Stockland (SGP.AX) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Welcome to Stockland's First Half '25 Result Briefing. [Operator Instructions] I'll now hand over to Tarun Gupta, Managing Director and CEO, for opening remarks.

Good morning and thank you for joining Stockland's half year 2025 financial results update. I'm Tarun Gupta, Managing Director and CEO of Stockland. Before we begin, I'd like to acknowledge the traditional owners and custodians of the land on which we meet, the Gadigal people of the Eora Nation and pay my respects to elders past, present and emerging. Joining me today is Alison Harrop, our CFO; Kylie O'Connor, CEO of Investment Management; and Andrew Whitson, CEO of Development. In the past 6 months, we have made significant progress executing on our strategic priorities and positioning Stockland for sustainable growth, while also delivering a solid financial result in line with our expectations and strong operational performance. Pre- and post-tax funds from operations for the period was $251 million, reflecting a larger second half skew this financial year than last. FFO per security was $0.105. Strong contributions from the Logistics portfolio and the Land Lease development business were offset by reduced earnings from prior period town center disposals, a material second half waiting in Masterplanned Communities settlement volumes and an absence of realized Commercial Development profits this half. The MPC portfolio acquisition made only a small earnings contribution, given the timing of transaction completion. Our balance sheet metrics remain strong and we were pleased to record positive investment property revaluations during the half, driving an increase to NTA per security. Gearing remains within our target range, notwithstanding a significant expected cash flow skew to the second half. In late November last year, we were pleased to finally complete the acquisition of a portfolio of 12 actively trading Masterplanned Communities that we announced at the end of 2023. With the newly acquired portfolio now integrated into our platform and the launch of 2 additional communities during the half, 81% of our residential pipeline is now active and we expect to drive further activation with additional project launches this half. This provides us with a high degree of flexibility around the timing of stage releases to meet demand. And importantly, it allows us to increase the supply of affordably priced housing options at a time when overall market supply is constrained. We also extended our Residential platform by being named the preferred proponent alongside our consortium partners to deliver more than 3,000 apartments at Waterloo in New South Wales, which will become one of Australia's largest and most significant inner city renewal initiatives. We are proactively engaging with Homes New South Wales as we work towards contract completion. While driving a targeted increase in our exposure to residential sectors, we have also continued to reshape our Investment Management portfolio through the conversion of our Logistics, Town Centres, and Communities Real Estate pipelines. In assessing development options, we remain focused on achieving the highest and best use for all our assets. To that end, we recently secured power and zoning for over 100 megawatts of data center development at Stage 2 of our MPark project in Sydney. And we are exploring additional data center opportunities across our Logistics pipeline. As we progress these opportunities, we will remain disciplined regarding required returns and capital deployment. We have expanded our capital partnering into the Logistics sector, forming 2 new partnerships with M&G Real Estate and KKR. The combined partnerships have an initial portfolio value of approximately $800 million, and we are delighted to have attracted such high caliber investors to the platform. We also grew our existing Land Lease partnership with Invesco, with the transfer of 4 additional communities from our pipeline. We have continued to progress our ESG strategy, and we have maintained our leadership position on key indices and ratings. Our renewable energy partnership with Energy Bay is on track to deliver net-zero Scope 2 emissions at the end of this calendar year. Turning now to the progress we have made against the strategic priorities we announced in 2021. Over the past [ 3 ] years, we have been very deliberate in implementing our strategy in a way to position us for sustainable growth with multiple drivers now established across the business. We have reshaped the portfolio toward the Residential and Logistics sectors, both of which continue to benefit from structural tailwinds. Strategic acquisitions and higher activations have positioned our MPC and LLC businesses for a step change in production volumes. We have also broadened our Residential platform with a pipeline of medium-term opportunities in the build-to-sell and build-to-rent apartment sectors. We are actively converting our Commercial Development pipeline into high-quality investment assets for us and our partners across the Logistics neighborhood retail and Community Real Estate sectors. And having already delivered our first data center, we are now looking to unlock additional opportunities across the portfolios. We have established 7 new capital partnerships over this period with leading institutional investors, which provides us with ongoing access to capital to fund our growth and generates meaningful high-quality management income, which improves our return on invested capital. Having substantially reshaped our portfolio and put multiple growth drivers in place, we are now sharpening our focus on high-quality execution of this pipeline to drive sustainable growth. I'll now hand over to Alison, who will take us through the financial result.

