SCOR SE (SCR) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
December 12, 2024
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Thomas Fossard
executiveGood morning. Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us today in the room or via the webcast for this call, 2024 Investor Day during which we're going to provide you with some updates on the SCOR strategic plan for 2026. I'm joined today by our CEO, Thierry Leger, as well by the entire SCOR executive team which will be available for chat during the break or after the presentation around drinks. For your information, the presentation today is recorded. Please take note of the disclaimer on Slide #2. On Slide 3, you've got the agenda of the afternoon. The event will be split in 2 sessions. The first 1 relates to the Life & Health strategy and the Property & Casualty outlook presented respectively by Thierry Leger and Jean-Paul Conoscente, then after a short break, Francois de Varenne will go through the finance topic. There will be opportunity to ask questions after these 2 sessions. [Operator Instructions] And with no further ado, I will hand it over to Thierry Leger, our Group CEO. Thank you.
Thierry Leger
executiveThank you, Thomas. I hope the microphone works. So hello, everyone, also from my end. And welcome to the London Stock Exchange. It's a particular pleasure for SCOR to be here today and see so many people joining us physically, but also welcome and hello to those joining us virtually. So again, great pleasure to have you all here. And today, for me, it's about 2 things. If you can just retain 2 things that will be now from today's presentation. So the first thing is we still owe you something. So we have to complete what we couldn't complete at Q3, which is we said we have completed the internal review of our reserves, but we still owe you external completion of those. So today, we would like to show you that we have actually completed the external review on the Life & Health side. The feedback is positive. I will come back. We will come back on this in a few minutes. We have positive feedback. What we have also done is we have also, again, as the external review of the P&C reserves and also that feedback is positive. And so the P&C conclusion is as last year that we had some resilience in our reserves. And what it says this year is that we have build additional resilience beyond the -- within the best estimate, of course, of our reserves. So that's a very, very important message today. So with this, I think we can really say the reserve reviews and assumption reviews in Life & Health have been completed. They have been reviewed externally and we can now draw a line and move on. And moving on for us, brings me to the second point. which is our business. Our business in P&C and Life & Health and investments, our 3 businesses, are doing well. We have always said that the underlying business even in Life & Health is doing well. The P&C business is doing exceptionally well. You will hear from Jean-Paul later get more details. And obviously, investments continue to be a strong contributor. And I'm convinced that we have everything at score to deliver considerable value in the years to come for our shareholders. The positioning of SCOR, the strategic positioning of SCOR is very clear. We start from a very, very strong Tier 1 franchise. So I've always said it, we have a franchise that is about here. And there may be 3 other ones in the market that have such a franchise. So franchise means we have access to any insurance company in any country across the world. And we have the ability to price any program we wish around the world. So that's franchise. And there are really just a few that have such an access everywhere in the world in the way SCOR has it. That's Tier 1 franchise. Our market share, however, is about here. So the difference between the 2, you shouldn't view this negatively. I think as an investor, you should look at this positively because that's the opportunity. We could double our market share, and we would still have an opportunity to grow. And so the opportunity for SCOR to grow in a profitable way in the next years to come is very significant. So for me, it all starts with our Tier 1 franchise and the potential it provides us with. We have been very clear in -- with regard to our strategy, so forward 2026 that we presented last year has presented a strategy that creates value in the years to come and leverages this Tier 1 franchise. And it consists of growing in a very clearly determined strategic way into our preferred lines of business, which are diversifying lines, profitable lines. So I'll come back to that as well. To achieve this kind of company positioning, of course, we needed to adjust our organization. And it was no simple work, and I was very pleased to have the full support of my executive team to transform also the way we are organized. We had to align our organization with actually this strategy. We needed to become a more nimble company, 1 that can take decisions faster. So what we have done is we have reduced layers. So we were up to 10 layers heavy, and we have to reduce them to 6. We have reduced the managers from 900 to 600, and we have done many other things to the organization. And this allows us now that every client is obviously about 4, 5 levels closer to me today and the whole organization moved closer to our clients. And at the same time, we are making sure that decisions are being made at the front by the teams closest to the clients. So the whole turning around of the company was based on this reorganization and also creating values that go with it. And this is important because we want to be a solutions provider for our clients. And to be a solutions provider, you have to be fast, reactive, innovative. And that's the culture we are building. And of course, the whole thing is embedded in a strong governance and again, strong management that goes with it. Over the last 12, 18 months, we have actually achieved a lot. You have heard the word deliver for me already in the past and I will hopefully repeat it several times, and my colleagues will because with forward 2026, we were very clear that it is all about delivery. And even if we hit roadblocks like the Life & Health review this year. We accept and we do what needs to be done, but we deliver, right? So we have done it faster than foreseen. We have done it by Q3. We didn't wait for the full year-end, and we have added an external review. That's what I mean by delivery. We have aligned the structure. We have done the organization. We have said that we want to save EUR 150 million of costs. Our message to you today is that what -- the EUR 150 million that we wanted to achieve, by the end of '26. We now think we can achieve that 1 year early. So that means we are really accelerating some of the delivery that we have. Life & Health, you've probably understood by now that there are things that need to change. And also there, we have done a lot. You will hear, of course, much more for me. but there are things in place today already just a few months after the Q2 results that will show you that we do what we say, and that's important to me. And 1 thing I'm particularly proud of is the fourth element, which is the capital allocation. I think that what we have changed is to the fastest is moving to capital around in the company. So today, we are not saying 50-50 between Life and Health and then tell the businesses come back at the end of the year and tell us how you did. We actually are looking at portfolios below, and we are very clearly and strategically deciding where we would like to grow more and were less. And we have said that already under Forward '26 last year, but we can see today already successes in this regard. Of course, particularly in P&C, where I think this leaning into the hard market in a very strategic way has paid off today, but you will hear more about this. So to come back on the reserve review just a second. So we have a P&C review done now externally as well. So internal review done external review done it's completed. The opinion is strong. And as Francois and I have said already many times, we think we have built significantly more buffer. So the journey to our EUR 300 million buffer building has been shortened almost by 2/3, and we are very pleased with that achievement. And it really shows the strength of our underlying P&C business in the state it is currently. On the Life & Health side, internal review completed external view completed with a very positive statement from Milliman, Francois will come back on this one. So as I said, this allows us to turn the page to move on. And forward '26 is the plan and the journey we are on since last year. So we consider this chapter of Life & Health now closed. It does reset the basis from which we're going to grow on the life and health side, very clearly. We acknowledge that, and you will see it through multiple flights. But from this new base is in Life & Health and from the current basis in P&C. We can now move on and deliver on our forward 2026 plan, which consisted of 2 things. If you remember, 1 was creating value and the other 1 was modernizing SCOR. Creating value. We expressed it a year ago by 9% economic value growth per year. And today, we are particularly pleased and proud actually to be able to confirm that we think that we can grow our economic value in the next 2 years by 9% per year. So very pleased about this outcome. And if I look at the value creation, the way it's going to work. You will hear more about Life & Health, but it's all about creating new business on the 1 side that is more profitable than it was in the past and have a stronger, more stringent in-force management compared to the past. So that's on the Life & Health side. Again, you will hear more about it on the P&C side. It's all about doing more of what we have done so far. The strategy that we have thought about a year ago is working extremely well. And we think that 2025 will be another excellent year where we can grow again in a very profitable but also strategic way and that's very, very positive for us. And the investments have been a strong and stable contributor in the past and we expect that to remain. Which brings me to modernizing Scar preparing for the future, which I said a year ago consists mainly of these 4 areas capital allocation. I talked about it already, but it's 1 area where we can more and more -- where we more and more refine our system. So we have concluded by the end of this year, our performance management under IFRS 17. This is something we have developed the whole year. will tell you more about it. We will look at in 2025 to how we generate capital on the Solvency II. That's another project we will launch. All of this will allow us to become more and more refined in the way we look at our capital allocation and how we actually use our capital. We are maybe not as rich in capital as other companies but it does actually force us to use our capital very, very wisely. And so that's the way we would like to treat it. And then we have ALM. We said that we need to move from a more static ALM that we had in the past that works pretty well over the last 10 years. But we need now in the new environment that is much more volatile we need to adapt our ALM. And we are moving gradually to a more dynamic ALM. We have hired a team. We have a framework that works, and we have done -- by the end of the year already, we have taken the first actions in the space of ALM that will also look favorably, I guess, for example, under our Solvency II sensitivities. We have said that we would like to grow our risk partnerships. You will remember, risk partnerships is monetizing our expertise in our Tier 1 franchise. So it's allowing site car partners, for example to participate in our growth, growth beyond what our balance sheet can accept. So that's 1 that's working very well. And last but not least, tech and data. So tech and data for us, it's obviously at the core of who we are. Scar and reinsurance is a data business. And it's very clear that data is for us a huge opportunity and the new ways of building data platforms and the new way of analyzing data provide us with tools for the future that will enable us, again, to gain in efficiencies, but also design better products, better monitoring, better risk management. So for us, second data is a real future differentiator for in the long term. So these are things we have done already, but there's still a way to go. I do not want to go too much into the details of this slide. But here, you have some of the numbers. It will be more in Francois' part, but I would still like to offer 3 numbers that are important to me. So we are happy to today confirm that economic value growth is 9%. We can confirm the 9% growth for the next 2 years. We also, of course, keep our solvency target between 185% and 220%, and it's also very clear, and I will be very open here that our ambition is not to be somewhere in the middle, but to be in the upper part of that range. And thirdly, the 12% minimum return that we have panic, return on equity. It's also 1 that we were very pleased today to confirm for the next years. And again, as I said, Francois will explain to you more details later. So with that, I would like to switch to the business side. Life & Health first, and then Jean-Paul will talk about P&C. On the Life & Health side, of course, this is my first presentation as CEO of Life & Health. And I hope, by the way, it's going to be also the -- my last one. I have no intention to stick around for much longer. I would like still to share with you a little bit how it feels, right? When you move 1 level down and you become a business unit leader, it's different. It's a very different business. So of course, I could not run it in a proper fashion lots of shortcomings, the way you run it. But it did allow me to get much closer to our Life & Health business, really look more into the details of how this business is run and also understand the people better, the culture. Sometimes you think you know, but then when you see it, you see that sometimes things are a little bit different. So for me, obviously, it helped a lot to accelerate what you will hear on the next slide, this whole transformation to accelerate it massively. And also to be today in a situation where a lot of what you read is already done and we have already moved on, right? So that's important. But the second point is, it showed me actually what type of leader do we need for the next few years. And so in terms of leaders today, I'm pretty sure who -- what type of profile we need for this position. And I hope that in January, we can announce the name to everyone. So that's the target. And for me, that's obviously a very important step because you know that I put a lot of emphasis on my leadership team. And that is obviously a very important missing piece today. But again, I'm very optimistic to be able to find the right person. So then let me for the first and last time, present Life & Health more in detail. So the 3-step plan that I have announced at Q2. So you remember, this is also when I replaced the CEO of Life & Health. We said we want to review the reserves. That's done, right? So internally reviewed externally reviewed done, so we can move on there. The new business strategy, we worked the whole summer on the new business strategy. You will hear in a minute about the new business strategy. But this 1 is also done. So we have to define what we want to do. And since several weeks or even months, we're actually already running in this direction. So already today and yesterday, we are writing our business according to the new standard of new business, again, more in a few minutes. On the in-force side, you can see, I feel we are there. My team thinks I'm a bit harsh to say only 50%. I do believe that -- the challenge we have, and that we come back on this one, the challenge we have today under IFRS 17 and Solvency II is much, much higher than it was under IFRS 4 and Solvency II. And so I think this challenge is maybe not fully yet recognized. I'm not saying in the industry, but maybe within SCOR, I try to be very realistic here. So I have a very high expectation about how we run such an in-force -- and I will tell you what the building blocks of such an in-force business are. So I will start with new business first and then move to in-force and try to be fast, and you can ask questions in the break if you want more details. So this is already telling you everything about the shift of our new business. So it's shifting from the from the column on the left shift to the come on the right. So this is the shift from where we are in 2023 and where I want the business to be by 2026. And you can see it's a massive switch today. In 2023, our business was more than 90% traditional protection business, traditional protection business. I will give you a bit more detail about what type of business that was and very little other business, a bit of longevity, but almost no structured solutions. And I think that was a mistake. I think that, that was a mistake of the previous mention. We should have moved in a more determined rate into the financial solutions space. I think there are many good reasons for it. I'll come back to that in a second. But you can see that by shifting the