Star Cement Limited (540575) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Q3 FY '24 Earnings Conference Call of Star Cements Limited, hosted by Emkay Global Financial Services Limited. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Dharmesh Shah from Emkay Global Financial Services Limited. Thank you, and over to you, Mr. Dharmesh sir.

Thanks, Manav. On the call, we have with us Mr. Tushar Bhajanka, Deputy Managing Director; Mr. Vinit Tiwari, CEO; and Mr. Manoj Agarwal, CFO of the company. I will now hand over the floor to the management for their opening remarks, which will be followed by an interactive Q&A. Thank you, and over to you, Tushar.

So good afternoon, all. My name is Tushar Bhajanka, and I'm the Deputy MD of Star Cement. I would like to welcome you all to the earnings call of quarter 3. I have the CEO and CFO of the company with me. The CFO will give out the numbers of quarter 3, and then we can have a Q&A session. Thank you.

Yes. Hi friends. This is Manoj Agarwal, CFO of the company. I, on behalf of Star Cement Limited, welcome you all to our con call for discussing our number of Q3 FY '24 and followed by 9-month number for the period ended December '23. I would like to clarify that we are discussing the historical numbers, and there is no invitation to invest. Having said that now, I will just take you through the Q3 number followed by 9-month number. Starting from clinker production, during the quarter ended December '23, we have produced 7.37 lakhs tonne of clinker as against 7.39 lakhs tonne same quarter last year. So far as cement production is concerned, we have produced 9.82 lakhs tonne this quarter as against 9.22 lakhs tonne same quarter last year. Now I will take you through sales volume. During the quarter, we had sold 9.6 lakhs tonne of cement and 0.03 lakhs tonne of clinker as against 9.08 lakhs tonne of cement same quarter last year. There was no clinker sale last year. There is a growth of 7% in cement sales, that is as far as cement and clinker sale is concerned. As far as geographical distribution of cement is concerned, in Northeast, we have sold around 7.32 lakhs tonne as against 6.62 lakhs tonne during same quarter last year. And as far as outside Northeast cement is concerned, we have sold 2.38 lakhs tonne of cement as against 2.45 lakhs tonne same quarter last year. In terms of blend mix, it is 10% of OPC and rest is PPC. These are the quantitative numbers of the quarter. Now I will take you through the financials. The total revenue figure this quarter is around INR 655 crores as against INR 629 crores same period last year. As far as EBITDA figure is concerned, this quarter, we have done an EBITDA of INR 153 crores as against INR 120 crores last year. Profit after tax is INR 74 crores as against INR 53 crores in the same period last year. On per tonne EBITDA basis, it is INR 1,576 during the quarter as against INR 1,324 per tonne same quarter last year. This is about our quarterly numbers of third quarter. The total revenue figure of the 9-month ended December '23 is around INR 1,975 crores as against INR 1,769 crores same period last year. As far as EBITDA figure is concerned, during 9-month ended December '23, we had done an EBITDA of around INR 395 crores as against INR 342 crores last year. PAT is INR 207 crores as against INR 151 crores in the same period last year. On per tonne EBITDA front, it is INR 1,304 during the 9-month ended December '23 as against INR 1,229 per tonne same period last year. These are our quarterly and 9-month ended figure. Now I would request all of you that if you have any query, then I will request Dharmesh to moderate the query wherever is required. Thank you.

[Operator Instructions] We have our first question from the line of Shravan Shah from Dolat Capital.

Congratulations on good set of numbers, particularly on the profitability front. Sir, before asking questions on volume and the pricing and profitability, first, I wanted to understand in terms of the -- our expansion and the CapEx. So our 3 MTPA clinker at Meghalaya were supposed to start in February and 2 MTPA Guwahati were supposed to start in December and Silchar [Foreign Language] obviously, in September. So what's the new time line when these 3 units are going to start?

Yes. So the Guwahati grinding unit, we've already started taking some initial trials and we should be commissioning the plant on the 1st of March next month. For the clinker plant, we will be commissioning the clinker plant on the 31st of March next month. And for the grinding unit in Silchar, that would be about August to September next year, next calendar year.

Okay. And any specific reason why there is a delay for this clinker and particularly the Guwahati grinding unit?

