Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining. I'm Megan Clapp. I am the U.S. food analyst at Morgan Stanley. Really pleased to have Smithfield Foods here today, the CFO of the company, Mark Hall. Mark is going to kick it off with a couple of slides. Just to give a brief overview for those new to the story, and then we'll get into some Q&A.

Thanks, Megan. Thanks, everybody, for joining us this afternoon. As Megan indicated I'm Mark Hall, I'm the Chief Financial Officer for Smithfield Foods. And before we get started, I just want to mention the matters discussed today during this presentation and the fireside chat may include some forward-looking statements. Please refer to our Form 10-K and 10-Q for discussion of these factors that could lead the company's actual results to differ materially from these expectations. And I'll also speak to some non-GAAP financial information and a reconciliation of those to the nearest GAAP measure is also included within the appendix of our investor presentation on the Smithfield IR website. So just framing up a little bit about our business for those that aren't familiar with Smithfield. Smithfield Foods is a leading American food company with over $15 billion in annual sales. We focus on driving profitable growth through our Packaged Meats business, which generates more than $1 billion annually in segment profit. So alongside the investments in our business, we've consistently returned cash to shareholders in the form of a dividend. And we have a tremendously strong balance sheet and cash flow, and that combined with our iconic brand portfolio and expanding market opportunities really position us well to continue growth, market leadership and value creation for our shareholders. On the next page, just a few key metrics about our business. For the trailing 12 months ended September, we delivered sales of $15.3 billion, and our adjusted EBITDA for the same time period was $1.6 billion. And today, we lead with our Packaged Meats business. Packaged Meats segment sales for the trailing 12 months were $8.7 billion, which represented about 57% of our total sales with a league-leading adjusted segment profit margin of 12.7%. And now the U.S. value-added Packaged Meats market that we compete in across 25 categories represents about $46 billion of sales opportunity. And we are the #2 ranked branded market share across those 25 categories that we participate in. We have a 93% ACV and strong customer loyalty with an 81% repurchase rate. And over the past year, since 2013, with our acquisition by WH Group, we've reinvested more than $4 billion in CapEx to further strengthen our production capabilities, our differentiated supply chain and really strengthen our competitive platform. We also take a lot of pride in our balance sheet. So with $3.1 billion of liquidity and a ratio of net debt to adjusted EBITDA of only 0.8x, we have a lot of flexibility to continue to grow the business. We returned to the public markets this January with an IPO, and we're very proud of our execution since that event. Despite a very challenging consumer and raw material inflationary environment, we've delivered record adjusted operating profit each quarter of 2025. And as a result, we've raised our full year guidance. And really, it's about the power of our vertically integrated model and that's evidenced by the fact that we had record results on a year-to-date basis, consolidated, although none of the individual segments has had a record year. As I mentioned, our Packaged Meats business continues to grow, grew at a rate of 6% through the first 9 months of 2025, and that really reflects the power of our branded portfolio and again, an industry-leading segment profit margin of 12.7%. We also continued to deliver operating efficiency and cost savings across the enterprise, and we're on track to reduce our internal hog production by roughly 3 million head versus last year, and that will put us at under 11.5 million head internally produced by the end of the year, and this is going to lead to more stability in our cash flow and earnings. And as I mentioned, we have a rock-solid balance sheet. At September 28, that net debt to adjusted EBITDA rate of 0.8x, giving us that flexibility to fund future growth and expand shareholder value. So in summary, before I sit down with Megan for the Q&A, we're very excited about the opportunity ahead for our Packaged Meats segment to continue to grow market share. And really, we've demonstrated that our industry-leading operational excellence and record results we've been able to deliver despite very challenging market conditions and this sets us up to continue to deliver growth in our Packaged Meats business, market leadership and continued value generation for our shareholders. So with that, I'll sit down with Megan for the Q&A.

Great. Great overview. So maybe we can start with -- this was -- you talked about it a bit. This was a record operating profit this year so far through the third quarter for Smithfield and it didn't come from any 1 segment which is impressive. So as you look ahead to 2026, how do you expect the profit mix because you are a vertically integrated company, how should investors think about the profit mix evolving across the portfolio as you benefit from that vertical integration?

