Stellantis N.V. (STLAM) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

At this time, it is my pleasure to turn the program over to Michael.

Thank you. Good afternoon, good morning, everybody, depending on where you're joining. Thank you for joining us for our next fireside chat on day 1 of our conference. This has been one of the key sessions, I think, that myself and a lot of investors have been waiting for. We're joined today by CFO of Stellantis, Natalie Knight. Natalie, thank you very much for joining us today. Looking forward to sharing these 45 minutes with you.

Let me just jump straight into the Q&A. So we're 2 months through the third quarter. You had some very specific initiatives that you called out as critical at the halfway point of this year. And of course, you're looking to deliver against quite a demanding backdrop and financial objectives that you've set for yourself. So what can you tell us about how the second half is progressing against that?

Yes. Let me start by -- I mean, I'll talk a little bit about industry and then about what's happening at Stellantis. From an industry point of view, I think we're seeing 3 key trends happen. One is market forecasts have moved a little negatively. What we've seen is that at the beginning of the year, there was kind of global growth expected of the 1% to 2%. And if we look at it now, we've seen that moving a little bit into the negative area, maybe negative 1% to 2%. And it's even slightly negative in North America, which is our biggest profit center. Second, what we see is that inventories are generally higher. This is in the U.S. in particular. And here, you've got dealer inventory, I think, of the top 6 automakers is up about 30%, 32% at the end of August. So it's definitely something where that elevates pricing risks as we look at the rest of the year. And of course, the other big topic has been profit margins that we've seen were across the sector, they're moving a lot, especially for companies that are in the top half of the margin rankings like we've been. If you look at us in terms of what's happening, our focus has really been all about how do we get our inventories down, improve the executional issues in North America. When I look at Europe, we made a lot of progress on inventories in the first half. That's something where I think we were one of the few players who actually moved inventories down. We think the level we've achieved there is a good one. So we're going to, I think, work to maintain that, which still requires careful calibration and really looking at production for the rest of the year. In the U.S., however, this is a spot where at the half year, our inventories were a little over 430,000 units. That had days of sales about 94, compared to Europe that was in the kind of 63-ish range. So this is a spot where we've set our first target is to reduce inventories by 100,000 units by the beginning of '25. I think we're off to a solid start. We've taken it down by 40,000 in the months of July and August. We're going to continue to see reductions in September and throughout the year. Obviously, it's one of those things where there's a lot of work to do. It can be a little bit chunky and clunky in terms of how you get there and the seasonality. August is a big month, September is a smaller month, et cetera, as you look at the rest of the year. But those are things where we're, I think, pleased with the progress and just more and more work to do there. And the focus really is being able to have the discipline that we need to because pricing, which was for us moderately favorable in the first half, we had some nice carryover pricing that helped us, is something that's softening in the second half a bit. And that combination of getting the inventory right, playing in this environment that's gotten a little tougher is really the piece that's driving our second half and what's making it challenging and hopefully exciting. We talked about at that period that our goal is to deliver this 10% AOI ambition. That's really the North Star for the business. But at the same time, focusing on how do we resolve the inventory issue. And I just want to make really clear that from my point of view, if we have to make a trade-off, getting ourselves clean for '25 is definitely going to be our top priority. So I think if you look at that piece of saying we've got some work to do in the U.S., we've got a little bit of a toughening macro environment. And then at the same time, we're bringing all this blockbuster of products to market that will really help us in '25 as we move much more heavily into the BEV, LEV and other hybrid futures, that's what has us busy, but also excited about the opportunities.

That's a super useful intro. Thanks, Natalie. What about the third engine? You mentioned quite a lot about Europe and North America. Third engine has been one of the relative brightest spots in the portfolio in the first half of the year. What are the key trends you're observing there?

