Swire Properties Limited (1972) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Swire Properties 2026 Interim Results Analyst Briefing. Joining us at today's briefing are Mr. Tim Blackburn, Chief Executive of Swire Properties; and Mr. Roy Shearer, Chief Financial Officer of Swire Properties. Tim and Roy will first take us through the 2026 interim results, then we proceed to a Q&A session. Before we start the presentation, let me first take a look at a short video on the company's key highlights over the past 6 months. Please enjoy. [Presentation]

I now invite Tim and Roy to take us through the presentation. Tim, please?

Great. Well, thank you. Thank you very much. I hope you enjoyed the video. It's been a busy first half of the year, but a very warm welcome, good afternoon to Swire Properties 2026 Interim Results Briefing. As usual, I'll take you through the highlights for the first 6 months of the year, the key developments and the progress we've been making with our HKD 100 billion investment plan. I'll cover some of the key portfolio updates. And then Roy will cover the financial highlights, our SD 2050 strategy and our sustainability achievements for the first half. And I'll close briefly with some comments on the outlook for the second half of the year, and then we'll take some questions. So our performance in the first 6 months of the year has been strong. We reported an underlying profit of HKD 4.9 billion, which is an increase of 11% year-on-year, thanks to the significant contribution from residential sales and the encouraging performance of the retail portfolio, both in Hong Kong and in the Chinese Mainland. Recurring underlying profit of HKD 4.7 billion increased by 36% year-on-year, thanks primarily to the sale of the 2 houses in Deep Water Bay and the resilience of the office portfolio, the positive momentum in the retail portfolio and the improvement in our managed hotels, all underpinned by the successful portfolio upgrades and the active capital recycling of noncore assets and the progress we're making with the HKD 100 billion investment plan. We've declared a first interim dividend of HKD 0.37 to HKD 0.37 per share in the first half of '26, an increase of 6% year-on-year, which is consistent with our commitment to enhancing shareholder returns and our aim to deliver mid-single-digit annual dividend growth and to paying out approximately 50% of underlying profit in ordinary dividends over time. And we're now approaching our 10th consecutive year of delivering sustainable dividend growth. So with a strong balance sheet and a healthy gearing ratio, the business remains on a solid financial footing. We're well placed to achieve our long-term growth targets, thanks to the active capital recycling strategy. We have a diverse, high-quality development pipeline across all our core markets, combined with a track record of strong execution capability in Hong Kong and in the Chinese Mainland. In terms of key developments, I'll just touch on some of the highlights year-to-date. So in accordance with the HKD 100 billion plan, we've continued to invest in the asset reinforcement of our office and retail portfolios in Hong Kong and the Mainland. In Guangzhou, our first Taikoo Li in the Greater Bay Area is progressing well. Beijing, we've successfully opened 5 luxury flagship Maisons, which has transformed Taikoo Li Sanlitun into culture and fashion landmark in the capital. And in Hong Kong, we successfully completed the sales order for 2 prime sites in Quarry Bay, which will be redeveloped into the next generation of high-quality office and commercial space in Taikoo Place. We're seeing strong demand for residential properties across all markets. Pleased with the market response to the Lujiazui Taikoo Yuan Residences in Shanghai, where we've now completed all 6 stages of the presales and achieving proceeds of over CNY 16 billion. Q1, as I mentioned, we completed the sale of the 2 luxury houses in Deepwater Bay for HKD 2.2 billion, and we're seeing good momentum at the Headland Residences on Hong Kong Island. We recently commenced the VIP presales for Upper House Residences in Bangkok and the presales of Mandarin Oriental Residences in Miami, which have now exceeded 60% prior to the groundbreaking in October. And finally, on the capital recycling front, we've continued to divest of noncore properties in Hong Kong, and we expect to complete the sale of 44th floor of One Island East to the SFC by the end of this year. So in terms of active capital recycling, I think this chart shows that we've got a good record -- a good track record of active capital recycling over the past 5 years. After a busy period in 2025, primarily with the divestment of the commercial portfolio in Miami, cumulative proceeds are now approaching HKD 60 billion, which provides liquidity to support the HKD 100 billion investment plan to improve our returns and drive long-term growth and support the progressive dividend policy. Since announcing the HKD 100 billion investment plan in the second quarter of '21, we've made solid progress with 69% committed across the 3 core markets. In the Chinese Mainland, we're on track to double our GFA, and we're focused on preparing for handover to tenants and multiple new openings scheduled over the next 6 to 12 months. In Hong Kong, we continue to evaluate long-term asset reinforcement opportunities at Pacific Place and Taikoo Place. On the trading front, we continue to develop a diverse pipeline of premium residential developments across all core markets, including in Southeast Asia. This slide just provides a bit more detail on the completion schedule for over 15 million square feet GFA of new projects over the next few years. As we enter what we refer to as the harvest phase, our immediate focus will be