Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) (SCAB) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, and welcome to this press conference. My name is Björn Lyngfelt, I'm Vice President, Communications for SCA, and we have today announced that SCA intends to invest in pulp production and initiates consultation to discontinued publication paper. And our President and CEO, Ulf Larsson; CFO, Toby Lawton; and President, Pulp, Kristina Enander, will present the reasoning behind this. And Ulf, please?

Thank you for that, Björn, and good morning also from my side. Most welcome to our press conference that is webcasted. So as Björn mentioned earlier here, we are holding this press conference as we earlier today announced that we, one, intend to invest SEK 1.45 billion in our industrial side at Ortviken in order to be able to produce 300,000 tonnes of CTMP pulp with an expected start-up during the first quarter 2023. Secondly, we have also announced that we intend to enter into negotiations with the union representatives on closing all 3 remaining publication paper machines at Ortviken. Our clear strategy for profitable growth contains 2 components, on 1 hand, we want to invest and work actively to increase the growth in our existing forest land. This we do by applying intensive forest management, use of fast-growing tree species, such as contorta pine and so on. On the other hand, our ambition is also to increase our forest holdings. And this we do by, among other things, our acquisition program in the Baltics with a target to own at least 100,000 hectares of forest land within this area in 5 years. The second component in our growth strategies are envisioned to increase the value of each tree, and this we achieve through strategic investments in pulp, kraftliner, renewable energy, and at the same time, as we gradually reduce and now finally take away our exposure to publication paper. This staircase I have shown you many times, which describes our decided and planned strategic investments and projects, respectively. And we are now, by coming to the decision to invest in increased pulp capacity and also, at the same time, phase out from the printing paper business, taken an important step toward the long-term improved product industrial structure and the improved profitability that brings. The reason for making this decision to leave printing paper as a product area or as follows: first, we have for a long period of time, recognize the printing paper constitutes a structurally declining market. During a number of years, we have seen consumption decreased by approximately 5% annually, and now in connection to the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, we've seen a sharper decline in demand and the momentary demand drop is rather 30% to 40% for printing paper. And I personally believe that post-corona we will see new normal established in this area on a substantially lower level. Secondly, SCA's profitability within the printing paper segment has been weak for a long period and with the lower production levels that we -- have been forced upon us in combination with reduced prices during the second half of 2020, we can say that we now have a negative cash flow within this business area. Thirdly, it's very attractive for us to invest in increased pulp capacity as the market has a good long-term growth and that is what we are aiming for. It's also a strategic growth area for SCA and to close the CTMP production at Östrand means that we later on can expand the capacity of chemical pulp at Östrand further. To convert one of the printing machines at Ortviken into production of CTMP pulp gives us an additional capacity of 200 tonnes of -- at an exceptionally low investment cost per tonne. And at the same time, we will achieve the absolute leading position in terms of cost. So this is a really profitable project to do for us. During the last 10 years, SCA has decreased its annual publication paper capacity with just over 1 million tonnes and Ortviken is our, today, last remaining site for production of printing paper. Now we will enter into negotiations with the union representatives on the closure of all 3 paper machines at Ortviken to be affected within 6 months. Just for information, today's production capacity at Ortviken is 775,000 tonnes, of which 500,000 tonnes of LWC and 275,000 tonnes of uncoated printing paper. And by this, I now hand over to Kristina Enander, who is President of Business Area Pulp at SCA. And Kristina will give you all a more detailed description of the coming CTMP investment?

