Solaria Energía y Medio Ambiente, S.A. (SLR) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Solaria 2024 First Half Results webcasts. My name is David Guengant, the Head of IR of Solaria. I am joined today with Arturo Diaz-Tejeiro Larranaga, our Chief Executive Officer. During this call, we'll discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. During this presentation, we will begin with an overview of the results and the main development during the period given by our CEO, Arturo Diaz Tejeiro. And following this, we'll move on to the Q&A session. I would also like to highlight that you have to submit all your questions via the web. Thank you very much again, and I will now hand over the word to Arturo.

Thank you, David, and thank you to everyone joining this conference call. Of course, we are going to start -- as always, we are going to present results, numbers and our strategy and we will move extremely fast to the Q&A session, and we will discuss details during the Q&A season. Of course, module price reduction continues. It's crazy because last acquisition of module that we have done, it was closed with a price of EUR 0.075 per watt that is a record of price. Our estimation is that price of modules will continue decreasing during this quarter, especially, probably, we are going to see prices with less of EUR 0.07. That is record. It'd something that supports a lot of our CapEx, our future CapEx and actual CapEx and of course, as you know, today, Solaria is one of the key players from a CapEx perspective because our actual CapEx is less than 0.37. And probably, you will see a strong reduction of CapEx in the next quarter, as I said with modules and construction process. Everywhere debt, important point is something macro, but interest rate today is better. Of course, if you compare with last quarter, today, we are in a better situation. Hopefully, something that will improve in next quarters and it's something that will push our accounts because reduction in cost of debt is something that affect directly to our profits. And the numbers, numbers, energy generation. You know that the second quarter of this year was one of the weakness quarter from prices point of view, electricity prices point of view. Even with this situation, we have maintained really good levels of sales, EBITDA and profits with small reduction on sales of less than 2% and in EBITDA of less than 5%. I think that our business model maintains the resilient capacity to give good numbers even in scenarios of extremely low prices like the second quarter. Third quarter was extremely good according with our view. I think that from sales, EBITDA and net profits, we will present in 1.5 months, but results are in line with our estimation and third quarter was really good from a price point of view. And I think that in this presentation and during this presentation, the most important -- the things that are the most important are the new business that we are opening, the new business vision that Solaria today has. It's a new business vision like an infrastructure player with different business associated with infrastructure activities. And I want to mention, especially the data centers business. As you know, a few quarters ago, we decided to vet strongly for this activity, the data center activity. We have studied all the market worldwide. During the last quarter, I've been involved in conversations with all the key players, not only in Europe and United States, I have been traveling and I have been studying the situation in different countries of data centers. The growth of data center is incredible. You know it's associated with artificial intelligence applications that at the end of the day are making a revolution around the movement of the numbers that all of us we use. The key point for us is the consumption of energy. It's something that is changing completely the situation of the energy markets, especially in the United States today, but it's something that is affecting today to Europe and probably in the short term will affect serially Europe, the consumption of energy associated with data center is incredible and growing per quarter. And I think that is something that in the next 5, 10 years, we will see a strong evolution. And we decided a few quarters ago to bet strongly for this activity to open a new brand or a new company associated with this and to start to talk with all the key players in the market. The first point to discuss is where we are in the data center business. We are player that supply energy infrastructure to the data center companies. Our job here, our work, the work that we are going to develop for them during the next quarter is like supplier of electricity, renewable energy electricity, supplier of electrical infrastructure, connection points, substations, grid, all the different technical details that they will need to expand and construct data centers massively in Europe, especially, obviously, like Spain, South of Europe, but not including only South of Europe, Spain, Portugal, Germany, especially. And we bet, we decide to enter strongly. We start to book connection points on the grid. Today, we have a good amount of consumer connection points on the Spanish grid close to 300 megawatts. That is not bad. And probably, we think that for the end of this year, we will achieve 1 gigawatt of connection points, consumer connection points. That will be key points for the development and construction of future data centers. At the same time, you know that we are the owner of the infrastructure, substation and grid connections that will be critical if you want to construct and to connect the data center. A few days ago, we have announced our first deal allocating Puertollano factory. You know that in Puertollano, we had an old factory of solar PV modules and solar cells. And we are adopting this installation for data center factory. And this is the first deal. Initially, we have agreed to sign a contract of 40 megawatts of supply and some construction activities that will be supplied by Solaria to our customer, which are good first deal, really good first deal that changed completely the face of Solaria because we supply PPA agreement with really good conditions. We supply services, construction services and engineering services, and we supply connection point, we supply substations, we supply grid for connecting the data center. For us, it's a new customer that will change completely the face of the company in the next year, the data center customer. And in our view, it's not only a phenomenon that we are