Strabag SE (STR) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

April 30, 2021

Vienna Stock Exchange AT Industrials Construction and Engineering earnings 49 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Thomas Birtel

executive
#1

Thank you very much for the kind introduction. A warm welcome also from my side. Thank you very much for your interest in STRABAG's 2020 figures and the update on the outlook for the current year. I trust that you have our presentation in front of you, and I would like to start with Page #3, giving an overview over the key figures for the past 5 years. We see the developments of 2020 as a confirmation of our strategy. Diversification and regionality have helped us balance out the very different effects of the coronavirus crisis in our core markets, especially in Europe. The STRABAG SE Group recorded a slightly smaller decline in output overall in the 2020 financial year than had been forecasted initially. At EUR 15.4 billion, the output volume was 7% below the level of 2019. As you might recall, in spring 2020, we had expected a reduction of about 15% still. Our order backlog as at December 31, 2020 grew to EUR 18.4 billion, which is a plus of 5%. And as I may add, an all-time high again. The figures show that extraordinary times can also deliver extraordinary results. Our earnings before interest and taxes, EBIT, the most important financial indicator for us managed to grow by 5% above the previous year's level to reach EUR 630.65 million in 2020. In combination with the decline in output, this results in a considerably higher EBIT margin than previously anticipated, amounting to 4.3%. Also, the EBIT figure is an all-time high. In the previous year, our shareholders gave priority to the principle of prudence, a view of the uncertain development of the economic environment and agreed to reduce the dividend to EUR 0.90 per share. The liquidity condition, which was also imposed by the AGM was safely fulfilled as of October 31, 2020, so that the payment could be made in November. Although an end to the pandemic still cannot be reliably predicted, we nevertheless believe that all the conditions are in place for our shareholders to participate in the positive financial figures. The management Board of Starbuck, therefore, proposes to the Annual General Meeting on 18th June 2021, a dividend of EUR 1.9 per share, the highest level since our IPO in 2007. The payout ratio thus comes to 49%, which is at the upper end of the range of 30% to 50% of net income after minorities as defined by our dividend policy. I now come to more explanations about the output development, which is shown on Page 4 of our presentation. At EUR 15.4 billion, the output volume was 7% below the level of 2019. And negative expect was exerted by the following previously reported factors. The loss of a key German account in property and facility services resulting from an expired contract in mid-2019. The performance and completion of tunneling project in Chile and of course, the temporary suspension of construction activity due to the coronavirus crisis in Austria. Other important core markets, such as Poland and the Czech Republic, were able to record an increase in output volume due to uninterrupted construction site operations. We didn't see any major interruptions of site construction operations in our European core countries, except of Austria. I now come to the order backlog. The overview is given on Chart #5. It grew to EUR 18.4 billion, which is plus 5% despite the crisis. While declines were registered in Austria, Poland and Hungary, strong growth was recorded in Germany, especially in transportation infrastructures. In September, for example, the PPP contract for the A49 Motorway project started. The Smíchov City urban development project in Prague, Czech Republic contributed to an increase in the order backlog in this country. In Slovakia, meanwhile, the group landed a major railway construction project. Significant drivers of growth were also 2 very large-scale projects in Great Britain. Major international products, including a series of flood control dams in Oman, also added to the order volumes. Let's now come to the EBITDA and EBIT figures in detail, given on Chart #6. In total, our EBITDA increased by 5% to EUR 1.2 billion, again topping the EUR 1 billion mark for the second time. The EBITDA margin grew from 7.1% to 8.0% in 2020. Depreciation and amortization expense was EUR 33 million higher at EUR 543.8 million as a result of the high investments in previous years. Our EBIT increased also by 5% to EUR 630.65 million, which corresponds to an EBIT margin of 4.3% after 3.8% in 2019. This development can be attributed to a combination of many positive factors, particularly in the transportation infrastructures business in our core markets, which outweighed the COVID-19-related burdens on earnings. Earnings growth was achieved in our North and West and our South and East segment. I now come to Chart #7. Our net interest income improved by almost EUR 5 million to minus EUR 21 million due to the lower interest expenses for personnel-related provisions, among other things. The negative exchange rate result of minus EUR 5.35 million was comparable to that of the previous year. In the end, the earnings before taxes grew by 6%. The income tax rate remained stable year-on-year at 34.6%. The net income amounted to EUR 399 million, an increase again of 5% compared to 2019. The earnings owed to minority shareholders amounted to EUR 3.85 million only after EUR 6.86 million in the previous year. Our net income after minorities as shown here in the chart for 2020, thus stood at EUR 395 million, an increase of plus 6%. The earnings per share also given on the slide amounted to EUR 3.85 per share compared to EUR 3.62 in 2019. Let's come to our cash figures. An overview is included in Chart #8. The total assets and liabilities in our balance sheet