Third engine continues to be the strongest part of our business. So thanks for the question. You look at that and you split it up a little bit in terms of the different markets. In South America, we've had profitability improvements. It's also been the spot where we have the highest market share in the world, 23%, and we're really dominant in Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Chile, which are the biggest, most important markets there. That is a market where it's all about being local. And we have the big advantage that in that market, people know Fiat for 50 years, know our other brands for a longer period of time. And not only do we have that advantage, but we're now just starting to bring the first products from our STLA platforms to the market. So things like the smart cars that were developed in Asia have now come to Europe, those can come there. In terms of some of the smaller SUVs, there's collaboration. And we'll also see, I think, some really interesting reskins of products, things developed in Europe, where you can bring them to a local production opportunity and find a new market for it. So that's kind of the exciting piece when we look at South America. When we move to the Middle East and Africa, that's another spot where we've had the most growth year-to-date and the highest profitability. It's going to continue to be strong for us. We have very strong positions in a few core markets. I'd like it to be even better. Turkey is one of those markets, and Turkey has been suffering a little bit this year. Algeria is one of the big opportunities, and it still needs to open up more in terms of production and imports for us to fully exploit the opportunities there. But it is a spot where we think there is a lot more opportunity, be it in South Africa and the GCC markets, where we're definitely underpenetrated and where we're able to produce product at, I'll call it, almost Chinese prices. So being very, very competitive. We've recently taken over the #1 position in commercial vehicles. So now we have that spot in Europe, in South America, in the Middle East and Africa. And so it's a spot where we've got a lot of momentum. And then, of course, the other part of the third engine is India, Asia Pacific and China. Those are all very, very small markets for us, sub-1% of the group business, where, again, we need to have solutions for the future. But at the moment, I'm actually pretty pleased it's a very small part of the footprint.

I realized, before I go on with my next question, and I forgot to tell everybody on the webcast that they do have the ability to ask questions. So if you would like to submit a question for Natalie, please submit one via the webcast facility to do that, and I'd be glad to relay them at the end. Okay. So let's move on then to LCV. It's a very important profit pool for you. You've got all of these launches that were supposed to be contributing through this year. I get the sense that maybe there were a little bit of delays in the first half of the year in getting these to market on the 12 new vans that were earmarked for the European market. How is that now progressing? And what is your sense in general for the strength of the LCV market in Europe right now?

So LCVs has actually been a spot where I think we've been pretty good on timing. You can ask me a little bit about some of our BEV launches in Europe, and there are some spots where we could have been a little quicker to market on some of our products, largely software issues that have obviously been resolved and are out in market at the moment. On the LCV side, I think we were actually very close to the initial launch date, I'll say, within 30 days. So definitely there. When we look at that market in Europe, it continues to be a good, strong market. It's also a spot where we're #1 in the BEV piece of the business, which is one of the areas that will grow probably faster than in the private -- in the passenger vehicle side because there is such a focus on the total cost of ownership, and that's something where they can see some of those benefits more quickly. Having said that, everything in Europe is challenged at the moment, and LCVs is, I'll say, not perfect, but a little bit of a bright spot compared to some others. And it really is a spot of looking at how do we get that new product line into our customers because I think many of them have been waiting to update their fleets.

Okay. I see we're getting a huge stream of questions coming in now. So I'm going to try to combine some of these questions with some of my questions to be efficient. So last month, retail sales data out of the U.S. was actually somewhat encouraging. I think we saw Jeep growing year-on-year for the first time in a long time. Ram was still down 15%, I think it was, but still an improvement on the prior months. And at the same time, we've got this backdrop -- and this is where I'm including one of the questions that I've gotten from the audience, we've got this backdrop of quite open public criticism by some of the dealers in the U.S. around some of the Stellantis brands. So how would you reflect on the development of retail sales in Jeep and Ram? And where do you think you are in terms of addressing the key issues with those brands?

So I'll throw in the dealer one at the end, because I think it's a little bit of an adjacent question, but a good one. In terms of where we are on the retail environment, I think this is a spot where -- thank you for calling out the positives. July was a very poor month. So hopefully, that was the trough, and now you're seeing the way -- the movement up. August, there definitely were improvements, and the Jeep One is one that we know as well. When we look at September, we expect to continue to see improvements also in share and inventories as we're moving, and that's something, again, on that kind of March to how do we reduce 100,000 units, we're down 4,000 in the first 2 months. It may not be that same pace through the end of the year, but we expect to continue to see that improve. And I think there that you mentioned, hey, the difference in Jeep and Ram, I'd also call out, be aware of our thoughtfulness of we are all balancing, how do we get to the best position for our brands and also how do we fund the journey. And that's something where we obviously want to protect the profitability of Ram the best we can, which means you may see a little bit of less speed there because the trade-offs are bigger as we look at those by brand. But you will continue to see improvements in each of those brands as we go forward. I think, as I mentioned, trough? Yes. Out of the woods? Not yet. You need to continue to watch us really on a month-to-month basis. I think we are, on the production side, we made the hard call to reduce over 100,000 vehicles in the third quarter. We've also moved on pricing, I'll say, on MSRPs for '25. We've called out some I think, important reductions on the Compass and the Grand Cherokee on the Jeep side, inside the products that are limited '23 and '24s. We've also looked at either coupons or now more consumer-facing activities so that we make sure we're really making that not be a hindrance to people, consumers as they come in. And we've also done a whole lot of work on our purchase funnel so that we're getting much more accurate information on leads, lead conversion rates, et cetera, so that we can really, I'll say, optimize also the math behind -- or the science behind the art in terms of how we optimize those sales. So I think we're doing the right things. As I mentioned, our focus is really top priority, how do we get North America to a better, healthier position for '25. And we will do what is necessary to make sure we are able to achieve that. With respect to the dealer question that was asked, when times are tough, you get friction everywhere. And we're making what is not only a whole systemic change in the sector to be BEV, hybrid PHEVs and more, but at the same time, we've got some executional issues on our own front that we have to correct. And that means we all have to work together if we want to be able to move forward in a good way. So you picked the dealer's question, I assume you could have also asked about suppliers or unions. I think we are working hard to try to find solutions that work for all of our stakeholders to make the best path forward. And when it comes to dealers, people ask me a lot, "Well, what do the dealers want?" It's really quite easy. They want to have lower inventories and more profitability. And I think the things that we're doing, we've made a very big step on that front, and we are committed to doing what's required to get not only them in a better financial position, but most importantly, our own business, our employees and everything as we go forward.

