Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) (SCAB) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, and welcome to this presentation of SCA's full-year results for 2024. With me here today, I have President and CEO, Ulf Larsson; and CFO, Andreas Ewertz, to go through the results and take your questions. Over to you, Ulf.

Thank you for that, Anders. And also from my side, good morning, and welcome to the presentation of SCA's results for the full year and for the fourth quarter 2024. During 2024, SCA showed that we can deliver good profitability even in a challenging environment. And despite substantially higher costs related to wood raw material, SCA reached SEK 7.1 billion on EBITDA level, and by that, an EBITDA margin of 35% for the year. During 2024, we have continued to gradually increase production in the sites where strategic investments have been made. This has resulted in higher delivery volumes in comparison to last year due to the new paper machine in Obbola and the new CTMP line at Ortviken. These investments will contribute to increased productivity and cash flow generating during upcoming years. Another factor contributing to the result and partly offsetting the higher cost of wood raw material was steady increasing harvesting from SCA on forest where we reached record high harvesting volumes in 2024, a bit over 5.2 million cubic meters. We will continue to ramp up harvesting of our own forest according to plan during coming years. The book value of SCA forest assets was in line with last year and amounted to SEK 107.3 billion at the end of 2024. And as you already know, SCA bases the valuation of the forest on complete transactions in the region where SCA owns land. Turning over to sound financial KPIs related to the full year 2024. As already said, our EBITDA reached SEK 7.1 billion for '24, which corresponds to 35% EBITDA margin. Our industrial return on capital employed came out on 7% for the full year '24 in line with last year. The leverage was at 1.5x, and we have now finalized our big strategic investments in Obbola, Ortviken and Gothenburg, which will all contribute positively in the coming years. The proposed dividend for the AGM to decide on is SEK 3 per share. This is in line with our aspiration to provide a long-term stable and increasing dividend to our shareholders. Last year, we gave SEK 2.75 per share. And finally, earnings per share was SEK 5.8 (sic) [ 5.18 ]. This slide will give you an overview of KPIs for the fourth quarter '24. Our EBITDA reached SEK 1.65 billion during the fourth quarter, which gave us an EBITDA margin of 32% for the period. Despite high costs of planned maintenance stops in the quarter of SEK 338 million. Our equity continues to increase, and despite the fulfillment of several large strategic projects, net debt-to-equity remains on a solid level of 11%. So before looking into each segment, I want to mention a few words on our capital allocation strategy. We have continuously developed our value chain by investing in superior mills and in additional production capacity of products with long-term growing demand, such as pulp, containerboard, solid wood products and renewable energy. But we have also closed our production of publication paper product with long-term decline in demand. The investments made are generating additional cash flow now and in the years ahead. The generated cash flow has allowed us to increase our forest holdings by investing in forest land in the Baltics. We have also continuously invested in forest management on our current and new holdings. And this increases net growth in the forest, which in the long run, both increases raw material supply to SCA industries and generates a higher cash flow. The investments in the forest and the value chain are creating profitable growth, which enable us to pay a long-term stable and increasing dividend to our shareholders. I will now make some comments for each segment, starting with Forest. High harvesting levels of our own forest have contributed to a stable supply of wood raw materials to our industries during the period. We have seen a continuous long-term trend of increasing prices for both pulpwood and sawlogs as can be seen also in the graph in the bottom left. When one compare Q4 '24 with the same period last year, sales were up 16%, mainly due to higher prices for pulpwood and sawlogs as well as higher delivery volumes to SCA Industries. When excluding the effect of lower revaluation of biological assets of SEK 356 million Q4 '24, in comparison with Q4 '23, EBITDA was up 18%, and that was mainly due to higher prices for pulpwood and sawlogs and higher delivery volumes to SCA Industries. Turning over to business area, Wood. In general, we still have a slow underlying market for solid wood products. Despite the generally low demand, we continue to see some signs of improvement in the repair and remodeling sector. Stock levels are at normal levels among producers and mainly on the low side at customers. I estimated that price for solid wood products in the fourth quarter in comparison with Q3 would be close to unchanged, which also happened. Our deliveries last quarter were on a normal level, that consequently also gave a close to unchanged stock level of sawn goods. As expected, the cost for sawlogs has increased from the third to the fourth quarter, and we also expect them to continue to increase going into the first quarter. Sales were up 12%, and EBITDA was up 260% in the fourth quarter '24 in comparison with the same period last year. The reason behind this were mainly higher prices. The EBITDA margin consequently increased from 5% to 17%. Today's stock level of solid wood products in Sweden and Finland is in relation to the average for the last 5 years, described at top left on this slide. As mentioned earlier, we note that inventory is on a normal level. As can be seen in the diagram to the bottom left, the Swedish and Finnish sawmills production has also been on normal levels accumulated for 2024. In the diagram to the top right, we can see that prices increased during the first half of '24, but has leveled out in the second half. Now coming