at 12.1 billion remained almost unchanged compared to 2019. Worth mentioning is the increase in cash and cash equivalents by EUR 396 million to EUR 2.9 billion, while trade receivables and contract assets declined with the output. Current financial liabilities decreased to -- due to a bond repayment in the amount of EUR 200 million. Equity reached EUR 4.1 million, exceeding the EUR 4 billion mark for the first time in our company's history, which was reflected in an increase in the equity ratio from 31.5% to 33.9% in 2020. A net cash position was reported as usual on the 31st of December 2020. As you can see from the left-hand side of the chart, this figure increased significantly to EUR 1.7 billion in the face of low financial liabilities and increased cash and cash equivalents. Reassuring factors also for the ratings agency Standard & Poor's. In October 2020, S&P again confirmed our investment-grade rating BBB. This outlook was left at stable. S&P sees to our strengths and opportunities above all in the stable margins in an otherwise quite cyclical market environment, the strategic asset access to construction materials, our strong market positions and the high reputation in the credit markets. I now come to Chart #9. Our cash flow from operating activities improved from EUR 1.75 billion almost EUR 1.3 billion as a result of a higher cash flow from earnings and a higher reduction in working capital compared to the previous year. The expectation of a significant reduction in advance payments in 2020 and a concomitant increase in working capital to familiar levels once again failed to materialize. The cash flow from interesting activities was less negative, mainly due to the significantly lower investments in intangible assets and property, plant and equipment. Due to the COVID-19 crisis, investments were temporarily suspended in Spring 2020 as a precautionary measure. The cash flow from financing activities showed a value of minus EUR 496 million after minus EUR 412 million in the previous year. This increase is due to a bond repayment with a higher volume than in the previous year as well as the payment of retained dividends to our core shareholders period. Repayments of bank borrowings by contrast were down. We now have a look at Chart #10. This chart shows that the high cash inflows are always registered in the second half of any fiscal year. The second half of 2017 was the record year, and we expected that the high working capital inflows would reverse over time. The expectation of a significant reduction in advanced payments and a concomitant increase in working capital, as mentioned before, has not yet materialized in 2020. Let's come to our investments, Chart #11. As usual, we are able to post a positive free cash flow. Due to reduced investments, the value increased to EUR 930 million. We had forecast net investments, cash flow from investing activities of less than EUR 450 million for the 2020 financial year. In the end, they amounted only to EUR 350 million, as you can see from the left-hand side chart on that page. The gross investments, CapEx before subtraction of proceeds from asset disposals stood at EUR 497 million. This figure includes expenditures on intangible assets and on property, plant and equipment not including the noncash additions to right-of-use assets of EUR 451 million. The purchase of financial assets in the amount of EUR 40 million and almost EUR 6 million from changes to the scope of consolidation. Due to COVID-19, investments were temporarily suspended in spring 2020 as a precautionary measure, as I mentioned before. Most of the maintenance investments were made in the core markets of Germany, Poland and Austria as well as in Serbia. Expenditures on intangible assets and property, plant and equipment during the year and the report must be seen against the depreciation and amortization expense in the amount of EUR 543 million. At EUR 4.5 million, goodwill impairment was higher than the previous year, but still on a very low levels. We now come to some key indicators with regard to the different segments. This is on Chart #12. The North and West segment executes construction services of nearly any kind in size with a focus on Germany, Poland, the Benelux countries and Scandinavia. Ground engineering can also be found on this segment whose key figures are given on Chart #12. The segment recorded a 3% downput -- downturn, sorry, in output volume to EUR 7.9 billion in 2020. In Germany, which is the largest market of the segment but also of the whole group, the growth in transportation infrastructures could not quite compensate for the decline in building construction and civil engineering. Construction output also declined in Sweden and the Benelux countries, but increased by 10% in Poland. The EBIT of the segment, on the other hand, grew by 31% and to EUR 406 million. This development was mainly due to the increased earnings in Germany, both in transportation infrastructures, which benefited from the favorable weather throughout the year as well as in building construction and civil engineering. The EBIT margin of North and West reached an exceptional level of 5.4%, which we have never seen before. The already very high level of the order backlog of North and West was increased by a further 4% as of 31st December 2020, mainly due to strong growth in Germany. It now amounts to almost EUR 9.2 billion. The largest projects acquired in 2020 include the already mentioned A49 motorway concession project in south and -- in the south of Germany and the widening of the host at Marsh Motorway in Hamburg, which is the longest motorway bridge in Germany. This was contrasted by the progression of work on large projects in Poland and Northern Europe. I now come to our second biggest operational segment on Page #13, which is South and East. The geographic focus of the South and East segment of STRABAG is in