Thank you, Ulf. CTMP market pulp is primarily used for improving the quality in different products to a lower production cost for the customer. In general, CTMP provides a high level of absorption capacity, bulk and stiffness to paper products making it well suited for product segments, such as tissue and packaging, but also in specialty and printing paper. As you can see here in the slide, the quality the most differ a lot between product segments. That means that different types of CTMP qualities are produced to fit each customer segment. In SCA, we have a long history of working very closely with our customers to bring quality improvements. And today, we also have a broad product portfolio, which is a prerequisite for a profitable CTMP business. In addition, we have developed birch CTMP, which is unique for SCA. This product has particularly interesting properties for board customers, which is a growing CTMP market. By using birch in the pulp production, we not only create a unique product for the customers, we also make use of the increased birch growth in our forest in valuable way. CTMP is produced today at Östrand pulp mill with a production capacity of almost 100,000 tonnes a year to compare with the NBSK production capacity over 900 (sic) [ 900,000 ] tonnes a year. With this investment, the production will be moved to Ortviken mill and the production capacity will be increased to 300 (sic) [ 300,000 ] tonnes per year. The CTMP market is 4.5 million tonnes and growing. The strength in our market plan is that it's both focused on the structurally growing end-use segments of packaging and hygiene. And at the same time, we expect a significant part of the growth to come from existing customers of SCA, customers that buy CTMP and NBSK today. Expanding our CTMP business will thus create an increased customer value by offering our customers valuable product properties at lower cost. We will continue to sell the majority of the CTMP to European customers, but we also have the intention to sell pulp to the growing broad segments in Asia and the U.S. The investment amounts to SEK 1.45 billion. That corresponds to an investment of less than SEK 5,000 per tonne, which is very competitive. The reason to the low figure is the fact that the existing equipment for TMP production in Ortviken is very well suited for CTMP production. This equipment was installed in 2009, and is thus one of the most modern and energy-efficient TMP equipments in the world. The bleaching line is state-of-the-art, which means that the bleaching cost for the pulp will be very low, and all in all, the cost per tonne will be decreased by approximately 15% versus today's level. That will position us in the top quartile regarding cost position.

Thank you, Kristina. Now I would give a summary of the expected financial effects from these 2 different steps. And firstly, here, you can see the financial effects from the exit of publication paper. You can see on the top left, we expect this to have an impact on net sales of the group of some SEK 4 billion, which is the net sales we have in publication paper annually today. Also, on the left, this decision affects some 800 people with regards to the exit from publication paper. And on the right-hand side here, you can see the one-off closure costs, which have a cash flow effect of up to SEK 0.9 billion, and we expect this decision also to require a write-down of around SEK 1.1 billion. And the write-down is broken down into fixed assets of around SEK 750 million and working capital around SEK 350 million. And we expect to take reserve for these items in the third quarter results. And in addition, there's no figure on this slide for EBIT or EBITDA, but that's because we do not expect this decision to have a material impact on operating profit or EBITDA when you compare it to the recent history on a group level. Going forward, however, if we did not take this decision, we would expect that we would have had a negative impact on profit and cash flow going forward. Okay. And then the next slide here shows the financial impacts from the CTMP investment, and as Kristina said, here, we have an investment cost of SEK 1.45 billion for this investment, which will be reported as strategic CapEx. The CTMP capacity, we have today 100,000 tonnes, as Kristina said, and we will increase to 300,000 tonnes of CTMP capacity and that will be the move then from the 100,000 tonnes today in Östrand, which will be stopped and then the 300,000 tonnes capacity will be in the Ortviken mill. And the EBITDA effect, you can see here, we expect a SEK 300 million positive EBITDA effect from this investment. And that's as a result both of the volume growth in the pulp, but also of the absolute leading cost position, which we will achieve from this investment in this product. Then you can see on the right-hand side here, we expect the start-up to be at the start of 2023 when the CTMP production will also stop in the Östrand line. And we also do expect some costs for maintaining the Ortviken site during 2021 and 2022 up until the start-up of around SEK 20 million per quarter -- the Ortviken site, maintaining the Ortviken. And then finally, this creates an opportunity then for further expansion on NBSK in Östrand once the CTMP line is stopped in Östrand. So yes, with that, I can hand back to Ulf.

Thank you, Toby. And then if we summarize what's happening now, you can state that investment in increased pulp in parallel with the winding up of the remaining printing paper capacity is a natural step in SCA's strategy and also a natural step in the evolution of SCA's product portfolio. The ambition from our side is to create long-term profitable growth, and we do so by position ourselves within clear growth area, and this is a clear step in that direction. If we start to the left-hand side, within our business segment, Forest, we will step-by-step increase the harvesting in our own core land by 25% during the coming 5 years. We have already communicated that. And this is a result of a long-term and determined work to improve the status when it comes to growth potential and also fiber quality. And the cash flow from our own Forest then will -- with this increase step-by-step by SEK 300 million to SEK 400 million per year when we are finally utilizing the full harvesting potential 2025. Within business segment, Wood. We have, during the last 10 years, half the number of sawmills and at the same time, we have increased the production volume, and during this period, the productivity has also more than doubled. With today's decision, we will leave product area printing paper entirely, while we increased the production of CTMP Pulp. And in addition, as Toby mentioned, we are preparing Östrand for continued expansion within the chemical pulp area. Last but not least, the ongoing investment that Obbola will result in a substantially increased capacity of kraftliner, and we look forward to the start-up of the new mill in the beginning of 2023. So taken together, these steps all reposition SCA with clear profitable growth in attractive market segments. So in addition, the Board have also said that they do not intend to give a dividend proposal this year given all the current circumstances. Instead, the Board intends to give their dividend proposal in the normal way together with the publication and the report for Q4 and 2020. So by that, I think that we can open up for questions.