All right. And I think the topic of pricing is probably the most -- one of the most important ones in the sector at the moment. I think that the lack of growth in retail sales is clearly telling you that cars have become unaffordable. And I think most companies have admitted that. So when you guys think about pricing, how much of sort of pricing adjustments or tactical adjustments that you're looking to make or accommodate over the next number of months can be offset by reducing costs? And how much do you think is there may be an element that is just structurally too high, and you've got to take a choice whether or not you're happy to live indefinitely with a lower volume level?

It's a good question, because I guess I'd look at it -- I would frame it a little differently, which is I think there's a short-term issue, which is operationally driven, mostly North America-driven, where we need to look at what's the best way we bridge the gap to getting to that point where we're at a healthier level. And that's doing all those tactics that I mentioned, whether it's the production, whether it's the pricing, whether it's the purchase funnel, being smarter on all of those fronts. And I think the piece that you've seen in the last couple of months is this focus also not just on what's a one and done, how much to reduce production, but trying to calibrate the supply and the demand better so that if we've seen on a given vehicle, we didn't have the demand that was necessary, we didn't hesitate to close facilities for a week or 2 at a certain time to make sure we were really getting the product as needed and not creating something that would cause more problems along the route. And that's something that's new in terms of how we've done that, and I think it is helping us in the process. When you look at the, I guess I'd call it, the longer-term view in terms of what do we think is needed in terms of pricing on vehicles and what's the trade-off of pricing and volumes, in the longer-term view, we think we've got a good solution which is we have a whole lot of products coming that have not been in market, that are going to address a lot of these important issues. We've got multi-energy platforms where we're going to go from 20 to 5 platforms with 90% of our product. We're going to do reskins across the globe, where it's 60% of the product and you save 60% of the cost 20% of the time in terms of producing those products. And then you've got all the slew of product that is more affordable. When we look at the EVs we'll have in Europe, 4 vehicles by the end of the year that are under EUR 25,000. We'll have the Leapmotor 2 vehicles out there that are also very competitive from a price point of view. We have the top in terms of range. We've got a lot more in the C segment than what we've ever had before, 7 new products. So in the long term, I think we're also in a great spot. Then you've got maybe this medium term, which is, hey, after you get through the end of the year, what do the next year or 2 look like? And I think that's going to be driven by many factors. And the hardest one for me to predict for you is what are all of our competitors going to be doing. Because everybody is starting in a different place, everybody has different challenges in terms of their BEV mix, their BEV/ICE mix, and also the profitability of those vehicles. We're in a pretty fortunate position that we come into '25 when all of the BEV requirements start to get tougher in a spot where we have a pretty nice mix, we have nice things moving in our direction, and we've got this new set of products coming. But I don't know what our competitors will need to do. And if you start something that's more aggressive, it does become really challenging. If I look at the U.K. this year, it's a little bit of a predecessor, perhaps, of what we're going to be seeing in the rest of Europe in the next year. That was a spot where we are confident we're going to be able to hit ZEV mandate by the end of the year. We're confident that we're going to do it at reasonable profitability. Would I like it to be more profitability? Always but because we've got to calibrate what is going on in pricing. But it is something where we were able to do a lot on our cost base, where we were to be able -- able to be very creative with what were the commercial offers in terms of how do we get things that are going to be very suitable to the audience. And I think it did take for our business, probably a period of about 6 months of calibrating what does that secret sauce look like to win in that market. And that's probably something that's going to happen in all of the major markets as we go forward in Europe and subsequently in the U.S., because different brands are in different spots on that. And also our white space is competitively indifferent.