Austria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Southeast Europe, Russia and Switzerland. The environmental technology activities are also handled within this segment. The output volume, as you can see on the slide, fell by 6% to EUR 4.6 billion in 2020. This decline was particularly sharp in the home market of Austria where construction site activities had to be suspended for more than 10 days in March due to a strict lockdown and also depending on a reduction in Hungary. By contrast, an increase was recorded in the Czech Republic among other countries of the segment. The EBIT, on the other hand, jumped by 45% to EUR 176 million, resulting in an EBIT margin of 3.8%. The earnings improvement is due, among other things, to the absence of special charges, which had been in existence in 2019. Apart from Austria, there were hardly any COVID-related reductions in the segment's markets. The overall backlog of South and East decreased very slightly by just 1% to EUR 4.4 billion. In Hungary, the contraction of the construction -- in Hungary, the construction of the construction industry also had a correspondingly negative impact on STRABAG's order backlog. While in the Czech Republic and Slovakia, a new urban development project in Prague and a major railroad construction project in Slovakia resulted in a strong increase in the order backlog for the 2 countries. A slight decline was observed in Austria, while the other markets in Southern and Eastern Europe showed very different developments. We now come to the smallest and traditionally most volatile segment of STRABAG, which is international and special divisions shown on Chart #14. This STRABAG division includes, on the one hand, the field of tunneling. The concession business, on the other hand, represents a further important area with global project development activities in transportation infrastructures in particular. Regardless of where the services are rendered, the construction materials business, including the company's dense network of production plants, but with the exception of asphalt also belongs to the segment. The real estate business, which stretches from project development and planning to construction and operation and also includes the Property and Facility Services business completes the wide range of services in this segment. Additionally, most of the services in non-European markets are also bundled in International and Special Divisions. The segment generated an output volume of EUR 2.8 million in 2020, which is a decline of 19%. This is mainly due to 2 factors: the loss of a key client in the property and facility services business in Germany in the middle of the previous year, as I mentioned already before; and the COVID-19-related restrictions on large tunneling projects in Chile and South America. The EBIT decline was even more drastic at minus 71% to EUR 54 million, which is -- which with the corresponding EBIT margin of only 2%. The main reason for this development were the international markets, which means the non-European markets, including Chile, the Middle East and Singapore, which were all hard hit by the pandemic. The order backlog on the contrary increased by 16% compared to 31st December 2019 and amounted to almost EUR 4.8 billion. As was the case last year, 2 projects in the U.K. are the main drivers behind this growth: the HS2 high-speed rail line between London and Birmingham; and the North York share poly light product in the northeast of England. Internationally, 2 flood protection dams in Oman have boosted the order backlog since autumn. There was a significant decline in Austria and the Americas here due to the completion of large projects in Chile. I would now come to a resume of my explanations with regard to the outlook for 2021. You could bring that under the motto that we are cautiously optimistic. We expect to achieve an output volume slightly above the previous year's level in the 2021 financial year. We will definitely not yet reach precrisis level in this year. This forecast, however, is strongly supported by the very high order backlog which we have. Following the extraordinary positive earnings situation in the past year, the situation should now return to normal in 2021, with an EBIT margin of slightly below 4%. This forecast already takes into account the current price increases in Building Materials. The midterm target of 4% starting from 2022 onwards seems still very much attainable. The output volume in North and West should remain at about the same level in the current financial year. The construction industry in the markets served by this segment has proved to be stable during the COVID-19 crisis so far. In the home market of Germany, for example, the high order backlog and the fact that construction activity largely remained at the same dynamic level kept the impact of the crisis to a minimum. In the South and East segment, it should be possible to stop the COVID-19-related revenue slowdown this year, so that a slight increase in output volume can be expected in 2021 as compared to 2020. In International and Special Divisions, business feels differently to the pandemic. The real estate development sees opportunities in the residential and office assets classes, whilst total and retail assets remained strongly burdened. The Property & Facility Services sector was significantly affected by the coronavirus crisis, though there are signs of a normalization in the business environment in the moment. Tunneling and international activities saw strong restrictions due to the pandemic performance of major projects, for instance, in Chile and Great Britain helped, however, in the acquisition of new projects. The construction materials business has so far experienced only minor disruptions. So this was a short resume with regards to the guidance for the current year. I thank you very much for your attention. And now I'm open for eventual questions which you might have.