going to see here in Spain, it' global in Europe, not only in Spain, probably in Germany, United Kingdom in all the countries. Obviously, as you know, in Spain, we have a great situation and it's our key market, but we are working on the same development in other countries. For us, this new business area, this new business unit, what does it mean for Solaris, it's cash, is completely different if you compare with generation business. It's not CapEx invested. CapEx was done because -- all the CapEx was done with the original infrastructure or with the original generation asset. It's cash in that we will reside in the next quarters. It's PPA customer in really good conditions because it's final customer and it's engineering services. I think that it's still too early to talk about this, but probably in the next year, we will see that data centers customers will represent an important percentage of the total consumption of electricity in Europe. In United States, in some places, you know it's not a surprise. It's not -- nothing new. You know perfectly the situation in some places, especially in some places of the United States. Today, we are talking with all the key players, key clients of United States that wants to establish data centers here in Europe. And I think that we don't reject possibility to establish with some of the joint ventures or to develop companies with some partners or something like this. Today, our business model is extremely basic if you want. We sell a connection point, infrastructure and PPA. In the future, we could sophisticate and we could entry in joint venture, our companies with some partners. Of course, other new infrastructure business is not new because we announced 3 years ago, and we have worked strongly during these last 3 years is GENERIA. GENERIA is a land ownership that we have inside Solaria. You have read in some newspapers that we are executing an M&A deal associated with GENERIA. We are going to introduce a partner in our GENERIA company that will have the ownership of 49% of the company. I think it's -- I prefer to still keep confidential terms of this negotiation. That is something that we are executing, but it sounds good for us. We will use all the cash because they are going to increase capital inside GENERIA. We will use all the cash that we are going to receive in the acquisition of land rights and other issues. And I think that for us, GENERIA will be a new business that will grow a lot in the next 3 years. And of course, today, and we are developing along with our own sources, and with our own company and cash. But with this new partner, I think that the growth that we are going to have is significant. Of course, situation of our generation assets, construction, where we are, where we'll be in the future. Approximately 50% of our portfolio, as you know, is allocated in Spain. The other 50% is in other parts of Europe, especially Germany, Italy, now we are working in United Kingdom but Germany, Italy focus. In Italy, we have really good developments that, hopefully, in the next quarter, we will report really good results, extremely large development, some of them 800, 700 megawatts of development that is significant for us, extremely efficient from a CapEx perspective, extremely efficient from numbers, IRR levels perspective. I think in Italy and Germany, as you know, we have decided to entry. And I think that we are doing a good job. Quarterly, we will report news on these new countries, and we will see the evolution. Wind. Wind technology and all the people is talking about batteries, technology, strong discussions. I think that I read a lot of reports and comments about where we should be or not only Solaria, globally the market, solar, wind. I think that for us, wind application, it's reasonable, to combine solar and wind has all sense for us. I think that is reasonable to extend all of our connection points and to add wind capacity because from a CapEx perspective, has sense, and from a business perspective, has sense because we can offer to our customers coverage of 24 hours, and it's interesting for us. I think that we will start with some wind parks, especially in Spain in 2025. Amd 2025, 2026, we are going to construct wind parks, especially in Spain. But it's not only something that we are developing in Spain because we are doing the same in Italy, in Germany. But obviously, Spain will be the first. Batteries. Batteries is something that all the people is talking about batteries. You know that Spain is studying a new legislation, a new law that could come at the end of this year, first month of next year, with payments for capacity. It's something that could open seriously the door to install batteries, but we need to see the law. We need to see the payments for capacity that the government is going to approve, I'm positive about this because I think that government has understood perfectly that battery could be a good solution if you want to change completely the energetic-based model. And I think that something will come from the government for the end of this year, start of next year. And all of our -- in some of our projects, we've had batteries. We've had in the license process, and we are able to install if the government approved something attractive for us. The global idea of this presentation, EBITDA guideline, we have included EBITDA guideline for this year. It's something that includes some revenues that will come from data center business, as I have mentioned, and I think it's conservative because honestly, I think that more money could come from data center, especially in 2024, 2025, I think that big numbers will come from this data center activity for 2024 and 2025. We have included an estimation of cash for the end of this year and next year. It's important because, as you know, during the last year, we have talked all the time about debt, CapEx investments. With this data center business, we'll start to talk about cash generation because we are going to receive cash payments associated with all the CapEx that during the last year, we've done in generation assets, but players of data center should pay for all of this CapEx invested. And we have included an estimation of CapEx that we could receive. And especially, I think focus in 2024, 2025 that we have a strong visibility about this. I think that obviously, this cash generation will give to us new opportunities to invest in new things. And we will see and we will communicate, and we will see. If you want, we could go directly to Q&A session, it's more interesting and we could comment.