business around, I will create a mix that in the end will be better diversified and have a better profitability than the column to the left. The column on the middle shows that we were already moving in that direction with Forward '26. But what I found when I took over in July is that we were actually very, very slow moving. I'm not sure we would have reached any of these targets that written -- and now we are really accelerating and the teams are being hired and so on. So let me go a bit into the details of the 3 elements. So this is protection. Protection is a business very -- this is -- competition is high. The need for services is very high. it just generally comes with lower margins. I'm not saying it's coming with very low margins. If you pick and choose the right business, you can make a living out of that one. But it's not high-margin business, definitely not. And it's very competitive. And the guys expect more and more services. And so -- but they will never pay for that service, right? So they just tell us, if you want to keep the treaty, you will have to offer us all of this. So cost always an issue in that business. So what we have done are several things, but the most important piece of our digit is we set the minimum margin for the business. So we just don't accept business anymore below the margin. I'll give you an example, we would not write any economically negative business anymore. That simple. But of course, that washes out a lot of the low-performing business. And by just not writing this, it does have a positive impact. on the return overall. We have also decided to stop writing the very, very long term, and I really insist on the very, very long term. So I'm not talking 20 years duration. I'm talking 30, 40 years plus duration of living benefits type of solutions. So that's imagine this is like a dental product where you guarantee dental care for somebody's life from 58 to 50 until 95, so 80 years. This kind of product. I think this is not the type of product that anyone should offer. And so the teams now to remove ourselves from those offers. The problem with those very, very long-term businesses are that they create theoretical profits over 80 years, not just 10 or 20. So that creates CSM isn't it, but it also costs a lot of capital but it does CSM, right? And so it's very unclear, very intransparent for investors to actually understand. So all I'm telling you is the CSM and CSM. That's my story today to all of you. The CSM and CSM. So if somebody has 100 CSM and the other does 100 CSM, you cannot know whether it's the same. I think you have an idea if you divide new business CSM through by the risk adjustment, you can have an idea of the profitability and of the quality of that new business CSM, it's 1 indicator, right? But the CSM and CSM. So there's more profitable CSM and less profitable CSM. So we are definitely trying, as you can see with the plus 2% there. that we are moving our traditional section business to more valuable type of business. And this means a lot, right? We have looked at every country, every line of business in every country, right, during summer break. And I still feel sorry for some of the colleagues because it really spoiled the holidays, but it was a very interesting exercise despite that because it really showed very quickly where actually the market is where our products are where the profitability. So we have taken actions along the 4 buckets here. So you can see, for example, maximize capital efficiencies. So there are some countries where we just have huge durations. And the capital efficiency is the whole challenge there. So the local balance sheet and how can score headquarters of MG, protect the balance sheet. And so there's lots of ways to handle this. We also have markets where we like our positioning, but we are not efficient anymore services are required by clients. So we are on the real cost pressure, for example. So there are multiple challenges here, but all we did was act in countries and in lines of business. That's what we did. So for example, one decision we took under the turnaround countries is that we decided to close South Africa to new business. So we are stopping all our new business and our activity in South Africa, which allows us, on the 1 hand, to do a saving of people that we have there, and we do is actually very little because that's a market where the margins were low. -- and the volatility high. So somewhat, we decided that the profile -- risk reward profile was not the right 1 at least for us. I'm not saying nobody else gets it. We couldn't get there. And so we decided to exit. Another important decision we took was in Central Eastern Europe. So we had people a bit everywhere, and actually realizing very little new business, and we found a lot of inefficiencies there. So we have decided to create a centralized what we call international desk. And so the new thing will be that the small international desk will cover a lot of countries, and we'll be able in a much more efficient way to pick and choose the markets and the type of business we run there right. So that's just 2 examples there would be many more. As a result, we reduced our new business CSM. And if you look carefully at the color coding day, we see that we don't reduce mortality that much. We reduced mainly the mobility one. And why is that? That has -- is not the minimum margin. That has to do with these very long-term types of businesses that we stop doing. They are so rich, so rich in CSM, but so poor in return, yes. So that's why it's not -- it's a good picture, you should be happy about it because with less exposure, we will probably do more profits tomorrow. This 1 is all about longevity. Longevity is a relatively simple game for us. So far, we were in the U.K. And U.K. remains for us an important market, and we will still do deals in the U.K. However, the most effective set of between the cash flows of mortality and longevity happened in the same country. So for us, the perfect longevity book would be if it would perfectly match the mortality book distribution. Now you know today, we are not -- we have 100% almost of longevity in the U.K., and we have 50% of our exposures in the U.S. So you can see that discrepancy is what I'm trying to get at. So we need to grow outside of the U.K. to move into all those countries where we have mortality business, which is where we will achieve the highest amount of diversification with the mortality business. So for us, of course, the U.S. is attractive. I think we have a very good positioning there. And part of our strategy is to grow in a very determined way our longevity book in the U.S., and we think the U.S. market is kind of ready for it. The good news is that in December, we have been able to close 2 transactions, that are actually perfectly in line with our strategy. So it's kind of early signs of optimism with regard to longevity. On the Financial Solutions one. So we have been absent in that market. So when people ask me or are the clients waiting for you and so on. The thing is simple, right? When you have relationships with clients, they actually like to do business with you. They only go to somebody else for such as structured solutions if you are not able to provide the solution. Tomorrow, we will provide that solution to our client side. And it's important solutions because they're strategic. So these solutions are tailored to the needs of the client. It forces enhances the relationship with the client. And the additional benefit compared to the traditional business is -- they are financial solutions. They don't come with all these services. So ultimately, the returns on this business is bigger. And we think that -- it's a bit misleading the picture. So we are not today at this middle at the left column, that was our ambition on the Forward '26. So last year, we said by '26 we will grow to this extent. What we now say is we will do almost twice that. So a much bigger ambition. In reality, today, we have almost none of that business. So it's a very ambitious growth curve. To achieve it I think the client side is ready. The demand is there, but we need to build our team. So what we did first is bring all those people at SCOR that have structured solutions capabilities, worked all of them together under the leadership of our most experienced Life & Health person. So that person now has the task actually to build the team, hire people when necessary and grow the business. at the fastest pace possible. And I can talk more about this. So when you now just consider the tool, so a protection business where we want to increase by, let's say, around 2 percentage points to business overall, where we will add diversification where we add longevity and financial solutions. Our aim of our new business, Life & Health is actually to create an additional ROE on the new business side of at least 2%. Personally, I think we can reach 3% and more, we'll see. It depends a bit on where exactly we find our growth opportunities. But in the best possible case, it can be well above 3% in terms of improvement of our IFRS 17 ROE new business compared to where we are today. So that's important. Let me switch to in-force. On the info side, it's important because I talked about the new business. But of course, the new business, you imagine you have a fire today and the fire slowly goes down. Isn't it? So you always need to put more wood to it, so it sticks, right? So what we do is we -- that fire burns today, but it's relative -- it's good quality wood, but what we are doing, we are adding better quality wood, right? That's what we do with the new business. But it's going to transform the in-force only over time. So it takes 5, 10, 15 years for the new business to be massively contributing to the in-force of tomorrow. So all I told you in the last minute is great. I think it's the way to go, but it's going to create value for all of us only down the road, right, 5, 10 years down the road. The value that we have today and that we will have next year, '25, '26 all comes out of the in-force, of course, in Life and Health through the amortization of our CSM stock. That's how it's happening. So it's absolutely crucial for us to strengthen the governance around our in-force management. So we have decided to centralize our team, the team for in-force management that creates guidelines, best practices, monitoring all of those KPIs, of course, will be done or have been developed already for that type of business. Those KPIs will, of course, become the objectives of the leaders in that space. So it will be -- it will have a bonus impact, of course. So we make sure everything aligns nicely down to regular reporting to the executive committee. When you look at in-force, it's about end-to-end, right? And I think in the past, we have maybe been a bit different pieces. And so what we do are 2 things. So we bring everything together in this circle. That's the first thing we do. And the circle really means, yes, it starts with underwriting and then it goes through the contract and technical accounting, all of that. We do all of that properly. We wherever possible, we try to even better. But you make it a circle. So this is this virtuous circle that we would like to create and need to create and strengthen in Life & Health in-force management. So this should really be the circle that's going to help us to improve additionally our in-force management. And we will embed -- that's the second element. We will embed the whole in-force management on a new data platform. You know that we have hired a new tech leader. We have hired a new data person. And the 2 together have now taken over a project that is to build and starting with the U.S. Life & Health to create the platform in which we will embed this virtuous circle, right? So this is going to be a data rich. Very, very data rich. You mentioned that all experience analysis data, they are technical accounting, all submissions are in there, everything is in there, reserving and so on. So this tool and this new platform will allow us to do analytics in a way we haven't been able to do before. So we will improve the process step by step. We will create circle, and we will embed it into a data analytics platform. So 3 things that, in my view, will create a whole new level of insights in that business. In terms of track record, it's not like we are starting at 0. So this is numbers we have been asked for many times from all of you. So this is the U.S. So over the last 8 years, we have done -- we have launched 78 actions, 78 actions over 8 years. They have impacted 407 treaties, all in the U.S. The outcome of it was that 55% of those actions triggered ended in rate increases, so where the client accepted our rate increase or at least maybe a little bit less than we wanted. Sometimes you have to negotiate that, but let's say, greater increase. On 45 of the treaties or the actions, we have -- the clients have recaptured the business, with economically sometimes anyway for us is the best outcome. And in average, it took 6 months. From the moment we triggered the action until the client decision was made. On 10% of all these actions, we actually had to go into arbitration. So I know that arbitration is a big topic, but only 10% of all of these are in arbitration. And of course, these are the bigger cases. These are the more complex cases. But these 10% actions in arbitration are obviously all included in the numbers that I show here, yes. So that's our track record. And obviously, we continue to build on that track record. But now we want to really enhance the whole platform in the way I have said before. So what has been successful so far should become even more targeted and more successful tomorrow. I've talked about the efficiency. So of course, we have a new strategy in Life & Health, and we have less new business. We want to do more financial solutions than others. So it's very clear that we had to take costs out of the system. So we went through relatively harsh exercise over the last months, and we will take out EUR 30 million of costs on the Life & Health side. So we have already realized EUR 20 million of savings by the end of this year and we realized the other -- it's a bit more than EUR 20 million, and we other EUR 5 million to EUR 10 million in 2025. So that should help us with the profitability on the Life & Health side. So when you bring it a bit together and again, Francois will talk much more about it. Let's start again with the stock of CSM in Life & Health EUR 4.7 billion. This will run off at around -- this will be amortized at around EUR 300 million per year, let's say, EUR 0.3 billion per year. We will create new business CSM of around EUR 0.4 billion. And you can see the new business is bigger than the amortized CSM. So over time, we will see CSM stock growing. Now this is another important slide for all of you. So the CSM release that from our CSM stock was assumed last year at 8%, right, amortization, 8%. And we are now telling you it's going to be 6.5%. And of course, the question is, why only 6.5%. And there are already 2 reasons for it. The first is the Life & Health review. So the CSM stock today has a different profile than what it was before. But also, we admit that we had a bit of learning as well through IFRS 17, and it turns out that we probably had overstated a bit overestimated the 8%. So for 2 reasons, we are correcting it down now to 6.5%. However, what this picture also shows to the right on the graph is that you can see that the new business, now the new business mix will have more business like structured solutions that run off faster. Also longevity is running off faster. So you can expect, again, this is not going to be next year, but you can expect over time, right, as we write that business that runs off faster, you can expect that amortization rate to go move up slowly again. So that's the positive effect even if, of course, for you, probably 6.5% is a bit of a disappointment. So overall, Life & Health numbers have been updated almost across the board. So the new business CSM is slightly lower, but I told you that by '26, '27, we would like to be back to the levels of '23, '24. At that time, the same CSM will be higher quality. So just again, so whatever it is that we show, it's going to be higher quality CSM. And the other numbers, you can see I won't go into the details because Francois will do that much better than I do. So again, just conclude for Life & Health, Life & Health, a few things you're going to do, move to higher margins, new business mix. This will help us massively in the long term to create the value in Life & Health. We strengthened in a very determined way strategic way, our in-force management we improve our competitiveness through a reduction of costs. And there is obviously a very, very strong focus on cash flows. Francois will come back on the cash flows in Life & Health. We are not satisfied with the cash flow profiles we have delayed again by 1 year, the breakeven of our Life & Health cash flows. But I hope you will be with us when we detect things we don't like. Usually, they improve at some point. I can promise that new Life & Health CEO will have cash flow generation very high on his -- her So I wanted to add on -- end on this 1 and ask Jean-Paul to let us know how well P&C is doing. Jean-Paul, please.
