SMA Solar Technology AG ($S92)

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Analyst and Investor Presentation of Full Year Financial Results 2025 Conference Call. I am Valentina, the Chorus Call operator. [Operator Instructions] The conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Kaveh Rouhi, CFO. Please go ahead.

Thank you, operator, and welcome, everyone. We very much appreciate that you are taking the time for this investor and analyst call on our full year 2025 results. This conference call is scheduled for up to 60 minutes and will be recorded. After the management presentation, I will be happy to answer your questions. Today's presentation is available on our Investor Relations website. The replay will also be available on the IR website shortly. Our agenda for today. First, I will give a review of our full year figures, followed by an update on the restructuring and transformation program and some insights on strategic topics for our Large Scale division. And last but not least, we'll have a look at order backlog as well as our outlook for this financial year 2026. I expect the presentation part to last a little bit more than 30 minutes. I refer to our disclaimer on Page 2. So let's move to Page 4, financial highlights for the full year 2025. Group sales worth EUR 1.5 billion were nearly in line with last year. In the Large Scale & Project Solutions divisions, sales improved compared to the previous year. The Home & Business Solutions division declined year-on-year. Reported group EBITDA came in at minus EUR 65 million after reaching minus EUR 16 million in 2024. This was due to the lower sales volume and the resulting lower fixed cost degression in the HBS division as well as several onetime items such as devaluations and scrappage of inventories, provisions for purchase obligations and provisions in connection with the restructuring and transformation program. Operating group EBITDA before one-offs was positive EUR 107 million with a strong operating performance in our Large Scale division more than offsetting for the negative operating results in our HBS division. I will provide more insights on the individual divisions in a moment. Free cash flow reached EUR 110 million after minus EUR 184 million the year before, driven by our ongoing measures to reduce net working capital, which achieved good results in 2025. The strong positive cash flow also shows that our operating results, which exclude mainly noncash one-off effects were solid last year. Total order backlog stood at EUR 1.3 billion at the end of December as we maintain a similar level as at the end of 2024. Large Scale product business order backlog remains on a high level, providing us with a good level of visibility on 2026 revenue expectations for the division. Now let's go to Page 5, sales by region and by division. On the left-hand side, you can see that Americas revenue share was slightly up to 42% after 40% in 2024, driven by another strong year for our Large Scale division in the U.S. EMEA, which is still our biggest region with 46% share, decreased compared to 48% share in 2024 due to the soft sales development in HBS, which has the majority of its sales in the EMEA market. The APAC region share was stable with 12%. Here, Australia showed a strong development in the Large Scale business again with double-digit growth. The main markets for the U.S. -- for the SMA Group in 2025 were the U.S., Germany, Australia and the U.K. Now let me walk you through the sales per division on the right-hand side of the slide. Sales development in the division Home & Business Solutions was affected by lower demand as well as high competitive and price pressure and therefore, decreased by 30% from EUR 354 million in 2024 to EUR 247 million. Main driver for the decrease in HBS sales was the German market where the installation rate in the home segment was about 30% lower than in 2024. The division's share of sales thus came down to 16% compared to 23%. EMEA remained the biggest region for the division. Large Scale again showed a strong revenue development from EUR 1.2 billion in '24 to EUR 1.3 billion in '25. Americas was the strongest region with 47%, followed by EMEA with 39% and APAC with 14%. Now let me provide you with more information on profitability. Including one-offs, reported group EBITDA reached minus EUR 65 million. As mentioned at the beginning of the presentation, one-offs include write-offs and scrappage on inventories as well as additions to provisions for purchase commitments and restructuring provisions in total EUR 182.5 million, provisions for doubtful receivables of EUR 7.5 million and positive onetime effects of around EUR 80 million. These onetime effects significantly affected our results this year. Please note that last year's results also included negative onetime effects as well as positive onetime effects from the sale of the elexon stake of EUR 19 million. If you exclude all this, our operating EBITDA reached EUR 107 million compared to EUR 148 million in '24. Our operating EBIT margin was about 7% for '25 compared to 10% in '24. So you are probably wondering where do we see the positive effects from our restructuring efforts. What we have not considered in our 2025 one-off adjustments are adverse effects from currency translation and tariffs, which negatively impacted our 2025 results by almost EUR 50 million. The U.S. market represents a significant part of our revenues and is key for our business, while at the same time, this increases our exposure to both FX effects and tariffs. In 2025, we could pass on a large amount of tariffs to our customers, but not fully. In addition to these two effects, we also faced tough price pressure in the HBS market, which impacted our HBS results with a mid-double-digit million margin erosion. And it is in this division that we see that our restructuring and savings efforts overcompensated for this significant effect. Taking all these into account, reported EBITDA margin came in at minus 4% compared to minus 1% in '24. Depreciation was well above the prior year level with EUR 123 million in '25 due to the onetime impairments on R&D assets and fixed assets in total of about EUR 71 million in the year. Now let's have a look at the division in detail. EBIT in our Large Scale division reached EUR 211 million, which was below the level of '24 with EUR 227 million. As explained earlier, this division was especially affected by the depreciation of the U.S. dollar compared to '24, but also by tariffs. In addition to that, our update of warranty cost parameters at year-end resulted in increased warranty provisions, and we had to write down open receivables of EUR 7.5 million in the U.S. in H1 in the division. These negative effects were partly compensated by the reversal of provisions for legal disputes in connection with the settlement of an O&M contract in North America in the mid-single-digit million euro range. In comparison, 2024 was negatively impacted by impairments on inventories of [ EUR 19 million, ] while benefiting from a relatively strong U.S. dollar. EBIT for HBS amounted