SNGN Romgaz SA (SNG) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to our conference call for discussing the preliminary results recorded by Romgaz Group in 2024. After introducing the speakers, Mr. Razvan Popescu, Chief Executive Officer, will make an opening speech. Thereafter, the Q&A session will take place. Please be advised that this conference is being recorded for internal purposes. On behalf of the company, the following speakers attend this conference: Mr. Razvan Popescu, Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Aristotel Jude, Deputy Chief Executive Officer; Ms. Gabriela Tranbitas, Chief Financial Officer; Mr. Ion Foida, Production Department Director; Mr. Radu Moldovan, Energy Trading Director and our Investor Relations Department. Now I would like to give the floor over to Mr. Razvan Popescu, who will open the conference call with an opening speech.

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining our conference call to discuss the results recorded by the Romgaz Group in the full year and the fourth quarter of 2024. Today, we published our preliminary consolidated report for 2024, which comprises the key economic and financial results of the group. Also, an overall presentation is available on our website in the Investors section. I would like to take this opportunity to address certain aspects regarding the market context last year compared to the previous one. According to our estimates, natural gas consumption in Romania increased by 3.5% last year to 106 terawatts hour with gas imports slightly up to 18% weight in total gas consumption. As a result of the current regulation in force, the Romanian Commodities Exchange still recorded a weak liquidity in 2024 and the average of wholesale prices declined by over 40% year-on-year according to our computation. These prices were considered as of the month of delivery for the transactions concluded on this market segment. The average monthly reference gas price on the Central European gas hub adjusted downwards as well in 2024 according to data provided by the regulator, the National Authority for regulation of the mining oil and CO2 geological storage activities. In respect to the fiscal environment in the gas and energy sector in Romania, Romia's activities continue to be impacted by the Government Emergency Ordinance #27 effective as of 1st of April 2022 and subject to subsequent amendments. We would like to remind that starting with 1st of April 2024, producers are selling their gas to households, suppliers of households, heat producers and their suppliers for the production of thermal energy for households at the regulated price of RON 120 per megawatt hour. The previous regulated value was RON 150 applied during 2023 and the first quarter of 2024. Also, for the gas sold at the regulated prices payment of the windfall profit tax is exempt while gas royalties are computed based on these regulated prices instead of the CEGH reference prices. Regarding the operational and financial performance recorded by the group in 2024, we can mention the following aspects. Our natural gas production reached 4.96 bcm, elevated by 3.6% compared to the 4.79 bcm recorded in the previous year. We achieved this important performance through steady efforts aiming to consolidate the potential of our onshore production, development of production infrastructure and connection of new wells to this infrastructure. This allowed to stream into production 9 new wells generating an additional production of 75.4 million cubic meters a year. The reactivation of 164 wells through specific investment works that added 264 million cubic meters a year. The continuous rehabilitation projects of our main mature gas fields that aim to maximize production and our recovery factors. Also, we finalized 9 surface facilities and performed a completion reactivation and repairs for a total number of 201 wells in the last year. For the fourth quarter alone, we can mention that gas production reached 1.29 bcm, higher by 1.4% than the 1.27 bcm production in the last quarter of 2023 and significantly up by 8.9% compared to the previous quarter. Total revenues from gas sold stood at RON 6.58 billion but they adjusted with 15.2% from 2023. This was mainly the result of a lower average selling price, while gas deliveries recorded a 1% advance reaching 4.6 bcm in 2024 compared to 4.5 bcm in 2023. We maintained a strong position on the Romanian gas market. According to our assessment, Romgaz continued to rank as a leading gas supplier in Romania with a substantial contribution of 58% in total gas deliveries. Also, we are strongly positioned in gas consumption cover from domestically produced gas, holding a significant share of 48% last year according to our estimates. Revenues from storage services advanced by 3.3% year-on-year from RON 552 million to RON 570 million in 2024, with withdrawal revenues recording the highest growth rate, 59% and capacity reservation having the largest share, almost 60%. The electricity production stood at 80-gigawatt hour in 2024, but it was down 8.6% compared to the year of 2023. Thus, the old power plant, which only operate with 1 unit contribute to the security of supply in the energy market of Romania. Revenues from electricity declined by 7.7% from RON 407 million in '23 to RON 376 million in 2024 on lower production, but with less than half of it sold at the cap prices of RON 450 per megawatt hour in Q1 and RON 400 per megawatt hour starting from Q2 2024 in line with the government ordinance. Overall in 2024, Romgaz Group obtained total revenues of RON 7.93 billion, down 12% compared to the RON 9 billion in the previous year. This resulted from the evolution of our gas and electricity sales during the year, as we mentioned earlier. Regarding the expenses, the windfall tax increased significantly to RON 1.2 billion from RON 0.89 billion in 2023, mostly as a result of lower gas volumes sold at the regulated price. Altogether, the 3 main taxes, windfall tax, royalties and the duty to the energy transition fund increased by 22% year-on-year and represents a significant expense of RON 1.82 billion last year compared to the RON 1.49 billion in 2023. Bottom line, we reported a historical annual net profit of RON 3.22 billion, higher by 14.5% than in 2023. We should mention that the solidarity contribution was not due anymore in 2024 compared to the significant expense of RON 1.69 billion recorded in 2023, thus boosting net profitability that year. All profitability rates were substantial.  