Snam S.p.A. (SRG) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Snam Full Year 2023 Consolidated Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Francesca Pezzoli, Head of Investor Relations of Snam. Please go ahead, madam.

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Snam Full Year 2023 Consolidated Results. Today's presentation will be hosted by our CEO, Stefano Venier; and by our CFO, Luca Passa. In the presentation, Stefano will provide an overview of the key highlights and achievements of the period. Luca will walk you through the financial performance, then back to Stefano for closing remarks and finally, the Q&A session. And now I will hand over to Stefano.

Thank you. Thank you, Francesca, and good morning also on my side. On full year 2023, we think we delivered solid results in a complex environment characterized by geopolitical instability, cyclical gas demand, volatile gas prices and rising interest rates. The acuteness of the energy crisis eased in 2023, but energy markets, geopolitical and global economy remain unsettled, highlighting the importance to continue developing on an infrastructure to secure reliable, affordable and, in the future, decarbonized energy supply. Over the past 18 months, we have been -- we have made significant progress along the key pillars of our strategy, strengthening the security of supply, while laying the foundations of our long-term growth. These significant progresses were achieved delivering financial results above guidance and sound and consistent sustainability performance. We continue to offer an attractive and sustainable shareholder remuneration by proposing a dividend of EUR 0.2820 per share that is up 2.5% versus previous year, in line with the guidance. We already paid EUR 0.1128 interim dividend in January, while the balance of EUR 0.1692 per share will be paid on the 26th of June. Now let's move on Page 3. In the full year 2023, we have delivered an adjusted EBITDA in excess of EUR 2.4 billion. That is up 8% year-on-year, mainly thanks to the RAB growth, output-based incentives and the contribution of the energy transition activities. The adjusted net income at EUR 1,168 million is above the upgraded guidance of EUR 1,140 million given during the strategic plan presentation on 25th of January. Investments, EUR 2.2 billion are accelerating and up by 14% versus 2022, while financial ratios remain well below the threshold set by the credit agencies that all [ 3 ] confirmed their view, rating and outlook. Full year gas demand declined by 10%, with average gas prices 4% below full year 2022, characterized by consistent volatility showing the fragility of the energy system, while in the first 2 months of 2024, we had stable volumes at 14 bcm. The gas flows continue to be impacted by the geopolitical situation. The volumes decline from North was offset by the increase of LNG imports that reached 16 bcm or 26% of total demand and the lower demand. Many developments happened on the regulatory front. The annual weighted average cost of capital update triggered an uplift of 80 bps on transport and 60 bps on storage and LNG for 2024. The regulator also approved the introduction of the base Ross from 2024 on transport, while positive changes such as the recognition of CapEx and OpEx capitalization rates based on the average of the historical and forecast data up to 2025 and updated deflator recognition, a better work in progress remuneration and the shorter time lag for D&A only from 2025. All in all, it means a faster cash conversion. Let's now move to the associates. We have started an active portfolio management strategy to extract and maximize value by, first, successfully placing along with the other core shareholders, a 5.7% De Nora shares to promote the stock liquidity; second, issuing an exchangeable bond into Italgas shares minimizing our cost of debt while keeping voting rights and expected dividend flows. As far as the international associates, they enjoyed better visibility as Teréga and DESFA positively completed the regulatory review. On Page 4. 2023 has been a year of progress and delivery on our strategy to become a pan-European multi-molecule operator, leveraging on a modular, flexible and repurposed infrastructure to secure the energy supply. Starting with gas infrastructure. The Adriatic line, the backbone to strengthen the South-North import was fully approved, [ defined strategic ] and will receive EUR 375 million of RePower EU funds. Site works will start next May. We reached a record level -- we reached a record storage level at 99% before the winter and offered new services such as the reverse flow. They continued in the first 2 months of 2024 with more than 24.5 bcm of injection that contribute to keep storage facility quite full. We expect storage to remain well above 50% full at