to minus EUR 376 million compared to minus EUR 315 million in '24 due to the price and volume-related sales decline as we -- as the one-offs effects from inventory write-offs and scrapping of about EUR 123 million, allocations to provisions for purchase commitments of EUR 36 million as well as R&D and fixed assets impairments of EUR 67 million. The overall reported EBIT margin for the SMA Group amounted to minus 12% compared to 6% in 2024. Operating EBIT margin was 3.6% in '25 versus 6.3% in '24. Now I will move on to the balance sheet and net working capital on the next slide. Net working capital, which is shown on the left of the page, decreased to EUR 213 million compared to the '24 year-end figure of EUR 473 million. This leads to a net working capital ratio of 14%, which is significantly improved compared to the ratio at the end of last year, but it also includes reductions related to inventory provisions and write-down of receivables already mentioned. Let me explain the net working capital. Inventories, including advanced payments to suppliers on inventories not yet received, were at EUR 357 million at the end of December compared to EUR 564 million at year-end '24. The decrease is related mainly to the inventory write-downs and to a smaller extent, scrapping of EUR 123 million as well as, and this is very important, operational decreases of physical inventories in our HBS division of about EUR 100 million. This has been offset by a buildup of inventories of about EUR 50 million related to projects in the pipeline for our Large Scale division. Trade receivables at the end of '25 decreased despite higher revenues, driven by our ongoing measures to ensure timely customer payments and reduce overdues. Trade payables increased by EUR 12 million in '25, mainly related to timing of supplier payments. Advanced payments received from our customers slightly increased compared to '24 as we continue to maintain a strong project pipeline and a stable level of prepayments as part of our terms and conditions in the project businesses. Net cash more than doubled to EUR 176 million at the end of December, mainly driven by the operative improvements and our solid operating profitability, while the negative one-timers are mostly noncash effect. Now let's have a look at the group balance sheet on the right-hand side of this page. As I've already explained the changes in the net working capital position, I will now focus on the major changes in the other balance sheet positions. Let's start with the changes in total cash and financial liabilities. As we need to ensure that we have sufficient cash for our business operations, we continue to use our revolving credit facility with a utilization of EUR 45 million per end of December. On the basis of our strong positive cash flow in '25, we were able to reduce our revolving credit facility position by EUR 100 million over the year. You will find this under financial liabilities in our balance sheet on the right-hand side of the page. Our total cash is EUR 222 million by end of '25. Regarding the other balance sheet items, noncurrent assets have increased slightly as a result of an increase of our deferred tax assets on losses carried forward and the IFRS 16 asset additions in Q1 related to our new gigawatt factory building long-term lease, which more than offset the one-off impairments of intangible R&D assets and production assets. Other assets were stable with EUR 52 million. Due to the negative result, shareholder equity decreased to EUR 366 million per end of December, leading to an equity ratio of 28% at year-end. Provisions slightly increased to EUR 237 million at the end of '25 as the majority of our '24 provisions for restructuring and supplier purchase obligations were consumed in '25, while new positions were made for the additional restructuring measures in late '25. Other liabilities increased to nearly EUR 500 million, mainly from the additional leasing liabilities for the new production facility. This is the corresponding liability to the IFRS 16 assets. That concludes my explanation of the balance sheet. Let's now have a look at our summary of cash flows on the next slide. Let me walk you through the miracle of having a highly negative net income of EUR 181 million to a highly positive free cash flow of EUR 110 million. In the reporting period, our cash flow from operating activities was plus EUR 156 million as compared to minus EUR 130 million in 2024. The strong turnaround in cash is driven by the optimization of net working capital and the contribution from the operating profit, which is unaffected by the significant one-off effects as these are nearly all noncash items. These effects can be seen on the slide in the lines depreciation and amortization and noncash P&L effects and changes in provisions. In 2025, the finance operations, sales and business teams worked closer than ever to adopt processes to closely monitor purchasing volumes, follow up even more diligently on late customer payments and to enforce tight cost control. This has been a key driver for our successful cash turnaround in the year. Net CapEx amounted to EUR 50 million, which is well below the level of '24 as we are managing our cash spending very closely and currently focusing investments mainly on our new Large Scale platform. Cash flows from divestments were EUR 16 million in 2025 coming from the sale of battery storage project companies of our Altenso subsidiary as well as from the sale of our coneva subsidiary. In 2024, we had slightly higher cash flows from divestments with the sale of a battery storage project company of our Altenso subsidiary also last year and from the sale of our elexon shares. Considering our cash flows from operating and investing activities in total, our free cash flow adds up to a positive EUR 110 million and is much better compared to last year with minus EUR 184 million. Please note that we had cash outflows from the ongoing restructuring program from Q2 onwards in '25. So let's move to the next page, order backlog. Looking at the left side of the slide, you see that our order backlog remained on the same level like '24 with over EUR 1.3 billion at the end of December '25 and product order backlog stood at EUR 1 billion. On the right-hand side of the page, you can see that our Large Scale product order backlog remained strong with EUR 975 million and HBS continues to maintain a lower level with EUR 43 million. For the group in total, order intake in Q4 for Large Scale was strong again with [ EUR 480 million ] and for HPS, EUR 66 million. Now let me briefly give you an update on our restructuring and transformation program as well as some new developments in our Large Scale business. As you know, we presented in the 9 months call last year, we were all well on track with our restructuring program in the Home & Business divisions and will achieve our ambitious cost saving targets. However, restructuring the business and bringing down the cost base alone will not be sufficient to ensure competitiveness for HBS going forward. I would like, therefore, to take a look