Sensirion Holding AG ($SENS)
Earnings Call Transcript · March 10, 2026
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Lars Dunnhaupt
ExecutivesGood morning from Zurich. Dear ladies and gentlemen, we would like to welcome you to Sensirion Holdings AG's conference call on the results of the full year 2025. From Sensirion, Marc von Waldkirch, Chief Executive Officer; Martin Wirz, Chief Financial Officer; and myself, Lars Dunnhaupt, Director, Investor Relations, are present. In addition to the financial press release we issued earlier today, we will be referencing a slide deck during today's call. The PDF of this presentation can be downloaded from the Sensirion's Investor Relations website under Results and Reports. As we begin, please note that this conference call is being recorded and that all participants are set to mute. During this conference call, we will be making forward-looking statements regarding future results and financial performance of the company that it can involve certain risks and uncertainties. The company's actual results may differ materially from the projections described in such statements. So please take a moment to read this. Marc will begin today by covering the highlights and business review for the full year 2025. Next, Martin will comment on the financial performance for the full year '25. And then Martin will turn over the presentation again to Marc, who will address our financial guidance 2026. Afterwards, Marc and Martin will answer your questions. In case you're sitting here in Zurich, it's very easy, please just raise your hands. And for the remote participants, please use the Q&A tool in the GoTo Webinar app, I will read out the questions at the end. And with that, I would like to hand over the presentation to Marc.
Marc von Waldkirch
ExecutivesThank you, Lars, and a warm welcome from my side as well here in Zurich. Thank you for joining this morning for the financial results. Well, so 2025 marks a significant step-up in revenue, but also in profitability. On the other hand, 2025 also marks a return to normality. After the overwhelming pandemic years of 2020 up to 2022 and the pretty challenging 2023, we are back to normal level in terms of profitability, but also in terms of the underlying business. That means the underlying business has no special effects anymore, neither positive special effects nor negative special effects. And I think that's an important first message to all the investors. Secondly, if we have a shorter look at the underlying business. On the one hand side, we were able to capture the market leadership in A2L last year. This newly emerging market established last year, we could actually gain more than 50% of the worldwide market share for Sensirion. The growth was not only driven by that. The growth was supported by a very broad support across all the markets. All markets recorded growth in local currency, 3 out of 4 end markets even at a double-digit level. That also underlines the pretty strong resilience in terms of diversification, either in regional terms, but also in market terms. And a first look ahead to the midterm view. Last year was also marked by a significant progress in our growth areas. They get more and more concrete now. And we also invite you to Market Insight Capital Market Day in mid of April, April 14 to have more time to also look into these growth areas across all the markets. The guidance 2026, I will comment in more detail at the end of the presentation, but already first glance on that, we expect to continue to grow this year, 5% to 12% on an adjusted base for the foreign exchange rates compared to the Swiss francs. And on the other hand, we expect to keep our profitability level on a stable level in line also with the midterm guidance. I'd like first to walk you through all the 4 end markets and to comment the dynamics in all these markets. To start with automotive. Automotive recorded a pretty small growth in local currency, a small reduction in Swiss franc terms. This also reflects the fact that we are deeply engaged in the Western automotive industry, which is at the moment, probably not the most dynamic one. We do see, but also on the other hand, strong momentum for the future years to come, especially thanks to the transition to e-cars and new emerging applications. We are deeply engaged in battery management systems, where we have also recorded first nominations. They will contribute already 2026 with the first programs. We also engaged in the refrigerant leakage that's more or less the same as we are going to talk about with the industrial markets, the HVAC market. But in cars, it's more based on propane or CO2 rather than on A2. But at the end of the day, it's refrigerant leakage monitoring for air conditioning systems in cars. And last but not least, there is a very promising new application around about assisted driving systems where the reliance and the reliability of the systems, all the LiDARs, the cameras, but also the brake by wire and all this stuff has significantly to be leveraged, to be increased in order to fully rely on these systems in case of fully autonomous driving cars. And whenever it comes to water ingress or any kinds of talking effects for the cameras, this is a potential risk for the driving for the autonomous driving cars. And this is a very important new application in terms of humidity and water ingress monitoring. Medical. On the other hand, medical, a pretty turbulent market in the last couple of years due to the pandemic on the one hand side, but also due to this quality issue of Philips, you might remember 3 years ago. Also here, we are back in normal levels, also in levels they are comparable to the pre-COVID situation with respiratory applications. On the other hand, we are working heavily on a full bunch of different new applications where we are going to leverage our very strong market position in flow rate measurements for all kinds of medical applications. So we are #1 in ventilators. We are #1 in CPAP industry. So all where we are going to measure the flow rate going into the patient or coming out of the patient. And now the next step there is actually to combine to leverage this strong position together with the portfolio of gas-sensing technologies we do have in the company in order to provide more than the flow rate