Standard Bank Group Limited (SBK) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Okay. Good afternoon, everybody, and thank you very much for joining the Standard Bank Group Pre-Close Call this afternoon. My name is Sarah Rivett-Carnac, and I'll be managing the call today. As you will be aware, we issued a SENS announcement this morning and providing a brief update with regards to our 10-month performance and then also with regards to the reconfirmation of our guidance for 2023. On the call today, we have Arno Daehnke, the Group Financial Director; Brooks Mparutsa; Barbara Bell; Thembelihle Ngema and Willa van den Berg, business unit CFOs. I will now hand over to Arno. Thank you, Arno.

Thank you, Sarah, and hello, everyone. Thank you for your interest in the Standard Bank Group, and it's great to have you all on the call. I will start with some brief comments on the macroeconomic environment. I will then turn to the trends we are seeing in our business and our guidance for 2023. Clearly, as you understand the global economic and geopolitical environment remains difficult and global growth has slowed, while inflation -- global inflation is showing signs of moderating, we understand interest rates remain high. Let's first turn to Africa and our portfolio of countries, where we have seen mixed movements in terms of currencies, inflation and policy rates across our 20 countries of operation on the continent. In terms of currencies, as many of you are aware, we saw a large devaluation of the Angolan Kwanza in May and June and a reset of the official rate of the Nigerian Naira in June as well. Since July, these 2 currencies have stabilized, but we've seen pressure in the Malawian Kwacha and the Zambian Kwacha as well. So turning to the inflation trends and policy rate actions across our 12 bigger markets outside of South Africa, the trends have been mixed since June this year. In 3 of our countries, mainly Ghana, Malawi and Nigeria. Inflation has remained high at above 20%, and policy rates have increased marginally from already high levels. In 2 of our countries, namely Angola and Zambia, inflation has increased and is now in the teens. In response, policy rates have increased by 100 and 150 basis points, respectively. In Namibia, underlying inflation is moderated and interest rates have been flat. And in another 6 countries: Botswana, Kenya, Mauritius, Mozambique, Tanzania and Uganda, inflation was really below, 8% in June and has trended down since then. In Botswana, Tanzania, Uganda, inflation is actually around 3%. Across these 6 countries, policy rates have remained steady in all but Uganda. Uganda cut its policy rate by 50 basis points in August and has been steady since then. In South Africa, interest rates have been flat since May and inflation has moderated and is now inside the South African Reserve Bank's target range of 3% to 6%. In summary then across our portfolio, average inflation has moderated, but remains high and policy rates are marginally higher in October relative to June. Let's now turn to our performance and trends for the 10 months to the end of October 2023. The group's results for the period ended 31st October 2023 were robust, underpinned by a healthy and growing franchises. Africa Regions continued to perform very well and delivered strong earnings growth period-on-period in both reported and in constant currency. Africa Regions' contribution to group headline earnings for the 10 months was 44%, and this was consistent with the first 6 months of the year. Moving to the income statement and starting with revenue. Banking revenue growth has slowed but remained above 20% period-on-period, driven by a continued strong net interest income and noninterest revenue growth. While higher average interest rates period-on-period continue to support net interest margin, net interest margin expansion has slowed in recent months, given that the interest rate increases seen in the second half of 2022 are now embedded in the base. The loan growth from 31st of October 2022 to 31st October 2023 was slower, and that's from June 2022 to June 2023. This was due to the increase in loans in the second half of 2022 and a general slowdown in 2023. However, on an average balance basis, the growth in the second half of 2022 continued to support average loan balances, and this supported net interest income growth period-on-period. In Personal and Private Banking and Business and Commercial Banking, disbursements to retail and business clients slowed on the back of lower client demand linked to confidence, reduced affordability on the back of higher interest rates and competitive pricing pressure, particularly in mortgages in South Africa. It is worth noting that in South Africa, our risk criteria and risk appetites have not changed. We remain focused on lending to our existing clients who we know well. In Corporate and Investment Banking, origination remains strong, driven by energy-related opportunities. Noninterest revenue growth was low to mid-teens period-on-period supported by our ongoing client acquisition, higher transaction volumes, annual price increases and volatility, which continue to support trading revenues. Trading revenue growth has slowed in the 4 months to October relative to the 36% growth reported in June 2023. Moving to costs. Cost growth remained elevated but was slower than the 16% reported in the 6 months to June 2023. The group continued to record strong positive draws. Turning to credit. Growth in credit impairment charges also slowed but remained elevated due to a combination of balance sheet growth, client strain linked to the rapid increase in rates, sovereign risk migrations in Africa Regions and provisions linked to specific corporates in South Africa. The group's credit loss ratio for the 10 months to October 2023 remained below the top of the group's through the cycle target range. Relative to the levels reported as of 30th of June 2023, balance sheet provisions remain high and coverage remains strong. Both are deemed appropriate at this stage of the cycle. We will review our IFRS 9-related macroeconomic assumptions as part of our year-end reporting process. All other trends were as reported in the group's announcement dated to 17th of October 2023. Now turning to our guidance for the 12 months to 31st of December 2023. As stated in the announcement this morning, we are happy to confirm that the group's guidance for 12-month period to 31st of December 2023 remains intact. Banking revenue growth year-on-year is expected to be robust, underpinned by strong momentum across the franchise. Banking cost growth is expected to remain elevated, but the group expects to deliver strong positive jaws. Growth in credit impairments is expected to moderate in the 6 months to 31st of December 2023. And the group's credit loss ratio for the full year is expected to remain within the group's through-the-cycle target range, but above the midpoint of 85 basis points. And lastly, but importantly, we expect our return on equity to remain well anchored in our 2025 target range of 17% to 20%. Thank you, Sarah. I will hand back to you for questions.