at the transformation journey that we have initiated. We have already outlined the transformation along the whole value chain in our last call. I would now like to dive into some of our achievements during the last months. Our renewed and leaner portfolio is well underway. This includes the development of new solutions like the 3-phase hybrid solution that will be available in two power classes. We will introduce this solution to our customers at Intersolar in June this year. Already in January, we were able to introduce the new Sunny Tripower X 60, a new storage solution for the U.S. market will be available during '26. Overall, the portfolio is much more attuned to customer demand whilst maintaining a more competitive cost base. As part of the advanced integrated solutions concept, SMA will focus on software development, outsourcing the hardware development of HBS solutions to partners. In order to serve the need for more competence in this area, we have successfully ramped up our operations at our Global Competence Center in India and recruited 30 FTEs already in '25, planning for additional 20 in 2026. Additionally, the transition of AIS has allowed us to reduce around 50 FTE in solution development in Germany. Another cornerstone of the HBS transformation is leaner and more efficient supply chain management. We have, in the last month, established a new AIS-focused procurement setup, which also entails an optimization of our warehouse capacity worldwide. These changes enabled us to further reduce the personnel and supply chain management during the course of 2026. The revised portfolio and our AIS concept naturally have a large impact on our production footprint. We have started to ramp up the assembly at our site in Krakow, first in line were products from the so-called universe line, such as the Sunny Boy Smart Energy as well as the Sunny Tripower X. And just this month, the production of the SMA eCharger has commenced in Krakow as well. Now we will gradually be introducing our solutions that are based on the AIS concept. The shift to Krakow has enabled us to significantly reduce our head count and production in Kassel. One of the cornerstones of a transformed HBS division will be a much more focused sales and service organization that entails a strategic focus on Europe, service excellence and the USP and cost-efficient operations enabled by the MSSC. We have successfully withdrawn HBS sales businesses from the Australian, Latin American and Asian Pacific markets. We have significantly increased the number of FTEs and customer service in our MSSC in Poland, which will allow us to increase customer care whilst maintaining a lower customer base -- a lower cost base, obviously. We have also taken decisive steps to reduce the service partner costs and will continue to do so. Overall, the transformation of HBS is in full swing, and we are confident that these steps will lead to a much more flexible and competitive division that will deliver stable growth and profitability in the midterm. Whilst Large Scale & Project Solutions delivered a great result again in 2025, we are very aware of the fact that markets are also changing in this segment. There are two developments I would like to highlight today. First, we see a change in our customer base and the market for battery energy storage systems, the so-called BESS market that we are actively managing. And second, we are constantly looking into adjacent and new possible business fields that we can develop, building on our strong capabilities and market position. Two of those I would like to mention today. Over the past months, we have observed a clear shift in the customer structure within the BESS market. Historically, our core customers were system integrators, engineering-driven players focused on turnkey delivery. While they remain important partners, growth is increasingly coming from a different segment, independent power producers and specialized energy storage system developers. These customers approach storage not as a component but as a core asset class. They are optimizing for long-term asset performance, revenue stacking and life cycle costs, not just upfront system pricing. This changes the conversation from CapEx to total value creation. As a result, we are seeing longer project development cycles, larger project sizes and more sophisticated procurement processes. At the same time, these customers demand deeper integration capabilities, higher system intelligence and bankability across 15 to 20 years. SMA's technology, combined with our track record in grid integration and life cycle services, gives us an excellent position to serve these more complex value-focused customers. However, it also requires us to adopt particularly in how we engage commercially, support project development and structure long-term service offerings. No one can ignore the fundamental shift that artificial intelligence has caused in many business operations and in our everyday lives. But apart from being a revolutionary force that will certainly shape the world we live in, AI is also posing great challenges to our electricity system. According to McKinsey, global demand for electricity from data centers alone will reach almost 40 gigawatts in 2023 (sic) [ 2030. ] So it is fair to say that they are a major driver for electrification. New requirements from grid operators force data centers to actively participate with grid services like ride-through during voltage sags. Additionally, part of the data center battery backup systems can be done in a large-scale manner co-located to the data center. SMA's inverter system can solve these multifaceted requirements and enables the data center to be connected to the grid. And future generations of data centers will be powered directly with DC voltages of 800 volts and more. This is something that we at SMA are very well prepared for. Highly efficient SiC technology, over 1 gigawatt of track record into comparable use cases like hydrogen and modular and flexible systems make us a perfect fit for these challenging use cases. We see the next generation of hybrid solutions, in particular, the new SMA DC-DC converter so-called Sunny Central FLEX DC-DC kit as a key enabler for the evolution of large-scale solar plus storage systems. Market grid and financial pressures are making stand-alone solar increasingly difficult to finance, while solar plus storage hybrids are becoming the new standard for bankable projects. SMA's modular hybrid solution with grid forming capability combines solar generation and energy storage within an efficient DC coupling systems approach. We directly address the growing need for stability, flexibility and predictable power in high renewable grids. For SMA, this creates value in three key areas: first, lower system costs by integrating advanced stability enhanced DC coupling into our product portfolio, external components can be eliminated, installation simplified and system complexity reduced, improving project economies at scale. Second, higher reliability and stability. Grid forming functionality enables