Thanks, Tarun, and good morning, everyone. As highlighted in December, the financial result for the first half of '25 reflects a material second half '25 skew in residential development, greater than the skew reported in the second half of '24. Pre- and post-tax funds from operations was $251 million, down 5.6%, while FFO per security, pre- and post-tax, was $0.105, also down 5.6%. The Investment Management portfolio delivered FFO of $298 million, down 7% on the first half of '24. This primarily reflects almost $700 million of asset disposals in FY '24. With the Investment portfolio delivering comparable growth of 3.5%, Investment Management fee income broadly in line with the first half of '24, and logistics development completions contributing to the result. The Development segment delivered FFO of $36 million, with strong contributions from Land Lease and Development Management Fee income more than offset by the material second half '25 MPC settlement skew, and no contribution from third-party Commercial Development activities for this half. Unallocated corporate overheads were down 5%, demonstrating disciplined cost control as we continue to position for growth. On a combined basis, unallocated and divisional overheads were up 4%. Net interest expense was down for the period. A slightly higher period average debt balance and weighted average cost of debt was more than offset by an increase in the proportion of interest capitalized, as we activated more of our development pipeline to increase production rates. For build-to-sell development inventories, this capitalized interest gets expensed in cost of goods sold in future periods. No tax expense was recognized for the half due to the impact of the MPC settlement skew on FFO. Moving on to capital management. We've maintained a strong balance sheet position over the half, with gearing remaining well within our 20% to 30% target range after absorbing a significant earnings and cash flow skew to the second half. For the full year, we expect gearing to be closer to the midpoint of our 20% to 30% target range. Our weighted average cost of debt for the half was 5.3%, and we expect this to average around 5.4% for the full year. Our fixed hedge ratio average for the half increased to 79%, as we took advantage of favorable pricing to secure longer-dated fixed rate debt in FY '24. Our near-term debt expiry profile remains manageable, with around $600 million of drawn expiries over the next 12 months, and we have $2.2 billion of liquidity, providing good forward coverage of expiries, as well as funding flexibility for the group. We activated the distribution reinvestment plan for the half, and we continue to focus on actively managing our capital settings to support growth. Now on to cash flows. Operating cash flow for the first half of FY '25 was negative $187 million. This reflects an increased level of development spend for Masterplanned Communities and Land Lease, and the second half weighting of MPC settlement cash inflows. We expect a materially stronger operating cash flow result in the second half. So in summary, we have delivered a strong underlying result in line with our expectations, the balance sheet is in good shape, and we continue to position the business for growth. I'll now hand to Kylie to take us through the Investment Management result.