into the first quarter 2025, I estimate that prices will increase with low single digits due to an improved balance between supply and demand. In the construction sector, we can conclude that start of new buildings continue to be low. Looking forward, we believe that consumption in the repair and remodeling sector will be early to respond on a positive -- in a positive way to lower interest rates. Over to Pulp. When one compares Q4 '24 with Q4 '23, sales were up 27%, mainly due to higher prices as well as higher delivery volumes. EBITDA was up more than 300%, mainly due to higher prices and positive currency effects. The yearly maintenance stop at Östrand had a negative impact of SEK 215 million in the fourth quarter. NBSK prices peaked in Europe in July at USD 1,620 per tonne after increasing for 10 consecutive months. We then saw decreasing prices and weaker demand during the remaining part of the year, and prices reached bottom in December at USD 1,480 to USD 1,490 per tonne. In the U.S., NBSK prices have had a similar development as in Europe. And after a slow summer in China with weak demand and decreasing prices, we reached the bottom at the end of August, and we now see approximately 10% higher prices and improving demand. Looking at CTMP, prices decreased in Europe during the fourth quarter, while being rather flat in Asia at a low level. In January, prices have been more or less unchanged. Inventories on softwood and hardwood pulp have been decreasing lately and are back on rather normal levels, as you can see in the diagram. CTMP inventories on the contrary have been increased in the last months and are on a rather high level. In January, NBSK prices was unchanged in Europe at USD 1,480 per tonne, while increasing further in China. And we have now similar price levels in Europe and China and a bit higher in the U.S. As earlier announced, SCA has increased the price in NBSK pulp in Europe by USD 50 per tonne, and the new price will be effective from February 1. And maybe just as a reminder, I can mention that we had increased discount rates from 1st of January. In U.S., we have seen that the indexes went up by USD 35 per tonne, which also will be used when we invoice our customers in February. And some words about short fiber, Suzano announced USD 100 per tonne for January. We think that will come through in February, and we have also seen another announcement of USD 60 per tonne in March. So moving over to Containerboard. Sales were up 11% in Q4 in comparison with the same period last year. We can note higher prices on the positive side, while lower volumes due to planned maintenance stop in Obbola had a negative impact in this comparison. EBITDA was down by 17% due to the maintenance stop. The stop went well, but had a negative impact on the result in the quarter of SEK 120 million to SEK 130 million. The negative effect of the maintenance stop and the negative effect of higher costs related to wood raw material was met by higher prices. We have seen box demand moving sideways compared to Q3, but a solid growth in comparison to last year. And by that, we are now almost back to historical growth trend levels. We can see an improved retail demand supported by increase in consumer confidence, which should support the continued growth in box demand over time. On the other side, we also note the continued negative growth in the European manufacturing industry, which, for the moment, drives the demand in a slightly negative direction. Nevertheless, the European demand of containerboard has improved in Q4 compared to the same period last year and the full year. Demand growth for containerboard will end with growth above historical trend levels. Moving into 2025, supply and demand balance will be impacted negatively by additional supply coming on stream with the vast majority coming in testliner. Kraftliner inventories have been slightly above average level in Q4 with a seasonal increase in December. The availability of OCC improved in Q4. And consequently, we have seen OCC prices declining, and we expect prices in the beginning of '25 to be rather stable. European prices for brown kraftliner have decreased in Q4 by EUR 40 per tonne, and white kraftliner has during the same period decreased by EUR 20 per tonne. We have seen a continued price pressure in the beginning of this year, and prices for brown kraftliner have decreased by another EUR 20 per tonne in January. However, we now feel a more solid underlying demand in combination with strong cost pressure. And due to that, we have this morning announced a price increase for both brown and white kraftliner from March with EUR 90 per tonne. So over to Renewable Energy. In business area Renewable Energy, we had a weaker quarter compared to the same period last year. The market for solid biofuels remained stable, higher prices for sawdust in our pellets business were met by higher prices. In line with previous quarters, the green premiums for tall oil and liquid biofuels are substantially lower in comparison with the same period last year. Main reasons are lower blending mandates in Sweden and increased imports from China, creating an imbalance in supply-demand and in the renewable fuel's market. Ramping up Gothenburg Biorefinery together with St1 in this market environment has put short-term pressure on the segment during '24. We expect market volatility in renewable fuels to remain relatively high as Europe ramps up the blending maintenance, both in HVO and SAF. Long term, our outlook is positive. But in the short term, we expect continued low refining margins in bio premiums. However, we have seen some recovery in prices in bio premiums towards end of the quarter. Electricity prices were low during the quarter, which impacted our Wind business negatively. SCA continues to grow in leasing out land for wind power and has now reached around 10 terawatt hours. So wind power on SCA land by the end of Q4, and that is equal to 20% of installed capacity of wind power in Sweden. And finally, I can mention that the execution of our windmill project, Fasikan, is progressing according to plan. And by that, I hand over to you, Andreas.

