Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

All right. Hello, and welcome, everyone. I'm Cameron Mansson-Perrone, Morgan Stanley Music, Live Event analyst. Before we get started, I want to note that important disclosures, including my personal holdings disclosures and Morgan Stanley disclosures, all appear as a handout available in the registration area and on the Morgan Stanley public website. With that, I want to welcome back Jennifer Witz, Chief Executive Officer of Sirius XM. Jennifer, thanks for joining us.

Thank you, Cameron. Good to be here again.

Let's start at the industry level. As you survey the music audio landscape, what are the big trends that you're observing today? And how are you positioning Sirius to take advantage of this trend?

Yes. Audio is having an incredible moment. And I think part of that is just the massive change in technology, obviously, rise of AI, just proliferation of media content in general and rise of social media. Consumers are looking for something that fundamentally provides real human connection and it's hard to pinpoint very specific things, but we've been doing this for 20 years, right, providing really special experiences for our subscribers on the Sirius XM side of the business. And we just keep providing these really unique content opportunities. So we have this 2 channel now with Alex Cooper from Call Her Daddy. And she was in the L.A. Studios earlier this week doing her live call-in show. John Mayer is there, and she happened to run into him in the hall and said, "Come on air." And so they had this whole conversation play out. There is no one else that can do that, and we just -- we have great relationships with talent. I'm really excited about this moment in time and how that will actually -- will be able to capitalize on that. So there's 2 other things. I mean, on the in-car side of the business where we've had such strength over the years, 90% of our subscribers engage with us through the radio that's in the car. We have very high customer satisfaction and very leading share of ear. So really well established there and there's more we can do and more we have to do to provide more personalized experiences. And then on the podcasting business, obviously, you've seen tremendous growth there. love our strategy. It's been very consistent over the last 4 to 5 years. We continue to add new talent to the portfolio and help them grow their businesses. And we have really great ways to be able to bring content to Sirius XM in the way that matters to our customers. So I think those 2 areas, kind of our in-car business and our advertising business, will increasingly find opportunities to build synergies across them so they reinforce one another. Podcasting is a great example of that. And I think we'll talk more about packaging and pricing and what we can do there with a low cost with ads opportunity, and that takes advantage of our strength in ads and support the subscription side of the business. So really excited about the opportunities we have in audio and just in general across our business.

How about the near term, you provided '25 guidance in December. Some of that bakes in some near-term pressures that you'll work through what is success against those goals look like for you? Where might there be upside to some of those expectations?

Sure. Yes. So we're very thoughtful about the guidance process, obviously, and take into account the realities of our business and also just the market dynamics in general. And we are facing headwinds this year on subscribers, a lot of onetime impacts this year that we've talked about rate increase going into place. We have click-to-cancel that we're rolling through based on the FTC regulations. We have shorter-term trial, post trial promotions we're putting in place that pulled forward some customer DX. And then of course, we have the rationalization we did on the streaming spend. So all of that is playing out this year. I do think but for those impacts net ads would actually be slightly better or at least as good as last year. So outside of mitigating those impacts for sure, we still have opportunity in pricing and packaging and then leading into the data that we're getting back from 360L to improve how we present more personally relevant content to our customers. And then, of course, we have the ads business, and we'll talk more about that and how we're optimizing the cost structure. As these revenue opportunities take some time to play out, we believe the best place perhaps to find opportunities relative to the guidance is probably in the cost structure, right? And we've been very effective at driving efficiencies across the business in the last few years, and we think there's more opportunity to do so, really mindful about our target to end the year with $200 million in savings on an annualized run rate basis. And I'm confident we'll get there.

What are you underwriting or expecting near term regarding some of the cyclical factors that you have power over...

