Swiss Life Holding AG (SLHN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Swiss Life Q3 2024 Trading Update Conference Call and Live Webcast. I'm Sandra, the Chorus Call operator. [Operator Instructions] The conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Matthias Aellig, Group CEO of Swiss Life. Please go ahead, sir.

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for dialing in and for your interest in Swiss Life. Today, we are reporting on selected top line figures for the first 9 months of 2024. We will focus, as usual, on fee income, premiums and direct investment income. I will provide an overview of today's key messages and our Group CFO, Marco Gerussi, will walk you through the segments. In the first 9 months of 2024, Swiss Life increased its fee and commission income by 6% to CHF 1.9 billion. All sources contributed positively. Gross written premiums, fees and deposits received increased by 4% to CHF 15.9 billion. Direct investment income grew from CHF 3.0 billion to CHF 3.1 billion, which corresponds to a non-annualized direct investment yield of 2.2%. The SST ratio at the end of September was around 205%. With that, I hand over to Marco.

Thank you, Matthias. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I'm pleased to walk you through our 9 months 2024 trading update. All group figures are in Swiss francs and figures for each business division are in local currency. All figures are unaudited and growth rates are stated in local currency. Let me start with our segment, Switzerland. Premiums increased by 1% to CHF 8 billion while the life insurance market was flat. Premiums in individual life grew by 8% to CHF 1.4 billion while the market increased by 1%. Periodic premiums were up by 2%. Single premiums grew by 19%, driven by a modern traditional product. Premiums in group life were stable at CHF 6.7 billion while the market decreased by 1%. Periodic premiums fell by 2%. Single premiums grew by 2%, mainly due to higher new business. Assets under management in our semi-autonomous foundations were at CHF 7.7 billion compared to CHF 7.1 billion at year-end 2023. Fee and commission income grew by 5% to CHF 252 million due to higher income from Swiss Life Select and the unit-linked business. Turning to our French, German and International segments that all report in euro. I will begin with France. Premiums increased by 12% to EUR 5.6 billion. Life premiums grew by 15%, which is in line with the market. Unit-linked share in our life premiums was 67%, while the market was at 37%. Life net inflows were at EUR 1.7 billion versus total market net inflows of EUR 21.3 billion. Health and protection premiums grew by 4%, driven by price increases. P&C premiums increased by 6%. Fee and commission income rose by 16% to EUR 416 million. More than half of the increase was due to unit-linked fee income based on higher average unit-linked reserves. The remainder was due to the banking business. Overall, we recorded continued high revenues from structured products. Let me continue with Germany. Premiums grew by 4% to EUR 1.1 billion, driven by modern, modern traditional and disability products. The market decreased by 1% due to lower single premiums. Fee and commission income rose by 10% to EUR 602 million, mainly due to our owned IFAs and the insurance business. The number of financial advisers remained essentially stable at 6,017. Turning to International. Premiums decreased by 7% to EUR 1.5 billion. We recorded lower premiums with private clients while premiums with corporate clients increased. Fee and commission income was down by 3% to EUR 283 million. Higher income from our owned IFAs and from private clients was more than offset by lower income with corporate clients, in particular, from elipsLife. As a reminder, the acquired elipsLife business was fully reinsured. We renewed and the new business is partially reinsured, and therefore, we see over time a shift from fee income to risk premiums as expected. Moving to Asset Managers, which reports in Swiss francs. As usual, the update in Q1 and Q3 focuses on commission income and does not include other net income from real estate project development. Asset Managers commission income rose by 5% to CHF 699 million. In our PAM business, commission income increased by 11% to CHF 263 million, driven by higher recurring and nonrecurring income. In our TPAM business, commission income was up by 2% to CHF 436 million, driven by higher average assets under management. Nonrecurring fee income, including negative FX translation effects slightly decreased. To make figures comparable to half and full year disclosures, the share of total nonrecurring income for TPAM, meaning commission income and other net income from real estate project development increased from 14% in the prior year period to 31% of total TPAM income. 3/4 of the total nonrecurring income in the current period relates to revaluation gains, which are noncash. For the full financial year 2024, we continue to expect the share of nonrecurring income to be around 30%. Net new assets in our TPAM business amounted to CHF 3.4 billion compared to CHF 8.4 billion for the first 9 months of 2023. We achieved net inflows in real assets of CHF 2.1 billion, thereof CHF 1.7 billion in real estate. Net inflows were CHF 1.1 billion in bonds and CHF 1.2 billion in money market funds. Excluding money market funds, net new assets amounted to CHF 2.2 billion compared to CHF 8 billion in the prior year period. By the end of October 2024, total net new assets amounted to CHF 4 billion, of which half was in real assets. We continue to expect total net new assets to be around CHF 7 billion by year-end 2024. Overall, assets under management in our TPAM business were at CHF 119 billion compared to CHF 112 billion at year-end 2023, driven by net inflows, positive performance and FX translation. Turning to our direct investment income. Direct investment income increased to CHF 3.08 billion compared to CHF 2.99 billion in the prior year period. Bonds, equities and real estate contributed more, but this was partly offset by lower income from alternative investments and negative FX translation effects. The non-annualized direct investment yield increased to 2.2% compared to 2.1% in the prior year period. As you know, real estate continues to be an attractive and important asset class for backing our long-dated liabilities in the context of our disciplined ALM, and we hold real estate because of the regular rental income it provides and not because of appreciation. Vacancy rates marginally increased from 3% at year-end 2023 to 3.1%. For the year-end 2024, we expect vacancy rates at this level. Fair value changes remained unchanged at minus 0.7% compared to half year. For the full year 2024, we continue to expect negative real estate fair value changes to remain in the range of minus 0.5 and minus 1 percentage point. Moving to solvency and cash. At the end of September 2024, our SST ratio was around 205% and therefore above our ambition range 140% to 10%. This compares to a level of around 205% at half year. Liquidity holding amounted to EUR 1 billion at end of September 2024. With that, I hand back to you, Matthias.