Thank you, Ulf, and good morning, everybody. I'll start off with the forest valuation and the free average price, which we use in the forest valuation to get enough transactions, decreased by 2% to SEK 388 per cubic meter. The market for forest transactions was slow in the beginning of the year, but improved during the second half of the year in both volume and price. On the next slide, we have the forest price weight by region and supplier, which you can also find in our report. The standing volume, as you can see, is concentrated to the southern part of Norrland. The free average price for 2024 is based on approximately 700 to 900 transactions from both Ludvig and Svefa. The valuation of SCA's forest assets totaled SEK 107 billion in 2024, which was in line with the previous year. The decrease of the 3-year average price in Sweden was offset by continued increase in standing volume to 274 million cubic meters. Biological assets increased by SEK 1.8 billion, driven by increase in long-term prices for wood raw materials and net growth in standing volume while the value of the land decreased. Prices for wood raw materials continued to increase. The slide shows the index price development for sawlogs and pulpwood paid by SCA's industry delivered to site. Prices are at a record high level and is continued -- expected to continue to increase in the beginning of 2025. If we move on to the income statement and focus on the full year to the right, net sales increased 12% to SEK 20 billion, driven by both higher prices and higher volumes. EBITDA increased 5% to SEK 7.1 billion, driven mainly by higher prices, which was partly offset by higher cost for wood raw materials. The EBITDA margin was 35%. EBIT increased to SEK 5 billion, and financial items totaled minus SEK 506 million with an effective tax rate of just below 20%, bringing net profit to SEK 3.6 billion or SEK 5.18 per share. If we look at the fourth quarter to the left, EBITDA totaled SEK 1.6 billion and was affected by planned maintenance stops in both Ostrand and Obbola with SEK 338 million. Net profit for the quarter totaled SEK 820 million or SEK 1.17 per share. Looking at the dividend, we have proposed dividend of SEK 3 per share, a SEK 0.25 increase compared to the dividend last year, which is in line with our target to have a long-term stable and increasing dividend over time. On the next slide, we have the financial development by segment for the full year. Starting with the Forest segment to the left, net sales increased to SEK 8.8 billion, and EBITDA was in line with the previous year at SEK 3.5 billion. Higher prices for pulpwood and sawlog and increasing harvest from SCAs on Forest was offset by lower evaluation of biological assets. In Wood, prices were 10% higher in 2024 compared to 2023. At the same time, prices for sawlogs continued to increase, which was partly offset by higher income from byproducts. Net sales increased to SEK 5.5 billion and EBITDA decreased to SEK 927 million corresponding to a margin of 17%. In Pulp, net sales increased to just below SEK 8.1 billion due to higher prices and higher volumes. EBITDA increased to SEK 1.7 billion, corresponding to a margin of 21%. In the fourth quarter, we had a planned maintenance stop, which impacted the results by SEK 215 million. In Containerboard, net sales increased to SEK 6.4 billion, driven by higher volumes from Obbola and positive currency effect. EBITDA declined to SEK 932 million, driven by higher costs for raw material. The EBITDA margin totaled 15%. In the fourth quarter, we had a planned maintenance stop in Obbola, which impacted results by SEK 123 million. In Renewable Energy, the cost for sawdust increased, which affected the profitability in solid biofuels negatively, but affected our wood division positively. The market for liquid biofuels and tall oil was weak. And in Wind, we had lower electricity prices. EBITDA decreased to SEK 451 million, corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 22%. On the next slide, we have the sales bridge between Q4 last year and Q4 this year. Prices increased 14%, with higher pricings in pulp, wood and containerboard. Volumes increased 1%, and currency had a positive impact of 2%, bringing net sales to SEK 5.1 billion. Moving on to the EBITDA bridge and starting to the left. Price/mix had a negative impact of SEK 588 million, and higher costs from mainly wood raw materials had a negative impact of SEK 154 million. Energy had a negative impact of SEK 67 million, mainly due to lower energy income and a turbine revision in Pulp with a positive impact from currency and the quarter was negatively impacted by higher cost for planned maintenance stops and lower revaluation of biological assets. In total, EBITDA was in line with the previous year at SEK 1.6 billion, corresponding to a margin of 32%. Looking at the cash flow, we had an operating cash flow of just below SEK 3.2 billion for the year and SEK 1.3 billion for the quarter. Moving on to the balance sheet. The value of the Forest asset totaled SEK 107 billion. Working capital increased to SEK 4.8 billion, and capital employed totaled SEK 115 billion. Net debt stood at SEK 10.9 billion, equity totaled SEK 104 billion, corresponding to net debt to equity of 11%. Thank you. And with that, I'll hand back to you, Ulf.

