Service Corporation International (SCI) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

So hello, everybody. Thanks for the next presentation. We have Service Corp International, and we're very pleased to have Aaron Foley, Senior Vice President and Treasurer; Andrea Low, Director of Investor Relations. So Aaron, thanks for doing this again this year.

Thanks, A.J.

We're 10 months into the year. What are some of the things you highlight as surprises, positives, challenges that the company has faced. How would you sum up the year up to this point?

Sure. So obviously, we look at things on a funeral and a cemetery segment type basis. I'd say the volumes actually hung in there really well versus kind of what our expectations were coming in, in February. We had expected a slight decline in volume because we've seen a lot of volatility in those trends from a seasonality perspective throughout the year. We took our 2017, '18, '19 average seasonality over that time period, kind of put it on top of that decline in volume. And we've really hit that pretty close every single month of this year. For example, this past third quarter, where we posted a 3% decline in volume, we'd expected that based on a normalized seasonality trend. So I'd say that volume really kind of seems to have normalized, and we've gotten a lot of the volatility out. And I think that we should see continued foundational strength from here going forward. So I'd consider that a positive. I think continuing to see the cremation mix shift being more moderated. I think we posted around a 50 basis point increase in cremation mix. So kind of we've been following similar trajectory and trends that we saw in 2024, but I think we were kind of premature to call it at that point. I think we're now in a 50 to 100 basis point shift versus 100 to 150 basis point shift that we previously had talked about. The kind of surprise, I'd say, a little bit on the downside might be associated with SCI Direct and some of the volatility that's come along with that shift that we've been doing there, not only deferring the delivery and recognition of urn kits on these preneed contracts that we're selling as we've shifted these changes over about 5 or 6 different waves over the last 18 months. But the commensurate impact then on -- as we've shifted from trust to an insurance product, getting the counselors licensed and getting them comfortable with addressing the benefits and protection aspects of selling an insurance product. That's been, I think, a little more volatile than we would have expected coming into the year. On the cemetery side, I'd say that generally, our expectations for low to mid-single-digit growth in cemetery has held true. I think we all recall back in April when we saw a lot of volatility in the markets at that point when we spoke with you in May, we kind of moderated our expectations out of caution down to a low single-digit growth. But as we've seen in the second quarter, we saw growth in our core preneed cemetery consumer, but we've seen that even more. So in the third quarter, we posted a 10% growth. And so I think we're obviously hopeful that we can continue that momentum, and we're giving our sales teams and our marketing efforts, all the tools that they need that we hope can help buttress that and continue that growth into the future. But those are kind of the dynamics that have unfolded this year and kind of seem a little bit contrary to what some others have seen on the consumer side.

Yes. No, that's good. On the third quarter call, you made some initial commentary about 2026 saying that you thought you'd be in your sort of target 8% to 12% EPS growth range next year. What are some of the key factors behind that variables, headwinds, tailwinds that you think about when you made that comment?

Yes. So our 8% to 12% algorithm is really predicated on a funeral flattish volume, up low single-digit growth in average, helping to drive a low single-digit growth in revenue, fixed cost increasing, the operating margin percentage kind of staying stable, but seeing some incremental operating margin dollars coming through. Cemetery side, mid-single-digit growth in preneed, assuming a 95% recognition rate should drive low to mid-single-digit growth in the revenue top line. Of course, fixed cost growth, you should see some margin expansion dollars as well as on the percentage range. That's the normal algorithm that gets you to 5% to 7% of our earnings growth framework. The remaining 3% to 5% is going to come from capital deployment. Hopefully, we'll be more lucky on the acquisition front to be able to deploy more capital there. But absent that, we should be able to achieve it with our $75 million to $125 million acquisition target. And then, of course, we've got some amount for growth capital. And then finally, continuing our strategy of deploying capital to share buybacks. Now some of the factors, as I think about over the last 2, 3, 4 years that have really been headwinds to the story, the obvious being volumes contracting since COVID, that seems to have normalized. The associated impact on cemetery velocity, for example, when a husband or a wife or partner passes away, you're going to want a preneed associated. So as that funeral volume declines, we've seen a decline in cemetery velocity. That seems to be normalizing as well. You had interest rates growing '22, '23, that took $80 million to $100 million of a headwind over that time frame. At this point, you would expect interest rates to be flat, if not decline over 2026. Our tax rate, we had a 22%, 23% tax rate in '24. As we've progressed to '25, that's grown to 25% to 26% as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act from 2017, which gave us the ability to deduct stock options associated with our top 5 highly compensated employees that kind of lapsed at the end of 2024. So we've had a headwind from a tax perspective of about $0.10, I'd say. So that's a good 3% to 4% of our kind of normalized earnings growth framework as a headwind. And finally, we've had this dynamic and volatility that's been coming through associated with SCI Direct and the business shifts that we've been doing there, which we began the year having transitioned or completed about 80%. And as we sit here today, we're 100% done with all of those transitions. So as we get into the back part of the fourth quarter and then look forward into 2026, as Tom mentioned on the call, expecting some nice growth from general production from that front.

