind, we have this rolling recovery of taxes. And despite the fact that nobody is talking about it anymore, they are still there. We have a certain delay or shift between the quarters when it comes to recovery for the Nexperia topic. So we had a lot of moving parts where maybe Q3 was a little bit overstated and maybe Q4 is a little bit understated compared to the real performance of our company. That's why I would really -- I would ask you to try to look at the full year result and somehow keep in mind that this year was everything but normal. And also there, I repeat myself, but the time we have given the guidance, none of these events was visible. And at least myself, I'm really, really proud on what the colleagues in the divisions did this year to overcome all these headwinds and to still make sure that we can deliver a result that is well in the middle of our guidance. On the second question on the free cash flow, let's say with rough numbers, just to make sure that I don't give you the complete breakdown of our free cash flow analysis. But let's say, EUR 50-ish million -- EUR 50 million roundabout is a good number when it comes to the early payments.

The next question comes from Horst Schneider from Bank of America.

I've got a few questions left. First of all, when we look at the current increase of the steel price and with that, the increase of the material prices, what impact is it likely to have then on 2026. I think it's not fully a pass-through for you. So you have to carry part of the cost yourself. Is it true or not?

Fortunately -- first of all, hi Horst. Fortunately, this is not the case. I mean, yes, the raw material prices are going nuts again. For most metals we have pass-through clause. So it follows a little bit the same logic what we have seen from the tariffs. You might see shifts between the different quarters and some customers basically compensated on a monthly basis or on a quarterly basis or some only every 6 months where you do the true-up. But on raw material prices, we usually can recover 100%.

And chip prices is no issue for you, also not at E-Mobility, right? Because it has got nothing to do with DRAM chips or so.

We have, of course, a little bit of an exposure for DRAM chips, but if we compare it to the semiconductor crisis some years back or the Nexperia potential last year, I would say we are still rather relaxed. There might be certain applications that are impacted. For us, the bigger threat, and that's unfortunately being a part of these ecosystems in automotive, it is not so much the question whether we are seeing any problem, but sometimes it's a collateral damage. Now we all know if one critical part is missing, the OEM will not build cars. If they don't build cars, they don't buy our parts. So we're carefully monitoring it, but the impact for Schaeffler is rather limited.

Okay. That's correct. That's good news. Then on E-Mobility, because you also say that Q4 was not a too bad quarter. Maybe you can repeat again, I'm not sure if you said that, but what contributed to that? I know Q4 is always driven by R&D reimbursements, but we also had a lot of news from especially American carmakers that they decided to change the strategy on electrification and maybe they had to make some one-off payments as well, which were a benefit for you. And in that context also, I would be interested what -- if you have made any specific comments already on the outlook for E-Mobility in 2026. It's still with the U.S. changing a lot and there the E-Mobility market is probably shrinking, not growing. What that means for you, if all in all, E-Mobility growth is going to accelerate in 2026 because also in '25, I think you had some changeover effect or if that is a more muted year that is ahead of E-Mobility as well?

Very good question. So let me say it like this. We never had the ambition to trade in anticipated business with the U.S. customers and get compensated in cash because that's just exchanging money. For us, it was much more important to make sure that we get compensation in the form of new business contracts. And I guess there, we have been fairly successful. So at the end of the day, we have to see some of the awards we have seen in 2025, especially in the area of plug-in hybrids as part of the compensation package for reduced or canceled E-Mobility projects. And again, maybe that's one of the strengths of the auto piece of Schaeffler. We are, in this respect, hedged. And I cannot say that we are happy if projects get canceled. But with the structure with our portfolio, we are also very happy to get awarded with significant programs for plug-in hybrids. So on that -- with that respect, no significant tailwinds from compensation payments, but a very, very continuous inflow of order intake for the hybrid plant. Now the outlook for E-Mobility, and that's a little bit -- it's always this crystal ball. We don't see that the implementation speed in China is significantly slowing down. Unfortunate -- fortunately, the market in China by now is not so much depending on whether or not there are government subsidies granted or not. In Europe, I'm sure it helps that a number of governments are supporting the decision to buy an EV. So we are a little bit more optimistic on the European piece, Americas. Americas for E-Mobility is a very, very scattered market. No significant change in the take rate in California in the Rust Belt, try to find a charging station. So all in all, we will continue to grow in E-Mobility. We will continue to work our way towards the breakeven. It is not a step function. It is a continuous improvement. And the focus for this year will be like it was in the last year, make sure that we get all these ramp-ups managed in a way that we are avoiding hiccups in the ramp-up because that's the fastest way to burn money. So flawless launches, operational excellence in the ramp-up, that is the name of the game.