Yes. So I think just it took us more time in the trial and some of the critical delivery of a few of the machinery, and that is why we got delayed by a month. But I think we have already started taking the trial, and I think we are all set to commission the plant by 1st of March. I don't think there is any difficulty on that.

Okay. Secondly, in terms of the CapEx for all these 3 specifically. So clinker, we were supposed to do a CapEx of INR 1,300-odd crores, for Silchar INR 500 crores and for Guwahati INR 450-odd crores. So out of this, how much CapEx we have already done? And what is remaining to be done in the fourth quarter? And what about the next year FY '25 CapEx?

Okay. So in Guwahati, we've already -- till December, we had spent about INR 330 crores in erecting the plant. There is a CapEx of about INR 55 crores more that we will be doing in quarter 4. This is for the Guwahati plant. Our expected cost, the CapEx that we thought for the Guwahati plant is now coming to be lower than what we had estimated earlier. So we had estimated I think about INR 430 crores, [Technical Difficulty] INR 400 crores. So I was saying that the CapEx that we had thought for Guwahati was about INR 430 crores. We have -- we are going to finish the project and below that amount. The CapEx should be about INR 385 crores, INR 330 crores is already spent till December and INR 55 crores would be spent in quarter 4 for this year. This is Guwahati. And Lumshnong, the CapEx was about INR 1,300 crores. We had -- till December, we had already spent INR 850 crores. In quarter 4, we plan to spend about INR 200 crores. And in quarter 1 of next financial year, we'll be spending about INR 200 crores more. So in total, we plan to complete the Lumshnong clinker project in INR 1,250 crores versus the INR 1,300 crores, that was expected.

Okay. And for Silchar, so the cost was INR 500-odd crores. So how much we have spent? And is it also revised down?

So Silchar, we have just focused on buying the land till now. So we have spent about INR 20 crores in total in just buying the land, and we are taking out the permission. I think because cost of steel and two, three other items have reduced, so we would revise the CapEx downwards from INR 520 crores to, I think, about INR 450 crores, but I would need to confirm that with the team. So that would be confirmed in the next investor call.

Okay. Okay. Got it. Now on the volume front. So we were looking at 13% to 14% kind of volume growth for this year than 9%. So the ask rate for the fourth quarter is close to 22-odd percent. So what's the revised number for the volume for this year? And once this Guwahati or clinker will start up, so next year, how one can look at in terms of the volume growth?

Okay. So it's Vinit Tiwari this side. So as far as growth is concerned, what we anticipated the growth in quarter 4 was not in line. I think the industry growth was quite subdued. And we can relate it to because the quarter 1 which -- normally monsoon, which has seen early in Northeast didn't set early. So first quarter was almost 25% industry growth. Quarter 2 industry growth was almost flat. And in quarter 3, Northeast industry growth was pretty subdued to around 3% level. Vis-à-vis that, we've been able to -- in Northeast per se, we will talk about, we've been able to grow by close to 10%, and as an organization 7% because of the outside Northeast factor. Going forward, if we are looking at definitely the growth somewhere we are expecting in quarter 4 to be in line with somewhere around 5%, 7%, maybe for the industry, and we expect to again close to around 8% to 10% in quarter 4. As far as next financial year is concerned, since we are coming up with a 2 million tonne Guwahati, which is all trial production, as informed by the Deputy MD, that trial production already started. And for all purpose, that plant will start giving us material from 1st of March. So next year, we have this 2 million-tonne extra. I think we were quite strained for material during the year. If we talk about logically, we will sell every tonne of cement has been -- every tonne of clinker will get converted to cement, whatever we have produced this year, and we will be able to sell that before 31st March. So next year, we have additional volume. So we look forward to a pretty aggressive growth. And as far as Star is concerned, we will definitely look forward for a pretty aggressive growth, and we are very sure of doing a growth somewhere in the range of 18%, 20% next year.

Okay. That's great. Second, just a couple of data points, premium share for this quarter, lead distance? And how about the profit prices in January and till February?

