South32 Limited (S32) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everyone. We might as well kick off. I think [indiscernible] that's most people here. Alex and Sian missed their train, so people might sort of come in a little bit later. Can't find the place? Well, I'll give you the tip. Alex couldn't find the place. Look, I guess, first, welcome, everyone, for joining us today for the briefing on South32 strategy, and it's great to actually see people face-to-face again rather than by Zoom. I also want to thank those people who have actually dialed in via the webcast. And to let people know, I'm obviously joined here with Alex and Tom, but also online, we've got our Chief Financial Officer, Katie Tovich; who's had a bit of flooding in her house; and Brendan Harris, who you all know, is our Chief Human Resources and Commercial Officer. They're both dialing in from Perth. Brendan has actually had COVID. It was an interesting time for us. Last week, we just marked our seventh anniversary as a company. And in many ways, while it feels like it's gone fast, in other ways, it feels like it's gone slow. But I think what we're really looking forward to today is talking to you about where we're up to as a company and really to what has been over the last 12 months quite a transformational time. If we sort of move ourselves to this slide. As always, I draw your attention to the important notices now on the screen. And we'll just move on to acknowledging our country. Before we get this underway, I'd like to acknowledge the Gadigal people of Eora Nation on whose land I'm speaking from today. Katie and Brendan are coming to you from the land of the Whadjuk people of the Noongar nation. I pay my respects to their elders both past and present and acknowledge the indigenous and tribal peoples of all the lands on which South32 is located and where we conduct our business around the world. The presentation today was actually loaded up on to the stock exchange and is available on our website, and we look forward to the opportunity for questions for those in the room and on the webcast following the presentation. So perhaps if we start with an overview of what does South32 look like in 2022. The short answer is very different to the South32 even 12 months ago and significantly different to how we looked at the time of the merger in 2015. One thing that hasn't changed is our purpose, and that is to make a difference by developing natural resources, improving people's lives now for generations to come. We are trusted by our owners and partners to realize the potential of their resources. Shortly, I'll take you through some of the changes that have taken place already and those that are underway that have enabled us to become the company we are today, a truly global, diversified producer of the metals critical to a low-carbon future. Our favorable commodity mix and recent portfolio improvements supported record earnings and shareholder returns in the first half. And as you can see, we're expecting growth of more than 20% and from our financial year '21 baseline in the next financial year. Beyond 2023, we have further significant growth potential, the study outcomes through our world-class development options in North America underline their potential to supply critical minerals into the future. None of this would be possible without our consistent execution and our strong balance sheet. I won't spend too much time on our strategy because I've spoken about it in the past, but our strategy is relatively simple, optimize, unlock and identify. It's at the core of everything we do, and it's underpinned by a disciplined approach to capital management. So I'll run you through the highlights of our strategy. We optimized our business by working safely, by minimizing our impact, by delivering stable and predictable performance and by continually improving our competitiveness. We unlock the full value of our business through our people, innovation, projects and technology, and we identify opportunities to sustainably reshape our business for the future and create enduring social, environmental and economic value. For someone who's been in the industry for many decades, I've seen time and time again the positive impact that mining can have on the world, and we know that we have an important role to play in delivering outcomes that benefit all of our stakeholders. Our approach to sustainability focuses on 5 interconnected pillars, which you can see on the left of the slide. We have a significant amount of work underway to improve our safety performance, create a work environment where everyone feels safe and realize our climate change commitments. And we are pleased that our progress across our sustainability metrics has been recognized by our third-party ESG rating agencies. Over the next few slides, Brendan, Katie and I will take you through how we are working safely, our progress on inclusion and diversity and our approach to climate change and achievements to date. Our commitment to safety is part of everything we do and every decision we make. The most important commitment that we make is that everyone at South32 goes home safe and well at the end of their shift. Our current safety performance is not where it needs to be. And during the period, we initiated a safety system of work. This is a multiyear program designed to achieve a step change in our safety performance. Following many months of work and consultation with our people, we completed our revised global safety standard document to clearly define the minimum requirements when it comes to safety at South32. It applies to everyone at South32 including employees, contractors and visitors and covers all operations, functions, projects and greenfields exploration. The revised safety standard is a foundational element of our 3-year safety improvement plan, which was developed to fundamentally shift our safety performance. Our revised safety standards and new safety improvement plan provide a strong foundation for the work we need to do to become an industry leader when it comes to safety. I'll now hand to Brendan to talk to the work we are doing in the IND space. Brendan?

Yes. Good morning, everyone, and thanks, Graham. Apologies that I can't be there today. Look, around 12 months ago, we asked a diverse group of our people to fundamentally review our approach to inclusion and diversity. They spoke with hundreds of team members and analyzed some 2,500 lines of feedback from right across our cultural footprint. What did that tell us? Well they said we've been at the forefront in the past with a number of initiatives, parental leave, flexible work and gender diversity at the most senior levels. But they also told us that we needed to move away from an initiative-based approach to a holistic, sustainable program of work, where I&D is ingrained in everything we do, from hiring to onboarding, exit and retirement, talent development, the physical workplace and everything in between. This critical piece of work led to our I&D action plan for FY '22 and the appointment, I'm pleased to say, of our first I&D manager at the group level. We've also taken another deep look at our facilities in every location, and we've added controls to enhance physical and psychological safety. In a major milestone, we've also approved and published our first I&D standard. It will be rolled out through FY '23. It establishes core and common requirements, including the need for every location to have a risk bow tie for bullying and harassment just as we do for other safety risks. Of course, we're only going to have a truly inclusive and diverse workplace if we get culture right, and that's never going to be about systems, rules or processes but rather the things we all believe in, our purpose and values, Graham talked to them: the way they drive everyday decisions, the way they connect and respect one another and we all behave. That's what our leadership fundamentals and living our code programs are designed to promote so that everyone feels safe, speaking up, bringing challenge and fresh ideas. While COVID-19 presented numerous challenges, it actually forced us to think differently and do more to stay engaged. It also prompted us to develop a new engagement tool. We call it Your Voice, as our people give us direct feedback on safety, leadership, engagement and the employee experience, including, I should say, bullying, harassment, and importantly, sexual harassment. It's too early for me to reveal the first results, but I can say, we've seen a strong increase in participation and engagement, some great numbers. So we're working to a detailed sustainable plan, and we are looking for a step change in the way our people experience our culture. If we get that right, the important data you can see on the left of the screen will, we believe, take care of itself, at least to some extent. So with that, Katie, over to you.

Thanks, Brendan. Our approach to climate change is aligned with our purpose and integrated with our strategy. It's designed to protect and unlock long-term value, build operational resilience and enhance our competitive position in a low-carbon economy. Within the first 12 months of being established as South32, we set a goal of achieving net zero Scope 1 and 2 operational greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Since that time, we've also set a target to halve our Scope 1 and 2 operational greenhouse gas emissions from our FY '21 baseline by 2035. In order to achieve these targets, we're directing capital to projects at our existing operations with approximately $140 million allocated over the next 2 years. Our approach to decarbonization, including our investment in capital projects, is consistent with the delivery of our strategy. And we intend to decarbonize our operations through the combination of efficiency projects, transition to low-carbon energy sources and through the application of technology. At our growth projects, we will incorporate low emissions technologies into the design of our projects. And more broadly, we've been reshaping our portfolio through the lens of our climate commitments, and we've been partnering with others to address value chain emissions and support our just transition planning. In FY '21, Worsley Alumina, Illawarra Metallurgical Coal and our 2 African aluminum smelters accounted for approximately 90% of our Scope 1 and 2 emissions. This year, we've continued to progress our work to address our largest carbon exposures. At Worsley, we've completed a pre-feasibility study for the mud-washing efficiency project, which is expected to deliver a trifecta of benefits; improved environmental performance in both water and energy efficiency; lower costs; and improved safety outcomes as we decommission 5 flat bottom thickeners. The project is also expected to deliver a strong double-digit internal rate of return based on our pre-feasibility study outcomes. At Worsley, we've also completed a pre-feasibility study for the low CapEx conversion of the first of 3 coal-fired boilers. This will start our journey to convert the energy sources at Worsley from coal to gas initially while assessing the potential to utilize renewables over the longer term. At Hillside, we commenced the rollout of the AP3XLE energy efficiency technology and completed studies on the technical feasibility of deploying renewables to power the smelter. While at Mozal, our focus is to extend the hydro power contract beyond 2026, when it's due to expire. At Illawarra, we're working to reduce our fugitive methane emissions. We were recently awarded AUD 15 million grant from the New South Wales government to construct a commercial pilot ventilation air methane abatement facility at the operation. And we're doing this in collaboration with the CSIRO. As Graham has already noted, in the past year, we also took significant steps to reshape our portfolio, making value-accretive acquisitions and restarting capacity in the metals critical to a low-carbon future. In January, we also completed the pre-feasibility study for the Taylor deposit at Hermosa, applying low carbon design principles. In terms of our broader value chain emissions, we're also partnering with others for collective action. We've joined Responsible Steel, a multi-stakeholder initiative, to enhance the responsible sourcing, production, use and recycling of steel, and we're partnering with KCC Chartering to reduce greenhouse gas emissions associated with the shipping of caustic soda for our operations in Australia. Lastly, we also aligned our commitment to action with our commitments to our financing partners, completing the refinancing of our revolving credit facility as a sustainability-linked line, making South32 one of the first in the mining sector to do so. And with that, I'll hand back to Graham for a business overview.

