Sigma Lithium Corporation (SGML) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
December 6, 2022
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Ana Cabral Gardner
executiveGood morning, everyone. I'm delighted to be joined here by my Co-CEO, Calvyn Gardner; and by our Chief Operating Officer, Brian Talbot. The 3 of us are going to take you through the details of 2 outstanding expansion and financing milestones that Sigma has reached this month. Firstly, by increasing the mineral reserves by 63%, tripling the NPV to $15 billion and concomitantly securing $100 million of senior debt financing in order to fully fund all that work, including the project expansion into Phase 2 entry potentially tripling our production. So without further ado, I'm just going to go through the highlights of our recent milestones. Essentially, Sigma has announced positive economic results of the study to potentially triple integrated production of this battery grade sustainable lithium concentrate that we are planning to initiate production early this year. We're tripling from 270 tonnes per year of material to 36 -- which is equivalent to 36,000 tonnes per year of LCE into 768,000 tonnes per year of LCE, which is equivalent to 104,000 tonnes per year of LCE. So here is the detail. So from 270 of battery grade lithium concentrate, whose price in the market today is around $8,000 a tonne to 766,000 tonnes per year of lithium concentrate whose market price today is around $8,000 a tonne. That puts us in a completely different category in terms of scale, make potentially positioning the company as one of the world's largest integrated lithium producers once we initiate production within a short month or so. This combination of Phase 2 and 3 production expansion potentially will triple the net present value of this company to USD 215 billion. More importantly, we secured and signed the definitive documents, so it's done, of a debt facility with Synergy Capital to fund all of the expansion. Synergy Capital, for those of you who may not know them, they are based in the United Arab Emirates, they being one of the early investors at Sigma and they are flexible private equity/hedge funds. So they have access to debt and equity capital to potentially support Sigma in all its future endeavors. This facility, assuming we don't reach cash flow before August 2023 is going to keep us going, production expansion, commissioning, all the work that needs to be done until August 2023. However, we do plan to achieve cash flow way sooner than August 2023. The funding also includes, as I mentioned earlier, all the ordering of long lead items that we're planning to initiate doing in February, and Brian will get into details of that as soon as we agree on a final processing route for Phase 2 and 3, which are going to be the same as Phase 1 with a few tweaks. And I think lastly, the mineral reserve of the company has been increased by 63% to 54.8 million tonnes, easily supporting this triple yield operation. What's more important than that is that we've been able to increase the reserve, proven and probable 2P reserve without sacrificing grade, which means quality. So we have maintained 1.44% lithium oxide grade even in the expansion, which again demonstrates that Sigma has been growing, but staying high-quality as it does so. And that is not a coincidence. This is the result of deliberate work by Calvyn and Brian in selecting out of our 9 deposits, which of those are prioritized for production. The following page shows a bit more of the investment highlights of the company, which again has another hallmark of ours, which essentially is to execute all of that while remaining a global leader in sustainable production. In other words, we're being top leader in setting very, very high bars and high standards for social and environmental sustainability across battery materials because we do believe and we've demonstrated that we're putting our capital behind it, that the supply chain, the value chain, upstream, midstream and downstream need to be produced, need to deliver materials that have the same ethos of the car because this is what our ultimate client, the consumer of the car, expects a lot industry. And we've been thought-leaders on that front. So going back to scale, in becoming one of the world's largest lithium production, we would -- with these studies and these increases, we would be potentially reaching this run rate production of 766,000 tonnes of lithium concentrate as early as early 2024. Remember, we start now in the first quarter at 270,000 tonnes of lithium concentrate. So what does that mean in terms of the reserve increase? That at the current rate, we could have a 20-year project. At the triple rate, at this increased rate, we could be at 13 years. So we maintained project life for now. It's bound to increase soon as we continue to work on expansion. Again, without being repetitive, we've been doing this, maintaining the high purity of the output of the lithium concentrate, which is a result of the high grade of the ore we work with to transform, to add value to in our Greentech processing plant. And all this incremental growth is able to maintain these high grades. What does that mean exactly? It means that low alkaline, low sodium and potassium, which are impediments to ultimate purity at the lithium hydroxide level, low iron, low mica. Nevertheless -- nonetheless actually, regardless of the prices being quite high these days, we also have focused on staying at the low end of the cost curve, which means that Sigma is a sustainable company throughout cycles. In other words, by the end of the decade, when we think the prices could be potentially normalizing again to 20,000 tonnes-ish for the chemicals, we will continue to deliver excess returns to our investors. Why? Because our all -- average all-in sustaining cost delivered inclusive of transportation, delivered at any Asian port is $523 per tonne. So when you average it all out, it means that we have an average net earnings -- net earnings meaning net profit of $2.7 billion starting on year 2. That's a significant amount of earnings, which in turn allows us to be more and more environmentally and socially sustainable, innovating, if you will, in some of these practices. As we reiterated, the debt fully funds us for the product expansion, gives us a strong balance sheet and keeps us up into August 2023. All in, firing all cylinders, full fit on acceleration with expansion plans, the lot, irrespectively of us generating $1 of revenues anytime soon, which is not the case. We do expect to potentially initiate run-rate production on and around April 2023 as Brian and Calvyn will further expand. So with that, we go to the next page, capital structure, and I'll go through that very quickly. Following page. This is quickly the capital structure as we had before. And you can see on the left now, as we've been reiterating, that we do have $162 million of sources in order to fund approximately $154 million of usage, which include pretty much everything that we do plan to achieve for Phase 1 and for Phase 2. So we're extremely well-funded, if you will, to achieve our financing goals and our milestones for both phases. Here, another important element is that there is a maturity of 4 years and is a drawdown facility, $60 million of which are available, done, ready to be drawn and disbursed this year in 2022. So we are able to accelerate our plans towards expanding production, towards tripling production through this drawdown, and Brian will talk a bit more about that. The interest rates by market is 12-month Bloomberg rate, plus 6.95%. So these are very, very good interest rates considering what's happening to interest rates nowadays. So the next page, I'll hand it over to Calvyn.
Calvyn Gardner
executiveSo here, really -- Good morning, everybody. So here, we're really just showing the economics. And obviously, now the -- what is really allowing Phase 2 and Phase 3 is the increase in reserves. So historically, we had 33 million tonnes of reserve, as we well know at 1.43%. And now we've been able to increase that by 21 million tonnes to have a 54 million tonne reserve, which really is obviously the springboard to the expansion that we are now discussing. And that's, obviously, in terms of NPV, has the similar effect of taking it from a $5 billion NPV to a $15 billion NPV. And if it only was Phase 2, it would have been Phase 2 and $7.3 billion. So the whole jump for going Phase 1, 2 and 3 has a proportional 3x essentially increase in NPV. What does it mean in terms of production? Essentially 270,000 tonnes Phase 1 and the total expansion increasing by 2.8x to 276,000 with 2 and 3 alone, bringing in close on 500,000 tonnes. Brian will talk a little bit more about Phase 2 and 3, but it's what we call a dual plant. So it's similar to Plant 1, except with actually running deal lines. And then the free cash flow, as one would expect increasing at 3x similar to the NPV from $0.6 billion to $1.8 billion. So next slide. So I'll let Brian come and talk about the production expansion. Brian, would you like to take over from here. So next slide, Luisa or James? Hello, Brian?