Okay. Okay. You're calling out a return to more stabilized funeral volumes next year as opposed to modest declines and more quarterly volatility in recent years. What gives you the confidence that you'll see that? Is it lessening pandemic carryforward, you've run its course primarily? Or is it -- are we starting to see the pickup in the baby boomers hitting 80 yet?

I don't know if we're quite there yet. But I think it's partly due to what I was mentioning earlier about us really being able to hit these expectations from a slight decline in volume and the trajectory or seasonality of those volumes coming through really being in line with our expectations. So getting more predictability there. Obviously, a strong or weak flu season can affect that now just as it did during COVID. But another thing, as I looked at the data and our volume pre-COVID, if you go back to the late 2010, so let's say, 2009, 2010 kind of period, actually, our volume was declining around 2% to 3% per year. And that was because we were in this dearth of birth type generation where the period during the Great Depression, people just weren't having as many babies. And so we were seeing that dynamic, but we were coming out of that. So 2 thousand, let's say, '15, we were closer to 1% to 2% down. And as you got really to 2018, 2019, volume was kind of flattish. So the trajectory was obviously -- was increasing during that time. COVID threw a wrench in all that, obviously, and we've seen that dynamic. But as we're now getting to this more stabilized state, I don't think necessarily the COVID impacts are gone because people in their 40s, 50s and 60s passed away because of complications associated with getting COVID as well as other comorbidity type issues. So you're going to have, I think, a long tailwind associated with it. But I think the more acute impacts from a pull-forward perspective have been in the years immediately following. I think as each year goes by, that pull-forward impact is going to moderate. So it will be a natural tailwind going forward. That being said, as we sit here today, COVID continues to be a pretty strong impact to mortality within the U.S. And kind of like flu, it's likely going to be part of the base, if you will. And so those dynamics that as we get further away, I think more stability in the base and looking at the trajectories before, in the medium term, I'm thinking the volume should be somewhat moderate, flattish over the near term. Hopefully, we're not too far off from that perspective or expectation. But I think it's really still a few more years out before the baby boomer demographic begins to impact us. I think our view is that's likely toward the latter part of this decade, but that's then going to be a sustained type growth and strength that's coming through from the funeral top line perspective that's going to last a good decade likely toward the latter part of the 2030s until it kind of plateaus and may subside for a little bit as we get into the 40s.

And what is the average age these days of a customer?

Our clientele is around -- it's still around the 80, 81 type range, maybe a little bit lower than pre-COVID.

Right. So I do think the first baby boomer hits 80 next year, 2026, but you're saying you still would say before it's a noticeable difference, it's probably a couple more years than that.

And there are really 2 factors there is one, yes, that's the first baby boomer cohort year, but it still took time for that baby boomer trend to grow to kind of where the birth rates ultimately got to from a slope perspective. So I'd say that, that's a dynamic. But also once an individual usually makes it to 80 years old, they're more inclined to get to 85, 86. And so I think those 2 dynamics are what give us the perspective as it's likely further.