Thank you, Arturo. I will now open the Q&A session. And also, again, thank you for your time. So the first question come from Fernando Garcia from RBC. Can we update about the first data center agreement in terms what is still pending in terms of what is signing the contract and the PPA. What is the visibility we have on the data center cash of EUR 670 million. Regarding GENERIA, can that cash and as well as the one-off GENERIA can be used at Solaria level or is going to stay in the business. What do we need to implement the buyback program in terms of leverage? And finally, regarding the EBITDA target, are we including gains from GENERIA or data center.

Data center, the first deal, we are negotiating now PPA terms, and we are negotiating contracts. I think that probably in October, we are going to sign, and we are going to establish the formal PPA and the former contract with them. I think that there's reasonable to say that probably before the end of October, we could close both deals. And we are negotiating now lawyers and terms, legal terms. The visibility of the EUR 670 million. Today, as I have mentioned, the visibility that we have is 2024, 2025, especially. Today, we are negotiating with several players that wants to acquire by the connection points that we have inside the company. As I have mentioned, 250 -- more than 250 megawatts are the connection points that we have received formally. And associated with this number, we are negotiating now with different parts. I don't include the data center deal of Puertollano. We have several companies interested in this. And hopefully, during the last quarter of this year, probably, first quarter of 2025, we are going to report deals associated with these 250 megawatts. And the other part, first of all, we are awaiting the final answer for the final authorization of this connection points. But honestly, I think that with high level of probability, extremely high level of probability, we will receive answers in the last quarter of this year, and we will start to talk with players. But we need to see. We need to see next movement. And as I have explained, we need to see if we could move our business model to a joint venture business model or whatever. I think that in order to give visibility, the initial numbers of 2024, 2025 will have a strong level of visibility. About GENERIA, GENERIA is not going to contribute if we increase capital, it is not going to contribute with EBITDA, obviously, because it's 51% Solaris ownership, 49% third parties and it's not going to contribute with any EBITDA. It's something that will contribute to the growth of GENERIA. Today, I'm not extremely worried about the contribution of EBITDA of GENERIA because it's not critical for us. I think that GENERIA for myself and for our partner and honestly, for myself because, probably I will be with them like -- I will -- personally, I think that it's a great business. And I think that in GENERIA with an infrastructure player, personally, I want to be involved. I want to be involved like investor. I think that GENERIA, our view is that we could grow in 3, 4 years and we could sell in 3, 4 years or who knows, but it's a growth company for developing the business plan in 3, 4 years. But for analyst report, it's not significant EBITDA today, and buyback in terms of leverage. Honestly, the buyback could be done by, I'm going to say by myself, if I want, but during the last month, I haven't been extremely involved in the company for different reasons. I have been involved, always, I'm involved in the company. But for different reasons, I was -- I had a period of -- lockup period and I haven't acquired shares during the period, a small period of time. I think that I'm going to come back aggressively probably. Company that could start with a buyback in terms of leverage, but I think that we will decide. If we receive this money during October and during the last quarter of the year, I think it's a good idea with the actual value of the shares to require massively shares. Yes, it has sense, to invest in our own shares could have sense for us, and I think it's reasonable. Not with leverage with the new cash received.