the end of the winter, thus helping to reduce the gas prices volatility and making the infilling season smoother. We brought onstream the first FSRU in Piombino that so far received 19 ships for a total of 1.7 bcm, while we progress the works for the Ravenna that will be completed by the year-end. Let's now move on to the energy transition platform. Our energy efficiency B Corp Renovit has contributed to the group EBITDA, thanks to the delivery of deep renovation project pipeline while repositioning the business towards long-term performance energy contracts. At the end of 2023, the backlog reached EUR 1.2 billion, and the order intake of the year was higher than EUR 500 million. On biomethane, we are progressing on our 2-fold role: on one side, optimizing the interconnections of plants to the network with more than 320 request standing as of the end of 2023; second, acting as industrial developer with about 41 megawatt of biomethane or biogas plants in operation. During the year, we refocused our portfolio capacity by deconsolidating 8 megawatt that were called Iniziative Biometano and acquiring 7.4 megawatt of agri plants and 4 megawatt of waste plants as part of the former agreement. While 2 megawatt biogas are under upgrade to biomethane and we submitted additional 6 plants on February 2024 in the tariff actions launched by the GSE. The third pillar of the energy transition platform that is based on hydrogen and CCS, both projects, as you know, have been qualified as PCI. We have recently launched in cooperation with the Italian industry association and market sound to assess the hard-to-abate industry's appetite. The pilot phase on Ravenna CCS project is on track, injection will start by summer. On Page 5. On sustainability, our all-round approach enabled us to make progress along the key KPI included in our sustainability scorecard that you can find in the appendix. In 2023, CapEx aligned to EU taxonomy and SDGs represent respectively 29% and 61% of the total and sustainable finance reached the 80% 3 years ahead of schedule. Let me now highlight some updates and new commitments. Snam is the first TSO globally to join SBTN corporate engagement program and to commit to positive impact on biodiversity by 2027 and will be neutral by 2024. We have performed a thorough climate change risk assessment, confirming the resilience of our assets with reference to physical and transition risks under different scenarios aligned with the IPCC. We established a new document, which states our commitment to fulfill our mission in accordance with the Paris Agreement. And finally, we have been first globally to be assessed by Moody's under their net zero assessment for our decarbonization ambition to be well below 2 degrees and in line with Paris Agreement goals. Our ambitious target, firm commitments and consistently improving performance are reflected in our leading position across all different ESG ratings. Let me now move forward to the CO2 emission performance. Scope 1 and 2 are down 10% versus 2022, which is our baseline and down by 17% versus 2019 on regulated activities. This is driven by the remarkable performance on methane leakage detection that are down by more than 20% year-on-year and by 57% versus 2015, that is the baseline assumed by the United Nations. On Scope 3 emissions, we are down 4%, using as a reference 2022 regulated perimeter adjusted to include the SeaCorridor acquisition that was performed from the beginning of 2023. Let's now move on Page 6 on gas flow demands -- and demand. With regard to the gas market context, the Italian full year 2023 demand posted almost 62 bcm that is, as I said, down 10% or 8.7% on a weather-adjusted basis. That was due to thermoelectric sector, down 13.6% year-on-year or about 4 bcm, driven by rising hydroelectric production that is equivalent to 1.9 bcm, strong increase in net imports that is equivalent to 1.5 bcm and electricity demand decline. The industrial sector was down 0.6 bcm, mainly driven by energy-intensive sectors. It's worth mentioning that in Q4 2023, the industrial gas demand experienced a recovery, plus 7.3% versus the same period in 2022, mainly driven by chemical industry and transport sector. The third sector that is the civil sector was characterized by around 2.1 bcm due to milder weather, that is about 0.8 bcm demand containment actions for 0.4 bcm and increase in the energy efficiency, while, as I said in the first 2 months of 2024, we had stable volumes at 14 bcm. Let's move into gas flows in 2023, that they were impacted by the geopolitical scenario with a 56% reduction in volume from North that were compensated primarily by an increase of LNG volume by 15%. And finally, we exported 2.6 bcm to Austria and marginally to Switzerland into the full year. Let me now turn to Luca for the financial results.

