Sotera Health Company (SHC) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
May 15, 2024
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Sean Dodge
analystThanks, everyone, for being here at RBC's 2024 Global Healthcare Conference. My name is Sean Dodge, and I am the health care IT, health care services analyst here at RBC. I'm pleased to be joined by our next presenting company, which is Sotera Health and here on behalf of the company is Jon Lyons, who's the Chief Financial Officer; and then Jason Peterson, who runs the Investor Relations. So special thanks to both of you for joining us today.
Sean Dodge
analystI want to start, Jon, just with your 2024 guidance and your execution towards that. So you all are targeting 4% to 6% growth for both revenue and EBITDA. You made good progress on that in -- on the revenue side in the quarter. EBITDA missed just a little bit. But maybe just kind of walk us through -- some of the dynamics that are -- you've talked about some headwinds impacting you in parts of the business, maybe just kind of the dynamics around those.
Jason Peterson
executiveYes. Thanks, Sean. And before we get started, I just have to cover off the...
Sean Dodge
analystYes, forward-looking statement.
Jonathan Lyons
executiveSome of the statements I make today may be considered forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings for a description of the risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those projected or implied. The company assumes no obligation to update forward-looking statements. During these discussions, we may talk about certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income, adjusted EPS and net leverage ratio. Please refer to SEC filings for a reconciliation of these measures. Now we can have the conversation.
Sean Dodge
analystSounds good.
Jonathan Lyons
executiveAll right. So I think you asked about our guidance for the year, 4% to 6% revenue growth and some of the challenges we've been facing as we kind of walk into that.
Sean Dodge
analystThat's right.
Jonathan Lyons
executiveI think as you know, Sean, I mean, the business is actually really resilient. If you look over time, I think the business has grown every year since 2005. We started facing some of these headwinds early last year and still put up another year of growth on the top line, which we're really proud of. And we expect to keep working through these headwinds this year and still deliver another year of growth as the guidance implies. We'll leave that with our price performance, right? We have -- we've been -- our long-term guide is that we'll deliver 3.5% to 5% price every year. And we expect another good solid year of price performance this year that will help drive that revenue growth. And the real variability, the real variable in there in the 4% to 6% is how much the volume and mix grows. And as you look over time, what we've been facing in Sterigenics has been really the destocking trend that I think is pretty well documented in the industry. As we work through the year, we think we're in the later stages of that. I'm seeing some signs of improvement off of what's been a pretty -- more recently pretty stable not getting a lot better, not getting a lot worse environment. And as we move into the second half, we expect to start comping positive and seeing -- putting up some volume growth. And then on the Nelson side, there's been a few headwinds that we've talked about. Number one was the deferral of the MDR regulation in Europe. Number two was just as interest rates rose, we saw funding fall for start-ups and new ventures and smaller companies where we do some good business as they try to bring products to market. And then the last thing is connected to the sterilization business. The beauty of the businesses that are pretty connected relative to what Nelson does industrially and what Sterigenics does. And so -- but when the volumes were a little bit lower in Sterigenics, it had a knock-on effect in Nelson. And as we move through the balance of this year, we do expect that core lab testing business to move up.
Sean Dodge
analystOkay. So on the inventory destocking headwinds, for you all? Or are there any -- is this kind of broad-based, widespread? Or are there pockets of customers or types of products or geographies where you're seeing this kind of being particularly challenging?
Jonathan Lyons
executiveYes. Yes, it's really interesting. It's interesting, it changes month-to-month, quarter-to-quarter. But broadly speaking, the trends have been pretty consistent with what we've seen. We've talked about in the past labware. We've talked about bioprocessing, and we talked about general hospital and really, a lot of that is like the kit. So big COVID overhang for the surgical kits, right? And we see that working through right now bioprocessing, labware is still down year-over-year in a pretty meaningful way. But we are seeing some slight improvement sequentially and we're seeing surgical kits actually comp positive or the general hospital comp positive, which is a good sign in the most recent quarter.
Sean Dodge
analystOkay. In bioprocessing and labware, can you give us a sense of what proportion of what you sterilize those couple of categories make up?
