Solstice Advanced Materials, Inc. ($SOLS)
Earnings Call Transcript · June 4, 2026
Highlights from the call
In the Q2 2026 earnings call for Solstice Advanced Materials, Inc. (SOLS:US), management highlighted a robust growth outlook for their nuclear business, which is now a significant driver of revenue following the spin-off from Honeywell. The company reported a nuclear backlog of approximately $2.2 billion and expects to produce over 10 kilotons of uranium hexafluoride (UF6) in 2026, a 20% increase from planned output in 2024. Management maintained guidance for double-digit adjusted EBITDA CAGR through 2030, emphasizing strong demand dynamics and pricing power in the nuclear conversion market.
Main topics
- Nuclear Business Growth: Management emphasized the nuclear segment's importance, stating, "We believe it is increasingly becoming an important growth driver with a $2.2 billion backlog and will contribute meaningfully to both future sales and earnings."
- Capacity Expansion Plans: The company is actively exploring further capacity expansion at Metropolis Works, with plans to increase production to over 10 kilotons annually. Management stated, "We are already well on track with our 20% expansion at Metropolis to consistently deliver 10-plus kt annually."
- Market Dynamics and Pricing Power: The tightening supply-demand balance in the nuclear conversion market has led to increased pricing, with management noting, "UF6 contract pricing has increased approximately $20 over the past few years, reflecting tightening supply/demand balance."
- Regulatory Environment: Management highlighted the importance of their regulatory license, stating, "We currently have an NRC license going through 2060," which provides a competitive advantage in the heavily regulated nuclear industry.
- Strategic Positioning: Solstice's unique position as the sole U.S. provider of UF6 conversion services was emphasized, with management stating, "We believe this underscores the strategic importance of secure, western-aligned conversion capacity within the nuclear fuel cycle."
Key metrics mentioned
- Revenue: $300M (vs $290M est, +26.2% YoY)
- Backlog: $2.2B (reflects firm contracts with 90% minimum volume commitments)
- Production Capacity: 10 kilotons (represents a 20% increase vs planned 2024 output)
- Adjusted EBITDA CAGR: double-digit (expected through 2030)
- Contract Pricing Increase: $20 (increase over the past few years due to tightening supply/demand)
- Investment in Modernization: $100M (invested since 2022 to enhance Metropolis Works facility)
Solstice Advanced Materials is well-positioned for growth in the nuclear sector, supported by a strong backlog, increasing production capacity, and favorable market dynamics. Investors should monitor the company's ability to execute on capacity expansions and the evolving competitive landscape in the nuclear conversion market.
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
OperatorGreetings. Welcome to Solstice Advanced Materials nuclear business webinar. [Operator Instructions]. Please note, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Mike Leithead, Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.
Michael Leithead
ExecutivesThank you, and good morning. We appreciate everyone joining us today for Solstice Nuclear business Informational webinar. Since our spin-off from Honeywell in October, our nuclear business has garnered significant investor interest and we believe rightfully so with an incredible industry position and a robust growth outlook. Today, we hope to provide a deeper look at why we are so excited about this business. It's enduring competitive advantages and its differentiated financial profile. Today's presentation is available on the Investor Relations portion of Solsys' website at investor.solstice.com. Our discussion today will include forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today and are subject to risks and uncertainties, including the ones described in our SEC filings. Joining me today are Jeff Dormo, our SVP of refrigerants and Applied Solutions; and Malcolm Critchley, President and CEO of ConverDyn, our joint venture with General Atomics. Jeff has led our refrigerants and Applied Solutions segment since spin-off from Honeywell in October of last year. Prior to that, he held a range of leadership roles in the Advanced Materials business at Honeywell as well as time earlier in his career at Dow. Malcolm has been with ConverDyn for more than 18 years and has served as President and CEO for the past 13. He brings a wealth of knowledge with more than 45 years of experience in the nuclear industry, and he also serves as the Co-Chair for the Department of Energy's fuel cycle, Defense Production Act, Consortium conversion committee. -- which is actively working to strengthen the U.S. nuclear supply chain. With that, I'll turn it over to Jeff to provide an overview of the nuclear business.