And when you think about what it takes to drive margin improvement in the funeral business, I mean, as you started to see the uptick in preneed cemetery sales, you've seen steady margin and pretty dramatic over the -- if you look at it over a 10-year period. What is the point where the volume growth is enough?

Yes. I think, as I mentioned, in the 8% to 12% assumes flat volume, 2% to 3% -- let's say, 2.5% to 3% type volume with the more moderate cremation mix. I think if you could get that top line similar to cemetery in that low to mid-single-digit type range, let's say, 3% to 5%, and as long as we can keep the inflationary impact on fixed cost at that 2.5% type level, that excess should be able to grow that margin like we've seen on the cemetery side. And if you expect this demographic wind or demographic tailwind to be here, that's 10 years that you should be seeing some expansion on that front.

Right. No, of course, that makes a lot of sense. Company did make a decision -- well, you renegotiated your insurance contract a year ago, significant improvement in terms for the company. But alongside that, you've made this decision to emphasize insurance over trust funds a little bit. Maybe just walk through for someone that's new to the story, why -- what's behind that thinking that we're going to emphasize one versus the other?

Sure. So you really have to separate first, funeral from cemetery. Cemetery is 100% trust, and that's because the contracts have multiple items that can be delivered at different times, and then we put multiple people on them that, again, can have different contractual requirements. So for an insurance, you really need to underwrite to a specific time. So there's too many complexities on the cemetery side to make it make sense for insurance. So 100% trust on that side. Funeral really have to break it out then between our core business and then SCI Direct. And that's -- the core business is running around $1.2 billion or so of production. The SCI Direct is around $200 million to $300 million of production. Historically, the core business really has kind of -- we've tried to maximize that insurance production mix already. And so over the past 5, 10 years, we've been around 70% insurance, 30% trust. And that 30% is really comprised of the expectation of terminal imminent consumers where a person who may be in hospice who may be passing away within the next several months, an insurance company does not really want to underwrite that type of consumer because there's a premium tax that comes along with that type of dynamic if that occurs and they try to avoid that. And so that 30% is made up of terminal imminent contracts that we're selling. It's made up of contracts in New York, where we're not able to sell insurance contracts. And then it's made up of counselors who've yet to receive their insurance licenses to be able to sell insurance, they're going to be selling trust to be able to make the commission. On the SCI Direct side, prior to July 2024, they've been 100% trust. But as we've looked at these 4 or 5 waves, as I've mentioned, over the last 1.5 years, where we've been switching SCI Direct, the operating structure from recognizing an urn kit, recognizing away-from-home travel protection, but deferring the cremation service, we're now switching that up a bit that we're now also deferring that urn kit. And each wave that we do that with, you're getting an earnings hit -- a near-term earnings hit associated with deferring that urn kit, but that's going to be coming out of backlog on average over the next 10 years. And you're already starting to see it come through in the average where we saw 13% to 14% growth in the third quarter in that non-funeral home preneed side of things. But on that note, as we've seen that deferral of the urn kit occur, we're then switching at the same time from a trust to an insurance type model, where we're then able to generate a general agency commission now that the rate that we're getting is a very good rate and looking at it from an NPV perspective, it's a very strong compelling argument to make. We're making the switch, and that's helping to offset that decline in that urn -- delivered urn earnings loss that we're having on the near term. And so I think that we're kind of now in a new mix type perspective. You'll probably see in total, that 70% -- 65% to 70% insurance mix grow to 70% to 75% insurance in total.

And is the average life on an SCI Direct contract, the 10 to 12 years that it is on the traditional?

It's about the same. I wouldn't say they're much different.

Okay. Okay. I guess I had some sense maybe a little younger. What about the overall comment on the cremation rate? I know you guys have said if you look at some of the other English-speaking markets, they all peak out at about 70%. But when you get 50 plus, it tends to moderate the pace. Is that what we're seeing play out here? Or do you think the fact that the cremation rate has been a little less than the 150 to 200 basis points in the last 1.5 years or so. Is that -- what's driving that, do you think?