Jonathan Lyons
executiveYes. I mean I'll just generally kind of speak about it. When we look at sterilization for Sterigenics, it's about 2/3 med device. And you can imagine, I mean we're -- more than 40 of the top 50 med device companies, more than -- we're 9 of the top 10, we're with 9 of the top 10 pharma companies. We've got a wide range of products and items from those different companies. And then you start looking, we sterilize commercial products, agricultural products in the side of this. So we've got a wide impact on the industry. I would just say that on the bioprocessing side, it's a meaningful important growth vector for us, but it's on the smaller end of our volumes.
Sean Dodge
analystOkay. And you mentioned a couple of categories like hospital kits are already starting to comp positive. Maybe just walk us through how much visibility you have into client sterilization needs ahead of time, and then your guidance assumes this all kind of dissipates midyear. Just what gives you conviction on that.
Jonathan Lyons
executiveYes. Our conviction is really driven by a couple of things. I would say, number one, we are seeing some decent trends. I said, we're not there. I didn't -- we didn't call for the turnaround in the second quarter. But we are seeing some positive movement. I mean, we read the same things and talk to a lot of people like you all do and the people in the room do, where we're looking at what are people saying public about what they expect. And then we're talking to our customers and working to understand what kind of demands they need. But all that -- or what they expect. But all that being said, it's not like I have orders for August right now, right? We have some idea, and we have some expectations, but it is relatively short cycle.
Sean Dodge
analystMaybe turning to the Nelson side. You talked about the Expert Advisory Services part of the business really starting to kind of generate -- or gain some momentum. Maybe just give us a little bit of background on what you all do in that part of Nelson and what's driving some of this growth?
Jonathan Lyons
executiveYes, sure. I mean the business has been performing really well for us. The majority of that business came from an acquisition we did back in 2021 of regulatory compliance associates. And the idea there is really a connecting-rod across the businesses, whereby they helped customers get products to market, regulatory filings and those sorts of things, which you can clearly see sterilization is a key part of that. So you can see how they can be at the front end of something that then connect in for lab testing or for sterilization service going forward. And also, and I think where we've seen a pickup more recently is they help folks work through FDA issues, FDA audits and FDA audits dropped in COVID like a lot of things, and they've come back. And so we've seen an increasing need from our customers to get help working through findings on audits. And that's really what's driven the business up more recently.
Sean Dodge
analystIn Nelson, you also talked about a little bit of a headwind from the deferral of the European regulations. Maybe just talk about what's happening there and then when that's expected to...
Jonathan Lyons
executiveYes. Yes. So I'm sure folks have some background on this. But med device companies as part of the MDR needed to revalidate existing products to ensure compliance, and we were providing a lot of support there. I think beginning of '23, that regulation got postponed to later, like, 2027, 2028. And we had a pipeline of activity that we were working that really fell off -- start falling off kind of towards the end of Q2 and then in Q3 really came off. So we're going to start comping against -- the comps will get easier really starting in Q3 as we cycle past that.
Sean Dodge
analystAnd then maybe turning to the Nordion side of the business. So that's an area where you've got long term, really good visibility, but it can be lumpy quarter-to-quarter. There's also some amount of cobalt-60 that you do source from Russia. Maybe just talk about the business there and your exposure to the Russian sources over the course of this year.
Jonathan Lyons
executiveYes. Yes. No, happy to talk about that. Yes, we're really proud of the way that business executes and the harvest schedules are lumpy, as you mentioned. And you're really at the -- not at the -- somewhat at the mercy right of the utility schedule, right? The purpose of these public utilities is to produce electricity. Cobalt is a nice side opportunity for those utilities to serve some public good and for us to then help sterilize medical products. And so what we're really good at is managing that supply chain and managing the execution around that lumpiness, right? So you do 50% of your volume in one quarter, that takes an incredible amount of operational excellence for that team to kind of execute and get that done. And so we're really proud of the visibility we have and the way we're able to adjust our people, our resources to get that done. For Russia specifically, we start out the year with up to 3% of risk on the top line if we had a disruption in our Russian supply. We disclosed on average, it's about 20% of our supply and in any given year, it can go up to 50%. And I don't see a big change in that going forward.