on the disciplined execution of the retail strategy in the Chinese Mainland with Sanya and Beijing in 2026 and in Guangzhou, Xian and Hong Kong in 2027. Looking further ahead down the line, we've got a diverse pipeline of residential projects in Hong Kong and Southeast Asia and in Miami, which will complete post 2028. So moving to the investment portfolio. Despite the improving sentiment due to the strong IPO pipeline, the Hong Kong office market remains oversupplied. Our portfolio has been resilient, which reflects the flight to quality trend and the overall occupancy has increased to 92% to reflect the prevailing soft market environment, but we are seeing evidence of a central-led recovery. And as occupancy in Central improves, we expect to be in positive reversion territory again as we head into the new year. The retail portfolio in Hong Kong continues to perform very well. Overall occupancy remains at 100% and retail sales were positive, most notably at Pacific Place and City Gare Outlets, which both achieved strong growth year-on-year. The attributable gross rental income improved and the attributable valuation for the overall portfolio also increased. Contribution of our Chinese Mainland portfolio has now increased to 46% of our attributable gross rental income. And notably, as you can see from the pie chart here, the contributions -- the rental contributions from the Chinese Mainland retail portfolio now exceed those from the Hong Kong office portfolio. Over the past 10 years, in terms of attributable gross rental income, we've delivered steady CAGR. Year-to-date, it's up 13% year-on-year and we anticipate an increasing contribution from our Chinese Mainland portfolios as we bring 5 new projects online over the next few years to double our GFA in the Chinese Mainland. So working in partnership with the core luxury brands, we've embarked on a significant phase of transformation and trade mix upgrading across all our existing malls in Shanghai and Beijing, for example, and together with an exciting pipeline of new Taikoo Li style open lane retail developments in Shanghai, in Guangzhou, Sanya and Xian, embracing cultural heritage, elevating local brands and reflecting local context. Across the Chinese Mainland, I think this chart is an important one. But across the Chinese Mainland, the malls have been extremely busy with exciting upgrades to improve the tenant mix and enhance the overall retail experience. We see positive signs of recovery. Overall, retail sales have grown by 23% year-on-year on an attributable basis. All our malls in the Chinese Mainland have reported high occupancy and strong sales growth. You can see from the chart, HKR Taikoo Hui, 82%; Taikoo Li Sanlitun in Beijing at 63%, significantly outperforming, attributable gross rental income was up 14% and the valuation up 4%. For the office, the performance of our Chinese Mainland office portfolio is resilient despite the market oversupply. Occupancy has been improving, particularly in Beijing and gross attributable gross rental income was up 3%. We're focused on the synergies with our mixed-use developments, focusing exclusively on core locations in Tier 1 cities in Guangzhou, Beijing and in Shanghai. So I mentioned a little earlier the entering this period we refer to as the harvest phase. Several of our new developments will be completed in 2026. And thanks to the $100 billion investment plan, we've laid these solid foundations for growth across the Chinese Mainland for premium retail-led mixed-use developments in Beijing and Shanghai. And we're looking forward to the opening in December of Taikoo Li in Sanya, which will be our first Taikoo Li in a tropical resort destination in Hainan. Moving to our residential trading portfolio. Across the core markets in Hong Kong, Chinese Mainland and Southeast Asia, we now have a very diverse pipeline of 9 projects under development, representing over 3.5 million square feet on an attributable basis with phased completions over the next 4 years. Presales for a 10th project, the Mandarin Oriental Residences in Miami are also progressing well with commitments proceeds exceeding USD 1.6 billion. A little bit more detail on this slide about the trading portfolio with regards to pricing and sales velocity. But just to highlight a few in Hong Kong, we're delighted with the sale of 6 Deep Water Bay in March for $2.2 billion. I think that at the time that reflected close to a record at HKD 150,000 a square foot. In Shanghai, the 2 tower -- the developments at Century Summit and Century Heights in Qiantan achieved presales of 98%, while Lujiazui Taikoo Yuan achieved record pricing for the sixth batch, our final batch at nearly HKD 192,000 per square meter and cumulative presales, as I mentioned, of over HKD 16 billion. In Hong Kong, Headland Residences were over 350 units presold. So momentum is picking up, reflecting the improving market sentiment. And in late July, we launched the presales of Upper House Residences in Bangkok, which is our first branded residence development for Swire Hotels globally. Lastly, this slide provides an overview of the diverse pipeline of trading properties across those markets, which will provide consistent trading profits from 2026 onwards. The performance of the hotel portfolio has been improving over the last 6 months, reflecting higher occupancy and improving RevPARs following the decision to unify all the properties under the Upper House brand. And the Swire Hotels team continues to explore third-party hotel management agreements, and we look forward to the opening of the Upper House Shenzhen in the middle of next year, followed by 4 new houses in the Chinese Mainland and Shibuya in Tokyo as well as the Upper House Residences in Bangkok. So on that note, I will hand over to Roy.