Thanks Alison, and good morning. The first half of FY '25 has seen another period of positive contribution from the Investment Management business, with ongoing execution of our strategy, including expansion of our capital partnership platform. The business has delivered a strong result, primarily driven by the recurring net revenue derived from our diversified portfolio. The result reflects the strength of our high quality, well-located Logistics portfolio and associated development completions, the nondiscretionary nature of our optimized Town Centre portfolio, the planning, delivery and capital partnering of Workplace and living projects, and the integrated asset management approach of our team. We've delivered 3.5% positive comparable FFO growth over the period. The result was underpinned by the strong contribution from the Logistics portfolio and our growing Communities Rental Income, which includes revenue from 8 established land lease communities, as well as income from the expanding portfolio of build to hold community real estate assets. Occupancy remains high across Logistics and Town Centres, while positive releasing spreads were recorded across each of the Logistics, Workplace and Town Centre portfolios. Management fee income was broadly in line, with higher contributions from Land Lease and our renewable energy partnership, offset by lower fees from MPark. Our Logistics portfolio delivered very strong performance, with comparable FFO growth of 8.7%, positive leasing spreads of 33.2% and 159,000 square meters of leasing completed. This result reflects the high-quality nature of the portfolio and the assets benefiting from access to strong market rental growth. The leasing result was driven predominantly by deals in our New South Wales assets, where we continue to see good demand and low market vacancy levels. Occupancy remains high at 97.3%, noting the completion of Altona Industrial Estate at the end of the half, with subsequent leasing pushing occupancy to 98.1%. The portfolio WALE at 3.2 years allows us to capture further rental growth, as will the ongoing delivery of the development pipeline. Our Workplace portfolio at $1.7 billion represents a low exposure to the commercial office sector, with the majority of assets positioned for future redevelopment. While these assets are strategic holds with significant future value, our strategy is to ensure the highest level of operating income while preparing the assets for redevelopment. Pleasingly, positive leasing spreads of 1.7% were recorded during the half, primarily driven by new leases at the Piccadilly Complex here in Sydney. Comparable FFO growth of negative 1.1% was impacted by higher vacancy levels in the Perth and Macquarie Park markets. Our optimized Town Centre portfolio delivered comparable FFO growth of 2.5% and positive leasing spreads of 2.8%, representing 7 consecutive half-year periods of positive leasing spreads. The portfolio is benefiting from a high weighting to essentials-based shopping, while the discretionary spend in categories such as apparel, jewelry and homewares is stabilizing with growth during the period. Occupancy remains high at over 99% and we have completed more than 200 leasing transactions during the period. The portfolio continues to trade well with specialty sales averaging $10,700 a meter, which is above benchmark, and our occupancy cost ratio of 15.4% is considered sustainable. A growing component within the IM platform is our Communities Rental Income, which is comprised of established LLC assets and an emerging portfolio of childcare and medical centers located within our Masterplanned communities. The assets deliver stable, long-term earnings and an attractive development pipeline, underpinning future growth. The portfolio delivered comparable FFO growth of 4% over the half. Moving on to valuations, 34% of the Investment Management portfolio was independently revalued during the half, with a $79 million increase on the 30th June 2024 book value. This reflects a strong uplift in rental growth for the Logistics portfolio and continued resilience from Town Centres, partly offset by soft market conditions and repositioning across Workplace. Consistent with our strategy, we have welcomed 2 new partnerships in the Logistics sector, M&G Real Estate and KKR. The Stockland M&G Asia Partnership Trust is a 50/50 core partnership seeded by Ingleburn Logistics Park, with an initial gross asset value of $415 million. The Stockland Logistics Partnership Trust is a core-plus style partnership with KKR, comprising of 3 assets with an initial gross asset value of $388 million. The formation of these partnerships with leading global capital partners further delivers on Stockland's strategy to scale our capital partnerships across each of our real estate sectors. We now have 7 partnerships across Workplace, MPC, LLC and Logistics. Noting the strength of our existing portfolio and development pipeline, we are confident that we'll be able to offer further opportunities to partner across all sectors in the future. Overall, the Investment Management business continues to deliver sustainable earnings from a diversified base of assets and new income streams, with future growth opportunities within our exceptional development pipeline and long-term partnerships. Thank you. I'll now hand to Andrew.