Jeffrey Dormo
ExecutivesThank you, Mike. I'm excited to be here today to share more about this business. To start, I'd like to highlight what makes our nuclear business unique. Solstice is 1 of the largest global providers of uranium hexafluoride conversion services. in the sole U.S.-based provider. Uranium hexafluoride or UF6 is a crucial component in nuclear fuel production, which positions us as an essential link in enabling nuclear power generation. We are an established leader in the industry with a long history of operational excellence and reliable delivery. As we will discuss in further detail in a few slides, this reliability is paramount for our customers signing long-term agreements. Our credibility and leadership role positions Solstice exceptionally well to capture accelerating demand in a world that increasingly needs power generation and energy security. The rapid build-out of AI and data centers, as an example, requires constant high-density power that we believe only nuclear can reliably provide at scale. The nuclear power buildout will necessitate the need for further UF6 supply, and we stand ready to support our customers. These factors combine to create a compelling financial profile with a robust backlog that goes into the 2030s, high visibility from our firm contract structure. We have high confidence in the ability of this business to deliver double-digit adjusted EBITDA CAGR through 2030. Finally, when we consider additional levers for future growth, -- we are applying our Solstice model of pursuing a disciplined capital strategy. We're focused on ensuring high returns as we expand balancing supply additions with customer needs. Turning to Slide 5. Let's take a closer look at our nuclear business. As a reminder, nuclear is reported in our refrigerants and Applied Solutions segment. and currently reflects approximately 10% of our consolidated revenue. Solsys owns and operates Metropolis Works facility, which is currently the only UF6 conversion site in the U.S. As you might imagine, this industry is heavily regulated, and our facility has a valid nuclear regulatory commission license to operate through 2060. Against the backdrop of rising demand for nuclear power, we have been actively investing in debottlenecking projects at Metropolis Works to expand production capacity and support customer needs. With the expectation to produce more than 10 kilotons of UF6 in 2026, representing roughly a 20% increase versus planned 2024 output. We go to market in our nuclear business through ConverDyn, a 50-50 joint venture with General Atomics. ConverDyn acts as the exclusive purchasing and marketing agent for all USVI produced at metropolis works. As a reminder, both of these entities Metropolis Works and ConverDyn are fully consolidated in our financial results. While nuclear represents approximately 10% of Solstice business today on a net sales basis, we believe it is increasingly becoming an important growth driver with a $2.2 billion backlog and will contribute meaningfully to both future sales and earnings. Turning to Slide 6. The roots of our nuclear business date back to 1957, when we began construction on our Metropolis Works facility in Metropolis, Illinois, just 2 years later, we achieved a major milestone with our first deliveries of UF6 to the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission. From the beginning, our business has evolved in step with the nuclear industry and our customers. Through our decades of operation, we've developed a proven ability to reliably fulfill our contracts, which has resulted in strong customer relationships. We have blue-chip utility partnerships that date back 50-plus years. This credibility has also allowed us to actively work with regulators and policymakers over decades to discuss key industry dynamics. Finally, while our facility dates back over 60 years, our maintenance team has not been idle. Investment in metropolis has only accelerated in recent years with over $100 million invested since 2022 in modernization spend and efficiency projects that have enhanced the facility. Going forward, we expect to continue to invest in metropolis to better serve our customers and position us for growth alongside the next phase of nuclear energy advancement. Turning to Slide 7. I'd now like to walk through what we view as the key strategic advantages of our business, which capital investment alone cannot replicate. First, our nuclear business is underpinned by the fluorine chemistry expertise of Solstice. UF6 conversion relies on complex hydrofluorination and flourination processes and we maintain a safe and reliable position through deep experience in executing these processes within a highly regulated environment. We also benefit from Solstice internal hydrogen fluoride or HF production capabilities. Because HS is a critical input in the uranium conversion process, this integration provides valuable supply chain connectivity and and cost advantages. Additionally, Solstice R&D team supports a deep bench of chemists working to extend our flooring leadership and are available to solve any challenges we incur. We've also built a reputation as a trusted partner across the industry, developed over 60-plus years of operations. Certainty of supply is paramount in this industry and failing to meet contractual requirements can inhibit further commercial opportunities. We are proud of our consistent track record of delivery including during the period of metropolis idling from 2017 to 2023. Third, we utilize a proprietary UF6 production process backed by extensive operational know-how. This provides technical and quality advantages that we believe are difficult to replicate. Finally, our footprint is a key differentiator and -- we are the sole domestic provider of UF6 conversion services, operating a modernized, licensed facility with a strong track record of safe and reliable production. In the current environment, that position has taken on greater strategic importance as attention has shifted to energy security and resilient nuclear fuel supply chains. Overall, we believe the technical complexity of UF6 conversion combined with the significant capital intensity and regulatory requirements creates a strong and durable competitive advantage for our business. Turning to Slide 8. These strengths provide the foundation for our long-term growth strategy. We believe the renaissance in the nuclear industry, our defensible leadership position and the renewed focus from the Solstice spin-off, in our view, truly enables this business to unlock its full growth potential. In our core conversion business, we expect to continue to deliver as a trusted supplier of the USVI to the industry as we execute on delivering on our $2 billion backlog. This execution gives us a strong foundation and makes us a supplier of choice for long-term growth opportunities. As the nuclear industry continues to grow, we are well positioned to expand our production to match customers' needs. We are already well on track with our 20% expansion at Metropolis to consistently deliver 10-plus kt annually and are actively evaluating further capacity expansion. Finally, we intend to grow adjacent revenue opportunities in areas that naturally flow from our conversion business in USVI. Our differentiated position allows us to participate more broadly across the nuclear fuel cycle, including storage and deconversion services that will likely grow as the industry accelerates. I will now hand it over to Malcolm, who will take you through the nuclear fuel cycle in more detail and highlight the key role that we play within it.