Thank you, Arno. We'll now move to questions. [Operator Instructions] James Starke, please go ahead. [indiscernible], can we move to Kevin Harding, I think he's next.

Just on credit impairments, you're reasoning underpinning the elevated impairments remains largely the same as you disclosed in the first half 2023 results. Maybe if you could just comment on the development of the following factors since June this year. Sovereign credit risk migrations. Is this accelerated, decelerated or it's stable? Collections and recoveries in South Africa and Africa Regions across your various business lines? And then perhaps if you can give any information on provisions linked to specific corporates in South Africa, perhaps a particular sector? And then lastly, could you comment on specific impairments raised on corporate clients in Africa Regions? Was that only in the first half? Or do you see additional impairments raised in the second half?

Thanks, Kevin. On sovereign credit risk, there are some elevated sovereign credit risk exposures we do have, and they're not material in context of the group, and they haven't materially impacted our forecast and our earnings projections. But clearly, some of the countries that we've spoken about those earlier on, for example, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, possibly Angola as well, do run a heightened indebtedness levels, and we're very cautiously approaching those countries. That's largely not that different to what we had communicated to you in June this year, so to answer your question specifically. And collections recoveries in the retail business are certainly doing well and that we are tracking back within our credit-loss ratio for the retail business. I'll remind you, our target range is 100, 150 basis points. So we're tracking back within that, like we indicated to you in June, so that's pleasing. Slightly higher pressure in the business and commercial business, particularly in Africa Regions. Some long-standing NPLs, which we are working out and taking provisions on those. So BCB is actually slightly outside of the credit-loss ratio range. And in CIB, continues to track quite favorably, in fact, below the -- through the cycle range of 40 to 60 basis points. So that's a pleasing performance there. On specific sectors, obviously, we don't disclose anything name by name. But Brooks, do you want to comment on any specific sectors you'd like to highlight in CIB?

Thanks, Arno. And good afternoon, Kevin. I think we have some real estate exposures, particularly in West Africa. We've had to take additional provisions in those sectors. And then some of the legacy assets in our power and infrastructure exposure in East Africa with -- they're not new exposures, but as the matters conclude, we've had to raise additional provisions. But certainly not anything in excess of what we thought at half year, which is why Arno mentioned that we will be actually slightly below our -- the bottom of our -- through the cycle range of 40 to 60 basis points.

The next question is from Harry Botha.

I just wanted to get a sense of the lending growth that you're seeing. Is it's similar between Africa Regions and South Africa between CIB and retail? And then also regarding the net interest margin, could you maybe just unpack some of the moving parts there, the interest rate sensitivity as well as any other key considerations for the second half of the year?