Okay. Thanks, Katie. This slide here, I think, is a critical slide because it starts to tell you the story of how our business has evolved since the demerger. At the time of the demerger, the foundation of our business was a high-quality manganese ore business, alumina and coal for steelmaking. So we had a large percentage of businesses such as Energy Coal, TEMCO, et cetera, metalloids that had low margins and a lot of effort and time. What you have seen over this duration is we have sharpened our focus to the commodities needed for a low-carbon future. And you can really see that, since 2015, we've increased our exposure to these metals from 53% to 74%. And with the growth options we have in our portfolio, we will seek to further increase that. If you look at the graph on the right-hand side, you can also see that over time, we expect the group margins to benefit from this change following our exit from lower returning businesses, including energy coal, manganese alloys, et cetera. As I mentioned, our portfolio has undergone substantial improvements over the past 12 months, but the work to make this happen has been in the pipeline for a number of years. We also have a pipeline of projects to improve productivity and grow volumes into structurally attractive markets. We've recently added copper through the acquisition of our 45% interest in the Sierra Gorda mine in Chile. We also delivered first metal from the restart of the 100% renewable power smelter at Brazil Aluminum. To [indiscernible] our acquisition of an additional shareholding in Mozal Aluminum, we'll be growing our green aluminum production by more than 100%. Our next phase of growth is expected to come from our base metal development options in North America, a strategically important jurisdiction for critical minerals. And we continue to invest to discover our next generation of mines, advancing work at more than 25 active greenfield exploration programs that we have. In the coming slides, I will also run you through some of the brownfield options we have across our portfolio that are either in execution or study phase. Along with our growth projects, these create competition for capital in our portfolio, something we didn't have in abundance at the time of the demerger. Katie will now take us through how that plays out in practice with our capital management framework, our approach to managing our balance sheet, maximizing shareholder returns and our outlook for capital expenditure given the changes made to the portfolio.

Thanks, Graham. Our capital management framework remains unchanged and is right for South32. It supports investment in our business, offers balance sheet protection in the lows and rewards shareholders as our performance improves while also driving strong competition for capital. Our priorities for cash flow center on maintaining safe and reliable operations and an investment-grade credit rating through the cycle. We then distribute a minimum 40% of underlying earnings as ordinary dividends. And you can see on the slide how our framework is benefiting the business and our shareholders. Since demerger, we have returned $4.4 billion to shareholders through ordinary dividends, special dividends and our on-market share buyback. We've directed $3.1 billion to acquisitions to create value by improving our portfolio. $4.1 billion has been invested by us in our existing operations to optimize and unlock value. And we've retained $400 million to keep our balance sheet strong. To Brendan's earlier point, at the time of demerger, our pool of opportunities to compete for capital was limited. However, if you fast forward to 2022, our recent investments in high-returning options that have competed for, and won capital, has seen us deliver a very strong return on invested capital of 25% in the first half of FY '22. Looking ahead, our focus remains on managing our balance sheet well and continuing to build our strong track record for shareholder returns while also investing in organic and inorganic opportunities that can continue to drive improvement in return on invested capital. As I noted on the prior slide, we target an investment-grade credit rating through the cycle. While we don't have a specific net debt target, we take an appropriately conservative approach to our balance sheet and test our investment-grade credit metrics in a sustainable low price scenario to determine our optimal balance sheet at each reporting period or when making any major investment decisions. This analysis takes into account the dynamics of the markets in which we operate and our forward capital commitments, which do change through time. We then determine the excess cash we have available and make an assessment of the most efficient way to return it to shareholders. As in the past, we will only return excess cash that's in our bank accounts. We won't return cash prospectively, but you also won't see us hoarding cash on the balance sheet. History has shown that this is a prudent approach and has benefited our shareholders, underlined by our ability to balance returns and make significant investments in our business, continue our on-market share buyback through the cycle over the past 5 years and pay a record $404 million dividend in April. So what does this mean for our balance sheet today? We retain access to significant liquidity with our cash on hand and an undrawn $1.4 billion revolving credit facility. And in addition, we've further diversified our funding sources with our recent refinancing of the Sierra Gorda acquisition facility with a well-priced 10-year bond in the U.S. 144A market, achieving a fantastic outcome that further improves our balance sheet flexibility. As a result of our continued strong operating performance and favorable price tailwinds, we have generated strong cash flows across the current financial year. Accordingly, our financial position remains strong. We finished April at essentially a neutral net cash position despite funding the acquisition of Sierra Gorda and paying out a record dividend to shareholders. Looking forward, we expect to continue building cash ahead of 30 June. And we're currently in the market buying back our shares with approximately $260 million left on our capital management program. Consistent with prior periods, at the full year, we will do what we've always done. It's just to make an assessment as to the most efficient form of returning any remaining balance on that capital management program, and we'll further assess whether the program will be extended or topped up through the allocation of any excess capital. Turning now to our capital expenditure outlook. We will continue to allocate capital in a way that first prioritizes safe and reliable operations while also directing investment towards decarbonization projects to achieve our targets and the delivery of our attractive growth pipeline. As I said earlier, we do this always with the intention of driving competition for capital and ultimately delivering improvement in our return on invested capital over time, which is the key objective of our capital management framework. As I look forward today, across our portfolio, we have opportunities to invest in our business to grow production and extend asset lives supported by the attractive long-term dynamics for many of the commodities we produce. As you can see from the slide, spend on improvement and life extension capital is expected to increase in the next 2 years as we invest in decarbonization at Worsley Alumina with our mudwashing efficiency project and direct capital to establish new mining areas at Worsley and South Africa Manganese. The step-up in safe and reliable capital spend primarily reflects a full year of expenditure at Sierra Gorda, investments to support Appin's transition to a single longwall at Illawarra Metallurgical Coal and capital for the restart of the Brazil aluminum smelter. We're also investing in growth at the Taylor project at Hermosa where we've commenced precommitment spend on orebody dewatering and early works. We expect to spend $90 million in FY '22, including approximately $35 million of precommitment spend, and we will provide FY '23 guidance for the project with our full year results, noting that FY '23 is expected to incorporate the remainder of the precommitment capital at Taylor, which is approximately $300 million, and will also come from the total preproduction capital estimate of $1.7 billion that we provided in January this year. Finally, as a reminder, we do expect to make a final investment decision for Taylor in mid-2023 following the conclusion of the current feasibility study. Now turning to shareholder returns. As I referenced, with respect to our capital management framework, our disciplined application has supported our strong balance sheet and meant shareholders have benefited through time as our financial performance improves. Through our capital management program, we have returned $1.8 billion to shareholders over the past 5 years, and we have approximately $260 million left to return ahead of the program's extension or expiry in September. Returns via our ongoing capital management program, in addition to our ordinary dividends, have contributed to our minimum payout ratio of 40%, more than doubling to 83% of underlying earnings since demerger. We continue to see value in a buyback program with duration, which enables purchases of shares through the cycle, and we consider this a key element of our flexible capital management program, which also provides important competition for internal capital. Our flexible and value-driven approach to the on-market share buyback has resulted in an average buyback price of $2.92 per share, delivering significant value to our shareholders over time. Our buyback has also reduced our shares on issue by 13%, benefiting the dividends per share that shareholders received through time. Looking forward, our commitment to our minimum ordinary dividend of 40% of underlying earnings remains a core element of our capital management framework. And we will continue to return excess cash to shareholders in the most efficient manner possible, either through the continuation of our on-market share buyback or, when appropriate, as special dividends but always with a strong balance sheet and a focus on improving ROIC in mind. And with that, I'll hand back to Graham.