Just a final question from Fernando Garcia. When do we expect to connect the 1.4 gigawatts under construction?

I think that today, we are constructing. We have different schedules for all the different assets that we have under construction. For example, the Catalonian assets, correct myself, David, if I'm in a mistake, but during this last quarter of this year, we could connect the Catalonian assets. During the first half of next year, we are going to connect other assets. It's like probably we are living, like always, a rush-hour around construction. And during the next 6 to 10 months, we are going to connect an important part of this 1.4 gigawatts. It will be done progressively. And of course, I think that we depend on third parties in some cases because unfortunately, we share infrastructure sometimes with some peers or colleagues in the market. And honestly, they try to delay sometimes the construction process and for different reasons but they are not extremely interested to construct today. Sometimes, we are doing alone. But by law, we are obligated to share the infrastructure with some players. And it's something that delays sometimes our connection process. But I think that during this quarter, this last quarter, we could connect a percentage Catalonia assets, and we will add more.

Next question is coming from Eduardo González from Banco Santander. Amount of infra revenue in the first half of 2024. I will answer. In the first quarter, we registered asset rotation of EUR 11.5 million and on top of that, we have recognized infra revenue of EUR 12 million, so EUR 12 million of infra revenue and EUR 11.5 million of asset rotation. Next question, coming from Alberto Gandolfi from Goldman Sachs. Of the EUR 205 million, EUR 215 million EBITDA guidance for this year and for the next year of EUR 245 million, EUR 255 million. How much do you include for asset rotation gain or other gain? And how much for infrastructure EBITDA? First question. Second question, can you help us build the bridge of 2025 versus 2024 EBITDA? How can grow 20%, if most addition towards the end of 2025 in capacity, I assume. And third and last one is what's the time line of the addition of the 1.4 gigawatts. And is there more capacity connection in the second half of 2025 and 2026?

Of course, a lot of questions. But in order to try to give a global idea and in details, I think that David could give you more supporting details. But in order to give a global idea. The jump that we execute from 2024, 2025 is we are expecting extremely high incomes that will come from data center business, as I have mentioned. If you see in the last page, the cash that we are going to receive is similar to the EBITDA that is going to generate approximately. Asset rotation strategy. We have sold an asset rotation. We have executed an asset rotation in the first quarter, and it was done to one of our key customers. It wasn't a formal process, but one of our key customers that work with us for a long time, want to deal -- to close a deal with us associated with an asset rotation and we execute and we have a really good relation with them, and we have executed. It could be done, again, during this last quarter. Yes. we are talking with some of our key players that oil, the people that sign usually with us PPAs and that support a lot the company and the growth of Solaria and appreciate a lot because one of the key points of our business is our customers. And these guys want to grow with us, and we appreciate and they could acquire percentage or some assets from us in a global deal that will include PPA and construction services and could be done during the last quarter of this 2024, first quarter of 2025.