Yes. So lending growth, as I mentioned, has slowed down in South Africa. We unpacked that the first dispersions have come off quite significantly, as we had already commented in June, actually, Harry. So those trends continue. Obviously, the information is publicly available on the BA900 data. Africa Regions continues to grow faster, but the rand is relatively stronger. So there is a translation impact as well, you need to bear in mind. Translated into ZAR, the lending does not look as strong in Africa Regions. On a constant currency basis, it's quite good. On NIM, we sort of are topping out in terms of our NIM. We see continued slight widening, but topping out. The interest rate sensitivity has reduced in South Africa, and we spoke about our [indiscernible]. Of the hedging program, we roughly -- we indicated previously, we're probably going to hedge around 2/3 of the exposure. We're roughly halfway through the 2/3 hedging program. So we're roughly 33% done of the entire exposure. And then of course, we do have heightened interest rate exposure in our offshore operations. So when the USD and GBP rates come down, we will be exposed there and in Africa Regions as well. And those sensitivities are still largely as we have discussed them as of June with South Africa continue to come down in terms of interest rate sensitivity.

Thank you. Can we move to Keamo? Next, please.

Following up on Harry's question on loan...

Keamo, sorry, can you speak up? Your mic is very soft.

Yes, can you hear me now? Is it better?

Much better. Thank you.

Great. Thanks, Arno. So following up on Harry's question on loan growth. How is growth in just Africa regions trended relative to your expectations in June? Can you maybe unpack in which regions across the continent you have been seeing growth? And also, can you also touch on loan growth in the offshore business? And on costs, which cost categories actually supported slowing growth from the half year. Where do you actually see scope for further cost optimization going into the end of the year?

Yes. There is no specific region standing out, Keamo, in terms of Africa Regions loan growth. As I indicated, overall the portfolio is growing within our expectations and -- but there's nothing specific to highlight in the specific country or so. Cost optimization, I indicated just now it has come down, but continues to be elevated. And of course, we continue to focus on where we can extract cost savings and prudently deploying our resources. And that includes thinking about technology costs, our premises costs as we have discussed in the past. Carefully thinking about staff-related costs, which is a bigger staff item, the increases are now coming through in March next year, planning for those already. And then, of course, variable incentives are up and that they're setting a higher base for 2 reasons. First of all, the company is doing very well. And obviously, we have to compensate our teams through the variable expense line in that manner. But also, we have come off a low base in terms of LTIPs and other variable schemes and they have now vested and obviously need to be accrued for in our income statement. So cost growth continues to focus and to present levers to reduce costs, we've just been through our planning cycle for next year, and we can see continued reduction in costs going into next year -- cost growth reduction that is.

Can we move to Ross Krige, the next question.

Thanks for the call. Just one for me on NIR. It looks like the run rate to October is well ahead of your FY '23 guidance. So I was hoping you could just unpack that in terms of what is surprising to the upside. And then maybe just within that comment on trading and how that's tracking versus your prior guidance?

Yes. Thanks, Ross. Indeed, it is higher than we've guided. I think initially, we guided low single -- high single digit. And I mentioned now sort of low to mid-single digit -- mid-teens. So 2 components there. Our fee and commission generation in South Africa, certainly in the retail business is tracking well. We already commented on that at the June results and that continues to perform very well actually through client acquisition, through client activity, cross-sell. And then we're very pleased with some of the NIR generation in the retail business in South Africa. Trading has also performed well. As you know, throughout the year. We've kept on guiding that, that should come off quite substantially. But it's still producing very good results, but at a lower pace, at a lower growth rate than we had in the first half of the year. And so trading continues to be robust, but not as strong as in the first half, and those factors combined actually has resulted in better-than-expected NIR.

Thanks. If we could move to the next question from Stephan Potgieter.

Can you hear me?

Yes, we can hear you Stephan.

You've sort of answered my question in terms of the NIR progression, but just to maybe focus a bit on the trading income line. You mentioned it continues to moderate, but it's still growing. I think in the first half booklet in the prospect statement, you mentioned that it could decline by lower teens. So I think that's what I saw there. And then in the third quarter update, I think you said is growing in the mid-teens or low teens, I don't remember. But so quite a big shift from declining to growing. I think you qualified that if volatility would subside, than it would decline, but it looks like it's growing. So just do you get a sense to what extent is it normalizing and it seems to be holding up much better than expected?

Indeed, Brooks, do you want to give some color on that?