So thanks, Andreas. And -- I mean, just to summarize, I think that we have delivered a strong result during last year. We have had rather tough market conditions. And despite that, we delivered SEK 7.1 billion and a 35% EBITDA margin. We have seen a rather strong price increase when it comes to raw materials, wood raw materials, and that we have, to some extent, mitigated by high volumes from -- record high volumes from our own forest. We can also state that we see step-by-step higher production capacity related to our strategic investments in containerboard and pulp, which is positive, of course. And we can also see that the market has bottomed out in the -- at the end of last year, and now, we see a rather positive development in each area, Wood, Pulp and also Containerboard. So by that, I think we open up for questions.

[Operator Instructions] We will now take our first question from Johannes Grunselius of DNB Markets.

Yes. It's Johannes. I have 2 questions. First, on Obbola and the ramp-up. You touched upon it, Ulf, that you talk about step-by-step higher volumes. Would it be possible for you to sort of give us some kind of guidance how much more volumes we can expect '25 versus '24 due to Obbola? And if you can talk a little bit about improved cost position when Obbola is producing more and is presumably more stable? That's my first question.

Yes, we will not give you a figure. But again, if we -- I mean it's fair to believe that we should reach maybe 15%, 20% more output from Obbola this year in comparison with 2025. We are still in a phase where we -- if we need, I mean, we stop and we do what we need in order to, long term, have a high-quality site. So I mean -- but I mean, it's fair to expect that we will increase by 15%, 20%. About improvement cost, Andreas, maybe you should say.

Yes, we had -- we still had some ramp-up cost this quarter around maybe SEK 60 million, SEK 70 million. And of course, that will continue to decrease over time. What we guided on at investment was that when fully ramped up it should contribute with around SEK 800 million to SEK 1 billion in total EBITDA, assuming trend prices.

Yes. And then my other question is, yes, on your general comment on the cycle here, Ulf, you said you're expecting the cycle to have bottomed out here at the end of last year. Can you elaborate on that? I mean, do you see any risk for any backlashes here? I'm particularly thinking about Pulp where you go for price hikes. Any risks at all in the market? Or is it sort of you're seeing evidence of improving markets now?

It's always a risk to be in the market. I mean we cannot really forecast what's going to happen in the second half of this year. But we feel -- if we talk about Pulp, I mean, we feel a stable demand now. We have also seen that the stock level has come down and -- I mean, we also today, I would say that we were more or less the same net price in China, Europe, a little bit higher in the U.S., but that is a good starting point for further price increases, to be honest. I mean, we feel that we have a rather strong pulp market, a little bit earlier than I thought maybe, but still there we are. I mentioned also that we -- and that was a little bit of a surprise that -- we will increase prices a little bit in the first quarter, and that is mainly for wood -- solid wood products. And that is mainly related to higher cost for wood raw materials, of course. And -- so I mean -- but then I believe as -- we will have a seasonal effect in the second quarter with another price increase in the second quarter. Maybe not -- I think it would be nothing dramatic, but still, we will have a positive development there. In Containerboard, I was maybe a little bit surprised myself. We actually reduced the prices in -- as I said, in January by EUR 20 per tonne. And all of a sudden, we feel that we have a rather balanced market. We also -- of course, we feel a strong cost pressure in all areas. And we also see that testliner producers, they now go for price increases. And that's the reason also why we -- among others, we have announced a price increase from -- effective from 1st March by EUR 90 per tonne. So I mean in all these 3 areas, we are fairly positive as it is just now.

And we will now take our next question from Ephrem Ravi of Citigroup.

Just a couple of questions. Firstly, on the containerboard -- sorry, specifically kraftliner price increases that you have announced today of EUR 90. Is it more a function of cost push inflation that you're seeing around the industry with higher pulp prices and pulpwood prices? Or is it more a function of demand because inventories for kraftliner looks a little bit on the higher side and also the shipment rates are pretty much flattish versus the third quarter? So what gives you confidence that these price increases will go through? And secondly, again, on a similar vein on the Wood division, can you give us a sense as to historically what has been the lag between saw wood -- sawlog prices going up and wood prices -- the wood product prices kind of going up? I appreciate kind of demand may be a little bit weak right now. But in your experience, what's the historic kind of pattern or lag been?