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from line of Alexander Berglund from Bank of America.

Two questions from my side. First of all, on the expected SEK 300 million EBITDA positive impact. My question is if that assumes the current spot pulp prices or if you have any specific long-term pricing level in mind? And the second question is more strategic here on the reason to make a decision to go for CTMP pulp rather than your other growth area, kraftliner. Is it just more of a technical reason? Or is it also a reflection of your view on the current supply and demand outlook in containerboard?

Yes. If maybe you, Toby, can start with SEK 300 million.

Yes, I can take the first one. And basically, the SEK 300 million positive EBITDA impact is what we expect from what we regard as normal trend prices for CTMP pulp, which is how we how we always look at investments. So that's how we view the EBITDA impact.

Yes. And the second question, why do we invest in CTMP instead of kraftliner. It's not a choice really in Ortviken. I mean Ortviken is today a publication paper mill. And by that, you also use mechanical pulp, which is not possible to use for kraftliner production. So I mean, we do both, honestly. We have not recently, but we have started up a big project in Obbola where we invest 800 -- SEK 8 billion in order to increase capacity of kraftliner, and we really believe in kraftliner and the packaging business definitely so. CTMP is a different animal. We can utilize the equipment and the infrastructure that we have in Ortviken in a good way. And as Kristina mentioned, I mean we will have an investment cost around SEK 5,000 per tonne, which is really low cost, and we reduced the indirect cost by 15%. So that will give us a word-class position when it comes to production or CTMP. CTMP will be used for some packaging applications, but also for hygiene applications, and to some extent, also to the printing paper area. But that is obviously not our focus. So we go for packaging, hygiene, and we also will try to increase the cooperation we have with our current customer base in CTMP.

Yes. Toby, a follow-up. When you say kind of a long-term trend price, what does that mean in dollars per tonne?

We don't give that information today. I mean as of today, I think we're informing on this decision. We may be able to come back in Q3 with some -- a bit more clarity. But I think we always look at trend prices over a long period of term when we take investments. So I -- we don't have that information for you today.

Our next question comes from the line of Christian Kopfer from Nordea.

Yes. First one follow-up then. You mentioned that you will be able to potentially increase the NBSK production in Östrand when you move the CTMP to -- moving that to Ortviken. When do you expect to take that decision? And what kind of CapEx would you look at to increase NBSK in Östrand?

It's too early to say. I mean we have done some feasibility studies at Östrand. And I mean, obviously, we have invested also SEK 8 billion in Östrand, and we have the biggest mill in the world producing NBSK pulp. So it is a profitable project to go further there. But I mean now we are focused on negotiations with the union about taking away capacity in publication paper, and we've also taken the decision now to go for CTMP production in Ortviken. And by that, we can start-up project in Ortviken anytime. But I mean we -- one thing is preparation, another thing is money. So we need to find the right timing for that decision. So we will come back on that.

Your next question comes from the line of Johannes Grunselius from Kepler Cheuvreux.

It's Johannes here. Just want to follow-up also on the investment calculation. But can you -- if I start with what sort of dollar-SEK assumptions are you using and also energy cost assumption. Am I right that you're using the spot rate on the FX? First question.

Yes. I'm not going to -- I think we -- I'm not going to get into detail on all the investment assumptions. We believe taking everything into account in a 300 million normal EBITDA effect from these investments, taking into account trend prices on the product, taking into account trend prices on key input materials and energy and so on as well. So we -- so I think that's what we believe will be the impact of this investment in our bottom line.

Okay. Yes. All right. All right. But if I look at prices for the last, let's say, 5, 10 years, I get a feeling for what's sort of behind your long term assumptions, I suppose.

Yes. I think we normally look over a 15-year period to develop our trend pricing. And of course, there is some volatility in pricing of pulp. As you know, there's volatility in exchange rates. So all of that, we have to manage and come with our view of where we think that the trend level is going forward, and that's what we've done in this case as well.

