Swire Pacific Limited (19) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Swire Pacific 2023 Annual Results Analyst Briefing. Joining us at the briefing today are Mr. Guy Bradley, Chairman of Swire Pacific; Mr. Martin Murray, Finance Director of Swire Pacific; and Ms. Karen So, Managing Director of Swire Coca-Cola. Before we take a detailed look at our annual results for 2023, we would love to show you a short video highlighting Swire Pacific's key developments and achievements in 2023. Enjoy the video. [Presentation]

May we now invite Guy, Martin and Karen to take us through the details of the annual results of 2023.

Good evening, and thank you for joining us. I think we'll get straight into it. Look, it's a great set of results. First thing to say. Obviously, helped by -- well, we had a record underlying profit of HKD 36.2 billion, and that does include the HKD 22.9 billion gain from the sale of Swire Coca-Cola, USA, and the contribution from the agreement to sell 12 floors at One Island East, which are 2 extremely satisfactory deals that got done last year. This chart just shows the level of deal activity at the underlying profit level. In properties, you heard an hour ago that they've now committed almost 60% of the $100 billion plan to the core markets of Swire Properties, and that's a tremendous achievement in what's just about 2 years since they announced that plan. Beverages had a great year. You can see they completed, at the start of the year, the acquisition of the franchise territory in Vietnam, having just finished Cambodia just before the start of 2023. They then restructured the still beverages business in the Mainland China market. As I mentioned, we disposed of the Swire Coca-Cola, U.S.A., business. And then very recently, on the back of that disposal, we've conditionally agreed to acquire a majority stake in the bottling businesses in Thailand and Laos, and that was done in February 2024. So a lot going on, on the beverage front in 2023. Aviation, you heard yesterday, they declared an ordinary dividend for the first time since 2019, which I think is a good sign of the recovery. But meanwhile, they continue to invest and they've ordered 32 passenger aircraft last year on the narrow-body front with 6 cargo freighters. So there's growth plans happening on the aviation side. And lastly, and on a much smaller scale in healthcare, we were very happy to conclude a minority investment in Indonesia in conjunction with the Indonesian Investments Authority in the hospital sector down there. And as of this week, we've reached in principle agreement to acquire what will be a controlling stake in Delta Health in Shanghai, which is a main cardiology hospital in that city. Just a few highlights before Martin does the detail on the numbers. Obviously, at the recurring underlying profit level, we also had a substantial gain from HKD 3.8 billion in the prior year to HKD 10.4 billion, which is very, very satisfactory. And we're paying an increase of 7% in the ordinary dividends on the A shares, which is a good result. I think you can see in the chart on the bottom line there that both the Property and Beverages business were reasonably stable year-on-year. But the big turnaround, of course, came from aviation, and you can see that in the bottom right there, a huge swing in the results from primarily Cathay Pacific and its subsidiaries. This next chart talks a bit more about the underlying operations and what's happening, which is where we saw the recurring underlying profit of HKD 10.4 billion. In Property terms, you heard Tim talk about the retail recovery in both Hong Kong and the Chinese Mainland, and I think that's probably the biggest driver, somewhat offset by a rather subdued Hong Kong office situation. In Beverages, we're just seeing an increased contribution now throughout 2023 from the Southeast Asia portfolio. And I think you can expect that to continue into '24 with the addition of Thailand interest. Aviation. Cathay continued to rebuild its network, its frequencies, and that had a positive effect with good yields in '23. And HAECO on the back of that uplift in Aviation was able to ride on that and delivered an 86% increase in recurring profit. I'll now just hand over to Martin to talk about the detailed financial performance.