Jean-Paul Conoscente
executiveThank you, Thierry, and hello, everyone. Let's take a closer look at the P&C business. I would like to remind you of our P&C strategy, which can be summarized in 2 guiding principles leveraging our Tier 1 franchise to lean into the favorable market conditions, while balancing our exposures. I will now explain to you how we already exceeded our initial Forward '26 targets focusing on 3 key areas: growing our reinsurance portfolio and diversifying lines such as marine, engineering, IDI and international casualty, growing our SPS engineering portfolio, leveraging our expertise and proven track record to ride the wave of growing energy transition investments. Third, accelerating development of alternative solutions across reinsurance and SPS. As you will see on this slide, we have already delivered and exceeded our target on these 3 key areas. 2024 insurance and reinsurance market conditions were very attractive with high levels of price adequacy and strong market underwriting discipline. Leveraging our Tier 1 franchise, we have been able to strategically increase our position on targeted placements and segments putting us significantly ahead of Forward '26 targets. We're very pleased with the diversification achieved in 2024 and the excellent P&C results as regularly reported throughout the year. Starting with reinsurance. We have accelerated growth in our targeted diversifying lines. In engineering, the market is still experiencing legacy issues from the soft market years. So the reinsurance terms reinform while the direct rates is more than adequate. We continue to see attractive opportunities in 2025 and intend to seize them. In IDI, we're a global leader. And we're present most -- across most of the insurance value chain, leveraging our decades of experience in this highly technical business and seizing new opportunities in both emerging and mature markets. In Marine, we have leading positions in a highly disciplined and very attractive market. Our product range is broad and not limited only to cargo and hole, but also includes offshore, downstream, P&I, Inland Marine and other sophisticated products. The significant underwriting expertise gives us access and the ability to underwrite complex higher-margin business. On the SBS side, in construction, we have doubled our Forward '26 growth target with a particular focus on new energies where we have already doubled the premium volume. Our growth has been driven by several key factors. We have actively invested in writing local business in the U.S. to take advantage of the various economic stimulus around the inflation Reduction Act. This has allowed us to diversify our portfolio, which was focused on heavy infrastructure projects. In the new energy sector, we have seen a resurgence of nuclear power projects where we have significant technical expertise. We have also seen a significant volume of battery energy storage business with more mature technology and larger projects. Taken together, these efforts underline our commitment to driving the construction in new energy sectors forward, ensuring sustainable growth and innovation. Finally, the alternative solutions area, we have already almost achieved our Forward '26 target in '24, which was to double the premium between 2023 and 2026. While these segments have been areas of focused growth, we have also maintained strong underwriting discipline on our climate exposed business and our U.S. casualty. We have grown our cat portfolio in line with the overall portfolio growth, allowing us to manage our portfolio within 10% cat ratio. On U.S. Casualty, we have maintained a prudent approach keeping the allocated capital to U.S. Casualty flat year-on-year. I would also like to highlight that all the substantial growth has been achieved whilst meeting our profitability targets and accelerating the buildup of reserving buffers throughout 2024. As a conclusion, I'm happy to share that we have already delivered on many of our Forward '26 targets ahead of 2026, and we are confident that there's still plenty of opportunities for us to deliver further in the next 2 years. We wanted to do now a deeper dive on alternative solutions, which remains a core strategic development over the next 2 years. Firstly, on the market outlook, we are pleased to confirm that the increase of our targets for 2026 aligned very well with a vibrant market environment, offering particularly attractive prospects. We continue to see demand generally for alternative solution products. One of the key assumptions we had made was that the continued hardening of the market will result in greater risk retention by insurers who then have stronger needs for capital optimization solutions. We are focused on capital relief solutions such as solvency quota share reinsurance or retrospective reinsurance protecting against the deviation of reserves. The growth of our reinsurance Alternative Solutions portfolio is primarily focused on these 2 products. We have also witnessed strong demand for earnings protection and cash flow management, driven by the increased frequency of losses especially in nat cat losses. However, our appetite for those products remains limited to highly structured solutions. One of the key success factors to expanding our AS book has been our ability to leverage our global footprint and provide these tailor-made solutions to our clients across Europe, U.S., Canada, Latin America and Asia. It's also worth noting that the development of AS is not limited to reinsurance. We have also significantly increased our SBS portfolio, and particularly leveraging favorable onshore captive regulations in Europe including new regulations in France by offering structured reinsurance solutions for captives. In conclusion, we believe the conditions remain in place for further acceleration. And as a result, we are revising our development target to a tripling of the AS premium between 2023 and 2026 to fully capitalize on the strong momentum. Looking now at how AS contributes to our IFRS 17 results. We provide a quick introduction to the impact of various contract structures particularly on insurance revenue and our combined ratio. Without going into too much detail, yes, premium are composed of 3 parts: a fixed commission, which is always returned to the client. Profit commission, also known in IFRS 17 as NDIC or nondistinctive investment component, which is also always returned to the client in the form of a claim payment or commission depending on the level of losses. And lastly, the remainder of the premium that we refer to as risk premium, this remaining part is what constitutes insurance revenue in IFRS 17. Since the portion of the premium returned to the client -- sorry, since a portion of the premium returned to the client in the form of fixed and profit commission is excluded from insurance revenue. The IFRS 17 combined ratio is limited to the losses tied to the insurance revenue or the risk premium. As a result, everything else being equal, the IFRS 17 combined ratio for a given AS contract will be lower then the IFRS 4 combined ratio, which takes into account the entirety of the incoming and outgoing flows. Finally, looking at the -- we'd also like to bring more clarity on our P&C growth assumptions detailing how the EGPI growth translates into the insurance revenue under IFRS 17. We have seen previously that only around 40% of the AS EGPI is recognized as revenue. Whilst the same mechanism applies to the rest of the P&C portfolio, roughly 80% of the EGPI is recognized as revenue with the remaining 20% corresponding to fixed commissions and NDIC. We also need to keep in mind that the growth of the insurance revenue followed the premium acquisition patterns. For P&C growth -- for P&C, the growth of the EGPI feeds through the insurance revenue over 2 years on average. It's also worth noting that the insurance revenue can be influenced by large multiyear contracts and late premium updates. Our 2025 insurance revenue growth is impacted in particularly by the commutation of 1 large contract with an estimated impact of 2 points. Taking into account the portfolio mix and the attractive opportunities remaining for 2025 and '26, we are confident in to deliver a 4% to 6% annual growth over the Forward '26 plan period. Finally, looking at the market outlook. We believe 2025 will continue to offer SCOR very good opportunities to deliver on our objectives. This will enable us to maintain our focus on profitability while pursuing growth in targeted areas. This should lead us to a double-digit EGPI growth in 2025 compared to 2024. Let's dive now into the reinsurance market before moving on to SPS. For reinsurance, we see 2025 as a continuation of 2024 with high price adequacy despite growing pricing pressure on luxury programs. At a market level, we believe there is more balance between demand and supply. However, there are other factors at play. Despite solid returns on equity for the P&C reinsurance sector, 2024 has been another active cat year in terms of losses, particularly in nat cat. This encourages underwriting discipline amongst reinsurers and other participants. Looking at the more recent losses, Milton appears to be a small event than initially thought, whilst estimates for Helen are -- have been increasing. Both together remain manageable for the sector, but contribute to the increased risk aversion and consequently, increased demand for reinsurance. As regards property rates, we expect them to remain broadly stable with significant increases on loss-affected programs and reductions on those 3 programs. Early indications from the January renewals appear to support this view. Keeping in mind, it's 2 weeks to go. We remain focused on maintaining terms and conditions and notably attachment points on Cat XL preserving progress made in the last few years. We are pleased that most reinsurance structures submitted to date do not show significant changes year-on-year. On U.S. Casualty, whilst many reinsurers called significant improvements these don't seem to materialize to the extent we required. We will, therefore, maintain our cautious approach to U.S. Casualty. We do, however, see attractive but limited opportunities in international casualty and intend to pursue those. For SBS, the story is very similar. Most lines have seen a very strong hardening since 2017, while with softening starting only this year. As a result, price adequacy remains high. In terms of conditions are holding even if there are modest price reductions. Our focus for SBS is on protecting our profitability through diversification, and managing the various cycles across lines who are at different stages and therefore, require a different approach. In conclusion, we move confidently in 2025 with 3 goals in mind, continue to deliver on Forward '26 ambitions with a particular focus on accelerating alternative solutions, strengthened the resilience of our business through diversification and active management of volatility, maintain high level of client engagements through solutions, partnerships and innovation. And with this, I hand it back to you, Thomas.
Thomas Fossard
executiveThank you, so let's move to the first Q&A session. Please restrict your questions to the topics which have just been presented. For those attending through the webcast, please use the text box and we'll take your question when we've got the opportunity. So with that, we're going to take the question in the room. We would like to go first. Vinit and then Ivan.
Vinit Malhotra
analystVinit from Mediobanca. So Thierry, 1 for you. The very clear example you gave of franchise and market share gap. And even last year when you first presented, it looked like the CSM growth, and I know you said CSM is not the right -- the best measure. The economic value growth is not really being driven by that CSM book was not last year and even now is not really changing. So I'm just keen to hear your thoughts on -- do you think that the ambition that you presented is actually being reflected in how the business growth is there in that metric that we can track. And then if I can ask on financial solutions, please, and also then 1 for Jean-Paul or 3 questions, sorry. The financial solutions in life. In other entities, one of the risks seems to be lapses once you take on those, say, XXX reserve or whatever the contract you might take. I mean, is such a rapid growth I mean, free from that risk? Or have you thought about how to manage those things. And just for Jean-Paul, 1 question is, you mentioned that loss-free rates are under pressure. But probably that's a metric that the market wants to look at first. So would you still say that the market is as hard and attractive as you have been saying.
Thierry Leger
executiveYes, actually, you're absolutely right. It's a very good observation on the CSM stock growth because you referred to this 1 isn't it that actually the CSM stock does not really grow technically, but you have to look very much into detail. We do actually believe that with the updated plan, it grows a little bit more, but you cannot really see it from the numbers we presented. So now we see actually a bit of growth wise before we thought probably going to be more or less stable. Whether that's good news or bad news, right? I think the good news is, if you want to grow the stock by 1 percentage point, we need to create EUR 50 million new business CSM that amortization, right? And that -- if you want to go by 2%, it's EUR 100 million more, right? So if you have a CSM amortization of EUR 300 million, you can already see, right, there's a limit to how much growth you can generate. So if you wanted us to create, let's say, 10% or let's say, 5% growth of the EUR 5 billion we would have to create EUR 250 million difference between the amortization and the new business, and that seems unreasonably large. So I think you should not have too much expectations anyway in the growth of the CSM stock. But we do actually now with the updated 1 grow a bit more. The good news, however, at least for us, is that we will grow economic value through equity building, right? So that's mainly the profits that turned into capital for us. And that's a very powerful message. As you know, we were very clear with Francois already last year that we think that the contribution or the share of equity in the DVG overall, right, should increase. And that's what we're going to see. So that means actually we are having profits, healthy profits, and this should enable us to generate that capital that's going to increase the equity. So I think it's a good thing. On structured solutions, I honestly think that structured solutions are also attractive because -- the risk profile is very different from traditional. Traditional, you have lapse rates, you have mortality, morbidity of all these elements. Structured Solutions are many different solutions. And so the impact comes from many different things. You were referring to, for example, lapses. I mean we even offer kind of mass labs cover. I mean, explicit so that we lean into sometimes even certain risks that otherwise we would run away from. But in a very structured way, in a very clearly defined way, we can even make money with that. But lapse risk can be completely structured away in other solutions that we have in financial solutions. So I would not simplify alternative solutions to lapse risk. So it can be that there is some exposure to it. Sometimes it's 100% of the exposure, but a lot of alternative solutions in Life & Health that have no lapse risk whatsoever. So that, I think, is attractive because it does actually add elements of risks that we otherwise don't have that much off in Life & Health. And it really extends our diversification.
Jean-Paul Conoscente
executiveAnd to your question, Vinit, on the profitability of the business and the pricing pressure, I think what we've seen is significant middle double-digit rate increases over the past 2, 3 years across most lines of business in P&C leading to a significant profitable portfolio that we've started seeing in 2024, and we believe will continue in 2025. I mean, Francois will go more into this in his section on the reserving and the buildup of buffers, but we see the business today performing significantly better than the 87 net combined ratio that we have as a maximum target. So -- and we think this is going to continue in 2025. So the price decreases we're starting to see is reinsurers results have been quite good over the past 2 years. Insurance results have been mixed over that period. And so clients are looking for some giveback from reinsurers to insurers, especially when they've been lot stream. So the rate decreases we're talking about on most programs is between 0% and 5%, sometimes between 5% and 10%. But given the level of profitability we see in the business, that's very manageable. Also, we see loss-affected programs having still significant rate increases. A good example is programs that were impacted by the Eastern European floods this summer have seen high double-digit rate increases to their program this year. So I think it's still a mixture, and this is why, overall, we believe, is more or less stable. And that's why we believe the profitability of the P&C business will remain similar to what we see in 2024.
Thierry Leger
executiveAnd we're also a little bit different in the way that our portfolio is more diversified than a typical reinsurer. So we don't have a typical cat first and second and third. And then we also do other lines. Actually, Cat for us is standing right side-by-side with all the other risks. So when we grow with the client, it's usually just across all the lines, and that gives us actually a good buffer as well and we are increasingly doing that since 18 months to really grow into these other lines, and we think it's going to help us also when the market softens.
Thomas Fossard
executiveOkay. I think that Ivan was the next one.