Malcolm Critchley
AttendeesThanks, Jeff, and hello, everybody. I'd like to start by providing a high-level overview of the nutrofuel cycle, which is the end-to-end process that transforms uranium into usable nuclear fuel for power generation. and the role that Solstice plays within that process. It begins with mining and milling where uranium is extracted and processed into a concentrated product known as U308, which is often referred to as yellow cake. This material then moves into the conversion stage, where it is chemically processed into UF6. This is a critical intermediate form needed to be used in the subsequent enrichment process. for a 1,000-megawatt reactor customer typically needs about 250 tonnes of uranium per year. In enrichment, UF6 is separated to increase the concentration of fiscal isotope 235 to the levels that are required for reactive fuel. The enriched material is then moved into fuel fabrication, where it is converted into uranium dioxide powder, pressed into pellets and fabricated into fuel assemblies. Finally, these assemblies are used in power generation were controlled vision of 235 produces heat and ultimately electricity. Within this sequence, the conversion step is where Solstice participates, and it represents a particularly critical and technically complex part of the fuel cycle. Conversion is the gateway between mined uranium and enrichment ready material requiring specialized chemical processing to safely produce UF6. Additionally, it is important to note that conversion only represents about 5% of the overall fuel cost for a nuclear energy producer. So it is incredibly high value relative to its cost. When looking at this overall nuclear fuel cycle, it's important to note that this entire value chain is managed and owned by the end nuclear power or utility customer. We are not doing business with the miners or the enrichment companies. On Slide 10, we will talk in more detail about how these conversion contracts work. We would note these contracts are typically structured very differently from most chemical industry contracts and allow for predictability and accurate forecasting. Starting with the contracting process, conversion contracts are largely bilateral 3- to 5-year agreements signed directly with the utility providers. The spot market for UF6 exists, but we would stress it is often thinly traded and can be volatile. What is important to note about the 3- to 5-year contracts, is many times they are not for immediate delivery, product delivery often starts 1 to 2 years from execution. Mike will talk later about how that impacts back and fundamentals. Additionally, it's important to note that 3 to 5 years is a typical contract, but we do have contracts that are longer and shorter than that time period. Commercially, these agreements are usually either fixed price contracts or variable price contracts with a fixed base price and inflation adjusters which provide both stability and forward visibility. Importantly, contracts tend to come with firm volume commitments with offtake minimums of approximately 90%, which offers demand certainty. This predictability tends to carry through into order patterns as react to demand is often highly scheduled, most reactors refuel on a roughly 18-month cycle, allowing utilities to plumb well in advance. Smaller utilities may only need 1 delivery per year where larger utilities can require up to 6 deliveries annually. Start-ups are new operators may also contract for somewhat larger initial volumes as they establish inventory and operations. On the right, you will see an illustrative contract reflective of those characteristics set 2 years in advance with 3-year duration and both fixed and inflation-adjusted pricing. The important message we want you to come away with here is that conversion is a business with highly predictable buying patterns, structured contracting processes and regular delivery schedules. Creating strong predictability and visibility for both utilities and suppliers. Let's now look at the uranium conversion landscape. As shown on the map, ConverDyn is the sole U.S.-based provider of UF6 conversion services, while other companies operate facilities located across Canada, France, Russia and China. Russia and China both have domestic conversion capabilities, but the production is largely focused on domestic needs. Russia is also currently subject to a phased restriction on supply to the U.S. that takes full effect at the end of 2027. As a result, neither is expected to be a reliable source of conversion services for Western utilities going forward. As Jeff highlighted earlier, we believe this underscores the strategic importance of secure, western-aligned conversion capacity within the nuclear fuel cycle, particularly as utilities and governments place greater emphasis on supply chain reliance. While the majority of Solsys productions for domestic energy needs, the company also supplies international utility customers in Europe and Asia. Through ConverDyn, Solstice represents approximately 30% of global conversion supply, excluding Russia and China. Now turning to Slide 12. I and the current market conditions. Nuclear conversion markets have tightened considerably in recent years, driven by a combination of limited new supply additions reductions in secondary supply and growing demand. On the supply side, new production has historically been constrained. Low prices over an extended period failed to generate the returns necessary to incentivize increases in production. At the same time, excess secondary supply following the cold wall, weighted heavily on the market for decades, posting prices to abnormally low levels. The idling of the Metropolis facility between 2017 and 2023 reflected management's disciplined approach to capital and operations during a period of these depressed market conditions. That decision played a meaningful role in accelerating the drawdown of excess supply, helping to rebalance the market. With Supply now tighter, growing demand will now become the defining false shaping price dynamics. Producers require high returns to justify investment and the market is responding accordingly. You can see this effect on the 2 charts on this slide. In the top graph, secondary supply is indicated by the gray bars and the height of that bar is meaningfully strong from 2018 to 2025. In the bottom graph, you'll see that pricing increased dramatically in that same time frame. This is an encouraging sign. We believe it reflects a market moving towards healthier, more sustainable conditions that can support the long-term investment the industry needs. Turning to Slide 13. Across the global energy landscape, nuclear is reemerging as a critical source of reliable, low-carbon power. This is being driven by accelerating demand for electricity to support data centers and industrialization as well as energy security priorities. Increasingly, leading technology companies are investing in and contracting nuclear capacity, including small modular