Okay. So maybe then coming at it from a slightly different direction, your numbers this year have been impacted a bit by some one-offs, some cost overruns in North America around launching new platforms, higher R&D spend because you're ramping these new platforms. Sort of on a more steady-state basis and what you know about where your cost base is like to be -- likely going to be a year or 2 from now, how much sort of pricing downside do you think that your double-digit margin AOI target can absorb?

I think that is a good question in terms of, again, what time -- what period of time. If we look at those out on the cycle to 2030, that is 100% our plan in terms of how do we get there. And we have an annual total product cost target, where we intend essentially to be able to take the cost down at a rate that exceeds what the BEV increase in percent of our revenue will be. That may not be the case if you look at the next 2 years in terms of how does that -- what's the perfect match. And we are expecting there is some dilution that we have to fight very, very hard with cost-cutting. And we're doing that in terms of, as you said, you'll see R&D, CapEx, M&A, more normalized levels. They were elevated a bit this year. I think that's something I hear from my peers as well in terms of their activities. We're doing a lot in terms of our -- the big drivers for us on cost reduction, one is going to come from this multi-energy platforms, where I expect that to be literally billions of savings as we bring -- going from 20 platforms to 5, and having about 60% common products -- componentry on those platforms. The other big one, which we haven't mentioned is on the supply side, we're moving to have by 2028, 80% of our supply coming from best cost countries. And that's something where you have a, I'll call it, double digit, low double digit, but a double-digit reduction in price by being able to do that, and it's 80% of the car price. So that is also very, very substantive. So while you always continue to hear at Stellantis what can we do in terms of head counts, what can we do in terms of other cost savings, the 2 really big drivers for us are going to be on those platforms and also on the supply cost.

That's very clear. And if you were to try to put a number on sort of the cost overruns and one-off impacts and higher R&D spend that you're having to incur this year, would you be able to do that? Like how much cost that is hitting your income statement this year goes away for next year?

I have a good number in my head. I think I'll save that one, Michael, for one of our formal presentations perhaps the next quarter or with the full year results. But it's definitely sizable. It's -- you can imagine, it's certainly, just alone from the R&D costs, that I said, "Hey, you're going to see us be able to reduce that by EUR 1 billion in 1 half of the year to the next." This number is -- we're talking about certainly a sizable number.

Okay. It's a meaningful number. That helps.

Yes.

Okay. And I guess, linked to that, you had some challenges with the launch of the new platforms. Where are you now in terms of that process? Do you feel like you've found your way through those challenges? Are you getting up to speed with the production runs yet as expected? Or are there still some more challenges?

I think it's improved dramatically. What we saw was that if you look at our business, we have 20 new products coming to market this year, which is more than we'd ever done. And maybe we're a little ambitious in the schedule and being able to get all of those out on time and full. And what happens is once you have one slowdown, that means your cadence is a little bit off as you move forward. So when I look at this, I think what's very important is we have, I'll call it, probably the 2 biggest from a moneymaker side are already out there with the Peugeot 3008 and 5008, the ë-C3, which is kind of the breakthrough product on the Citroën side now in market. So -- and of course, the CVs, as we talked about, those came out in the second quarter. So I think you're starting to see those things come through. What you saw in most of our products when they were issues, they were largely software in nature. And that means it's not big time impacts in terms of getting there, but it is tinkering until you get it right so that you don't end up in a spot as -- I know one of our peers, they've had to recall the product. And that is something that is just that's -- there's a lot of things in e-vehicles that are easier, but that's one of the parts that is more complex. So I would say, in general, you've seen several of our products that have had a bit of a lag. But I do feel like we're in a much better place than we were in terms of the first half where you'd seen a couple of things slip either a quarter or into the second half.

Right. And so if we think about that sort of new model cadence or the contribution of new models to sales, I think you -- at the CMD, you highlighted that, that was likely to be 5% to 10% in H1. And the expectation was that we get to between 15% and 20% in H2. Are you still on track for that? Or do you think it might get pushed out a little bit into the first half of next year?

I feel actually pretty good about that number. I mean could we be off by 2% or 3% or something? Maybe. But I think directionally, that's exactly where we're headed.