Okay. So if you talk about pricing, so in case of Northeast, there has been an improvement in the pricing, although outside Northeast, there is a drop in the pricing. So in Northeast in quarter 3, we'll talk about per se, and the pricing has improved by close to INR 7. But outside Northeast, like in Bengal and Bihar, there is a drop in prices, almost by INR 15, INR 20 drop in Bihar, and similarly, around INR 20 drop in Bengal. So this is what we have seen vis-à-vis quarter 2. As far as the premium percentage is concerned. So we have -- our premium percentage has improved to 6.5% vis-à-vis 4.5% of the same quarter last year. And the growth in premium in quarter 3 has been 47%. So that has been a focus area and the growth has been reasonably well, yes. Lead distance has been 215.

Okay. And trade share was how much for this quarter?

Come again?

Trade share for this quarter was how much? And our kcal fuel costs?

Okay, 87%.

And kcal for this quarter, fuel cost?

Fuel cost for this quarter has been INR 1.75.

And for next quarter, do we expect some further possibility of reduction?

We expect to be around INR 1.7.

Okay. And fuel mix for this quarter, third quarter, how much was contracted coal Nagaland, biomass and FSA?

FSA was around 12%. Biomass was around 7%. Nagaland was 26% and spot auction coal was around 55%. If I talk about -- around 13%.

Okay. Okay. And lastly, for net debt, if you can give the number, net cash as on December?

Yes. So currently, we are about INR 116 crores in positive, so we do not have any debt. But what we see is that in quarter 4, we would have to take a debt of about INR 150 crores. And in quarter 1, we'll have to take a debt of about another INR 100 crores. In total, by end of quarter 1, we'll have a debt of about INR 250 crores, which would need to be paid in the coming quarters after that.

[Operator Instructions] We have our next question from the line of Mangesh Bhadang from Centrum Broking.

Congrats on good set of numbers. Sir, my question is on the market size of Northeast. So we are adding 2 million tonnes now and another 2 million tonnes grinding unit later, in -- say, in 2025. So how fast can we ramp this up? Do we have to aggressively take market share from incumbent players to get that kind of volumes? Or do you think that the -- basically, that if the region grows at, say, 7% to 8% or even 9%, we would still be able to ramp up the plant faster?

Okay. So if you look at Northeast, there are players who are coming from outside who sell close to around 1.8 million to 2 million tonnes of cement comes from outside while rig players who dump cement in Northeast primarily. Then there is a natural market growth. And from the Star perspective, if you look at, we are very high on trade. So non-trade has been one segment which we have left. Further non-trade, there are big projects which are coming up in Northeast which you all must be aware about are getting announced, some hydropower projects are coming up, some big, big bridge projects are coming up. So we expect that the institutional demand, which was also good in the recent past also. It should remain good and bad. And that is a segment which is slightly untouched for us. We will be getting [ presently ] into that segment. Secondly, if we look into going forward as far as the volumes are concerned, we have these outside players whom we have not competed with. Reason for that has been the volumes which we had, we were selling that volumes. So we have opportunity to compete with them and to take that share as well. And lastly, surely, we have to take our market share from the existing players also because that's where our volume will come from.

Okay. And sir, the related question to that is basically, we have seen that the demand in the Eastern region, specifically in Bihar, West Bengal, Jharkhand has been very low and that has resulted in since October, we're seeing pricing slide in those regions. So has that influx increased compared to earlier that from east to Northeast?

No, I will not say it has increased. Rather if we talk about the recent past, it has decreased because rake availability also gets challenged in this period of time. So the 2-point rakes availability has been challenged. So the -- I think the influx, if we talk about the recent past, it has been lower. Yes, it increased over the year, if you talk about. There is an increase over last year in that volume. But in this quarter, we don't see that to be on a very high side.

Okay. And sir, I think last quarter, we did -- our fuel cost was around INR 1.9 per kcal, and which has come down significantly to INR 1.57. So what changes -- what was the key change here in terms of what...

It is INR 1.75, not INR 1.57.

It's INR 1.75, okay.

Yes. Yes. So we informed last time, we have our inventory, which now with the coal prices going down, the inventory is going down. The lower price inventory is coming up. So that's how it is placed.

[Operator Instructions] We have our next question from the line of Cheragh Sidhwa from Emkay Global Financial Services Limited.

Am I audible?