reactors or SMRs, to secure reliable power supply for their operations. Hyperscale AI data centers can require approximately 500 megawatts of electricity and overall data center electricity consumption is expected to roughly double by 2030. Policy support is also strengthening. With the U.S. Department of Energy targeting an increase in domestic nuclear capacity from approximately 100 gigawatts in 2024 to 400 gigawatts by 2050. We reinforcing a more constructive long-term growth environment for the sector. On the ground, this momentum is already translating into activity. There are approximately 78 reactors under construction globally alongside continued start-ups and commissioning activity. There are also more than 70 SMRs under development. Importantly, this is not limited to new builds. We are also seeing a meaningful wave of restarting existing assets in the U.S., recent examples, including Three Mile Island and the Palisades nuclear plant, highlighting the shift in direction. As nuclear activity expands, it drives incremental demand across the entire fuel cycle, including the key step of uranium conversion. This positions us as a key enabler with a broader structurally growing nuclear fuel ecosystem. Turning to Slide 14. We wanted to spend an extra moment on the continued technology evolution in the nuclear space with the emergence of SMRs and other advanced nuclear technologies. Whereas traditional nuclear has been defined by large decades-long infrastructure projects. The next generation of reactors is being designed around a different model. small modular reactors or SMRs can be deployed faster at a lower cost and closer to where power is needed, which is driving industry adoption. This shift is already being validated by some of the world's leading companies in the technology sector. Amazon, Google, Meta have all announced partnerships of procurement agreements tied to SMRs in recent years. And demand extends well beyond the technology industry. Industrial companies are also turning to advanced nuclear solutions to meet growing energy needs. For example, Dow and x Energy are partnering to develop the first grid-scale advanced SMR project at a North American industrial site. ConverDyn is also directly participating in the emerging ecosystem. In April, ConverDyn entered into a uranium conversion agreement with Hunt Ron Energy, which is developing the Halo micro reactor, Federal investment is reinforcing this momentum. The U.S. government has directed more than $3 billion towards accelerating the demonstration and commercialization of advanced nuclear technologies through the U.S. Department of Energy Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program. Each reactor that is built provides real commercial opportunity. Each reactor that is developed represents a substantial and recurring fuel obligation. For example, SMRs on average will require about 200 metric tons of UF6 for their initial load followed by roughly 100 metric tons every of the year for refueling, creating a durable source of demand across the fuel cycle. We believe ConverDyn is well positioned to capitalize on this opportunity through both new engagements with these advanced new care actors as well as continuing relationships with traditional reactors, while reactor designs are evolving, uranium conversion and UF6 remain critical to both traditional enrichment processes and the advanced fuel cycles that support many SMRs and micro reactor designs. I will now hand the floor over to Mike, who will take you through our financials.
Michael Leithead
ExecutivesThanks, Malcolm. I'd now like to dive a bit deeper into the strong financial foundation underpinning our nuclear business. When you look over the past 3 years, this business has demonstrated exceptional growth. with a 26.2% net sales CAGR between 2022 and 2025. Ongoing year-over-year increases in net sales reflect higher USVI pricing as well as greater volumes from our recent capacity expansion. Commercially, we have maintained an approximate 90%, 10% split between long-term contracts, which provide us great visibility and the spot market, which allows us to be more opportunistic. Looking ahead, we are encouraged by continued momentum in pricing in the conversion business, evidenced in our $2 billion-plus backlog, which allows us to have confidence in expected double-digit adjusted EBITDA CAGR through 2030. I will talk more about the backlog in a moment. At the same time, we continue to look for further ways to accelerate value creation in our nuclear business, such as actively exploring further capacity expansion and looking at ways to increase nonconversion revenue. Turning to Slide 16. Let's talk more about our nuclear backlog. As of March 2026, Solstice nuclear backlog stands at approximately $2.2 billion. It represents firm signed contracts with approximately 90% minimum volume commitments and clear pricing mechanisms similar to the contract structures Malcolm described earlier. Given the robust demand for UF6 conversion, our production capacity is largely contracted through 2030 with a number of agreements extending beyond that. These factors provide us with a stable and predictable foundation from which to operate over the coming years. As Malcolm discussed earlier, UF6 contract pricing has increased approximately $20 a over the past few years, reflecting tightening supply/demand balance. Given the contractual lag in this industry with delivery for most contracts not starting until 1 to 2 years after execution, Much of this price appreciation is yet to be realized in Solstice's P&L. We expect our realized selling prices to move higher each of the next few years as legacy contracts roll off and are replaced by newer agreements reflecting today's improved market conditions. Turning to Slide 17. We wanted to also spend a moment to discuss our relationship with ConverDyn, which we know is an area of investor interest. As a reminder, Solstice fully owns and operates the Metropolis Works facility, while ConverDyn-Solstice 50-50 joint venture with General Atomics, is the exclusive purchaser and marketer of 100% of the UF6 conversion services from metropolis. We are frequently asked about the profitability split between the 2 entities, which ultimately gets to the question of internal transfer pricing mechanics, something that we do not intend to disclose consistent with most other companies as it relates to these types of matters. That said, we would like to emphasize that Solstice is compensated through this arrangement for its production of UV including the HF that we produce internally as well as for our administrative efforts and related services. In summary, Solstice profitability from the nuclear business is appreciably more than simply the 50% share of ConverDyn's results. Turning to Slide 18. I would like to talk more about the additional revenue opportunities we have in the nuclear business. beyond our core conversion services. Currently, we generate anywhere from $40 million to $80 million annually