Thanks, Stefano, and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Let me now move to Slide 7 for a brief overview of the full year 2023 financial results. Adjusted EBITDA is up 8% versus 2022, thanks to tariff RAB growth, the increase in output-based incentives as well as energy transition EBITDA growth. Adjusted net income stands at EUR 1.168 billion, above guidance, mostly thanks to a better-than-expected associates contribution. Total investments, including the Ravenna FSRU acquisitions are up 14% versus the previous year and higher than our guidance. As a result, the 2023 tariff regulated asset base reached [ EUR 22.4 billion ], up by around 5% versus 2022. Finally, net debt is at EUR 15.3 billion lower than our guidance of EUR 15.5 billion. The increase versus 2022 is mainly attributable to the expected reversal of the 2022 working capital effect. Moving to Slide 8 on CapEx. Out of the total EUR 2.2 billion for the full year 2023 investments, 29% EU taxonomy aligned and includes: as far as transport is concerned, H2 ready replacements, investments to reduce methane leakage and emissions, which comprise electric compressors replacing gasified compressors, new valves with better [ fugitive ] standards and biomethane plants connections. With regard to the energy transition businesses, 100% of H2 and CCS part of biomethane depending on the technical standards of the plants and energy efficiency excluding cogeneration. The 29% alignment is below full year 2022, mainly due to the increase in FSRUs investments. SDG alignment is instead 61%, of which the majority goes towards SDG 7, 9 and 13, respectively, affordable and clean energy, industry innovation and infrastructure and climate action. These investments related to the FSRU are considered aligned to the SDG #7 as promoting affordable energy and security of supply in the current volatile scenario. Let's now move to a full year '23 EBITDA analysis on Slide #9. EBITDA for the period was EUR 2.417 billion, plus 8% versus last year or EUR 180 million. The growth is mainly attributable to EUR 171 million growth in regulated revenues related to: transport, storage and LNG revenues increased by around EUR 130 million, the incentives related to the fully depreciated assets for around EUR 45 million recognized starting from 2023, higher contribution from storage flexibility services around EUR 40 million, mainly related to the short-term auctions provided in 2022 and booked in the third quarter of 2023. These effects were partially counterbalanced by a negative volume effect due to the already commented lower gas demand and the usual phaseout of input-based incentives. A further EUR 36 million increase in the energy transition business, mainly attributable to the energy efficiency, thanks to the maximization of the delivery of our backlog on residential business and the growth of public administration deep renovation. With regards to biomethane, the positive performance of the agri plants was partially counterbalanced by a decrease in waste due to the volumes and price effect. The increase in regulated fixed cost, EUR 90 million is mainly attributable to the Piombino FSRU cost. The difference of items, others, is mainly due to the one-off contribution in first quarter 2022 from the sale of the gas excess inventory, EUR 33 million impact positive and the expiry at the end of 2022 of the fees related to the TLC contract for EUR 50 million, partially offset by the positive contribution of other nonregulated businesses and lower capital losses. Moving to net income. I'm on Slide #10. Adjusted net income for the period was EUR 1.168 billion, plus 0.4% compared to full year 2022, due to higher D&A by EUR 67 million following rising investments, net financial expenses higher by EUR 98 million, mainly as a result of higher gross cost of debt, which moved from 1.1% in full year 2022 to approximately 2% in full year 2023 due to the increase in interest rates, a slightly higher contribution from associates for EUR 7 million, which was the result of lower international associates contribution, mainly driven by TAG and partially offset by the contribution of SeaCorridor, a positive contribution of the Italian associates. Higher taxes and minorities, tax rate was 25%, broadly in line with full year 2022. Reported net income for the period was EUR 1.135 billion. The delta is mainly attributable to capital gain on De Nora stake disposal and from Nucera IPO for EUR 76 million and EUR 28 million, respectively, ADNOC discount rate effect for EUR 65 million, counterbalanced by a write-down on the biomethane related to the waste business for EUR 186 million. As anticipated last year and in accordance with international market practice, we have defined a policy on adjustments. All write-downs and write-backs resulting from the impairment test in application to the international accounting standards, IAS 36, are considered within the special items and, therefore, excluded from the group adjusted results. In the annex, you can find the alternative performance indicator reconciliation. Let's now move to our international associates on Slide 11. SeaCorridor entered the perimeter in January 2023, as mentioned by Stefano. After the drop of Russian imports, it represents the first Italian import route with approximately 23 bcm in entry at Mazara. DESFA performed very well, driven by auction premium secured on LNG imports and on export capacity at the connection point with Bulgaria. Year-on-year comparisons also benefited from the pass-through mechanism of energy cost introduced in July 2022. Teréga's