Ivan Bokhmat
analystIt's Ivan Bokhmat from Barclays. I think my first question would be on the -- I think it's a very interesting point you've made Thierry on the quality of CSM, and that goes back to the 9% economic value target. I'm just wondering if we could translate that into quality of IFRS earnings and maybe a change in the ROE profile within some form of a foreseeable future? Do we need to see that improvement 5 years down the line, 10 years? And how do you think about that? And maybe related to that, is that change in the quality of CSM will be reflected in the management KPIs? How can we see that? And another question on Life & Health. So the plan to grow more in financial solutions and in longevity. I'm just wondering if you are still competing with the same group of peers there? Is that -- are you not going more against other financial institutions, a broader group of players where competition, in fact, will be higher and not lower. And maybe 1 more question that I have for JP. So throughout this year, you've been showing the technical margin have been improving at renewables by 1.4 points. But we can't see that in the combined ratio guidance in the new plan. I was just wondering how does that all -- that mix translates into unchanged guidance?
Thierry Leger
executiveYes. So the quality of CSM and we don't have a walk to offer and maybe that's something we can think about at some point in time. But what it really means, you're absolutely right. Over time, this will come through better ROE -- higher ROE. So if you have an ROE of 12% today, right, and you improve the quality of CSM in going forward that ROE will grow. So that's my message, right? Because with the same amount of profit, we'll have less capital against it. That's higher quality, CSM that I was referring to, and it will have an impact. We have no walk in this regard. And all I gave you as an indication is it's going to be visible in very tiny little bit over the next years. But until it's really visible, it's going to probably take 5 to 10 years. That's why I said today, our retention is on the in-force because that's really where we need to protect and realize the value tomorrow. On Life & Health. So the competitive environment is in longevity is very broad. But like 2 groups of competitors. One group is that group that's interested in the assets mainly in the assets and then this is the other group that is more interested in the longevity biometric risk. So we are in the camp of longevity biometric risk because under Solvency II, the asset risk doesn't really make sense. So -- and IFRS 17 doesn't really show nicely. And so you probably need another accounting form and another regulatory environment to like it. It really doesn't work properly. But the biometric risk that we get through these swaps, right, that we do, that actually shows quite nicely shows quite good returns. I'll be honest, however, longevity is not a high technical margin business. It's actually low technical margin business because indeed, the competition is high. But that low technical margin together with a huge diversification benefit it does have is a very, very interesting and attractive addition to our business. So it's really complementary. If you would build stand-alone, stand-alone with no mortality, no nothing, just longevity, it will be highly unattractive let's just face -- it is attractive for us because it comes together with mortality. And so in that sense, in that space where you need people that have a lot of mortality, right, and not so much longevity and -- those would be competitors to us. But you will appreciate that the field that I show you has already dramatically reduced. So I think there are deals to be done today. On the Alternative Solutions side, that's very different. A lot of -- some of the deals are competitive, where they offer it to multiple reinsurers then you're in a fully competitive environment. Then usually, you can win through price and speed. If it's speed, we have a good chance. If it's price, probably, we have less opportunity -- but a lot of our relationships are strong and not every deal is competitive. So again, these are tailored deals. Sometimes the client doesn't even want to go public with an issue that the client has. And therefore, we come in handy as a good relationship, a good partner and can provide solutions. So this is the landscape there. Again, I expect in the first 1, 2, 3 years, quite a lot of low-hanging fruits. And then, of course, from a higher base, at some point, right, it's going to be a bit different to grow very similar to P&C.
Jean-Paul Conoscente
executiveAnd on your question on P&C profitability, I mean, as I mentioned before, what we see today is the actual underlying profitability of the business is significantly below the 87 net combined ratio. But this has allowed us to accelerate the buildup of buffers in our reserve. As I mentioned, Francois will deal with this in his presentation. And why we believe that we maintain that target going forward for '25. So I think it's a question that Francois will probably a better answer. .
Thierry Leger
executiveIt's probably better if you wait for the second. You can ask the same question again to Francois.
Thomas Fossard
executiveOkay. Then we'll go to and then Kamran.
Faizan Lakhani
analystFaizan calling from HSBC. Given your updated forward plan for the business mix for Life & Health if we were to take that, what is the sort of CSM profile or amortization on the new business plan? Second question is you talked about diversification within the Life and L3 book, given the fact that you have quite a large benefit on the diversification already, does the business mix help you on that front Solvency II? Or are you already at a very sort of optimized position there?
Thierry Leger
executiveYes. Thank you for that. So the business mix I mean today, I cannot answer your question very clearly, right? But I gave you an indication, right, that the amortization rate will increase. So -- but we don't -- I don't have any answer to this immediately. And I cannot tell you is it going to be -- is it going to be 7%, 7.5% or 8%, right, even, but it's going to go up. I can also be very clear, should we shift the portfolio to 60% financial solutions and then the whole in-force shifts to it. Of course, the amortization will become double digit. It's very clear. So it mainly depends on how much business we will be able to write in financial solutions. But you could see it's running off much faster. So yes, I can unfortunately not offer you a precise answer, but I don't think there is a limit or there's any target there for us. But again, I told you it's going to take years until the in-force moves there. The diversification. No, unfortunately, not going to help the diversification. So I mean, our internal model is very sophisticated. I'm sure somewhat, somewhere at the margin, it would show a bit of an improvement. But the bigger picture fact is Life and Health P&C complementary business models. That offers the biggest diversification. And whether I write a tick more of this, a tick more of that. It's not really moving the needle. My remark to diversification was more related to -- from a risk framework perspective. So what we like from a risk framing perspective is to pick up as many risks as we can, right, even if it's not fully reflected in the model. And that's what we like. And it's very clear that we had elements of risk that we otherwise don't have or still have a lot of appetite for it. That's the attractiveness with those.
Kamran Hossain
analystIt's Kamran. I've got a couple of questions just on Life & Health walk. I guess you've taken a lot of action in Life & Health this year. We've got the Milliman review out today a positive outcome there. When we look at that CSM walk, obviously, you've got amortization of the risk adjustment release. So at this point now, should we expect that experience should be more positive the negative. So if you can come up with kind of where that probably goes, do you think that should be more positive or more negative or just for now, just neutral. And the second question is just on the risk adjustment release. I guess, over the last few months, it's been my understanding that this has been an area that you've added prudence to -- does the EUR 100 million, EUR 100 million plus or a kind of EUR 100 million, that's a real number.
Thierry Leger
executiveOkay. Are you finding. You ask again the second question to Francois in the second half? Yes, okay. So we keep this for business questions. Even the Life & Health or the CSM Borg is a bit more in camp, but I'm happy to answer it already. And if you're not satisfied, you ask Francois again, and I'm sure you will get a satisfactory answer. I would say neutral. I mean we are best estimate now and minimum confirm that your best estimate with our reviews and assumptions. So what you should expect is over the longer term is a neutral outcome -- but we -- I think we were sufficiently clear to stage multiple times already in the speech that IFRS 17 is intrinsically more volatile, and particularly for Life & Health. And so accordingly, we expect and I, that is going to -- it would cost us too much, right, to reduce this volatility to the sheer minimum? So we think there will be quarterly ups and downs that over the longer term, it should be neutral.
William Hardcastle
analystWill Hardcastle, UBS. Thierry, I guess there's clearly a lot of changes gone on in Life & Health on both Protection and in-force. How much of this do you feel is catching up with competitors -- is there any area where you think you're getting ahead and therefore, in an even more competitive position. . And I guess just coming on to the Alternative Solutions, how much should I think about this? How sticky a business is this? Because is there a risk that as the hard market recedes and we don't want to wish it away. But some of that could switch back to traditional reinsurance of its solvency relief type. And I guess do you feel you'll have the capital to participate fully on that side of things if it does shift back to traditional.
Thierry Leger
executiveSo is the second 1 specific because you looked at Jean-Paul.
Jean-Paul Conoscente
executiveYes, I guess that was very much more on the P&C side, the second one. You can answer if you want.
Thierry Leger
executiveNo, I'm very happy to leave the second 1 to Jean-Paul, take the first ones. And the question was, if I understand it well, where do you feel with the changes we are catching up with competitors. So I think my view is a bit more differentiated for that. I do believe that today, you have very different participants in the Life & Health space. And it goes from almost all structured to very little structured contributions, right? And in the structured space, you have you have what we call full risk and remote risk, right? So it's much more differentiated for that. But I will still answer the questions because I don't think there is a scientific answer to it. The way I see it is ahead, no. I think where we move. Others are already, but not many. I think we -- I'm ultimately targeting an environment in which alternative solutions in Life & Health take, I'm not saying the next 2 years, but in the really longer term, it takes more space than just 20%, 30%. It could be half of the business or more. And I think in that there are only very few, very, very few. And if I look at the risk return profile of those companies, I find it very favorable. And if you then combine it with our balance sheet and the P&C, Life & Health diversification and our internal model, if you count the whole thing and then you are down to maybe 2 companies, us and somebody else, once we are there.
Jean-Paul Conoscente
executiveOn your question on AS. I think I would categorize it in 3 buckets. You have what I mentioned, the earnings protection covers. This is especially true on the cat where since clients can buy risk transfer solutions on the traditional market, they buy structured solutions to help them better manage the volatility I think that's the bucket that's the most at risk of shifting as the market changes. And we've already seen '24 some reinsurers that have decided to offer a second event, third event covers and clients are reducing their purchases on a structured basis and moving more towards a risk transfer basis. But as I said, for us, this is really not the area that we have developed in. Then in the capital relief part, you have clients that have been buying these structures for 10 years, just because for them, it's a more efficient way of buying capital. You also have, for example, mutuals that don't have the legal infrastructure to raise capital, but still want to grow. And so those companies buy AS solutions every year for the next as long as they want to grow. And so I think that's a large part of our client base today. And so we think that's very sustainable. And then the third bucket are clients that have capital strain because of the hardening market and need solutions for the immediate term. And if they're able to build back the capital position, we'll probably switch to other solutions. With those clients, what we do is we use alternative solutions as a solution to get a privileged position in the program, and then asked to participate on other programs that we find attractive. So I think being able to offer a solution to our clients puts us in a very good position when the market turns who are the clients who are the reinsurers they want to do business with will probably be in one of the first positions.
Thierry Leger
executiveAnd the need for this capital solutions will never go away because it's alternative capital. So it's part of the toolbox of any CFO, as you know, also of our CFO. We have just closed one of these alternative deals with the whole account to us far out of the money, right? That's the type of remote risk deal that can, in certain situations, if structured well, help your clients to produce the capital you want. And it does it without going to capital markets. It's a solution that stays for the duration you wish and goes away after that, again, it can be decided by the Head of Reinsurance together with the doesn't need any shareholder approval or anything. So it's extremely flexible. It's very targeted, and it can be very, very efficient for the client, too. So believe me, they are there forever. I mean I'm in this business since the '90s, they've always been there. And if at all, they have been growing because the sophistication of capital management becomes larger with all our clients. And as they grow that sophistication, of course, the demand for efficient capital relief solutions is going up -- so we don't expect that to dry up, not in Life & Health, not in P&C, which is why we want to play in that field, which is why we think we should have done it before, but let's not wait now and move into that space.
Thomas Fossard
executiveThank you, Thierry. Conscious of time, we're going to take the last question for this session, and then we'll have another 1 after Francois. So 1 last question for Thierry or at this stage. Vinit -- James, sorry.
James Shuck
analystJames Shuck from Citi. Just intrigued by the change in the mix of business on the life and health side and when we consider this the economic sensitivities because it's pivoting more towards the Financial Solutions business and the change in mortality and mobility, et cetera. Does that mean that the Life CSM becomes more sensitive or adversely affected by higher interest rates? And how do you incorporate that within the economic solvency because there's obviously going to be some sort of mismatch there and presumably you can be managing those in an integrated fashion? And then secondly, I was just interested about the volatility under IFRS 17. I presume that comes from the onerous contracts, principally Israel. I think you used to disclose what the onerous contract level was. If you're able to give an update on that at 9 months, that would be helpful, please.
Thierry Leger
executiveYes. So is it okay if we take the onerous with Francois later. If you please ask the question again?
James Shuck
analystAs long as that doesn't use one of my questions.
Thierry Leger
executiveHe won't -- he won't. But I think it's 1 that we can probably take there. On the mix and my expectation on the interest rate sensitivity, I would expect that the mix of business that we are looking to achieve will have a positive impact on interest rate sensitivity. Just generally, I'm not so saying all structured solutions, these are so, but just generally structured solutions fees have less interest rate sensitivity, just general. But it depends, right? In Life & Health, you can also do very large in-force type deals where you pick up a lot of duration, where you pick up all sorts of risks, including interest rate risk where ALM capabilities or as to balance this out. We'll also do try to do compete in that space at some point. But at this point in time, we are not fully equipped for that type of business. So right now, as we restart that business on the Life & Health side, it's really going to be diversifying from many different aspects. So it should, in the short term, rather reduce the sensitivity.