Everyday there is [ new ] news. So trying to keep on top of that. I think, yes, autos and ads are where we're watching very closely for impacts from initiatives that the new administration is putting in place, whether it's tariffs, primarily tariffs as it relates to automotive, but just generally level of consumer confidence, worries about inflation and things like that. So on the automotive side, it came into the year expecting had a relatively stable new car sales. It's hard to say right now where that's going to land. The first 2 months were very strong. But again, potential tariffs going in place that could impact the new car side of the business. the OEMs will find ways to try to mitigate that to meet consumer demand. And of course, we'll look for opportunities to maximize yield across that funnel no matter what we have 3-year subscriptions, launching in Tesla and Rivian and of course, 360L pricing and packaging. And then on the ad side of the business, at least on the automotive side, we're protected on the used car side, right? No tariff impact there. It's about 50% of our trial starts and more opportunities for us to grow there. On the ad side, it's definitely changing day by day. I think the first 2 months, again, pretty stable in its by category. So there's been some recent softness on retail and CPG, probably understandable, that shows up in programmatic first. And so we'll watch it carefully. Luckily, we have strength across all categories, brand, DR. So we can lean into the categories that are showing strength like telco and tech and continue to build out opportunities beyond that where there's real growth. So podcasting, we'll talk more about the extensions into video and social, aligning and integrating with retail media networks provides growth beyond some of the areas that we can't control.

Yes, you focused on in recent years on kind of 3 core goals, and you've touched on them a bit. But when we think through enhancing subscription value, driving growth in the ad business, optimizing the organization's focus and cost structure, within the framework and particularly with regard to the announcement that you had in December and focusing the organization more on the in-car opportunity, how should we think about the impacts on each of those goals that, that strategic shift has? And is it a major shift? Is it a small shift... How should we think about it?

It's really an acknowledgment of where we have strengths in our business, right? On the in-car side of the business for enhancing subscription value, which is one of our core priorities. It's about going after where we have a real foothold and making sure that we're capitalizing on that and getting the organization focused on that. So across our priorities, it's making sure that we're investing in the right areas to support where there's real return on those investments. So on the in-car side of the business, we've already delivered on a number of areas, including rolling out with Tesla and Rivian, continuing to expand 360L, which has always been a core initiative for us and building out new pricing and packaging. And then for streaming on the Sirius XM side, it's recognizing because we didn't see the growth in streaming stand-alone subscriptions, and we've rationalized our marketing spend there. It's really focusing on areas where we have opportunity to add value to the in-car subscription. So the way we support the value of our premium price subscription is improving engagement, and we have a lot more data coming back in order to do that. So we want customers to experience more content more devices and locations and across more members of the household, that's what drives value in the subscription. So we're very focused on those initiatives, and that's where streaming really helps to support those. And then, of course, on the ad side of the business, we have opportunities to expand reach we have opportunities to definitely expand monetization and yield and then to go after some of these new categories by extending into video and social. And again, core priority underlying both of these businesses is to continue to maximize efficiency across our business and find opportunities to reduce our costs.

I want to dig a little bit more into the subscription side of the business and enhancing value there. I think, one, you could probably divide it into product improvement and content. To start with content, maybe you talk to the strength of some of the personalities that you have. And Sirius is always, I think, invested in and over-indexed relative to your peers to some areas of content like news, talk, sports. Why do you think that those areas of audio content have been so successful for you and maybe less of a focus for your peers?

Sirius XM is highly differentiated in terms of what we provide live, exclusive content, curation, it's that human connection that we've really always been known for. So I think live is hard to do, and we do it really well and customers expect it from us, whether it's live sports or news or even just talk personalities we have on the platform. And I think it's been hard for on-demand services to really integrate that in an effective way. But it's also about just the right mix of content and the bundle. And that mix of content is going to be different for every individual consumer. But we really pride ourselves on making sure that there's enough of that content that's unique or exclusive to them so that consumers are experiencing music, news, talk, sports and the way that really resonate. And that shows up in the share of year, right, and the share of listening. We have the highest share of listening 39% compared to any other audio service. I think that came from the Morgan Stanley report actually. And so we feel really good about the value we're bringing to our subscriptions through the content we have and we keep adding new things, whether it's pop-up channels from Lady Gaga or Mary J. Blige that are launching or Page Six Radio that's launching later this month. But it's also about the relationships we have with talent and brands and you see that and primarily because we offer great unmatched distribution in the car, right, that they might not get otherwise, but also we've always been talent focused and working closely with brands and talent to bring to life experiences that will resonate with our listeners but also stay true to who they are. And there's just plenty of examples of that, whether it's working with the NFL or Howard Stern or Megan Kelly or the pop-up channels I've just talked about. So it's really about all of those things working together and then continuing to add value by making it easier for our consumers to find the content they love.