Yes, sir, you're audible.

Yes. Sir, just a couple of questions. First one is our longer-term target. So in the previous call, we had indicated that post our commissioning the current capacities, we are eventually targeting a 20 million tonne kind of cooking in the next 10 years. So any color on the same? Have we kind of indicated a road map or something on that?

Yes. So I think we are still working on it, but I think we progressed fairly well in that direction. So we are currently working out on a mine in South and also a mine in North in Rajasthan. And I'm still unable to share the information because I think we are still in the talks. But it is going to be a greenfield expansion. We will be buying the mines and then we'll be putting up a plant or we'll be getting mines in auction and then we'll be putting up a plant. So I can't shed more -- much light right now because, I mean, it's a [ bit tricky ] at the moment. I think by next quarter, we should have a possession of at least 1 mine in either of these locations, and we can then discuss more in detail about how we plan to grow. But yes, our target remains that in the next 7, 8 years, we'd want to be at 20 -- by end of this decade, we'd want to be a 20 million tonne something or more.

Sure. Sure. So mostly, it will be kind of an organic expansion, not looking for inorganic at the moment?

Yes, because I think most of the inorganic opportunities, which are floating around in the industry are very big for our size. Some of the smaller players in South are at the moment not willing to sell. And there is no small player left in Rajasthan or East. So from that perspective, we are focusing on growing organically. Of course, the mines may be bought inorganically, but then we'll put up a [ greenfield ] plant in those locations. So this is what we're working out on and this is broadly what we are progressing with.

Sure, sir. That was helpful, sir. And one more question, sir. While our grinding unit has been commissioned 1st of March, while our clinker unit is coming a month or so later. So where are we planning to source our clinker till that period during that gap? Because if I'm not wrong, our clinker capacity is more or less utilized at optimum levels. So till that time, till our clinker gets commissioning and gets starting, from where will be we resourcing our clinker for the Guwahati grinding?

Okay. Okay. So if you look at as far as -- as Deputy already informed, we are expecting 31st March our kiln to start. So it's only a matter of a month, 45 days. And I think we have conserved clinker during the year to take care of our production from that unit in the month of March.

So we have about 1.8 lakh tonnes of clinker stock right now and are producing at full capacity as we speak. So we do expect the stock to help us in running a new plant as well. As well as, the new plant will also not run at 100% capacity from the very start. It will take time to ramp up, [indiscernible] plant as well. So I think it should not be a problem. And in April, our new plant should start producing. So then the clinker shortage will not happen any which way.

Okay. Sure. And sir, just lastly, if I may. On the prices, we saw Northeastern region witnessing INR 7 to INR 8 kind of a price increase in the third quarter. So what have been the trends for the month of Jan from Q3 exit levels? Are there at similar levels or have you seen a decline? And similar for the other Eastern regions from Q3 exit in the month of Jan? That will be it.

More or less it is in a status quo situation. But in quarter 4, it will be [Technical Difficulty] price still be there. But more or less -- still now it has more or less remained stable as it was in December.

[Operator Instructions] We have our next question from the line of Uttam Kumar from Axis Securities Limited.

Congratulations on very good set of numbers. My question pertains to Siliguri unit. So sir, what was our capacity utilization during this quarter for this unit?

Our capacity utilization was around 47%, 48%.

Okay, sir. And how do you see this spanning out in quarter 4?

In quarter 4, it will be better. I think it should be at around 52%.

Okay, sir. This was normally, sir, this plant has not been operating more than 60% last March, it was around 60%. So when can we see the capacity utilization of this plant is going -- moving ahead?

So I mean we have not [ kind of driven ] East, outside Northeast much because we had a shortage of clinker. And outside Northeast is a low price zone for us, where we do not earn as much margins because one thing is the price reduces, and the second thing is that the logistics cost is also high for us. So our margins are very low and outside Northeast. So that's why we never try to utilize our remaining clinker to grow outside Northeast. Once we get the clinker plant, we'll definitely start pushing our material outwards as well, and then we can see a better utilization of [indiscernible].

Okay. And sir, we were also looking to develop logistic for fly ash transportation for the Siliguri unit. So what is the status on that?