Thank you. In general, I think it's better to take one question at a time because then I can remember what you asked for. But if we start now with the kraftliner anyway, I mean, no doubt -- I mean, we had a stronger consumption in '24 in comparison with '23. So that is one, of course, underlying factor. I said that -- also that in the retail sector, we start to see quite good demand for boxes. While we all know that -- I mean, the manufacturing industry is -- that's not perfect, but we have listened to some reports now from Volvo and other players. And I mean they also feel that they have an increase in demand in the -- underlying demand in the market. So let's see where we come. No doubt that for the moment, it is a cost -- it is the cost pressure that really push prices upwards now in both kraftliner and testliner. So I mean that is the main -- that is, of course, the main reason. In Wood, and we were talking about the lagging effect, I would say that -- I don't know if I can give a general answer to that. Of course, if you have a very high price for wood raw materials, then you need to increase the prices for the wood products. Otherwise, you -- when you're cash negative, then, of course, producers, they stop production, and that has happened. And -- I mean, even if we did 17% EBITDA margin in the fourth quarter, we can see that many players, they are in red figures for the fourth quarter. So it differs -- for different reasons, it differs -- the profitability differs between different companies and also different geographical areas. So I don't know if I can say -- give you a general answer on that one. You'd like to add something, Andreas?

No, I can just add that -- I mean, as we mentioned before, that we will see continued increase in both pulpwood and sawlog prices going into Q1.

That will, of course, mitigate the effect of the price increase that we now will perform during the first quarter.

And we'll now take our next question from Lars of Stifel.

Just want to come back a bit to the assets you're ramping up. You mentioned SEK 60 million, SEK 70 million in the quarter for ramp-up cost in Obbola. Could you share what you've had through the year, both at the CTMP mill and Obbola? And then how we should think about gradual reduction as a delta in '25?

Yes. If we look at ramp-up cost for Obbola, I think I guided in Q3 for about SEK 45 million. And then in Q1 and Q2, I think it was a similar level to what we have in Q4, around SEK 60 million, SEK 70 million. And then we will see how it develops in the next year. But as Ulf said, ramp up, then we fix something, then you have to reduce the production. Now that, of course, increases the amount of chemicals, and things you need. That would gradually decrease, but it's hard to say exactly. If we look at CTMP, there I think the ramp-up costs are less. We're still trimming the mill, but I think we are at a good level there now.

All right. And the question just on the harvest levels. You said it's record harvest levels and you have a positive trajectory over time, of course, to increase your harvest. But these sort of levels that we have now, are they compatible? And can they continue with the growth you have in the Forest?

Yes. So we have -- if you look at our harvesting plan, we have a target over the next 5, 10 years to go up to 5.4 million cubic meters on average. For the last couple of years, we have gradually been increasing to that level. So this year, we had around 5.2 million.

We'll now move on to our next question from Patrick Mann of Bank of America.

There are 2 big Forest packages up for sale at the moment, one in the Baltics and one in Sweden. Are you interested in adding significantly to your forest holdings in the near term? Or can you just talk about how you're thinking about that?

I mean, in principle, we are interested in buying forest land. That we have done in the past, and we will continue to do so also going forward. Then it's, as always, a question about timing. And I would say the sale that we now see in Sweden, we are not in the process and you have lots of limitations, I guess, in that process. And -- yes, I don't know if it's open for industrial players really. We are not involved. We have not been invited. So that's the clear answer on that one. The Baltics is, of course, of some interest. But again, it's a question about -- it's a question of timing and what you can afford for the moment being. Just now we are very much focused on our balance sheet and to consolidate and ramping up what we have started in terms of big investments. And so that is mainly our biggest focus for the moment being.

And then could I -- if I could have another one, just -- I mean wood prices, the raw material costs, I mean, you flagged a couple of times record highs. You continue to expect that to increase into the first quarter. I mean, what's the longer-term outlook here? How high can they go? What factors could we watch as sort of leading indicators that potentially could come down or consolidate?

Yes. I mean, just now, we see that it is easier to get access to pulpwood in the -- in -- yes, at the end of last year, but also in the beginning of this year. While I think in some areas, at least you still have a lack of sawlogs. And I mean if you have a lack of sawlogs, that will push prices up to the level where producers start to lose money, of course. How long will it last? In general, I would say that we will have slightly tough balance when it comes to supply and demand in different parts of the world, Canada, Central Europe and so on. And that's the reason why I think that SCA is very well positioned as we can take around 50% of what we need from our own forest. As we've also discussed before, I mean, we are still impacted by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and you know that we have lost into the European system about 10 million cubic meter per year. And at the same time, Sveaskog, they have announced that they will or they have reduced the harvesting level on their own forest by 1 million cubic meter. And I guess that's mainly in the very northern part of Sweden. So I mean -- I guess that it will be a tough balance also going forward. And by that, we will have rather high prices for wood raw materials.

And we'll now take our next question from Robin Santavirta of Carnegie.

The first question I have is regarding the Containerboard segment. And yes, did you comment on the expected ramp-up cost in 2025 versus '24? I guess you spoke about '24, but what about the outlook for 2025?

We expect to continue to have some ramp-up cost in 2025, but the exact numbers, it's hard to say. We have to wait and see, but we expect them to gradually decrease as we ramp up production.