You mentioned Howard, I think his contract is up at the end of this year. Any update for us in terms of how those conversations are going?

Nothing specific today, but as always, we're thrilled to have Howard on the platform and want to be able to work with him for as long as he wants to be on air. It's so you started in the early days of 2006, and he continues to provide a great listening experience for our customers, and he is core to our programming offerings.

It's been quite the run.

Yes.

Music is obviously still very core to the product. I think you also have new CRB rate coming in and maybe not 2 -- for 2 more years. How do you think about that, the value of music on your platform and kind of trying to frame the -- what you see as the range of outcomes that might come from a new.

Yes. So we've been fortunate to be operating under a 10-year license through the CRB, which is -- so it's called [indiscernible], which is the satellite radio component. And that is up at the end of 2027, and I think we would love to consider a voluntary settlement, but it's typically handled through the judges. And I think what's it's really important to focus on what's really unique about our platform and we're hoping for a fair structure that reflects that. And there's really 2 key components of that. One is, again, sort of the unmatched distribution that we provide in the car and how that add value to, obviously, our listeners and music is core to that value proposition, but also the expansive listening opportunities we offer for artists to reach their fans in that way. And the other piece is what you mentioned, so we just have the breadth of content, and we continue to add news, talks, sports, podcasting content that brings value to the overall bundle. And that's going to be really important as we consider what the future rates are.

The other big piece, as I mentioned, in terms of driving subscription value is on the product side, where I know you've been making a lot of investment redefined or relaunched the streaming app what are you focused on, on the product in order to kind of continue to push the envelope there and continue to add value for the consumer?

I mean the product and technology really is in service of the content, which is truly the product. And so it's about enhancing what we do really well, making sure that we're providing those great live exclusive and curated listening experiences for our customers. But also with the proliferation of content and 360L just provides massively more opportunities to provide content into the car, it's about providing better ways for customers to find the content they love. So whether it's 360L or through the app and increasingly, customers using that app outside of the car. Helping our listeners find content. And with -- alongside the high satisfaction, our subscribers also continue to find and discover new content, which is great in terms of enhancing that value. So making sure that the product can actually serve consumers in that way and provide better search and recommendations, easier to start with the app and then bring some of that capability back to 360L. But the streaming platform is fundamental to doing that, right, whether it's hybrid, in the car or through 360L, streaming only through Tesla and Rivian or the apps and all the ways to listen outside of the car. Again, that's key to kind of building that engagement across devices and locations and household members. So that's the fundamental part of what we're doing on the product side. But we also want to make it just easier customers to move between these devices. So there'll be more work -- there's more work that we need to do to make that really seamless. So if you're moving from listening on a connected device in your home into the car that there's sort of a seamless movement of your listening experience. And then we just want to generally remove friction in the customer experience. So places like customer service, I think there's a lot of investments we're making that have very high return in terms of how we're addressing customers through chat and voice and other interactions to get them into the packages that makes sense for them.

When we think about the combination of the content and the product pieces that we've talked about, how do you think about aligning pricing in a way that's appropriately reflecting that value that you're providing to your customers?

Yes. So we're doing a lot on the pricing and packaging side this year, but it starts with the premium price points we have at the top, right? So a lot of our customers are paying $25 or $30 a month. And we want to make sure that we're providing them the most value for that subscription it goes back to the content we've talked about, goes back to the technology that helps serve that content in a better way so they can explore and discover more of that content, but also have more control, right, in certain instances. Things like extra channels and things like that bring more value to consumers because they can better customize their listening experience. So bring all this value to our subscriptions at the top, making sure that customers are listening in more locations is key to really reinforcing that value. But there's also more opportunity just with lower price points to attract more customers. So build demand and also build better retention strategies as a result. So we have a package we're rolling out now in-car at $9.99 a months. Of course, we have $9.99 for streaming only for our full content. This is music only in the car, and it comes with streaming as well. And it's our sort of starting entry price point. you can add on, on top of that in sort of $5 increments for different types of content, news, sports, et cetera. And we're just rolling it out now, but we think it's a great way to get consumers who might be more price conscious into our bet at a very compelling price point. But also, it will be an opportunity for us to better leverage it in retention to hopefully reduce our reliance on some of the promotional plans that we have been using over the years. So really it's about creating more differentiation, right? If we're going to have packages that are $25, $30 or more, we need to have packages that are at lower price points, and we need to leverage various elements to be able to do that. So the levers we have are, of course, content availability, access. We have features that we can put in different packages and then, of course, increasingly adds going forward.

