Siemens Energy AG ($ENR)

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Siemens Energy's Pre-Close Group Call for the Second Quarter of Fiscal Year 2026. Before we begin, please note that today's call is being recorded. The recording will be available on Siemens Energy's website until the quarterly results are published on May 12, 2026. Before we begin, I would like to draw your attention to the information and forward-looking statements notice, which you have agreed to by signing up to this call, which applies to comments made during the call today. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to your host today, Mr. Tobias Hang. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you so much, Moritz. Good afternoon, good evening, and a warm welcome to the Siemens Energy Q2 Fiscal Year 2026 Pre-Close Call. The purpose of today's call is to reinforce our previously communicated guidance and to recap key information already shared at quarterly results calls, conferences and road shows. We plan to publish our Q2 fiscal year '26 results at 07:00 a.m. CEST on Tuesday, May 12, with the webcast scheduled for 10:30 a.m. CEST, the same day. Our silent period will begin immediately after this call on March 31. As always, we will share the company compiled consensus one week ahead of the earnings release on Tuesday, May 5, after market close. Let me briefly guide you through today's agenda. I will begin with our assessment of the current situation in the Middle East. I will then share our perspective on market development, demand and pricing trends before touching on seasonality and concluding with a few additional updates for the second quarter. As our disclosure is restricted to the information already covered during the call, we will conclude today's session without a Q&A. Thank you for your understanding. Starting now with the current situation in the Middle East. For us, one priority stands above all else at this time, the safety of approximately 3,000 employees in the region. At the same time, we are doing everything we can to ensure continuity for our customers and partners to support the reliable operation of energy systems. In fiscal year 2025, the Middle East accounted for a high single-digit percentage of group backlog and revenue. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar are the core countries with Saudi Arabia by far the largest. It's also important to keep in mind that we do not meaningfully export from this region into other regions. And while we do not have major supply chain dependencies on the Middle East, we're continuously monitoring the situation for potential consequential effects. From a business perspective, while we see impacts on local projects, we do not see a material direct impact on our guidance at the current point in time. The primary impact from the conflict is on logistics and shipping, not the underlying demand, which can lead to project level delays and shifts in revenue recognition and cash timing. Potential indirect effects, such as severe logistical constraints in the event of a prolonged or high-intensity conflicts or deterioration in investment sentiments are currently not assumed but are being closely monitored. With regard to longer-term impacts, it is too early to draw conclusion at this stage. Let us continue how we see the market more broadly. The market context remains the same as we laid out at the Capital Markets Day and reiterated in the Q1 calls. We operate in a structurally growing electricity markets rather than a short-term cyclical environment, expect an elevated gas turbine market at least until 2035. On the grid side, we see a once-in-a-generation investment cycle over the next 15 years, driving -- driven by the need to connect renewables and replace aging assets. By 2040, around half of installed transformers will have reached retirement age. These themes underpin the demand strength we are seeing across our portfolio. Demand is real and accelerating. And the key challenge is capacity and speed rather than appetite. Turning now to demand and pricing in Gas Services. The Q1 order intake of 13 gigawatts was exceptionally strong, with demand broad-based across regions, customers and applications. That said, quarterly order intake will remain volatile, reflecting the large multi-train project nature of the business. We expect another strong second quarter, followed by a weaker second half of fiscal year 2026, reflecting the timing embedded in slot reservation agreements rather than any indication of a weakening market environment. With respect to gas turbine capacity, we are sold out until fiscal year 2028, with fiscal year 2029 slots filling up very quickly and in high demand. We have also started seeing some slots for fiscal year 2030 being booked. As we approach the end of the year, we do expect fiscal year 2029 to be largely sold out with limited capacity available in fiscal year 2030. When it comes to signing orders beyond that time frame, we will need to ensure that the broader supply chain and our EPC partners have demonstrated sufficient execution capacity. In supply chain, blades and vanes remain the industry's principal bottleneck and our #1 limiting factor. In Q1, we confirmed that pricing momentum remains favorable with further new units year-over-year margin uplift, and that we expect this trend to continue in the foreseeable future. We have also confirmed that current slot reservation agreements are signed with higher pricing versus current orders. When it comes to service, the starting point in terms of service profitability is already very strong, a better pricing for new service contracts and our order backlog continues. Nevertheless, we need to be mindful that it takes time on the better price service contracts starts to convert through the P&L. To elaborate, new