Ana Cabral Gardner
executiveHe is mute.
Brian Talbot
executiveSorry, apologies. Good afternoon, and thank you, Calvyn, for the introduction. Yes, just a -- so this is a bit of an overview to give a bit of a lay of the land of how the Phase 1 and Phase 2 and now Phase 2 and 3 would integrate together. And a couple of key takeaways just to walk everybody through it. The items in green, the existing ramped, the power station, the current plant infrastructure, crushing circuit and concentrate as the existing Xuxa Stage 1 plant. And there are a couple of really nice features of those plants that we've built in an original one that allow us great leverage for Phase 2 and 3. The first part of that is that the power station that was designed has sufficient capacity for both the Stage 2 and 3 plants, and that's a really nice accelerating point for us to be able to leverage going forward. So we don't have to have more engagement with the power supply companies and we can purchase power quite readily through this existing facility. The rest of the plant infrastructure -- the plant infrastructure is sufficient. A couple of minor tweaks that need to be added. We need a little bit more water supply from the river, mostly associated with mining, actually not associated with the process plant, but we do need some more water infrastructure. So the big green tank in the bottom middle of the screen, that needs a little bit more water supply that largely speaking stays the same. From a real estate point of view, the green area to the left and the sort of the vegetated area slightly further left of that is the area earmarked for the expansion. And by leveraging a condensed Phase 2 and 3 together, we're obviously not going to be double the size of the plant. We're going to be maybe 1.3 or 1.4x the size. So a little bit of the vegetation taken up where the Stage 2 was, a little bit bigger than the Stage 2 that's depicted here, but not all the way through the vegetation here on the side. The other really nice feature of combining 2 and 3 together is that the crushing circuit needs only a few additional pieces of equipment to give us the capacity. And so the crushing footprint doesn't change substantially and that allows us also to build the plant quite a lot faster because the crushing circuit is not double the size. So from a construction point of view, the benefits of building a plant together is that we don't double the amount of conveyor belts and we do not double the amount of construction steel. And those are 2 items that take a fair amount of time to install on-site. So by actually not doubling them, we are able to get to a completed plant slightly longer than a single train, but a lot shorter than 2 separate trains in terms of where we stand. So that's a bit of a lay of the land of the expansion of the project and how it interfaces with the existing infrastructure. I think we can go to the next slide. So this is a ramp-up forecast of how the different pits interact as we ramp up. And you'll notice this is normalized. It depicts a year 1 through to year 13. It is a ramp-up portion is associated with us, which we'll talk about later. And as you can see, we ramp up pretty aggressively from year 1 to year 2. And this we believe is possible due to a few reasons. One, as I said, a shorter construction period of time associated with the duplication of the plant. Secondly, 3 pits supplying the material, that gives us a little bit of flexibility in terms of mining capacity and associated material for the plants. And the third is that we are going to be leveraging equipment that is the same as what we're putting into the first phase 1 so that from a commissioning risk point of view, we will have the necessary spares on-site to allow us to mitigate some of the challenges we face in that. And the color-coding there for everybody is effectively the 3 source materials, Xuxa, Barreiro and NDC or as we call it, Phase 1, 2 and 3 of the mine in terms of where we stand. So -- and what happens after year 8, obviously, with Xuxa coming offline, we will have some spare capacity and we do fully expect to have that capacity picked up with some of our exploration activities at the moment. So we don't expect to really see this diminishing production between years 8 and 9 as we don't have that on the book. So this is the status quos that stands today.
Ana Cabral Gardner
executiveAnd complementing -- and yes, complementing what Brian saying, you can see how Calvyn and Brian have optimized our mineral reserves for optimum efficiency, speed and performance. So this is a speedboat optimized for efficiency and performance. In other words, the bringing forth triple capacity starting in '24 and initiating production this year allows Sigma and its shareholders to fully benefit from the current excess returns in the market resulting from this hiatus in investments that took place between 2018 and 2020 when we kept on working. So ultimately, by frontloading, this actually looks like the forecasting prices for most houses, experts and what have you, we are going to be delivering the maximum possible amount of production with the existing mineral reserves that have been just unlocked in this study.
Calvyn Gardner
executiveThank you, Ana. I think we go to the next slide.
Ana Cabral Gardner
executiveSo this is just -- yes, just a quick slide. It's just again putting all of this in numbers. What does it mean for a company to be optimized by the folks here, by the 2 operating technical leads for maximum performance and efficiency and speed? It means that we are going to be -- we're planning to be delivering $1 billion of free cash flow starting -- annualized starting as early at the end of the first quarter this year. And that's just with Phase 1, 270,000 tonnes annual of lithium concentrate high-purity. And then once we triple the following year for which, again, we're fully funded and we're ready to go, with this amount of average life of mine free cash flow doubled to $1.8 billion. If you think about peak, if we don't average because the average has this profile, during that peak period, the free cash flow generation could be up to $3 billion. You can do your own math and get to the same conclusion. So ultimately, here, we can achieve all of that. And what's the efficiency? The efficiency is that the CapEx is attainable, easily financeable in non-diluted form for shareholders, hence, the $100 million in debt. So we were able to, with maximum speed and maximum efficiency, just optimize Sigma for maximum performance during this period of excess returns to be achieved. And on that regard, the next milestone, the upcoming catalysts are this Phase 4 resource update that Brian, my partner here has been discussing. They've been working full out their 5 drills at Phase 4 and we're planning to, before Christmas, announce the Phase 4 resource update. We are going to be initiating commissioning by year-end and we're going to enter into quite a lot of detail on that and we're planning to initiate production in April. So with that, next page, without further reviews, hand it over to the operating team. Again, this is just a quick page. It just shows how little net present value is sensitive to discount rates and we can run it at from 8 to 14, pick a number, run a rate, it's still in the double-digits, which means no matter what, we went from $5.1 billion of net present value where we were with 2 phases and rather outdated prices of $2,000 a tonne of lithium concentrate towards a more reflective reality of the scale of the company and the market into the double-digits of NPV. Same happens to sensitivity to listing prices. And that's where NPV becomes more sensitive. At average prices that we're using here, we achieved these levels of NPV that we discussed. If we were to put current prices, I mean, the NPV will be skyrocketed. So here, what we've done is we use an average on a curve following benchmark minerals curve of production. So this is just an illustration of sensitivity that we wanted to share with you, which means the numbers are what they are, very -- let's say, very little tweaky year in terms of sensitivity. It's just a sheer scale increase of the company in terms of production that drives this increased net present value. Following page. Again, I'm not going to spend that much time on it, but we actually published this work, and so I can actually share that with you. Let's go all the way to the bottom, right? The amount of earnings, after-tax earnings generated by the company puts the net profit, the after-tax earnings margin in 79% on the production of the first annualized year starting year-to-year, right? And then on 2 to 8 years average, it still stays well above 75%, 76%. And then we still maintain very high thresholds of net profit margins, which again shows how Sigma was built for efficiency and optimization by the technical teams and the leadership. The next -- and we show sort of a sale price here at $2,000 a tonne of lithium concentrate, which is pretty consensus at this point and it's not an aggressive tailwind pricing at all. So it's really the tripling in production, the ability to be there to deliver the material during this environment of excess returns that are taking place in the next 2, 3, maybe 4 years, that actually puts us in this very enviable position. The next page, Calvyn.