All right. In terms of the pulpwood market, you call an increase in Q1 versus Q4 as a P&L impact, if I understand correctly. Is that the lag impact of prices going up throughout the end of last year? Or are these sort of in a way spot prices that you buy now? Are they still increases -- increasing versus the end of last year?

I will say it's a lagging effect for pulpwood. It's a lagging effect. And in some areas, I also guess that we have a rather big portion of lagging effect in -- when it comes to sawlog prices. But in some areas, the competition to get sawlogs is quite tough. So I mean, in some areas, I guess, that we can also see somewhat higher prices for sawlogs. But again, when you look at the result for many players, just now, they are on negative or red figures and that cannot really continue because then production, of course, will decrease. So -- but we feel -- yes, now we feel a little bit of a surplus of pulpwood, I would say, in the market. Andreas...

Yes. Just to add, we saw in sawlog that some players recently added price with around SEK 100 per cubic meter. So I think it's -- sawlog, it's both, underlying prices increasing, but a lag effect on pulpwood is more of a lag effect.

But also just to clarify, we have 2 price systems. So what you see in the price list is not always what you pay in the market, of course.

No, for sure. Regarding the pulpwood surplus you're seeing, in Finland, there's a lot of talk about like the energy wood market, that it has collapsed because of the very mild winter. Is this something that plays in? Or is it just pulpwood sort of balance becoming better because of the tough market environment and weaker demand?

I guess that the mild winter definitely is playing in. And -- I mean, as I described, we don't see a tougher end market this year in comparison with last year. I mean, we see coming price increases. I mean, we will not maybe have an effect the first quarter, but definitely the second quarter in all areas, both in Pulp and also in Containerboard. So I mean, the demand will be, I think, good, but availability of pulpwood is higher as it is just now in comparison with the past. Might be connected related to the energy market.

Yes. Yes. A follow-up question I have is related to the Wood segment. How do you see the impact of potential tariffs into the U.S. from Canada? What would impact beyond the market and any impact on you directly?

I mean -- I think it would be a mess if we have these tariffs. We -- I mean, we haven't seen them, and we don't know what kind of -- in what shape we will have them. But -- and I don't think it's so easy to foresee what's going to happen because the pattern will, of course, change. If you have tariffs between Canada and U.S., that will -- short term, it will maybe -- it might be good for our products. Long term, of course, these products must find another play. It will have no impact on the consumption. So I mean, for us, I think for Sweden as a country and for us as a very dependent on export, I think we like to have a free trade and a level playing field, and so, we don't like tariffs. We can gain in some area, and we can lose in some area. But long term, I think it's so important that we can have free trade.

And we will now take our next question from Gaurav Jain of Barclays.

I have 3 questions. One is your comments on Pulp prices. Can you just please repeat them? Because I think there were a few moving parts. So what I got is that Suzano has increased prices by $100 in Feb and another $60 in March. And you have also announced the price increase now, and you will look at another price increase in Q2. Did I get that correct?

Yes. I mean, first, if we take short fiber first, I mean -- and then what Suzano has announced is USD 100 per tonne up from January. We believe that, that will come through in February maybe, but that's not up to us to say. And then they have announced another price increase from 1st of March by another USD 60 per tonne. So all in all, USD 100 plus USD 60, USD 160 per tonne. On NBSK, we have -- I would say that we have increased prices now from -- effective from 1st of February by USD 50 per tonne. And I mean, it's still to be seen what's going to happen in coming months, but we believe that the price will continue to move upwards. But again, you have to take into consideration when you do your calculation that we had an increased discount rate from first of January in Europe, and that one was a little bit higher in comparison to the discount rate that we increased in U.S. So I mean that must be taken into consideration when you calculate on the net effect. And as always, we have a lag effect before we can see it in the P&L.

Sure. Now my second question is on what should we expect in terms of biological gain to be put in P&L for next year? And if I look at that Forest valuation graph, then clearly, over the last 2 years, prices are down so that average of 3 years lines should be flattening out, which it has. So does it mean that you will start taking lower biological gain in your P&L?

The biological gain is mostly driven by the net growth and the increase in the price for wood raw material. And we have in our model several-year average price for raw material, and then, that is expected to continue to increase as we move that forward. But currently, we expect something around SEK 1.8 billion for biological assets, but it depends on how things will develop during the next year.

And my last question is on CapEx plans for FY '25 and beyond. So could you just reiterate them? What should we put in the model?

Yes. So CapEx, if we start with current CapEx, we came in a bit lower this year, but we have some spillover effect to 2025. So we expect maybe up to SEK 1.7 billion in current CapEx, and on strategic CapEx, just below SEK 1.5 billion, but it also depends on the payment -- timing of some payments, but as a round figure.

Sure. And where should it step down after FY '25, if you could comment on that?