Yes. And then a question on your Wood balance and your own on sourcing of Wood from your own Forest, am I right that this is not impacting the balances within SCA since you are -- or should one expect actually you're becoming -- that you will use more in Wood internally since you're increasing the Pulp capacity? Or how should one view, basically the Wood balances?

With the decision today, we will reduce the consumption of Wood for a while. And I mean, the total consumption in Ortviken today is 1.2 million cubic meter annually. And if we can find an agreement now with the union, then we have the opportunity to close down 1.2 million cubic meters of import for a while. Then we will start-up the production in CTMP in 2023. But we will use substantially -- share of the Wood that we need will come from birch, which is also good for the balance because we have an oversupply from our own forest in birch. So that is a positive thing. And then, of course, when Obbola is up and running, that will require some extra volumes in Obbola. And if and when we take the next step in Östrand, depending on the volume, that will also, of course, require some extra volumes. But for a while now, we will improve our balance, definitely. And that will also have…

Next question comes from the line of Oskar Lindstrom from Danske Bank.

First of all, I just want to say that your strategic staircase there has been very helpful since you're following it step-by-step, feels like. My first question is around the CTMP investment in Ortviken. You're not converting one of the paper machines that you have in Ortviken. Why would you not convert all of them? Or is that because the other ones are older or not as efficient? And add-on to that question is, would it be feasible to add a board machine sometime in the future to the CTMP line and sort of move into that segment? Is that possible?

I think, first -- I mean now we have taken the decision to convert one of the machines. And that will give us -- today, we produce 100,000 tonnes of CTMP at Östrand. This will -- when it's up and running, add another 200,000 tonnes in the market. The total market for CTMP today is 4.5 million cubic meters. And we will -- with this investment, we will find a really good cost position here. But I think still, we shall not challenge the market too much. And we know that there will be a -- the market in total will not find a fiber that's needed in the future. So I think CTMP will be a really good product for the coming years. But still, I think, 300,000 tonnes will be -- that's a rather big addition capacity. So we think this is the right balance. We can, of course, increase capacity further, and we can, of course, add the board machine, but still, this is not in the scope for the moment being. As I said, next step by -- I think next step for us probably will be to find a way to further expand Östrand.

Yes. I mean, you certainly have a lot of options there. Just a follow-up on this. Are you dismantling the other 2 lines at Ortviken? Or will they remain in place so that you have sort of an optionality in the future to actually increase the CTMP further if you should wish to do so?

We haven't taken that decision. I mean we can -- we -- I mean we did dismantle paper machine, too, when we closed that one back in 2015. We haven't really taken the decision yet. We now have to fulfill the negotiations and then we can decide later on.

All right. And then my second question is coming back to the wood balance. So you're today a little bit over 50% self-sufficient and at least for a couple of years now, you'll be consuming about 1 million tonnes -- 1 million cubes less, so you'd be sort of 60% self-sufficient in the coming 2 years with the closure of the Ortviken, is that correct?

Well, I can just say, I think we are a bit below -- just slightly below 50% sales sufficient today following the ramp-up of Östrand. But this will, as Ulf said, is 1.2 million cubic meters we talk about, so that will increase it by -- yes, around 10%, so -- as you mentioned. So -- and then the CTMP line will come on and that will then -- then it will have an effect from that day forward. So will improve it.

But again, what's really positive is that in the new CTMP line, we will use birch to a certain extent. So that is very positive for us because today, we have -- well, maybe not the surplus, but still we have a lot of birch available in our Forests.

Because I just did some very sort of rough calculations here this morning on this. I mean given that you're also increasing harvesting at the same time, as you'll also be ramping up expanded capacity in Obbola, and you will be starting up the new CTMP line at Ortviken, I sort of -- again, rough calculation, that you would be at about 60% of self-sufficiency in the future. So more than what you've been in the past. I mean is that a position that you like, is there sort of a strategic value in that?

I mean as you can see -- I mean it's a good thing to have a high degree of self-sufficiency. But on the other hand, you have seen the staircase. And I mean we have some projects there. And we like to continue to grow our production in pulp and so on, and that will have an impact on the wood supply, of course. But we will do that in a balanced way. I mean in many cases, the margin cost for wood is a big impact for the profitability in a project. So definitely so. And also now, short term, it will have a big positive impact that we can close down a big part of the import for the moment being. But I mean we will continue to buy wood and also forest land in the Baltics, and we will continue to develop the industry. Now we have just adapted the portfolio to growth areas, which I think is the absolute right thing to do in -- just now.