only, but also to provide information about which type of molecules comes out of the patient, how much oxygen is in the breath -- out breathing air, how much carbon dioxide is in the out breathing breath. And this together, not just 2 sensors measuring these 2 figures, flow rate, but also the composition in parallel, but to bring these 2 parameters together in order to get more superior information, this is actually the next step we are targeting. Industrial. Industrial, the market, which is pretty highly diversified within the market itself, on the one hand side, we do have the HVAC there. We have, on the other hand, semiconductor business with gas-metering business in industrial. And over the whole bunch of different applications, we recorded a growth last year. Definitely, the main driver in industrial for this huge step-up of almost 50% in local currency was driven by A2L. I have a special slide on the next page about the A2L business. But there was also a contribution from new innovations. I think also that's important to highlight today. On the one hand side, we started the business with methane emission monitoring some years ago, and they contributed first time significantly to the growth in terms of revenue. But also our gas-chromatograph solution acquired back in 2021 also contributed to the growth of this market. A short look forward to the growth areas in the next couple of years. On the one hand side, thanks to our strong position as the leader, the global leader in A2L, we can actually continue our growth there. On the one hand side, because Europe and Asia is transitioning to A3, so to the next candidate of refrigerant leakage, which comes with an even lower GWP than A2L. While U.S. will stay for years with A2L. So there will be a kind of a separation of the market, A2L in U.S. for definitely more than 5 years from now on. And on the other hand, the transition in the next couple of years in Asia, mainly China and in Europe to A3. And this gives us a huge additional potential for the next years to capture not only the U.S. market in terms of A2L, but also the China and the Europe market in terms of the A3 leakage detection. First products are already on the market. They are serving pilot products of our customers, but it's very important now already to win these sockets in order to fuel the growth in the next years to come. One special slide about A2L. I recorded some kinds of confusion, especially at the financial markets about the future of A2L. It was -- still there are some rumors around that A2L was a one-off business in kind of a refurbishment of all the existing air conditioners, and that's not the case. A2L monitoring systems or leakage sensors are built into new ACs, not in old existing systems. They cannot be changed. So that means that that's extremely important to underline, A2L business came to stay, and it's not a one-off effect. What I illustrate here on this plot is the way how it has evolved last year and how is it expected to evolve in the next years to come. Back in 2025, we had this kind of front-loading, this strong H1. Front-loading is actually effect which comes with all new products. Typically, you can't see that in the corporate figures because all these ramp-ups are diluted by all the other business. A2L now was a special case because all our customers start at the very same time. And therefore, you could record this kind of front-loading in H1 last year. Front-loading means that the customers order more than they can immediately consume because they have to fill the pipeline, the supply chain from there downwards. On the other hand, front-loading means also to mitigate the risk to derisk the ramp-up in order to be on the safe side in case you have any kinds of suppliers, they cannot support you accordingly. Front-loading means also that there will be another phase where they start to optimize their inventory. And this happened in the second half of 2025, also illustrated here. What is expected to come this year and the next year is actually that we can now come to a stable contribution to the top line of Sensirion's business because now the front-loading has come, but also the inventory optimization has come. So all in all, we expect this year to be more or less on the same level in revenue contribution than last year and the years to come, a moderately growing business with A2L indicated also on this slide. But the main message here again is A2L came to stay, not came to vanish, to disappear again. Last but not least, consumer market, our smallest end market. This market recorded significant step-up by almost 50% in local currency, driven by a pretty broad number of customers, mainly served by our distribution channels from China up to U.S., also in Europe, we do have very interesting and promising accounts served by our consumer market. This market is additionally fueled by the miniaturization of our CO2 sensors. So there is the chip-based CO2 sensor now available on the market, unlocking and enabling additional applications that were not possible to serve before because of form factor reasons, but also cost reasons. And now they are enabled by the miniaturization of our solutions. What we can now serve is we can support our customers across the whole value chain of CO2 measurements from very highly reliable and very precise sensors down to the pretty small, very cost-efficient chip-based solution according to the application, according to the preference of the respective customers. And also this will support the growth in the consumer markets in the next years. Before I hand over to Martin to discuss the financial figures in detail, I'd like to highlight 2 special effects -- not special effects, but special topics, which are extremely important in the times we are living. On the one hand side, it's about the resilience. And the other topic afterwards is a short comment about the strategy for the next years. First of all, about resilience. We all know that we are living in extremely turbulent times. And the more turbulent the world is, the more important is also to strengthen the resilience of the business model. We are systematically working on this topic on the resilience of the business models across the whole value chain, starting first with the markets. So we are fully committed also to continue our