Okay. That's quite encouraging. You mentioned a few moments ago recalls. They are starting to become more topical at a sector-wide level, I guess. And I guess it's got something to do with the fact that you've had traditional OEMs trying to get BEVs to market much quicker, and you're reducing development times, I guess, to try to keep market share. Not pointing fingers at Stellantis, I mean, I think it's an industry issue in general. But also for Stellantis, I saw a recent announcement that around 1.5 million Ram trucks were getting recalled as well. It looked like they were relatively small recalls. But just want to get a sense, is that something that could be a significant cost for you this year? And perhaps more broadly speaking, we've also seen in the first half of this year that the below-the-AOI-line costs have increased quite significantly. So perhaps give us a sense for where we are in terms of that. Is it expected to go down from here or stay at elevated levels for a bit longer?

Yes. I think two very different issues. One, on Ram, this is something -- again, it was just an ABS configuration mismatch. And you're right, it's about 1.4 million vehicles. It was a really simple remedy. It's just a software flash. So there's no parts required or anything like that. So this isn't something where you would expect this to be a big expense. Recalls, warranty, quality, always critical in this industry, always very important for us. And we've probably seen more conversation on the Europe side on Takata, which obviously is something we had accrued for a long time ago and have now looked at just making sure that we really get people to have the best service possible. When we look at the other question that you asked, which was about everything below the line in terms of unusuals, if you look at the first half, we had a very high number there. I would call it extraordinarily high. And that was tied to, on the one hand, smaller EUR 300 million or EUR 400 million impact of Maserati platform write-off. And the bigger piece was restructuring in Europe, which has continued. If we look at things going forward, I don't think we'll see any kind of a number like that in the second half. But you -- I think if you look at the next few years, you will continue to see restructurings going on in the business. I think we've been more progressive than most of our peers. Now we needed to with the merger and bringing the 2 companies together. But as we move forward, there are going to continue to be places where you say, do we have the right capacities, do we have the right set ups? As I said, I don't want to call out any big numbers to be worried about in the second half of this year. But I do think it's an area where you should continue to model something in for us going forward, and maybe similar for our peers as well.

Right. Okay. I'm also joined -- sorry, I didn't introduce him in the beginning because he hadn't joined us yet, but I'm also joined by my colleague, Horst Schneider, who heads up European autos and also covers the German OEMs and suppliers. And Horst is going to help me out with relaying some of the questions from the audience. So Horst, over to you.

Yes. Natalie, hello.

Hi.

I'll make it quick. A fair question here from the audience, which also affects one of the companies that I cover. So I'm lead analyst for Volkswagen. And of course, they are running the most behind on CO2 target. And we have now little bit of the lobby initiative also made by Luca de Meo, by the Head of the European Car Association, to maybe alleviate the targets a little bit. What's your view on that? I mean, you rightly pointed out already, you're in a comfortable position. So yes, what's your view on that? You would be in favor of that or not? Do you think it's likely or not? What's your view?

So I think it's a lot more likely than not that nothing changes, because I think the EU is far down the path of what they want to do. Now there are more people advocating for this than what you've seen 90 days ago. And I think that shows we're coming into a challenging position. From our perspective, this is very difficult. This is what the government has asked us to be ready for, and we're ready. We've got good products. We've got profitable vehicles, and we're ready for the race. And we honestly don't think it's fair to be changing the rules in the middle of the game when everybody's had clear warning of what's coming, what the timing is. And I also think, at the end of the day, it's a question of do you want more pain quickly or the same pain over a longer period of time. Because it is something where, '25, whether you have this or you have some kind of moderated form of the ZEV targets and everything, it is still going to be really challenging on the BEV side. But it's something where, as I said, we feel like we've done all the work, we're ready, and we would like to jump in full speed ahead.

Yes. Another question that came in is here on your value over volume strategy. I think you were the carmaker which invented the slogan actually, right? So it was invented by Carlos in 2014 when he took over, and you successfully executed on that for something like, yes, nearly 10 years now. Then of course, we have got the Dare 2030 plans in mind, where you aim for the doubling of the revenues. So of course, there seems to be some tension that, of course, this value over volume is difficult to double revenues. So therefore, where is the priority long term? Is it still on great price position, great margin? Or at some point -- I mean, now we see that also a little bit in the U.S., you need to reduce inventory, you need to put a little bit more volume towards that. What's long term the trade-off between volume and value and price?