Yes. I do think it's more the earlier comment that you made. So today, we're at about 57% cremation mix. I would say that the plateau or the stabilization seems to occur around 75%. And so as we're getting closer to that point, I think you'd expect that mix shift to moderate to some degree. So you've got that dynamic. You've also got the dynamic that in a lot of the states -- or cities, I'm sorry, that we're operating in, big urban areas, they already are kind of really close to that cremation mix where you're at around 75%. And so if those are already stabilizing, then you're kind of waiting for the remainder of the businesses to kind of get closer to that cremation mix shift as well. And so I think in 2024, as we were seeing this moderate shift of 50 to 70 basis points, we would get asked, are we now at? Are we below that 100 to 150? I think it was still too early at that time. But I think as we've seen the trajectory of that carry forward into 2025, we saw in the second quarter, a 20 basis point growth. I think that, that's probably unrealistic, but I do think that it's more reasonable around that 50 to 100 basis point level.

Okay. And in terms of what that means for you from a revenue, I mean, we used to think of it as, what, 1% to 2% revenue headwind when you were at the higher end. And so...

I'd say it still remains around 1% is about a $15 million or so revenue kind of headwind. The EBITDA headwind is about $13 million. And so if we're going to be in that 5 to -- I'm sorry, 50 to 100 basis points type range, you're in that $6 million to $13 million kind of EBITDA headwind type range, which again, it's a headwind, but when you're talking about $1.3 billion, $1.4 billion of EBITDA, it's manageable.

And there was a time, I know when there was a big push to sell more full-service funerals to people that were just using cremation as a way to dispose of the body. Are we sort of at the level where that's stabilizing the percentage of people that choose a full service to go along with the cremation? Or is that still growing?

No, I think it seems to have stabilized. We're not seeing it really decline any dramatically. We're not seeing it really grow dramatically. So I think we're kind of in the normalized type pattern for the people who do choose cremation, who ultimately do want some type of memorial service, it's really kind of stable.

And when you look at -- try to break down the revenue per case, traditional funeral versus cremation, are they both growing at about the same level at this point? Or is the cremation growing a little faster?

I would say from an average perspective, it truly is kind of inflationary type growth on both the burial and the average -- I'm sorry, burial and the cremation type average. Again, there are 22,000 funeral homes in North America. So it's a very moderate barriers to entry. And so the pricing power is really not too tremendous.

Okay. Cemetery preneed sales production has been a long-term positive trend, mid-single digits, even some quarters better. I think there have been some thought that you're getting to the point where that baby boomer cohort is finally moving through that, but you're still showing pretty good production. What do you think is driving that? And do you think it's sustainable to say mid-teens -- I mean, mid-single digits is still the growth number for the foreseeable future?

Yes. No, I do think so. I mean, as you mentioned, the oldest baby boomer is 80. The youngest is 65. So they're still in that area that is kind of a target consumer for us. So generally, when we see consumers who get to this time in their life, they want to get some of their end-of-life plans in order. And so I do think that there's continued opportunity there. There's going to be a bit of a lull, but the subsequent generations, there's still going to be growth to be coming there. But as I mentioned or you've heard us talk about on the calls, there's a very high correlation between cemetery velocity and at-need funeral volume. And I think as we start seeing the baby boomers impacting the funeral segment from a funeral volume perspective, you're going to continue to see strength then coming on the cemetery velocity side coming from that. And when you look -- when we've looked at the data, and there's -- the data is not all that great as it relates to how much have we penetrated with our preneed program into the baby boomer demographic, we don't think that we've hit a tremendous amount, if you will. And so I think as we see the at-need volume pick up, you're going to see a commensurate increase as well on the cemetery side that's kind of going to benefit that segment.

Are there any statistics out there that would somehow give you a sense of what percentage of the population, maybe it's in the relevant age group is probably the way to look at it, that has a preneed funeral cemetery plot that they've already bought. Is it -- would you say it's 10%, 25%?

Yes. I would say there's no good data that we find -- that we have found outside of kind of our own and performing focus group tests and going and having conversations with different folks about their preferences, what they have done, what they don't want to do, what they do want to do and kind of digging into that. But what we did do is we looked at the cemetery sales trends over about a 15-year period and looked at the number of units that we had sold over that time. We looked at what we viewed as our addressable market. And we come up with something. This is, again, 5, 6 years ago, so it may have changed, but around a 20%, 25% kind of penetration rate into there. And so...