Net profit margin rose to a historically high annual value of 40.6% and both EBITDA and EBIT margins continue to be robust of 51.6% and 43.9% for the fourth quarter alone, we can mention the following main performance. Total revenues increased by 4.9%. Net profit advanced at MXN 946 million, exceeded by 47% year-on-year and at a historical high for that period. We would like to emphasize that net profit in the last quarter of 2024 exceeded by 66%, the quarterly average of the past 3 years.  Regarding CapEx, Romgaz Group invested a consolidated amount of PHP 3.17 billion in 2024, surging from PHP 1.2 billion in 2023. Investment of Romgaz La Limited that represents PR 2.18 billion, the subsidiary which invested in the Neptun Deep and the CapEx of our UGS subsidiary of RON 55 million and Romgaz own investments of RON 936 million.  With regards to our flagship project, the Neptune Deep, the progress achieved in 2024 was exceptional with all major execution contracts awarded and 90% of the execution budget committed. We can emphasize the following milestones achieved last year. In May, we marked the steel cutting ceremony in [Karimun], Indonesia.  In October, construction was started for the platform topsides in Indonesia for the jacket in Italy and the fabrication of the field support vessel hub in Poland and the onshore natural gas metering station in Romania. In November, Transocean Bares, the mobile offshore drilling unit arrived in Constanta to prepare for the drilling operations. As a result of the significant development, Neptune is on track to start drilling the first well in '25 and deliver the first gas in 2027.  Another ongoing investment is the CCGT power plant in for which in '24, we perform part of the remaining contract works. They included foundation for various equipment, water pumping station and lighting systems. At the end of January, the total progress of the investment of the turnkey project consisting of the execution of the initial work contract plus the execution of the new works contract stood at approximately 97%.  The total progress of the investment projects related only to the new EPC contract, which started August 1, 2023 stood at 81% at the 31st of January 2025. Delays were encountered due to negotiations with the main subcontractors from the old contract for their comeback on the site in order to complete the works. Contractor mobilization was also far below our expected level.  The resources involved accounted for less than 70% compared to those undertaken with the execution program submitting through the tender, while the execution step was deemed insufficient in the construction site, thus causing delays in civil, thermomechanical and electric construction works.  Nevertheless, at the date of the conference call, the deadline to finalize the entire remaining works and to put into production the entire capacity of the new plant still remains 2nd of June 2025. We would mention also a very important achievement of last year, our successful inaugural bond issuance under the EMTN program of EUR 500 million. The bond is rated [indiscernible] by Fitch.  The issue offers an annual coupon of 4.75% and matures in 5 years on the 7th of October 2029. Subscription took place in a single day on September 30 on international markets and investor demand was 10x higher of premier on the corporate bond market in Romania. The bonds have also been listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange on November 19 of last year.  Regarding the rating assigned to Romgaz, following a similar action on the sovereign rating of Romania, Fitch has revised the outlook from stable to negative and reaffirmed the long-term issuer default rating at BBB- on the 17th of December. According to Fitch, the rating reflects Romgaz dominant position in Romanian gas market, upstream production growth potential from the Neptune Deep and Cara reservoir development and a conservative financial policy. The inaugural credit rating was granted on the 22nd of May last year.  Rom ranks as a blue chip on the Bucharest Stock Exchange, offering investors very important trading opportunities, one of the largest domestic stocks with a current market capitalization of EUR 4.6 billion and the third most traded stock with an average daily volume of 458,000 shares.  At the end of this presentation, I would also like to mention that on the 31st of December, our GDRs were delisted from the London Stock Exchange as a result of the extremely weak trading liquidity on this market share will continue to be traded on the Bucharest Stock Exchange, maintaining the company's possibility to benefit from alternative financing sources and offering investors the chance to take part in the project developed by the company and its partners. With this, I would like to close our presentation, and thank you for your attention.