results are in line with 2022, thanks to higher volumes and more favorable storage product mix, which offset the expected decline of regulated allowed revenues. Looking at Interconnector, year-on-year comparison is affected by the positive revaluation recorded last year for EUR 31 million. Operating performance remained strong with profits capped by regulatory ceiling as in full year 2022 when results benefited from the recovery of past year's underperformance versus the profit cap. Capacity is booked at almost 50% until 2027, providing medium long-term visibility. TAP worked the full capacity also throughout 2023 and recorded higher net income, thanks to the CPI-linked tariff. TAP is working towards the minimum expansion of 1.2 bcm on year from 2026. ADNOC performance was in line with last year and expectations. EMG performance benefited by lower D&A due to CapEx phasing there being no significant impacts from the outbreak of the conflict in Israel. Moving to Austria. The negative contribution from TAG is due to the expiry of long-term contracts in 2022 and the drop of volumes after the outbreak of the Russian conflict, only partially offset by higher virtual bookings, approximately 90% to 95% of the capacity booked until 2025. GCA performance, on the other hand, benefits from the recovery of previous year's energy costs. The year-on-year comparison is also impacted by the impairment of EUR 25 million that we recorded in 2022. Turning to cash flow on Slide 12. Funds from operations for the period amounted to around EUR 2 billion, were counterbalanced by working capital absorption for around EUR 2.2 billion. Worth reminding, this is the unwind of the positive EUR 2.3 billion at the end of 2022. This was mainly driven by about EUR 1 billion absorption due to the balancing activity, which includes about EUR 500 million related to a reduction in balancing items payables, about EUR 400 million related to cash deposit decrease due to the gas price reduction and about EUR 300 million related to the full service net increase, partially counterbalanced by approximately EUR 100 million in positive settlement items, then about negative EUR 500 million of tariff-related items, mainly driven by additional tariff components payments shortening period for about EUR 100 million and net tariff overcharge for about EUR 150 million. And finally, about EUR 600 million negative of efficiency, net working capital absorption driven by the fiscal credits related to the super bonus revenues. Net investment for the period amount to EUR 2.231 billion, mainly related to net CapEx and CapEx payables for EUR 1.634 billion, the cash-out for the acquisition of SeaCorridor and BW Singapore, EUR 410 million and EUR 331 million, respectively, partially offset by the cash-in of EUR 144 million of the disposal of the stake in De Nora. Other outflows were related to the payment of the full year dividend for EUR 936 million, resulting in a change in net debt of about EUR 3.4 billion. Moving to Slide 13. Due to the previously commented cash flow evolution, the increase in debt amounted to EUR 3.4 billion, resulting in EUR 15.3 billion of net debt at the end of 2023, slightly better than the guidance of EUR 15.5 billion. The average cost of debt moved to 2%, while the fixed floating mix stands at 70%. Sustainable finance on committed financing up to 80%, reaching a target 3 years in advance, which has now been increased to 85% by 2027. Funding for the year was completed with the EU taxonomy aligned exchangeable transition months into Italgas shares issued in September for EUR 500 million. The remaining part of the year has been dedicated to prefunding activities for 2024, such as EUR 750 million of banking facilities and an EU taxonomy aligned transition bonds for EUR 650 million, both executed in the last month of the year. In relation to 2024, funding in the mid of February 2024, we have successfully issued EUR 1.5 billion of bonds in both green format for the financing of the EU taxonomy aligned projects and sustainability-linked format linked to Scope 1 and 2 and for the first time, also Scope 3. After the strategic plan presentation, rating agencies affirmed the rating and outlook of Snam, underpinning by ample flexibility against the threshold from the current rating positioning. Moving to closing remarks and guidance, and I'm now on Slide 14. Based on the solid set of 2023 results, we confirm with rising confidence in the guidance provided at strategic plan presentation last January. In 2024, CapEx will reach EUR 2.9 billion, mainly driven by gas infrastructure investments, which includes, among others, the start of the Adriatic Line CapEx and the mooring and connection investment for the second new FSRU [ Ravenna]. Tariff regulated asset base is up around 6% year-on-year at EUR 23.8 billion. We expect EBITDA of around EUR 2.7 billion, mainly driven by the weighted average cost of capital uplift, deflator impact, Ross effect on transport and RAB growth. We expect adjusted net income of around EUR 1.2 billion, ensuring a 4% annual CAGR from 2023 full year as EBITDA positive performance will partially counterbalance by higher D&A and financial expenses with lower contribution from associates. Net debt will increase to EUR 17.6 billion, including about EUR 300 million of cash absorption due to working capital and other financial investments for EUR 200 million. Expected average cost of debt is at 2.6%. Finally, the dividend policy going forward envisage minimum 3% dividend annual growth. And now, let me hand over to Stefano for the closing remarks.