Calvyn Gardner
executiveSorry, guys, just I was on mute there. So what have we done to unlock this value? So Phase 3 and projects that we've -- we increased the reserves that we spoke about by 21 million tonnes. We have a measured and indicated resource 23 million tonnes and inferred resource there of 3.5 million tonnes. So essentially, our Phase 3 project. And then what we announced in -- or what will be announced in December '22 are the results of the DMS test-work, the geotechnical drilling that we've done, the hybrid geology and groundwater measurements, which we've included, the 10 piezometers in the field and obviously the details that go with that. And then Phase 2 and 3 DMS test-work has been complete as well as Phase 2 geotechnical work and Phase 3 geotechnical survey was also completed. The piezometers are in on Phase 3 and that, as we know, have made a release of our first levels -- first stage work in terms of the feasibility of Phase 3 as well. So all in all, now this is moving forward. And then in construction of the earthworks will start next year depending how we -- depending straight after the rainy season, which should be towards the backend of Q1, where we will start then earthworks for the combined Phase 2 and 3 as shown by Brian in the green area in the diagram. So next slide. So the construction timetable, we did speak about it last week, but Brian can just quickly update it. Can we move to the next slide, Brian?
Brian Talbot
executiveJust to keep this quite quick and concise. We obviously had a very exciting period. Civil construction from a mechanical point of view is complete. There's some peripheral stuff that's on the go, but civil is finished. Mechanical erection of the crushing circuit is very close to completion and that commissioning of that circuit is planned to start in the next week. So we are progressing really well on that side of things and the DMS, so it would likewise is going well. All our long lead items are either in-country or on the sea. So we have no delays reflecting that and the construction is tracking as per our schedule. So a really exciting time and we've got lots of people on-site working very hard towards these goals as we speak.
Calvyn Gardner
executiveSo just a comment on, Brian, so it's not missed. The whole crushing circuit will be starting commissioning next week. So it's a big, big milestone for Sigma. It's a large crushing process, you know. And obviously, we're looking forward to that. Thanks, Brian.
Brian Talbot
executiveThanks, Calvyn. And on the next slide, just a quick update on mining. Again, very nice to report that both the north and the south pits are now open. Pre-stripping is tracking really well. We have produced our first ore from the weathered zone. So we know it's the weathered zone in [indiscernible] stockpiled separately and we are moving very quickly into competent material in both the south and the north pits. And very exciting from a cost point of view, the cost of mining in the first 5 months of production are within our budget. So no surprises in drill and blast, load and haul or digging capacities or utilization of fleet as well as that has been achieved through our first wet month. So we're starting to see a really good picture that the estimates we had and the budget we had, we are able to fulfill those. So from a risk point of view, another milestone achieved and that we are confident about our mining costs and that's a pretty big event for us as well. So mining working well. Future is really just the ramping up of that into production in sequence with the plant in quarter 1 of next year.
Calvyn Gardner
executiveJust a small point here on that point as well from Brian. Brian mentioned there that we mined and obviously, partially weathered, but we are a bit spoiled here, right? So that partially measured weathered material is actually 1.4% lithium. It's just that we have such high grades, okay, that we can call that partially weathered because it goes up to 1.7% as most of you know on this call. So yes, we have got 1.4% partially weathered material, but we're not too unhappy about it. Thanks, Brian.
Brian Talbot
executiveThanks, Calvyn. Okay. Next slide. So this is just a commissioning schedule. Obviously, water pumps are on track for operation and testing now in December. But really the big milestone is the crusher. We're starting crushing commissioning in, as I said, in the next week, and that's a really big milestone for us. We'll be powering up the DMS substations in early January and that will be followed by the start of DMS commissioning in February. And the DMS commissioning will take a little longer than the crushing commissioning. So we only expect to be operational on the DMS towards the end of March. And towards the end of March and early in April, we will start to process our first ore through the DMS. We expect they've done the crusher before that, but the DMS plant will be running in April. And we'll be going through a well-constructed ramp-up to take us to steady-state production in and around July, August of 2023, we'll be at -- we envisage being at full production in terms of utilization, run rates and recovery.
Calvyn Gardner
executiveOkay. So on this -- and I've shown this slide a few times and I think -- but it's important and it's something that we continue to do now for Phase 2 and Phase 3 as well, similar to what we've done in Phase 1. And that's really to go through what we call the 5 execution steps, the feasibility of basic engineering; the detailed engineering; and then come with a detailed project plan; and obviously a tight level of FL3 accuracy for CapEx. And a lot of times, a lot of those last 3 steps are skipped. And yes, it takes more time. And yes, it takes more CapEx to do these things. But then in terms of the construction, you are well-placed to, first of all, have a smooth construction process with a solid execution plan. And then obviously the big issue is not a blowout in your CapEx so that your CapEx is solid going into the construction. It's something we've seen here going into this construction, be it that there has been -- we had COVID going through it and be it that it was wars in Ukraine and all sorts of other issues and hyperinflation in various parts of the world and shortages and things like that. But still, we've had no major blowout. So I think having this sort of -- having this sort of discipline has actually paid off for Sigma. Okay. Brian, you want to continue with this?
Brian Talbot
executiveYes. Let's carry on. So here, crushing circuits. And again, I'm really pleased to say that's an old photo, things are moving very fast on-site. So that's probably about 2 weeks old and there's been lots of progress since then. So really moving well in the crushing circuit. Concrete works are 1% to go. That's about right where we are, a few little things to tidy up. Steel reinforcement again, that's sort of at 99.9% at the moment of this last one reported there. Structural steel assemblies on track. And since this event, it's probably gone up, the main crush oven was completed yesterday, so progressing really well on that side of things. So that will go well. And today will be the last day of conveyor belt assembly. So that number will have meet up substantially since this reporting period. So conveyor belt seem to be moving really well. And that obviously plate work and a few mechanical assembly items, which could be handled in commissioning. So crusher circuit at this stage is really close to being completed. And as I said, commissioning is expected to start in the next week. Next slide. DMS circuit. Likewise, Calvyn, it's great to see how quickly the photos are moving in the presentation. So commenting really well. I guess the important stuff here is from a supply point of view, we will be today at about 99% of structural steel to site from our structural steel supplier, and plate work is continuing to be delivered as we need it for the erection. So the DMS circuit is progressing well. From an electrical perspective, the substations and the transformers have all been on-site for the last 2 weeks. So that work will start to progress as well now. So DMS circuit is on the schedule, progressing well and there's a fair amount of work ahead of us between now and the end of January.