On after '25, strategic CapEx will decrease as the largest payment we have now for strategic CapEx next year is our windmill Fasikan, and that is around SEK 1 billion, SEK 1.1 billion for the next year. We also have some payments left in Pulp and our Containerboard division. But in 2026, the strategic CapEx will go down a lot if we don't do any new big investments.

And we'll now take our next question from Oskar Lindstrom of Danske Bank.

A couple of questions from me, and maybe I'll start with the first one then. Talking about net debt, which is now just under SEK 11 billion, about 1.5x EBITDA. And you say -- presently, you're focused on strengthening your balance sheet. What level of net debt are you aiming for? And do you believe is sort of appropriate for you medium to long term, say? And sort of an additional question on this, would you be willing to significantly increase your net debt short term? And if so, what would be the sort of upper limit that you would be willing or able to go to, you believe?

Firstly, I mean, we want to keep an investment grade credit rating. That's our target. And as Ulf said, our focus now is to ramping up our investments. And that will, of course, increase EBITDA and decrease the leverage. So that's our current focus. We don't want short time to increase our net debt any significantly. We are committed to staying at investment grade.

And to stay at investment grade, you believe you need to be at roughly where you are now sort of 1.5x EBITDA. Is that how I should interpret your reply?

No, we have -- I mean, for us, I think FFO to debt is the -- is what limits us. And to be investment grade, we need the FFO to debt over 20%. Currently, we are at around 32%, something like that. But to keep our current rating, we need FFO to debt around 30%. But to keep, investment grade has to be above 20%. So we still have some headroom. But we -- our aim is to be around that -- around 30% FFO to debt.

Right. And so short -- there's no sort of leeway for you to short term significantly to go below 20%.

No, we don't want to go below 20%.

And then on the forest land, I mean, you stated now earlier in the call that you are interested in buying more forest land, including in the Baltics. And I believe you have a target in your strategy to increase your Baltic forest land holdings to about 100,000 hectares. And if I look at your web page, you say, I think, you have now about 70,000 hectares of land, of which I believe about 50,000 is forest lands in the Baltics. How hard is that target? I mean, is it an absolute ceiling? Would you be willing to sort of go significantly above this? Or what's your thinking here about owning forest land in the Baltics? And how much do you need or would you like to have?

I mean, as you know, we have -- SCA is a forest company with industry, and step by step, we have increased the area of forest land within SCA, and that we will continue to do. And preferably, we will buy in Sweden, but the problem is to get access to legal entities, which we need to do. Yes, you know the legislation. And the reason then for us going to the Baltics is that we can continue to increase the forest land. And that we will do when we have the money. I mean that's not emergency. I mean the plan, and we did announce something just in order to give a figure, and we said that we should reach 100,000 hectares in 5 years. I mean if it takes 7 years, it doesn't really matter. It's also a question about timing and what kind of price level you have in these different regions. And -- I mean, when you get the opportunity, so I mean -- so that's our view, we will continue to buy forest land when we can. If we can, we will -- preferably we will buy in Sweden. If we can't do that, then we think that the Baltics is good opportunity and a good option. If we take care of the forest land in the Baltics in the same way as we do in Sweden, then we think it's a great potential to have land there.

Great. Just a final question, and quicker one. On Pulp, you mentioned that the discount rate had increased in January. How much roughly?

Sorry, the...

Does your 50 -- yes, the discount rate, I'm just trying to figure out if the discount has increased by roughly USD 50 per tonne, and then, now you announced a $50 per tonne increase.

I can say that the price increase has not fully compensated for the increased discount in January. It will do when we have done another USD 50 per tonne. Then we have a little bit more than compensated. So then you have the range.

And we'll now take our next question from Charlie Muir-Sands of BNP Paribas Exane.

Most of my questions have been answered. But just one more on Pulp. The revenue per tonne drop was a bit sharper than at least I'd anticipated in Q4. I just wondered whether there was any mix effects, whether it was particularly a mix to more CTMP, as you took maintenance downtime in the main mill or whether it was a mix between contract and spot, which was adverse in the quarter compared with Q3.

Yes. As you mentioned, I think the largest effect is, of course, we have a larger portion of CTMP now as you're ramping up our new CTMP mill, but also had the maintenance stop in Astral.

And we'll now take our next question from Ioannis Masvoulas of Morgan Stanley.

Most of my questions have been answered, but I had one on Containerboard, and regarding, again, the price hike of EUR 90 you've announced. Could you perhaps clarify where that gets your brown and white kraftliner price levels? And if we were then to look at your Q4 profitability per tonne, if we get the full EUR 90 to come through your P&L for that division going forward, it feels like profitability would move towards historical average levels. Is that the right way to think about it? And is that realistic given where inventory levels are and where utilization rates are across the industry?