Thank you. Thank you, Luca, again. In conclusion, as shared by the Board yesterday, we deem, we delivered another set of strong results with sound forthcoming growth. Future visibility is very high as regulation is set, large part of our investments are approved and ongoing, the macro environment is stabilizing and the European policies are evolving in line with our strategy. This allows us to offer to shareholders an attractive and sustainable remuneration while keeping a solid balance sheet and financial flexibility for potential M&A. We confirm a leadership position in sustainability while remaining committed to reducing our own carbon footprint in line with the Paris Agreement. Full digitalization of our assets and open innovation efforts to stay at the forefront of technological advances will support our strategy. And now, thank you very much for your attention, and we will be available to take your questions.

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Javier Suarez with Mediobanca.

Three questions. The first one is on your latest views on gas demand for 2024 and the impact on security of supply that you see for the country, given current geopolitical situation. Then the second question is on the contribution from the equity consolidated subsidiaries. This year has been EUR 230 million. Which are the moving pieces that you see into 2024 and your latest expectations for the contribution in 2024 of this subsidiary that I guess has been the surprise versus the expected numbers? And the third question is on the reasons behind the write-down on several biogas assets. You can explain us the reason for this write-down that has been amounted to something like EUR 180 million.

Thank you, Javier. I will address the first and the third and I will leave the second for Luca. The first one about the projections for the gas demand for the year. The projections -- the latest projections we have is around 64 bcm of gas. That is slightly above the total number of 2023, mainly related to the, let's say, civil consumption and some recovery on the industrial consumption. With respect to the security of supply, let me say, I mean, the good results that were posted on LNG imports will, let's say, extend to 2024, thanks to the fact that we will have the Piombino asset fully operating, as you know, also with full capacity booked for the year, and that will provide a contribution that on the solar year will be around 4.5 bcm. The second is the fact that we have -- thanks to the diversification of the different sources, we have reduced the Russian gas contribution down below to the 5%. So we don't expect for the year any, let's say, additional implications. So if I have to say, I see good balancing between supply and demand on one side. And on the other side, we have done a lot of work on storage. As I said during my presentation, also in the first month of the year, thanks also to the, let's say, weather conditions and the dynamic of the demand, we were able to offer flexibility on storage capacity and the different players, different shippers leveraged upon this opportunity on one side reinjecting gas, on the other side, let's say, buying the capacity for 2024, 2025 deliveries. So that will help and will support, let's say, an outcome at the end of the winter with more than 5 working gas available in the storages. That means including also the storage capacity and overall fulfillment, that will be above 50%, in line with the final result we had last year that, if you remember, had a very positive effect, both on price volatility during summer and the injection phase that was much, much more smooth and much, much more flexible. And that, by the way, will give also some contribution on CO2 emissions. With respect to the biomethane write-down, I think -- not I think, I mean, the main reasons were related by, let me say, 3 aspects, all in connection with the feedstock -- the FSRU feedstock, FORSU feedstock, that is the organic waste to be fed into the waste plants. That means that the write-down refers to waste biomethane plant. So the first one is global volumes available. I mean, as you know, our biomethane portfolio is pretty spread on North and South and Central part of Italy. And I have to say that the balancing between supply and demand on the organic waste is very different between the 3 parts of the country. I might say that in the North, there is an excess capacity, Central part of Italy is imbalanced, in the Southern part we are short. That means that for those assets who are in the North, there is pre-competition on the availability of the FORSU, the organic waste, and that is reflected on prices, of course, mainly for those assets who are merchants. The third is related to the fact that the quality of this organic waste is not exactly the one we were expecting in some parts for some plants. And therefore, we had then higher volume of, let's say, waste scraps that need to be disposed. And as you know, Italy is short on disposal capacity, both in waste-to-energy and landfills and that is again reflected on higher prices for -- as a cost for disposing the scraps. And I see this as a structural element going forward. And of course, that impacted the profitability of some of the plants. Finally, there is one of the plants that had some, let's say, technical problems that will take time to be solved. And that is, in a nutshell, the reason behind. Luca?