What inning would you say we're in, in terms of expanding that product and packaging array for customer?

It's really early because with our 3-month trial structure, right? So you have a 3-month trial, there's typically a promotion after that, and then they roll into these new packages. So they'll choose the packages before they go into the post-trial promotion. But it's going to take time to build those out over the course of the year. But what I'm really excited about is the combination of these packages. So in-car at $9.99 for music-only and ad-supported low-cost subscription with ads that I think coming together with the data we're getting back the car in terms of who's listening to what. And on top of that, the enhanced customer service we're providing through conversational AI with [ SIRI ] AI is really compelling because we have the packages we need at different price points. We have data coming back on usage and all of that can be used for whether it's chat or voice that's AI-based to make sure that we're getting customers into the right package and then they're much more likely to stay on those packages going forward. We have opportunities to upsell. And I think that will be really important in terms of how we work with Sierra as well in terms of delivering those opportunities too.

As we bundle all of that up, how should we think about the outlook this year, next year in terms of overall ARPU growth?

So of course, it's about revenue. And the point of these packages is really the lower price packages to bring in more demand, right? So I think that alone, obviously, $10. ARPU is closer to $15, we'll see some pressure. But it's really about building volume there. But again, we have -- we're rolling through a rate increase now on our top-tiered packages. So there are opportunities to continue as long as we enhance value ahead of that. To continue to drive improvements in ARPU at the top end as well. I think just in the very near term, the rate increase is rolling through in March, I would expect the first quarter to be down year-over-year in terms of ARPU. The second quarter to look more flat and then to see benefits in the second half of the year in terms of ARPU growth year-over-year.

I think lower packages probably helped us, but what are some of the other strategies you can implement to try and keep a lid on voluntary churn moving up as you continue to take price?

Yes. So it's managing both demand and retention, and we've had a great track record on voluntary churn. And a lot of that I attribute to the process of adding value to the subscriptions in advance of rate increases, right? But again, it has to be coupled with building demand and that has a lot to do with introducing these lower-priced packages, making sure that there's more opportunities for content sampling, in different ways and introducing other types of packages like Podcasts+, which we have, which is available off platform. And our 3-year subscriptions that we're offering through the OEM and dealer channels as well. So building out more opportunities for customers to shape the package that's right for them is what's really key in managing churn, but also building the right demand.

When we think about the used car market opportunity, you mentioned earlier that, that's about 50% of gross ads or trial starts today. Historically, you talked on the recent earnings call about improved visibility there. Historically, you've used kind of a combination, I think, of dealer relationships and partnerships with service providers, et cetera, to try to move that visibility forward -- what are your other tools that you're leveraging in order to drive that increased visibility?

Yes. The relationships that we have with dealers and service providers provide the best experience to consumers that are purchasing a used car because it's point of sale, people are experiencing different or looking to discover different aspects of their new vehicle, right? But we've also added to that with a couple of new data providers that help us identify new consumers in terms of change of ownership. And that's really helped fill in the gap. So we have almost -- we're not quite there, but almost full visibility into used car now private transactions, and we're able to then market to those consumers the trial availability. But again, it works best at the dealership. We have many programs in place to make sure that those vehicles are lit up so that again, that's something that's very unique to our business model, you just get into the car, service is working and you get to experience it right away with no credit card or anything like that. So there's lots of opportunities to continue to manage yield now that the funnel has really opened up, and we continue to see a build in 360L in used cars as well. It's small, but it's growing. And so we'll see some of the benefits there as we see that roll out, too.