The project is underway since it requires some permission from railways. So the work is on. And very soon, we will -- we are expecting those permission to come in. Once those permission comes in, I think then we will be able to place the orders for those wagons and which has a lead time of close to 10, 12 months to get. So we are expecting that project to get commissioned by April next year only.

Okay. And sir, what is the status of AAC block in Guwahati?

That project is also on. I think the land work has been completed. Machinery all orders have been placed. And we are expecting that project also to commission by August.

August of this financial year?

This financial year.

And sir, what is normally margin that we get in AAC -- by selling AAC Blocks?

So the margins in Northeast are very healthy because right now, there is a shortage of AAC Blocks in Northeast. The capacity that we're coming up with and the technology that we're coming up with will allow us the margins of about 25%. And the ROCE of that project would be about 20%.

Okay. And sir, you said our premium cement is around 6.5% this quarter. So how do you see this premium cement -- portion of premium cement moving ahead? 10%, 15% in how much time you are planning for that?

I think premium agenda is one of our core agendas and rather one of our biggest agenda for our volume push as well. So from where we stand today, we look forward to double ourselves by the end of next financial year.

We have our next question from the line of [ Aditya Chheda ] from InCred Asset Management.

So I have 2 questions. One, if you can quantify the incentive structure, which you are supposed to accrue from the new plants, which are due to commission soon? And if there are any other internal efficiencies which are going to help the overall EBITDA per tonne for the company? And if you can quantify the same for me?

So I think good question. So basically, we are supposed to get SGST benefit in Guwahati, the new grinding unit. So first, we'll have to adjust the input credit of the CapEx that we did in Guwahati plant. That -- if we suppose commission the Guwahati plant by 1st of March, in the first 2 to 2.5 months, it will take to utilize the input credit that we'll get on the SGST that we spend on the project. After that, we'll start getting the SGST benefit, that is subject to 200% of the fifth capital investment that we make in the grinding unit. And it would be per tonne, it would be about INR 800 per tonne of benefit and that will get on about 2 million tonnes, which is the capacity of the new grinding unit. So that basically would mean that on a yearly basis we would get about INR 150 crores to INR 160 crores of SGST benefit from that plant for the next at least 5, 6 years. And this would also be true for the Silchar plant whenever it comes. The second would be that in the clinker plant, we are expanding in the clinker in SCL, which is the mother company and we are going from 0.8 million tonne, which is the current capacity of SCL to a 3.3 million tonnes we're adding. And on the 3.3 million tonnes till 2027, we should be getting IGST benefit on the clinker, which would materialize to about INR 300 on the clinker -- INR 300 per tonne on the clinker on that volume that we produce, which is with the new capacity, it will be about 3 million. So this is -- these are 2 subsidy benefits that we are getting. In terms of the efficiency, the new clinker plant would, of course, have a lower heat rate than the 2 lines that we have currently. Right now, we expect the heat rate to fall by about 40 to 45 kcal to about 690 to 700 heat rate. And we also expect some savings on the power because again of new technology and the size. And then we also expect some savings on the fixed cost as we'll be not operating the smallest plant and operating the biggest one, which will have some synergies in terms of manpower and administrative costs. So these are the synergies that we expect from the cost side. The other synergy that we expect from the cost side is also that during season, we have to normally dispatch from our Siliguri plant and Lumshnong plant to compensate for our Guwahati plant because of the capacity constraints. So with the new capacity come in Guwahati, we will also have the advantage that we can serve the market from L1 location, and we do not need to necessarily make divisions there because of capacity constraints. So I think that will also have an indirect benefit in the costing. The third main benefit is in taxation. So our Guwahati plant will be coming under -- it will be commencing before 2024 March, and it will be getting our taxation benefit in the sense that it will be at a lower tax bracket, not 25%, but 17%. And most of our profit would be actually 50% or 40% of our overall profitability coming from the new Guwahati plant because of the subsidy and because we'll be utilizing that at full capacity and taking care as well in our own plant. So from that perspective, there will be also a benefit in the taxation that we see. So these are the 3 main benefits that we see with the expansion. Besides, of course, the fact that we can grow as Vinitji said, that we'll be targeting a 20% growth. So that is, of course, the main reason why we expanded, and that benefit will come. But these are the other side benefits that will help us.