Yes. On the second question, Javier, which refers to basically our associates' contribution to net income. Clearly, as you pointed out, in [ 2023 ], it has been exceptionally good with EUR 350 million overall contribution. What do we expect for 2024, clearly is, let me say, a contribution which is below 2023 in the region of all our associates of around EUR 60 million to EUR 70 million. And this is driven because of clearly the situation in Austria where a lower contribution from TAG due to the expiry of main long-term contracts in 2023 and the lower contribution expected from GCA due to the full recovery of past year energy cost in 2023. As far as Teréga also, which had an exceptional contribution in '23, we expect lower contribution in 2024 in the region of EUR 10 million, while the auction premiums that we've seen for DESFA in 2023 will not be replicated at the same extent in 2024. Therefore, overall contribution expected for 2024, our international associates portfolio is down in the -- expected down in the region of EUR 60 million to EUR 70 million.

The next question is from Jose Ruiz with Barclays.

Just two questions. One clarification, and sorry to ask this, but the fiscal credits you're not benefiting because you have securitized them? I'm trying to understand why the tax rate is not coming down. And the second question is, if you do mark-to-market, where would be the WACC for 2025?

Okay, Jose, this is Luca. On the last question, mark-to-market, the WACC today is in line with our expectation of the business plan, i.e., down 20 basis points on transport and about 30 basis points down for LNG and storage, which is exactly what we have in our business plan assumptions. As far as the first question, fiscal credits, I mean, they do not have an impact on the tax rate. These are cash items that will be recovered in the next 3 to 4 years for us. At the moment, we have EUR 1.5 billion in terms of stock, and we will recover in the region of EUR 400 million to EUR 450 million per year. But again, the cash item will not have an effect on the tax rate.

The next question is from Bartek Kubicki with SocGen.

A few things, please. On the nonregulated side, if you look at the energy efficiency, you are talking about EUR 1.2 billion of backlog. I just wonder what kind of energy efficiency products are these, given the fact that the super bonus has ended? And when will it translate into revenues? So what's the sort of duration of the order backlog? And what's the profitability of the order backlog versus the profitability you have been earning on energy efficiency until now? Second thing, we see a contraction in the risk rates in Italy, the bond yields. I wonder what was the translation of that into your cost of debt outlook for 2024 and overall for your cost of debt outlook for the whole plan? And maybe last, just a curiosity and clarification on the biomethane impairment. Is it related to the assets you have built? Or is it related to the assets you have bought?

Again, I will take the first and the third, and Luca will address the second. About the nonregulated energy performance contract, I mean the backlog refers to multiyear contracts that are basically with, let's say, public entities. For instance, we have a clear leadership in the health sector in managing the, let's say, energy services for hospitals. And the other part relates to long-term energy contracts with industrial players in the sense that we manage their, let's say, [ self ] production and the energy supply and consumption for the different sites. The duration -- the average duration of this backlog is about 7 years. The profitability is pretty different, of course, since it depends on those contracts, the profitability in those contracts is related to the investments you have to carry out to set up the service. Some of them includes only upgrades on the energy efficiency facilities -- of the facilities. And in other cases, you have also the investment in the production, for instance, installing solar panels, installing cogeneration units or other facilities for the -- for part of the self-generation. Of course, that, of course, drives the profitability of the different contracts. The strategy for the company is to progressively offset the, let's say, windfall contribution that came from the super eco bonus, with these kind of contracts. So this year, we are targeting an EBITDA contribution that will be lower by -- with respect to last year, by roughly EUR 30 million. And in the forthcoming years, we will progress recovering -- fully recovering that gap. With respect to the biomethane, those adjustment is referred to those assets that were bought.