diversification in markets, but also in regions. This was the case in the last couple of years. This will also be the case in the next couple of years. Therefore with a look at the growth areas, they are evenly distributed across all the markets. So there is no indication that we will become very exposed to one specific market, which would reduce the diversification. So that's also the future. In technology, we are working on the fact that we have the full value chain under our control. Typically, we start with the chip design, and we can go up across the whole value chain up to the algorithms, to the way how the sensor data are compiled at the end of the day. And this full control of the technology stack gives a high flexibility, high agility, but also a high level of resilience because we are not depending on any kinds of partners. In operations, we have built up in the last couple of years, that's pretty new. We have built up a global network of manufacturing centers. So we are producing in Switzerland, but we're also producing in Hungary, in China and in South Korea. And additionally, since 1 year, we have a manufacturing partner, a strategic manufacturing partner located in Mexico to serve the North America market with our solutions. On the other hand, we do have -- as a semiconductor company, we do have a kind of an exposure to the Taiwan area due to the origin of all the CMOS wafers. In order to mitigate this risk, we are running a pretty high level of wafers here in Switzerland in order to have the flexibility and especially the reaction time in case of any crisis in the Taiwan region. Additionally, we're also working on the fab transfer to have a double sourcing setup for the high-volume wafers, not just from Taiwan, but also from another fab, which is in Asia, but not in the domain of the Chinese government in order to increase the resilience there. These chips are already pretty well progressed, but not yet fully qualified. So we are at the latest stage of the development project also to make them available on the market. And last but not least, financially, yes, we are a Swiss company. That means we have some kinds of exposure to Swiss francs. Also there, we are working systematically to reduce this exposure in Swiss francs. One of these steps forward is that we are now almost half of our -- revenue is generated by products not anymore produced in Switzerland. So the figure at the moment is 45% of our revenue is generated by any products, either products that produced in Hungary, in Asia or in North America. The other topic I'd like just to spend one slide about is about the strategy. More will come about the strategy, the growth strategy, combined with concrete growth areas in our Capital Market Day on April 14. But just to give you a very short glance, there is no significant change to the strategy we have already communicated in the last Capital Market Day in 2024. Our target is to become the leader in smart gas sensing at a very broad base, not just in indirect quality, not just in environmental sensor, not just in humidity, but in the whole bunch of smart gas sensing. To do so, we do have a unique edge. And this unique edge is the fact that we do control the full technology portfolio of any kinds of technologies you need to measure small amounts of gases. From very cost-efficient chip-based technologies, up to very precisely high-end technologies, for example, the gas chromatography, we are running in the Netherlands. So we have the full launch. We can actually select those technologies, they suit best for the respective application for our customers and to provide tailor-made solutions for these kind of customers. To give you an example, A2L, when we started to think about A2L, we evaluated different technologies in our in-house technologies in order to select this -- the technology, which is the most suitable one for A2L, and this worked out. The fact that we have won more than 50% of the market share was not just a lucky punch, it was actually based on the fact that we do have the most convincing technology. And thanks to the benchmarking what we could actually do in-house based on the fact that we do have the technologies anyway available in-house. This is the base. What we are doing, we drive on the one hand side, our core, the core where we are already the leader market-wise. This is the core about humidity, about flow measurement, about environmental sensing. This core drives the leadership, the costs, the volumes. On top of that, we like to expand our business into the broader definition of smart gas sensing into selected mission-critical solutions. There are 3 main topics we like to go into where we are working on, and we will see on April 14, a lot of growth areas, almost all our growth areas are in one of these 3 categories. On the one hand side, it's about leakage sensing across all the markets, not level limited to HVAC only. A2L was only the starting point, which gives us an excellent platform to grow further. In A3, as I have mentioned before, in refrigerant leakage of cars, but there are many, many more of applications, they are linked to leakage. Secondly, it's about medical solutions. I shortly mentioned it before, to combine the smart gas-sensing technology we have with the strong market position in flow measurement we do have on the market. And last but not least, it's about industrial safety and efficiency. To give you an example there, it's about methane emissions, but also about a lot of different analysis supported by our gas chromatographs. The last category is typically pretty high end, pretty reliable solutions. More will come in the Capital Market Day on April 14. I don't like to walk you through this slide. This is more for your reference. I think it's important not just to talk about the strategy, which is far out for the next couple of years. And on the other hand, to look back to the financial figures. It's also important to link these 2 pages together. That means to reflect every time what has been done in the last couple of months in order to execute the strategy we have defined. This slide should actually give you the insights about the progress on the specific levels of strategy we have or we have been executing at the moment. And with that, I'd like to hand over to Martin for the financial figures.