Thomas Fossard
executiveAnd Vinit, I think that you've been gifted 1 additional question. So use it. Actually, we are on the web, so you need a mic.
Vinit Malhotra
analystIs was really a last filler question, let's call it. The Slide 10 has a ALM comment, which is not -- which has a little bit extra phrases compared to the last year's CMD. And one of those phrases says that you're going to look at cash flows of liabilities with more granularity -- is that some kind of an orange light for us? So I mean because when a company wants to look at liability cash flows more carefully. Could that be a risk as well that you're trying to fly here? You didn't say that, but I'm just curious about because that phrase didn't exist before.
Thierry Leger
executiveI understand, right? It's not helpful for you. It's more concerning you. You should not be -- what we are saying is that it's like on both sides. So we are today better equipped to look more granularly, but it's also required to handle IFRS 17 really well plus Solvency II. So what we are saying is the Solvency II data IFRS 17. They are sometimes very different. And you need quite a sophisticated ALM to somewhat bring the different things together. So if as a target, you have to protect, for example, shareholder equity under IFRS 17, that's probably not going to -- that's probably going to create volatility for the solvency ratio, right? So this kind of thing. That's what you're saying. But we're also saying that we have today an opportunity to get much more granular data because we need it for IFRS 17. So that's all we say if we just said that is actually more available, and it will help us to refine and improve our ALM additionally. That's the 2 things. So we need more, but we also enable to do a better ALM. So nothing for you to worry about. This is pure upside. This is just upside.
François de Varenne
executiveAnd then we'll come back on the in my section.
Thomas Fossard
executiveAll right. So with that, we're going to break for 10 minutes. So please come back to the room at 3:35 and we'll have the finance sections. Thank you. [Break]
François de Varenne
executiveWelcome back from the break. Now let's move on to the finance section and more specifically, what has changed for '25 and '26. My messages today are very simple. One, we have addressed a number of challenges to strengthen our balance sheet. Two, we have made significant progress on enhancing the organization to shape the into optimal. Three, we are listening to market concerns, and I will provide a response to each of your top issues following our Q2 and Q3 publication in the next 30 minutes. And four, we'd like to demonstrate that we are committed to deliver our targets and to generate capital for Forward 2026. I have identified 6 topics from many interactions I've got with you over the last few months and quarters. Let's identify the first one. First, our reserving position and validation from external parties. We have carried out both internal and external review for Life & Health also for P&C with all results confirming that we are at best estimate today. Second topic, our earnings power in '25 and '26 following the Life & Health review and in a changing market context. Today, we confirm an unchanged EV growth target of 9% per annum and the return on equity assumption of above 12% per year for '25 and '26, and I will provide more details on each business activity in the next slide. Third, our net operating cash flow generation. We have updated compared to last year, our projection on net cash flow from operations for '26 and reduce it from EUR 1.5 billion to EUR 1 billion. Let me, however, walk you through this change in a few slides. Fourth topic, our financial leverage and refinancing strategy. As you may have seen this morning, we are going to issue a new AT1 debt, which is in line with our refinancing strategy that is in favor of larger tranches and this is expected to lead to a temporary increase in our financial leverage ratio in the short term. Fifth point, our dividend policy. Our capital management framework published last year remain unchanged. The dividend policy kicks in when the solvency ratio is at least or above 185%. And sixth topic, our 4 pillar to enhance the SCOR platform, you will see we are well on track. And today, I will provide an update on capital allocation ALM and risk partnerships. Let us start with the most awaited topic, our reserving position for P&C and for Life & Health as well as the external We mentioned it, Thierry mentioned it, we are very happy to announce that we have completed the 2024 annual reserve review for P&C, and we have asked to perform an independent external review for a second consecutive year. Both internal and external review outcomes show that our P&C reserves are at best estimate and compared to last year with an increased redundancy compared to the end of 2023. On the amount of buffer, we have the question during the first session on the amount of buffer that we have built in P&C, you would have understood from our body language and from our messages from our last quarter that given the strong performance on P&C, we have been able to accelerate the buffer building compared to the EUR 300 million objective initially set for the end of 2026. So I'm happy today to say that we are very close to the EUR 300 million objective. So it means what for the future, it means that we can from now on, maintain the buffer strategy, but at a slower pace, and no longer systematic, but opportunistically in accordance with group profitability. Following the same approach as for P&C, on the Life & Health side, we mandated Milliman as we indicated in Q3 to review the Life & Health assumption and reserve at an aggregate level. Milliman reviewed 100% of our growth and not only the deep dive we mentioned during the summer. So we reviewed 100% of our gross PVFTF, and they concluded that our gross PVC risk adjustment and CSM materially reliable. I think this is the first time in the industry, we have such an opinion under IFRS 17. With this review completed, we have drawn the line on the reserve for P&C and Life, and we can now move forward from a position of strength. Let us now talk about the updated financial outlook for the Forward 2026 strategic plan. Here is an overview of our updated target and assumptions for '25 and '26. So we confirm the 9% economic value growth target per year. Discussed it a little bit already, this comes from a return on equity of more than 12% and the growth in CSM of 1% to 3%. The growth in our shareholder equity is faster than the growth in the CSM. And it's coming from what? The equity will benefit from a fast translation of the CSM into profit, notably on the P&C side and the growth in CSM will mainly come from Life & Health, which I will detail in the next slide. Let's now describe in more detail our group earnings power, and I would like to discuss 5 points. Point number one, our Life & Health performance for '25 and '26. As presented earlier by Thierry, the Life & Health assumption and strategy reviews have an impact on the CSM amortization and new business CSM generation. The CSM amortization rate will decrease from 8 initial estimate to around 6.5% per year. We mentioned it, this is partially driven by a change in cash flow profile and CSM mix. This is because protection amortizes faster than longevity in our book and the weight of protection CSM has been reduced following the assumption review. This reduction in amortization, let's say it, is also driven by some adjustment of the amortization rates in some regions, which appeared to be too optimistic compared to the initial estimation during the first year of the transition to IFRS 17. The reduction in CSM amortization has a one-for-one impact on the insurance service results. As such, we are lowering the Life and Health insurance result from EUR 500 million to EUR 600 million per year to EUR 0.4 billion for 2025 and 2026. New business CSM is expected to reduce significantly in '25, following our strategic review. We expect, however, it to come back to the normalized 2023 level in 2026 with as discussed, a higher margin and a better mix. Overall, we are providing you an updated assumption of EUR 0.4 billion per year. As we are releasing less each year, the CSM stock will grow progressively because new business CSM will more than offset the amortization. We are also proactively managing the in-force book, including continued strong U.S. management action. Here, we look to protect and deliver the value from in-force. You would also notice that we have removed from our assumption the assumption of insurance revenue for Life & Health. We don't think it's a relevant metric. What matters in Life & Health is the value being generated. And this is reflected in the new business CSM, which capture both growth in volume and the improvement in profitability or margin. Maybe a last word before we move to P&C. During the road shows many of you have asked about the true-up of the arbitration position that we booked in Q3. I remind you the main message here. The message to take away is that the size of the true-up should be a good illustration that tail arbitration risk is expected to be contained. Since each individual case assessed is at best estimate at both under IFRS and Solvency II. So again, it's a good illustration of the size of the talk. Let's move to point #2, our P&C performance for '25 and '26. As you can see here, most of the profitability and growth assumptions remain unchanged. Jean-Paul walk you through our expected growth of insurance revenue in '25 and '26. We continue to expand in P&C in a hard market and continue to expect an insurance revenue growth of 5% to 6% over the plan. Combined ratio is unchanged, below 87% with the same cat budget as last year, 10 points. Keep in mind that this assumption below 87% is a 2-year target. The only assumption that we update for '25 and '26 is the discount effect, which is about 1 point lower compared to last year. The lower discount benefit will be compensated by reduced buffer building compared to 2024. As mentioned earlier, we are now very close to our EUR 300 million buffer target, and we are happy about this outcome. As a result, we will be buffered opportunistically going forward. This means that our P&C underlying earnings power is much stronger than 87%. Point three, to describe our earnings power. Let's move to our investment performance. Our strategy here does not change. Interest rates have come down a little bit compared to last year, but remain at a high level. We expect to see continued high investment rates and high regular investment income over the next 2 years. So the assumption of our regular investment -- regular income yield remains at 3.4%, 3.8% in 2026. Let's move to our management expenses, 0.4. Our management expenses and management occupancy, the group transformation simplification initiative, as mentioned by Thierry, are well advanced. This leads to an acceleration of our ambition of EUR 150 million savings by almost 1 year. The additional EUR 30 million savings in Life & Health mentioned by Thierry, beginning of this afternoon will partially contribute to higher savings of more than EUR 150 million and we will partially be reinvested for business growth and future operational excellence. Therefore, we maintain our assumption to maintain management expenses flat between '23 and '26 at EUR 1.2 billion. Moving to point #5, our strategy to repatriate profits in France. I may understand that in the context of the French environment today, many of you have inquired about the group tax assumption going forward. Please remember that following several years of nat cat and COVID losses, and you also to pass the internal retrocession structure that brought losses to the parent company. So SCOR in France, SCOR has accumulated a significant amount of tax losses carried forward in the French tax perimeter. So it means under statutory accounts. These losses in France are ever gain and can be recognized as deferred tax assets, if we can demonstrate that we are able to generate enough taxable income in the future, again, in France. As you see on the slide, we have a number of initiatives to buying profit back to Paris. The moment when the statutory result of Scores, so again, in France, become positive, the cash tax payment in France, would be reduced by around 50%, benefiting from the DTA absorption. The P&L benefit will depend on the activation of the tax losses carryforward and discussion, of course, with the auditors and tax authorities. It will happen, but it will take a longer time to realize. We consider this as beyond the Forward 2026 time horizon. And therefore, we keep the corporate income tax rate assumption at 30% until 2026, before probably in the next strategic plan, reducing this assumption. Let's move to cash flow generation. From the many investor meeting I have attended since almost 1.5 years, I understood that the cash flow generation continues to be one of your top concern, and I promised to provide you with an update. As mentioned at the start of my presentation, we have updated our projection on net cash flows from operations for 2026. And we reduced this projection from EUR 1.5 billion of -- from -- we reduced it from EUR 1.5 billion to EUR 1 billion, of which EUR 0.3 billion reduction come from Life & Health and EUR 0.2 billion from P&C. But let's take the time to look in details the impact within each business unit. On Life & Health, Thierry was clear. Last year, we indicated EUR 0.2 billion to EUR 0.4 billion for 2026. We are now updating our view to a breakeven level in 2026. There is 2 old causes. The first 1 is this is partially driven by the assumption review this year, of course. And the additional temporary tax that we have to pay in Canada for the transition to IFRS 17. There is an exit tax until 2026 in Canada on the tax side. And there is a second explanation, let's say it also. This is also partially explained by an improved view -- we did a lot of job internally on intra-group allocation, on nontechnical cash flows, so nontechnical cash flows that allocation of investment income, tax and expenses leading to higher allocation to live finals and less to P&C. But overall, it's neutral at the level of the group. If now we look at the situation of the P&C, the underlying cash flow generation continues to be very strong. Let's say it. You may recall that we had exceptionally strong cash flow of EUR 1.5 billion in '23 for P&C. And this is partially due to lag payments of large claims. We expect to pay these claims out by the end of 2026 and our cash flow to be impacted by EUR 300 million. So the reduction in our P&C cash flow assumptions for 2026 is, therefore, more of a timing matter than an operational issue. We are confident that P&C cash flow generation will return to a normal level of EUR 1.2 billion, at least in 2027 once those claims are payout. Moving on to our financial leverage and what we announced this morning. So we are proactively anticipating the refinancing of our corporate bond. So this morning, we announced the issuance of AT1 bond targeting roughly EUR 500 million tranche together with the tender offer on the grandfather Tier 1 bond issued in 2025 with a call date at the -- in 2014 and with a call date at the end of 2025. Listening to our fixed income investors, this is in line with our refinancing strategy to provide them larger and more liquid tranches. So as a result, we expect our financial leverage to increase by 2, 3 points over the next 4, 5 years and the financial expense to go up by around EUR 25 million to EUR 30 million. We remain opportunistic on our debt management, and we will continue to offer a AA level of security to our clients. The question on our dividend policy, let me remind you of our capital management framework and our dividend policy. Again, we introduced this in September last year. The capital management framework is unchanged compared to last year, which means our dividend policy kicks in when our solvency ratio is at 185%. There is really nothing new here. We just say we are committed to the Forward 2026 dividend policy. Let's now move on the Forward 2026 levers that will shape SCOR to be future ready. I would like to show you the progress we have made over the last 12 months. Let's look at 3 levers: capital allocation, ALM and risk partnerships. Capital allocation, Thierry, you mentioned it. The objective is to steer capital at a more granular level, optimize utilization and enhanced return. The enhanced capital allocation framework contains 3 pillars, 3 pillar. So we have one, which is growth with defined risk appetite. So that was done last summer. Capital performance and capital generation. So this year, we have developed an IFRS 17 capital performance framework that will monitor performance based on IFRS capital only at the business unit and portfolio level. This will give us a more complete view, taking into account the expected performance over the life of the contract. This methodology and this framework will be effective starting from 1st of January 2025, and it will be the main key performance KPI within SCOR combined with the Solvency II capital generation framework, which will be refined over the next few months, the 2 framework plus the addition of the growth dimension under constraint of risk appetite. So it will be used for capital allocation and portfolio steering by the end of 2025. Second lever, ALM. You know that last year, and we discussed it also earlier this afternoon, we announced that we wanted to move from a static ALM to a dynamic framework. The new framework aims at protecting shareholders' economic value against market variances and making decision dynamically via hedging strategies to meet score objectives. Those objectives can vary from solvency ratio, 2 funds or to IFRS economic value. Compared to last year, we have made significant progress, and we have seen the first impact in 2024. We have enhanced the ALM team. The team is in place. We have implemented hedging strategies on FX and interest rate risk in Q4. You saw it already in Q3 but we started to lengthen the asset duration almost 0.5 years over the first 9 months. That was in line with the move to this new ALM framework. We expect to see slightly reduced solvency sensitivities and a positive solvency ratio impact from a reduction in SCR in Q4 2024. Currently, the objective function of the ALM framework is to protect the solvency ratio from downside risk. Once our solvency ratio will be in the upper part of the optimal range. We will move our ALM target to protect shareholders' economic value dynamically. Let's move to the third lever to prepare SCOR to be the venture of tomorrow, a quick word on risk partnership where we are. So as mentioned by Thierry, the objective of this lever is to leverage on our Tier 1 franchise and expertise and bring Disa business opportunity or exposure to our partners. This year, we have moved the Life & Health and the P&C teams into a single team. We did this move earlier this year, and this team is reporting to me. We have also refined our definition of risk partners. They are traditional retro providers or capital market providers with proportional capacity on a multiyear basis with the potential to scale up the business These partners will support our underlying portfolio growth, help us manage risk exposure and expand our income sources, notably, of course, through the generation of fee income. The word account stop-loss we signed at Q3 is very solvency efficient, very solvency efficient and is a good testimony of the innovative solution we are developing in this partnership. We'll be looking at developing more of this type of solution in the future. So we confirm here on risk partnership, our ambition to increase the fee income by 60% during the time horizon of the plan and to increase our capacity, so outside our balance sheet by 50% by 2026. Now to conclude my presentation, 5 messages and not 4. I can the slide. First, our P&C and life reserves are 100% check, 100% check set at best estimate with some buffers. This is also supported by external parties, so with Second, we are determined to execute the strategy for Forward 2026 and confident to deliver the target, generating economic capital and enhancing returns on capital deployed. Third message, we have simplified processes. We have accelerated the group transformation and simplification, and we will continue to make progress and enhance SCOR platform to shape the reinsurer tomorrow. So here, we are really in the delivery mode. Fourth message, we are confident that our solvency ratio should be the upper part of the optimal range at the end and correlated to the fourth message and my last message of today, we are committed to offer our 2026 dividend policy. Thank you for your attention, and I will hand it back to Thierry for a few slides of conclusion before we move to the Q&A.