Thank you, Tim. So I will start with the financial highlights. So as you heard from Tim, in the first half of 2026, underlying profit increased 11% to HKD 4.9 billion and recurring underlying profit increased 36% to HKD 4.7 billion. This was largely due to the sale of the 2 residential properties at Deep Water Bay Road and higher rental income from the retail portfolio. The underlying profit growth was partially offset by the nonrecurring gain recognized in 2025 following the disposal of our interest in Brickell City Centre. In hotels, performance improved across all markets. Turning to rental income. Our investment property portfolio delivered a solid performance. Attributable gross rental income increased 3% year-on-year. But if you take out the impact of the Miami disposal, then like-for-like we were actually up 6%. Hong Kong office income remained stable despite negative rental reversions, supported by high occupancy and increased leasing activity. Hong Kong retail income increased 3%, driven by the continued recovery of the Mall at Pacific Place. All Hong Kong malls maintained 100% occupancy. In the Chinese Mainland, retail rental income grew 14%, driven by sales growth across all malls with 4 out of 6 malls delivering double-digit sales growth. We remain committed to creating long-term shareholder value through sustainable dividend growth. The first interim dividend has increased 6% to $0.37 per share. This puts us on track to achieve 10 consecutive years of dividend growth and reflects both the strength of our underlying business and our confidence in its long-term prospects. Our dividend policy remains unchanged. Our objective is to deliver sustainable annual dividend growth with a payout of approximately half of underlying profit over time. Turning to valuations. Our investment portfolio is valued at 272 billion, which is an increase of 1% from the start of the year. This increase mainly reflects CapEx on the portfolio and favorable FX translation gains from our Chinese Mainland assets. We also booked a fair value gain of $578 million this year -- this half compared with the first fair value loss last year of $6.1 billion for the full year 2025. So this change in fair value, together with some cap rate reductions in the Hong Kong office portfolio is an encouraging sign of improving market conditions and demonstrates the resilience of our assets. Our balance sheet remains strong. Net debt increased 2% to $40 billion, while gearing increased slightly from 14.6% to 14.8%. Importantly, leverage remains low and comfortably within the target range. Our weighted average cost of debt continued to decline, falling by 20 basis points to 3.3%, reflecting refinancing at lower funding costs and a general drop in interest rates. We continue to maintain a healthy liquidity position. Available committed facilities totaled HKD 60 billion with cash and undrawn committed facilities of around HKD 20 billion. Our debt maturity profile remains well spread and our funding base is also well balanced with around 2/3 of debt at fixed rates and 45% denominated in renminbi. Our credit rating remains unchanged with A2 from Moody's and A from Fitch. And finally, capital commitments stand at HKD 28.6 billion, including HKD 9.3 billion relating to joint ventures and associated companies. These are phased over several years with the bulk of the Hong Kong commitments after 2029. So to wrap up on the financials. Overall, our financial position remains very strong. We continue to deliver earnings and dividend growth, maintain a highly resilient balance sheet and preserve considerable financial flexibility for future investments. I will now turn to our progress on sustainability. So you saw in the video at the start that we've launched our SD 2050 vision and strategy earlier this year. And this advances our long-term commitment to put sustainability at the heart of our business and set a bold path to a new 2050 vision to build the world's most sustainable communities. At its core, we have 4 long-term commitments to zero, zero harm, net zero carbon, zero waste to landfill and water neutrality. These commitments are supported by 140 targets over the next decade, organized across 5 strategic pillars: people, places, partners, planet and performance. In the next 2 slides, I'll highlight some selected commitments and progress across 3 of these pillars. Under the planet pillar, we have made strong progress in both carbon and nature, and we're proud to be the first real estate company in Hong Kong and the Chinese Mainland to have our near-term, long-term and net zero targets validated under the new SBTi building criteria. We have also established targets covering whole building and use carbon and embodied carbon. For nature and biodiversity, we have developed a nature transition plan, which aims to stop and reverse biodiversity loss while supporting our placemaking approach. We're also the first company in Hong Kong and the Chinese Mainland to have our nature strategy recognized by its now for nature. Under the partners pillar, we're extending our impact beyond our own operations through working closely with both tenants and suppliers. Our green performance pledge continues to be well received by our office tenants. We now have 256 tenants signed up, which brings us very close to a 2030 KPI of 70%. On the retail side, our green retail partnership is also expanding with a target of 100 retail tenants, and we already have commitments secured from global leaders, including LVMH and Kering. And finally, turning to the performance pillar. Green financing remains our preferred funding strategy, and we're making good progress. 75% of our current financing already comes from green bonds and sustainability-linked loan, and we're targeting 90% by 2035. This shows how sustainability is increasingly embedded in how we allocate capital, how we maintain funding discipline and how we deliver long-term business performance. With that, I will hand back to Tim to cover the outlook.