Martin Wirz
ExecutivesThank you, Marc. And also from my side, a very warm welcome. It's a great pleasure and honor to present the financial results of last year. As you heard, 2025 was a very successful year for Sensirion. We have executed our growth strategy, demonstrated strong operational execution, margin resilience and significant cash generation. Despite a volatile macro environment and challenging FX situation, our business model proved to be scalable and structurally resilient, and this allowed us to convert the broadband revenue growth that you have heard about before into substantially improved profitability. Now let me walk you through the headline numbers. Net sales increased by 29% in local currencies and 24% in Swiss francs, reaching CHF 342 million. We heard from Marc, growth was, in particular, driven by the A2L business, but also a broadband demand in component business and full recovery in medical. Gross margin improved to 52.3%, and this reflects higher utilization, operating leverage result from our efficiency programs and the benefits of our increasingly globalized manufacturing footprint. We translated the strong top line into profitability. EBITDA more than doubled to CHF 63.5 million, resulting in a margin of 18.5%. This is well in line with our midterm ambition. Net working capital remained tightly controlled at 31.8% of last 12 months revenue, continuing the ongoing downward trend. Operating cash flow reached CHF 58.3 million, a material improvement compared to the previous year and cash flow -- free cash flow came in at 24.8% -- CHF 28.8 million despite continued growth investments. Overall, the year demonstrates strong growth, clear operating leverage and disciplined cost management. On the top line, let me briefly recap the revenue development. The organic growth of 29% in local currency was negatively impacted by CHF 50 million due to FX impact, resulting in a growth of 24% in Swiss francs. As we heard before, what stands out is our broadband growth across 3 of the 4 markets we are operating in. Automotive was flat with no substantial product launch last year, but significant progress was made across our growth fields, resulting in multiple project wins materialize in the ongoing period. Medical, plus 14.3% with CPAP and ventilation back to normalized growth trajectories and the Industrial segment with plus 47.9%, driven by the A2L market in the U.S., but also strongly supported by the broader industrial gas sensor demand. Consumer, plus 49.7%, supported the high -- supported mainly by the high demand in the component business across all the regions. And this brings me to the split by region, where we see a significant growth, especially in the Americas with 121%, driven not only by A2L leakage by the overall high demand in that region. APAC stands at 19% and EMEA at plus 6%, reflecting a healthy underlying demand globally. This diversification across end markets and region is an important foundation for resilient and future growth. Also, the gross margin structurally improved through scale, footprint optimization and our continued efficiency efforts. The gross margin reached 52.3%, an improvement of 300 basis points versus last year's period. The driver were the high utilization across the full product portfolio and in particular, the high-volume component products, but also the ongoing process improvements and efficiency programs contributed and especially a more globalized manufacturing network that increasingly balances cost exposure to foreign currency and the supply chain robustness. If we turn towards operating expenses, we see that the R&D intensity decreases to 18% of revenue, while investments continued to support our strategic growth areas. So we are scaling innovation efficiently without compromising long-term value creation. SG&A expenses decreased to 21.8% of revenue, reflecting operating leverage, efficiency programs and also here a continued globalization of our cost base. Our disciplined spending with target strategic investments during this year's steep growth phase is what enabled us to do a step-up on EBITDA margin. And these efforts are clearly visible on the EBITDA performance. EBITDA more than doubled to CHF 63.5 million, which corresponds to a margin of 18.5%. And this is a reflection of, of course, the strong revenue growth, but also the operating leverage across the whole P&L statement and the result from what I mentioned before, our efficiency programs and disciplined cost allocation. And as Marc mentioned, we are back on our midterm ambition, and this is very important for us. This regained profitability gives us the financial flexibility to continue investing in new growth areas while maintaining a disciplined and healthy financial profile. Turning to the full income statement. The operating profit EBIT came in at CHF 42.8 million, a margin of 12.5%. This is a significant improvement compared to the '24 results and in line with our midterm ambition. The net financial result was impacted by the Lumiphase participation result and substantial FX headwinds as the Swiss francs continued to be a strong currency. After tax, we closed the year with a net profit of CHF 20.1 million, corresponding to 5.9% of revenue. Now let me turn to net working capital. We continued to manage working capital with discipline. Net working capital decreased further to 31.8% of last 12 months revenue, which is supported by strong receivable management and payable optimization. Inventory levels at year-end are elevated as they include some timing effects. Looking at CapEx. CapEx was -- spending was CHF 26.8 million, reflecting our normal investment cycle and also strategic investments, in particular, in the construction of our second clean room in Stafa, the land expansion and our continued development of the Hungarian site. These investments support Sensirion's long-term scalability and manufacturing resilience. The second clean room in Stafa for capacity expansion and redundancy purposes is well on track to be completed by 2028. Our investment cycle is fully aligned with our midterm plan, and the business is scaling into it. Cash generation in the financial year '25 is a key highlight. Operating cash flow reached CHF 58.3 million, driven by revenue growth, higher profitability and diligent net working capital control. This corresponds to cash conversion rate of 92%. Free cash flow was CHF 24.8 million despite our strategic long-term CapEx investment. And important for me is that all investment activities, including clean room and land purchasing were fully funded through operating cash flow. This underscores the healthy underlying economics of our business. Finally, looking at the key points on the balance sheet. Our balance sheet remains a source of strength. Net cash increased by 35%. This reinforces our low-risk financial position and strategic flexibility. The equity ratio remains at a very strong 82%. Our leverage ratio continues to reflect a robust and resilient balance sheet that supports both long-term investment and day-to-day operations. Now let me conclude. 2025 was a successful year for Sensirion. We executed our growth strategy and grew revenue by 29% in local currencies. A strong operational leverage and disciplined cost management lifted our EBITDA margin by 800 basis points to 18.5% despite significant FX headwinds. Cash conversion reached 92%, supported by improved profitability and tight net working capital control. We closed this year with a very strong and solid balance sheet, giving us ample financial flexibility and strength for the years ahead. And with that, let me hand over back to Marc for the outlook of 2026.