[Operator Instructions]  We received written questions. We will start with the first one from Mr [indiscernible] can you confirm the news that Romgaz would like to buy the biggest chemical plant fertilizer plant from the country?

No, we cannot confirm the news. Romgaz is in constant analysis regarding its diversification potential. Romgaz is always looking at synergies that it might have from the gas produced from internal production and the gas that will be produced from the Neptune Deep. Indeed, we are looking to evaluate the fertilizer market in Romania and evaluate the potential that Romgaz could have in entering that market.

Another question from Mr. [indiscernible]. For the future, can you take some measures to avoid the situation that happened at Depogas in November last year?

There will be an analysis done by Romgaz management surrounding the issues that happened at Depogas. That will happen in the next month, and then we will see what happened and if there will be measures to be taken in order to not have that type of situation, they will be taken. But Depogas is acting as an independent company. Romgaz is acting with respect to the legislation and cannot interfere in the management of Depogas. I think the measures have to be taken on a legislative level, so such things will not happen. But based on the analysis that we will make, if the measures can be taken by the Romgaz management, they will be taken.

Another question from Mr. [indiscernible].  Have you managed to successfully conclude the tender for the ERP invoices to residential clients?

No. The procurement process was prolonged. The bidders asked for a prolongation of the terms, and we envisage that it will be finalized in the next 2 months.

We continue with questions from Mr. [indiscernible].  Do you intend to sell natural gas to the owner of the Mintia plant?

This is an internal decision that has to be taken in conformity with our commercial policy.

And another question. Do you intend to increase storage capacity at Depogas through future investments?

Yes, the investment in the storage capacity is already being done. Depogas is doing this investment on its own. They have the European funding part of the European funding and the capacity will be increased.

We will answer the questions now from Ms. Daniela Mandru.

The first question regards the last quarter's results. I must recognize I missed the results based on the income tax. So what I've seen, I've seen that income tax was a positive figure instead of a negative figure, if you can explain this. So let's take the questions one by one if it's possible.

Thank you for your question. The income tax appears as positive as an income due to the deferred tax recorded in Q4. Also in Q4, we had some benefits from the legislation. In 2020, a government ordinance was issued, granting some, let's say, discounts if equity is increased from 1 year to the next. So based on this ordinance, we had a 15% decrease in the tax. Also, we have tax benefits stemming from the legal reserve and the reserve for reinvested profit.

Okay. Good. Now can you disclose in the last quarter, the windfall tax paid on electricity sales? I'm referring to the RON figure. I suppose it is small, but I want to know it.

RON 23.6 million.

RON 23.6 million is bigger than expected, okay.

This is for the year.

For the year, for the year, okay. Makes sense. Now I suppose that in the last quarter, you sold gas at a regulated price. The volumes stood at 7.5 terawatts. It's correct. I think that was the last figure you announced to us. What I would like to know what would be the value for the first quarter of this year? And if it is possible, if you have an estimate for the full year 2025 for the volumes sold at regulated prices.

We cannot have for 2025 volumes sold regulated prices because the ordinance just came out, and we do not have the volumes. We only have the volumes subject to the first quarter of 2025.

Yes. Okay. Good. And what is the level of this?

It's around 56%, 57%. On the first quarter?

Yes.

The first quarter is 70%, on the fourth quarter is [indiscernible].

But what I do not understand because, let's say, I'm trying to make an estimate. If you compare 2024 with 2023, you will see that these volumes at the regulated prices decreased significantly. What I do not understand practically, the consumers are the same. So the fact is that it's coming from the fact that they consume less?