turbines first need to be shipped and installed. Minor inspections typically begin 2 to 3 years thereafter, and major outages usually start roughly 5 years later. As a result, the real margin uplift from services will become much more visible towards the end of this decade or the beginning of the next, clearly beyond fiscal year 2028. Overall, demand for gas turbines and services remain structurally strong. The market is tight, pricing momentum remains favorable and while order intake will remain volatile, the full benefit of attractive service margins will materialize gradually over time. Let me continue with demand and pricing in Grid Technologies. The market has doubled over the last 3 years, and we continue to see further growth across all regions. Our book-to-bill in Grid Technologies have been at or above 2 for 3 consecutive years. Globally, customers are accelerating investments in transmission capacity to integrate renewables, meet rising demand and strengthen stability. The challenge is delivery time rather than demand. Even with factory expansions underway, transmission demand continues to outpace industry capacity. In Q1, we confirmed that pricing has plateaued at high levels in Europe, a message we have been consistent on for 5 quarters now. In the U.S. pricing is still moving up for certain products, particularly where customers value shorter lead times. Looking ahead, further margin improvement in grids will be driven primarily by productivity and operational excellence. Across both new and existing facilities, we are investing heavily in automation, including robotics and AI as well as further digitalization and simplification of production processes. Let me now turn to Siemens Gamesa. The offshore wind market has recently seen attractive auction outcomes, such as the U.K.'s Round 7. In addition, the targets agreed at the North Sea Summit reinforce our confidence that offshore winds will remain an attractive market in selected regions globally. We were also pleased to secure the first orders in our SG 7.0 platform, the successor of the 5.X in Q1. This provides tangible evidence that our turnaround strategy is translating into market traction. For Siemens Gamesa, the trajectory outlined in the first quarter remains unchanged. We expect the first half to be negative and the second half to be positive with full year breakeven remaining the clear commitments. Our capital allocation framework remains unchanged. We have committed to up to EUR 6 billion of share buyback through fiscal year 2028. The first tranche, with a maximum volume of EUR 2 billion, started on March 4. Progress on the share buyback is published weekly on our Investor Relations website. Just as today, we just published the latest results. Now let's briefly discuss seasonality across our business areas. In Gas Services, order intake for fiscal year 2026 is expected to be above fiscal year 2025 with a stronger first half. As mentioned earlier, we caution against annualizing the exceptionally strong Q1 order intake. It is also important to remember that strong order intake is typically paired with down payments, which support free cash flow as we saw in fiscal year 2025. In terms of profitability in Gas Services, the historical pattern remains unchanged. Profitability is typically stronger in the first half of the year, reflecting the service season and the new units to service mix. This will still be the case in fiscal year 2026, although the effect will be less pronounced as better margin new unit business begins to convert through the P&L. For Grid Technologies, order intake in fiscal year 2026 should be at or slightly above fiscal year 2025, reflecting the strong market environment shown at the Capital Market Day. However, due to the lumpiness of large HVDC orders and projects, individual quarters may deviate from the average. Underlying profit margin in groups are expected to be relatively stable across the quarters with limited seasonality in line with previous years. Please remember that the last year's second quarter profitability was elevated by a positive one-off item of around EUR 100 million. For transformation of industry, quarterly profit margins are expected to be relatively stable across the year, again, in line with historical patterns. For Siemens Gamesa, as mentioned earlier, we expect a negative first half, a positive second half and full year breakeven. Finally, due to the timing shift of some offshore auctions, offshore order intake in fiscal year 2026 is expected to be relatively muted with some projects shifting into the next fiscal year. CapEx for fiscal year '26 remains around EUR 2.5 billion. Given that we spent only EUR 347 million in Q1, CapEx will increase significantly over the remaining 3 quarters. Additional Q2 updates, which finally we will provide a brief comment on the foreign exchange. As we guide on comparable revenue growth, excluding currency translation and portfolio effects, we continue to see materially higher comparable growth and nominal growth. This is mainly driven by U.S. dollar to euro volatility, specifically the devaluation of the U.S. dollar. As a result, for the second quarter, we expect comparable revenue growth to be around 600 basis points higher than nominal growth at group level compared with 460 basis points in Q1. With that, we will conclude today's call. Thank you very much for your participation and for continued engagement. As a final reminder, our results will be published at 07:00 a.m. CEST on Tuesday, May 12, with the webcast at 10:30 a.m. CEST, and our silent period begins tomorrow on March 31. With Easter approaching, we wish you a relaxing Easter break. Thank you, and bye-bye.

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded, and you may disconnect. Thank you for joining, and have a pleasant day. Goodbye.