Thanks, Katie. The next 3 slides will take you through some of the key areas of our business. To start with, our alumina and aluminum operations, where we have an integrated position that allows us to benefit as value shifts up and down the value chain. Through our bauxite mines, refineries and aluminum smelters, we continue to deliver incremental improvements in refining with debottlenecking benefits accruing at both refineries following historical and ongoing investments. Illustrating this, our FY '23 volumes are on track to increase by 5% at Worsley and 11% in Brazil from the FY '19 baselines. Staying in Brazil, we recently completed the acquisition of additional stake at the MRN bauxite mine, increasing our ownership to 33%, further aligning our bauxite supply requirements with our aluminum value chain there. Our increased interest in MRN marks an important step as we work with other joint venture partners to complete a pre-feasibility study for the MRN life extension project. Lastly, in aluminum, we expect to grow our total production base to 1.23 million tonnes in FY '23 following the Mozal acquisition and restart the Alumar smelter in Brazil. All of this growth is coming by way of green aluminum, something I'll discuss in more detail shortly. Our base and precious metals operations are diversified across copper, nickel, zinc, lead and silver. Along with our growth in green aluminum, our base metals business is also where we're investing most aggressively in growth, supported by our long-term outlook for markets. In February, we acquired a joint control interest in Sierra Gorda a large open-cut operation in the prolific Antofagasta region in Chile that is expected to produce copper equivalent production of approximately 200,000 tonnes per annum on a 100% basis over the medium term. At Cannington, our underground silver, lead and zinc mine in Queensland, the operations transition to 100% trucking remains on track for the current quarter, allowing further high-grade material to be brought forward without adding costs. While at Cerro Matoso, our integrated open cut nickel ore mine and ferronickel smelter, production continues to benefit from the completion of a major furnace refurbishment in FY '21. And this follows a period of sustained success since demerger, increasing ore feed grades at the furnace initially through the high-grade La Esmeralda satellite deposit and more recently, from the addition of ore from the low-capital, higher-grade QMP deposit, a project that delivered an IRR over 100%. At Cerro Matoso, we're now on track to complete the OSMOC improvement project. This project has a total capital investment of just USD 222 million and again delivers a further improvement in nickel volumes and an IRR of over 100%. Even more importantly, for the future of Cerro Matoso, its successful completion may also satisfy our option with the government to extend the life of the operation by 15 years to 2044. Lastly, to update you on our steelmaking raw materials business. As many of you know, we produce high-quality manganese ore in Australia and South Africa as well as coking coal for steelmaking at Illawarra mines in Australia. In manganese, we have increased our volumes by 21% since the merger, developing a new market with our low-cost PC02 fines product and optimizing our sales mix in South Africa as we respond to the structural changes we have witnessed in the market conditions. Looking forward, we are undertaking studies and further exploration programs to extend the life of GEMCO and to assess potential expansion and modernization of rail loading infrastructure vessels in South Africa. At Illawarra Metallurgical Coal, we are investing to support the transition of the complex Appin mine to a single longwall. The transition to longer panels at Appin is expected to bring capital and operating cost efficiencies for the mine beyond 2025, supporting the sustainability of the Appin mine into the future. We also recently resubmitted our environmental approvals for the continuation of mining activities at Dendrobium. If approvals are granted and the project is approved by our Board, it would extend the life of Dendrobium to around 2041. Our submission for environmental approvals reflects an optimized mine plan extracting the highest value coal from the resource with the lowest gas content. The new plan reduces the overall footprint by about 60%, lowering the capital intensity of the project. Turning now to our near-term production growth. We expect to benefit from our recent investments in new operations and improvement projects, which we expect will grow at group-wide copper equivalent production by 20% in the next financial year. This includes first-time volumes in Sierra Gorda, the restart of Brazil Aluminum with renewable power and an agreement to increase ownership in Mozal Aluminum. Lastly, the QMP and OSMOC improvement project at Cerro Matoso and production creep at Worsley Alumina are also expected to contribute to higher group volumes in FY '23. Just to expand a little bit more on Sierra Gorda, it is a large open pit copper mine that brings immediate volume and future growth optionality to our portfolio. We believe it was acquired at a compelling valuation based on current earnings, installed infrastructure and the future potential of growth that exists at that operation. The acquisition will immediately contribute to earnings and help improve our group operating margin. It is a substantial copper business benefiting from more than $5 billion of historical investment on a 100% basis. We were attracted to Sierra Gorda for a number of reasons. Although the operation got off to a difficult start after its opening in 2014, the operating team on the ground has made sustainable, long-term improvements in recent years, supporting record production on plant throughput in 2020 and 2021. It has excellent access to experienced labor, infrastructure and renewable power. And as you can see, there are multiple opportunities to unlock further upside at this operation in areas that are already in execution like the plant debottlenecking project, which is expected to lift all mill values by 6% to 50 million tonnes on a 100% basis and improve copper recoveries to about 85%. There are also additional value options to increase volumes during study phase, including the potential of the plant with a fourth line and the establishment of an oxide processing facility to take advantage of more than 100 million tonnes of stockpiled oxide ore. In addition, Sierra Gorda has the potential for regional exploration with a large land package that has a number of identified targets. While it's early days in our ownership, so far, we've been encouraged by the joint venture team's performance on the ground and with the progress being made on these opportunities to unlock future value. We've already spoken about our exposure to green aluminum briefly, but I'd like to go into a little more detail on our near-term growth here. We expect our share of green aluminum production to double in the next 12 months with the restart of the Brazil aluminum smelter and our increased shareholding in Mozal Aluminum. We produced our first metal from the Brazil aluminum smelter just last month. And if all goes to plan, we expect the smelter to achieve nameplate capacity in the third quarter of FY '23. Our decision to restart was underpinned by the smelter having access to existing infrastructure, our own supply of alumina and long-term green energy sources. The smelter's new cost-efficient renewable power contract comes from a mix of solar, wind and hydro sources with 2/3 of it being U.S.-denominated, eliminating exposure to local currency fluctuations. We expect the smelter to sit in the second quartile of the group alumin -- sorry the global aluminum site cost curve, positioning it to benefit from our positive outlook for green aluminum while remaining resilient through the cycle. The restart also further integrates our Brazilian business with our share of alumina to be sourced in the co-located Alumar refinery and our acquisition of the additional stake in the MRN bauxite mine, aligning our access to bauxite for our integrated aluminum supply chain. Now to where we see the next phase of growth, which is expected to come initially through our development options in North America. You can see here that the Hermosa's project Taylor deposit is now in feasibility stage, which is assessing its potential to be a sustainable low-cost zinc, lead and silver operation ahead of a final investment decision, which is expected in 2023. We also have a second project at Hermosa named Clark in prefeasibility phase. Our 50% owned Arctic project at Ambler Metals is also in the pre-feasibility stage. We then have multiple exploration and study phase projects across our portfolio, providing further opportunities to expand volumes. They include the Sierra Gorda oxide project as well as the regional exploration I mentioned earlier. The Hermosa region exploration program included the Peake and Flux prospects, and our regional exploration program at Ambler as well as more than 25 greenfield partnerships in attractive jurisdictions targeting the discovery of our next generation of base metal mines. I'll now talk briefly about the Hermosa project in Arizona. When discussing Hermosa, we always talk to 3 sources of value: the Taylor deposit, the Clark deposit and the regional land package. As I said, Taylor is now in feasibility stage. The recently completed pre-feasibility study demonstrated its potential to be a globally significant and sustainable producer of metals critical to a low-carbon future in the first quartile of the industry cost curve. Taylor is a large 138 million tonne mineral resource with initial resource life of about 22 years that remains open at depth and laterally. Highlighting the potential upside to the mine life, we have identified an exploration target of between 10 million and 95 million tonnes based on work done today. We believe Taylor has potential to be a large-scale, highly productive underground mine supported by dual shaft access to prioritize higher-grade ore in early years and ore body geometry, which enables multiple concurrent mining areas and nameplate capacity of up to 4.3 million tonnes per annum. The project is located close to infrastructure, skilled service providers and the increasingly critical supply chains in North America, where zinc was recently added to the United States Critical Minerals list. Separately, a scoping study for the Clark Deposit has confirmed its potential to produce battery grade manganese, a market with significant potential. Like zinc, manganese, too, has been included in the United States Critical Minerals list. Along with these 2 defined deposits, we have the highly prospective land package at Hermosa that has increased in size by 66% since our original acquisition. With this land package, we have identified a highly prospective corridor that has raised a number of priority targets. The copper and polymetallic Peake exploration target has already shown encouraging copper intercepts with further exploration drilling at the prospect commencing recently. There are also plans to drill a Flux project in late 2022 once we get approvals, which is located down-dip of a historic mining area similar to how Taylor was originally discovered. In terms of the potential for this broader land package, while we know we have significant future days with Taylor, we believe we are yet to truly scratch the surface of Hermosa's full potential. When it comes to exploration, we have established several options to discover our next generation of base metals operations. We were an early mover in exploration and that helped us to unearth the opportunities at Hermosa and Ambler Metals. We expect to spend around USD 60 million in FY '22 on our exploration strategy to identify, advance and cycle options. Just to run through some of our greenfield exploration highlights. We have drilling programs planned or underway in 5 countries; and mapping, sampling, geophysics and project generation studies across 25 projects. One of our most advanced opportunities is in the Chita Valley copper project with Minsud Resources in Argentina, where funding for the third phase of exploration has just begun. Our program to date has generated numerous prospective base metals opportunities focused in the Americas but also in Australia and Ireland as we will continue to go where the geology supports this as we look to discover our next generations of mines in nickel, copper or zinc. I'll now pass to Brendan who will provide a deeper dive than we typically do on the outlook for some of our key markets. Brendan?