Marc von Waldkirch
ExecutivesWell, thank you, Martin. I can't switch the slides. Thank you -- but it is a technical stuff. So a short look ahead to 2026. We are pretty confident to continue our structural growth. Structural growth means adjusted by the foreign exchange changes, that it means we expect 5% to 12% growth based on an adjusted level of the currencies before because we are impacted or affected by base effect due to the strong U.S. dollar last year. In Swiss francs, the structural growth is somehow damped by this negative foreign exchange changes. So that means we expect 5% to 12% structural growth, and this corresponds to CHF 335 million up to CHF 360 million expected on top line this year. They are working heavily now on the computer here. Well, in terms of profitability, we target to be on the similar level as in 2025. Again, we are back in more stable times compared to the overwhelming times of the pandemic, but also the challenging times of 2023. So we are coming now looking forward to more stable profitability profile. And again, also illustrated or supported by the guidance given for 2026. That means to expect to be on the same level as this year. A2L, again, I think that's important to highlight or to underline again, will contribute on a more or less stable level compared to 2025, but comes with a lower seasonality because the front-loading has gone but also the inventory situation has gone. That means we are now on a more stable contribution across the year. In sum, we should actually be on the same level as the year before. That brings it to the end, and hopefully, they can also fix the technical issues due to the end of the presentation, and we are open for your questions.
Lars Dunnhaupt
ExecutivesSo first of all, sorry for the technical hiccup. As stated before, we will now take your questions. We start here in Zurich.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsI have 2 questions. The first one would be you showed this evolution the time line of your A2L sales curve. And I was wondering if you could make some comments on how price development or price erosion typically fits into those curves? And the second question is, if you could give some more indications on your CapEx plans in 2026 and maybe beyond and how the time line of the whole construction project is looking.
Marc von Waldkirch
ExecutivesI can cover the first part. Yes, there are some price erosions they are typically of a lower single digit per year and highly spread from account to account. This is offset, on the other hand, by increasing volumes. On the one hand side, increasing volumes with the existing accounts, but also especially, we are still winning additional accounts in A2L. Either those, they have started first with competitors of us, and they onboard us now as a second source or in other way, there are a lot of second source situations from the very beginning where we can increase now our share. So this are in volumes, we have a significant growth. In price, there will be some kinds of erosion. And all in all, that brings us to the stable contribution this year and a moderately growing expectation for the years to come onwards.
Martin Wirz
ExecutivesWith regards to the CapEx spending for 2026 and beyond, of course, it's one driver is the building the clean room building that we are constructing in Sensirion. In there, but there are 2 phases. One happened last year, reflecting that result be the planning, but also the first part of the deconstruction of what was there. And now in January, the construction started, lasting about 2 years, that's where the most of the cash out will be for the CapEx side, and that's over this year. And next year, around CHF 40 million for the construction of the clean room. And then, of course, there will be also equipment to that part.
Marc von Waldkirch
ExecutivesAll together, not per year.
Martin Wirz
ExecutivesNot per year, exactly for the whole. But of course, that's on top of the kind of the normal CapEx.
Marc von Waldkirch
ExecutivesI think that is first.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsYes. Two questions from my side. You're guiding 5% to 12% organic growth on a much higher base. You mentioned that this growth is driven by a multitude of projects. But can you maybe highlight 1 or 2 projects where you feel the most confident or the most relevant, which is driving that growth? And the second question will be on A2L as well. I mean, looking ahead, you anticipate share gains just to have a bit of a sense how competitive that market is because I don't know how critical that component is for the end client. I could envision quite a competitive situation dual sourcing and so on. Just don't have a bit of a sense what you're seeing in that market. What makes you confident that youn gain share.