inertia, black start capability and advanced grid services, improving availability and increasing long-term energy yield. Third, greater operational flexibility as solar and storage become more tightly connected, intelligent DC-DC converters improve control of power flows, enabling optimized dispatch and new revenue opportunities. This is more than a component upgrade. It is the next milestone in a holistic hybrid solution. It strengthens our role as a provider of integrated high-performance grid-forming hybrid systems that reduce costs, enhance performance and unlock additional value for our customers. Now let's turn to the next page, risk and uncertainty in 2026. Before we have a look at our 2026 guidance, let me say a few words on external factors, which we have to consider this fiscal year. Regarding the conflict in the Middle East, we are clearly dealing with a new and highly uncertain situation. At this stage, no one can reliably assess its duration or its concrete impact. On the one hand, it would also result in an acceleration of the expansion of solar as energy security becomes even more important. On the other hand, a prolonged conflict is something none of us want, and this could also create supply chain disruptions. That is why our restructuring and transformation efforts to make SMA more flexible and resilient continue to be important. And on the finance and business side, scenario planning remains very important for us. The U.S. market remains the most important market for the Large Scale. However, since the decision of the Supreme Court in February that the new tariffs introduced in 2025 are unlawful, we have to cope with an additional uncertainty this year. In some cases, as we have shared with you in the past, we have already passed on tariffs to customers. In some cases, these have been invoiced but not yet paid or still need to be passed through. Until the legal situation is fully clarified, there remains a risk that tariffs may have to be refunded to or cannot ultimately be passed on to customers. Any potential refunds from the U.S. authorities would legally accrue to the importer of record, but it is unclear when these refunds will happen. And given that tariffs were partially passed through to customers in certain cases, the final economic impact will depend on contractual agreements and the evolving legal framework. Our 2026 guidance considers this risk in the mid-double-digit million euro range as a potential negative impact on our top and bottom line. Regarding the new additional 10% tariffs, which were imposed immediately after the Supreme Court ruling, we currently understand that they are legally valid and will remain in place. FEOC regulations are increasingly emphasizing the role of trusted system technologies in the solar value chain. SMA is well positioned with the systems and solution portfolio given a high standard of data security. Due to SMA's significant portion of revenue generated in the U.S. dollar, there is a high degree of dependency on movements of the euro-U.S. dollar exchange rate. While we actively manage this through natural hedging and selective financial hedging, movements in the U.S. dollar can still create fluctuations in revenue and margins. As explained earlier, this resulted in operating margin erosion for us in '25 compared to '24. For '26, we have anticipated a mid-double-digit amount, which can have a negative impact on our earnings this year. Exchange rate fluctuations such as strengthening of the U.S. dollar can, of course, also lead to a favorable effect. Let's move on to Europe. The Industry Accelerator Act will drive local content in Europe. Once this act is implemented, we will benefit from it as SMA's current positioning already meets future requirements such as reliability, sustainability and cybersecurity. The current draft of the EEG reform in Germany is only a leak, though the key points from the EEG draft were just recently confirmed by the Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs. In the past, however, EEG reforms ended differently than the first draft suggested. Therefore, also here, it's too early to assess every individual policy measure in detail. However, in conjunction with the proposed net Netzpaket, the discussions create uncertainty for the German energy market. Australia is still a very attractive market for SMA. The regulatory environment remains highly supportive for solar. With the rapid increase of inverter-based generation, grid stability requirements are changing fundamentally. Grid forming technologies, particularly large-scale battery storage and hybrid PV plus storage systems are therefore becoming a critical building block for future power systems. Additionally, the Australian government decided to expand the Capacity Investment Scheme, which contains a strong policy push for storage and system integration. SMA is well positioned for these developments. Now let's turn to the last page, our guidance for 2026. Given all these uncertainties, a broader range for our guidance 2026 was necessary to cover the various scenarios we currently consider. This translates into a sales range between EUR 1.475 billion and EUR 1.675 billion for the group and EUR 50 million to EUR 180 million for EBITDA. The planning is based on our assessment that sales in the Large Scale & Project Solutions division will be slightly above the high level of the previous year as a result of the existing high order backlog and sustained demand. Sales in the Home & Business Solutions division are expected to be higher than the previous year. Following a significant drop demand in '25, we are forecasting that market growth in our core countries will be in the low single digits in '26. In addition, actions to fill gaps in the product portfolio are intended to regain market share. Group EBITDA will see a significant positive impact in 2026 due to reductions in costs and increases in efficiency as part of the restructuring and transformation program, as explained during the call. For Large Scale, we're expecting EBIT below the previous year as a result of higher costs necessary for operations, less capitalization of R&D costs and potential currency effects. A significant part of the cost increase reflects investments in expanding our service operations. As revenues continue to grow, we are strengthening the service organization within Large Scale to maintain our high service standards, including targeted measures to further improve response times. For HBS, the Managing Board is once again expecting negative earnings in 2026, but with a significant improvement over the previous year due to the ongoing transformation process. The Management Board does not anticipate any further significant onetime items. Despite the different headwinds, management is confident that we are on the right track and 2026 will be a much better year for SMA. Last but not least, a note on our upcoming events. First quarter financial results will be published on May 13, combined with an analyst and investor call. With this, I conclude the presentation and happy to take your questions.