Thank you, Chairman. I'll start with the middle column, because it's the biggest number. The underlying profit of HKD 36.2 billion, as the Chairman said, are excellent results. The statutory profit, consolidated profit, as attributable to shareholders, which basically adjusts for the principal movement in the investments at HKD 28.9 billion. And then adjusting for the nonrecurring items, recurring underlying profit, a very strong recurring underlying profit of HKD 10.5 billion. Revenue, up 3%. And again, as the Chairman mentioned, delighted to continue with the progressive dividend policy of 7% on top of the special dividend that was paid on the sale of Swire Coca-Cola in the U.S. This slide here basically is that we can quickly go through the nonrecurring items on that piece. So if you look at the right-hand side there on the underlying profit, we made the comparison to the recurring profit it shows there. So in Property, you have the gain on One Island East, where the 12 floors of HKD 5.4 billion; 9 floors were included in the 2023 number of HKD 2.7 billion is our attributable level. In Beverages, you have the HKD 22.9 billion gain on the sale of Swire Coca-Cola, U.S., and then partly offset by a small impairment on the recycling business. In Aviation, we had a deemed disposal when Air China sold down its shares. And also, they reversed some of the impairments. Some of the aircraft they didn't expect to come back, came back into the fleet with some terrific results from Cathay Pacific that were announced yesterday. There was an impairment in goodwill in HAESL. And as you know, we sold the cabin solutions business that had been a drag on the HAECO business earlier in the year with a loss incurred in the results there. And then lastly, we're very excited actually to announce our investment in DeltaHealth. A small impairment there of HKD 250 million actually reflects the better pricing that we did in terms of doing the deal for the majority. So it's a good news story in terms of, as we explained, with the entry into healthcare, taking a patient view and waiting for valuations to come down to better levels. Here, just the reconciliation, which is outlined in the press release in terms of the difference between the underlying profit, the statutory profit to the recurring. On the recurring, as the Chairman mentioned, these are really strong results, even though they look quite flat. So I think from a Property point of view, as we mentioned earlier, Tim and Fanny went through very resilient results. It's fantastic to see the results, particularly on the retail side, given that being offset by the softness in the office market that's been there for the last couple of years. Beverages is flat, but you have to remember that we are missing 4 months from Swire Coca-Cola, U.S., in that piece. So again, great results on that and the first contributions from Vietnam, and then the terrific results from Aviation that were announced yesterday, and fantastic to see Cathay back in business and paying a dividend again. In terms of the balance sheet, again, we have a very strong balance sheet. Cash from operations is strong, up to HKD 14.5 billion. Our weighted average cost of debt remains relatively low at 4%. Gross borrowings fixed are at 76% on that piece. And gearing is a very well-managed 17%. And on the maturity profile, we've got a strong maturity profile. We have got some debt being refinanced in the second half of this year at very manageable levels.

Thanks, Martin. For those that weren't at the Properties' briefing earlier, I'll just do a quick summary of where that business went in 2023. You can see that the small increase in recurring underlying profit, driven by the retail recovery, primarily was somewhat offset by subdued office market in Hong Kong, as I've said. But overall, we're making good headway in all our strategic areas on the Property side. I'd just like to draw your attention to 2 things on here. One is the fact that Swire Properties were ranked #2 in the world last year in the Dow Jones Sustainability World Index, which is a tremendous feat, which we're very proud of. We believe in this sustainability theme, and we're delighted to be now the second best real estate player in that sector in the world, so it's a really good achievement by the team down there. The other thing to say is the divestment of One Island East over there for HKD 5.4 billion to the SFC. I think really just that transaction reinforced Taikoo Place's position as a global financial district, and we're extremely pleased to have got that transaction done in what you all know is a reasonably subdued market. This just talks to -- you have seen this before a year ago and probably an hour ago, but this just talks to the Property overview showing the effect of the exceptional items on the underlying profit movement, and those exceptional items being the One Island East divestment and the sale of the car parks in Taikoo Shing. Just moving on to the Chinese Mainland. The key point here, of course, is that the Chinese Mainland in 2023 contributed 40% of our attributable gross rental income, which is an all-time high. And the Chinese Mainland retail is now the second-largest rental contributor in our portfolio. So there's lots of growth going on in the Chinese Mainland for Swire Properties. I won't dwell on this chart. But again, it's one that looks familiar to you all. But the important point here is that almost 2/3 of that $100 billion commitment plan is actually committed now, and it's only 2 years into the 10-year plan. So been some great progress across the board really, Hong Kong, Southeast Asia, and in the Chinese Mainland. You can see the split there. Finally, here's the pipeline. Lots of interesting new projects ahead in lots of different geographies, all of which are core to ourselves. I think the one that I'd like to highlight really is the growth of 8 million square feet in the Chinese Mainland going forward, and those are on the projects that we've been able to announce. It's a great story what Swire Properties are doing up there, primarily on the back of Taikoo Li and Taikoo Hui. And you can see from here that, that story continues. At that point, I'll hand over to Karen to talk about the Coca-Cola business.