Yes. So 2025, as you indicated, just an outstanding year, record results, although no single segment had a record year. And we really look to continue to build on that in 2026. So without providing any specific guidance, the outlook is very strong. For our Packaged Meats business, we're going to continue to grow volume and share through innovation. We're also going to continue to evolve our mix of high-margin value-added products and we're going to continue to take costs out of the organization looking every year to more than offset the impact of inflation through savings in our plant operations, through supply chain and also through SG&A. And we also believe that the raw material inflation, the raw material marketplace will be favorable for Packaged Meats next year with meat values coming down slightly. Across the other parts of our vertically integrated network within Fresh Pork and hog production, the futures curve continues to look very positive for hog production, and we have a best-in-class cost structure on the farms that we've retained. And we have a best-in-class cost structure on our Fresh Pork side of our business as well, which supplies our Packaged Meats business. So the outlook for 2025 is very bright.

Great.

And for 2026.

Great. And vertical integrations, you're a bit unique in that maybe relative to food manufacturers, in particular, but maybe even some of your protein peers. So as we think about the vertical integration in your business, as you've looked over the past year or past several years, we've gone through the hog cycle. How has the vertical integration been a competitive advantage for you? And do you see structural changes in the industry that are tailwinds because you have that integration?

Yes. It's truly been a competitive advantage for us. Again, with record consolidated results this year, even though no segment had a record year, where you're really seeing the power of that vertical integration. So starting with our hog production segment producing about 11.5 million head that we transferred to our Fresh Pork segment and Fresh Pork transfers that fresh meat, oftentimes the best sale for our Fresh Pork business is to sell and we call it flipping over the wall for further processing to our Packaged Meats business. So we supply our packaged meats business with about 80% of its raw material requirements from the Fresh Pork segment. So we transfer 100% of the bellies for further processing into bacon, about 75% of our hams become packaged meats products and about 70% to 75% of our trimmings become packaged meats because that's where we can extract the most value. So by doing so, it reduces our raw material costs. And we've also been able to have best-in-class operations across our vertically integrated network. So taking costs out of our farms so that we are best-in-class across the retained farms and our Fresh Pork operations and also in Packaged Meats.

Great. Maybe shifting to demand a little bit, and you talked about how bright the outlook is for Packaged Meats looking into 2026. The environment is a bit tough, macro uncertainty persists. There's a lot of questions around the path of the low-end consumer. In your business, hopefully, actually pricing does start to normalize a bit as we look into 2026. So when you think about Packaged Meats, what's different about your business and being able to weather through some of those headwinds on the macro side and where are the opportunities? And what gives you kind of confidence to drive volume growth in '26?

Yes. So the 25 categories that we competed in Packaged Meats represent about a $46 billion sales opportunity for us. And in 10 of those categories, individually, there are $1 billion of market opportunity. And in those 10, we have the #1 or #2 position in 6 of those categories. And we still have additional opportunity to further penetrate those categories through product innovation, increasing the number of SKUs that we're selling and really building out the breadth of our portfolio across the stores. But in 4 of those categories that are individually over $1 billion, we're not #1 or #2 today. And so we have a real opportunity to expand. And packaged lunchmeat is a great example of that. It's a $6.3 billion category where today, we hold the #5 market position and we have about a 9% share. And we've really been able to make significant headway in that category, and we'll continue to grow and develop in there in 2026.

Maybe just expanding on the category discussion a bit. Packaged Meats, as you mentioned, it's been a really great year for the category for yourself. As you think about those 25 categories that you compete in, is there another Packaged Meats when we look ahead? Is it about -- where do you see the most opportunity to continue to expand distribution and drive innovation?