So those people from late '60s to early '70s had bought a funeral clad.

That's right. That's exactly right. About [ 20 ]. Yes. And so I do feel like there's still opportunity there that's going to come through. And then as Tom has mentioned as well, the backlog that we've built on the cemetery side, it's about a $4 billion backlog. And as we start seeing the maturities coming through and that backlog coming out, you're going to see some continued strength coming there as well.

Right. And just while that's another point I was going to ask about. So you sell a person the plot, there are additional services when that -- when there's actually a death and someone's going into that gravesite. It's the headstone, tombstone, it's opening, closing, maybe a vault. It used to be a rule of thumb that, that was sort of -- half was the plot and then the other half is the -- all the other stuff. Is that still about the right ratio?

I'd probably say it's closer to 60% is the property or the plot and then 40% is the other products and services that are provided at death.

And are those all generally consumed at death? Or is some of that consumed over the course of the time?

Yes. No. I would say that there's a portion that is consumed before and that being the marker. Some people, when they get a lot, they want to go ahead and get the headstone carved and placed and left open for date. And so that is a situation where there is some amount of delivery and recognition associated with that, but -- yes.

Yes. That's good. I hadn't gotten some of those basic things nailed down in a while. On the acquisition front, which is an important part of the story, $75 million to $125 million of acquisition spend is the target. Last year, you were above that. This year, it sounds like you'll end up being roughly in that. What is the pipeline look like out there? Is there more conversations sort of steady? How would you describe it?

I'd say the pipeline is really strong. I would say that if we would be able to close all of those transactions that we have under LOI, we'd likely be toward the upper end of that range during '25. I'd say that it's more likely than not, though, that some of those are going to transition into 2026. But I think that as a result, that's going to put us nicely into that $75 million to $125 million range. I don't -- we've not put forth any official guidance yet necessarily. But I'd say that at this point, there's nothing that I'm aware of that would say we're going to change that too dramatically for '26. But the pipeline remains strong. That continues to be the highest and best use of capital that we can deploy, generating low to mid-teen type IRRs. And we've got a team in corporate development who are just out there cultivating relationships, trying to make sure that the families know that we would be happy to acquire them. We do right by their names that would stay on the side of the funeral home or cemetery. We've got a council of former owners who are some of our biggest cheerleaders out there helping to promote what we've done with their facilities subsequently. And so we're constantly trying to see if we can drive that figure higher.

Okay. And we think about being in the $75 million to $125 million, when you talked about earlier your growth algorithm, how much is -- would acquisitions then be? Would that be 1% on the growth rate, you think, or...

Yes. I think 1% to 2% is probably fair.

Right. And do you -- when you realize the benefit of the acquisition, does that typically happen 1, 2, 3 years? How long is it before you get it to where it's going to be stable margins under the SCI infrastructure?

I would say, unlike new build growth, when you do an acquisition, you've already got that top line coming through. And so once we complete the acquisition, it may take a month or 2 to kind of get some of our feet under us and working through some of the expense dynamics there. But we typically, over maybe a 12-month period, are able to achieve a lot of those synergies, immediately achieving our purchasing power associated with caskets, granite, vaults, such like that because of the scale that we're able to buy. We don't go in and do much by way of just headcount reduction because we don't want to create a negative environment at the location. So we usually allow natural attrition to occur and then kind of rightsize over time associated with that. And so I'd say that the synergy time frame is usually about 12 to 18 months where we're able to achieve about a turn of synergies off of maybe 8 to 9, 8 to 10x purchase multiple that we're doing.

And you had this agreement with the FTC under the Stewart deal that put some limitations on you, especially in your end markets. When you think about that $75 million to $125 million to the extent that those are properties now that are -- where you already have a significant presence, does that make them significantly more economically compelling when you can do something in those markets? And is that an increasing part of the pipeline in any way?