Thank you, Chairman. So 2023 was an exciting year for Swire Coca-Cola for expansion. In the Chinese Mainland side, we have completed the restructuring of the steel manufacturing business by acquiring 100% equity interest in 6 subsidiaries of CCBMH. Revenue in Chinese Mainland was similar to last year and sales volume increased by 2%. We have made good progress in expanding our portfolio across coffee, tea, and energy, which grows strongly. And we continue to enhance our efficiency and energy use in our production facility. In Southeast Asia, the total franchise population of Swire Coca-Cola territory has reached 847 million following the acquisition of Vietnam and Cambodia. Last year, Vietnam has made meaningful full year contribution to our overall business. And as you are aware, last month we conditionally agreed to acquire a majority stake of the Thailand bottlers in Laos in February. Over to the U.S. side, we have completed the sales of SCCU in September last year, recording a consolidation gain on disposal of HKD 22.9 billion. Swire Coca-Cola continued to provide management and administrative support to the business through an agreed annual management fee. The financial result of Swire Coca-Cola was impacted by the nonrecording of the last 4 months sales from SCCU. On the local domestic market, SCCU has delivered very strong revenue growth through the revenue growth strategy and also the innovation across multiple categories. So I just want to mention a bit more on our acquisition of the Thailand bottler. So ThaiNamthip franchise territory. ThaiNamthip is the bottler who manage 90% of Thailand and of Laos. ThaiNamthip is the nonalcoholic ready-to-drink market leader in Thailand with an annual production capacity of 450 million unit cases. The market share is at 18%. The acquisition underscores the immense growth potential that we see in Southeast Asia, and it will further strengthen our position as the fifth largest bottler for the Coca-Cola system. Over here you will see, the EBITDA performance is comparable versus 2022. And this is mainly due to the non-recording of the last 4-month sales from Swire Coca-Cola, U.S.A., in favorable exchange rate movement in Chinese Mainland and Vietnam. In last year, Vietnam has delivered strongly and provided meaningful contribution to the overall profit situation for Swire Coca-Cola. At the recurring attributable profit level, we are on par with 2022. And this is mainly, again, due to Swire Coca-Cola, U.S.A., exchange rate, and also which is offset by the contribution from Vietnam. From the category mix, we still see most of the category mix contributed by sparkling category, but most of our markets are having a good progress in expanding our portfolio across multiple categories. And I want to draw your attention to the EBITDA margin. We have improved our EBITDA margin by 0.7 percentage points, which is mainly contributed by the additional Southeast Asia market. And again here, you are able to see on the right-hand side of the chart, the Southeast Asia market addition to our overall portfolio helps to improve the overall EBITDA margin of Swire Coca-Cola. So with that, I would like to hand over back to Guy to talk about Aviation.