I think our belief is, in the long term, you can't have it all. In the short term, there are some trade-offs to be made. And if we have to make trade-offs, we will choose the value over volume. Because we do think we're living in very difficult times where there are going to be winners and losers, and a lot about being a winner is being the last man standing. And that means you've got to have good volume -- or values, you've got to have good value, you've got to have good margins, you've got to be in a strong position from a cash flow point of view. And if you can do that with volumes, this is an industry where that really helps, right? Well, there's a lot of economies of scale here. But there may be places where we need to make that trade-off. And what we've been able to do in the last few years is really work our way into that position of having -- I think moving from being low to mid-priced to, in many cases, premium. And what that gives us is the ability to say we don't have to be the #1 in every category, we want to be in that top quartile of pricing. But because we've worked so hard on the cost side, it gives us a little bit of the flexibility to move within that range, which allows us to, on the one hand, keep value, not take massive hits on the volume, but be in a position that we will believe is sustainable as we move forward.

Yes. And I know that Carlos talked also, when was it, more beginning of the year, I think he alluded to M&A potential. One opportunity may be to increase volumes sooner or later to participate in industry consolidation. Is that something that Stellantis would still look into if it would make sense, of course, just for the company, but just in order to consolidate volumes grow or gain market share, right? Because now, I think your global market share is down to something like 6%, and you can prop it up again by M&A if that makes sense. Would that be on your agenda?

I think it's something that -- let's say this. I think it always is an opportunity for us. We're probably the company who has most successfully shown we know how to do M&A on a big scale in this industry. So if there are opportunities that present themselves, I think that is a spot where we would be ready to play. And it's also our focus in terms of making sure that we have the right value proposition. Because it's much easier to look at how do you gain scale or optimize scale than it is to look at how do you get your pricing, your cost structures, everything else to the right level. And that's the thing we tinker on every day to say how do we get it better. So I think that piece of going after the big multi-platform approach, improving our sourcing setup, that allows us to play at the scale we're at, which is already quite big. But it's also something, if there were other opportunities in the future, you could scale pretty easily. So I think our focus, let me make very clear, is on how we drive the business we've got today. That's a spot where we have lots of things to do and homework and things to prove. But we are and will always be a company that, when there are opportunities, we're going to be open to them if that's something where Stellantis can drive better value for the market.

Yes. And then last question also here from the audience on that topic. It's basically the opposite on M&A. It's maybe related to the brand portfolio, because we know you have got lots of brand and portfolio, some people say maybe too many, if you look at the units per brand. Of course, from a platform perspective, it doesn't matter how many brands you have. But what's your view on that, when it's getting time basically to consolidate the brand portfolio maybe especially in Europe, right?

Yes. I don't think we're there yet. I think when you look at our brands, at the beginning of Dare Forward, Carlos made a comment that said, "Hey, I want to give every brand 10 years to make their mark and then we can decide." That still feels like a long way away. But what I would say is, I think having 14 brands is something that's our USP for us in the business versus most of our competitors who play with one big name. And when we look at things like CVs, this is a critical value. The products are almost identical, but people in individual markets have a loyalty. They have the customer service. All of those things are used with a brand that really helps us. As you mentioned yourself, when we look at using these big global platforms, looking at reskins where you can use things across the market, I think there's great opportunity. It doesn't mean we don't have opportunity to rationalize how we work within the brands. I think that's a fair feedback to us and something we should also look at to say how do we make sure that if you look at North America, I think that's a spot where we've segmented very well, right? If you want an SUV, you buy Jeep. If you want a truck, you buy Ram. If you want a minivan, you buy Chrysler. If you want a muscle car, you buy Dodge. In Europe, it's not that clear. And there may be things there where we need to be tidier with how we approach our brands in different markets and in different segments. But I think the utilization of the brands is something that we still see as a big value add for us.

Okay. Interesting. Michael, back to you.

Yes. Thanks, Horst. I'm going to double up on a question that I asked earlier, Natalie, just because I think it's so critical to the investment case here. When we think as an analyst community about the cost opportunities that Stellantis has, and I'm thinking also in the content of fixed cost under absorption that you've suffered this year because of lower volumes, I'm thinking about headcount reductions where Stellantis has been very, very strong. I'm thinking about what you're doing on the supplier side and thinking about the synergies. I mean how much emphasis should we be placing on those measures over the next 2 to 3 years? I know kind of back of the matchbox, last year, we were talking about synergies, unlocked potential of EUR 1 billion to EUR 1.5 billion a year, I think, was what we were looking at. I think everybody knows what the bill of materials looks like in terms of employee costs. I mean is this something that you would still sort of stand behind and highlight as a key selling point or behind the equity story for Stellantis for the next year or 2?