Thanks, Kylie and good morning, everyone. We've continued to make good progress right across our development pipeline and are well positioned to drive growth through disciplined delivery. We're particularly pleased by the strong growth in contribution this half from our Land Lease development business and Development Management Fee income as we continue to execute on our strategy of increasing project activation and expanding capital partnerships. FFO result for the MPC business reflects the material skew to the second half that we highlighted in December. We currently have around $500 million of Logistics development under construction and we're actively pre-leasing near-term projects to support the ongoing delivery of our pipeline. We saw good tenant demand for well-located new Logistics product over the half, leasing around 200,000 square meters at current and future projects. Turning to MPC, we delivered just under 2,000 settlements in the half with the bulk of our FY '25 settlements from our existing portfolio scheduled for the second half. And the 12 newly acquired communities only making a small contribution to this half. Our development margin reflects a higher portion of settlements from WA and relatively lower settlement volumes. We expect the margin to be in the low 20% range for the full year. Importantly, we have good visibility into the second half with almost 5,800 contracts on hand at an average price approximately 15% above first half settlement pricing. For the full year, we continue to target between 6,200 and 6,700 settlements. Our quarterly sales rates have been broadly steady over the last 12 months. Outside of Victoria, market conditions have been strong. We've seen double-digit price growth in Queensland and WA and good demand for our product in New South Wales, notwithstanding affordability constraints. Recent releases across the MPC business have been met with good customer take-up and price growth from the acquired MPC portfolio has tracked ahead of our acquisition assumptions. As we've been setting up our MPC business for a step change in production rates, we're heavily focused on optimizing our marketing strategies, targeting communities where we have product available and adjusting our marketing channels to maximize conversion. This has resulted in a reduction in absolute inquiry levels but an increase in conversion rates. In the year ahead, we expect residential market fundamentals to remain positive and this is forecast to drive increased demand. In New South Wales, pent-up demand and monetary easing will drive a volume recovery with affordability headwinds limiting price growth. After underperforming other east coast markets, we expect Victoria to rebound on the back of relative affordability and first homeowner demand. Volumes in Queensland and WA to remain around current levels given supply constraints with further price growth driven by positive buyer sentiment. On to our Land Lease business. We delivered another strong performance from Land Lease this half, with settlement volumes up materially as we scale up the business towards our medium-term target of 1,000 settlements per annum. Land Lease FFO also benefited from the expansion of our capital partnering platform, generating cash-backed profit from the transfer of additional sites into the new partnership with Invesco. We have good earnings visibility into the second half with 376 contracts on hand at an average price slightly above first half settlements. For the full year, we now expect to complete around 600 Land Lease settlements. This primarily reflects weather-related construction delays in Queensland and lower sales in Victoria. During the half, we saw continued demand for our Land Lease product and further price growth on new releases. The launch of Edgebrook in Queensland during the half was well received and came on the back of a positive response to the expansion of our platform into NSW and WA over the past 12 months. We're on track to launch a further 4 communities in the strong Queensland and WA markets before the end of the financial year. Moving on to Commercial Development. We continue to progress the delivery of our pipeline. In addition to the $500 million of Logistics under construction, we're also currently delivering around $230 million of neighborhood retail town centers and 9 childcare centers across our MPC portfolio. Delivering retail and community real estate provides essential amenity to our communities, high-quality rental income for our investment management portfolio and future product for partnering opportunities. As Tarun mentioned, we've now secured power for over 100 megawatts of data center development at MPark Stage 2 and we're exploring additional data center opportunities across the Sydney and Melbourne Logistics portfolio. So in summary, we're pleased with the resilient performance of the Development segment and have positioned the business to deliver sustainable growth across our entire development pipeline. I'll hand back to Tarun to close.

Thank you, Andrew. We have delivered another strong operational and financial result, notwithstanding a more material skew to the second half than usual. We are pleased with how we have executed on our strategic priorities and we are excited by the growth opportunities ahead of us. We're actively reweighting our portfolio towards sectors with structural and cyclical tailwinds and those most favored by investors, residential and logistics. Our MPC business is seeing strong customer demand across most markets and is well-placed to respond to an anticipated recovery in the Victorian market. Our Land Lease business is now also a material contributor to growth and by activating more projects across our expanded residential pipeline, we are driving stronger volumes in both MPC and Land Lease. Our growing capital partnership platform and the quality and diversity of our Investment Management portfolio is evidenced by its continued strong operational and financial performance. We are converting our commercial development pipeline into attractive investment opportunities for us and our partners and have identified additional growth options in the Data Centre sector. We will remain disciplined and active in managing our capital settings, supporting the next phase of our growth while maintaining a prudent balance sheet position. We are maintaining our FY '25 FFO guidance of between $0.33 and $0.34 per security on a post-tax basis and we expect the FY '25 distribution per security to be around 75% of post-tax FFO. So we'll now open the lines for questions and answers.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Tom Bodor at UBS.

Tarun, I'd just be interested given today's events in sort of your data center strategy and how you think about funding it. Would you commence projects without a lease in place and would you consider turnkey developments?

Yes, Tom. So yes, we've -- as you know, we've done a data center already, 32 megawatts at MPark. It's operating, it's in partnership with Ivanhoe Cambridge. So we're building on that experience with the announcement we're making about the extra capacity now at MPark Stage 2. In terms of your questions on, what we do in terms of the risk reward going forward, the Stage 1 we did a soft shell, but looking forward we are exploring mechanical -- MEP and including turnkey, but that would only be potentially done in partnership with operators. We know what we're good at, which is the real estate delivery on the risk reward, but beyond that, we would look to partner if we went down that path. All those things we are currently working through and we will share more details on the strategy in due course, but we thought it was important to show you the power we had secured. In terms of capital allocation, this sits within our Logistics portfolio, the opportunities. As you know, our capital allocation is up to 50% to Logistics and Workplace and that is where we would look to recycle capital into partnerships like we've just done to fund this growth. The data center at MPark, we've just got zoning. We think it's going to take us 12 to 24 months to get the DA in place and then of course user discussions and also capital partner discussions. So we'll come back with more details as that progresses.