Next question comes from Vanessa Jeffriess from Jefferies.

I'm interested in what you just said about not taking cash compensation and getting new programs in hybrids instead. Does that have a mixed benefit for you?

Needless to say that for the time being, the profitability for our Heritage ICE project is still slightly higher than on the E-Mobility side. So given the nature of a hybrid application, yes, that has the potential to have a positive mix effect. On the other hand, it is a little bit of a difficult calculation because we need a certain threshold volume on the BEV to get the profitability up. So this is challenged, of course, with volume being shifted towards plug-in hybrids. So without doing the detailed calculation, I would say, we have some benefits on the mix effect, but we have some challenges on the volume. We need to make further or faster progress. So I guess on a group level, the impact should be rather limited.

Okay. And then could you please talk a little bit about how you're seeing a different industrial markets this year, given that you said you're kind of cautiously optimistic?

Yes. I mean -- the -- maybe let's go through one by one. Let's start with wind. Wind, there have been a number of significant initiatives being announced, whether they will already have an impact for 2026 to be seen. But I mean, there was the announcement from a number of European governments to create the world's greatest power station in the Baltic Sea. Let's see. I just wanted to use this example to show that the trend for increasing installed capacity in which industry is unbroken. And being the world market leader for bearings in this area, I guess we have a fair chance to get our share. On Industrial Automation, maybe the most funky piece of our business because with all the stimulus programs being announced beginning of last year, there have been expectations that we see a faster recovery of the overall industry, which would, of course, also help our industrial automation piece. I have the feeling that this waiting will go on for a while. So we don't see very clear indications that the market is significantly changing. Where we see an unbroken strong demand is on aerospace, on rail. So that still is super promising. Especially in Aerospace, we really are very busy in making sure that we free up enough capacity to serve the market demands. So there, the trend is unbroken. And let's say, the newer activities in our industrial sector, they start very promising, being it medical or some of the other well-known activities. So industrial maybe we have good reasons to be more optimistic than on the auto sector. And again, for us, another proof point that it makes a lot of sense to have this relatively broad portfolio. Otherwise, this year would be more challenging.

Great. And sorry, can you just give us a guide on when the other division ends up for the year?

I'm sorry?

Can you give us a guide of where the other division ends up for the year?

Thank you for not forgetting about our other division. So let's say, Q4 was pretty much in line with the previous 3 quarters, both when it comes to -- I mean, on the sales side, a little bit higher in Q4. On the profitability side, I would say the losses are pretty much flat compared to the first 9 months.

Let's see what happens if the next year hits?

That what we will share happily on 3rd of March.

[Operator Instructions] Next question comes from José Asumendi from JPMorgan.

Congrats on the share price performance. That's the first thing. Three quick ones, please. Have you given any comments in the last weeks on the -- on investments for humanoids? Any signals, whether it's capital intensive, it's not capital intensive? Any comments on that front? Second, can you speak about -- or have you given any comments with regards to the start of the year in China? It looks like sales production will be down in January. Any recent comments on the data you have seen? And then three, again, in E-Mobility, the fourth quarter, any guidance with regards to maybe the sequential move Q4 versus Q3? Are we seeing losses coming down in Q4 versus Q3? Or should we expect the sort of flat Q4 versus Q3? And I fully get the message you're giving. I don't look at the quarter look at the full year in terms of the improvement, just the quarters -- the quarters make the year, but obviously, we look at these things in the context of the full year. But yes, those 3 topics, please.