Absolutely. And even beyond that. I mean, I think if you go out to 2030, we ought to have at least as many synergies as we have accomplished so far. So I mean that definitely supports a number like what you're talking about. This is something where the amount that is going to come from having these multi-energy platforms. I mean, just imagine, if you think about it, you've got a line where it's not just do you have a black, silver or white vehicle coming off, but you can also have an ICE vehicle or hybrid BEV coming off, and you can do that for 5 lines around the world that take 90% of our products. There is going to be nobody else out there that has anything like that. And that's something for us that is huge, huge, huge in terms of the synergy potential. I think, as I said, that alone is as big as what we've generated so far. Then you add to it the supplier piece, which is 80% of the cost. There, if you just imagine a reduction of 10% or 15% as you move to best-cost country, that's, again, a sizable amount in the billions. And then you look at all the other things that, as you rattled off, are things we're really known for in terms of continuing to prove our -- the efficiency of our employee base, especially on the white collar side, but across the board, continuing to have the R&D efficiency where we said, "Hey, we want to be 30% more efficient than any of our peers." As we continue those things, that part of the story is really critical for us in terms of how we keep squeezing more juice out of the lemon in terms of our story and our success as a business.

Sure. All right. There was a question from the audience on LatAm. It's obviously a key part of your third engine, but it's also a region where we're starting to see pretty significant market share gains for some of the Chinese players. I know Carlos had mentioned at the CMD that there is a possibility of tariffs there. Have you got any more visibility on that as things currently stand?

In terms of tariffs?

Yes.

Yes, there definitely are tariffs coming, particularly to Argentina, which are essentially ramping up. I think it starts at 16%, that number might -- plus or minus a percent, and ramping up about 5% a year. So that's a number where it will become tougher and tougher to get there. And there will also be I think, different numbers when you bring it from within South America than when you bring it from elsewhere. So that one's going to be tougher. And in Brazil, there are going to be requirements in terms of localized production as a percent of sales.

Right. Okay. Cash is the other key calling card for Stellantis as you mentioned, I think, at the last earnings call. I think you laid out a few building blocks for cash development in the second half of this year. Are you still feeling comfortable with that development? Are there any sort of key developments on inventories that I think need to be met to be able to get there? Yes.

I think the biggest thing on cash is what happens with our AOI. And that's always the core metric there. And as I said, we're pushing really hard to get to that 10%. It is an ambitious target for us. It's not a walk in the park. It's not a done deal. And that's -- whatever your assumptions are, they are going to be the biggest ones. In terms of the other working capital factors, we are building down our inventories in North America, which is our -- the biggest part of our working capital. You will see improvements in our payables as we go through into the end of the year. And you will see a lower R&D and CapEx than what we've had in the first half. So I think the -- some of the headwinds that we had in the first half will get better in the second half. And then it's just a factor of what are your assumptions about the core of the business that will be the biggest driver.

Yes. I mean on the AOI point, I think consensus is already below 10% for H2 now at this point. And I think it has a lot to do with the volume development in the second half to date. Are there any other sort of puts that are maybe working to offset that slightly weaker-than-expected volume development in the second half yet?

I think when you look at the pieces, I mean, I can give you positives in terms of some of our third engine markets are continuing to outperform, and we're pleased with that development. But what I would say is, for me, the most important thing about AOI, and I'm sorry to be a little repetitive on this topic, is I just want to make sure that our business is in the best possible place as we enter '25. And I think we're doing the right things. In terms of Europe, we've gotten to a good healthy spot on inventories. We're looking to make sure we're ready for the big push on BEVs. And we're not waiting for '25. We're very, very focused on what can we do now to show the market how seriously we take that. And when it comes to the U.S. that's a spot where we just need to get our inventories in a healthier position so that we can, I think, really start with a fresh slate as we go into '25.

Right. And then I guess, possibly the biggest focus for investors, and it's been a big focus for you, shareholder returns. I know at the CMD, your ambition was that you could raise the dividend payout ratio to the ceiling. And hopefully, by doing that, even possibly increase the dividend in absolute terms, especially after you take share buybacks into account. I guess that depends a lot also on the AOI development into the rest of the year. But I guess one question that I'm getting quite a lot is in terms of the way you determine the dividend, is that going to continue to be calculated against net income? Or is there a possibility that you could shift to [ adjusted ] EPS as a metric there? Yes, let me stop there and ask you another question on shareholder returns after that.