You mentioned 360L. How are you thinking about what that does for the new car side of the business and also on the new car side, penetration is kind of in terms of the percentage of new car sales that have a SiriusXM radio has kind of floated around that low 80% for a while now. You just struck deals with Rivian and Tesla to be included in incrementally more models. I know some of those are IP-enabled, so it's a little less not exactly apples-to-apples, but how should we think about also the number of shots on goal you have with regard to new trial starts in terms of penetration?

Yes. So the penetration rate has been in kind of the low 80s, mid-80s. I think it will be at the top end of that range given the streaming implementations that you referenced. And it's very powerful to have that kind of distribution really across every automaker at this stage and very focused on whether it's IP-only or 360L providing that enhanced personalization that, that platform can provide for customers to enhance the discovery opportunities, control and things like that. So it's really a great opportunity for us to continue to find yield within the funnel because 360L, wherever we see it, we have higher conversion rates, higher retention and ultimately higher ARPU because it's all about the data that's coming back, right? Because we can better customize the experience in the product in the car. And then we can do all the things we've been talking about, get customers into the right package based on what they're listening to, shape our marketing strategy so that we're presenting more personally relevant content through the marketing channels, be more efficient in how we market and who we market to and even take some of that data back to make better content decisions too. So it's really [indiscernible]. And we should be at 50% of new car trial starts with 360L this year. We're launching with another major OEM by the end of the year, and that should help continue to expand the availability in years to come.

Great. I want to turn to the second goal in terms of scaling or growing advertising. When we think about the ad business, and I think the landscape in general for audio, it's really in recent years, been bifurcated between growth in kind of music inventory and growth in podcast inventory, and they've painted 2 very different pictures. The growth in podcasting, as you mentioned earlier, has looked very healthy growth in music inventory across all digital music platforms has seemed to be rather lackluster. What's going on there, do you think? And how do you close the gap and help drive. And when I say you, how does the industry get better at bringing ad buyers in and better monetizing that music inventory.

Yes. It's -- so yes, podcasting has seen some explosive growth. But of course, we're focused on the full suite. And Pandora and music streaming still represents about 60% of our advertising revenue. We've been able to increase monetization there despite the losses we've seen in the user base. And really the unlock for audio is the vast difference between the percentage of consumption time, which is 25% and the percentage of ad dollars, which is like 8%. So how do we close that gap? It's really about unlocking measurement identity and targeting because with social, if you think a social or display, you can just click through the ad, and you can't do that with audio, right? So it's just fundamentally a different platform. But I think there's real opportunities to continue to enhance the monetization and close the gap by doing those things. So we have -- we're working with many providers to start being -- included in MMM model. So we can really deliver ROI to media planners and brands and agencies as they look to build audio into their plans to extend reach and frequency, right? And complementing that is better identity and targeting because with more precise targeting better identity solutions, you can actually prove that you're reaching the audiences that brands want to reach, right? So those are all key aspects and things that we're very focused on this year. We have Launched things like predictive audiences with Comscore, UID2 with Trade Desk and clean room technology with LiveRamp and GroupM help us get further along in that path. But you're right, it's about industry standards. And then the other piece is just self-serve, right, making it easier for brands and advertisers to buy at any size, right, and add it into their media plan or just design audio-only campaigns. And we have more work to do on the self-serve side. But I think it's those 2 areas that can really help us close the gap. And then outside of that, we have real opportunities to expand in video ourselves in video and social and other areas of growth like retail media networks, too.

Do you think that those areas where there continues to be room for measurement and targetability improvement? Do you think that, that is the only reason that as we've seen ad dollars in terrestrial or traditional radio decline that, that hasn't shifted more into digital audio. It seems to be a budget shift more towards just digital ad buys more broad.