Marc von Waldkirch
ExecutivesFirst of all, 2026 was on the growth drivers in automotive, for example, as I thought and mentioned battery management systems, we've got different nominations back in during 2024, but also 2025. The first product until now either Phase to be ramped up. So at the very moment, we have the first programs to ramp up, so they will contribute in automotive to be very concrete on that. In medical, we -- I mentioned that this combination of flow and gas composition, management, gas sensing measurement that was there. The first project will kick in this year already. So also disclosures come more and more to materialization. And also, this will support the medical revenue. In A2L, this will be more or less flat as already mentioned. In industrial, I see support from the gas chromatographs on the other on the one hand side, to continue to grow. But on the other hand, also about the methane emission program, which is deployed more and more as oil and gas sites and which is anyway a kind of a recurrent business, thanks to subscription models. So I can remember that this oil -- gas, methane emission program is a subscription-based business model that means that comes with a kind of recurrent revenue stream. To reduce distribution consumers, it's less concrete to highlight one project. The only one I can, because it's highly diversified through these channels. One program can probably be highlighted. We can also talk about that because everybody of you is highly invited to buy one of these indoor air quality monitors whenever you visit IKEA. You will get there a pretty smart, very small indoor air quality monitor with a display, which is pretty nicely done by IKEA just buy it because all the sensors are from Sensirion. Also this helps, but this is just one specific product. The other question, about the competitiveness in A2L. Well, on the one hand side, we have to reflect that this sensor is extremely crucial for the business or for the air conditioner because there are regulations in place. So they have no chance to sell any kinds of A2L-based air conditioners in U.S. without this functionality inside. That means also this is a mission-critical sensor part for the whole air conditioner when this part fails they have a problem even in the field. So the mission criticality is more than obvious. Secondly, it's a UL-certified product. That means it will be hard. There will be high entry barriers for any additional players to come into this market. Typically, the air conditioner market or the HVAC industry in general is a pretty risk averse industry. And for example, one manager told me a pretty top manager of one of our customers. They told me 1 year ago. This is a heavy transition we have to undergo, this change from A2L. And I hope definitely -- and he was at the age of 50, I hope definitely that this will be the last transition I have to manage up to my retirement. And I think this symbolizes also the way how this industry works. So they are not really enthusiastic about changes. So therefore, I anticipate that the barriers for newcomers to come in due to the criticality of the product, due to the certification by UL, but also by the mentality of this market is pretty high. There will be kind of competitiveness between the 3 players they are in, but I think we have pretty good cards in that terms. Does that answer your question? Michael?
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsYes. Just trying to understand the A3L potential. It sounds a bit closer on the time line than I probably thought in Europe and in Asia. Is that a market similar size of that, what we see now in the U.S., also like the technology that you would use for that, the competitive landscape, just that we can understand a bit what that would actually mean going forward. And maybe if you can, I would, of course, love to hear a bit of an update on Lumiphase. It's like 1/4 of your pretax profit that you are basically investing. I'm not calling it losing. Just trying to understand where are we in this project? Or maybe you can give us a bit color on that?
Marc von Waldkirch
ExecutivesSo first about A3. Yes, the potential of A3 is similar to A2L, but again, not replacing A2L in the U.S. business. It's a more Asian and European business. The dynamics and the time lines for this business is completely different because it's higher diversified in regulations in the functionalities or the applications which comes in. First of all, heat pumps will actually be transitioned to A3. Heat pumps is a pretty small market in volumes. That means this business will not go in advance as we experienced with A2L, it will come gradually from year-to-year more. First of all, with heat pumps, they are pretty limited markets later down the road with air conditioning, which is significantly larger. What I have mentioned before is what is now ongoing is kind of first nominations, not yet done, but they will come this year. And it's not yet about the high volumes because the higher volumes are not yet in the transitional phase, but it's so important now to win the sockets in order to have a big step into customers' accounts, also to demonstrate the reliability of our own solution. And again, this is the same story as in my answer to A2L, it's a critical, mission critical piece of the whole stuff. That means, therefore, it's important now to make this strategic step into the A3 markets. The revenue and the battery to materialize will come gradually from year to year and not from one moment to the other. About Lumiphase, I think Lumiphase, there is not so much new stuff to share. On the one hand side, they are progressing pretty well on the technical terms. That means they are -- they do have now their chips in their hands, they work. There are some parameters still to fix. It's not fully done. On the other hand, there is this race against the other technologies, the so called TLM technology. Also they are facing some issues to fix. So there is kind of a head-by-head race ongoing at the moment, which is the same statement that I can do compared to end of last year is that the race is not yet foreseeable where is the first application, where in higher volumes, this technology will be deployed because at the end of the day, they are at the moment one is unclear how fast the technology will change. And secondly, which of these two technologies do get the higher portion of this cake at the end of the day. What is fully clear for the market also to -- this is also not new, but just to emphasize that again, which is fully clear and fully undoubtful is doubtless as the fact that for the higher bandwidths to come and to be asked by the market. Due to the AI centers, they have to go into new materials. The existing materials, the established technologies cannot support the next journey with the next steps in the journey to tie bandwidth. This is more than clear how fast and which technology with which portion is still an ongoing race.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsMaybe 2 quick questions for Martin. I was wondering whether you could give us the '26 growth outlook without FX, without the A2L impact. So we understand what the remaining business outside of A2L is expected to grow in '26? That would be the first question. The second one on the Industrial business '25, you could also give us the number of the underlying growth, excluding A2L? And maybe for Marc, maybe you can help us understand, if we look at the '26 growth outlook, which is below your midterm outlook, what the bridge is for the midterm. So how do you expect this acceleration in the next couple of years, what are the key levers and the more big picture.