Yes. So Stephan, it is normalizing. I think we certainly saw a much better third quarter than what we had anticipated. I think we saw some of the volatility underpinning the client trades that we had as we articulated often the trading income. Although it's articulated as trading, it's off the back of client engagement. So we've continued to see very good sort of mid-20s client engagements -- planned revenue growth in our Global Markets business, and we had anticipated to see that in a lot more of the market. We've also continued to see some muted growth in South Africa but particularly in East and West Africa. I think our forecast at the half year was we're expecting, particularly in West Africa significant slowdown, but we've only started to see that slow down more towards the third quarter of -- the fourth quarter of this year. So we've seen much stronger in East and West Africa, with continued growth in South Africa, but really a good, strong client franchise, which is in the mid-20s. And we had anticipated that, that wouldn't grow as strongly in the second half, but it has continued to grow strongly in the second half of the year. I hope that helps Stephan?

I think if we can move to Charles Russell for the next question please.

Just a quick one from my side [indiscernible] point of clarification, the cost-to-income ratio for the full year, is that guided to be higher than at the interim? And then second question [indiscernible] have been better performers in 2023 so far? And what might be those key drivers for those?

Charles, I'm sorry, we heard about the cost-to-income ratio. I can answer that question. Then you had just broken up briefly. What was the second question, if you can just repeat it?

Sorry about that one. Can you hear me now?

Yes. Now, it's clear. Apologies.

Okay. Just which countries are the better performers within the African portfolio in 2023 so far? And what are the key drivers there?

Yes. Okay. So the cost-to-income ratio to answer that first. At half year, we recorded 50.5% cost-to-income ratio. For the full year, it might be fractionally or slightly higher than that. And then on the countries performing particularly well. Obviously, you don't want to go into too much detail there, but it is across the network really. We had disclosed at half year that many of the countries are doing very well. And we're actually seeing strong growth across South and Central Africa. I'm looking at [ last year ] 10 months, and this year East Africa as well as particularly West Africa. So we're seeing strong performance across all of the regions with an emphasis, I would say, on West Africa.

Can we move to the next question, Kevin Harding.

Perhaps if you could comment around how we should think about hyperinflationary accounting in Ghana impacting your 2023 results? Or is this a 2024 issue?

Yes. It's a topical question at the moment, Kevin. So currently, the only entity we have in our network, which we account for on hyperinflationary regime is Zimbabwe. We think it's likely that we'll also have to include Ghana as a hyperinflationary accounting adjustment. Obviously, we're currently working with external audits on the final assessment thereof. But it is quite likely that when we report to you in March for the 2023 financial year, Ghana will be included as hyperinflation.

Thanks. I'm wondering if we can go back to James Starke, if possible. James, is still on the line. James, perhaps you can raise your hand again.

Whilst James comes online again. Just jumping if you can get online, James. There are 2 questions in the comments. So bear with us. So Chris, you were asking about comments on ICBCS and insurance and asset management. So ICBCS continues to operate well operationally and continues to deliver positively towards the group. So we're pleased with the performance coming from ICBCS. On insurance, and there's another question also on Liberty performance in terms of new business volumes, risk experience -- experience and persistency. Maybe Willa you want to comment on IAM overall and then specifically on new business volumes, risk experience and persistency limiting.

Thank you, Arno. Good afternoon, everyone. I think the second half has seen similar trends to the first half. In terms of risk experience, the experience continues to normalize. Just keep in mind that H1 had better than normalized experience. So that's come back to be normalized overall. Persistency, we continue to see a tale of 2 sides. So one is on complex risk, persistency continues to improve. Whereas on the investment book, persistency continues to be under pressure given the economic circumstances. The sales volume momentum has continued into H2, particularly on the guaranteed type products on the investment side. One extra thing to call out for insurance and asset management is the rise in interest rates since half year, will have a material impact on the shareholder portfolio returns. There is a ZAR 10 billion long bond position there that is maintained for the capital stability, which will be impacted by the rise in the rates in H2, but will allow us to keep the capital coverage stable, which is important for the dividends.

Thanks, Willa. Sorry, James, third time lucky. Can we go back to James Starke. James, can you hear us? Okay. I can't see any other hands on the line. So I think we'll draw the call to a close. James, I'll take your -- any questions off-line. Arno would you like to make any closing comments?

Yes. So first of all, thanks very much, everyone, for dialing in and listening to our update. As a reminder, we will report Group's full year results for 2023 on the 14th of March and we'll provide guidance of 2024 at that time and thank you for joining us today. For those of you who take some time off, enjoy your festive season. But otherwise, we're very much looking forward to seeing you in March next year and giving you the full color of our 2023 financials.