Okay. Thank you. Thanks, Roy. Just a few comments on the outlook. We're seeing -- clearly, we're seeing positive momentum across the portfolios and our first half performance demonstrates that resilience. The office portfolio has been very resilient, enjoying higher occupancy and narrowing reversions, especially at Pacific Place. So as market rents stabilize, we see a gradually improving outlook for premium office space on Hong Kong Island. Thanks to their differentiated positioning in Hong Kong, our malls have maintained 100% occupancy with strong retail sales, and we will continue to upgrade the trade mix and invest in major events, loyalty programs and premium customer lounges to improve the overall experience for our retail customers. Our retail performance in the Chinese Mainland has been strong, and the outlook is positive as consumer sentiment continues to improve and the positive impact of our trade mix upgrading is further realized. As we look ahead into the second half of the year, we'll be focusing on disciplined execution as several new projects approach completion milestones and we enter the harvest phase. On the resi front, market sentiment in Hong Kong and Shanghai remains positive. We're seeing strong demand for high-quality prime residential developments across the portfolio. We'll continue to evaluate opportunities for active capital recycling and for continuous investment in our core markets to deliver enhanced shareholder returns. So in summary, we're making good progress with our $100 billion investment plan. We have a balanced and diversified portfolio with strong fundamentals. Our new SD 2050 vision provides a clear road map to improve our industry-leading ESG performance, and we are committed to delivering progressive mid-single-digit dividend for our shareholders. Thank you. So on that note, I think we'll some time for questions.