It's hard to track, right? It's very hard to track the ROI on audio. And audio has traditionally been about brand building, right? And there's still opportunities. I mean we built Pandora off of brands and brands looking to really resonate with listeners and that's -- that had served us very well in building the podcasting business because podcasting had been really all about DR. And so we brought a lot of brands. I think it's 80% of our top 200 advertisers are now investing in podcasting. And there is more growth to be had there. We can't even satisfy all the demand in podcasting, which is one of the reasons. You look at the TAM for, say, audio, which has been relatively consistent about $15 billion with digital taking more share, right? And we need to -- again, we have more opportunities to take share within audio, just with the ad tech solutions we provide, our leading position in podcasting or just opening up more monetization with Sirius XM. But outside of that, we have opportunities to leverage the relationships we have with creators, and we're really helping them grow their businesses. And that's because of the -- I think what -- our unique strategy there has really played out well. We provide exclusive content for Sirius XM with many of these creators. We also monetized by distributing our platform on every consumption platform, right? So -- and we can take that, look at the growth in YouTube. I think it was last week, they said they have a billion people listening or watching podcasts every month. And we can monetize that, too, alongside the creators. So we really want to work with creators to be able to help them monetize an audio on our platforms and others on video, YouTube and others and in their social feeds. So if you go back to audio and brands wanting to find these unique experiences, much like listeners finding that human connection. You have to listen to Conan's podcast. He's so good with ads. He actually has a podcast that has all these ads on it because they're so fun. And so finding those opportunities and you can extend like with Alex Cooper across the audio podcast into video and into the social extensions. We've already booked in the first 2 months of this year than we booked all of last year in video and social. So there's really growth for us there. And that's how the brand building ties through to social, which is click and see your measurement, right? So it's full funnel. And we're building those capabilities as there's a lot of room for growth for us there.

Any update on what you're seeing in terms of the health of the ad market today?

It's choppy. I think that's the best expression. We talked a little bit before about it. It's -- the first 2 months of the year were pretty stable. And now I just think over the last couple of days, there's a lot of uncertainty, stock market volatility, the inflation or stagflation, there's retail and CPG are seeing some impacts. But again, we've got lots of areas that we have more control over where we can drive growth while we manage through some of that instability.

You've talked about the opportunity you see longer term for an ad-supported Sirius XM product. Is that something that's a longer-term opportunity? Is that something we should expect to be near term in the pipeline? And how would you frame kind of how you're thinking about that opportunity?

Just -- we do about $180 million of ad revenue on Sirius XM. It's pretty small. More opportunity to improve monetization there. Same reasons, right? It's broadcast, you got to pull it into MMM models provide better measurement. But there's certainly an opportunity there. But then we are going to open up more pricing and packaging. We have some free preview in market today, free access. I think the bigger opportunity is with a low cost subscription with ads. I think we can launch it this year. And again, it's going to take time. We're going to optimize all of these packages, but gives us an opportunity to go sub $10 without ARPU on top of it and really deliver a better entry price, again, for customers that don't mind out. You've seen it work really successfully in video, and we have the same opportunity. So yes, I think we'll launch it this year. It'll start probably with broadcast ads, and we'll be able to drive higher ad ARPU in the future as it as we can target within 360L and other environments where we have that return path of data.

What -- you talked about the strength that we've been seeing in podcasting, but what else does podcasting do in terms of the benefits to your brand, the benefits to engagement? What are the nondirect ad dollar benefits to your platform from scaling Podcasting?

We do have the highest monetization in the industry in podcasting. So I feel really good about where we are there. And then, again, we're bringing really unique content to our Sirius XM subscribers. So we're really the only platform that can provide opportunities to do both. And the content we brought in Sirius XM gives value to our listeners. It offers creators an opportunity to access new audiences and design content that's appropriate for our platform, and it just helps our business. So I think we've got the right strategy there, and we'll keep at it.

You mentioned at the top that you see room for upside on the cost efficiency side, targeting $200 million run rate savings exiting the year. What's allowing you to drive those savings? What gives you confidence in continuing to find those areas and realize those savings?

I mean we've done a lot of work already and sometimes you get to the easy stuff first, obviously. But now what's changed over the last 2 years is just the data we have, right, in terms of customer engagement. And we can leverage that across how we're implementing our marketing strategies, where we're spending, where we're pulling back, like the streaming rationalization we did our content portfolio and what that looks like. And so I really -- I think there's opportunities across the portfolio, but this ROI focus is what's really going to let us better define where we're investing, especially on the product and tech side to deliver real value for not only our subscribers, but also our shareholders.

Great. I think that's a great place to end it. We're out of time. So Jennifer, thank you so much for joining us.

Thanks, Cameron.