Sean Dodge
analystOkay. Are there -- how should we think about, again, the long-term visibility you have in to harvest schedules. Maybe just are there some years coming up where the Russian mixes is expect to be a little bit higher than it has been over the last couple of years or...
Jonathan Lyons
executiveYes. I think our disclosure stands on average 20%. And again, it can go up in any given year or a couple of years, but we just recently updated that disclosure, and I think it's good.
Sean Dodge
analystOkay. So maybe going back to Sterigenics. You talked about mix in the Sterigenics business being now a little bit of a headwind the last few quarters. What does that mean when you talk about mix in Sterigenics? Is that geographies where things are being sterilized. Is that the types of products that you're sterilizing?
Jonathan Lyons
executiveYes, overall, mix is a consideration in the business, different products, different geographies can have some differences. The big story for us has been the volume. And so we talk about volume and mix, but the big part of the story is the volume that we already talked about.
Sean Dodge
analystOkay. Is the mix, I guess, more of a structural thing? Or do you see that normalizing at some point?
Jonathan Lyons
executiveLike I mentioned, Sean, I don't see it as a big structural issue. We do good market segmentation and work to drive the mix as best we can over time, that's an objective for the company, but more thinking about the growth and where our product is going to grow and who do we want to be overweight with. But it's not a big issue for us in margins or volumes right now.
Sean Dodge
analystOkay. And then in Sterigenics, you also did talk about inflation being a little bit of a pressure in Q1. Is that primarily labor? Or are there other cost inputs where you're seeing?
Jonathan Lyons
executiveYes. I mean, so interestingly, right, our variable costs are largely in Sterigenics. You got labor, and you've got EO, for example, utility costs, those sorts of things. We had a few points of inflation. It certainly has fallen from where it was in the last couple of years. So it's largely labor a little bit of EO, and that's the -- those are...
Sean Dodge
analystOkay. What has inflation been running at their?
Jonathan Lyons
executiveI mean I don't even know the number off the top of my head, but we were certainly running north of 5% in different areas. And I think you look at our price performance over the last couple of years, our price in Sterigenics ran hotter, I think, over 6% the last couple of years. And that was in response to the inflation environment that we're seeing. So we're really proud of the business. I think there was some skepticism going into that, would this business be able to overcome the inflation and we did.
Sean Dodge
analystOkay. On the Nelson side, like we were talking about the advisory business, there had been really strong, that's as you pointed out, kind of more of a consulting type business. So I'm curious a little bit lower margins than the traditional lab work that you do there. You are guiding to an increasing -- or kind of a ramp in Nelson margins over the course of the year. So maybe just given the strength in the advisory part of the business, maybe what's driving this ramp in Nelson margins.
Jonathan Lyons
executiveYes. Yes. No, good question, Sean. Thank you. When we look at it a couple of things, yes, it's been really strong, but the advisory business is inherently project-based and so a little episodic. We have some projects winding down. So we've kind of got two moving pieces in here that will help margins. One, we expect sequentially -- I'm sorry, the advisory services businesses will come down a little bit. But at the same time, we expect the lab services business -- the lab core testing side of the business to go up. And so those two things moving kind of in opposite directions will have a positive effect on margins.
Sean Dodge
analystAnd you talked before about the linkage between some of the sterilization work and the lab work. And so the expectation that lab volumes start to increase in the back half for the year, it would be tied to the destocking has...
Jonathan Lyons
executiveWe see some good positive signs in some of the funding environments and just what we're hearing from customers around what's coming towards us from a validation perspective.
Sean Dodge
analystOkay. If we think about sales cycles or just kind of visibility on the Nelson side of the business, how much you kind of lead time or advanced visibility you have into revenue there?