Thierry Leger
executiveThank you, Francois. So it's up to me to conclude over a conclusion, which is always a bit difficult. But I will try my best, and it will really just be a few minutes. So I think my conclusion of all the conclusions that you have heard already holds in 1 sentence. So SCOR will create significant value in a profitable and sustainable way in the years to come. I think this is really the mindset and what we would like you to retain. And the way we will do it, we said it, we repeated it that I would like to mention it the last time before we go into Q&A is to grow in this way. So that's the easiest way to present it. So there are the lines of business on the upper part that we grow above capital generation, capital generation as measured on the Solvency II, of course, that's our capital tool. So these lines, these 7 lines are the 1 we will particularly grow. And I hope you recognize everything that has been said today there. Things like financial solutions that have been talked about a lot longevity, marine engineering. You heard it from Jean-Paul. So those are the lines we grow above, then we have all the lines we grow in line in cat, we have not discussed yet much today. But in cat, we told you our risk in our risk profile overall cat is underweight and our risk manager we'll be happy to talk you through this again, we are underweight. And if we grow in line with capital generation more or less, we will remain underweight. You can look at this in 2 different ways. One is for example, to say, okay, underweight means a bit less exposed to cat risks. You can also look at it differently. We have a lot of powder dry. If at some point, we want to change this risk profile. And then we have all those lines that we want to grow below capital generation. So protection, you have heard about it and the U.S. Casualty are in this bucket. So that's how we intends to grow. And we see on the upper line in those 7 lines of business attractive opportunities in the years to come. And the value creation has been mentioned multiple times, and I just wanted to reemphasize the 9% value creation target that we have set ourselves, and we will do it in a profitable way. So at an ROE of at least 12% over the planning period. And you can also see that the value generation is on the equity side, so on the what we call hard capital side and not so much on the soft capital side. And is, you can look at this in different ways. I think it does actually, in our case, help us to create a stronger profile in terms of balance sheet to have this growth more on the capital side. And I also mentioned sustainable because I meant sustainable. I think that probably right now, the E&S is not so much on work anymore and people are shying away from it. But you should know at SCOR, we have sustainability really at the heart of our purpose. So says that we use the art and science of risk to help the resilience of societies. And this is driving a lot of our people. So we have thousands of employees, and that purpose means something to them. And I know there are times where people talk more about ESG and times they talk less about it, but that's not how we can run a business. We cannot say, okay, now it's in fashion, now it's out of fashion. For us, it's a purpose. And when we talk about environmental targets, we mean it. So every year, we adjust our targets to the 1.5-degree path defined by science. We have put new exclusions in place earlier this year, and we will continue to do that. We take this very, very serious. The social 1 is important to us, and this is mainly around equal chances for everyone. And as much as I don't like targets in the women men relationship on top level meetings. It is fair to say that whilst we are 50-50 overall at SCOR in terms of women and men, when you go up, the banks actually the part of women diminishes. And so we have set ourselves the target of at least 30% women in senior positions at the end of '25. And you're on a good path. And for me, it's important, as much as we have today talked about numbers, growth and economics and all of that thing, which is really at the core of what we want to deliver. I also wanted to leave this with you that these elements remain there and unchanged, and all these ambitions remain unchanged. So that's what I wanted to leave with you. And now Thomas will go to Q&A.
Thomas Fossard
executivePerfect. So thanks, Francois. Thanks, Thierry. We're going to follow the same rule than the previous Q&A session. So we're going to take the question first in the room and your the third one.
François de Varenne
executiveShould we take the question that we postponed?
Thomas Fossard
executiveYes. So do you want to go first with these ones?
François de Varenne
executiveNo, but maybe we could repeat the question.
Thomas Fossard
executiveSo James, can you repeat your...
James Shuck
analystI had 12 questions, please. So the first 1 is just on the onerous contracts. I was just keen to understand where those are could you stop disclosing what those were? And I imagine that's the source of the IFRS 17 volatility, and I think it comes from Israel. And if you are trying to focus on reducing volatility then shouldn't you look to offload that contract?
François de Varenne
executiveSo on aeros contract, maybe just a word. So of course, it's a source of volatility. Since every -- any movement on onerous contracts flow into the P&L and not rely on the balance sheet. You know that transition, we have roughly EUR 0.2 billion of non contract. You saw that in Q2 and Q3, we added EUR 0.4 billion on Israel. So it's a good indication of the amount of onerous contract today at SCOR. And of course, any change on any assumption on those contracts will flow into the P&L. On your question on the source of volatility, I would say, of course, this block of business, which is classified under nose contracts will bring potential volatility. Again, you see it over the last few quarters, volatility could be in both directions. It could be positive or negative. I would say where we could have still volatility. Thierry mentioned that IFRS 17 is a standard that is more volatile than IFRS 4. I think we start to all understand it. So it comes from onerous contract, of course. There is the second source of volatility, let's say, what we call BAU, the experience variance on a quarterly basis. We could have some noise here on volatility, and this 1 is expected. And we mentioned it during the in-force presentation, we could have volatility linked to management action, depending on the decision, the ultimate decision of the client. Let's say, we proposed a rate increase, except yes, no or recapture, yes, no. Ultimately, come is always positive for SCOR, but it could have some volatility, of course, in our KPIs. But that -- for me, that would be the 3 main sources of the right business under IFRS 17 through the P&L.
Thierry Leger
executiveCan I go with the first question then?
James Shuck
analystCan you just help me on the debt issuance? I didn't entirely hear what you said, but I think -- and I haven't seen any press release, but I think you mentioned this EUR 500 million issuance today. When I look at the slide that it shows a sort of squiggle, which kind of suggests that the stock of debt is going to remain stable. That's the one. But obviously, the economic value is kind of growing quite a lot. So I don't quite see how you increase 2 to 3 points by 2026, whilst keeping that sub debt level -- I mean, even if you include the EUR 500 million today, it seems like that number is going to go up if I'm going to be 2 to 3 points higher than 22.7% today. It looks like you issuing net debt of about EUR 1 billion. And kind of what's the impact of that on solvency because to the uninitiated like myself, it just seems like you're issuing debt to help with central liquidity and help with solvency and therefore pay your dividend, but that's a skeptical view. I had a second question as well, but perhaps I'll come back to that.
François de Varenne
executiveSo maybe a few questions on this issuance of that. So we have a call debt on the RT1 end of 2025. The size is EUR 250 million. we lose the Solvency II treatment the first of January 2026. So with the probability of one, we are going to call this debt. So that's for sure. we think today, there is a window of opportunity to refinance. The next window, let's say, in the next few days -- middle of next week, the markets are closed for the year. And then in January, we will enter a restricted period on our side because I will start to have information on the lending of Q4. We will be in the closing process, discussion with our auditors we'll have the renewal information, so we'll be in the blackout period. So which means the next window of opportunity for us is early March after the disclosure of the annual account. To assess if this is less risky today or more risky or less risky in March, I would not bet anything, especially seen from a French CFO. So we use the slot. So I don't see anything else. Now the size, EUR 500 million, we know -- I mean, we are speaking with fixed income investors. It's a comeback for SCOR in the debt market. The last time it was what, 4, 5 years ago. So it's a big comeback of SCOR. The minimal size of an issuance today is EUR 500 million. So EUR 250 million was too small. So I need to think to fixed income investors and wide the liquidity. So we issued EUR 500 million you maybe saw it in the press release, we are going to do some debt management. So we are going probably to buy back, I don't know, but let's imagine EUR 100 million in the next few days. So we -- the net proceeds at the end of the year should be close to EUR 400 million. So with those EUR 400 million, we will redeem our call what will remain at the end of 2025, but look at the debt pattern we've got, there is then a call in 2026, and we'll come back probably in '26 or '27 to refinance. Again, to maintain with a change, it will take a few years to refinance with ounces with a minimal size of EUR 500 million. I know your last question on solvency, of course, there will be an impact in Q4. That was not the objective because if we have each in NASH, we will have also in Q1 or Q2, the same impact. If you say that we issued EUR 500 million, net of, let's say, I don't know, but we will see. But I think it should be close to EUR 100 million, and the number of people that are going to answer positively to the debt management proposal we are making to their own on impact on the solvency ratio should be 8 points at Q4 midpoint.
James Shuck
analystOkay. That's very helpful. My second question was on the solvency roll forward itself. So there's been a number of things have changed. And I'm trying to think about how the operating capital generation from -- if I think about the own funds generation an increase in SCR from the growth that you've got out to 2026. Can you just help me understand what is a normalized level of capital generation broken down into those 2 parts? I understand that you're really diversifying a way that capital strain. But I'm keen to get a feel for how that ratio will evolve over the planned period.
François de Varenne
executiveI will give maybe the mic to answer the question?
Fabian Uffer
executiveYes. Thanks a lot for the question. I -- on a normalized basis, we expect to grow the solvency ratio maybe between 2% and 4% net of dividend over the planned period in the next 2 years. But our goal is, as Francois said and Thierry to be really in the other part of the optimal range. So don't expect too much growth above what we dividend out and what we need for obviously the growth of the business.
James Shuck
analystWas that an annual number or a total number of the plan period, 2 to 4 points?
Fabian Uffer
executiveThat's a total number.
Thomas Fossard
executiveYes, Derald, you've been waiting for.
Teik Goh
analystDerald Goh from RBC. So the first question is just on the reserve buffers for both segments. Could you remind us -- why is EUR 300 million the limit for P&C and if there's an opportunity for you to build beyond EUR 200 million? And then on the Life side, so it sounds as though you spoke about installing this temporary buffer right as you completed the review of just over EUR 300 million as well. So it sounds like you've retained that. Is that going to be held on until a certain amount of a certain amount of time? And when would you release it and what you might use it for -- the second 1 is just on capital returns. So your point about, yes, the cash flow as being a bit lower. Can you confirm that it doesn't impact your capital return plans, what you had -- maybe also within that, can you confirm that the capital return plans because you spoke about excess returns through 2026, that hasn't changed as well.