On the Logistics partnerships, I'd be interested if there's anything to be aware of in terms of how profit recognition will work on those partnerships.

The investment assets we're selling, so there's no particular profit on sale in terms of FFO, but there is -- we've sold them slightly better than our build-up book value. So there'll be just some NTA changes coming through. But this is about, as we flagged before, our desire to have partners in Logistics to come alongside us on the expansion of our portfolio. And we're really pleased to have 2 globally recognized capital partners. So there's no contribution to FFO per se, except for the management fees that we'll derive over time.

Our next question comes from Richard Jones at JPMorgan.

Just wondering, Andrew, if you can just walk us through the margin in MPC in the first half and just how the second half changes with greater volume?

Yes, sure, Richard. So the margin in the first half was impacted primarily from 2 factors. The first and probably the most material was mix. And that's mix as in we've settled more particularly from WA, which has been a lower margin portfolio historically, but also more lower margin superlots. So they both have impacted mix. We see that normalizing in the second half to still be driving this margin in the low 20s. And then the other has just been the fixed project costs that we incur have been amortized over a lower volume of lot settlements that will also normalize in the second half.

That's helpful. And just further color on, I know you called out high cancellation rates in the first quarter on the kind of follow through on Victoria second half last year settlements. Just what happened in Q2 -- yes, Q2 I should say on cancellation rates and default rates?

Yes, so there's a couple of things to note there, Richard. Through Q2, we did see better settlement performance in Victoria. And when we're talking better settlement performance, the time between calling for settlements and then the profile of settling out of the stages, customers were quicker in settling. So yes, finance in place, ready to go in a shorter period of time. So we saw really a shortening of that period, which was good. Cancellation rates, default rates still remain above long-term averages, but below the peak that we saw from the second half. So we've seen some incremental improvement. Yes, the other thing to call out, to start this quarter, we've seen an increase in inquiry in Victoria, and some improvement in conversion. So yes, there has been a better response to our January marketing campaign. There's still rebates out there in the marketplace, but we have seen some improvement, and we'll be continuing to monitor that Victorian market.

So those cancellation default rate comments are exclusive to Victoria, though?

Yes, across the rest of the country, Richard, we've seen it, yes, particularly the cancellation rate, continue to fall.

And then just a final question. Sorry, Andrew, just on Land Lease, I think it looks like there's $60 million of revenue booked on the sale of the 4 sites to Invesco. Can you clarify how much profit comes out of that, and the impact that had on the margin for Land Lease development?

Yes, so the profit from transfer of sites into the partnerships, yes, we've indicated that's going to be less than last year. So yes, there's about around $10 million for this half that we've recognized. Impact on margin, I'll have to come back to you on that one, Richard.

Excluded that from the margin calc now, so...

Alison just clarified that we excluded that from the margin calculation that you see in the deck.

Yes, it shouldn't have an impact on the margin, Richard.

Our next question comes from Suraj Nebhani from Citigroup.

It's a couple of quick ones. So firstly, on the capital partnership side, good to see you guys have made some progress there. Can you talk to -- I guess, what other opportunities are out there? And which sectors are you looking to capital partner in?

Yes, Suraj. Thanks for the question. We are obviously now sitting across 4 of our sectors with capital partnerships. We're still seeing good demand on the Logistics front. And that's really come about with the 2 that we've just announced today. I would say that there is likely more interest in the retail sector. Although, we'll just continue to talk to capital partners about our existing portfolio, and then the pipeline that Andrew mentioned. But that's really where we're still seeing the strongest demand coming in those Logistics and living sectors from capital partners at this point.

And if I can just build on that, Suraj, we've been consistently saying that we would want each of our operating sectors to align capital partners who provide funding and ability to scale and recycle capital and improve the quality of our portfolio. So having 4 sectors with partners is great. Retail, and then beyond that, mixed use, the apartments pipeline we're developing, they are the things we'll work on in coming periods. But yes, very pleased with the 2 that we've announced today.