Yes. Just to be clear, in -- Alberto, in Slide 12 and 13, you have all the bits in the -- of course, in the Slide 12, you have the EBITDA, including infra revenue. And in the Slide 13, it's not related to energy. So you can see that in 2024 and 2025, we include more or less EUR 100 million associated with infra, pipeline rotation and data center on top of the energy sales. What does it mean is that even if we have not added a lot of capacity in 2024 and 2025, we may be able to reach this target because of this EUR 100 million per year. Next question is coming from Arthur Sitbon from Morgan Stanley. I assume that it's the same answer as we include in 2024 and 2025 EBITDA target capital gains. Yes, EUR 60 million and EUR 50 million. Are we going to be responsible for any cash investments in data center project? No, we are not investing cash. So next question coming from Victor Peiro from GVC Gaesco if we can give some more color about some new evolution of the infra revenue and asset rotation.

As I always explain in all the calls, infra revenues comes from services that we are supplying to our key customers and sometimes are extremely difficult to predict. We are involved today in, as I have explained in massive construction around all the places of Spain, substation grid, all kind of PV assets around all the geography of Spain. And of course, we share infrastructure with some players that subcontract from our services. It's extremely difficult with more volume, more customers, more capacity to supply or to obtain profits from the infrastructure division. I understand that it's useful to know the numbers for the next year, but unfortunately, I can't. I know that it's difficult for analyst reports because you like and you love to include projections, but I don't love too much to include projections. I prefer to leave the business day by day.

In any case, Victor, we assume in Slide 13, we give this reference of EUR 25 million as infra revenue per year until 2028. Next question is coming from Arthur Sitbon from Morgan Stanley. The first data center deal seems to imply a multiple of EUR 1.5 million per megawatt. Should we expect a similar multiple on future deals?

I don't want to talk too much about prices. I don't want to talk too much about prices. So I think that it's a good business and with good revenues and is something that we have invested a lot during last year. And I think that we are going to get good cash. Why I don't want to talk about numbers? Because I think it's not good. It's not good. It's a great business in my view, but we will see the evolution. You will see in the third quarter results presentation in the last quarter results presentation. Next year, in the first quarter, you will see the cash and the situation of the company. I think it's not timing for talking about price or whatever. I'm not extremely worried about -- I understand, but I'm not extremely worried about projections or reports. I'm extremely worried about real operation, real cash in and real numbers that should come and must come in the next month, in the next few months, and I'm focused on this. And because we have opened a lot of different negotiations because the demand is incredible. I'm extremely surprised. Not surprised because it's something that we have a study deeply during the last quarters, but the demand is incredible. And the interest and people that want to develop, serious people with money, with capacity, not speculating company that you have a lot of speculators in Spain, we are keen on this. But a serious company with money and with capacity that wants to develop data center business, and we are negotiating with some of them. And I think that to talk about prices today is not good.

Next question comes from Philippe Ourpatian from ODDO. Can we precise the capital gain amount accounted in EBITDA at the end of June? Is there any change versus the first quarter? No, Philippe. We registered EUR 11.5 million as capital gain in the first quarter, and no capital gains in the second quarter. Next question is coming from Manuel Palomo from BNP Paribas. Are we expecting any additional capacity additions this year? As Arturo said, not in the short term. Second question. Can we rule out any project finance, we'll need additional equity. As Arturo said, today, we don't have any plan of equity. It's all the contrary. We are -- we may generate a lot of cash. And for that reason, we may announce a buck back program if share is still undervalue. Third question from Manuel is can we give the detail of the cash flow, assume in 2024, 2028? And I assume that you can see in the Slide 13, you have all the answer, Manuel. Next question is coming from Fernando Lafuente from Alantra. Are we negotiating or considering signing new PPAs? What are the price level and duration that you are seeing?