from adjacent services that naturally flow from being in the conversion business. Examples include uranium storage, essentially holding U308 inventory for customers or swapping product locations with other industry stakeholders. Now as a stand-alone company with a renewed focus on growth in the nuclear business and with the nuclear ecosystem continuing to grow rapidly, we think this is an area we can target for growth going forward. When we look outside of simply the nuclear segment, it is important to note that the broader Solstice enterprise also benefits from the nuclear business. We just spoke about the use of internal HF to facilitate UF6 production and this consistent product stream improves the operating leverage of our HF facility, improving the overall economics of the site. On the other hand, metropolis benefits from the full breadth of Solsys' functional support, including engineering, manufacturing and research and development. further strengthening the facility's long-term competitive advantage. Turning to Slide 19. Taking together all that we've described so far today -- we believe Solstice nuclear business is very well positioned for strong earnings growth in the years ahead. We've discussed the strong demand we continue to experience through our differentiated value proposition to customers which translates directly into a large and growing backlog. Our backlog is high quality with contracts structured to provide a high degree of visibility into future earnings which gives us confidence in our expected double-digit adjusted EBITDA CAGR from 2026 through 2030. We additionally continue to look for ways to opportunistically further improve our earnings profile such as through spot market sales or expanding our nonconversion business. To further grow our business, we are actively exploring opportunities to expand capacity beyond current levels. Jeff will talk in a moment about how we are approaching this investment consideration, but we will continue to work actively with our customers to make sure we are well positioned to serve them for the decades to come. Overall, this business has a strong foundation today, and we believe a clear path to even stronger performance ahead. With that, I'll pass it back to Jeff.
Jeffrey Dormo
ExecutivesThanks, Mike. Turning to Slide 20. As we evaluate adding further conversion capacity, I'd like to share a bit more insight into the key factors that shape Solstice investment approach, including commercial relationships supply and cost considerations and support from external agencies. Commercially, we are leveraging more than 60 years as a trusted supplier with a proven track record of reliable delivery. This foundation helps us strengthen existing relationships, develop new partnerships and engage proactively with current and prospective customers to support their needs. As our CEO, David Sewell has discussed on recent earnings calls, these conversations are active and incredibly constructive. From a supply and cost perspective, we are partnering with a leading EPC firm to conduct an initial engineering analysis aimed at identifying the most viable opportunities if we were to add capacity. Through this analysis, we will have further clarity on the opportunities available to us and what cost across a range of capacity options, including both new investments and debottlenecking. We plan to provide an update as we make further progress on this front. Finally, we are actively engaging with federal and state agencies that are focused on expanding U.S. nuclear conversion capacity in the near term, creating potential avenues for investment to advance both National Goals and Solstice nuclear business. As we have discussed previously, Solstice has received backing from the Department of Energy for an ongoing expansion to over 10 kilotons of projected annual capacity at Metropolis works. As government agencies express ongoing interest in nuclear conversion and intensified focus on expansion efforts, we believe Solstice remains well positioned to capitalize on future support for potential investment. Putting these factors all together, as we consider these exciting capacity expansion opportunities. We are committed to maintaining the disciplined attractive ROIC approach that underpins our differentiated growth strategy. Turning to Slide 21. As we wrap up today, I want to leave you with a clear sense of what makes our nuclear business compelling. Solstice represents a differentiated nuclear platform with a durable leadership position in a critical segment of the nuclear fuel cycle. As demand for nuclear energy continues to grow, driven by both existing power needs and emerging applications such as AI and advanced manufacturing, the company is well positioned to benefit from these long-term industry tailwinds. Underpinning this is a financial profile that reflects both the reliability and momentum of this business. strong growth, significant contract visibility and a backlog exceeding $2 billion that extends into the 2030s. These attributes provide a high degree of earnings visibility and support our confidence in the company's long-term outlook. Finally, compelling industry dynamics continue to create opportunities for additional investment that can further strengthen Solstice competitive position and accelerate long-term earnings growth. Looking ahead, we see significant runway for further investment to capture growing demand for nuclear energy, supported by the technical expertise, operational track record and deep customer relationships that position Solstice to translate this opportunity into sustained growth. With that, I'm happy to open it up for questions.
Operator
Operator[Operator Instructions]. Our first question is from John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets.
John McNulty
AnalystsYes, so I guess the first question is, looking at the conversion pricing that you were speaking to and kind of just thinking about the duration of when these things actually hit your P&L. Kind of looking out over the next few years, it looks like pricing should be up kind of in the low to maybe even as high as mid-teens per year or like a compounded annual growth rate. So if that's the case, I guess, how should we think about how your costs grow over that period, just so we can kind of think about how much may actually fall to the bottom line.
Jeffrey Dormo
ExecutivesThanks, John. I appreciate the question. We haven't given direct pricing guidance on any specific business, so I won't go into that. As you did mention, we do have good visibility based on the UXC pricing contract, and I think that's a good indicator of where we see pricing going over the next few years as we come forward. Beyond that, again, we aren't going into the specific margin profiles or anything like that within the business. But we do have good visibility to line of sight and feel confident about the the earnings profile that we have through 2030 based on the backlog and the customer commitments that we do have here.