Martin Wirz
ExecutivesForward-looking or backwards looking, we don't specify products related to revenue. So therefore, I cannot give you the split into A2L and the business, but it's clear that we are there in the dominant market position, so from the market that we have the biggest market share in the side.
Marc von Waldkirch
ExecutivesSo for competitive reasons, we cannot share the portion of revenue generated by A2L, sorry for that. But what we have indicated, we have more than 50% of the market. So this is at least an indication. And to the second question about the growth drivers in the next years and the acceleration, I think you're right. If you just focus on 2026, structural growth is 5% to 12% compared to 10% to 15% in the midterm guidance. If we also reflect the 29% this year, it looks different. So in one year, yes, you are slightly below that. On the other hand, also A2L is more or less stable, so not contributing to growth rate in 2026, also diluting some kind of the growth rate figure. What that generates next couple of years? I think this is exactly the topic of the growth areas. We shortly highlighted and we'll call in more details on the Capital Market Day. This is about the transition to e-cars, which is a lot of programs. They are still pretty small. A lot of these growth areas, by the way, they are -- we have been working since years they are now at the stage to be materialized, but not yet contributing heavily. So for example, to give an example, battery management. There are already first revenues generate now in January and February, they are not yet huge because it costs more and more. And this will also accelerate the growth past the next couple of years. A3 the same, A3 is concrete is a product on the market that the revenue contribution today with A3 is still intact. And as I have indicated before to the question of Michael has the potential to grow to a level comparable to A2L. And all the details of all these growth sales, all the markets will come on April 14.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsMaybe one follow-up if I may. You said you're expecting moderate growth in A2L from '27, what does moderate mean in terms of growth rates?
Marc von Waldkirch
ExecutivesModerate as indicated here on the slide, I don't flip back to that. It's still difficult to say because we have this kind of counter play between some kinds of price erosions and on the other hand, some volume increase. But what we expect is a kind of lower single-digit growth in the next years to come.
Lars Dunnhaupt
ExecutivesThere are some questions from the online audience. Maybe we'll take them now. First question is around A3, can you talk about the timing of the ramp-up of A3? Is it in '26 or more beyond? And what is your view on Sensirion's market position in this market?
Marc von Waldkirch
ExecutivesWell, about the time line, again, first products will kick in this year, but at the limited revenue contribution. Sockets will be nominated this year or we expect at least that sockets will be nominated this year but not yet generating revenue because typically, nomination takes some time to make all ready. That means the significant contribution from A3 will come down the road 2027, '28, '29 and '30. So this is actually the journey from year-to-year, more 2026 is not heavily affected positively by A3. And the second question?
Lars Dunnhaupt
ExecutivesSensirion's position?
Marc von Waldkirch
ExecutivesSensirion's position, I think there, we are in excellent positions because the whole world has actually recorded that we are the market leader from the very beginning in A2L and it's not a technology to be applied. But at the end of the day, it's the same application. And it's not just that, but we have also one of accounts in the electric industry. And it's not the case that we have only won just U.S.-based accounts for the A2L business. We have also won Chinese accounts they are serving the U.S. business. And therefore, they are also regulated to design in A2L sensor. And these accounts can now be leveraged also to reach out to the A3 application across the whole globe. It's not just that we have now to navigate to other accounts, they are more or less the same accounts as we already have been serving for the A2L business. And I think that brings us this combination of a proven technology and combined with the fact that we do have the accounts, this brings us to an excellent position.
Lars Dunnhaupt
ExecutivesAnd then the second online question is, the company is guiding a margin in '26 similar to '25 but also sales margin will be mid- to high teens. So the question from the caller is, should we assume that the margin will be 18%, 18.5%, that what Sensirion has achieved in 2025?
Marc von Waldkirch
ExecutivesI'd say, similar to 2025. So I would be extremely happy to share this information with you. But honestly, we don't know. The world is too turbulent to guide a profitability level within 0.1%. So that means, we target to be on the similar level as 2025, that indicates somehow [indiscernible] in line with our unchanged and confirmed midterm guidance in profitability of mid- to high teens. I think more is not even in our hands at the moment to disclose because we don't know it. The world is too turbulent to be more precise in that terms.