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Constantin Hesse from Jefferies.

First one for me, Kaveh, is, it goes without saying the guidance range this year is abnormally high. Obviously, quite uncertain environment out there, especially around the -- this tariff situation. Can you just give us an idea on what exactly is the base case for this U.S. outcome, which you would believe is the most likely outcome? Because obviously, we're talking about, I think you said a mid-double-digit million figure, so EUR 40 million, EUR 50 million. Is that kind of the magnitude that you're thinking of here?

Yes, that's a magnitude. And that's exactly the problem. I can't right now say what is the most likely outcome. Otherwise, we would have narrowed obviously the range more. The thing is either the U.S. government pays everything back, then we are in a very good position, or they don't, and we have outstanding receivables, half of that roughly, what I just mentioned, that we would need to write off, right? So that's a pretty difficult spot to be in. Other businesses, like B2C businesses, what they did is they had to swallow it fully. We had a change in law clauses where we could pass them on, but the basis was apparently unlawful. So we have now to go back and find out what we can do. So that's an ongoing process. And yes, I would say the U.S. team and lawyers are I will not say 100% sure, but they say that there's a good likelihood that the U.S. government might pay back the whole tariff, but the timing is not clear. And obviously, we have now to walk through the whole refund process and see where we are. And yes, it's just a timing problem that we just don't know now yet. But of course, in the course of the next weeks, hopefully, there is more clarity.