Thanks, Karen. We've discussed the turnaround in the Cathay Group and the recovery already. I'd just like to highlight on here the HAECO side of Aviation. And you can see that they turned in a decent recurring profit gain for 2023 of 86% on the back of the Aviation recovery. Cathay Pacific, meanwhile, obviously, had a huge year. That huge year has allowed them to pay back the preference share dividends of HKD 0.2 billion in February 2024, to pay an ordinary share dividend of HKD 0.43 a share, which will be paid in May, and they plan to buy back the remaining 50% of the preference shares in the amount of HKD 9.8 billion to the Hong Kong government by the end of July 2024. In terms of the Aviation overview, this is really just a story both on the passenger and the cargo side of yields. 2023 saw very healthy yields. 2024, we're going to see some normalization of those yields, both, as I say, on the passenger and on the cargo side as the industry continues to recover. For HAECO, most of the group's businesses performed better in '23 than the prior year, driven by the substantial resurgence of Hong Kong air traffic, which drove the increase in the demand for maintenance and repair of airframes, particularly line maintenance in Hong Kong. The recurring attributable profit increased, primarily benefiting from higher activity in base maintenance, line maintenance and engine overhauls. And that was partially offset by a higher operating loss from the cabin solutions business that we managed to dispose of in the middle of the year. The group completed the sale of that business in September, and that resulted actually in a nonrecurring loss on disposal of HKD 420 million. Just turning to healthcare. I mentioned the 2 transactions. The great thing about the Delta transaction, this will be our first control acquisition in healthcare. We've taken a rather conservative stab during COVID of going into minority positions in some investments. And now we feel confident enough to actually take a control position here, and we're quite excited about that. But that is a deal that is just happening this week, so that will be good. On the Indonesia side, again, very exciting geography for us and for healthcare. We're in with a great partner in the Indonesian Investment Authority, and it just really shows our commitment to supporting the development of that sector in Southeast Asia and specifically Indonesia. On here, you can see that we did start small during COVID. The existing investments are trending in the right direction. We do expect valuations of target assets to soften. And if they do, we've earmarked HKD 20 billion in capital over the next few years. So far, we've only spent just under HKD 3 billion of that capital allocation. So hopefully, there's more to come on the healthcare side. Martin would like to cover sustainability.

Thank you. So on sustainability, in Swire, we report our ESG sustainability on what we call SwireTHRIVE, which is the 5 pillars on the left-hand side there in terms of carbon, waste, water, D&I, and also includes health and safety and communities. And we've set relatively aggressive targets for 2030. 50% carbon emissions by 2030, 65% waste diversion, 30% reduction in water withdrawal, 30% women on the Board. And in all these targets, we are very much on track, great to see. So in Climate, we reduced our emissions to our 2018 baseline by 30%. And it's good to see us getting recognition in different schools at A-. In waste, we are at 61%, so well on track to hit that target. Water, we've been on track also to hit the 2030 target, having reduced our water consumption by 8% against the 2018 efficiency baseline. And again, good to see Swire Coca-Cola getting recognized with a score of A-. In terms of D&I, we've achieved a target of 30% women on the Board. In terms of striving to achieve these targets, we are piloting, across our 3 core divisions, an internal carbon pricing mechanism, which again would encourage the divisions to keep investing in reaching those 2030 targets. And again, as I'll keep mentioning, the way we stand at indices, we are proud of the results that Swire Properties have just announced in terms of the Dow Jones Sustainable Index. Swire Pacific, we're AA+ on the Hang Seng Corporate Sustainability Index and AAA on the MSCI Index. So from that point of view, we are in good shape in terms of sustainability. And I encourage you all to read the sustainability report that will come out early April at the same time as the annual report.

Thank you. In terms of outlook, finally, the detailed outlook by division is right there. I would just say, in sort of headline terms, there's no change to our strategy. I feel we're well positioned financially and in pipeline terms for more investments in our core businesses and geographies, and we remain completely focused on improving value for shareholders in 2024. That said, 2024 will have headwinds, and they will be felt across most of our businesses. And with that, we should go to questions.

Thank you, Guy, Martin and Karen. We'll now proceed to the Q&A session as the Chairman says, and we will take questions from the floor. [Operator Instructions] Any questions, please? Yes, gentlemen in the middle.