New PPAs. Today we have offers of PPA in [ 36, 37 ] that could be reasonable, especially associated with the CapEx that we are getting today, really good CapEx, but we are going to see because I'm talking about distribution companies, retail companies, the typical company that signed contract with us, because we have a long list of customers that you know perfectly, and you are talking hundreds of occasions with them. And these guys are managing our touching prices of [ 36, 37 ] and it could be done with us. About data center business, price that we are touching is completely different. They are final customers. I think that price is different and obviously, more interesting for us. We could announce PPA deals. We have explained in all the conference call, but I always take decisions quiet. I don't take decision based on feelings or emotions. I take decisions always based on numbers and rational concepts and I think that our average expectation of merchant prices for the year, it's around [ 45 ] approximately, probably [ 45, 46, ] we will see. You will see that we are going to achieve this number, like average solar price for 2024. It's not bad. It's not extremely good, but it's not bad. And we need to see the evolution of the market, especially associated with data centers. And we are today talking with all of our customers. I have mentioned clearly that asset rotation at least a percentage could be associated with key customers of the past that could sign PPA at the same time. And we will see in the next quarters.

So we have a lot of questions. We'll try to get the next one. Next question is coming from Daniel Rodríguez from Bestinver. Who could be your potential client in GENERIA? What is the proportion of capital gain including the guidance? And I think we already answered to this one. And are we closing the PPA agreement in the short term? I think Arturo already answered to your question. So the first question maybe is who could be a potential client in GENERIA.

Infrastructure players, typical infrastructure players that are looking for dividends and payments, warranty payments in the long term, insurance company and infrastructure players. I think that we are negotiating with -- we are in a process with investment banks that they have been contracted for executing this deal. And I'm completely sure we will have good successful, and we will see because it's something that we are going to close before the end of this year, before the end of 2024.

Maybe last -- one the last question from Nash, from Naisheng Cui from Barclays. A few questions. First, on data center, can we provide more color on the EUR 60 million cash estimated for 2024? I think Nash is not the only analyst asking it. Then for the EUR 700 million cash generation from data center in the next 4 years, how much of that is recurring? And then I think that we already answered to the other question. So can we provide more color on the EUR 60 million deal for this year? And second, if the EUR 700 million of cash generation for the next 4 years are recurring.

Color, my favorite color is green. But your question is not about this. But I think that in 1 month, you are going to see. In 1 month, you are going to see -- in less than 1 month. And I think that we have -- in this case, I'm going to use the word feeling, we have with good feelings about this deal and other deals associated with data centers. I think that after to close, we will report details to the market, not all the details because I think it's not good. We will report the general details of the deal, and we will report new contracts and new customers in next presentations. I'm sorry if I'm not giving too much information, but I think it's a global idea. It's something that the key question today for us is execution is receive the cash and to execute the deals, not to include projections or whatever. It's timing for execution in my mind. And I can say that I'm extremely happy. I think that it's a really good moment and you will see results in the short term.

Just maybe the last question for today. Sorry, not to answer to your questions. The last one from Daniel Rodríguez from Bestinver. Any update on the asset rotation in the Basque Country?

Basque Country is difficult, like Trillo, like Garoña, like all the projects like the project that we are developing in Italy of 800 megawatts, ambitious and extremely complicated projects. I'm completely sure we are going to have successful, but if it's difficult, it's our job, it's a typical target of Solaria, difficult projects. I think that asset rotation will be done, but we need time for license process, environmental permitting process. It's like we need to give visibility to the project because if you want to receive serious money, you need to give visibility to the project. If you try to obtain something, obviously, they are not going to pay all the value of the project. And today, we are focused in the Basque Country in the execution process in the license process. We are obtaining good news. I think that we are advancing and we will see. And as you know, in the past projects in the past, our partner was the government, the past government and we will see in the future.

Thank you. It was the last question. So thank you very much for joining today's today call.

Thank you very much for your attention. I think that I have tried to give visibility about new business activities, new divisions and during the next days after a period of vacation that David has called a vacation, it's not real vacation. But I will be in the road show with investors and with all the community explaining the company, the situation and all the details of our business plan.