And just on the cash flow side, one question for Alison. I noted that the cash flow was obviously negative, as you called out, Alison. Can you just, I guess, help build a bridge to how you think about the second half there? And maybe even looking forward beyond FY '25, is there much in the way of land acquisitions or timing differences we need to worry about?

Sure. Yes, I can do that. So for second half of this year, we expect a similar level of development expenditure in second half, but obviously, we're going to get more than double the settlement receipts. And so you're going to see a much more improved operating cash flow. Land payments will be a little bit higher, but like I said, that more than double the settlement receipts is really going to improve cash flow. There's a couple of other things in regards to the second half. Obviously, we're going to continue to progress our Commercial Development projects, so there'll be some DevEx there. We also made the final equity contribution for the MPC partnership with Supalai. So that cash has gone out. And we have also contracted some disposal proceeds relating to the new partnership with KKR, and then also another logistics disposal. So we'll get about another $350 million in combined from those 2 in the second half. So hopefully, that helps. As regards future years, I mean, as you know, we can't really give you guidance on that. I would say, obviously, if we can bring the second half skew in coming years, that'll kind of balance out cash flow, but it'll be broadly similar to where we are. And obviously, always aiming for positive cash for a full year. That's probably all I can say.

And maybe on the -- I guess, on the resi side, just one for Andrew. Andrew, you pulled out rebates in place. Can you talk to how they've changed in recent months? And is your expectation that rebates start to come off as rates are reducing?

Yes, sure. So we're not deploying rebates outside of Victoria. So yes, the rest of the country, yes, WA and Queensland have been strong markets where if we could produce more, we'd be able to settle more. And New South Wales has been really consistent on the back of the undersupply. In Victoria, yes, rebates have been sitting for a while at sort of $20,000 to $40,000 per lot. And then you're getting some incentives from builders as well. So that's where you're seeing the buildup of rebates. The way we have been deploying them, it's really only been on completed or near completed stock. So where we're selling out in FY '26, there's no rebating. What we have seen change in buyer behavior, we ran a similar campaign November last year, and got very little take up. Whereas to start this year, we've seen some more urgency from buyers to take advantage of the opportunity ahead of a perceived recovery in that market, which is good. Yes, what would we expect? Yes, as the market improves, you traditionally see those rebates removed from the market pretty quickly.

And finally, on the resi margin, it's been around that low 20% mark, I guess, for the or likely to be for the second year. Where do you see that medium-term, Andrew? And like, is it just the mix primarily that takes to an improvement in margin? Or is it pricing? Or what may be the factors to see improvement medium-term?

Yes, so the mix does impact the margin period on period. But you've also got to take into account the performance, particularly from a price perspective of the broader market. And what we've seen in the last 12 months is strong double digit price growth in -- particularly in South East Queensland and WA, given the skew back towards the South East Queensland market with the acquisition of the Land Lease portfolio, that has the potential to be beneficial to margin over time, given our whole of life accounting policies. So it's both mix and broader market performance that's going to dictate where our margin heads over time.

The next question that comes from Callum Bramah at Macquarie.

Just a couple. So firstly, just around preservation of capital and how you're positioning the business. So the payout ratio is the low end of the range. You've got the DRP on. Talk about, I guess, a lot of growth opportunities. Should we expect that you continue to pay out at low end, or is there just a short-term driver for that? That would be my first.

Sure. Let me talk to that. And maybe just starting with a little bit of that. So you're right, capital sources for us the last 3 years, we've recycled capital, we've grown our capital partnerships. Those are really our primary funding sources, obviously, for the future growth that we've outlined. You're right. We have balance sheet capacity, we've activated the DRP, and I guess we're kind of fully funded from all that source. You're right. If you look back over the last decade, our payout ratio has actually averaged 76%. So we've, for the last 10 years, been very much at the bottom. And I think what we're detailing today is that we have a number of attractive capital deployment opportunities in front of us. And given that, we're highlighting that the payout ratio will be around the low end of the range. Now obviously, should those attractive deployment opportunities continue, it's likely that we will be, yes, at the lower end, I would say.