Thanks, Graham. So let's move to the current price environment. As you can see on the right-hand side of this slide, many of our commodities continue to benefit from strong underlying fundamentals that are keeping markets tight and providing a significant boost to revenues and underlying profitability. Pleasingly, I can assure you that our price of the day mantra hasn't changed. We're moving our products and we are realizing these elevated prices. The minor exception, just in recent times, has been in our ferronickel business, where specific customers questioned the move in the reference price to around USD 100,000 per tonne. Thankfully, our flows have normalized as the market retreated from its highs, albeit shipping and logistics challenges may delay the process to some extent. And of course, it would be remiss of me not to mention the predominance of revenues coming from those commodities exposed to the structural dynamic of electrification and the transition to a low-carbon world, the aluminum value chain, copper, zinc, silver, nickel and manganese. And of course, through the second half, our high-quality hard coking coal has joined the party. Taking this further, here we show the work we undertook with the help of external experts to understand the longer-term demand impact of a carbon budget being applied to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees, being an annual reduction in CO2 emissions of plus or minus 5% every year to 2050 from current levels of around 40 gigatonnes per year. Unsurprisingly, in this world, we see a rapid increase in electrical -- electric vehicle market penetration, rising from less than 5% of sales in 2020 to around 90% by 2030 and 100% before 2050. And the retooling of major manufacturers and consumer behavior through the pandemic has only actually brought more credibility to this scenario. Putting the numbers into perspective, we see an incremental 350 million-plus EVs produced this decade. And just remember, only 3 million EVs were produced in 2020. More broadly, in this world, we see around 20 terawatts of renewables capacity by 2050 versus 3 terawatts today with a minimum 5 terawatts coming from wind alone. And in effect, that's what you can see represented on the left-hand side of this slide. It's the impact of rising metals intensity as we electrify the global economy. For instance, in every EV, we need 2x and 40% more copper and aluminum than a traditional ICE vehicle. We need to galvanize millions of wind turbines using zinc and enhanced transmission generation and charging capacity, using yet more copper and aluminum and, again, zinc to galvanize much of the supporting infrastructure such that total zinc demand could double by 2040 to 24 million tonnes. So copper is understandably a lovable new economy story, and here's my pitch. Perhaps it's time for zinc and even aluminum to have their own new economy fan clubs too. Having said that, I shouldn't overlook lead. It's one of the few metals where we see strengthening headwinds as the uptake of EVs dampens demand for lead in lead acid batteries and accelerates the scrap cycle as ICE vehicles are taken off the road. Now let's take a closer look at aluminum. What's remarkable looking back to the turn of the century is just how much capacity China added, around 43 million tonnes to be specific at a CAGR of around 13% and then, on the other side, how little has been developed elsewhere. Indeed, in the world x China, production grew at a lackluster CAGR of 2% across this period with new capacity, primarily in the Middle East, India and Southeast Asia, offsetting the curtailment and closure of capacity in the west. And for good reason, of course, as the unrelenting growth in Chinese capacity kept the market more than fully supplied and the price languished cutting deeply into the cost curve for much of that time, despite strong underlying demand growth, which we shouldn't forget, averaged 5% across the 20 years to 2020. Given the recent past, it's, therefore, not surprising that there is a great reticence to say this time is different. But perhaps it finally is time to believe again in what is the lightweight metal of the future. As I highlighted earlier on, we see demand growing robustly into the future, with 15 million tonnes of new supply needed in the 8 years to 2030 net of closures. And that's against the backdrop where we see limited new capacity being built in China, giving a growing focus on environmental factors and energy intensity with an increasing belief that the 45 million tonne capacity cap will hold. In its simplest form, this means almost all of the new supply will be needed to be added outside of China with capacity needing to grow at a CAGR of around 4%. Again, that's double the rate of the last 20 years. What's more, it will need to be supplied by green renewable energy to meet growing demand from the autos and renewable sectors and broader industry for green aluminum. That's why we believe the price will remain at a level high enough, on average, to induce the tens of billions of dollars of investment that is needed. Our long-term price of close to USD 2,600 per tonne assumes this level is directed towards Southeast Asia and includes a green premium of close to USD 300 per tonne that evolves across the decade. Moving upstream to aluminum. Here, we see similarities with aluminum being the increasing reliance on AL units from outside of China, but the drivers are different. The chart on the left-hand side shows the increasing reliance of China on imported rather than domestic bauxite as their own endowment has become stretched, and we expect this demand dynamic and supply dynamic to persist. That's why we think new capacity will be required outside of China to meet growing metal demand that I referred to earlier, and the price will need to justify those investments. For us, this will be closer to USD 400 per tonne than 300, and it implied linkage back in the mid-teens in the longer term. And I should note, and this is important, we see 24% or 20 million tonnes of Chinese domestic alumina capacity being linked to longer-term domestic bauxite reserves in our anti year with their lower quality feed and higher caustic consumption rates requiring a similar pricing dynamic to remain economic. In other words, that's your quality insurance policy. So now shifting gears from aluminum to copper. As I mentioned earlier, we see the potential for copper demand to double in the 20 years to 2040 to almost 60 million tonnes, equating to a demand CAGR of 3.4%. Against that compelling backdrop, like others, we see a dearth of shovel-ready projects from the middle of this decade and note the increasing challenge associated with the environmental and regulatory approvals. Indeed, we see a compounding decline in production of around 4% per annum from 2025 to 2040. So pulling these 2 threads together, the long-held thesis holds true, around 1 million tonnes of new supply, and that's primary supply, will very roughly new Escondida mine will be needed each and every year to offset grade decline and meet growing demand. That's why we see the copper price staying well above the marginal cost of production, in the mid USD 7,000 per tonne range, to incentivize the much needed wave of investment. Of course, commodity dynamics are really linear, and that's the case for copper, too. In the short term, to the middle of this decade, we see a strong supply response with the addition of capacity at Cobre Panama, from our [ Cocola ], Spence and Manchester , just to name a few. To some extent, we expect the market to keep looking through the prospect of near-term surpluses though, given the compounding deficits that loom on the horizon. Turning to zinc. Let's focus on the chart on the right-hand side of this slide. Here, you can see Chinese supply and the LME zinc price across the last decade. What should really capture your attention is the lack of a sustained Chinese supply response on the back of higher prices. And this is where we expect external commentators to make the biggest change in their analysis in the future. Quite simply, we think the ability of Chinese supply to meet the growing needs of the market is overstated. And when coupled with declining mine production in Australia and Bolivia and increasing uncertainty for new Russian supply in the period to 2030, the market just looks tight, with prices above USD 2,500 per tonne needed to compel investment. And finally, to manganese. What you see here is not new. Rising energy costs have supported a preference for high-grade ores and a widening premium. As of last week, the price relativity of South African 37% product to high-grade 44% ores was near all-time lows at 66%. The correlation with total ore stocks is not always clear, and that's why we've again included the chart on the right-hand side, which provides greater granularity for the differing product types. Here, you can see high-grade ore inventories at Chinese ports have declined by around 25% just across the last year. Looking to the longer term, our thesis also remains intact. We expect prices to be set by the marginal tonne in the Kalahari, which will be an underground mine with high capital intensity that will likely need a 44% manganese equivalent price approaching USD 5 per dmtu. We also expect to see rising demand from battery manufacturers as they adopt manganese-rich battery polymers for greater thermal stability, energy density and security of supply with the manganese content in these batteries potentially set to rise from 10% to more than 50% of the overall metal content in the battery. While this won't supplant the steel alloys industry as the primary home for manganese units, it certainly has the potential to be a meaningful new contributor to demand growth. And as manganese units aren't recyclable in the steelmaking process, we are left with still growing demand overall. So another good news story there. Graham, back to you.