Calvyn Gardner
executiveYes.
Brian Talbot
executiveJust from a health and safety point of view, it's a really nice slide of one of our major contractor. This is Parex, our assembly contractor. And this is the morning daily safety meeting or as we call it, the prestart. And they'll be discussing the risks and hazards of the day and it's really a nice picture of them all congregated for that in the morning. Next slide. This is an aerial photograph of the north pit. On the left-hand side in gray is the pit itself. On the right-hand side in gray is the waste stockpile. And if you look really carefully on the right-hand side of the pit, in sort of a [indiscernible] before the trees, that is the exposed pegmatite body that's exposed there. The other feature to note here is that the water collection of the waste dam just worked really well through our first heavy rains. They are those dams, dots of dam in the middle of the screen. And those dams work really well at ensuring that the runoff and the soil is not transported into the river below. That's the north pit. Let's move on. I think, further growth potential. Next slide. So this is just as a bit of [indiscernible], maybe, Calvyn, this has really been something you've driven real hard. Do you want to just talk about the -- in future areas? Calvyn, you are on mute.
Calvyn Gardner
executiveTalking to myself here. Sorry about that. So guys, just to recall, we have 4 areas, as you can see on the left, 18,000 hectares. And right now the focus is on Grota do Cirilo, the 1 sector obviously we are working in terms of our exploration program in other areas, but right now the focus is on -- has been on Grota do Cirilo. And to remind, obviously, we've been working -- we have 9 former mines. We have 13 priority ones, as we call and currently essentially working on 4 of those and being Phase 1, 2, 3 and 4. And those are going well. We have 6 drills flat-out on Phase 4. And we've done over 50,000 meters of drilling current -- actually, at the moment, totally for the current project, over 70,000 meters of drilling. And just at Phase 4 alone, we're at about 20,000 tonnes -- 20,000 meters. Phase 4 is looking exciting. I don't want to say too much more of that. And we will plan to have a resource update on Phase 4 by the end of December, we should have our first numbers out of Phase 4. So that is continuing. And you can see these are the yellow dots that we're really talking about in terms of priorities, and you can see Xuxa, the line. But there is obviously other work happening continually in terms of this. And the idea is to continue building the resource. I think I've been a stuck record on this event. But as we are opening up mines, Phase 2 and 3 plants, we are bringing in other resources and we'll continue to do so. So we already have eyes on Phase 5, 6 and 7, which all are going to add to the life of mine. And for now obviously, we will make some report on Phase 4, as I said, before the year-end. So next slide. So here is essentially Phase 2 and Phase 3. Well, on the left, you can see essentially the difference now. So this is Xuxa, the yellow line to the top. And here to the bottom is the main cluster that those yellow dots of Barreiro and Nezin Xicão, Phase 4 is down there as well. And on the right, you're essentially looking at the Phase 3 pit and Barreiro Phase 2, which is basically a stone's throw away. This is a whole network of pigment types sitting here and we really are targeting the big ones. Just on Phase 3 to add, it is actually open to the south. Although it's now not in this resource, we will be drilling there in the New Year and continue to expand this resource itself. It runs much like Xuxa across the river, and we've tracked it again for about 400 meters south of the river. So we will be drilling there as well and this resource will expand. And obviously, as I mentioned, Phase 4, which is a little north of this slide that you see here, it's about a kilometer to the north and that is that as I said, we've been have 6 drills on that. And currently, over 20,000 meters of drilling has been involved with that. Okay. Next slide. All right. So here, we're giving you some idea now, which we did make an announcement of Phase 4. So this deposit is open in all directions. It's open to the north, southeast and west. It's got a lot thicker as we've gone north. So you can see some of -- you look to the numbers to the right where we have intersections of 80 meters thick at pretty decent grades of 1.6%. So it's an exciting deposit from a Sigma viewpoint, obviously, being very large and high-grade as we go north. And in fact, we think why we have the different colors here, we think it's 3 deposits in 1 where these things are all overlying. What is more exciting really going to the east, where it's totally open, so we will be drilling out to the east. So right now we're stepping out to the north and we will start drilling out to the east. And why are we focusing up so much here? Because obviously of these very high grades and very thick deposits. These are the thickest intersections we've had at Sigma. So obviously, this for us has been a very important discovery. And as I said, we will put out the first resource estimate in December. However, we will not stop drilling. And I expect to put out a second resource estimate as we step out now. Especially to the east and to the north, we'll put out the second one as well. But just to give the market a feel of where we are by the end of December, I think, will be important. So very important. And this will fill in on those back years in terms of that cash flow model where you had 8 to 13 showing that Brian said a lower volume of material, this material clearly will be part of that material will fill that gap. Okay. Next slide. And that said, I think, conclusions. Thank you. So Ana, back over to you.
Ana Cabral Gardner
executiveYes. Thank you. Thank you, guys. The next page. Well, it's again, the crowning of all that work is that we were able to achieve this without any sacrifice on environmental and social fronts. In fact, quite the opposite. We have been innovating in leading the front on 2 key issues such as circular economy, circularity. I mean, as an example, the dry stack tailings that we're going to be producing, right now at the beginning of the year, they have tremendous value for ancillary industries. So they become the feedstock for other industries. And as a result, from the get-go, we're going to be able to be fully circuit, which means 0 tailings from the plant will remain on-site. The dry stack tailings, as they do not have any chemicals, because we chose the DMS technology, they do carry a portion of the lithium we do not recover, quartz and sales part, they are quite valuable, they'll be shipped with the project. So that became our keynote speech at COP, at Investments COP, where we talked about the role of integrant of companies in the battery supply chain to do its bid and make the entire supply chain for electric vehicles more sustainable as a whole. Another initiative we announced at COP in Egypt in Sharm el-Sheikh was the initiative of what we call a Zero Draft, as we show on the slide. In other words, as we are in a region plagued by drought like most lithium producing regions, what we are doing is we're creating climate mitigation mechanisms to help small-scale farmers. The neighbors, the farmers next door, we're basically doing subsistence agriculture. They suffer quite tremendously with the consequence of climate change, which results in extended periods of drought. So what we're doing, we're building this water-capture, rainwater-capture systems, which look a bit like what you've got over that as the beginning of a construction is sort of these pools dug on the ground that capture the water, the rainwater during what we call the monsoon period that is quite intensive, as Calvyn and Brian were mentioning, and that would stay there for usage during the dry season. We're doing 2,000 of them. We're literally doing these systems throughout the entire, what we call extended area of the project, which encompass the 2 municipalities full, goes way, way beyond our borders. But the purpose of that is to supply or to provide to the small-scale agriculture -- subsistence agricultural farmer and cattle subsistence farmers of the region, a net, a welfare net, a way to be lifted together with Sigma. In other words, as we lift the company towards a producing entity with the kinds of cash flow numbers we demonstrated here, what we're doing, we're looking an entire community alongside us. And for the small-scale agricultural farmers, which are the core of that economy, this is critical. It's a critical climate mitigation action. In the previous page, we're doing the same thing for the women. And again, in association with Mulheres do Brasil, which is a leading women's organization that I helped found, where we're expanding the microcredit program into what we call the 10,000 women. So we borrow that from a very famous bank, and we're planning to lift 10,000 women in the region. Now think about scale, there's about 60,000 people living in the region, and we're opening 10,000 lines of microcredit to all women that aim to be what we call owners of themselves. It's called Dona de Mim. What does that mean really? Most of these single mother, single woman households, were living below poverty levels and BRL 90 a month, which is like $50 a month. They were stalling. We -- the goal is to lift them through microcredit with about $400. And you really lift a woman with that. The example is Bangladesh Grameen Bank and they elevate themselves to what we call minimum wage levels, which in Brazil when BRL 900 a month, so you go from BRL 90 a month to BRL 900 a month and you're being lifted out of poverty. And that's what this program of 10,000 women will do. So far, we've deployed already 730 lines for female entrepreneurs, which again has had substantial impact. It's tracked and monitored together with a not-for-profit called Dona de Mim, which is in partnership with Mulheres do Brasil, which is the largest civil organization of all kinds in Brazil. It happens to be of all women. There's a 120,000 registered members and I'm a co-founder of it. So it's extremely successful in our goals of lifting that region. Next page, the next page. Calvyn, do you want to talk about homecoming? It's something that you're very keen on.