And then just 2 other ones. So one is just on the capital partnerships. Can you just give us an idea -- so from a fee perspective, are they getting [ I&P ]? And is there a performance fee component? And are they geared? And was there a capital commitment beyond the original investments that were for both M&G and KKR as well?

Sure, yes, I can take that one. So the structure of the capital partnership, so the KKR, or so let's start with the M&G partnership. So that is a single asset partnership, and it has no gearing on, so that's the Ingleburn Logistics Trust, a single asset Ingleburn Logistics. And the second partnership has some leverage on it, it's sitting at 45%. We are receiving the normal fee on that Callum. I can't go into details on that. And both the capital partners, we will talk to about opportunities in the future, but there's no sort of set structure of defined new capital placement coming in.

And then just maybe my last one would just be around going back to residential. Just trying to understand, so what -- when looking for the second half settlement guidance, what portion of that is reliant on sale and settlement of completed projects in the half, as opposed to say, contracts on hand, the projects that are expected to be completed in the second half, if that makes sense?

Yes, Callum, we're well sold for the second half with the 5,800 contracts on hand. We'll still continue to make a portion of settlements between now and traditionally, end of March, we make some into April and May that are cash buyers, but by the end of the March, we would expect to be oversold for that portfolio. So when you think about that second half skew, the material increase in that skew has really been driven by the timing of the completion of the Land Lease acquisition for this period. What gives us confidence in settling that volume in the second half? And I'd point to a couple of factors. Sales well progressed, so we would expect to build up to around 110% oversold for the period, which gives us, similar to last year, a buffer for pushouts and defaults. The second element, from a production perspective, we've had a good start to the calendar year. So it's been reasonably dry across the eastern seaboard, which has let us get ahead with production. That means that as we sit here today, we're forecasting somewhere between 20% and 30% less settlements in Q4. So our settlement profile is better than it was last year. And then we're still carrying around that $10,000 rebate per lot to incentivize buyers if required. So it's sort of those 3 elements combined that give us confidence in settling that volume over the next half.

Our next question is from Lauren Berry at Morgan Stanley.

Just another one on the Logistics partnership. I mean, one has been called out as core plus. Is there any appetite from your partners to do industrial development? So is this more about stabilized assets?

Yes, thanks, Lauren. Look, at the moment, that partnership is 3 assets. One of those assets has a -- is a small development project. There's potential -- we'll talk to our capital partners across the board about potential opportunities. So I would say that's something that we'll engage with them on. And there's potential that they'll participate in our development pipeline.

So Lauren, just both M&G and KKR, as you know, are international, diversified, big platform fund managers. So the mandates we've got into initially, both are open-ended, one's core plus, but they have broader mandates. They have specific mandates that may want to invest with us on our development pipeline. They are the conversations we'll have in the future. As you know, the first deal is always the most important to strike the relationship. And then as you've seen, in Invesco expanding the partnership, the intention for both parties, all the parties is that given the amount of growth we have in our portfolio, we're very attractive in that sense to offer them future opportunities as we get closer to realizing them. So everything going to plan, the partners want to grow with us.

And then on resi, you've called out a couple of times in the presentation about step change, a higher production rate, more active projects versus 6, 12 months ago. But you were able to put a couple of numbers around what that actually means for production rate in terms of lots and settlements annually going forward. Like, is FY '25 the step change you're talking about or is there potential for more step change in outer years, please?

Yes, so Lauren, I think what we're setting the business up to do is take advantage of market tailwinds as they emerge. What does that mean? With regards to active projects now, over the half, with the 2 that we've launched, plus the 12 we've acquired, we've got 14 additional projects from which we can drive settlements from. That's -- as we reach that sort of 2,500 plus from the acquired portfolio, plus the settlements we're going to get from our existing portfolio, you're going to see that step change in settlements in future years. So it's more an impact for '26 and beyond. It's taking us a period of time now that we've got the Land Lease portfolio in December to ramp up production to a level that is meeting underlying demand. As I mentioned, particularly in South East Queensland, WA, we could settle more if we were able to deliver more this period. So we're going through that process at the moment. Also, as you know, we've got the flexibility within the MPC portfolio that we can adjust production if we don't see that demand coming. So that's how we manage our capital through this period to be able to leverage it quickly. And similar to LLC, within the acquired portfolio, we see that 2,500 plus potential Land Lease home sites, and we'll be looking to bring forward those and put them into production as well to accelerate towards that medium-term target of 1,000 LLC per annum as well.