Thanks for that, Brendan. So I hope the presentation today has given you an updated position of where we're at in terms of South32 in our journey and the significant changes that have taken place since the demerger and, in particular, in the past 12 months through to today. We cannot have gotten to this point without our people, whose passion, expertise and hard work cannot be overstated. I'd like to sincerely thank our teams across the world for their contribution to our business and our story. Over the past 7 years, our business has undergone a major transition so much so that South32 at the demerger is almost unrecognizable today. A truly global diversified producer metal is critical to a low-carbon future with one of the most exciting growth profiles in the industry as we continue to run our remaining business well. And when I think about the favorable tailwinds we potentially have for our commodities and our recent portfolio improvements supporting record earnings and shareholder returns, it puts us in a great position. The past 12 months have been some of the most exciting in our history. And like I said, there's a lot more to come when you look at the opportunities we have in front of us with our existing operations and development options and our exploration projects. Thank you for your time today. We'll now open to the floor to questions.

I think because there's going to be a bit of a hybrid system going on. So there's people on the webcast who are going to ask questions, which Tom is going to read out. The people in the room can as well. We just need you to basically put your hand up, I'll give you the mic to guide. Just say your name, so people know on the webcast [indiscernible] .

Graham, welcome to Sydney. Good to see you live. And the first is looking back over 8 years want to say congratulations for your consistency and your delivery because it's not just about today. It's about what you've done over that period of time, which leads to my question, which is succession. Graham Kerr, where is he going? You've taken the company over the last 8 years a long, long and set it up incredibly well for the journey ahead. Where are you in that journey? That's my first question, and I've got a follow-up.

Okay. I wasn't expecting that one to be first. Look, from my perspective, Rocky, I think a couple of points. One would be the 7 years in many ways has gone quickly. But as I mentioned earlier, in other ways, it's been a long battle, particularly some of the challenges we've had in South Africa around dealing with South Africa Energy Coal, with obviously the fatalities we've had there but certainly feel like I haven't finished what I wanted to sort of get to before I sort of completed. I'm very conscious that, ultimately, there's people like Katie, there's Brendan, there's Vanessa, et cetera, that are sort of knocking on the door and ultimately will deserve that next opportunity. But there's probably a couple more things I'd like to finish before that time comes around but also conscious that I don't want to be around forever at the same time. So it's probably another couple of years in that space, Rocky, and that's probably -- that will get me close to the end, I'd say. But in saying that, you always serve at the whim of your Board and also shareholders.

Katie, I ask about buyback, the cadence of the buyback and thinking back over the journey of the buyback, the ebbs and flows. Just talk to us about the planning, the strategy implementation, how you buy, when you buy and what style back of late and how those moves measure into some sort of strategy with the buyback.

Yes. Thanks, Rocky. Look, I think, I mean, as we've said from the outset, we have a flexible capital management program, and we tend to pivot between an on-market share buyback or special dividends at various points in the cycle. The intent behind the buyback is that we buy in the market for value. And certainly, what you see, as our share price increases, we do reduce the volumes that we're purchasing in the market, and we tend to shift towards returning excess capital in the form of special dividends. I think that program, if you really look at it, it's been a pretty effective program through time in terms of value creation. We've managed to cancel 13% of shares through that buyback program, which is obviously earnings accretive, EPS-accretive to our shareholders. And certainly, that was the intent of that program. And I think the other sort of core focus from a strategic perspective in terms of that buyback is it creates strong competition for capital with broader options that we have available in our portfolio. So certainly, as I said, we intend and we believe in longevity of that program. And the way we execute it, I think we execute it for value in terms of diminishing volumes through time as the share price increases. Obviously, we've got our own internal valuations. So we do make an assessment as to where we see value. And right now, we're back in the market, albeit for smaller volumes, but we do see value in that share buyback today.

Just saw the transcripts fully onto -- from Goldman Sachs. And hi Katie and Brendan via the virtual. Brendan, sorry, for a question -- first question is on just an observation, I should say, to begin with, on presentations for the global mines more recently. That's certainly been an observation where there's a tilt back to growth and talking about growth for the global mines, but also there's certainly observation from my camp that CapEx is increasing. And probably that's the first question is around the sustaining CapEx estimates for South32. I think, historically, the commentary is always around sustaining CapEx through the cycles around USD 550 per annum and, clearly, inflation coming through. But can you talk through the step-up over the next 2 years? How much of that is inflation? How much of that is bringing forward, for example, mine days at Worsley and South African manganese into the next sort of 2, 3 years? And I have a follow-up on growth.

I mean, look, the first thing I'll probably get Katie to answer that a little bit in more detail, Paul. But I would say, look, the one thing is, obviously, the portfolio has changed a fair bit since day 1, for example, the bringing forward of bringing Sierra Gorda into the portfolio sort of changes that capital profile. And I'd also start with the position that we used to talk about on day 1 when we started South32. We actually had no growth options internally whatsoever. And over time, obviously, just taking Cerro Matoso as a simple example where we've done La Esmeralda, QMP, OSMOC, So projects like that we didn't have in the portfolio sort of come to bear. But maybe, Katie, you can talk a little bit, if you like, about the impacts of Sierra Gorda and what you think the more long-term safe and reliable number looks like.

Yes. Look, I mean, we've always talked to that about $420 million to $520 million range post divestment of South Africa Energy Coal. I think what you see in the chart that we've provided, we see a step up from FY '22 into FY '23 and relative stable position from '23 to '24. That step-up in safe and reliable really is the introduction of Sierra Gorda for a full year coming into our numbers, the incremental CapEx associated with Alumar and Mozal as we increase our ownership interest in Mozal and also the increase that we've talked to in terms of the transition of Appin to the single longwall. So as you look you do see a step up '22 to '23. '24 is probably where I see the peak and we start as we complete the activity at Appin for that transition to that single longwall, you'll start to see that number tend back towards about $700 million, which, if you do sort of the back out, is equivalent found with the new portfolio additions. So around about that $420 million to $520 million range again. I think probably also worth calling out, incrementally, what we're seeing is a step-up in our improvement in life extension capital, which also includes decarbonization. And really, that starts to kick in, in the period '23 and into '24 as we see the inclusion of the mudwashing project at Worsley but also as we see mining areas opening up at Worsley. And we've also got an element of capital in there associated with North Block and rapid load-out at HMN. So you do see a step-up in that life extension capital coming through and we'll continue to provide guidance as we, one, enhance our study work related to decarb capital and improvement capital but also as we continue down the pathway in terms of those life extension projects. Probably the only other thing I did want to call out, we haven't included any guidance in relation to Sierra Gorda fourth line. So that's a piece of work that we're working through with our partners to understand. We'll come back with that as we progress that project through the pipeline. We also haven't included Dendrobium Next Domain in that chart on the slide. And certainly, again, we'll come back to the market once we understand the approval process there and as we work through our thinking in relation to a final investment decision. And then probably the last thing to call out is Taylor and Hermosa CapEx. We did guide $90 million for FY '22 for Taylor. That includes a portion of precommitment spend of $35 million. The Board has approved $340 million of precommitment spend for Taylor. So you would expect, as we move into FY '23, we will provide guidance at the full year. But you would expect that the majority of the balance of that precommitment spend of $300 million flows through into our numbers there, plus the Clark spend and spend on the broader land package. That -- we've talked about the $1.7 billion for Taylor and that $340 million or thereabouts precommitment spend comes off that number.

And just maybe on that fourth line, Paul, I mean, that's still going through the pre-feasibility stage study, but there's a view that, that could actually lift production at Sierra Gorda up to 58 million tonnes.

Yes. Second question I have is on Slide 23, if you can get there on all the growth options, noting that Illawarra manganese, the fourth milling line are not in there. I presume that's because they actually don't increase production, that extends production. This is purely a -- what increases equivalent production across the group. But the question is actually on Sierra Gorda, Graham, just to talk about essentially the timing around fourth milling line oxide as far as potential production increases or production offsets on grade decline and approvals and when these projects could be in production.

Sorry, all specifically around Sierra Gorda, the approvals?

Yes, that's right. So study timing, approvals, first production, what it does to production.