Calvyn Gardner
executiveYes. So the homecoming program essentially started about the need to bring back skills to the area. And obviously, we're very much -- well, Sigma really would like to try and bring people that are local to this area into the workforce. And one of the big issues here is the lack of actual technical skills. And those that had technical skills or studied elsewhere actually ended up obviously because of the lack of opportunity working elsewhere. And we've been able to bring back numerous technical people from all areas, from metallurgy, geology, engineering, essentially -- administration, obviously, but all of these areas, we've been able to bring back people to the region. And in many cases, we've had people who actually -- who were the husbands were actually working away and that families were staying here and they would only come home once every 6 months or at best once every 3 months and were sending money home. And obviously, that now has substantially changed the lives of those people. So we continue to do this by advertising on sort of state radio and national radio and local radio and obviously, word-of-mouth. And it's been a very successful program. And so far, for example, our mining force and operators, 70% of those operators have been able to be from the region. So it did take some further training and we did start training before we started the mine. We're 6 months of training with some of those individuals that actually hadn't had -- had skills of operation, but hadn't actually worked in mines and that has worked extremely successfully. The area of mechanical training is obviously a little bit more tricky and we have plans in that area as well. But as I said, we've been particularly successful in bringing back people in these areas as well. And it will be something, as I say, we continue. Thanks, Ana.
Ana Cabral Gardner
executiveThis is a slide that just shows what happens to Sigma and where do we see value? And as a financial sponsor, we are still here going into our seventh year. As you recall, there are 3 categories of lithium companies publicly traded. You have the next cycle producers, which are unfunded. They have projects, great projects that will be probably delivering lithium in the next cycle, meaning 2025, '26, '27 and beyond, right? And they are a separate category. Then we have what we call the near-term producers, which are funded and are in construction, which have the goal of delivering lithium in 2023, right? And then you have the producers. So where do we see ourselves? We are near-term producer. But as we continue to not just advance towards delivering the Phase 1 production, but also consolidating and fully funding our expansion, we wanted to show you directionally where we go and why we're still here. In other words, when you look at the producers, there are clearly 2 category of producers, the super majors and the junior producers. And what we see happening at Sigma potentially once we deliver Phases 2 and 3 post-2024, is that we will be elevated into super major category. Why is that? What is the super major? A super major is an integrated lithium producer that has the ability to feed and deliver its own lithium materials at that above 90,000 tonne LCE annual rate. And this is what we just demonstrated we will be capable of potentially to weigh. So we are walking in strides towards being able to help alleviate the current supply tightness of the lithium markets, but more importantly, at the low end of the cost curve. So the 3 elements that make us a super major; ability to deliver -- future ability to deliver over 90,000 tonnes LCE annually, once Phase 2 and 3 are constructed, which will be in 2024. 2, integration with the feed, so we are able to self-feed this lithium concentrate Greentech plant in order to achieve those levels of production. And then 3, we are able to do so while remaining at the low end of the supply cost curve, providing a relief to the current tight lithium market, a relief of sorts given the demand continues to expand, but that's a completely separate conversation. So this is kind of where we see ourselves and this is our own sort of investment committee rationale because, again, we are a financial sponsor. Following page, it's basically our thank you. And all of us, you can take the presentation now and we can all go to camera. So we really wanted to take this opportunity to thank you for the incredible support that you have provided us with throughout this past year while we constructed this plant. I mean, it's been a year when we raised $140 million in equity from you in order to deliver what we just did. So the purpose of this call was to thank you and to basically demonstrate that we have honored your trust throughout the year and we're here working full-on, 24/7, Brian and Calvyn calling us from site, living on-site, we're going to deliver more as we are going to still this year discuss the expansion of the Phase 4 and what Phase 4 represents for that scale, for that proposition of Sigma eventually becoming a super major. So I want to thank you, and I'm followed here by my both partners, Calvyn and Brian. And this is not going to be our first -- last call before Christmas yet. But I really, really want to thank you for those attending for your trust and for your support. Calvyn?
Calvyn Gardner
executiveYes, guys. Thanks for that. It's been a strong support from our investors, not we wouldn't have been here. Obviously, now we're delighted to start the commissioning of the crushing plant next week. And then obviously, the DMS, which is the heart of the plant early in -- basically powering it up in February. So I think a lot still to come, yes, but all positive. And I think the timing for Sigma is very good. And -- but again, without our investors and supporters and stakeholders, which includes the people of the region, we wouldn't be here today. So I'd like to thank everybody on this call. And as we will have another call before Christmas, it's not -- it's a bit early to wish you all happy Christmas. So I will see you before Christmas. Thank you.