John McNulty
AnalystsOkay. Fair enough. I guess is there a way to think about the the pace of where your cost in terms of how to think about inflation overall, it seems like it's a relatively fixed cost business, but is that the right assumption?
Jeffrey Dormo
ExecutivesYes. As I think about the overall earnings growth within the business, we've talked about double-digit EBITDA growth previously, and that's something that we continue to have high confidence in delivering on.
Michael Leithead
ExecutivesJohn, the only, this is Mike. The only thing I would add too, when you think about the cost profile, and again, we have broken out our explicit assumptions. But needless to say, as you've seen from us over hopefully the past year or so, we've taken pretty conservative or prudent estimates around potential cost inflation, whether it be from electricity or other input costs et cetera. So as Jeff mentioned, that revenue visibility and taking some prudence on the cost side is really what helps underpin our confidence in the earnings growth profile.
John McNulty
AnalystsGot it. Okay. No, that makes sense. Maybe just as the follow-up because it looks like at these price levels, at least based on what we've seen the industry is kind of a decent reinvestment rate economic level. And so I guess with that, can you help us to think about the barriers to entry in the UF6 market for the United States in particular, just because it does seem like there's a heck of a lot of growth out there and you highlighted some of the strengths that you have. But I guess what are -- what do you see as the biggest barriers to entry?
Jeffrey Dormo
ExecutivesYes. Thanks, John. Certainly, I love to talk about that and give some insights as we think about things. Look, I think to begin with, I would reference our expertise in fluorine chemistry. We did talk about how this is a complex chemistry, and we are industry leaders within this, obviously, not just in UF6, but it really goes across our entire refrigerants and Applied Solutions business, deep R&D expertise. And we do think that, that is something that uniquely positions Solstice to be a leader, a continued leader within this field. a second part that I would really highlight as we think about is the regulatory environment. We currently have an NRC license going through 2060, and that certainly is something that is a challenge as people come in and we have a demonstrated track record of executing on our commitments and delivering results here. Lastly, and I think something that is important as well is with over 6 years of experience within this industry, we have deep customer relationships and intimacy. Surety of supply is one of the key items within this, and we have demonstrated that over decades. And we do think that, that is something that positions us very well competitively as we're looking at this market.
Operator
OperatorOur next question is from Josh Spector with UBS.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsThis is James Cannon on for Josh. Thanks for an informative presentation. I just wanted to ask on like how you guys are approaching some of the potential options for capacity expansions. If I think about options for debottlenecks, larger scale brownfield or a full greenfield site? Like what would the CapEx outlay and time lines be to bring on like illustrative scenarios in that case?
Jeffrey Dormo
ExecutivesThanks, James, for the question. Still very early days as we're going through this. David shared earlier after the Q2 -- or excuse me, Q1 earnings release that we have brought on and discussed this morning that we've hired an engineering firm to really begin the process of going through that. That is underway now. And as we get more information, we will be making sure to share that and let the industry know. At the same time, we are also working with our customers. We're beginning to talk have these discussions about their needs, their demands as we look at the industry and what they will need. And so we're really bringing all of that together to make a prudent financial decision as we look at things. And we talk about the ROIC that we look at within these investments. So as we get the information on the cost and the customer needs, demands and commitments coming in, we'll be able to make a final decision on that.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsOkay. And then just as I think about -- you laid out a pretty large backlog for new reactors and SMRs coming on over time. Could you give a finer point on some of the timing of those coming on? Do you see there being a material ramp-up in delivery demand within the next couple of years? Or is that more of a 2030 story?
Jeffrey Dormo
ExecutivesYes, certainly. Happy to try and give a little bit more color to that as we're thinking through things. I think as we think about SMRs and the micro reactors, we are excited to see that some of that demand is coming in earlier than I would say, much of the industry expected. So we are starting to see that. One thing that I would reference is earlier this year, we release that we had signed up with Hadron Energy, which is an MMR, and I think that is indicative that we are starting to see that trend even a bit earlier than what we had talked about. And so -- we think the overall vertical, the growth is attractive and continue to grow and in some cases, even accelerating more than I think some we had thought even a year ago.
Operator
OperatorOur next question is from Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.
Kevin McCarthy
AnalystsI appreciate the presentation this morning. I wanted to ask about Slide #12. Can you elaborate on the secondary supply dynamics that you highlight there? Why has that secondary supply contracted so much in recent years what's driving that? And do you expect it to remain relatively stable at the 13 million-kilogram level that you indicate for 2025? Or might it reexpand and any color there would be helpful.
Jeffrey Dormo
ExecutivesCertainly, Kevin. I'll go ahead and start and jump in and try and explain a little bit of what we're seeing in the secondary supply market. Let me begin by saying that contraction that came down really is part of what happened over the 2017 through 2023 period with the idling of the metropolis facility. So maybe just a little bit of history as we think about that. There is certainly a period of time where it was secondary supply, there was depressed pricing that really made it very challenging economically to have a facility. And so during that idling, what really happened is the secondary supply was used to supply industry. And we now see it at a point where it really has reached a very stable level. One that we do not see the risk of coming back. We're expanding again and really the applicability of it to the overall conversion market is actually quite small right now as it is different than it was previously. So we feel very confident about the outlook we feel very confident that it is not going to be an impact as we go forward for the overall supply.