Perfect. Just one clarification. The SGST benefits, the cash accrues with a lag or how does that work if you can just...

It works with the quarter lag normally. So suppose this quarter's GST would be received after a quarter. So right, there's normally a 3, 4 months lag. But in the past also, we have been very efficient in making sure that we do get the money in our bank.

We have our next question from the line of Parth Bhavsar from Investec.

Congratulations on good set of numbers. Sir, the first thing, I just wanted to clarify that the SGST benefit of 200% at Guwahati, you said INR 100 crore to INR 150 crore benefit over 5 to 7 years. Is that correct?

No, I said INR 150 crores benefit every year for the next 5 to 7 years from Guwahati plant alone and then also the same will be repeated in Silchar plant from next year onwards.

INR 150 crores annually for 5 to 7 years. Perfect. Okay. And sir, just wanted to know what sort of incentives did we accrue during the quarter?

In the quarter, we have just accrued INR 6 crores from the IGST benefit in the SCL plant, which we get on the clinker. And just to also -- sorry, just on that point, I would like to clarify that we have done an EBITDA of INR 153 crores versus INR 120 crores last year same quarter even though last year, we had a subsidy benefit of INR 38 crores, which is only INR 6 crores this quarter. So the profitability, if you look at on operational basis has actually gone from INR 85 crores to INR 86 crores to INR 147 crores. If you look at the operational EBITDA. So I think from that perspective, there is a sizable increase in the EBITDA when you actually exclude the subsidy benefit, which was there last year, which was not so much there this year.

So the IGST benefit was clinker unit -- clinker and SCL, right, you said?

Yes. That was the IGST benefit, which was only INR 6 crores. And last year, the overall benefit was INR 38 crores.

Okay. So everything that we see is from the operations itself? Okay.

Yes. Everything broadly is from operations basically.

Right. Right. And sir, when are these benefits getting exhausted at the IGST benefit of INR 6 crores, is it getting exhausted anytime soon?

No, getting exhausted in 2027 end.

2027 end. Okay. Okay. Great. And sir, one other question I had on the existing and the announced CapEx capacity that you've announced. Just wanted to understand what are the lower-hanging fruits in terms of brownfield expansion, if you want to go for the 20 million tonnes of capacity. Are there any low-hanging fruits in terms of brownfield expansion?

So I think because we have already taken so much CapEx in Northeast, putting up a 3.3 million tonne clinker plant and 4 million tonnes of grinding unit, I think for the next 4 years or 5 years, we would not need any expansion in Northeast. Of course, we will be looking -- we'll already be planning to set up our new location for the clinker plant, and we'll start with that work. For the next 4 years, I do not think there will be requirement for more clinker. So the natural progression would be to step outward. And we are looking at mines in south, like how I said -- but those will be like greenfield expansion. I don't think there's any soft easy answer to that. I think we'll have to go for greenfield expansion, and we'll have to grow outside Northeast as well. Of course, with healthy cash flow coming from Northeast.

But I understand that you won't go for any expansion in Northeast over the next 5 years. But do you have such opportunities? In future, the market grows in Northeast or East, do we have such opportunities?

I mean, if the market grows, then definitely. I mean, we want to grow with the market and we want a 30% market share in Northeast, right, that is very, very clear. Right now, we were having about 24%, 25%. We are aiming at a 30% to 32% market share in Northeast, right? I mean, if the market grows more than that, if there's more infrastructure spend in the Northeast than what it is right now, we'll definitely want to grow and make sure that we are there to utilize that opportunity as much as possible, right? We are also open to having an inorganic growth opportunity in Northeast as any of the smaller players who want to sell. But right now from our understanding, no one really wants to sell. So from that perspective, I think we'll definitely be up for it whenever the opportunity does come.

We have our next question from the line of Shravan Shah from Dolat Capital.

Sir, just a couple of things. First, in terms of the -- once this clinker and the grinding will start by March. So the next year, when we are saying 18%, 20% kind of growth, so how one can look at in terms of the first year utilization so because this is also connected to the incentive that we are looking at INR 150 crores, INR 160-odd crores. So is it fair that in the first year, we can have a closer to 50% kind of utilization and by next year, we can have about 70%, 75% kind of utilization?