Karl Choi from Bank of America. A couple of questions. First of all, for the Beverage business, you mentioned, I think, the outlook for Mainland China is still somewhat, I think, challenging in 2024. Can you just give a little bit more color on what you're seeing? And given the low inflation environment, what's the pricing outlook there? And second is regarding capital returns. Obviously, Swire announced a HKD 6 billion buyback program, which has been very well received. But given the additional Southeast Asian Beverage investments and some of the other things in your pipeline, from a credit or a sort of a leverage standpoint, is there additional scope to continuing with the share buyback program beyond the HKD 6 billion?

Thank you for the question. Yes, after COVID, we do see a very slow economy recovery post COVID time in 2023. And we continue to see 2024 is going to be challenging overall economic environment. However, we remain fully confident on the long-term outlook of the economic situation for China. So Swire Coca-Cola will continue our investment in this market and continue our capability building.

Yes. On the share buyback, yes, we did announce the HKD 6 billion program, and we're very early stages in that. That will go through to May 2025. So we've spent just about HKD 900 million of that program to date. So we are tracking to spend that HKD 6 billion. We completed last year the previous HKD 4 billion program. So we liked it. And we'll continue to assess that near the time. We've got a long time before we have to reassess the share buyback. But at the same time, as we said, we have made big announcements over the last 2 years that Tim was mentioning, again, earlier, the HKD 100 billion that Swire Properties have made, the HKD 20 billion that we've talked about in terms of healthcare, continuing to invest in all our core businesses at this time where we are seeing opportunities, just like in healthcare, et cetera. And we've been saying for the last 2 years that we will not change our progressive dividend policy and it won't change our ability to do share buybacks. Finally mentioned Dalian in terms of Swire Properties having keeping gearing for the next couple of years between 12%, 15%. So similarly, the gearing could easily go up to 20% over the midterm in terms of Swire Properties, and always could go to a healthy mid-20s, and I'd still be very, very happy with that. So we're in great shape, I think, to continue with all shareholder returns in that sense.

Thank you, Karen and Martin. Any next question from the floor? Yes, gentlemen in the middle, please.

This is George Choi from Citi. I have a couple of questions on the Thailand bottler acquisition. So we're told now that this bottling operation has an annual capacity of 450 million unit cases. Just wonder if you have the data on how many unit cases were produced last year in 2023. And in terms of EBITDA margin from that operation as compared to, let's say, Vietnam, please?

Thank you. So Thailand bottler, the current production capacity is 450 million. They produced 400 million cases in 2023. So in terms of EBITDA margin, overall, the EBITDA margin from our Southeast Asia market is on a higher rate compared with our the rest of the Asia business. It is comparable with our Vietnam margin.

Thank you. Any other questions?

This is Jeffrey Mak from Morgan Stanley. First of all, congratulations on the strong results. And it was great to see that you raised your regular dividend by 7%. Just want to check how do we think about the future dividend growth given that you have now sold the U.S. bottling business, which contributed quite a part of your regular profit, excluding CX. And also you mentioned that the outlook for office market is quite challenging. And the second question is, what is your outlook for the funding costs and also net gearing in the coming years?

Yes. Sure. So the first piece -- sorry, the first question was on the...

Dividend outlook.

The dividend outlook, Yes. So our dividend policy is to pay at least 50% of our recurring underlying profit. But the other thing we said is, and it also includes a full pass-through of any dividend received from Cathay Pacific. So again, in that piece, it's fantastic to see them paying dividend again. And that dividend and the business is moving to more normalized levels in terms of having that peak in 2023, but we still expect it to be very profitable in 2024. And so the combination of that makes me confident that we continue with our progressive dividend policy in that piece. And similarly, I think that we'll maintain -- we've got good strong cash flows coming through. And so I do expect gearing to be kept at very strong levels as well, very low levels at that sense.

Right. Next question, any from the floor? Great. With that, we'll wrap up our Q&A session. Thank you once again for coming to the analyst briefing. Have a great evening.