I wouldn't say it's necessarily an increasing part. It's one that I think we now have handcuffs that are taken off of us. Prior to that standstill agreement lifting, we were kind of at a disadvantage from a negotiation standpoint because unlike our competitors who could come in and do the acquisition and get it completed in, let's say, 5 to 6 months, we would have to say it's going to be 12 to 15 months because they would have to go through a supplemental review by the FTC. Those handcuffs are off. At the end of the day, they're still generational type businesses. And we don't want to just drive that sale by paying a higher price. We want to make sure that the IRRs that we're targeting, we're able to achieve in that low to mid-teen type IRR range. And so I think that there are opportunities. I would say, I believe the Hart-Scott-Rodino limit is around $120 million, $125 million per acquisition that above that, there has to be an FTC review. A lot of these chunky deals that we're looking at aren't necessarily at that range. But I would say that we're still somewhat sensitive in these markets, but I would say that it's not an impediment like it was back prior to that standstill agreement lifting.

We periodically hear about private equity divestments in the space. Those could potentially -- there could be competition for some of these deals, but they could also be acquisition targets. How would you assess that aspect of the lay of the land at this point?

Yes. I would say that they are out there. I don't think that they're necessarily as active. Park Lawn, who recently went private back in August of '24, they had been very active. They've kind of subsided to a certain degree. North Star is a very strong player in the markets as well, but they've been relatively stable, not too necessarily active on the acquisition front. And who we've really seen come out more from an acquisition perspective has been Carriage Services. They saw during the third quarter, a nice uptick in acquisitions. But that's after they've kind of come out of their leverage issues that kind of arose during COVID when they bought back a bunch of shares, but they're kind of emerging from that. And I think we're seeing them a little bit more on the negotiation front.

And I mean, you would be open to potentially buying one of those bigger ones if they were available, right, I would guess.

I think at the end of the day, all the pieces and parts to that algorithm would have to make sense. We have to be able to -- in a larger type acquisition like that, we may be okay getting slightly below that teen type -- low teen IRR. But at the end of the day, you have to evaluate synergies. You have to evaluate ultimately what amount of divestitures would be required under any administration. I don't think that even under the current administration, we could expect to be 0, but there's some amount and then obviously look at the valuation that's being put on the equity. And so we would be open to it. We're obviously watching the landscape. And if we see a hiccup and we think that there's an opportunity in working with our advisers, there may be an opportunity, but I don't see anything necessarily in the near term on that.

You have done some development and land acquisitions and frankly, a little bit in the divestiture mode, too. What -- anything to say on that, those types of outlays? I assume they would always be pretty modest, but anything to highlight there?

No, I think you're exactly right. They, particularly on the cemetery side, seem to be a compelling area that we want to continue to dip our toe into. As you know, historically, we've not been too focused on building new build cemeteries because of the outlay and how long it takes to get that capital up and running. But we've seen some great opportunities come up and execution on those. And so I think you'll see us kind of doing more of the same going forward, trying to find those right geographies where that makes sense to do that.

And maybe just as we wrap up on leverage, where the company is at on leverage, where -- what kind of range are you comfortable with? Maybe comment on that.

We target 3.5 to 4x leverage. We're currently at the end of September right at 3.6x. So at the lower end, we look at the leverage, we look at liquidity, which we've got $1.4 billion, $1.5 billion of liquidity. We look at our debt maturity profile just to make sure that we've got the foundation to be as opportunistic as possible given the opportunities that arise. If the share price were to take a big hit that we believe is unfounded, you'd probably see us want to come in and take advantage of that if there isn't a big swell of acquisition opportunities to come up. So we're just positioning ourselves to be ready for that opportunity when it arises.

And the dividend, how do we think about that?

Yes. We just raised our dividend. We're right now at $0.34 per share per quarter. So that was a 6% increase that was announced last week. We target a dividend payout ratio of 30% to 40% on a recurring net income type basis, and we're within that target range. And I think as we continue to grow, you're going to see us continue to increase that dividend.

Well, great. So I appreciate Service Corp participating in the conference again this year, and thanks, Aaron, and I hope everybody has a good afternoon.

Thank you, A.J. Thank you, everyone.