So Katie, as chair of the IC you can maybe talk a bit more around what the pre-feasibility stage study is, but obviously, it's something that sort of came up just as we were completing the acquisition. Though we're pretty open about the correspondence. Again, that has the potential for us to lift up the ore milled by about 16% to about 58 million tonnes, and we're going through that now to understand what the capital looks like. It is essentially the fourth grinding line. So that's a replication of the other 3. So there's nothing new in terms of technology. Katie, I think we're about to start an IPR , do you want to make a comment on that and what we see there, how that's going?

Yes. We've been working through -- we've essentially worked through a range of selection options. And the fourth line has come out as probably the preferred alternative through that process. We had considered [indiscernible] mill option as well. So we are working with our partners at the moment in terms of pre-feasibility study in relation to that fourth line.

And the timing will probably -- by full year results Paul will have a better sense of giving people timing on it. But I mean, approvals, obviously, it goes through the joint venture. There's nothing of the major permitting approval that needs doing.

We've had a question from the webcast from [ Waltman Schorr ] from UBS. The question is the shift to future facing commodities closes the question about Illawarra and its place in the portfolio. Can you elaborate on how you view Illawarra's position in the portfolio in this context?

Look, met coal price is about $500. It's actually doing well at the moment. So that's one simple answer in the short term. Look, I think our view hasn't dramatically changed from what we spoke about at the half year results. So we've probably identified at the time of the demerger that we'd be pushing the group towards a bias to base metals. But it doesn't mean that we're going to give away assets that can generate good cash flow through the cycle. It does mean some of them attract noise. What we have tried to focus on with South Africa Energy Coal, with TEMCO, with GEMCO, so not TEMCO metal ores is to actually get the assets out of the group that actually have low margins and high capital intensity and bring complexity with no benefit. Illawarra is an interesting asset because, traditionally, you've always looked at Appin and Dendrobium go together really well. Appin is slightly better grade material; Dendrobium, slightly cheaper. You combine the 2 together, you get a good blend of product at a lower cost. Obviously, when the IPC surprisingly rejected, if you like, our proposal about 18 months ago, that made us sort of rethink about what are we going to do in that complex. And I guess what we've always talked about is there's probably 3 pieces of core work that we've been working on. One is to actually set up Appin as a stand-alone business, what would it take, what would it look like, how do you actually get in the right position on the cost curve, so you can actually survive through the different cycles that you see in met coal. The second piece was to actually work with the government to actually get Dendrobium Next Domain declared a state significant infrastructure, which we've managed to achieve. We've actually now submitted the EIS, and that's a 24-week review period, of which the most critical piece started on the 4th of May, which is a 6-week public review period process. So that gives the public opportunities to comment on what the proposed mine plan looks like. To sort of put it in perspective, the mine plan is very different. We're focusing on the high-grade material. We're only looking at area 5, not area 6. It's about 6% of the size, lower capital intensity. We think it addresses issues raised by the EPC though we don't sort of agree with them. But at the same time, we need to go through that public process. And because it relies on the Minister of Planning approvals, it is always political, so hence, why we're still doing the work on Appin. The third piece that we've spoken about publicly in the past is obviously BlueScope probably takes roughly 28% to 30% of our products. So they're a large customer. Yes, that changing specs sort of moves, just talking to them about what that blend looks like and what, if any, impact that has on them. But I would say it's probably fair to say one of the areas we have been making progress on because the one thing we won't be done is pushed into making a decision on D&D if we don't think it's attractive, but we have been doing some work and we talked about previously Area 3C, which is a bit more gassy. We've been doing some gas extraction work from that, and originally, we probably looked to have Dendrobium sort of up and running around 2024, 2025. Now it looks like that decision is probably going to be pushed out 2 to 3 years as we get some of these other block areas working. And hopefully, there's an opportunity to find another couple of years in that space. The approvals on D&D last for 10 years. I guess what we're trying to do is build as much optionality as we can. I think, look, the other thing that we continue to look at from Brendan's perspective on the marketing side would be what is the right long-term met coal price particularly as it's hard to send the Bowen Basin, maybe major capital improvements and enhancements coming from like BHP with BMA or even Anglo. So does that make the market much tighter? And if you add $10 to $15 a tonne to that long-term price, it makes quite a significant difference. But at the moment, we're going to do all those pieces of work, of which the most important piece is to get D&D through that, if you like, that review period that's underway now, that 24-week review period.

Glyn Lawcock, Barrenjoey. I've got 2 questions. I'll start with the first one. I mean, obviously, we've only just had a change in government, but I think there's probably 2 policies that I look at. But just curious your take on it. One is the equal pay for equal jobs, whether you think they will have any implications across the industry of your business. And then, I think, the second part of what they're looking at is they have a trajectory for emissions by end of the decade. Just which assets get caught up in there? And does your plan you have get you on the right path to meet the -- what could be the new labor current plan until it changes?

Yes. Look, I mean, the safeguard mechanism probably the 2 operations it will have the biggest impact on would be predominantly Worsley and then probably Illawarra coming behind on that space. Look, the view that we have of Worsley is we're probably already ahead of the curve on that and where they're probably going. Now there might be some short-term issues where we need to use offsets to manage that exposure. But probably post 3 to 4 years with the mudwashing project, converting light Facility 110 from coal to gas, we think we can address that projection pretty easily. So we're not worried about that. And obviously, we've got some work underway at Illawarra with the work that's sort of underway now where the government's help co-funding to reduce. So I'm not too worried. The piece around -- the [indiscernible] piece is interesting because the minerals camp of Australia has been heavily engaged with labor in the lead-up to the election, and certainly, the feedback and the commitment we've got is we see it having minimal impact on our industry because of where they're going to set the rates of pay at and what it actually means. So they're sort of targeting people that are much lower paid than the areas that we have.

Okay. So it's not going to try and go up to truck drivers to make it more pay the same across the country.

Not what we're seeing. I mean politics is politics, but certainly based on the current understanding.

And then the second question is just around the working capital. I think Katie in her presentation gave a partial outline. Can you talk a little bit about -- can you quantify that maybe -- could we see it fully unwind in the fullness of time and how long might that take? Obviously, I know it's subjected to what price does. But could you maybe just flesh it out a bit.

Yes. So probably aluminum will be our biggest exposure, and probably maybe that's one for you, Brendan to talk about since that sits in your wheelhouse.

Yes, that's great, Graham. And perhaps what I'll do is I'll just talk specifically to volume and then throw to Katie, in terms of how we think about the financial impacts. Maybe a little bit of a story first. One of the challenges has been global freight markets. And despite having very long-standing relationships, some of our providers, our charters have actually shown a real reluctance to move vessels down to South Africa over the last 6 months. As you know, there's an enormous amount of vessels tied up in queues. And the market, I guess, is supportive of them doing business another way. We're working through that. But what we've also done is actually put in place a number of what we think are mitigating controls. And one of those primarily was actually to move metal away from Hillside that otherwise could have been, if you like, stuck there with an inability to put it on to containers, to move it through break bulk into Singapore. So one of the reasons you saw that high working capital through December was actually the fact we were holding metal on the ground in Singapore. That's actually now starting to be alleviated. And because of our payment terms, the minute it goes on to a container up into Southeast Asia and broader Asia, it pretty much within 7 to 10 days, typically turns to cash. So look, there's still a lot of uncertainty in these freight markets. There's also been weather-related impacts, obviously, down in South Africa, and there's been some minor challenges with the ship loader at Mozal. But reality is we expect to see our aluminum inventories down relatively materially by the end of this financial year, all things going well. Unfortunately, it's been one of those years when the minute you think that there's always another surprise, but certainly, that's what the numbers are telling us Glyn, and that's the biggest driver of volume. Even with ferronickel, notwithstanding the comments I made about the challenges with some of our customers and the volatility in the LME price and the fact that, that did actually create a dislocation in trade. We also expect to see ferronickel coming back more into line with what we would have seen historically. Outside of that, particularly those of you in Sydney, would know weather has been really challenging on the East Coast. There is a possibility we'll see one slip ship as a result of that coming through at the end of June in the Illawarra, remembering it ships in the order of 70,000 tonnes. So you may see a small building of some inventory there. But on the whole, I think -- we've certainly got inventory very much under control, and I think we've got the volumes coming down. But again, it's a very uncertain world. But Katie, maybe to you?

Yes. Probably the only thing I would add there, Glyn, I mean, you're spot on in terms of the key driver for our working cap build, has absolutely been price, both on the input and the output side. So at December, we talked about a $330 million increase in working cap. You can see from our cash flow slide in terms of the other movements to net cash. Since December, almost 40% of that incremental move has been related to a working capital build as well. So we're sitting above $600 million year-to-date in that space. As Brendan said, the inventory component we have in hand, subject to other variations in logistics constraints, but certainly, the larger portion is price-related. So it really depends where prices go from here.