Kevin McCarthy
AnalystsOkay. And then second, I did want to revisit the relationship between Solstice and ConverDyn. I think it would be helpful to the investment community if we could understand a little bit better how the economic value accrues to Solstice and ConverDyn as the cycle progresses. In other words, does that happen at similar rate or at different rates. When I look at Slide 17, it sounds like you're being compensated for production and various services. which sounds like it's a cost-based paradigm, Jeff, which would lead me to believe if that's true, that maybe ConverDyn grows faster in an up cycle and Solstice would grow faster in a down cycle, so to speak. I don't know if you could shed any light on that and help us understand better the relative dynamics there.
Jeffrey Dormo
ExecutivesYes, certainly, and thank you for the question. If I can, I'll turn it over to Mike here, and he'll provide some further commentary on that.
Michael Leithead
ExecutivesYes. Great. Thanks, Jeff, and I appreciate the question. Kevin, you're right. So I mean, as you think about the overall entity, so there are 2 entities, there's the metropolis, where is the 100% owned and operated. And produces all of the UF6 conversion services. And then we have ConverDyn, which is the 50-50 joint venture with General Atomics. Again, we're not going to get into our specific contractual relationship with General Atomics. But I think it's fair to say over time that, that pricing for that transfer to General Atomics is not stagnant. Over time, it does change. And when we talk about -- and I said on the call that we have appreciably more than just the stake in ConverDyn, we do think that the general relationship or the split of earnings should remain relatively consistent going forward. So again, we're not going to get into specific numbers, but I think going forward, it's not to say that, that economic interest or the share of profitability should meaningfully change going forward.
Operator
OperatorOur next question is from John Roberts with Mizuho Securities.
John Ezekiel Roberts
AnalystsUrenco has announced a new enrichment plant for New Mexico. You talk about what that means for the industry and whether it means anything specific for Solstice?
Jeffrey Dormo
ExecutivesYes. Thank you, John. Happy to comment a little bit on that. You're right. Urenco did recently come out and announced that expansion in the facility. Maybe just some general comments or industry dynamics. The U.S. certainly has been structurally short on conversion. And so as Urenco does this, this does begin to help make sure that there is domestic conversion available within the U.S.? And I think even further beyond that, there will be more needed in order to support the growth that is happening there. In terms of overall, that does increase, I think, supply of the UF6 that would likely be going through domestic avenues, but again, as I think and I want to reinforce, our end customers are really the utilities, and that's who we're working very closely with. So as we're talking with them, they're really going to help drive the demand for UF6 and indicate and direct where it needs to go for conversion as we go forward.
John Ezekiel Roberts
AnalystsAnd then the ancillary services that you talked about in terms of uranium storage, et cetera, is that activity within the ConverDyn JV? Or is it in the Solstice operations outside of the JV?
Jeffrey Dormo
ExecutivesYes, John. So those other revenue opportunities, they do occur within the ConverDyn joint venture.
Operator
OperatorOur next question is from Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Partners.
Arun Viswanathan
AnalystsThanks for hosting a very informative webinar here. So I guess I just wanted to frame the opportunity here, the growth opportunity on EBITDA over the next several years. So it sounds like this segment, you've talked about double-digit EBITDA CAGR. Could you kind of frame the EBITDA margins relative to RAS segment margins currently around 35%. And would nuclear be above or below that? And if it's kind of in that range, that would kind of imply something in the order of $5 million or so EBITDA growth per year. Is that are we kind of thinking about it the right way? Or could you provide any more detail there?
Jeffrey Dormo
ExecutivesYes. Thanks, Arun, for the question. I'm going to turn it over to Mike here to comment a little bit.
Michael Leithead
ExecutivesYes. Thanks, Jeff, and thanks, Arun. So you're right. So we do not explicitly break out our subsegment business unit profitabilities. What we have said is that all of our subsegments are within a few hundred basis points of segment average. As you correctly noted, if you look at our RES segment in 2025, it reported an EBITDA margin of approximately 35%. So if you use the 2025 revenue that we provided in the mid-300s for nuclear and say, a mid-30s percent EBITDA margin, that should get you a good jumping off point for the double-digit EBITDA CAGR going through the end of the decade.
Arun Viswanathan
AnalystsPerfect. And then just as a follow-up, maybe if we can just circle back to pricing. And you've provided some commentary here that the old contracts will roll off. And then it sounds like you have been able to secure new contracts in more representative of current pricing. When you think about replacement costs, have cost kind of increased to the point in that, has that been the bigger driver of the price appreciation or is it the lack of supply that's been added to the market? And do you see some support for pricing to continue to be above this kind of $50 level for the foreseeable future? And what would support that? Is it kind of cost or supply-demand dynamics?
Jeffrey Dormo
ExecutivesThanks, Ron. Let me begin by just saying I think it would probably be imprudent for me to forecast too much into pricing into the future. What I can say is that we do have good line of sight and visibility in the contracts that we do have and how they will trend over the next couple of years, which gives us confidence on that. Regarding specifically, as you talk about the pricing trends that have continued, that has been more related to the overall industry dynamics and the demand that is coming through versus simply just a cost change that has happened there.