So I think one thing is that the subsidy benefit is not linked to how we utilize the new capacity, right? I mean because we can always produce from a new plant, so the existing volume. So I don't think it's connected to the subsidy. But to just answer your question, the utilization of the new capacity, for suppose, we're setting up a 3.3 million tonne clinker plant. So we plan to utilize that plant at about 50% capacity. Most of the utilization will come from the sale of cement because we plan to grow at about 20%. And some of the growth -- some of the utilization will come from selling clinker.

Okay. Okay. So -- and then at the grinding level, also the similar kind of -- 50% kind of utilization one can look at. So from 2 million tonne, one can look at a 1 million tonne kind of volume?

Yes. So I think the target that we are setting is of about -- if we talk about if we plan to do about 4.4 million tonnes this year, and we're talking about a 20% growth, then we are talking about more than a 1 million tonne growth in the cement production as well, right? So we are talking about 1.2 million to 1.3 million tonne growth in the cement production, right? So that will, of course, come from a grinding unit in GU because, I mean, we do not have capacity in Northeast otherwise. So we plan to utilize the new capacity of GU by about 60% to 70%. And overall capacity utilization will be higher because other plant -- other grinding units, we are utilizing any which ways.

Okay. Okay. Okay. Got it. Got it. So even if -- as you mentioned, just to clarifying again, even if we, let's say, utilize 50% clinker and 60%, 70% grinding. So despite that the incentive, INR 150 crores, INR 160 crores will definitely will be outflow into the P&L?

No, agreed. Because what we do is that we'll -- because we also have to take some shutdown in our old plant, right, because we need to do some repair work. So what we do is that even the volume which is the whole plant is doing, we'll start doing from a new plant.

Okay. Okay. So I was trying to understand, will it -- let's say, if we have a 1.2 million, 1.3 million tonne volume from the grinding unit, so SGST benefit, INR 800 per tonne will be multiplied to that? Or is it -- because you mentioned...

No, what I'm trying to say is that the new plants will be operating at full capacity, right? The old plant will be operating at 1.2 million tonne capacity then.

Okay. Okay. Okay.

SGST benefit any which ways.

Okay. Okay. Got it. Got it. And second, any -- I understand that it is too early, but in terms of your Rajasthan greenfield, broadly, if you want to understand, will it be kind of only -- max to max kind of a 2 million tonne kind of a capacity that in the first phase we can think of to go ahead with?

Yes. So I think I said that we are looking at opportunity very closely in South and Rajasthan. We are yet to lock at least 1 of the 2 opportunities. So if we do lock that opportunity, we are looking to grow -- we are looking to put up a 2.5 million tonne clinker plant and simultaneously the grinding units accordingly, right? So yes, you can be looking at around that kind of CapEx happening in the next 2, 3 years, yes.

Okay. So broadly, in terms of how one can look at, let's say, 2.5 million tonnes clinker and maybe a 3.5 million, 4 million tonne is grinding if we are looking at this, will it be closer to kind of INR 2,500 crores kind of a CapEx that one can think of because it has a greenfield?

Yes, it will be about INR 2,500 crores kind of the CapEx for the year. Over the next 2.5 years, it will be a INR 2,500 crore CapEx.

Okay. Okay. Okay. And anything broadly for this quarter, if somebody looks at definitely, so now the incentive will be start showing in P&L, our profitability will start again still improving from here on. But for the third quarter, if I have to look at in terms of the profitability, Northeast versus East because last quarter, we have talked about it is kind of a INR 300 kind of profitability in the outside Northeast. So was the number same for this quarter?

Yes. So the numbers were about INR 300 in outside Northeast and about INR 1,700 and -- INR 1,800 in Northeast and INR 300 outside Northeast.

[Operator Instructions] We have our next question from the line of Rajesh Kumar from HDFC Securities.

Congratulations on good set of numbers. My question pertains to first, the South side, Northeast expansions which you're talking about and probably 10 million tonne capacity enhancement over next 4 to 5 years. And if I do -- because this would largely be greenfield, so 10 million tonne would entail around INR 8,000 crores CapEx. And how do you plan to fund this? Because that could be quite sizable from the current balance sheet and the operating cash flows with the company would be making from the Northeast operations?