And just a final one. Previous years, you've given us a bit of an indication about what percentage of your settlements would fall in June or in May. Do you have those kind of numbers for this year?

What I can say is that when you look at it compared to last year, I don't have the exact numbers on hand, Lauren, but we're 20% to 30% below that number, even given that our forecast is above last year being 62% to 67%. So we're going to -- you're going to see more settlements in this quarter, and we'll be able to update you more as we get through the quarter.

And Lauren, just what the team has been able to do, we've been very focused on it. Post-COVID, supply chains, the programs blew out. Now we're tracking this financially about 2 months on average shorter duration, which means the peak that was in June -- last financial year, the peak is actually, as Andrew said, April, May. So the June is beyond the peak, which gives us, obviously, that's a better scenario for second half skew than we had last year.

Our next caller is Rebecca Parker from Bank of America.

I was just wondering on your Land Lease Communities business, are you -- what's, I guess, the guidance in terms of where you see margins going into the future, just given you are ramping up to that 1,000 settlement lot range and maybe a time frame for that goal as well? And maybe some color as well on the reduction in the FY '25 settlement guidance.

Yes, sure. So when we think about volumes in the future, the way we think about it is when a community reaches maturity, we tend to deliver 60 to 90 settlements per annum out of an individual community. We're now trading from 15 active communities now that we've expanded our platform into 4 states. So you can see a pathway there. When at full production, you would achieve that medium-term target. And when we talk medium-term, yes, we're thinking over the next 2 to 3 years. And it's going to be dependent on market conditions. What we do see in the trading performance of those communities is you get the early adopters with the launch, and then you get a period of lower sales until you reach some amenity on the ground, so display product and community facilities. And then we see a step change in sales velocity from that point. We're reaching that point now with the 4 projects that we've got in Victoria. And that's been one of the factors that's impacted lower sales there. But it's also been the market, people's ability to sell their home to be able to settle. That's been one of the factors that's impacted us going from 650 to around 600 this year. But when you think about that across 4 active projects, it's really only 4 to 5 settlements per project. And it's been that in combination with some weather through October, November, December in South East Queensland, that's also pushed out some settlements in that state into the following year as well. That's meant that we think we'll now land around that 600.

And maybe if you could comment on any construction constraints you're seeing, particularly in regard to labor across the different states?

Yes, we actually are seeing an improvement in availability of labor. And the 2 tightest states have been WA, being a smaller market, you get a demand response and that labor market tightens up pretty quickly, and then South East Queensland. So we're starting to see that improvement in labor availability, and that's flowing through to cost escalation. We've got a small construction business in South East Queensland that focuses on our land lease construction. And there, yes, we get pretty good visibility to cost escalation. Over the last 12 months in South East Queensland, that sat at about 2.1%. Third-party builders more in the 5% range. But yes, you're seeing that moderating back towards long-term norms. And we would expect this year it would track closer to inflation.

Our next question is from James Druce at CLSA.

Just following up on, I think it's Callum's question. I just wanted to check something. So you're not assuming any pick up in the run rate of MPC sales from first half to second half, correct? And also, which geographies at the moment do you have the most titled stock?

Yes, thanks, James. So to land FY '25 within our forecast, we're not anticipating, we don't need a pick up to achieve that. You would have seen from our market outlook slide that, yes, we are forecasting that you will see a pick up with some of the market tailwinds that you're seeing across the country. Yes, Victoria is going to do 6,000 to 7,000 total vacant land sales, or did do for the '24 calendar year. Yes, we would expect that to trend towards more normalized levels based on population growth and the long-term averages above 15,000 over time. So yes, that's how we're thinking about volumes. And with regards to titled stock, the most stock has been in Victoria. We have seen, as I mentioned, this year a greater response from retail buyers, but also greater demand from some of the better capitalized larger home builders looking to secure stock ahead of what they also think are going to be improving market conditions.

There are no further questions. I'll now hand back to Tarun for closing remarks.

Thanks everyone for joining and for your questions. That's it from the team here. We look forward to talking to you as we commence our roadshow. So see you shortly. Thank you.

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