We've had another question from the webcast from Lyndon Fagan from JPMorgan. What is South32's key projects of decarb spend to 2030? And what is the potential return? And what are the key projects?

Katie, do you want to run through the key projects in the spend?

Yes, sure. So what we've talked to is about $140 million decarb spend over the next 2 years. Look, we don't have a significant number of projects that, at the moment, are in study or toll-gating through the execution phase. The biggest project that we've got at this stage is the Worsley debottlenecking project and then, of course, the coal to gas transition project. Incrementally, we're doing the piece of work at Illawarra in terms of the VAMMIT technology pilot plant rollout. So in the near term, I guess the CapEx is relatively minimal relative to maybe some other peers. The real lever for us in terms of decarbonization is really going to be in terms of energy sources. So if you think about where that -- where we can introduce lower carbon energy sources, Worsley, we've got the coal to gas, which is a relatively low CapEx project over the next forward profile for the next 3 to probably 2026. And then in terms of -- I guess, the biggest lever we've got from an energy perspective is how we think about decarbonizing Eskom in relation to Hillside. That's really the biggest shift from a portfolio perspective that we can make in terms of our Scope 1 and 2 emissions. What we have said is we're not intending to put our balance sheet to work in relation to decarb there but what we are prepared to do is work with the relevant stakeholders, including Eskom and the South African government and also independent power providers to work through how we can expedite decarbonization of the South African grid. And I think post COP26, certainly, the European government, a number of European governments in the EU put forward a proposal to fund USD 8.5 billion into South Africa to support that decarbonization. So the work over the next few years is really engaging with stakeholders to apply that capital in the right places. But certainly, our intention is not to put our balance sheet to work in that space.

And I think Katie's point, is critical, there. Hillside is one that moves a needle of Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions, it's 56% of our emissions profile. We've got obviously a 10-year power contract. We've been very clear to the AEC, the government and Eskom that the next contract needs to be green. There are some short-term things going on I'll talk about in a second. But probably the biggest priority for us is how do they change the grid over time. And it's not just us. So we sell about 30% of the product to Hulamin. Hulamin make auto parts to go into Europe. They've got a large percentage of ownership by the IDC who are sitting back and saying, "Look, 35,000 jobs are at risk if you don't find a way to green the aluminum." So there's lots of pressure building. In the long term, obviously, we're looking to them -- the government to change policy, to open it up, to actually take some of that foreign money to actually decarbonize the network. In the short term, there are opportunities around, if you like, some renewable power suppliers who have actually joined the group recently, and no one's actually using their credits. The other option, obviously, is also the existing nucleus, so trying to work with Eskom, can we get some of that reallocated to Hillside. So these are the things that are working out at the moment, but Hillside's the one that's going to move the needle, but that's the one that's going to require a bit of time but not capital.

[indiscernible] from Macquarie. The first question is given the recent shipping disruptions, are there any changes in terms of thinking on your managing your consumables? And also, are you seeing any impact from the recent lockdowns in China? And second question after this.

Brendan, do you want to take both of those? They're probably in your area.

Yes. Look, I think the first one going to the point around the lockdowns in China, and particularly what we're seeing in Shanghai, I'm sure you've all seen it, the number of ships that have been if you like, locked up in the queues there has just exacerbated some of the tightness. It further creates a disruption around the global supply chain. So from a broader perspective, what have we been doing across the last 12 months? We've spent an enormous amount of time wanting to understand what our critical supplies are, making sure we've got a good understanding of what we have on the ground, making sure we also have a very good understanding of where our alternative suppliers are and, where possible, bringing those into the book to mitigate risk. We've been handling that well. We haven't made any changes in the last 3 to 6 months because, effectively, we put that in place through the last 1 to 2 years through the COVID period. So what I would say is no specific change there. Obviously, the issues with Ukraine and Russia just added another critical variable. So again, the biggest risk here is the unknown unknowns. I think for everyone, once you go 1 or 2 steps into your supply chain, your level of transparency and visibility diminishes. And so, again, it's how do you make sure you've got to the best of your ability good systems in place, a good understanding of what you need on the ground to make sure your operations keep running again those critical items. And if you can move in from a just-in-time model to a just-in-case model. And I think we've done that relatively effectively to date, but again, it's certainly still a risky world. And I would caution people if they think it's getting easier, it's probably -- in the last 6 months, it's gotten harder.

Second question is on the portfolio [indiscernible] understand you like nickel, copper and a few other metals. Do you think you have the right commodity split, which one you want to have more? Just looking at Slide 23, interest is really limited exposure in terms of [indiscernible] growth going forward over the longer term.

Yes. Look, I mean, we always talk about what do we like. We like copper, we like nickel, we like zinc. Zinc, we think the market underestimates what's going to happen with zinc. We're thinking a 1.5-degree world that the actual demand for zinc will actually double. We also believe that, traditionally, the cap on the price has been driven by the ability of China to produce zinc. They account for 36% of if you like, refined metal. But the reality is over the last 4 or 5 years, they have been able to actually pick up production in any way. In fact, their production continues to decline. And I guess we saw that very closely as someone like China when it came to manganese sort of moved to 90% of the material they had to import, and that really changed the market. So we think zinc actually has really favorable, if you like, characteristics. Copper, obviously, the same. But I think the reality is everyone likes nickel, but finding a good sulfide nickel project is probably hard going to -- to be doing. And if you sort of watch the recent numbers coming out of Indonesia, I think Indonesia sort of is quite scary about what they're doing in nickel. Their ability to actually produce mass amounts of pig iron, but also, I think as they sort of move to take that pig iron and try and make it into a class 1 type, I think that's something to sort of watch. So we have a look for nickel, but I think it's going to be very hard to find an entry point in that space. Look, the perfect portfolio, and again, we're not chasing things safe. We'd probably like one more project. We'd like one more operation that doesn't have exposure to zinc or copper, but they're not easy to come by.

It's Matt Greene from Credit Suisse. I just have one question, Katie, perhaps for you. Just your comments earlier on the capital management program and excess cash. Keen to know how you define excess cash in this current environment. I think in the past, about $500 million of cash has been suggested, but clearly that was 2 years ago and the portfolio has changed since.

Yes. Thanks for the question. And certainly, we don't have a gearing target or a net debt target, but we do manage our balance sheet to ensure we maintain that investment grade credit rating through the cycle. So the way we think about that is we run a low -- a sustained low scenario for a 3-year period, and we consider the portfolio composition and our forward capital profile as we run that profile. And then we work back to what, therefore, is the right balance sheet we need today to ensure that we can continue to execute our forward capital profile in that sustained low. And then that essentially determines what excess cash we have available. If you think about -- I mean, it's probably worth noting, as at the end of April, while we did have a $6 million net debt position, as you add in our capital management program that we haven't yet executed $360 million or thereabouts remaining and the completion of Mozal before consideration of any final ordinary dividend, which I think the 40% dividend return this half will be certainly benefiting from the tailwinds of price, our pro forma net debt position still remains in excess of $400 million. So I think we'll do what we always do. We'll get to -- sorry, $400 million net debt. What we'll do is we'll get to the full year, and we'll reassess that excess cash position. Certainly, the key for us is to have opportunities to compete for that excess cash. But should we not have appropriate internal opportunities, we will look to return any excess back to our shareholders.

[indiscernible] from Morgan Stanley. I just had a quick question. I mean I think we talked before a bit about the sustaining CapEx has increased across assets. I was wondering if you're seeing sort of a similar increase across the cost base. And is there anything in particular you'd highlight that you are looking at to manage the cost inflation side of things across the assets. And then secondly, I was wondering if I could just get a little bit more detail around this Worsley contract where it increases efficiency and decarbonizes the asset.