So what's unique to Smithfield is the way our brand strategy is laid out in Packaged Meats is we have a branded solution wherever that consumer is in their price portfolio from the high end through the mid-tier and the low end, the value side of the equation. So as that consumer trades up or down across that pricing spectrum, we have a quality branded solution to meet their needs. And we also participate in private label, which is unique, about 40% of our business at retail is in private label. And so we're able to partner with our customers to really develop that private label business and really eradicate some of the margin differential that historically has been hung on the private label side of the business versus branded. So specifically, I think we can continue to grow in that packaged lunchmeat category, that $6.3 billion category. We introduced a product line called Prime Fresh slice deli which solved both a customer -- a consumer problem. Customers were having trouble staffing labor counter -- the deli counters and consumers wanted to grab and go convenient product. We've been able to slice that product fresh in our factories, place it in an overwrap zip block bag. It's preweighed, prescaled, pre-priced. And so the customer can put that out in front of the bunker for convenience and we also get a secondary display in the meat case, and we're seeing double-digit growth in that production line. Additionally, dry sausage is another category for us to continue to grow. Dry sausage. So think of things like salamis and pepperonis for serving on charcuterie boards and snacking. That's a category that's going to grow upwards of 6% through 2030 and we've been able to outpace that growth and continuing to add products that are convenient prepared solutions for consumers.

So you just shared a lot of nice examples of innovation on the retail side. You also have a big foodservice business, which is a bit unique. So can you just talk about maybe some -- give some examples of recent wins on innovation on the foodservice side because you've continued to outperform the broader industry as well on that side.

Yes, absolutely. So we have a robust innovation pipeline today in foodservice and ongoing into 2026. And it's really about meeting that consumer and customer need. And so in the foodservice space, there's a real focus on reducing labor cost, convenience and getting consistency in the product offerings in terms of when they're recounting on location. So what we've been able to do is really accentuate the precooked product side of our business. So a ready-to-eat bacon or a pulled pork product or a pulled chicken product and so the foodservice retailer is able to take that labor out of their stores and meet the cycle times. And we've been tremendously successful outpacing the industry, as you mentioned, with a 3% volume growth in foodservice, where -- and that's in an environment where food away from home inflation is upward of 4% and food at home is only 2%. So folks have been trading down from that food service occasion to a retail occasion, we're able to capture that store traffic and continue to drive results in the food service channel. So we've completed over 50 limited time offers with our foodservice partners this year and expect that trend to continue with innovative new products in foodservice.

Maybe just a little bit on the competitive environment. It seems like retailers are amping up the focus on value, just given some of the concerns in the low-end consumer. As you think about 2026 in your categories, 2-part question. How are you thinking about balancing promotional intensity with the pricing power that you've earned? And then two, as you've taken price this year in some categories due to inflation, what have you learned about elasticity and kind of brand strength that maybe surprised you?

Yes, it's really -- it gets back to our brand strategy that we talked about. And for us, it's less about price discounting because we don't believe that's a sustainable business model. So we have that brand strategy that really resonates with the consumer wherever they are in their budgetary constraints. So we have a branded solution that meets them where they are or a private label alternative. What we've seen from competitors in 2025 is that deep discounting that you've mentioned. So promoted volume through the third quarter across the industry was upwards of 9%, and their share was actually declining. Our promoted volume, because we stayed true to our strategies was actually down about 5%, and our share was flat to growing across all of our categories. So again, it's about staying true to our pricing and brand strategies and look to continue to develop that with product offerings that are innovative across that pricing spectrum.

Great. So I wanted to ask, protein is all the rage. It's all we hear about. Smithfield is 80% pork, 20% beef. Is that -- as you think over the next 3 to 5 years, is that the right strategic identity longer term? Is there a desire to move into other proteins? Or are you -- what are the kind of the benefits of being more of a pure-play pork company?

Yes, the 80-20 split is relative to our Packaged Meats business. And really, what we found is that pork is uniquely positioned to compete in Packaged Meats because of the diversity of pork in terms of the cuts and flavor profiles. And the younger demographic, that consumer is looking for international flavors. So think of Asian or Mexican food that traditionally that the protein underlying that cuisine is pork-based. And so it's about developing flavors that are of interest to that younger demographic to keep them in the pork franchise. And so we'll continue to opportunistically look at opportunities to expand that 20% that is non-pork-based. Primarily for us, it's in the beef protein for our Nathan's hot dogs or it's in poultry for our sliced lunchmeat. But we'll look at opportunities to expand the portfolio, but it will be on the Packaged Meats side of the business. We don't have an interest in getting into the live side of the other proteins.

As we think about that, how do you manage the -- capturing the supply, getting adequate supply, beef has obviously been a challenge in terms of supply and pricing. So what's been -- what's your strategy on the beef side? And kind of how would you look to navigate that going forward if you choose to expand?