Jonathan Lyons
executiveSimilar to Sterigenics. it's also a pretty short cycle. So we'll give a quote, and it could be months before something shows up that are -- could never show up or shows up at our dock door and gets ready for a testing program that could take days to weeks or months, to actually drive revenue and get it done. So again, that's pretty short cycle. And we've just worked the same way, make sure we're close to our customers and understanding what the expectations they have and that we have the service ready to provide. And the great thing about what the team has been doing there, the customer satisfaction, the turnaround times, the service levels are really good in the business right now. And so we think we're well positioned for our customers when they're ready.
Sean Dodge
analystOkay. The final rule for the new NESHAP regulations were released not too long ago. You did have the proposed rule, the final rule looks like it's a little bit different than what was proposed. It sounds like most of the difference was around kind of the monitoring or the ongoing monitoring requirement. Maybe just give us little bit of a high level on what those are and what that means for Sterigenics.
Jonathan Lyons
executiveYes. I mean -- the good thing and the bad thing, may not be the bad thing. The good thing is we've been waiting for a rule for a while. We've been investing to make sure we are ready to comply with the rules where we thought the rule was going. So we're happy to finally have the rule. And we think we're in great shape to ultimately comply with it. Like I said, we've been investing for a while. I think we started investing back in 2019. And so we've had a lot of learning going on over the last couple of years, figuring this was new technology -- not necessarily new technology, new application of technology and figuring out how to make it fit with every facility, which might have a different footprint, different composition of chambers and those sorts of things. Michael and I did a review a couple of weeks ago with the team on the status of our work there. And we just -- we've come a long way, even in the 12 months I've been here, I've seen the evolution of that. And so we think we're ready for the rules. There are a lot of different monitoring requirements, different rules inside that, that we're working to get clarification, make sure we're prepared. So for example, on the permanent enclosure, PTE 204, it's required like the monitoring on the metric is a rolling 3 hour average. And so we have to go in our facility, making sure, you were like, okay, we're measuring it on a 3-hour average, and that where the blips and how they happen and make sure we're -- and we're already developing protocols that are helping us work towards being compliance in that, and then also clarifying all these different rules and how you comply.
Sean Dodge
analystAnd you talked about having already begun preparing for this back in 2019, knowing this was coming well in advance. How many facilities do you have that are subject to this? How many have been completed and how many are left to do as far as complying with the new more stringent regulations.
Jonathan Lyons
executiveYes, I think we have 8 facilities, EO facilities in the U.S. We're making great progress we've got -- I'd say we see the light at the end of the tunnel. We'll get a large way through the balance of our operations. And that so you go facility by facility and get 100%. You might have some of the different aspects of the program going in at different times in different facilities, but we'll be largely through this year, and we'll finish up next year.
Sean Dodge
analystIf we think about just the dollars tied to this, how much have you spent already? And how much is left to go?
Jonathan Lyons
executiveYes. I mean, this year, we're going to spend $40 million. That will put us over $100 million on the program. I do expect that $40 million to step down a bit next year, but we still have a meaningful amount to go. I think really important, too, is we look at the regulations that came in we don't see material increase in what we expected to spend from what our plans were. But again, it's a big number, trending towards $150 million.
Sean Dodge
analystRight. So it's been a little bit of a challenge for Sterigenics but I guess the long-term silver lining here could be the increasing kind of onerousness of operating these potentially makes outsourcing a lot more attractive. So maybe just what proportion of sterilization is outsourced right now? And how do you think maybe these more stringent requirements change that...
Jonathan Lyons
executiveI think a great thing about our -- what we -- one of the things we do really well is operate in highly regulated industries. And for EO, we are an industry leader, and we're going to be here for our customers so they can count on us. I do think you're going to see some things play out with the regulation where some folks may decide to exit, some folks may decide to outsource more after in-sourcing some. We do think the majority of sterilization services across modalities is outsourced today. I'm actually refining those numbers, but there's nothing that tells us it's going in a different direction than outsourcing.
Sean Dodge
analystOkay. And so if we think about just CapEx more broadly, you've guided the $205 million to $225 million this year. We talked about the spending on the facility enhancements, you've also been building some new capacity in the Sterigenics side. There's some investments you made in Nordion in the new innovation or Cobalt-60 development. How should we think about capital expenditures trending over the next couple of years as some of these capacity investments and the enhancements wind down?