The estimates that were made and the gas that was allocated in 2024 versus '23 was less, yes, at regulated prices because probably the stocks that remained throughout the last winter, the winter being a much warmer one, the stocks being higher, there was gas available for the supplier for the households and the power and the thermal producers.

Okay. So for this year, what...

It's hard to extrapolate. I have right now an expectation given the level of deposits and given the consumption that happened during this winter. It's hard to extrapolate.

But your first guess, what would be the volumes will increase this year or only decrease compared with 2024?

We cannot give an estimate.

Okay. Good. Now so I understood that you do not confirm there are more acquisitions. What about the supply business? This year, you will start implementing this business segment? The context is that I read in the media that Romgaz will enter the supply business.

We are in the supply business already. We are looking at the final end consumer. That's why we started the procurement process for an integrated ERP system, similar with the hydroelectric one. And we are aiming to start by the end of this year to supply the household.

So at the end of 2025, so not during the year?

During the year is the same as the end of 2025. It depends on the timing.

Okay. And do you have a target, for example, in terms of market shares of total volumes to be sold?

It's difficult to have right now a guess because we are also will act under the ordinance regarding the supply business. So we have to check in order to have such, let's say, guess. First of all, we need to see what quantities will be allocated under the ordinance. It's a work in progress. It's too early to tell right now given the fact that we have not finalized the procurement process for the acquisition of the software.

Okay. I think you didn't answer the question regarding the volumes of the regulated volumes for the first quarter of this year.

70%.

70, okay. Now let's look. I have several questions regarding the outlook. I know you want to stabilize the production at 2024 levels. This will remain in place, this target or we should expect to go with the production declining by 2.5% according to your official strategy?

That will be given to the market at the moment we publish our budget for 2025. It is in the works right now. In the strategy, we aim to have a maximum decline of production of 2.5%.

Maximum. And in terms of power sales, yes, I know it's all around going around the year. Do you have some estimates? Can you guide us the power sales in terms of volume will be higher or lower compared with...

Budget that we will publish, we will guide you there.

What would be, this is a recommendation. What would help us, for example, what I don't have in terms of storage business, maybe it would be and will not be a hard task for you to disclose also the reservation capacity on a quarterly basis. Yes, we can imply it because we have the tariff, but it would be helpful to describe also the capacity reservation volumes in your trading statement and in your report.

So we already tried to review, you saw, we try to have a new way of presenting the 2024 results to give more color to the investors. So we would appreciate having a feedback of the new presentation that we have published and also you can send an e-mail suggesting this and of course, we'll analyze it and respond accordingly.

But still, this is my last question. Over the years, what I've noted that constantly, Romgaz is giving budgeted figures significantly below the actuals. Let's take last year results and your budget. Why is happening this? And why you can't budget something more closer to the reality?

Because there is a lot of uncertainty in the gas selling prices. There was a lot of uncertainty when we budgeted last year. We didn't know the allocation of the, let's say, gas that was being sold on the free market and that was sold at regulated prices. It was very, very hard to make a budget and let's say, shoot into the unknown because we didn't know how much would be allocated for us. It was also, let's say, a small surprise for you because we were expecting a bit more to be allocated on the regulated market. So, this is something that is not in our power to budget perfectly. We are trying to be as close as possible to the truth. Also on the CapEx side, we are trying to be as close as possible, but there are some things that are not in our control that, let's say, change throughout the year, and we always have to be reactive.

And now you mentioned CapEx. Yes, you say to me that the CapEx will be disclosed in the budget.

Next year is going to be at around EUR 1 billion with, let's say, around EUR 200 million in individual production to keep the production at this level and to invest in the drilling and around, let's say, EUR 700 million to EUR 800 million in the project. So this is basically the breakdown.

And this year, you will issue more bonds?

Probably, yes. On the context?

So it will be a second tranche of EUR 500 million?

Probably yes, EUR 500 million. But as I said before, these are things that will be decided in due time. We'll see also how the market reacts. We'll see what the market appetite is. This is not something that we can say right now that is going to be a 5-, 7- or 10-year point.