Operator

operator
#2

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Markus Remis, RBI.

Markus Remis

analyst
#3

Let me start with that probably not so pleasant topic, the Austrian cartel we've got news that port has received application for a fine. Can you kind of shed some light on the status with regards to your proceedings.

Thomas Birtel

executive
#4

Well, actually, that depends very much, as you know, on the cartel authorities. But we definitely hope that also for us, the case will be settled in the course of the year, probably not in the course of the first half, but eventually, at least in the third quarter.

Markus Remis

analyst
#5

Okay. Is that more hope? Or is that kind of on some -- or is it sounded on some indications you got from the antitrust watch stock?

Thomas Birtel

executive
#6

Well, I have to be very cautious in that case, as you know. But I think it's a justified hope.

Markus Remis

analyst
#7

Okay. Very clear. Okay. Then coming to more pleasant topics. Firstly, your balance sheet. I mean, it has further improved, you've got ample liquidity, what are your plans to deploy the money also in order to create shareholder value?

Thomas Birtel

executive
#8

Yes. I think -- and this is probably also a positive side effect of the Brexit. And we have that seen already in our core market of Germany, I think we see a certain reasons of PPP projects also in Europe, which was not the case for many, many years now. But given, for instance, the considerably reduced possibility for subsidies for Brussels and the subsidies are always good for agriculture and infrastructure, we see a tendency of the CEE member states of the EU to probably compensate for that reduction in subsidized and co-finance projects the help of new PPP projects. For instance, preparation is there in Hungary, but also in Poland. And we sincerely hope that this will be a tendency to be seen in more of the EU member states in the future. And of course, we are one of the let's say, the partners for PPP projects, especially but not only limited to infrastructure -- to transportation infrastructures. And our balance sheet is definitely good for about double the amount of investment which we currently have in PPPs currently, there is equity invested of about EUR 550 million. And I could easily imagine to double that figure. And that would be a very reasonable and value-creating contribution, I think, also for our shareholders.

Markus Remis

analyst
#9

Okay. In terms of shareholder remuneration. You've kind of compensated for the higher dividend of last year. I mean what are your thoughts regarding kind of sustainably raising the dividend or the payout ratio to kind of the 50% threshold. Is that something you do you see an appeal in? Or is that nothing you would consider?

Thomas Birtel

executive
#10

I think, Mr. Remis that very much depends on the environment. In periods of uncertainty, of course, also our core shareholders, but also management tends to be more cautious. In times of increased certainty, of course, you tend to be more generous I think we have made very good experience since the IPO in 2007 to remain more or less in the middle of the range, which we have indicated in the course of the IPO, namely between 30% and 50% of our net income after minorities. And if you take the 2 years, 2020 and 2021 together, we had only 50% -- sorry, 25% in 2020, but we'll have 49% of distribution in 2021, if the AGM follows our proposal. And the average of the 2 years, again, is very much in the middle of that bracket. And I think that in the past was a reliable indication to our shareholders and also the fact that we obviously, want to make good that extraordinary reduction of the past year and this year, again, confirms the reliability of STRABAG as dividend payout.