Yes. It's interesting for us. We are pricing to cover that inflation. So we went back with our private label customers specifically, and we've renegotiated our agreements such that the price to them ebbs and flows with that underlying commodity and we have effectively a fixed adder for the overheads and profitability. So we're playing catch up this year, and there's been a little bit of margin compression because the margins -- excuse me, the raw materials have continued to increase. But as those markets begin to turn, the margins will return to a more normal state.

Got it. You spoke about it a bit. But raw material volatility has been a major theme across the industry this year in protein across pork, chicken and beef, quite frankly. So you guys have -- your margins have seen a little bit of compression in Packaged Meats, but all things considered and relative to peers, you've managed it quite well. What are kind of the structural advantages that have allowed you to outperform even as you said, you're still catching up and there's opportunity for recovery.

Yes. Certainly, for us, the vertical integration has helped us on the pork side of the business. And then it's about our brand strategies again with that pricing portfolio and the underlying work that we did on renegotiating contracts on private label items. But it's also -- for us, it's about operational excellence and every year, again, we develop plans to more than offset inflation within the 4 walls of our facilities and our supply chain and in our farms, and that's really benefited us to the extent that we're able to more than offset any compression in the industry market spread on the Fresh Pork side of the business with cost savings.

And as we think about Packaged Meats margins looking ahead, cost will hopefully be a good guy, mix automation should continue to help margins as well. Is there any way to kind of rank order how to think about those drivers into 2026? And then you said 12.7% on a trailing 12-month basis for Packaged Meats. Is there a right way to think about what that margin profile looks like through a cycle?

Yes. So in prior years, so in 2024, we are upwards of 13.6% near 14% margin on Packaged Meats. And again, there's been that compression because we've been chasing commodities up that pricing curve. For us, I think it's a little bit of a pause on that long-term algorithm. We're going to continue to move Packaged Meats profitability up into the right as we call it. And it's about that mix improvement. So selling into those higher-margin categories, that oftentimes have 4 or 5x the profitability of our more commoditized product offerings. So we'll continue to expand margins and look to continue to -- that mix evolution will be ongoing and continue to improve our cost structure.

Great. Shifting more to the commodity side of the business. You've been on a journey to reduce the size of the hog herd, 10 million hogs, which is roughly 30% vertical integrations, what you've talked about getting to in the medium term, maybe closer to near term at this point. Can you just explain why you think that's the right level for the business, how you came to that decision? And how does that allow for adequate supply and flexibility within the business?

Sure. For us, it's all about a surety of that quality supply of hogs into our Fresh Pork business and ultimately for further processing into Packaged Meats. We came to that conclusion really through modeling out where there is a robust supply of external hogs to be procured. And so in the Midwest, there is an external supply that is rather robust and can meet the needs of our supply chain. On the East Coast, where we have 2 of the larger harvest facilities for our Fresh Pork operations, there really isn't a robust external network of hog suppliers. So we'll be more heavily indexed to internal supply there, but we've also had significant success in converting former contract growers into independent suppliers. And so we'll continue down that path, and we'll be very strategic and very surgical with those providers that we decide to convert from contract grower into an independent farmer.

Is there anything that would cause you to revisit the 10 million either way?

Yes. Well, it's an ongoing evaluation and we'll continue to assess effectively market by market, what's the optimal mix for us.

Great. Wanted to talk a little bit about M&A. You talked about your strong balance sheet, you return cash to shareholders. You're still going to have some -- you still have some excess cash. You invest in CapEx and back into the business. But you've also talked about M&A, you've done some bolt-on acquisitions. You did the dry sausage, bought that facility, which allowed you to expand capacity with that category. So in an instance like that as you go forward, how do you think about what's the right use of cash and evaluating those bolt-on opportunities? And what's your criteria as from a financial and operational perspective.