This is my last recommendation and my last note on this conference because I don't want to [indiscernible] the discussions. Another recommendation, what I noticed in your budget, when you published the budget, the problem is that you gave figures, and you do not disclose operational things, operational facts. So for me as analysts, it doesn't matter if you say to me that, I don't know, an expense will decrease or increase by 20%. I can do it by myself this computation, yes. But to come with explanations and in terms of revenues and in terms of windfall taxes, you should disclose your assumptions regarding the regulated volumes sold, your assumptions regarding production, your assumptions regarding the sales volumes sold to third parties, please.

We'll take note of what we said, but even if we have these assumptions, it will not mean that they will be correct because they are only assumptions.

We know we are analysts. We know this yes, but we can see what the company is thinking about the future.

As an analysis, you may well know when you budget something at the beginning of the year, even if you look at the FX and especially the commodity market, it's very hard to pinpoint even the average price or the average level of any type of financial situation up until the end of the year. That is what we would like to do.

We continue with Ms. Andrei who has raised hand.

Few questions. First, regarding taxation. You mentioned in the report the recalculation of royalties to the lower concession level. So, if I understand correctly, the increase in royalties from 2023 does not apply to your existing concessions. Is it right? And regarding the windfall tax on electricity, in November, it was declared unconstitutional. So, did Romgaz continue to pay this tax after November? And will it pay it until June 2025 according to the emergency ordinance that was recently adopted?

Regarding royalties, yes, the higher level of royalties does not apply to existing concessions. As for the windfall tax, it's correct. It was declared unconstitutional, but the court did not publish until today, it's reasoning on why they issued such a decision. So according to the law, the tax is still in force, and we have to pay it.

So basically, when the court publishes the motivation, you will not pay it anymore?

We will have to see how the wording will sound.

And until then, you pay it. Does the court have a precise time frame when it should be published?

I think they do -- I'm not exactly sure what the time is, but I'm pretty sure it's over you.

And regarding dividend perspectives for this year, you have a record high profitability, but last year, you guided a lower dividend payout. Do you maintain your previous guidance regarding a low dividend payout?

The dividend payout has to be balanced given the fact that indeed, yes, we do have a high profitability, but also we have the highest CapEx for 2025 and 2026 in the history of the company. So we need to look at all the debt metrics and try and be as, let's say, balanced as possible in our approach. Of course, there will be a dividend, but that has to go hand-in-hand with our investment policy for at least the next 3 years.

Is a balanced closer to 50% payout or closer to 20% as it was last year?

We'll see when we make a proposition.

Okay. And again...

We do not have -- right now, I cannot answer, but for sure, it will be in that region that you mentioned.

Okay. And again, regarding Iernut power plant. So at this point, is the plant ready for commercial production after June? Because I suppose up to this point, testing should have already begin in order to be prepared for sales.

Yes. Some testing has indeed begun regarding the pressure test on the power plant. We are operating the old power plant for as long as possible. So we are trying to still operate the old power plant for as long as possible as the new plant will come into force. But as I have stated earlier, the EPC contractor is having delays in implementation from what we have understood also some financial issues. But of course, we are trying to mitigate all these issues and to keep the term of putting it into production this summer.

And again, regarding Iernut power plant, should we expect production to begin at full capacity? Or this should be phased out process?

It's going to be a phased out process for sure. So we do not expect to have it at full capacity from June.

We continue with Mr. Oleg Galbur.

I will start with a few follow-up questions. First of all, you referred quite often to the budget for this year. When will the budget be published, please?

We will convene the shareholders at the middle of March.

Sorry, I cannot hear you for whatever reason.

Can you hear me?

No, I cannot. Can you hear -- I can hear you, frankly speaking.

Can you hear us?

Yes, but barely.

We will convene the shareholders' meeting on the middle of March. So mid-March, we will convene the shareholder meeting in order to approve the budget.

Okay. Sorry, I guess I have some technical issue on my side. I will put my question in writing.

Mr. [indiscernible] please you may address your question.

First, kind of a follow-up on the Iernut plant. What is your plan with the old plant? Would you like to shut it down when the new one will be operational? Or is it possible to parallel run the old and the new facilities?

No, it is not possible to parallel both of them. The moment the new power plant will come into production, the old power plant will be put out of production completely.

And what is your plan at the moment? When do you want to run the new facility? And when do you want to shut the old one parallel?