Next question comes from the line of Martin Melbye from ABG.

Could you explain a bit more about the CTMP market versus the normal NBSK market? The prices you achieve the economics and which customers can buy CTMP versus NBSK, please?

Yes. I'm not really an expert into CTMP. But I think, Kristina, she gave you some ideas on the special properties in CTMP with, not the least, with bulk and that kind of things, which is for liquid packaging board and so on. In many cases, we will sell these products to existing pulp customers both who's already purchased CTMP from us and customers who purchase kraft pulp but could use more of CTMP. And in this investment, we expect pricing volumes go to Asia, and we will also expect CTMP to become interesting new applications due to the falling supply of recovered fiber and in particular white recovered fiber. Focus areas now will be in packaging, packaging grades, but also hygiene, as mentioned. And then we have a small part already today in printing papers, but that we like to reduce as much as we can. We don't like the exposure to publication paper, neither in this area.

And say the margins in CTMP versus NBSK?

Yes. I can say so broadly, CTMP has a lower price level than NBSK. You have -- as a mechanical pulp, than you have less wood per tonne of CTMP than you do in NBSK but it has different properties, of course. SO -- but generally, you have a lower price level and the customer benefits also from the bulk of the product, which is a key property. So they get some cost benefits and different properties to NBSK. But the margin level is broadly similar.

Next question comes from the line of Markku Järvinen from Handelsbank (sic) [ Handelsbanken ].

Yes. I have a few more questions. Just to start with Östrand. I think you've said in the past that you'd like to take the capacity of the mill to 1 million tonnes with the CTMP, so 900,000 tonnes for the NBSK line, are you not talking about increasing capacity above that 900,000 on that line?

For NBSK, we don't really know the potential exactly. We have said between 100,000 and 200,000 additional capacity. And I believe that we can -- we should reach -- I mean, again, it's a combination between cost and capacity, as always. But I think that we can maybe do 200,000 tonnes more now that when we close down the CTMP production, when we take that decision. We have to do some more studies and prepare for that expansion, and in due time, I'm sure that we will do it. But again, it's a question of timing. We are now focused on negotiations with the union and also to start the project in CTMP at Ortviken.

Okay. Good. And in terms of the bottlenecks that discontinuing of BCTMP production at Östrand opens, is it sort of in bleaching or is it woodyard or what are the sort of opportunities that this creates?

Yes. I mean, we need space in Östrand. It's a narrow area. It's a big mill and narrow area, so we need space. And it was -- I mean, it's also according to the long-term strategy. We have -- we said when we started up the project in Östrand back in 2015, that 2017, the plan was to close down the CTMP production. But then we did -- they did a really good job at mill site and developed a new product portfolio not the least, including a lot of birch in CTMP. And we found another and more profitable market. And so my thinking, 2017 was that, it was a pity to close down a profitable market, and it has given us a good contribution over the years. But we have not invested in the old CTMP line because we knew already at that stage that if we, 1 day in the future, like to expand the NBSK production, then we cannot do that and also run the CTMP production at the same site. So for us, it's much more clever now to move over the CTMP production to Ortviken because there we can utilize the infrastructure, as I said, and not the least, the TMP production. I mean, that was close to SEK 1 billion investment back in 20 -- I think the integration was back in 2009. So I mean this is much more cost-efficient way to do it now.

Okay. Good. And then I appreciate that you don't want to discuss the sort of trend price level that we are seeing here. But historically, BCTMP, has it traded -- you said it has traded at a discount to softwood pulp. But has it also traded at the discount to hardwood pulp? And what sort of -- what has been the typical pricing mechanism there on the pricing dynamic in the past?

Generally, the pricing follows the same pattern as NBSK. So you follow the same cycle. And then you have a price difference of, yes, around $100 per tonne is the typical price difference between CTMP and NBSK over history. So you can see that trend. They follow the same kind of cycle.

Okay. Very good. That clarifies that. Then on the wood consumption, you said you have a surplus of birch is sort of -- is that going to fuel all of the birch that you need at the Ortviken plant in the future. It is going to be 100% birch? Does that birch come from the Swedish Forest or your Baltic Forest? And if it's not own Forest, does it can come from Baltic or the where does it come from?

I think the main part of the birch will come from our own forest in Sweden, to be honest.