Sure. We have a very strong portfolio of brands, as we've discussed. So we don't feel that we need to pay up to pay a multiple to acquire brands. So we look at M&A as an opportunity for us to solve any sort of potential hole we may have in future capacity or capabilities. So you mentioned the Nashville acquisition. So that was a very cost-effective way for us to continue to acquire capacity in a very highly attractive growing category of dry sausage. So a part of our planning process was looking at a potential capacity hole in 2026 for dry sausage and this facility came on the market, and it was very cost effective as compared to a greenfield build. And the seller didn't have a branded business to support it, and we're able to come in and make that facility profitable very quickly, move some things around within our network and continue to grow dry sausage. So we'll continue to be opportunistic when it comes to M&A. Obviously, we want to continue to grow our capacity and capability in Packaged Meats. And we're looking at opportunities to complete the vertical down in Mexico where we have a hog production and a Fresh Pork business today and our customer partners want us to have local production down there so we can produce both our Smithfield brands and their private label brands. And so whether that's a greenfield build or an M&A opportunity, we'll continue to evaluate, but that's a very attractive marketplace for us, and it's a pork-deficit nation. And as I mentioned before, pork is the primary protein consumed in Mexico. So it's an attractive opportunity for us to continue to grow.

Mexico, clearly, maybe top of the list, but are there any other obvious categories or geographies that have natural synergies that you're thinking about?

Yes. I think we'll explore across the North American footprint. But again, it's going to be -- it's going to be within the Packaged Meats value-added space, and it's towards the high end on fresh pork, whether it's case ready or marinated capacity, but that value-added space is the sweet spot for us.

Okay. Shifting gears a little bit. Investors often ask about the ownership structure of Smithfield. You were bought by WH Group back in 2013, I believe, and then spun back out into the public markets earlier this year. The WH has sold down a little bit more since the IPO. But how should investors think about kind of the long-term path for the current ownership structure?

Yes. So you mentioned WH acquisition in 2013 and then we went private and came back to the public markets in January this year. And WH has been a tremendous sponsor of the business. Together, we've reinvested over $4 billion in capital since the acquisition. And the WH model is such that local businesses are run by local management. So whether that's in their China operations, whether it's in Europe or in the U.S. They're going to continue to be a long-term shareholder. But again, the day-to-day operations are really in our control.

Great. Are there any questions in the room?

Sorry, I just wanted to clarify the divisional stuff here because is pretty much all the hog production internal? Is that right?

So today, we're decreasing from a high point that was about 50% of our need back in 2019. We'll finish this year at roughly 40% and the glide path is to get to just under 10 million head internally produced, which would be about 1/3.

Right. And then -- because I'm just looking at the margins, the Fresh Pork, I mean, it's extremely low. So it's like nearly half your sales, right, or more than half your sales?

So Fresh Pork, primarily, again, in a number of cases, Fresh Pork, the best sale of that fresh pork raw material is an internal transfer to our Packaged Meats business. So again, all of our bellies, all of our hams and all of our trimmings, we do have external sales in Fresh Pork of about $5 billion. So it's -- whether it's the domestic marketplace, that value-added space that I talked about with case ready or marinated as well as the export of off-all products to international markets. But the Fresh Pork business primarily is a spread business. So it's the value of the meat versus the cost of the hog. And we've done a tremendous job in being able to offset that market spread compression through cost savings and having a best-in-class cost structure on the Fresh Pork side of the business.

So like if I think, say, 5 years ahead, what kind of operating margin do you think you can get to as you're around 7% or something now, right, 7%, maybe 8% next year or something like that?

Yes. So again, it's really going to be driven by expansion -- continued margin expansion in our Packaged Meats business. And as we mentioned, in 2024 upwards of 14% that kind of paused this year with that cautious consumer and high inflation on raw materials. But we look to continue to expand our value-added presence skewing on that upper end of the margin structure with 4 to 5x the profitability of our commodity business.

I mean, is 10% realistic, if I take a longer-term view?

We're not providing guidance. But again, those upper end margins on the Packaged Meats side of the business.

Okay. Maybe we can just finish with 1 because I think we're almost out of time. Wrap up, where do you think the market continues to underestimate or misunderstand your business?

It's interesting. We -- I think we kind of get swept up in the general consumer malaise and the inflationary marketplace but again, we've been able to drive record results despite these market headwinds. And so I think we've been steadfast in executing our strategies and you're seeing the results. So I think it just -- it takes time for the market to appreciate that we continue to deliver on what we say we're going to deliver on. And that will come. It's just up to us to continue to execute.

Awesome. That's a great place to end. Thanks, everyone, for joining in the room and on the webcast. And thanks, Mark, for being here.

Thank you.