Okay. So maybe just -- okay, so I mean you said writing down half of that. So that would be EUR 20 million to EUR 25 million. That still doesn't explain this huge range. Can you -- and then maybe talk a little bit about the assumptions that you have at the top end and at the low end. Just trying to get a feel for what mainly explains such a massive range.

Yes. I think if you look at division by division, if you look at the HBS business, you could -- and then that's the difficulty. The question is what is happening with the different customer groups. So if you say the Middle East crisis is now leading to a place where customers become more cautious. They want to have more energy independence. They go more into home solutions because the gas prices go up, they want an electric vehicle. This could lead to a push for us. That's on the top side of things. There could also be a scenario where this crisis ends quite fast. Obviously, that's what everyone hopes. And then we have the uncertainty with the German government, where we're not really clear what the impact will be on households if the EEG goes down. So this would then obviously reduce again the baseline that we're looking at in terms of revenue growth for the revenues in the HBS business, right? And then that's just -- we haven't seen this kind of uncertainty, I would say, in the past 2 or 3 years. So that's on the upper and lower range for the HBS business. And for the Large Scale business, it's more around the tariff situation, for example, in the U.S. So how does it stabilize? If we stick with the 10% that is currently the ruling and the new ruling is okay, then of course, we are confident that we will be more on the higher end of the revenue range, obviously. If for whatever reason, the tariffs will change again because of any political decisions that I can't foresee now, this would have again an impact. So these are, I would say, the big swingers for the two divisions unless -- operationally, I would say we're doing fine.

Okay. Fair enough. Lastly, just -- I mean, obviously, this is now the exciting part. I think after this Middle Eastern conflict, we have a situation now where Europe is probably going to start -- I mean, the second crisis in 4 years, I think there's a high likelihood that Europe will probably start putting renewables at the forefront again. And obviously, storage is becoming a major focus point given grid -- given intermittency sources into the grid. So SMA is probably one of the only manufacturers in Europe with BESS manufacturing capability. So can you give us a bit of an update on what exactly you manufacture in Europe? Where do you source the components for the BESS? And maybe give us a little bit of an idea of the demand dynamics and the competitive environment just because I think this is really key to the narrative at this point.