Markus Remis

analyst
#11

Okay. Do you have any plans for your treasury shares?

Thomas Birtel

executive
#12

Well, it's a difficult question. I think basically, there are only 2 possibilities either to make use of them as an acquisition currency, but we have seen that, that was not really a perfect idea. It didn't really work out in the past. And the second possibility then is sooner or later to cancel or to abandon the treasury shares because if they don't serve to the purpose initially proposed or envisaged it really doesn't make sense to have them anymore. And as you know, that would not have any impact on our balance sheet nor on our profit and loss statement because of IFRS, we already show the reduced equity, which means 110 minus 7.4. So this is just a formality in my line.

Markus Remis

analyst
#13

Yes. Okay. Coming to the topic of cost inflation. That's my last question. You indicated that this is kind of a of a margin drag in the current year. In that sense, I would say the communication is probably a bit more conservative than that of your fellow Austrian contractor. I mean, can you talk us through about the dynamics of how much of your kind of cost base have you based and secured already? Is that kind of -- do you still see an open -- considerable open-cost positions that would squeeze margins should cost inflation continue over the course of the year.

Thomas Birtel

executive
#14

I think we can very well make a differentiation between the two large construction activities, which we have, the first one is transportation infrastructures and the second one is building construction and civil engineering. With regard to transportation infrastructure, as you know, we have a very good own raw material space. And of course, our operational units have to pay market prices. But that means that if prices increase, we will be seeing a very good result in our raw materials business. So I do not expect our transportation infrastructure business to suffer too much from the price increases, although it is true, there are very important cost factors not in our hands. And the most important one for road construction, of course, is bit human which is an ingredient for the asphalt production, which we don't have in our own network, as you have -- as you know, because we have to buy that from the refineries. So it is not fully immune. But it's quite well protected. When it comes to building construction and civil engineering, of course, on the concrete side, we have our own concrete mixing plans. But we have to buy cement and we have to buy many other equipment parts from third parties, for instance, technical installations for the buildings. And of course, they are we might be seeing further price increases. But as I pointed out before, that to a decent extent had already been considered once we updated on the margin for the current year. And this is one of the reasons why we believe the margin in 2021 will be somewhat lower than in 2020. But we do not see it so far, we do not see any substantial obstacles because of shortage on the raw material side. There is a tendency for price increases, but it's not yet a material negative impact on our business.

Markus Remis

analyst
#15

That's falling below the 3.5% margin threshold is very unlikely that this...

Thomas Birtel

executive
#16

Would astonish me very much.

Markus Remis

analyst
#17

Okay. Okay. Good. That's comforting. How long can, from your point of view, cost inflation carry on. Any idea when we will reach the peak that we already inside will go up further?

Thomas Birtel

executive
#18

I think this is even a global question because, as you know, some of the raw materials, there's also wood as the prototype being given as an example, depend on the demand in other parts of the world, especially by the U.S. and China. And of course, it all depends on the demand development in the future. If demand is normalizing in these 2 core regions, I definitely do expect a very fast normalization also of the price level for us in Europe. So this is mainly raw materials, which are not that much local as asphalt, as cement as gravel and stone.

Operator

operator
#19

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of [Josef Kalvoda ] from VAM.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#20

Congratulations for the outstanding figures. As expected, you never have disappointed actually over the last 2 years. Just a few questions. The first one will be on the Libyan case. Are you making any progress there on this EUR 100 million claim. And can you give us a better feeling about the time frame to monetize that? And how big a potential haircut could be?

Thomas Birtel

executive
#21

Thank you very much, Mr. [ Kalvoda ] for your friendly comment on our results. It is true that the Libyan case, of course, is a big one. The claim actually is EUR 70 million -- or the award by the Arbitration Board is EUR 75 million plus interest so that we come above EUR 100 million. That's true after all. But it is very difficult to predict how long it will take and to which extent we might be in a position to get a solution for that award. Of course, it would be the best to have a friendly settlement with the Libyan side. But we have to consider that it is not really easy to negotiate with the representatives because it's not always clear who is really in power in that state. And other mechanisms are very complicated. And of course, we are not the only ones who have claims against this country. So I do not really dare to make a prediction regarding the time frame nor the extent to which we will be able to use of our award. It is, of course, given that circumstances, it is by no means evaluated in our P&L statement, anything which would come in would be additional earnings.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#22

But there's no secondary market on?