François de Varenne
executiveSo on your first question on the buffer. So you know that this year, we moved the buffer both for P&C and Life. It's booked through an add-on of the risk adjustment. So that's an agreement we've got with our shareholders. The objective of the buffer on the P&C and life on the P&C side, on the Life side are a little bit different. So in P&C, we have indicated last year that our intention was to build at least EUR 200 million of buffer by the end of 2026. It's achieved after 18 months because we started in Q2 in July 2023. So I think it's a significant testimony of the performance of the P&C business. Do we have a target, a new target in mind? I would say no, not particularly. It will depend a little bit now on the length of the hard market cycle on the P&C side. And what we said is that it's no longer a systematic strategy, it becomes opportunistic. Let's say, if we still have excellent quarter, strong quarter, we will put aside, keep in mind that those buffer, the intention is that we should use them when we will be in the soft cycle -- during the short cycle. So it's not for tomorrow, but for the next few years. So the key message and if you have to quantify, let's say, the EUR 300 million -- sorry, where you expect EUR 100 million each year, EUR 100 million of buffer a year, that's 2 points of combined ratio. If we do less, you can understand how we finance 1 point of discount. And why Jean-Paul and I will say that we are confident of the fact that we'll deliver the 87% target. On the Life & Health side, it's different. It's different. So we booked add-on in Q2. I mentioned also during the call in Q3 that we added steel prudence also in on the life side. to manage the final uncertainty due to the usual closing process at and especially the final one of the internal model. Here, what we expect is that after the Life & Health review of 2024 and that's supported by the review, we expect a lower expense variance, volatility again. That will be a We have in mind with CRE, what -- an acceptable level of volatility, we don't know. It will depend on the effect of loss component on contract the BAU expands variance and potentially the management action impact. So here, the add-on now, they are in place. They are not used to manage on a quarterly basis this volatility. They are here, if needed, to strengthen any underlying assumption or maybe a source of volatility that was not detected before. They are here just to manage over the medium term, the volatility cycle on the Life side, which is a little bit different from the objective on the P&C side.
Thierry Leger
executiveIn the meet the P&C buffer with regard to the 300, you remember at the beginning, we were a bit shy. We didn't really want to tell anyone because we didn't want you to put kind of EUR 300 million into your numbers, right? And think that we will just move there in like on a quarterly basis. And you can see we didn't we moved actually much faster. And so we were there. So your question was, okay, how far beyond. And yes, it's going to be opportunistic. It's going to be less than what we have done in the last 18 months. But I think it's desirable for us to go higher. I think there will be a natural limit at some point. And it's probably -- you can look at what is our yearly net income and -- how much of that do we actually want to have in the buffer, right? How much can you even have, right? At some point, it's going to be limited the upside. But I think right now, from where we are, let's assume you are around the EUR 300 million I still see a bit more as desirable, but it's not a must. So we would add if we can, opportunistically, but we don't have to do anymore. So anything more would make it, of course, more comfortable, but is only if the opportunity is there.
François de Varenne
executiveAnd on your second question on capital management framework, I guess, dividend policy is the update on the net operating cash flow as an impact on the dividend policy. The answer is no. The answer is -- I come back on the message. On the P&C side, it's just a lag effect. It's just a lag effect. It's nothing else. So again, keep in mind that 2027, we should come back to a normal situation where we generate EUR 1.2 million, EUR 1.3 billion of net operating cash flow. Again, net operating cash flow. So that's after allocation of investment revenues less taxes and expenses. So on the P&C, it's just a lag effect, and there is nothing else. On the Life side, you said it, it will be among the top priorities of the next to the next CEO of the business unit, it's a challenge. We target to be at breakeven in 2026, but that's not enough. That's not enough and we want to work and we want more. So we are going to work on this. Now to your question, generating -- in a group we generate EUR 1.2 billion, at least of net operating cash flow per year. I remind you, you can pay a dividend of EUR 300 million or EUR 320 million or EUR 250 million. So it's not an issue. It's not an issue in liquidity. I remind you that in a reinsurance company access to access to the liquidity at the mother company. It's not the same challenge as the primary insurer. It's easy. We repatriate through dividend of our subsidiaries, the cash. We have internal retrocessions. So we have many tools that the primary insurers don't have accessing to the cash that we got in the group at the level of the motor company is really not an issue. So there is no impact and no fear at all on this side.
Teik Goh
analystI think you alluded to the potential for special [indiscernible].
Thomas Fossard
executiveSorry, Wait for the mic, please.
Teik Goh
analystI think when you first presented the plan, you spoke about the potential for excess returns for beyond the ordinary dividend. So my question was more related to the potential it those accesses within this updated plan.
François de Varenne
executiveI understand your question. First, let's demonstrate that we can grow the dividend, the regular dividend each year. And then we will demonstrate as well that if we have an exceptional re, that was the message of last year, if we have an exceptional year. We will share the good fortune of SCOR with our shareholders through special dividend or share buyback. But again, it's not linked here to liquidity. Keep in mind that it's coming from the 2 drivers of the dividend and the capital management framework first. First, the solvency ratio above 185% and then we see where it is within the range of And then we look at the growth of the economic value and the underlying drivers of the growth of the economy.
Faizan Lakhani
analystFaizan from HSBC again. I just want to fully understand the messaging around the buffer build and the combined ratio -- so you mentioned it's not structural. It's opportunistic and the fact that you could still see the buffers go up further. Does that mean that if you are below 87% on an underlying basis in any year that you would rather show 87% or anything better than that? Just to kind of understand what does that really mean in terms of earnings Second question, on the debt leverage side, medium term, where do you want to be on that front? And can we say that the debt-related buildup and capital is an artificial level and that will come down over time rather than be distributable.
François de Varenne
executiveSo on your first question, on the buffer strategy on the P&C side, we are consistent with Thierry in July last year. So we don't change. So it's not -- it's linked, of course, to the profitability of P&C, but that's also to the overall profitability of the world. The only message that is different is that it was systematic each quarter. You saw our body language at each call when we accelerated, you understood that we put more than 1/4 per year. So the changes will become more opportunistic and we will decide on a quarterly basis, subject to the P&C performance and the group performance. So you understood that we still want a little bit more. But if we can and if we have the performance that can finance this. So it's no longer an obligation.
Thierry Leger
executiveSo we are not slavishly delivering on 86.9%.
Faizan Lakhani
analystOkay. I guess in some ways, will we be able to see the underlying profitability quarter-to-quarter, given the fact that you're solving for a much bigger equation, I guess.
Thierry Leger
executiveYou should see more of that going forward. But we told you we would still opportunistically build some buffers, but you should see more going forward.
François de Varenne
executiveOn your question on debt leverage, maybe I don't know if you can project the Slide 63 on the screen, but you have the pattern of the call date of our current stock of bonds at SCOR. So you see here we are pre-refinancing the '25 call date. But you see after the pattern, let's say it's a little bit strange to have such difference between the size of those various tranches, so again, the ambition is to start to please as well our fixed income investors, minimal size of any tranche today is EUR 500 million. I don't know what it will be in 2, 3 years from now. But you see we are going to use 2, 3 years before we deliver to fixed income investors what they like. And again, I'm fully in favor of this. So expect that the financial leverage will be above the target we've got until today during 2, 3 years because I need 2, 3 years to stabilize this, I would say, strange pattern of size of issuance.
Thierry Leger
executiveOtherwise, you would like it to move below 20% as we have been clear on that target. But we stay above that.
François de Varenne
executiveBut the message is clear, it's not just for 1 year. You see -- I mean, I've got especially the '27 line to refinance, which has a strange size.
Thomas Fossard
executiveAnyone else? Yes, Vinit.
Vinit Malhotra
analystSorry, just back on the -- So I have only 1 question, sorry. Just back on the solvency. So Slide 48, I think you have in the hedging strategy also impacting solvency positively. You have the bonds you talked about and the reposition 2 points. So it's getting quite nice and high, so what should -- I mean, can we interpret just to be keeping it simple, that if it's somewhere in the middle, we look for a flat divi, somewhere in the high, we look for a growing divi and that will be something -- I mean, I'm hesitating to even ask this because of where we were a few months ago. But I'm just curious to hear what you could say on that?
François de Varenne
executiveVinit, I like your question, as a CFO, end of July, the fear of the market and most of the questions were you fear, it was well flagged that we finished the year below 185%, so with no dividend. And I'd like to have the question today, are we going to do a share buyback or special dividend. Let's see it. That's your question. Let's look at the impact of what we expect in Q4. So you have 2 points that are coming from the full year effect of the world account stop-loss we put in place in Q3. So since it's a 10 points full year effect. So 2 points here. Hybrid debt, 8 points. ALM, you see on the slide, it's a few points. Why it's a few points on ALM, it's a good guy of the entry, the new methodology since what we did this year on ALM, we are what, 40% of what we would like to do on ALM. You said we progressed since last week. What we did this year is reverse reengineering. So we took the run of the internal model. We look at the SCR and we protected the interest rate sensitivity of the solvency ratio and the own funds through those simulations. So there is, when we put in place the strategy and that's done, there is a good guy coming from the fact that we hedge tail-risk into the SCR. So there is this impact, what remains to do next year on the ALM side is now to better understand the sensitivity of the solvency ratio or the own funds or the shareholder value under IFRS 17, per liquidity bucket and while working with the CRO team, and that should be done. So that's the next level we want to reach on ALM. So ALM say a few points, a few, it's below 5, but let's say, 2, 3 points. You have what -- you have the capital generation mentioned by the net capital generation. Usually, in Q4, it's not big. It's not the renewal season and we may have the impact of some retrocession contract signed in Q4. So the seasonality here is more in Q1 and Q2. We have the accretion of the dividend, which is negative. And I invite you to look at the evolution of interest rates since the end of Q3, which, as of today, is going in a good direction. So that's why are confident on the fact that we should be in the upper part of the range at the end of Q4. So between what, we demonstrated the resilience of the balance sheet and the fact that we manage actively the solvency ratio, we absorbed 20 points of life finance impact this year.
Thomas Fossard
executiveJames?
James Shuck
analystJames, from Citi again. Just on the cash flow point. So I mean it doesn't seem like your cash constrained, you got EUR 1.8 billion, EUR 1.9 billion of central liquidity, and that will be boosted by the debt issuance obviously. I'm just wondering, as my first question, kind of what are the practical implications of that kind of cash flow being pushed out, does it actually impede you, in any way, clearly, the solvency is becoming at least your own measure, solvency is becoming less of an issue when it comes to capital management decisions. But is central liquidity a constraining factor and it's very difficult to know where you're trying to manage that number 2 and various arbitration cases and things like that, whether you need to keep money aside for that sort of thing. So that's one question, sort of associated question really is, are you still trying to get back to a AA level of credit rating and if so, what impact does that have on the business? Because obviously, the argument when you get downgraded, it doesn't have any impact. So assuming it doesn't have any impact on the way up either.
François de Varenne
executiveThe big message here has to be compared to what we said 1 year ago. Let's say it SCOR was not super strong on assessment of cash flow, cash flow culture, et cetera. What you see here is the progress we made since last year. So of course, you see the fact that we reduced the projection, but look at also what we did, we have now in place a team. It's a centralized team that is reporting to me, which monitor liquidity, cash flow, internal retrocession, capital management internally for all the subsidiaries, of course, everywhere and them all. So we start to put this cash flow culture everywhere and within any group of people or it's a new culture, it's a new culture. What I said also during the speech, my speech, is that we progress a lot on maybe things that peers are doing for years, but which are new for SCOR. We have progressed a lot on allocation of what we call nontechnical cash flow. So investment revenues, taxes, expenses, so it's done. So now I can guarantee you that you know that we provided on a quarterly basis, 4 years liquidity, I mean, the cash flow statement. It was quite difficult to have reconciliation between what we published last year and this quarterly cash flow statement. I can guarantee you today that between this projection and what we provide on a quarterly basis, you can monitor, it's fully aligned with the definition are the same. So we progress a lot. We are not yet where we want to be but we progress a lot. And that's also the -- I mean, the message I would like to send today on this slide. Again, on P&C, for me, it's not an issue. It just we moved by 1 year and we have an arbitration with a client, we cannot say it. So there will be -- we don't know when it's going to pay. So it's just a lag effect. On the life side, we have to work on it, and that's part of the message of today. We changed progressively the culture, the fact that it should be embedded everywhere that we see cash flow and not only through capital generation, we have to see cash flow everywhere. So just -- and you will see each year, I will make a point on where we are, of course, on the assumption because that's key for you to understand that the life business unit when it will produce positive cash flow for the group, but it's also a message each year of where we are in this culture change on this, for me, very important topic.