We'll probably break that into parts. If you start, I guess, at the macro level, when we did our half year results, we talked about, I think it was a 3% increase in controllable costs. So the team, I think, have done a good job managing that to date. There is no doubt in the uncontrollable space, some of the market traded commodities that go, for example, into the refineries and the smelters like caustic, pitch and coke. We're seeing quite significant increases. Some of those things like caustic soda actually aren't bad because that's used to combat reactive silica. Now Worsley use relatively low levels compared to some of the other refineries around the world, and that steepens the cost curve. And the other thing that goes in those uncontrollable for us is royalties, for example, in the Illawarra, where we've seen higher prices. So not all cost increases are bad. I'll get Brendan and Katie maybe to talk about -- Brendan particularly because he runs the supply side as well as what we're seeing. But I would say from a macro perspective, one of the advantages we have going into this year is obviously volume increases not only at Sierra Gorda, but also we're increasing at Mozal not only with the additional stake that we've bought, but also the rollout of AP3XLE. Obviously, we continue to increase our production of the alumina refinery in Brazil and have got the smelter coming online. But even places like Cerro Matoso and Cannington, where we're actually pushing up our production tonnage that always helps with the unit costs. If you think about labor, I'd still say labor at a high level is -- it's a challenge in Western Australia, in particular. So poaching of technical roles is quite common. And some of the money, that particularly the FFI are offering people is materially larger than what we offer people. We're probably seeing though that more at the junior level, to be honest. The middle more semi people don't want to go work there, and they don't want to go work at [indiscernible] , they don't want to go to work at BHP. So we're not seeing huge turnovers in those roles. It's more our graduates or people 4, 5 years into their career where they can double their money in one step. That sort of leaves a lot of people. Across labor agreements, we're probably starting to see a bit of pressure, if you like, for places like Illawarra with union agreements coming up. And they're probably pushing for about a 5% increase. So it's starting to get similar kind of noise out of Worsley and, obviously, at Hillside as we go through union arrangements. So maybe, Brendan, you can talk a bit more about what we're seeing in consumables. And then maybe, Katie, you think about how we quantify that into how you look at our unit costs going forward.

Yes. I thought Graham, the cost inflation came up, we were going to suggest that we had difficulties with the connection across the Nullarbor, but I'll get into that now. So look, the reality is if we look at diesel, just as a starting point, diesel prices today are 40% higher than they were across the last 12-month average. Singapore sort of diesel marketplace price today is around $138 a barrel. If we look at gas, we have a series of rolling contracts at a place like Cannington. We've historically contracted across a sort of a 2-year basis. The rates in the recent period around January that we established for around 50% of gas demand, were not quite, but almost double what we had previously. And as we're looking now to put in place contracts for the next leg, if you like, that remaining 50%, the market has almost doubled again. And so we're seeing very strong pressure there, and obviously, it's a very competitive environment. We're working through that. We're looking at things such as how we reduce tenure because, obviously, if markets are inflated, you certainly don't want to lock in for the same level of duration. As Graham said, for labor, we're doing a lot of work in that area. I think CPI to CPI plus in places like Brazil and Colombia, it's effectively a mandated rise, and you can see that on various global government websites between 7% and -- circa 7% and 10%. As Graham said, I think in Australia and, more broadly, U.S., U.K. and into Africa, it's going to be in the 5%, maybe Mozal 8%. So in that sort of range of 5% to 8%. If we look at caustic soda, net prices today are trading at around $745 a tonne in the Northeast Asian market. That compares to a last 12-month average of around $550 a tonne. That gives you a sense that there's a lot of pressure there. But as Graham said, these domestic Chinese refiners using domestic bauxite are typically consuming around 150 to 200 kilograms per tonne of alumina versus around 90 to 100 in Australia and Brazil. So if anything, that steepens the cost curve, but it certainly comes through in pressure for us. And then if we go to the black stuff that goes into the smelters, pet coke is up around 30% versus the last 6 months, pitch around 20%. So again, there's considerable pressure there. And then if we just look at general services that we contract, not so much pressure. In Australia, at the minute, we're seeing sort of 2% to 5% rises, South Africa around 4% to 5%. Colombia's again sort of single digits, low single digits. So again, we just continue to make sure we have a very competitive process for any tender that we run across the group at a figure that's more than USD 250,000. We have it mandated that it has to run a competitive tender process and bring in, obviously, the parties that we think will meet our needs, if anything, to try and create some degree of attention in the process. But it's certainly not beneficial on our side of the equation at the moment. It's very much on the supply side, I guess, the same reason we're benefiting on the price side as well. Katie, maybe to you?

Maybe just before we go to Katie, Brendan, I think it is worth noting, though, like compared to our peers, we don't move as many tonnes. So we don't have the same exposure to diesel. And particularly, when you look in South Africa or even other places, we tend to have long-term power contracts. We're not susceptible to Megaflex like a number of people are in South Africa. We're subject to inflationary increases like PPI, but we certainly don't have the Megaflex rate, which is more than doubled or tripled in some locations. Katie [indiscernible].

I was just going to say, Graham, it's a really good point because to feed on that, if you look at Caterpillar, the sorts of things we're hearing is request for increases of well over double digits for parts. For the likes of Michelin with tires, well over double digits, potentially plus 20%. So again, not big components for us, but for some others, it will be interesting to see how that plays through. Sorry, Katie.

Look, I think you both covered that pretty well. There's probably not much more to add in terms of content. Probably the only other comment I'd make is, look, we don't see cost inflation materially out of line with our peers. And we did reflect that in our updated cost guidance at the March quarterly. To Brendan's point, what we have seen is probably some spot prices for raw material inputs, in particular, sitting above maybe the levels that informed our cost guidance. So we might see a bit more upward pressure in costs coming through at the back end of the year. We will publish or provide FY '23 guidance at the full year. And some of those other impacts around labor and some of the consumables spend increases will be reflected as appropriate as we understand them better as we go forward.

The challenge to the team is to be relatively better than our peers, yes.

Probably the only other thing, and I think just really to highlight, though, the biggest lever that we've got here is safe and stable production. And what we have done, to Graham's point, is invest heavily in high-returning growth opportunities across the portfolio. And we really see that come through in our FY '23 production guidance. And that's the biggest mitigant, I guess, we've got in terms of managing some of these controllable cost increases.

This is Tim from [indiscernible] . Just got a quick question on probably midterm outlook for alumina markets. Obviously, there's a bit of dislocation moment. China usually didn't export alumina -- be sending alumina to Russia. There's more ex-Russian volumes come available in the ex-China markets. And the price has obviously come down quite significantly over the probably last 3, 4 months. What's your view Brendan and the team for alumina markets over the next couple of years?

Brendan has been waiting for that one, Brendan, over to you.

Yes. Look, it's a really good question. Thank you. I did meet with a group of investors, it must have been 6 or 8 weeks ago when obviously, everyone was very much focused on Russia, Ukraine and alumina prices rallied quite high. To me, I said at the time that it felt a lot like met coal when the Chinese put the importation down on Australia ores in place, it basically meant that global trade flows had to be redistributed. And I think the same thing is happening, as you sort of pointed to, with alumina with regards to Russia meeting its own requirements, probably looking for product from Asia and Southeast Asia and then traditional suppliers up into those markets actually having to divert product up into Europe. As you're aware, Rusal has its refinery in Ukraine, which is just under 2 million tonnes, and it also has the refinery in Ireland, which is of a similar size. So again, that is obviously, as I said, weighing on the distribution of materials, whether it be the raw materials of bauxite or whether it be alumina trade flows themselves. For us, when we look at it, obviously, we still think from a cost perspective, the pricing around where we are today is very much akin to what we would call equilibrium pricing. That mid-3s to high 3s is -- that $300 a tonne level is, again, for us where the industry is going to need to see a price to sustain itself and for obviously the incentivization of new capacity that's going to need to be built outside of China over the next 5 to 10 years. So yes, you're right, very, very volatile situation, very difficult tracking trade flows at the moment, deep impacts on materials that swap from one basin to another remembering that effectively, there's always a rebalancing from producer to producer in the Atlantic versus the Pacific. I think that's largely played out, and markets have sort of gone back to being, if you like, akin to a normalized level at the minute, reflective of the supply-demand dynamics.

Yes. Look, just conscious of the time. You've all got a busy day probably ahead of you. Just maybe a couple of really brief closing comments. 7 years ago, we probably had the term Spinco, Graco that was floated around a lot about South32. And you obviously had a management team who hadn't really run anything before. Look, I think the team has done a great job over the last 7 years. We started with a set of assets that people didn't love or understand. I think there's been a big change in that space. They performed well over the time. And then we have actually built up a suite of internal growth options, the brownfield options and extensions but also now bringing in greenfield opportunities. And I think if you look forward compared to many of our peers, we actually have quite an attractive growth profile in many of the quantities that I think are going to have great favorable characteristics in terms of the markets. So I think that positions us very differently than where we were 7 years ago, but there's still plenty of challenges ahead, but I think we're well positioned to sort of handle those challenges. I just want to thank everyone today for their time and their continued support, and really great to be back on the road to actually see people. Thanks, everyone. Thanks, Katie. Thanks, Brendan.

Thank you. Thanks, everyone.