Thomas Birtel

executive
#23

I'm not yet aware of such a secondary market, not yet, no, not in that case.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#24

Okay. Perfect. In terms of cost inflation, I mean, obviously, we have seen significant price increases in construction materials like steel, timber, cement, gravel. On the other hand, I mean, we also own significant assets there. On the cement side, we have this 30% venture with LafargeHolcim. And also you own a lot of queries. I'm wondering, as you have just told earlier before that to the infrastructure side, we charge market prices. What kind of extra actually expectations do you have in terms of EBIT contributions on the significantly higher resource prices?

Thomas Birtel

executive
#25

Well, that I think was already a question also being brought on the table by Mr. Remis. It is true that, to a large extent, on the infrastructures -- transportation infrastructure sites, we own the resources ourselves. And we will then, of course, also have a positive effect from the price inflation. On the other hand, of course, we will have to swallow a good part of those price increases in all our construction projects. And the question is to which extent we can convey that burden to our customers. That, of course, depends very much on the various contracts. We have contracts on the public side, the price escalation clauses are standard, which means we have to swallow a certain threshold as defined as per special indicators. But above those thresholds, we partly are entitled to get a compensation for increased prices on the material side. When it comes to private contracts, of course, the situation is different there. It depends very much on the individual situation. And I think that many, many individual private contracts do not foresee price escalation clauses, which means that we then would see that decreased margin, which we, all in all, do expect for the running year. But it's difficult to predict how long that will last the currently somewhat overheated market situation along that we lost, as I pointed out before, that also depends on the demand in other parts of the world. And I do not really see where it stands. But something is for sure, the longer the situation remains stable, even if that means it would remain stable on a high price level. Of course, the more it is possible to take that into consideration and to price it in the offering prices which you give to the market. So if the price situation remains stable but high that would also mean that the whole industry would be in a better position to cope with that.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#26

But currently, looking forward to '21, basically the positive and the negative effects are more or less evening out. They're even more or less thing?

Thomas Birtel

executive
#27

I would say there is a sort of burden and that is also the reason why we expect a slightly decreased margin as compared to the previous year.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#28

Okay. So actually, no overall, no positive effect. It's more or less a negative.

Thomas Birtel

executive
#29

No, not really. You have also to take into consideration that, of course, there were some burdens from COVID-19 in the past year, but there were also cost savings. Let me talk about traveling costs, accommodation costs, also fuel costs, the fuel, the price level for fuel for diesel, especially was already rather low before the outbreak of the pandemic, but it remained very low also in the rest of the year. And this, of course, is a very important cost factor to us. And in the meantime, of course, the prices have developed quite differently. So also cost savings, which we had from the pandemic will more or less vanish once the situation is normalizing again. So that comes on top. So all in all, we believe that, that will be a slight burden on the profitability.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#30

Okay. On the -- we have learned the net cash number, something like EUR 1.7 billion. At the end of the year, we had EUR 2.8 billion cash sitting around. I'm just wondering how much for year 2020, how much actually negative interest we had to pay on the euro, the 0.5% and on the Swiss 0.75%?

Thomas Birtel

executive
#31

Yes.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#32

Ballpark. Just ballpark. Yes.

Thomas Birtel

executive
#33

Yes. It's true that I think it was the first year last year that we couldn't avoid negative -- the interest rates anymore, which was also always sort of pride for my financial people under my CFO, Christian Harder. I'm lucky to report that for last year, it was just about EUR 1 million, which is next to nothing, given the size of our cash status. Just about EUR 1 billion...

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#34

For 2021. Okay, for '24, how much do you expect pay there because I guess banks are getting more aggressive.