So maybe starting with the question on humanoids. I think that the main reason why we are so excited about these opportunities in the humanoid space is exactly the fact that it doesn't require huge investments on our end. We are mainly talking about products that we have already in production where we have already installed capacity. So we can redeploy the machinery, we can redeploy the product development and that is very much limiting our upfront investment in this space. This sometimes is misunderstood towards there are no investment at all. This is, of course, also not the case. We have to -- we have specific tooling that we need to invest. We have R&D teams that are making sure that we are adjusting our existing products to the specific needs of a humanoid. But -- and taking the market potential into consideration, if we compare it to the billions of euros that we have invested in E-Mobility, the entry barrier for us or the upfront investment for us in humanoid is -- I don't want to use the word neglectable. But what I can say, when we initiated our midterm targets, we clearly said that in the top line and in the bottom line, there are no impacts from humanoid considered. But now that we see how the market is unfolding. I would still not see any reason why we would touch our midpoint targets -- our midterm targets. So in a nutshell, we have efforts, but they will not impact our financials in a way that we would need to adjust our midterm targets. We will finance it out of our operational income without challenging the future. So I hope this is answering the question on the humanoids. China, to be honest, we are not really surprised about a, let's say, a slower start in China. We have seen a fairly strong Q4. That's the usual pattern that we see in China. After a strong Q4, you get a rather disappointing Q1. The pattern is not so much different from the previous years. That's why, at this point in time, we are fairly relaxed when it comes to the market development in China. What we hear from our customers for the full year is also not indicating that something extraordinary should happen. And last but not least, E-mobility. I mean, it is clear if you want to get to breakeven in 2028, the latest. You need to have an increase year-over-year. So also for 2026, we will see a further improvement. Again, not this linear curve. It's a step-by-step improvement. And also here, main focus this year get all the ramp-ups executed properly, and then we will take the benefit of this, hopefully, flawless launches in the years after.

Next question comes from Horst Schneider from Bank of America.

So I was kicked out while you were answering my question, but I think I got the end of it. So that's fine. I just want to follow up on the U.S. again, because a lot of carmakers are saying that they intend to shift to larger engines, V8 engines. Is that a mixed benefit for you in PTC in 2026? So when you quote now that Q4 was impacted by negative mix, could there be a hope that 2026, we see a positive product mix coming from the U.S.?

I mean, in general, Horst, we are not -- we are not saying no if customers insist on getting products from us that we can that are already developed and where the investment is already in place. So per definition, this has a positive impact on our PTC business. The announcement from the customers and the shift towards these, let's say, larger engines, this is not happening overnight. So at least for the first half of the year, we don't see a significant change in the call of volume from the customers. With the, let's say, new more limited visibility that the customers give us too early to make a statement for the full year. But I think in general, it would be it's a mix impact that we are, of course, happily accepting. Nevertheless, and I have to repeat what I said before, for us, it is not just about short-term benefits in making a little bit higher margin on existing products, but we would be very happy about a more balanced volume distribution to make sure that on the one hand, of course, we can materialize on our existing products, but of course, also having the right amount of cars sold for our E-Mobility applications.

Yes. Okay. That's great. Then the other one that I had that was an outperformance. I know for -- especially in the context of E-Mobility, it's difficult to talk about outperformance, but when we club PTC and E-Mobility together and we think about the like-for-like growth, is it fair to assume something like 2% outperformance? Or do you think it's higher or lower than that?

Very honest answer. We are not done yet with the final analysis on the volumes. So more details on that one.

I know it used to be under the old [ Schaeffler ] it used to be always 2% in automotive. So therefore, I was taking this 2%. So -- but if you have got no comments, that's fine. The other question -- or the last question that I had then that was on when you talk about cash out restructuring, can you remind us again what was cash out restructuring or what you have guided for cash out restructuring in '25? And you say that 2026 cash out restructuring can increase. Can you be a little bit more specific how much it would increase?

Yes. I mean we -- remember, when we had -- when we published the program on our restructuring, and we always have to see it in connection with the onetime effects we have for the integrational efforts, which are still ongoing, of course. We indicated that an amount of roughly EUR 100 million or a little north of EUR 100 million for the critical year '25, '26 million is to be expected. What we see at the moment is that the acceptance rate or our success in executing our restructuring is faster than expected, which, frankly speaking, is good news. But that, of course, also could lead to the fact that we see in '26 slightly higher one-time effects compared to last year.

So that would mean then north of EUR 50 million, right? When you say EUR 100 million over 2 years, and I'm just guessing.

No, EUR 100 million per year.

All right. Okay. So it could be a little bit more than EUR 100 million.

Yes.

Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Heiko Eber for any closing remarks.

Thank you very much. Thank you for your time. Thank you for your interest and very interesting questions. Three more things I'd like to share. So for our beloved analyst, I would love to cordially invite you for our annual analyst breakfast, which will take place on March 4 in London. Our CEO would be happy to discuss our full year results and our guidance on site in London, so you're cordially invited. Secondly, as already said at the beginning, we will enter our quiet period effectively now. And last but not least, big thank you to my wonderful team for preparing the document as usual. And now thanks for your time. Have a good evening and talk to you soon.

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now over. Thank you for choosing Chorus Call, and thank you for participating in the conference. You may now disconnect your lines. Goodbye.