Yes. I think -- I mean, obviously, the -- from a production perspective, the inverter itself for us in the whole value chain doesn't make a difference if it's an inverter built for PV applications or for a storage application or for a co-location application, right? So in terms of the supply and the whole value chain, that's basically the same setup, right? So we are there quite well positioned. When it comes to the capabilities and the technology advantages, and that was basically what I was trying to say in the earlier part, we see ourselves as one of the key forces when it comes to being capable of grid forming capabilities and reaction times. And this is why we think that we are very well positioned. When it comes to the whole setup, you know that we have moved basically -- we have built up together with a partner, let's say, integration capabilities in the U.S. and the [indiscernible] that goes into the whole station. They will be sourced in the future in the U.S. as well for the U.S. market. Otherwise, we source them in Europe. And the switchgears that goes into that, they are mostly German-based as well. So I think we are here quite western -- have quite a western setup, if that's answering your question.

The next question comes from Guido Hoymann from Metzler.

A number of questions. First one is the ASPs. So the average selling price fell sharply in Q4. What is the reason for that? Shall we do it one by one? I think that's best.

Let's do one by one. Do you mean the total ASP or for a specific segment?

No, total.

No, I think the total is obviously driven by the Large Scale swings. And as you know, they are project-based, right? So this is not a general trend that you say that from a drop in Q4, this will continue in a certain direction. Every project is priced differently. And obviously, we try to maintain the margins. On the other hand, we work a lot on material costs and sometimes we pass them on to customers. So that's maybe the biggest driver there. So it's nothing, I would say, special in terms of trend.

Okay. Okay. Then on Large Scale U.S. So did the -- on current trading, actually, so did the demand in the U.S. hold up in Q1 so far? Or are there any signs of how the ordering behavior of U.S. customers might change when the deadline for the Physical Work Test, I think is the 4th of July, will end. So do you still have -- or do you have a feeling that we have some prebuying? Or do you perceive the market behavior or participants' behavior to be sort of normal?

No, I think -- no, we don't see any change. First of all, Q1 looks also good, I would say. We don't see any major shifts. We are pretty much in what we expected. In terms of behavior, I think we tried to mention that a couple of times when it comes to safe harboring, I think that's where you're going. When we talk to customers, we realize that mostly they don't safe harbor through the inverters, but through other means. And that's why we don't see an uplift through safe harboring and we don't see a drop. We are just basically brought into the game when the customer is in a position to continue their projects. So that's a stable development in current trading. It looks good.

And I think you addressed that already, but still in HBS. So if business wise, would the Polish -- the subsidies for rooftop PV, how big could the impact be on your business? Or in other words, how relevant is the German market for HBS?

So the German HBS market is very relevant for us. That's why we look into that. Now comes a bit -- if you look -- and we did some model calculations, if you look at it from a customer perspective, from a household perspective, if you have -- in the past, you had just a PV rooftop and a PV inverter and most of the electricity you consume directly, right? Or if you didn't, you would pass it on and you would get up to, let's say, EUR 500, EUR 600 a year as kind of subsidy. And over 10 years, that's EUR 5,000 to EUR 6,000, which drives the business case, right? So if you compare to this being gone, it would have a big impact. However, the new systems that are currently sold are more linked to hybrid inverters and the battery storage. So people consume actually most of the electricity themselves, either through direct usage or using the battery. So what we estimated is something between EUR 100 and EUR 150 that they might lose on an annual basis. So then it's a loss of EUR 1,000 to EUR 1,500, right, compared to the previous cases. So our estimate is it will not have a positive impact if subsidies are gone, but we don't expect a dramatic drop. What it does is it creates uncertainty amongst the people, and this is maybe the worst part. If you look at it from an economic perspective, there would be an impact, and I mentioned that, but it would not be a -- probably not a dramatic impact.

[Operator Instructions] Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Kaveh Rouhi for any closing remarks.

Thank you again for your interest, and please do not hesitate to contact us in case you have any further questions. So thank you all for your time. Goodbye, and have a great day.

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