Yes. Thank you, Tim and Roy. [Operator Instructions]. First, gentlemen in the front.

This is Karl Chan from JPMorgan. I have 2 questions. The first question is on China Mainland China retail because I guess if we look at the overall retail sales in China, I think it started to soften in May. So just curious, is this something that you also see among your shopping malls in Mainland China? And then what would be your outlook on tenant sales in Mainland China in the second half of the year? That would be my first question. And then the second question is on Hong Kong office. So I think it's encouraging that the overall rental income is turning flattish. And then just curious in terms of rental reversion for both Pacific Place and Taikoo Place, when do you expect that it could potentially turn stable or neutral or even positive? So that would be my second question.

Thanks, Karl. On Chinese Mainland retail, I think -- well, I think we saw -- as I mentioned earlier, we saw a strong second quarter. And we continue to see, particularly in Sanlitun, strong, very strong growth in retail sales across -- for our Taikoo Li and Taikoo Hui retail malls. As far as sort of the midpoint of the year is concerned, that we see a relatively strong July. There's some variability. I think that's largely weather related, some very hot weather and some heavy rains in certain parts of the country. But certainly, retail sales continue to be healthy across the portfolio. I think you'll see maybe some normalization of our retail sales growth in HKR Taikoo Hui in Shanghai with the Lui is now cycling on a 12 months. So we'll start to see some normalization, but still a very healthy trend. And we're looking forward, I think with the plans to open the new Taikoo Li in Sanya end of the year, we're working very closely with the brands to capture that momentum in Hainan as well. As far as Hong Kong office is concerned, we see the negative reversions narrowing across the portfolio. We're seeing some positive growth specifically in Pacific Place. So to answer your question, I think in early 2027, we'll see some opportunities for positive reversions in Pacific Place. It will take a little bit longer in Taikoo Place.

Thanks, Tim. Next, in the front.

This is Cindy from Citi. I have 2 questions. The first is on the new retail asset at Chinese Mainland. So how is the ramping up of Julong Wan comparing with your internal expectations? Did any metrics exceeding your budget? And for the Sanya as you mentioned, you are working very closely on that. So is there any data you can share on pre-leasing rate? Or what's the strategy on overall trade mix and positioning? Has there been any anchor brands that you might be able to share with us for now? And which months do you plan for the grand opening actually? Second question, maybe for CFO, Roy. It's actually great to see you on the stage. So what is on top of your to-do list after taking office? Do you expect any shift in the overall capital allocation priorities? And noting that the HKD 100 billion plan is already near 70% committed. So do you see any potential change in the future deployment progress?

I'll take the first part. I think your question on Chinese Mainland retail, particularly on the new retail malls. We're very happy with the progress that the team are making in Guangzhou in Julong Wan. It's a fantastic site. In Phase 1, we have about 75% of the retail is open in Phase 1 as well. We're seeing very solid traffic numbers. And we expect that the opening rate will continue through the balance of this year. We're looking for some opportunities to introduce new brands. And I think certainly next year, we'll start to see the opening of some of the luxury brands as well. But this project still has some time to go. So Phase 1 is what we refer to as an activation zone rather than a formal opening of the mall. Because of its waterfront location, we're able to activate the F&B and a lot of the retail quite successfully. So we're happy with that. And I think it's very complementary to Taikoo Hui and the expansion in Xi'an. In Sanya, we're aiming for the soft opening in late December this year, and we're on track to achieve that. About 70% of the retail is committed. So we'll be opening with 70% in Phase 1. And then the grand opening is scheduled for Chinese New Year, and this is to really capture the peak season for tourism in Hainan. So both those projects are looking very exciting.