So this is an ongoing situation given the, let's say, the finalization of the new year, we are trying to keep the old one in function as much as possible given the situation in the Romanian National Grid. So it is very important to be kept into function, and we'll try as much as possible to keep it operational.

Okay. My second question would be regarding the production in 2025. Where do you see the production to change from the level of 2024? And if you can share anything on the sales side, what is the proportion of households versus the free market? So how do you see that?

It's very hard to give. So you are talking about the gas production.

Yes. Yes, correct.

So our strategy is to keep gas production and not to have a decline of production more than 2.5%. 2024 was an exceptional year where we put into function more than 9 new wells. We are drilling in the Caragele field, but we are -- and we will try to keep production at, let's say, a level close to the one that was in 2024. Given the breakdown of gas that will sell to under regulated prices, this will probably be issued by the national transport system by mid-March. So by mid-March, we should know the, let's say, the proportion of gas being sold under regulated prices and the proportion of gas that will be left for us to be sold on the free market. It's very hard to pinpoint right now. My colleagues are doing the computation in order to have, let's say, a more balanced budget and as close as possible to the reality.

Okay. And the last one on my side, your dividend, you mentioned that you are still working on this. When shall we expect to come up with a proposal?

So after we publish the audited annual report, I think somewhere in the beginning of May, we'll issue our dividend policy for 2024.

We received the written question from Mr. Oleg Galbur. When will the 2025 budget will be published? What level of income tax rate do you expect in 2025? How many terawatts does 70% represent? What was your realized gas price in Q4? Do you have a view on the potential extension of energy price regulation in Romania?

Regarding the 2025 budget, as we said earlier, we will convene the shareholders in mid-March for them to meet on -- in mid-April. So in mid-April, the shareholders will approve the budget and immediately, it will be published. As for the level of income tax rate, we expect it to be around 16%, the legal rate according to the Romanian fiscal code.

The average selling price for the fourth quarter of 2024, our estimate is around RON 136 per megawatt hour.

Regarding your question, how many terawatt hours does 70% represent? 70% represents 10 terawatt hours. Regarding your question, do you have a view on the potential extension of energy price regulation in Romania? According to the information we have, we didn't see the ordinance published yet. The price regulation on energy should extend until June 2025.

So for gas, it has been extended yesterday for 1 year. So it will be up to the end of March 2026, and it was extended for electricity for 3 months. So it's been, let's say, a bit of a disconnect between electricity and gas. But we have not seen the final wording of the ordinance. We're waiting it to be published officially, so we can do our computation.

Ms. Daniela Mandru, you may now address your question.

Regarding the gas prices for this year for the free market, can you share with us what is your view on the price levels increase, decrease compared with last year? I'm referring to the free market. And probably you already know, I suppose that you already sold a lot forward.

Not really. We have sold some quantities forward, but we have been waiting for the ordinance. Also, our commercial policy is based on market indices, not only on the Romanian market, but also on the TTF market segment. This is how we build our policy. Of course, there was volatility in the beginning of this year. There was high volatility. There was a disconnect between BRM and the other markets when the weather was very, very cold. But if you look at 2024, you would see that the BRM market on the day-ahead basis traded for more than 300 days below the TTF and TEG market in the range from 10% to 15% discount. So the market prices that we are viewing this year, given the depletion of the gas storages throughout Europe, throughout Romania could support the price at higher levels.

So it would be correct to assume that this discount to TEG will continue?

It's possible. It depends also on the weather. It depends also on production. It depends on the imports that will stem from LNG. We'll see. The market is quite volatile and you saw that it's news it's very, let's say, reactive to any type of news surrounding trade tariffs in the U.S. and also surrounding the level of storages that will be impacted by the European Union.

Okay. And another question regards to the potential impairment. For example, Petrom in the last quarter of last year booked impairments related to the oil and gas assets, mentioning that the main reasoning is the increase of the costs going forward due to inflation and so on and nothing changing the long-term value of prices. So should we expect an impairment this year also from the part of Romgaz?

We will run an impairment test. We will see what the results show and if any impairment is indeed needed.

Are there any other questions? Please feel free to address them. If there are no further questions, we will conclude this conference call. Thank you for your questions. If you need further information, please contact our Investor Relations team. The conference is now concluded. On behalf of Romgaz team, thank you for attending today's conference call. Goodbye.