So maybe just high level on shareholder returns. You know that we're planning this year to bring out EUR 7.7 billion in capital. And we said we're going to target that higher end of the dividend range of, I'll call it, closer to the 30%. Then in the last few years, it's been 25%. Your question implied would we go beyond that? Because obviously, if you look at what's likely to happen on the earnings, it looks like it's -- they're going to be lower than they were in the last year. I think it's just -- it's too soon to give a commentary on that. That's -- I don't want to lock the door that we wouldn't consider it, but I also would say we're still early days. We want to see where everything comes together. In terms of your question on how do we calculate it, it is based on the net profit. And while I love the adjusted EPS because this is something that is -- that we're bringing out, but it's basically a performance indicator so you can see us versus our peers. It isn't the way we calculate dividend. And I think maybe the most important thing is when we look at '25 and beyond, we are very committed to everything that I said at Investor Day, which is, how do we bring strong and consistent capital returns in '25 and beyond, and that includes the dividends and the share buyback.

Right. And if I look at consensus expectations, which even factor in a lower AOI, I guess, in the second half of the year, cash generation still seems quite healthy, and Stellantis' net liquidity or gross liquidity position will still be above the range that you laid out at the CMD. And so going forwards, to the extent that you wouldn't move on the way you calculated the dividend, what are the possibilities there? Would it just continue to be expressed in terms of share buybacks? Or would Stellantis ever consider a special dividend as an option?

I think that's one where, I would say, special dividend, unlikely. Could you consider the dividend range? Yes. And of course, we still have the share buybacks as an opportunity. So I think the most important thing for us is we do see '24 as a transition year. It's not the new normal. And that means when we look at capital returns, we would definitely want to look at something that gives investors confidence in that same outlook.

Right. And maybe one final question, because I know we're 3 minutes or 4 months over time, a lot of investors are looking for the inflection point. Stellantis has been a great story over the last number of years. You've had a tough 2024. So what is sort of the main data point do you think that investors can look to as a clear sign that you guys have turned the corner? Is it as straightforward as market shares in the U.S. and Europe? Or is there anything else you would point to?

I think the one that I'm hearing from most people is even simpler than that, which is just looking at inventories and how they improve in North America. And if that's the KPI, then I'd say, first, look at the progress against the 100,000 that we've called out, then look at when do you get to, what I'll call, an industry normalized level in terms of days of sale, which may be a little bit behind that, but definitely something in our route. And then I think the piece as you go forward is it's a mix of different factors there, which is market share is a little bit of a lagging indicator, so it's not uninteresting. But it's what is the development in those core areas where we wanted to grow. In the U.S., we still have some white spaces we need to get back into where we look at midsize SUVs and other vehicles where we haven't been playing in some of the growth categories. In Europe, it will be very strongly in terms of our success in the BEV segment. I think that's definitely a thing to watch in terms of how we compete versus our peers. And I think when we do all of those things and then you continue to hear the progress that we're making on really getting the how we do it with the cost side in place, those would be the things I would be looking at. And again, you can pick a subset of those or if you want to go really high level, you just start with North American inventories. But I do believe all of those are very much in focus for the company these days.

Clear. Thanks, Natalie. I think Horst has one last question for you.

One last question that I ask to every company that participate in our fireside chat. We have got a buy rating on Stellantis. But Natalie, just tell us in a few seconds, can we also say why people should buy Stellantis now?

Thank you. That's like a great question to end on, because I think if you look at our business at the moment, we're one of the largest companies. We've got a great power play of products coming out, if you look at the next 12 months and the commercial value of it. And we're probably the most undervalued in the sector. So we've made some mistakes this year, and we've -- I think, I'll say, paid the price in the share price. So now is a great time when you see, when you believe that inflection point has come, will come, that's each investor's decision. I think that shows an automatic recalibration that our share price should bring, vis-a-vis our peers. That's a great opportunity in itself. And as we've spoken, just that ability for us to, I'll say, survive and thrive in what is going to be a pretty difficult industry, I think we've got one of the best long term -- medium and long-term plans out there in the industry. And that's -- that combination of there's a quick catch up in terms of what you can do with share price and then the strong strategic positioning as you look at us medium, long term, which gets me excited about the investment opportunity.

Excellent. I think that was a very good conclusion remark. I couldn't have made a better one. Thank you for joining us today.

Thank you very much. Have a great one.

Thank you, Natalie.