And then on the third question on cost of debt and the evolution of risk-free rate. Yes, overall risk-free rate for Italian government bonds has come down slightly, but overall interest rates, the euro reference swap rates actually has gone up. So our projection currently is still a cost of debt for 2024 of around 2.6%, which basically means an increase in net financial charges of about EUR 170 million vis-a-vis 2023. Clearly, what we are working on is trying to reduce this increase. So we might have some better, at the end of the year, performance on cost of debt. As far as the outer year of the plan, as you might recall, we have the cost of debt expected by 2027 at 2.9%. The average over the plan is again 2.6%. And again, our job is in trying to minimize the increase in interest rates on this cost of debt, which, as you know, is for us really the drag on net income accretion.

The next question is from Stefano Gamberini with Equita.

Few questions from my side. First of all, regarding Edison storage. Could you give us some, we can say, color because now you are in exclusive negotiations with Edison and where we could expect a final deal? Then as regard the situation of biomethane, you said there are some problem with the feedstock. There are some problem with the available feedstock in the South. So do you think that there is a risk of the, we can say, quite positive projections of new plants that should arrive in Italy and Europe in general from this kind of green gas or not, because if I'm not wrong, you are the first player in biomethane in Italy? Then the 2 quick questions, if I may. The first regarding your international associates. Could you give us the RAB and the net debt in Teréga and TAG in order to have an idea for the valuation of these assets? And the second question regarding the recent talks in Germany where the regulator want to introduce stranded depreciations for distribution gas networks assuming the closing in 2045. I don't know if something is also on the table in Italy and if you can give us your view of the risk that you see or the opportunities on the other side related to hydrogen for your networks.

Okay. Let me start with the first, Edison Stoccaggio. As you read from the official statement, we are in the exclusive negotiation. We started, a week ago, the due diligence phase. We jointly agreed with Edison to target the end of June as, let's say, time for accomplish all the activities we have to do, including the negotiation of the sales and purchase agreement. With respect to biomethane, let me -- if I'm not being clear, the imbalancing between available capacity and demand is in the North. I mean we have more plants concentrated in the North whilst in the South, there is a clear shortage. So in that part of the country, let's say, market conditions are much, much more favorable with respect to the Northern part. With respect to your question about the projections and volumes, let me say that the majority of the contribution in the biomethane development will come from the agri plants, on the conversion of the biogas plants into biomethane and that is also the business area in where we will invest the large majority of the investments we have set up in the business plan. And that is, I think, the area where you have the most favorable returns and market conditions. With respect to Germany and projection in Germany, let me say, I mean this discussion on the acceleration on depreciation is just, I think, some talks that are ongoing in Germany with respect primarily to distribution. I think the importance of the transportation, specifically in Italy, where we have a very spread regional transportation industry is pretty different. First, for the reason you said, I mean, the possibility to reconvert part of the infrastructure for hydrogen transportation on one side. On the other side, the development of the biomethane production that in Italy is by 80% connected to the regional transportation network we manage is another important item that will make -- that will extend the life of this infrastructure. And I think also, there is one thought we have to bear in mind, I mean, the nature of the hydrogen infrastructure will be more driven on the point of consumption related to the hard-to-abate industries. So we'll be much more concentrated with respect to the gas network that is much more spread covering all the territory. So that is from the strategic standpoint. These are the features that makes the transportation different from distribution and specifically the situation different in Italy with respect to Germany. And that, I think, is the answer. I'll turn to Luca for the international associates and the numbers on Teréga.

Yes. Thanks, Stefano. As far as Teréga, which is [ GRTgaz ], we have basically a net debt at the end of 2023 of EUR 1.7 billion and an estimated RAB of EUR 3.2 billion.

Do you have the same figures for TAG or not?

Sorry, Stefano. But for TAG, as you know, we are currently under discussion with the regulator for the regulatory review, which should come throughout this year. Therefore, the regulated asset base is a sensitive item.

[ Ms. Pezzoli ], gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time.

So thank you. Thank you all for taking our presentation, and let's see you soon, and Happy Easter.

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over. You may disconnect your telephones.