Ana Cabral Gardner
executiveThank you. So we're now to take questions, and you can submit them through a Q&A on a chat. We have some time for questions. Here we go. Oh, the price forecast. What happened to price forecast since last presentation? So we have a slide, we cannot forecast our own prices. And so we need to use to publish 43-101, what we call expert outside forecaster. So there's a slide that we would like to put on the page -- on the screen, please kindly the host can do that, Gabriel or Luisa, where we show the Benchmark Minerals curve. What we have done, we have followed the Benchmark Minerals curve to the latter, which is the only thing we can do. So Benchmark Minerals updated that lithium chemical hydroxide price of -- rather significantly because it was just completely stale from the last time Benchmark Minerals updated it. As you might recall, they had lithium hydroxide for next year at 39,000 tonnes -- $39,000 a tonne. Lithium hydroxide today is $83,000 a tonne with no signs of receding in the year. So Benchmark did a thorough work, very thorough as always, looking at supply and demand and updated their price curve. So us, as 43-101 report published and we're audited by QPs and QPs prepare this, our QPs, which are the qualified professionals that sign our technical reports have taken the prices straight out of the Benchmark curve. So you can see what happens to the lithium concentrate price on our basis once the lithium hydroxide prices go up. As you may recall, Sigma, again, pioneered in attaching these 2, providing the auto industry, hopefully in the future with an easily hedgeable proposition as far as these 2 prices. In other words, the same way there's aluminum alumina, there's copper, copper concentrate, what we're hoping is that as lithium evolves, the pricing links up concentrate chemical. So copper, copper concentrate, so smelters and concentrators. Alumina, aluminum and then concentrate chemicals. We do believe this is commodity, these are metals. And so we're not reinventing anything. We're just pushing the industry towards a more mature, more evolved pricing mechanism, which we see in other industries. So our pricing is a percentage of the lithium hydroxide, which is shown on the bars in light green. You've got that, which is directly calculated off the Benchmark Minerals price curve. So more questions. When do we intend to give production and sales volume guide for 2023? Well, we just did, right? So let's go back to the volumes. And the price is here, right? So we got pricing over here for year 1. Again, I'm using Benchmark. I can't use market prices until I ship. But what I can say is lithium hydroxide today is $80,000 tons. And we have a percentage of that, which is 6, as you can see here. So you can calculate the prices, but I can't tell you the price into the first shipment. But the volume guidance is on the slide. Can you put the bar chart slide of the production that we have there? So the bar chart of production shows you on an annualized basis. So we have 277,000 tonnes of LCE annualized. We're planning to start this in April 2023. So you can just do the pro rata of that production. So starting in April, so minus 4 months of the year. So you divided annual number by basically a 3, right? And then you take it for -- you knock it off 4 months out of that, right? So divide by 3, take 2 portions of that. So that's our annualized production for 2023 for the updating of your model. Then another question is the utilization rate in 2023 to 2025. We will not be able to answer that question, not because we don't know, just because we would need to print it on the technical reports. There's something we could talk about and not break the 43-101 rules, which is recovery ratio. And Brian, do you want to talk about recovery ratios? I think it'll be illustrated to everyone and it shows that trade-off between recovery, environmental sustainability of stand on DMS and speed and efficiency that the DMS plant represents. I think we will address a slightly different question, but it's an important one that's been coming up quite a lot from research in particular. So should we put the recovery ratio slide on the screen, Luisa, and Gab or just talk through it, Brian?
Brian Talbot
executiveI will talk through it. And I...
Ana Cabral Gardner
executiveJust talk through it. Okay. Talk through it.
Brian Talbot
executiveIt's within the report, the plant has a budgeted utilization of 85%. So that's what's budgeted in the NI 43-101 across all stage 1 or 2 and 3 combined is 85%. That's below what I consider the norm for DMS plants and what I've achieved on previous DMS plants. So it's a conservative number and we'll be ramping up to that 85% utilization on the DMS. The crushing utilization was a little lower at about 65%, but it has extra capacity to make up for that lower utilization. From a recovery point of view, we have 3 different ore bodies. Each ore body has a different recovery and this is associated with the different mineralization across each of our ore bodies. And our recovery varies by about 10% -- between 5% and 10% depending on what we do with grades. So if we take Xuxa, for example, at 5.5% grade, we get a 65% recovery. And at a 6% grade, we get about a 57% recovery. So a little bit below 57%, 58% recovery. Our target is the 5.5%. That gives us maximum recovery and the ability to maximize revenue. And then the current market, the current norm is actually dropping close to just 5%, as you can see from our competitors in production, but the norm has moved back from the 6% to 5.5% to meet market pressures. And that varies across the ore body. And then NDC, which is our lowest recovery runs at about 50% for 5.5%, 50.6% global recovery and this is due to the increased volume of non-Spodumene minerals in that. From a seed to market and a cost point of view, DMS is quicker to build, cheaper to build and substantially cheaper to operate and they also have a much lower environmental footprint. So the environmental footprint associated with the DMS plant, obviously, much smaller capacity in terms of power and energy that it consumes and more importantly, has no chemicals. So we do not interfere with the groundwater, and we do not contaminate the environment with chemicals. The trade-off for recovery is not as big as [indiscernible]. Flotation has the same limitations as DMS in terms of recovery. So there's not a substantial trade-off between the 2 for our ore body, but it has a massive difference in terms of speed to market and contaminating the environment, which are significant value-adds that Sigma believes in terms of Spodumene going forward. Hope that answers the question.
Ana Cabral Gardner
executiveYes, you did. So the next -- yes, that's great, on camera, that's great. So can you -- can the host -- would be production ramp-up bar chart on the screen because there are a few questions around it, so we will be able to cover that. Yes, this one. So the first question is related to ramp-up, right? Brian, I think that's for you. Can you achieve full capacity in 2023, in April 2023? What is your view? When does the ramp-up begin and end? It's kind of rehash the commissioning discussion we had and expanded by saying -- the question is, can you achieve full capacity in April 2023?
Brian Talbot
executiveSo let me break that into the pieces of the puzzle. There are 3 pieces of full production for us going forward. The first is the volume metric feed rate that can go into the plant. So how many tonnes an hour the plants rated are doing? Can we achieve that? That's the first number. The second number that's important, that you spoke a bit about, is utilization. So how many hours a day can we do that? And then the last number, obviously, which is very important, is recovery. Do we recover the volume of material that we need to, to meet full main plate production? So those 3 numbers in terms of how we have modeled it going forward based upon experiences, we fully expect that after 3 months from start-up, so the ramp-up process, we expect it to take about 3 months, will ramp us up from -- in terms of all of those numbers to our nameplate design in the Phase 1 plant. So we do fully expect to be operating at nameplate capacity towards the end of 2023 on future.
Ana Cabral Gardner
executiveSo the next question is, again, regarding ramp-up construction and production. Doesn't year 2 production from initiation time in April imply that Phase 2 and 3 is built throughout '23 and beginning of '24 and then ramps up in '24? The question is, is that feasible? What is the plan to start construction of Phase 2 and 3 and then ramp it up in 2024? And I'll caveat. Once that decision is made by the company, we have not made yet the decision to initiate formally the construction of Phase 2 and 3. So I need to absolutely caveat that. The construction decision has not yet made, but when it is made by the company, Brian will answer. Go ahead.