Yes. So I think we plan to add about 10 million tonnes besides the plan that we've already been working on...

Correct.

That's the target for 2030. So we...

Right.

This year, right? So I think a function of it is, of course, our own accruals, which we think are going to be very healthy in the coming years, right, because of the GST benefit because of the market in Northeastern and because of all the efficiencies which will come along with the new capacities. And the other would be other ways of raising finance, right, which may be at some point, raising money from the market, depending on the opportunity and the size of opportunity which comes, right? So I think as a family, we are very flexible in availing those opportunities, and we do not want to hamper the growth of the company for the lack of finance. So whenever we do need finance, we'll make prudent choices in financing it, so that the company is risk-free, at the same time, we are able to march towards what we targeting.

Okay. And sir, in the -- you talked about incentives on the both the grinding units. But on clinker plant, is there any clarity which has come through what sort of incentive may accrue when you commission it by March end, and for next financial year, one should look at?

Yes. So I think we are looking at a benefit of INR 300 per tonne on the clinker that we produce from the new clinker plant. And what we would try is to make sure that we utilize the new clinker plant as much as possible, not only because of the benefit, but because it is more efficient to run the bigger clinker plant rather than the smaller ones.

Right, right. So it is a production basis is only, right? And not to which unit where you are selling this clinker to?

No, it is based on the production only.

Okay. And Silchar, this incentive would be linked to sales in?

No, this will be linked -- this is IGST benefit.

Correct. No, no, clinker, I understood. The Silchar grinding unit next year which comes to...

Silchar would be linked in Assam as well. So that would be a SGST benefit in Assam.

So how do you -- how are you looking at the Assam market? Because you have 3 million tonnes, which you would be ramping up? And what is the market size of Assam market and for you to maximize the benefit, how much sale you need to...

So this year, for example, we'll be doing about 18 lakh tonnes of sales in Assam alone. The coming financial year, I'm targeting to grow by about 20%.

Around 2.2, 2.3?

Yes. So 2.2, 2.3, it will reach to, right? And plan to get the grinding unit in the next financial year -- next to next financial year, right?

So FY '26 end it will be there.

Yes. So FY '26 September, it should be there, August to September, right? So by that time, my sales should be about 2.6 million tonnes in Assam alone.

And what would be the market size of Assam, sir?

The market size of Assam is about 65% of the Northeast market.

Which would be 5 million tonnes -- 4 million, 5 million tonnes?

7 million to 7.5 million tonnes.

Total market size you're saying, right?

Yes, yes, over time, yes.

No, Assam, you're saying 7.5 million tonne or Northeast is how much you are looking at...

No, Northeast is about 13 million tonnes.

13 million tonnes, okay. So 7.5 million tonnes. And there you are looking to charge at around 2.5 million, 3 million tonnes if you're optimizing more the units?

Yes, yes, yes.

So 30%, 35%. So you're not going -- looking to corner out significantly and hence, less risk to your numbers, right?

I'm sorry?

No, no, I asking the market price is good enough for you to efficiently sell your volume.

Yes, yes, yes. Exactly. And the market will also be growing, no?

Correct, market is growing, from that perspective I was looking at it. Okay. And lastly, this Q4, your incentives from the existing clinker unit, beside GST benefit will be going away, right? And next year, you will have only the major incentives from the new units?

No. So I mean all the incentives which had to go are already gone. The incentives that we have of IGST, which was about INR 6 crores, we'll continue till 2027. It is the same benefit which is continuing in the new clinker plant also because the new clinker plant isn't the same company as the existing one. So the same benefit is actually passing on to the new clinker plant also and that clinker plant will also have this benefit by until 2027.

That was the last question for today. And I now hand the conference over to management for closing comments. Thank you, and over to you.

So I would just like to thank everyone for asking questions, for showing the interest in the company and for following up with the company over a few last 2 years, and we look forward to having more calls and more questions from you next time. If there's any question, any query that one has on the results, they can definitely reach out to the CFO, and they can ask their query, happy to answer. Thank you.

On behalf of Emkay Global Financial Services Limited, that concludes this conference, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.