Lars Dunnhaupt
ExecutivesAre there any more questions here from the audience in Zurich?
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsJust one follow-up question on the margin discussions in general. We have seen in, I think, in the last 2 years, at an R&D level in percentage of revenues has been clearly below 20% at least in '25, I don't remember in '24. But I remember in your midterm guidance, you also always stated how much R&D you want to spend in terms of revenues? And is that over -- I think it was clearly above 20%, no?
Martin Wirz
Executives19%.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsOkay. 19% is the level that we can also...
Marc von Waldkirch
ExecutivesIndicated in the last midterm guidance back in 2024.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsOkay. So that's the level that we can look at more or less right now also.
Marc von Waldkirch
ExecutivesTo give you some light into that is, we are targeting more the solution business, the specialized business based on our chips. And the chip business typically comes with pretty high R&D intensity, but also with pretty good gross margin profile. While the solution business, depending on the business comes with lower R&D intensity and also sometimes with a lower gross margin, and this is balanced out in a way. This was actually our statement in the in November 2024.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsYes. And it's A2L also well less -- obviously you have lower, obviously, low gross profit margin but lower R&D...
Marc von Waldkirch
ExecutivesNevertheless, we could manage it to keep the gross margin above 52%, which historically a pretty good level, even compared to years in the past, where the main part of our business came actually from components.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsYes. And maybe just one last one from my side. You mentioned methane leak testing, which is a subscription-based model. And if I recall it correctly, in one of the last presentations you mentioned a revenue number for that, a couple of millions. So I was just trying to understand, did it grow? And is the business model is still intact with President Trump, not really caring about methane gas, I would say.
Marc von Waldkirch
ExecutivesIndeed, I think that the business model anyway is intact as the subscription-based approach is fully intact. Definitely, there are some headwinds from the administration, Trump or at least no tailwinds anymore to push the oil and gas companies to invest more into the methane emission programs. But what we see in the market, at least for the large the super majors, so the large globally active companies is there is not only the Trump administration. There is also kinds of investors. There is kind of a brand reputation in the market. There is also European Union. They like actually two import oil and they also have some regulations in place. So there are many, many other players in the market pushing these oil and gas companies to do more in ESG. And what we also reflect is that or what we see in the market is also the Trump administration has a kind of time line. That means the next 3 years. In the 3 years, it's nothing in the oil and gas industry when it comes to investments. So they think 5 to 10 years forward. That means to summarize it, there is some reduced tailwinds. I wish to have the tailwinds as we used to have before. But nevertheless, the business model, also the way how it goes forward is absolutely as projected.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsI would like to ask a follow-up question on your CapEx plans. So my understanding was that the extraordinary CapEx range was guided for CHF 40 million to CHF 60 million. And I was just wondering whether CHF 40 million is now the new CHF 40 million to CHF 60 million probably not because you mentioned there will also be machines coming. So maybe you can give us...
Martin Wirz
ExecutivesThe midpoint there is this a fair assumption?
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsSo CHF 50 million in total.
Martin Wirz
ExecutivesAnd stay around that. We still have that range depends also on how fast we build up what is inside the clean room then. So I would say the range is still valid. And if you're there towards your midpoint assumption.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsVery clear. Thank you. And I was just wondering in terms of cash outflow, whether you could repeat the timing of the CHF 50 million.
Martin Wirz
ExecutivesOver the next 2 years.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsOkay. So '26 and '27.
Martin Wirz
Executives'26 and '27 majority part and then some of the equipment may come later towards '28 when it becomes operational, but the majority part is in construction of the building, and that's this year and next year.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsAnd so half would be a sensible...
Martin Wirz
ExecutivesYes.
Lars Dunnhaupt
ExecutivesWe have another question from the online audience from Sandeep. Sandeep wants to learn a little bit more about the auto market. Question is when will the auto market, we expect the auto market return back to growth? Or do you need to wait for recovery of the non-China markets to grow this business again?
Marc von Waldkirch
ExecutivesWell, I'm pretty confident that we come back to growth already this year 2026, with automotive, thanks to the underlying new growth areas, mainly battery management, which is the most concrete one, which kicks in first.
Lars Dunnhaupt
ExecutivesAny additional questions here from the audience in Zurich? Checking if there are more online questions. We have no more questions. Then with that, I would like to thank everybody for the interest in the Sensirion results. And as mentioned before, on April 14, Sensirion invites all investors to an investor update in Stafa where we will share growth and markets insights of the end markets, which Marc and Martin have already addressed today. You can register on-site in Stafa or also participate online information are available on our website or just reach out to me. With that, thank you very much for your interest. And have a nice day.
Marc von Waldkirch
ExecutivesThank you.
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