Thomas Birtel

executive
#35

Yes. I'm also afraid it will be a higher figure. Of course, we always try to make use of the cash also In the course of our own business. For instance, we finance a lot of real estate development projects on our own balance sheet because we have the money. We have some equity to set in PPP projects, which is also, in my eyes, a very reasonable usage of liquidity. So well, my expectation is we, of course, given the more aggressive approach of the banks, it will be more than in 2020, but it will not really be a sealable burden for our profit situation, not more than EUR 5 million.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#36

Okay. Okay. Excellent. A final question, could you please give us an update on the capital market strategy going forward. With a specific focus on the current valuation, I mean, which is having an EV EBITDA multiple taking year-end numbers of 1.4. I've never seen that. That's to me a number like that. So I mean -- yes, I'll be looking for hearing a few comments on that.

Thomas Birtel

executive
#37

Yes, very, very difficult to predict for management, Mr. [ Kalvoda ], because, in my eyes, it very much depends on the free float of our share. And as you probably recall, my predecessor CEO and now the, let's say, the industrial leader of the core shareholder syndicate Hans Peter Haselsteiner, already 5 years ago, had developed a scenario where the free float could have been back to, let's say, 40%. And that, in my eyes, and also in the eyes of many investors, would, of course, immediately have a positive impact on the share price. But this -- the materialization of that scenario is not in the hand of the management. And as you probably know, we have seen the last prolongation of the syndicate by the end of 2017, the next prolongation period is the end of 2022. So by the middle of 2022 the core shareholders should at least have reached an agreement once they would desire to change something in the current situation. But probably it is too early to make speculations about that.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#38

But is there any other catalysts you have? I mean, I guess, you're going to stay on board for another 2 years, something like that. Is that correct or...

Thomas Birtel

executive
#39

I personally will stayed until the end of 2022. That's my contractual period.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#40

Okay. But do you think there's any other catalysts besides waiting or whatever the main shareholders are going to decide?

Thomas Birtel

executive
#41

Well, difficult to predict. I think we are sort of attractive investment for somebody who's looking at a dividend. If you have a look at the dividend, we will be proposing for the precedent year. The dividend profitability based on the average stock price for 2020 is 7.3%. This is something which might be attractive also to some other investors. But as I know, of course, there are a lot of institutional investors who would like that profitability. But due to, again, the low free float don't have the possibility to invest into the shares. So that's basically something for private investors. And again, their influence, of course, is much lower than the influence of institutional investors. So I think that's what we can do as management is to continue the good and reliable track record with regard to profitability of the company. That's what we did over the past years. That...

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#42

No. Excellent track record, excellent track record. There's no questions about that. Do you actually already have a succession plan, I mean when your term ends in '22, right?

Thomas Birtel

executive
#43

Good question, but not a good question to me, Mr. [ Kalvoda ] because that is something which will have to be decided by our Supervisory Board. And I definitely trust that they will develop the plans in due course. But given the fact that there are still almost 2 years to go. I think they still have some time to make a good decision about that. I definitely expect that would lie within the, let's say, the philosophy of STRABAG or within STRABAG's DNA that that Supervisory Board will consider an internal solution, which are very much surprised if...

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#44

You would not extend, you would not extend?

Thomas Birtel

executive
#45

That is not possible due to stipulations in our Charter Services Association because you must be below 65 years of age once you get nominated for the management Board.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#46

Okay. And by when would we know actually I mean is it kind of a cut of time, like 6 months ahead or like year ahead, who's going to...

Thomas Birtel

executive
#47

It's a good guess somewhere in the course of next year.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#48

Okay. I think it's important. You know what...

Thomas Birtel

executive
#49

I agree with you, yes. And of course, the Supervisory Board is very much aware of the fact as well as the core shareholders. And I'm very much convinced that they have a close eye on that question.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#50

Someone with a lot of experience, hopefully, I guess.

Thomas Birtel

executive
#51

Yes. Looking forward to meeting you again in person. Thank you very much. Bye-bye.

Operator

operator
#52

There are no further questions at this time. I hand back to Thomas Birtel for closing comments.

Thomas Birtel

executive
#53

Thank you very much. I still look around. But as long as there are no additional questions, I thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen, for your interest in STRABAG. Thank you very much for your attention. And I'm looking forward to talking to you again once we are publishing the trading statement in due course. Thank you. Have a nice weekend, still. Take care. Bye-bye.

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