Very good. And then still on the 2 lines that you are not converting at Ortviken of course, the 1 line that you're converting is going to stand there for 2 years before start-up with the investment. And the 2 lines, is it feasible to sort of maintain them beyond this planned period or it is going to be too expensive to hold on to them for some potential future use. How do you see that?

Maybe I could just clarify a bit. We have 3 paper machines in Ortviken. And then we have the pulp refiners, which supply the TMP pulp or the paper machines today. And this -- so we will be we will be using one of the paper machine lines, but the TMP is the part of the mill that we -- which is recently invested and which we will convert to CTMP pulp. So it's not as simple as saying we convert one line to -- and we keep 2 lines. It's really the TMP mill that we utilize in this investment primarily.

Sure. And how does it split SEK 1.45 billion investment?

You mean time wise? Or…

No, I mean, what are you spending bulk of the money on? I mean you have to fill a fairly substantial investments while you're using existing equipment quite a lot?

Yes. It's -- I mean, a significant part is drying capacity because rather than the pulping supplied on to paper machine wet, now it has to be dried to be packaged to serve the customers. And then there are a number of other parts around connecting the parts up, but those are a significant part.

Piping

But do I understand correctly that you are converting one of the existing paper machines to a pulp dryer and the other 2 paper machines, you haven't made decisions on?

No, that's not correct. We're having new drying units, which then dry the pulp into bales. So it's not…

Okay. So the paper machines still continue completely and there is no use for them at all.

Effectively, yes, they would not be used in the new mill, no.

Okay. Okay. And we haven't made decisions on dismantling them at this stage?

No I mean we will have to take care of them exactly how we both take and dismantle, no decisions are taken. And obviously, we have -- this is not subject to a negotiation with -- employee representatives until we reach that stage, we can't. We haven't taken a decision definitively on what will happen to them.

Next question comes from the line of Christian Kopfer from Nordea.

Yes. Just a follow-up or a follow-up. Just forwarding a question that I received from an investor. It's about the closing cost that you that you have said that will be maximum SEK 900 million. The question is that it looks quite big. And if you could break that down, if possible, why it costs so much to close it down. I understand, obviously, 800 people will be a big, call it, cost. But -- yes, if you could mention something, please.

I think, I mean, firstly, you're right. We think that's closure cost up to SEK 900 million. Obviously, this is subject to consultation and negotiations. So until we go through that process, we don't have a firm figure to give. And we expect to be able to give a further figure when we're further along the process, of course. But included in there is costs related to employees and redundancy. There's costs related to the machines and taking care of the machines and the decommissioning machines. So those are the main items, I would say, and then some costs needed to clean up and take care of the site.

If you compare it to what you have previously closed down paper machines [indiscernible] to or anything, can you compare it?

Yes. I think we see this -- I mean the one thing I could say is when you compare to other closures of paper mills and paper machines, if you were to do a benchmark per tonne or per mill and size of mill in terms of volume or number of employees, I think it's pretty much in line with what other mill closures have cost. It's probably -- it depends a bit on the country and the geography, typically. Some countries in Europe are more expensive in France or Netherlands, whereas some other countries are -- it depends on the legal environment and the environment you're in. But I think we view this as broadly in line with other mail closures, both in SCA and outside SCA.

Next question comes from the Mikael Doepel from UBS.

First of all, in terms of the paper production, sorry, if I missed this if you already commented on it. But when would you expect the publication paper production to cease at Ortviken.

Within 6 months.

Okay. And in terms of the paper machines, would you consider selling the machines for conversion to, for example, testliner, something else, if there would be such an interest in the market?

We don't have the answer yet. As Toby says, I mean, now we will finalize the negotiations with the union, and then we take the decision what to do.

Okay. And then finally, on the CapEx for the CTMP investment. How should we think about that in terms of distribution across the next couple of years?

Yes. I think we expect that investment to come in 2021, 2022 and a little bit further in 2023. So you could -- you can split it, you can say, 80% between 2021 and 2022 and the remaining part 2023, just to give a rough guidance. It's obviously subject to the negotiation process as well. So -- but that's our expectation.

There are no further questions at this time. Please continue.

Okay. Thank you for the interest you have shown in this press conference. I should mention that Kristina Enander is President Pulp and nothing else. We had a miss spelling on the website, but Pulp is her business and responsibility. We will -- we couldn't answer all your questions. We are sure to be able to shed some more light on some of the questions in our quarterly report, which will published and presented on October 30. And until then, thank you, and look forward to hearing from you again. Thank you.