Jonathan Lyons
executiveYes. No, good question. We have three big programs going on, the EO enhancements, the Cobalt development and the growth projects. And as I've said before, we expect those to start cycling down in '25 and '26. So we'd expect a sequential decline in CapEx. We're working through, we just starting up our strategic plan, so I'm not ready to give a precise target for where that will end up. But rest assured, it's a high focus for us. We want to make sure that we're supporting the business and also mindful of our free cash flow generation because it's really important that we start generating some strong free cash flow coincident with our strong operating -- ability to generate strong operating cash flow.
Sean Dodge
analystCould you give us a sense of, well, like a maintenance level for CapEx would be either in terms of percent of revenue or dollars?
Jonathan Lyons
executiveYes. And that maintenance number has come up a bit over -- people look back 4, 5 years ago with the business. We've had increased our level of maintenance, we're, I'd say, about $60 million of maintenance and that can be plus or minus $10 million in a given year. And when I look -- when I talk about maintenance, it's your typical facility maintenance, you got to fix the roof. You have some equipment you need to repair but also our replenishment of cobalt is our gamma facilities is included in that.
Sean Dodge
analystOkay. And then just turning to the litigation for a moment. You recently settled some cases in Georgia. Just maybe any update on the time lines there when the remaining ones are expected to go to trial and then how many cases remain in Georgia?
Jonathan Lyons
executiveYes. Yes, there's about 260 cases remaining. We're pleased to get that settlement behind us, I think we got 79 cases done. So we're happy with that. And we think we have a good opportunity to put on our defense because we think the science behind our defense is really strong. And we think we have an opportunity like in the Fornek case, we think we can win. And this next phase of the -- happens in Cobb County starting later this year with Phase I on the first 8 cases. once whatever survives Phase 1, general causation goes to Phase 2 specific causation, we'd expect a ruling on Phase 1 early. The next phase to come later in '25, and then if anything survives to the third Phase of a jury trial, we'd expect that in '26.
Sean Dodge
analystOkay. And there's also the situation in California. I think a lot of people naturally are going to look to what happened in Illinois and what happened in Georgia as a proxy or some way I'm trying to quantify California. Maybe just kind of outline for us the similarities and kind of the dissimilarities between California and the others?
Jonathan Lyons
executiveYes. I mean given the recent sees, I'll probably hold off on too many comments here, right? We've got a pretty, I think, extensive FAQ on our website, but I'd just say a couple of things. Number one, back to what I said earlier, we think the science in our defense is very strong, and we'll look to continue fighting on this because we don't think we cause the illnesses that been alleged. The second thing I would call out on this is around the local regulator who has published or publicly showed that testing in the neighboring community is background levels of EO. So we think that's a good fact just to point to. But again, we have an active litigation going on. So there's going to be many, many facts and many things to discover. And the last thing I would just highlight is that this has been pushed to the complex docket in California where I think they're better equipped to handle the complexity of the things that are involved in this type of litigation.
Sean Dodge
analystAnd is there anything kind of initial time line you can provide there?
Jonathan Lyons
executiveI mean, I think there's no court management or there's no order yet on case management and it stayed right now pending that.
Sean Dodge
analystOkay Maybe just in our last few seconds here. We'll talk about balance sheet leverage, so 3.8x now. We talked about tapering CapEx, maybe just capital priorities and just where you feel comfortable with leverage kind of longer term?
Jonathan Lyons
executiveYes. Yes. I definitely am targeting lower leverage. We think we have a great opportunity to delever naturally as we expect this business to continue growing just like we have year after year, continuing to produce more EBITDA will help us delever. And is just from a priorities perspective, organic growth in the business. I expect we contemplate some debt paydown and then opportunistic M&A. I still think we have some opportunity there, and we'll continue to pursue things that we think are valuable for our shareholder.
Sean Dodge
analystSounds good. That's a good place to leave it. With that Jon, thanks again, very much for being here.
Jonathan Lyons
executiveThanks Sean. Thank you for having us.
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