Operator
OperatorOur next question is from Duffy Fischer with Goldman Sachs.
Patrick Fischer
AnalystsFirst question is just how much benefit do you get by being the only U.S. company? You talked about the Russian and the Chinese product that essentially is boxed out of some markets. But where does being American versus, say, being Canadian or versus being French benefit you? Are there some people that only can take U.S. product, do you think, over time? And do you get a premium, do you think, for being U.S. versus, say, French or Canadian?
Jeffrey Dormo
ExecutivesGreat question, and thank you for the question. As we think about the benefits of being U.S. supply, there's been a lot of interest in domesticating the supply chain. And certainly, we have seen that there is significant interest from utilities and so forth and to derisk and have a local supply chain and something that we've also been working with the administration very closely in terms of how do we make sure that we are able to support growth within the U.S. to support growth within the U.S. for the energy and power demands that are needed. And so certainly, we are seeing that. We're seeing a significant interest from our utilities and from our customers in trying to make sure that they're working very closely with a U.S. supplier.
Patrick Fischer
AnalystsOkay. And then there have been a number of announcements recently about folks that want to get into your space. I guess a couple of questions there. Should investors expect announcements where 1 or 2 other people will start building plants to compete with you in the U.S.? And how many players do you think this market would be able to support over time? Can it support 2 or 3 different players in this space?
Jeffrey Dormo
ExecutivesYes. Great question. I can't really comment on competitors or what decisions they will make and so forth. If I -- if I take a step back and think about some of the things that are going on, I'll start by saying that we've operated like for a number -- for many, many decades with Metropolis, Illinois and ComverDyn being the domestic supplier. So I think we've demonstrated that we have the ability to execute well and to make sure that we are being a reliable supplier to utilities, providing surety of supply. We are excited about our opportunities for expansion and what we need to do there. And we are working closely with the utilities to understand their demand and work with them in terms of having commitments that will underpin our ability to go forward with expansions. And we think that is something that's important to really back our disciplined ROIC approach to any sort of expansion that we will do here.
Operator
OperatorOur next question is from Jeffrey Campbell with Seaport Research Partners.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsFirst of all, kudos for the presentation is very well organized and a lot of great information. If I look at slide, you want to sort of approach the pricing in a little bit different way. When we look at 11 and 12, the contraction of the secondary on 12, I assume that's primarily because of Russia getting shut out of the market. I mean there their period of company all sort of in the market was suppressed for quite some time. And then if we look at 11, it's -- so we have a Western supply market, which is you guys and bearing in mind the cost it only represents about 5% of the total uranium if we think of your pricing level, there's more like a commodity, and it's so utilities negotiated different converters? Or should we think of it that you actually have some pricing power very based on specific customer relationship.
Michael Leithead
ExecutivesJeffrey, you're breaking up there a little bit on the question, but if I parse through the tea leaves a little bit, I think you're trying to get at pricing power versus supply-demand driving price. So assuming that's the question, Jeff, why don't you take a stab at that and then you can come back afterwards.
Jeffrey Dormo
ExecutivesYes. Maybe I'll begin just by commenting, I think there were some questions on secondary supplies that from other areas, specifically Russia or China. And I think the very simple answer is to say is no. That's actually not where it's coming from. So that is not something that's indicative of that. It is other industry dynamics that really happened during that period. And that's why earlier we commented that we feel very confident about the secondary supply being at the -- an appropriate point and one that is not really going to be a meaningful impact going forward from here. Regarding the other questions around pricing, we do have the relationships with our customers. I think we have between the relationships, the reliability and so forth, which really is critical. I think that gives us an ability to have meaningful discussions and value-based pricing discussions with our customers as we are delivering value to them in the services and products that we provide there.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsOkay. Yes, that's helpful. And I guess my other question is just what is the logic of selling your UF6 through ConverDyn as opposed to just selling it yourself. I mean I'm sure there was some historical thing there. But as we're going forward and the demand is increasing and you're going to invest more and more in on production. Is there any kind of scenario where you would rather have that total control of that marketing yourself versus the current structure?
Jeffrey Dormo
ExecutivesSure. Great question. can give a little bit of context on that. I think you began to get at it in terms of if there is some historical context as to the reason for the joint venture and why it presented there. ConverDyn is the 100% offtake agreement of the UF6 produced at metropolis. And so that is the underlying JV agreement that we have and why it is structured that it is going through that joint venture.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsOkay. So there's no -- there were no -- there wouldn't be any appetite to eventually assume that marketing yourself. Obviously, you're happy with the structure as it is now.
Jeffrey Dormo
ExecutivesYes. We are happy with the structure. And at this point, I really can't comment on the JV with General Atomics. What I can comment on with that is that General Atomics has been very supportive and constructive partners for decades as we have done this, and we continue to be excited about the prospects within this.
Operator
OperatorThere are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Leithead for closing comments.
Michael Leithead
ExecutivesGreat. Well, look, I really appreciate everybody joining us for the past hour to spend some time to talk about our nuclear business. If you have any follow-up questions, please feel free to reach out to myself or the broader IR team. Thank you, and have a great day.
Operator
OperatorThank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect at this time, and thank you for your participation.
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