Brian Talbot
executiveThanks, Ana, for caveating, that's very important. So in our current vision for Phase 2 and 3 is in order to meet this very aggressive time line, we are going to leverage the pieces of the plant we can to go forward. And there are a few very key components. One, the primary crusher that we chose for Phase 1 was well oversized and that gives us the capacity to accelerate the crusher design and execution to get that into production quicker. The second feature is that we have started -- while not all the earthworks are done, a substantial portion of the earthworks that have already been undertaken as part of the Phase 1 plant and those earthworks would allow us to shorten the Phase 1 program substantially because earthworks took a fairly large portion of time throughout the Phase 1. The second -- and the third and last key component of why we think this is feasible is we are going to -- while it is a duplicate plant, many of the mechanical equipment supply features, which were our long lead items affecting our construction and construction program, we are going to be ordering duplicates of -- and instead of ordering 1, we will order 2. And so we have all of that information already at hand and from an engineering point of view, which will allow us to execute that procurement program well ahead of the original future program. Now how well...
Calvyn Gardner
executiveYes, just to add to that, Brian, so that there's no confusion here, the Phase 2 and 2 plant is not a double of a plant that's with double the size of equipment. It's actually the same plant would be exactly with 2 lines instead of 1. So you're not doubling the engineering, you're not doubling the size of the cycle. You're not doubling anything. So where I have 1 screen A size, I'm just going to have 2 screens. They're going to be identical. It's called a dual plant. So the engineering, it's not going to take 6 months to do the engineering. That's -- we pointed. The engineering is the same, but you've just doubled up on certain parts of the equipment. Now this saves a huge amount of time and it's the same equipment that we're ordering that we just built. So I think when Brian is talking about the speed of engineering, I think you've got to keep in mind that this is not a whole new design. It's nothing of the sort. It's exactly the same design with only instead of where I had 1 screen or 1 cycle, now I have 2. So they split. So from that viewpoint, it's a much easier construction. And that's why the plant is -- because as you see only -- it's not double the size. So I think that's a benefit now of doing Phase 1. So, sorry, Brian, continue.
Brian Talbot
executive100% correct. So that is why this aggressive time line makes sense to us. It's something we will work aggressively with. We have a team and contractors that are well across the experience here in Brazil and they're going well. That's another attribute that we will leverage into this program. So all those things considered, we believe that this is an achievable program to have us ramped up in terms of what we're looking to do.
Calvyn Gardner
executiveYes. Okay.
Ana Cabral Gardner
executiveSo the next questions are related to commercial strategies. So I'll take those. The first one is, do your expansion plans change your thought process around off-take agreements? Specifically would you look to secure customer off-take in advance? Well, it doesn't change our thought process on that regard because we do have a very large customer. In fact, we have the largest advanced battery maker in the world this customer, LGES. We are very protective of that relationship. We have a admiration for them. So we are not worried about Phase 1 at all. So when you look at the screen, the immediate sort of -- the immediate sort of focus would have been do we have customers for the first year of production? We absolutely do. Between LG, the expanded volumes, the optional volumes and the construct of that arrangement, other arrangements that we're not in a position to disclose, we are fine with year 1. Now as far as years 2 -- and that goes to another question, what's the commercial strategy going forward for stages 2 and 3? Are we signing new uptake? We might. And that's the conversation we're having internally strategically around years 2 onwards. In other words, the decision to expand production will be made in line of a decision around commercial strategy for that expanded production. There are a few tenets or what we call non-negotiables that we've always a deal to and they served this really well over the years, especially during the downturn, which is -- and I love that expression, we don't throw the baby out with the bathwater, ever. Even when market conditions were very different, we don't ever give away units in exchange for life of mine agreement, fixed price agreements, partial stake agreements, the lot. We self-funded this. We have access to quite a lot of capital throughout the private equity as we demonstrated again now. It's the fourth time we do this since IPO. We never went back to public markets ever for capital. So the point here is we fund ourselves. So with that in mind, we signed the off-take agreements that make the most commercial sense for the enterprise. And we do follow the model of certain majors, especially a major that's located in South America that I very much admire that has signed floating prices, they have signed annuals or -- and has done quite well in capturing excess returns. So we've been looking at best practices throughout the industry in copying those models, meaning we've got the blue ship clients, but we think about our unit as our baby. So in other words, these units are signed and locked up, just what appear they need to as short as possible floating to the chemical and attached to a 6 percentage of the chemical, which at the moment is on and around 9%. And again, there's no news here. We're doing what other metals have done before, copper, copper concentrate, alumina, aluminum. So it's essentially trying to set up a blueprint that makes it easier for battery-maker, with a carmaker to eventually start thinking about risk management strategies around lithium, which should behave as such and allow for risk management around prices to be drawn -- plans on risk management to be drawn by large car manufacturers as most vehicles probably will become electrified at some point later in the decade, right? So the second question around that is the outlook for the relationship with LG. Well, we really admire LG. We think they are excellent. So the spinoff into LG Energy Services gave them more speed, more efficiency. We have excellent relationship with them, the same way we have an excellent relationship with Mitsui Steel. So we're very good at maintaining these bridges and keeping this blueprint customers with us despite the multiyear agreements not being there because we don't see ourselves as a unfunded junior any longer. We're fully funded. So we should think of our units as commercially valuable and as part of a commercial strategy that doesn't hurt value, just like the major lithium producers do. So this is kind of the tenet, the principle that we've been sticking to. And we've been doing this since when we barely could afford it in 2018, '19, '20, but we did it nevertheless because we believed it was the right thing to do for our shareholders, right, as we are shareholders ourselves. The following page, except LGES, do you have any other partnership with downstream in off-take level? We can't disclose much more about it. LGES, quite -- just to put it in perspective, they're so big, but it's so big and their numbers are so big that it could take the whole year 1 if we decided to make it available to them. Because here what is not big, it's just 35,000 tonnes LCE. And any one large battery-maker could take up this entire year if we chose to make it available to them. In the context of this industry and when the industry is going, the industry is expected to consume 700,000 tonnes LCE of lithium annualized now. This is 35,000 tonnes LCE. So you would need a few segments to actually get the electrification of the next 2 to 3 years to the rates that are being forecasted around the Gigafactory construction. So we're very relaxed about production here. And again, what we said, our anxiety was around getting the supply to the market because the market is clearly -- clearly undersupplied and in supply tightness, right? So let me see if there are any questions. I think we covered quite a few questions with these answers. Here, okay, which month quarter '24 Phase 2/3 production is expected to begin? We can't say that exactly because the decision around initiating construction has not yet been made. What we can say is if you -- based on what Calvyn said, based on the fact we're building chain plants, based on the fact that engineering has been accomplished, you could add a lead time of 12 months for one, construction decision is made to the construction, assume we could make a construction decision around April, we are fully funded. So there's nothing stopping us from doing it except for the fact that we do want to get to first shipment. We do want to