Yes, just to start, our price level, we don't comment on the exact price level, but what you can do is if you look at the sales and divide that by our delivery volumes, then you will get very good estimate of where our current price level is on Containerboard. And I think in Pulp, when you have price increases, then you have to -- that's gross, so then you have to remove the rebate in kraftliner. The discounts are very, very low. So if prices, for example, go up X euro per tonne, that's also roughly what the prices increases on. So that's a bit different dynamics between Pulp and Containerboard.

Okay. And sorry, just the second part of the question around where that gives your profitability per tonne, it feels like it does improve profitability quite significantly from current levels. Do you think there is enough impetus today given utilization levels, given inventory levels that you show in your slide deck? Or for the full EUR 90 to stick you need demand to continue improving?

Yes, I mean, it's hard to say really. But again, I mean the reason for this price increase is, of course, mainly related to the cost pressure. And -- but we -- also underlying, we see an increased demand during '24 in comparison with '23. And I think -- personally, I think we will see a continued recovery in the economy during '25 and not the least 2026 if nothing very unexpected will happen in coming years. I think we will -- step by step, we will see the recovery. And again, when we -- as one indicator, when we look at the box demand, you can see that we are now back on trend levels, and I guess that will continue. So I don't know if you like to add something or no.

[Operator Instructions] We will now move on to our next question from Andrew Jones of UBS.

Just on the EUR 90 kraftliner price hike, I'm curious to what extent potential supplier disruption from Finland is filtering into your thinking around that? Obviously, last year, you benefited from a lot of capacity being shut in due to the port strikes. Is that something that's part of your thinking there? And also just sort of broader question. For this year, there's obviously loads of new testliner capacity coming into the market. Usually, testliner and kraftliner move together. Given the vast difference in where the supply additions are coming from, do you think there is potential for that spread to significantly widen this year as that capacity hits?

Yes. I think if we start with the second one, we shall remember. I mean the spread has step-by-step increased. And I think in -- I mean, to some extent you have a connection between kraftliner and testliner, but it is, of course, also a question about function. And what we see now in the market is that the capacity of testliner is step-by-step increasing while kraftliner capacity is -- I mean, it's rather stable. It is more or less our own expansion in Obbola that have an impact. So I guess that you will see, and -- yes, you -- we have seen an increasing spread between kraftliner, testliner. I guess that will remain for a while. It might be also bigger because again, it's a question about supply and demand. The first question, Andreas, I don't remember, so maybe you can take it.

I don't remember. Can you take that question again?

Yes. I was just asking about -- you obviously have potential for supply disruption again in Finland. Is there a -- is that filtering into the way you're thinking about the price hikes? I mean is this opportunistic given there may be some disruption over in Finland and you could benefit from that?

Maybe I didn't get it right. But was it, if you have any relation with the potential strike in Finland? Is that -- was that the question?

Yes.

Yes. I mean, what we have seen in the -- I mean, we have seen a lot of strikes in Finland for some reason. And I mean, if we have a strike in Finland, that will, of course, have an impact depending on how long will it be and, I mean, how many will be impacted by the strike. But that we have definitely seen in the past. We don't speculate in the Finnish strike. And definitely not now when we're talking about price increases from 1st of March -- I mean, that has no connection at all with the Finnish situation.

And we'll now take our next question from Linus Larsson of SEB.

Thanks a lot for squeezing in 1 or 2 follow-up questions towards the end of the call. You talk about rising wood costs in your P&L Q1 compared to Q4. Just curious whether you could quantify that, either on a per cubic meter basis or even better on an absolute level, please?

Yes. You're talking about 6%, 7%. Yes, 6%, 7% increase in both pulpwood and sawlog, around that.

Sorry.

6% to 7%.

On a sequential basis in the first compared to the fourth quarter.

Yes.

Okay. And that was on the pulpwood side.

Yes, on both. On both.

On both. Okay. Great. And then also, you touched upon it, but maybe just on the wood product side, your market outlook, any green shoots, any early cyclical signals that you're picking up in any geographies, if you could comment on that, please?

I think it's a fairly stable demand all over the area just now. So I mean, as I said, typically, we don't -- it's hard to manage to increase prices in the first quarter, typically, but that we will do now. It's not much. It's low single digits, but anyway. And then, of course, I believe that we will have a seasonal effect also in the second quarter. And by that, we can continue to increase prices for solid wood products. Then on the other hand, and as Andreas just mentioned, I mean, we will see increase in log prices in the first quarter. So by that, the margin for the solid wood business will -- yes, whether they will remain stable or not, it remains to see. But we feel -- I mean, if you also look at the inventory level, it's on a rather normal level. I guess we have a normal level by producers, but I guess that among customers, it's on the low side that we don't know, but I guess so. We feel that when you -- when we talk to customers and when you try to find out what kind of demand you have out there.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, concludes our full-year report presentation. We will come back in April for our first quarter report. Thank you for listening and asking questions.

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.