Thierry Leger
executiveOn your question regarding the AA, I mean, first of all, it's not a target. And it's not a target because we do not need it to write more business. I told you Tier 1 franchise here, our market share here, believe me, we can double the market share and we could still go further without the AA. It's not needed. So that's the first point, and that's really important. So nobody has a target in the group. I don't have one. Nobody has a target that we need to reach AA. I think it will be stupid to set a AA target because you would suddenly start to direct certain decisions and actions to that effect. And I think it would be wrong to drive SCOR on the basis of S&P. So we are today very, very comfortable with regard to our AA level of capital that we have and that we offer to our clients even without the AA, let's say, label from the rating agencies. However, personally, and I'm not the one taking the decision on this AA thing. Personally, I think by just doing what we do by just executing on what you have heard in the last 2 hours, I'm personally convinced that we will gain back the AA but again, it will be an add-on. It will just be like the result of what -- of doing the right thing and not be driven by it. I hope you would appreciate that. I think the right thing to do for us is to create value for our shareholders and not to optimize everything on the solvency, IFRS and S&P. But I can already tell you, we are monitoring our AA capital, and we have a lot of excess capital with regards to the AA level. So there's no issue there. So what we need to demonstrate is consistency also there, show that we can keep our Tier 1 franchise that or expected versus actuals or actual versus expected are good in order of that thing. These are all the right things anyway. Again, my conviction, we'll probably gain it back anyway, whether I want it or not.
Thomas Fossard
executiveNick, on the left.
Nicholas Johnson
analystIt's Nick Johnson from Deutsche Bank. A couple of questions, please. I seem to remember you mentioning in previous quarters, do you do a deep dive on Life & Health reserves, 1/3 of the book every year. Has the Milliman review so preempted the next deep dive work. And secondly, on the hedging interest rates and FX. So it's a good guide for SCR and Solvency II. Just wondering if I understood it correctly, is it a bad guide for IFRS numbers? If so, what's the quantum? Just check I've understood that.
François de Varenne
executiveSo on your first question on the deep dive, so the deep dive we mentioned them in Q2. That was the focus of the acceleration of the review. We always said that each year, we review 100% of the portfolio. What is new compared to the summer is the fact that we ask to Milliman to review 100% of the growth PVFCF. It's good. So for them, there is no deep dive or they reviewed everything. Of course, we continue to monitor a certain number of markets line of business or assumption, we have now the add-on in place, and I explained the mechanism to use those add-ons in the future. So which means today we are at best estimate, not only on the deep-dive we mentioned during the summer, but again, on 100% of the growth PVFCF and the Milliman opinion is on PVFCF, risk adjustment and CSM, don't forget that that's on the 3. On your second question on the SCR, maybe correct me if I did not understood well your question. So there is a good guy and explain the reason why coming from the impact on the SCR on the solvency ratio. So the levers to now dynamically put in -- manage this ALM strategy, of course, we first address the positioning of the investment portfolio to better match the cash flow profile. Then it's true, I would say, plain vanilla FX derivatives of interest rate swaps. So it's almost done for Q4. They are all under hedge accounting. So there should be no P&L impact.
Thomas Fossard
executiveWilliam?
William Hardcastle
analystWill Hardcastle, UBS.
François de Varenne
executiveThere will be a OCI impact, but no P&L impact.
William Hardcastle
analystWill Hardcastle, UBS. On the debt leverage, just coming back to an earlier question, just trying to think about where you'd ideally like to be long term. So beyond that, any ranges, any sort of thinking about tiering and whether you're worried about any sort of capital flexibility restrictions in that context? And then can we confirm that 2 to 4 percentage point solvency cap gen, please? What's the -- that's in aggregate for the 2 years? And does that include anything like economic variance assumptions as well, capital market assumptions? Or is that purely, essentially own funds generation and dividend?
François de Varenne
executiveSo maybe the first question on debt leverage. Again, what we said last year is that we are expecting our financial leverage ratio to be below 20% at the end of the plan. So we increase -- again, it's not just for 1 year. It's for 2, 3 years, the leverage ratio due to the fact that we start to put in place a new refinancing strategy. And you show that on the slide, I need a few years to deliver to fixed income investors this strategy. To commit on the financial leverage after '27, which will be the main line. I think it's too early. I prefer to say it today. It's too early. It will be the next strategic plan. We will see in '26 or '27, where the market is. Keep in mind that for us, for me and the way I see it, hybrid debt is part of the toolbox to optimize the regulatory or the economic capital under Solvency II. We added 1 tool in Q3 with the old account stop loss. And then I think our role is to find the optimal allocation of various sources of Solvency II capital. So that's what we did in Q3. Let's see in the next strategic plan. I think it's too early to commit after 2026, especially given the fact that you saw it, I've got this strange line to refinance, small line of '27 to refinance. And maybe on capital generation, Fabian?
Fabian Uffer
executiveCapital generation, that's the 2% to 4% contains the capital generation in own funds, as you have said, contains the capital deployment, so the increased SCR from the bus growth and the dividend payout. But it doesn't contain any economic movements. I mean what Francois and Thierry have said that with the new ALM framework, we think we reduced the sensitivity to our market movements. Already that you're going to see in Q4. But then when we refine, we will have probably more positive effects on that and we should be below our risk budget that we have set for market movements on the solvency ratio.
Thomas Fossard
executiveIvan?
Ivan Bokhmat
analystIvan Bokhmat from Barclays. I have 2 questions on the reserve buffer. One on the P&C side. I mean it's very hard to compare among peers, of course, but maybe you could try to quantify it in terms of the percentile of where you are right now? And what exactly should we be looking at? Is it risk adjustment? Is it overall reserves? And secondly, perhaps a question that's quite similar in nature. But you've alluded to the Milliman's review of the life reserves as being the first of a kind in an industry. I just wonder how you benchmark yourself against peers. How does Milliman feel your benchmark against peers? And what are the criterias really?
François de Varenne
executiveSo on your first question, so the way we approach the positioning of our P&C reserves is through the communication on the size of the excess reserve. So we are close -- I still need to know which amount of buffer we are going to put in Q4. So let's say, we're close to EUR 300 million. So just below or just above but we are close to EUR 300 million. I guess you make a reference to one large Swiss player in the reinsurance industry, which publishes an interesting approach. We did the same exercise. So I know if we use the same methodology you have pros and cons on this methodology, it's distribution of the best estimate range. Let's see if it becomes a standard in the industry, and we will do the same thing. I think it's a little bit early for us to disclose it. So at this stage, I prefer just to maintain our strategy and to communicate on the fact that we are close to EUR 300 million excess reserve on the P&C side. Let's see if we move to the Swiss Re approach when it will be fully audited on their side and the methodology will be same. On your second...
Thierry Leger
executiveBut we are pretty sure we would compare very favorably.
François de Varenne
executiveYes, yes. No, see, we did the same exercise, of course. We'll always look at peers, especially when they are bigger, I mean what they do. It's a smart way to communicate the positioning of the reserve, and we look pretty well if we do the same thing. On the Milliman review, that's true that we ask them, of course, to do some peers benchmarking methodology, that's more for them and not for us. I don't know, Fabian, if -- I mean, it's -- so they don't share exactly the positioning of peers since it's confidential. It's more for them to be sure that we are in line with what peers are doing. So that part of their job. So they know where we are compared to peers. And they can say you are aligned, but we don't know exactly where our peers are. It's, of course, a confidential information that they don't share with us.
Thierry Leger
executiveMaybe 1 thing that you might have forgotten, but you will remember, at Q3, we said that when we reviewed our internal review, we used external support for all 3 regions. So for each region, a different one. depending on the strengths that we saw, right? So we always use those that, in our view, have the best view. And what we got from those is very clearly benchmarks with the industry, with our peers. So those benchmarks already flew into the first round of internal reviews. But we, of course, you cannot -- we don't know what they mean even by benchmark, right, but it's industry peers benchmarking. So we get very clear views on where they think we should go a bit further, where others do it differently. And I think it's very helpful exercise.
Thomas Fossard
executiveAny additional questions? Yes, Derald?
Teik Goh
analystJust 1 last one. You spoke about -- so I'm looking at Slide 47, you spoke about combining your capital allocation framework on both IFRS and Solvency II. What are the gaps today between those 2 frameworks. And is it impeding you from making any business decisions? And then also, could you speak about the gap between your solvency capital model and the rating agency model, is that gap being closed now with all these actions that you're taking?
François de Varenne
executiveI think I mean what you should read in this slide is also the footnote, there's always a message in the footnote. So up to now that the SCOR approach was on steering capital allocation, steering, pricing was mostly based on economic value-added framework. In the sense of EV framework before IFRS 17, it's not the EV of the new standard IFRS 17. What we said today here is that we made a clear choice that as of January 1, next year, performance of the capital allocated on [indiscernible] basis and exposed basis. So when we compare actuals versus expected, it will be measured only under IFRS. I think there is also one another big player that made the same choice recently. What we need still to enhance is -- so which means that the pricing and the steering is still based today on the economic value-added framework, we're still not to define more precisely the capital generation framework. So that's here. So to assess the capital generation and business unit and portfolio level under Solvency II. So which means that what we said today is that we will only, in the future, we have 2 standard, IFRS and Solvency II, and we are going to measure everything only on those 2 frameworks. And that's a strong message. We still need 1 year to deliver fully the framework. So correlated to your question, today, I mean, I don't see any decision taken at SCOR today where we look and we check the S&P model. So this S&P capital model is not a binding constraint on any of our decision at SCOR today. Why? The good news was that you know that S&P, they were among the first rating agency to recognize the CSM in their capital model. There is just one which is not recognizing yet the CSM that's AM-based and you know that there is a lobby at the level of the CFO forum to convince CSM, which is more U.S.-based to recognize the IFRS key features. And there was something also I mentioned it, I think during previous call, but it was a big success for SCOR. S&P to assess SCOR financial strength was using the AAA anchor in their model. So for SCOR to be AA rated. We have to disclose an amount of capital above the AAA level in their model. Since the transition to IFRS 17, they accepted to benchmark us at the AA anchor level, like all the peers in the industry. So it was a big success. So if you add this plus the recognition of the CSM we are well above. I mean the message of Thierry, I'm more -- I mean much stronger, we are well above the AA level of S&P today. So it's not a constraint. So we just need time for them to recognize that we are AA and you lose a notch in one night, and you need 3 years before you upgrade it, just in this journey. But I don't see any decision today where we discuss the impact on the S&P model. It's no longer the case. And especially after those 2 and plus the fact we generate each quarter a significant amount of capital under IFRS and Solvency II and of course, under S&P.
Thierry Leger
executiveAnd I didn't want to dismiss the value of AA. I think it's a nice recognition for SCOR if you get it, right? I didn't want to say I'm not interested at all I'm just say I'm not driven by it. But of course, it will be a nice recognition. Just 1 thing because you had another question, which is Solvency II, S&P, and I would go even further, IFRS 17. So all these frameworks have moved to a more economic basis. all the accounting standard, the solvency standards and the rating agency standard, all of them did the same thing. So from this variance of views, we have clearly today close -- not close the gap, but we have moved closer on all things. But there are still significant differences between industry. Even if all 3 are economic, I mean, even IFRS 17 and Solvency II act sometimes in still quite different ways. And same with S&P. But S&P is a lot more aligned now than in the past with our accounting standard, for example, then that's very positive. But we cannot say they are now aligned, that would be misleading.
Thomas Fossard
executiveOkay. With this, okay, that will be the last one because you've got a busy day -- another busy day tomorrow. So it will be the last one. If you want to -- so Vinit, you're the last one.
Vinit Malhotra
analystSo yes, Vinit from Mediobanca. So I've understood the math on the amortization rate and financial solutions and fully sympathized the logic of waiting to see that happen. Just if I can pick on it again from a slightly easier to understand angle, the 9 months life ISR was EUR 334 million stated by you as the underlying rate in the quarterly results, annualized is EUR 445 million, roughly, let's say. And after all the effort that is being put in which is visible and which is making a huge difference. It suggests that we are not moving much away from that number, much above that number. because that's where the ISR is centering to, that's where things are coming to. So of course, the math is understandable because CSM is different. But just from a very top-down view, it looks like -- is there some conservatism, should we have expected more euro millions of profit from all the measures taken? Because it looks like we are standing still from where we are, but it obviously is not the case. So I'm just curious to hear that.
François de Varenne
executiveI think on the guidance or the assumption on the Life & Health insurance service results, we prefer to be conservative after what happened in 2024. So let's see it. And you see when we communicate in 0 point-something billion, don't forget that you can -- we could have figures after the comma, so it could be a little bit above EUR 400 million. So there is this nice trick in financial communication of funding numbers. It is true that we added a little bit of prudence in this assumption for a small amount of volatility on experience variance in the ISR, given what we said and the fact that there will be remaining volatility on the ISR. So it includes this assumption or guidance include a little bit of buffer on the expense variance as well. Not a big amount, but there is some.
Thomas Fossard
executiveThank you, gentlemen. Thank you, everyone. Thanks for your time, and I think that now it's time to have a quick drink altogether if you are still have time with us. Thank you.
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