get cash flow, first and foremost, without getting distracted by another construction. That's key. Us having first shipment and revenues is the top single priority of this company at the moment. So this is why we haven't made a construction decision amongst other things, but this is the core reason why -- and we need to make that very clear, because in this environment revenues are key and there's excess returns to be captured and we're planning to capture them right there at the end of first quarter. So initiating construction will be distracting at this point. But once that happens, it could be around beginning of second quarter, it will give 12 months and that would be a pretty fair conservative estimates for duration of a construction, which means 12 months thereafter, we could potentially be at what we call Y2 levels here, right? The other question, is there a ceiling in the uptake agreement with LG? No. There's no cap, no ceilings, no floors, nothing. It's fully floating with the chemical. And that is, again, one of our core tenets. We do believe -- and because, again, we're in a position where we can afford it. We are one of the lowest cost producers of lithium concentrate in the world. So we don't have ceilings. We don't have floors. We're allowed to fully float with a chemical, but we capture a reasonable percentage of the chemical pricing concomitant to our value proposition given that our product is superior to what's been offered in terms of concentrate in the market. The next question, let me see here if I can read this. Okay. Hold on. The next question, pricing strategy. Why not use Spodumene-based pricing? Well, we use index pricing. Why you're using percentage of lithium hydroxide and pricing strategy? We're doing this for ease of the industry. In other words, if you think about metals, like if you're right at the end of the user metals, you're making cars, you don't want to have to worry about the intricacies and opacity, like transparency of the lithium prices as they were when we made the investment in this industry in 2016. So as a financial sponsor private equity investor, we encountered with industry that was plagued with opacity. And we would put ourselves in the shoes of a carmaker that eventually had to make 25% of these new vehicles electric, 50% of these new vehicles electric and will be consuming a substantial amount of lithium. So we put ourselves in the shoes of the CFO of a carmaker that had to buy this much lithium. They needed bases for risk management. So because we got this kind of volumes available, we decided, again, in line with our ESG, G is for transparency, right? We decided to put our money where our speech was and attach on a fully floating basis our prices to the chemical, fully floating. In other words, as your lowest cost producer, the prices can't go below our price because otherwise, the whole industry goes out of business, which is kind of what happened in 2019 and '20, right? So we are the ceiling ourselves and we're always fine. So then that's a luxury that allows us to push the industry in a direction of transparency. So which index we picked? The one and only London Metal Exchange. So who is going to be supplying that index is a matter for the London Metal Exchange to decide. But our index is one that someone can go online, tap it up, look at on the screen, doesn't require subscription. So LME prices for chemicals, that's the only available index and we attached ourselves to it on a percentage basis. So that way, we would push the industry towards copper, copper concentrate and smelting. So aluminum, alumina. So we want to get the industry there. The question was, what was our thinking? So I shared with you our thinking. We want to always put ourselves in a position of the chief financial officer, risk management officer in a large carmaker that needs to think of lithium like cobalt like other metals, that he needs to buy too and have a risk management strategy for, buy contracts on the exchange or sell contracts on the exchange in the site. And when we encountered pricing in the industry back in '16, it was nothing like it. So we wanted to eventually be in a position to change that and facilitate for and enable -- the word is enable the industry to evolve into a full-on battery material. Even cobalt is traded on LME, right? So what else? I have a feeling we answered. We covered quite a lot. So I think one thing we need to go back to, to support all the questions around modeling and ramping up. Let's go back to the bar chart of production. And I'll take you guys through it one more time with the legal caveats, right? And I'll repeat it again, the decision to build Phase 2 and 3 has not yet been made by the company. Although when we make that decision, if -- when and if we make that decision, we are fully funded to do it with the debt agreement that was just signed. So with that in mind, what we're planning to do, if you look at modeling, right, what production levels you expect for year 1? Well, you prorate 277 which are annualized. What happens in '23? You divide 277 by 3 and you take 2 of that, right? So essentially it's 2/3 of it because we will start in April and you roughly get 2/3 of this. That's kind of a good rough estimate. And then you go to the following year. The following year is dependent on the light green and the medium green, which are pending on initiating construction decision. If that happens, same logic, you take the full dark green, which is Phase 1 and then you take that light medium green, and you prorate the same way. In other words, you take 2/3 of it. And you keep going that way throughout the rest of the period because the first 2 years are slightly more challenging because we have the initiation of production and the construction happening in April, which is month 4 of a 12-month period, so hence 2/3, right? So hopefully that kind of help folks to model it. And the pricing, we're using Benchmark pricing, but I indicated the percentage of the lithium hydroxide pricing that we expect to achieve once we reach first shipment. And again, we expect we can know because we won't know, we don't have a crystal ball, right, but we expect that to stay. We go to LME and we will ascertain the prices, then we will apply our fixed 9% to it and that's our per shipment price essentially. So hopefully, I clarified most of this. Oh, there's another question, oh, realizing sales on FOB forward basis. That will depend on a client, but it won't make a difference, right? Because it's about shipping logistics, who handles it. So we're priced at CIF. If logistics is about them using their own vessels and doing their own logistics, we can adjust for China -- what we call to-China, to-Asia, right, ports, which is currently at $120 all-in, meaning we -- well, actually, no, it will be less than that because it's $80. It's $40 to port, and $80 backfilling to Asia. So we'll take $80 down from the CIF prices. At this level, it just becomes rounding here, right? And then -- so I answered that question. And then another point, the strategy for refining. Well, we do not have a strategy for refining. We have no plans of entering refining at the moment. We are not chemical specialists. What we're now focused on is to increase this incredibly value-added lithium concentrate we deliver. Again, we're thinking ore. That's value that a certain amount and we're multiplying that by multiple access to 4 digits of a price, right, $7,000, $8,000 a tonne and creating an enormous amount of value in a region that was plagued by destitution. And we're doing that at a major scale, at a super major scale. So that's our focus for the next 2 years is to deliver production Phase 1; to build a triple Phase 2 and 3; and have that body of concentrate to feed. Then maybe -- maybe look into downstream, we call intermediates, meaning, we've always discussed here that if we were to go into chemicals further in '25 and ahead and beyond, we are now building the feed for it because we're going to have 766,000 tonnes of the ultra-high-purity concentrate here that could eventually see an intermediate chemical lithium sulfate plants, for example, green. Why green? Natural gas is abundant in Brazil with a pre-salt and inexpensive and renewables are abundant and inexpensive. So we could refine this pre-chemical concentrate, as we call it, into lithium intermediates, maintaining a very low level of carbon -- very low level of carbon which we do believe could be a tremendous competitive advantage once the supply chain is reorganized in Europe and North America around the downstream for further chemical refining. So that's another question. And I think, folks, we're coming to the end of this, we answered I think most -- all of the questions, if not most of them. And we are very, very grateful for you participating and you are submitting your questions and you being here for us throughout all these years. I mean, it's being 6 years, is going to 7 years and we are continuing to deliver concomitantly to you. So look forward to seeing you again shortly before Christmas.
Calvyn Gardner
executiveThanks, guys, and good afternoon. Thanks.
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