Thank you, Marco. Let me conclude. The third quarter of 2024, Swiss Life continued the positive development of the first half of the year. Growth in both fee and insurance business is broad-based. In terms of the Swiss Life 2024 program, we expect to exceed the return on equity and dividend payout ratio targets. In addition to that, we have already exceeded our cash remittance and share buyback targets. Regarding the fee result, we continue to expect to reach the lower end of our ambitious fee result target range of CHF 850 million to CHF 900 million. The results of asset managers over the first 9 months of 2024 give us confidence in this respect. Achievement of this target remains dependent on the further normalization of real estate market in Germany and France. To sum up, we are well on track with our Swiss Life 2024 program to exceed or achieve all our group financial targets. We're now ready for the Q&A session. Who would like to start?

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Ahmed Nasib from UBS.

Firstly, on the guidance on the fee result, the bottom end of the range, the CHF 850 million. You say there's further normalization in Germany and France real estate markets, and you've been consistent in that message. We've only got 6 weeks left until the full year '24. How confident are you in kind of achieving the CHF 850 million? There's not a lot of time left until full year '24. So just trying to get a sense of your confidence in achieving that? Second question also on kind of confidence around the CHF 7 billion net new assets, how confident are you? Of course, in September, you had net outflows of minus CHF 0.1 billion. And then finally, if I can add a third one on TPAM as well. How is the margin progressed versus last year, on the TPAM business side? It seems like with more money market funds, it is a little bit weaker. But any thoughts on that margin as well in TPAM.

Okay. Thanks Ahmed, for the question. I will go with the fee result, one; and Marco will go then for the two, regarding TPAM. And coming to the fee result, as you said, we have mentioned that we see ourselves on track to reach the CHF 850 million to CHF 900 million. And we are, as you pointed out, say this remains reliant on this further normalization of the real estate markets in Germany and France. And you may recall that a couple of quarters ago, we put forward a set of macro consideration that support the real estate market that was things like the interest rate cycle coming to an end, real estate funds, trading above NAV, higher interest from investors in real estate proposition and the like, and we see that happening. I think that's one comment I can make. And we also said that we expect to achieve a share of nonrecurring income of around 30% in TPAM for the full year 2024. And here, the results of asset managers, as Marco pointed out, over the first 9 months of 2024 give us confidence as well.

Okay. So I'm going to answer the -- your second question on -- that's on the NNA, I mean we have seen and just mentioned during the speech that by the end of October, we have CHF 4 billion NNAs in our accounts, half of it in real assets. So we see numbers are picking up, in particular compared to the CHF 1.1 billion we reported during half year. And given that development, given the RFPs, let's say, going around, our people are being very close to our clients and the underlying pipeline we have in that part of the business, that makes us quite confident for reaching the -- around CHF 7 billion by year-end 2024. And in between, for sure, there have been some plus and some smaller minuses. You just mentioned in your question, there were some in and some small outflows mainly due to FX effects. That is one thing and outflow, some smaller outflows in money market funds. But as I said, picking up already being at CHF 4 billion by the end of October. And then the third question you had in terms of the margin progress versus last year, I think there is a link which I just mentioned the half for real assets within the NNA, so mainly real estate and the infrastructure. I think overall, it's fair to say that securities in particular, so that's rather lower margin business driven by volumes in the real assets area we need to be close to the market, having a lot of extensive know-how, being close to the clients. I think that's a higher-margin business for sure. It's a competitive market. There is always some pressure on that. But overall, we are not concerned with that.

Can I just kind of get a follow-up on, are you seeing, from the sense I get from your answer is, money market funds to real assets, there's a trend in TPAM? Is that correct in my understanding?

No, I wouldn't say that. I think the always some swings in particular in money markets and in particular, by the end of the quarters when clients are reviewing their portfolios and allocating their assets. So I wouldn't say that's the trend. Absolutely not.

The next question comes from Amalie Dalsgaard from Deutsche Bank.

Yes. This is Amalie from Deutsche Bank. Thank you for taking my question. I just have 1. On Germany, I believe you were targeting 6,500 advisers by the end of full year '24. And I was just wondering sort of how you're progressing on that and sort of how you're thinking about that target for full year, especially given a number of advisers was around 6,000, I believe, at 9 months?

Okay. I may take this one. And you pointed out, we said more than 6,500 advisers in Germany. By the end of 2024, we have been reporting now something slightly above 6,000, and that is also consistent with what we have been reporting over the past quarter. So we consider that 6,500 to be out of reach for the year-end. I think what is more relevant is that on the fee result and the fee top line and I refer when it comes to the fee result, to the fee disclosure that this is a different thing, and it's at the end of the day, more relevant that we have the fee income and the result rather than the advisers.

Next question comes from Farooq Hanif from JPMorgan.

Just going back to fee income in France and Germany, which is really strong growth. What risks do you see this given what's going on in the world, volatility? In particular, I mean, could you just talk about some of the drivers? You mentioned in France, of course, unit-linked growing. But in Germany, given your advisers were relatively flat, is growing fee income, what are the drivers that have driven that? And what are the risks to it, given market?

I'm going to start with Germany. So where we have seen a 10% growth in the fee income. And I think overall, as Matthias just alluded to that. There is I mean, the advisers, the underlying advisers but also increasing our productivity, leading to that. But also we can say about the market itself, I mean, first of all, we have quite a resilient business model underlying that development. And on the other side, all the movements we see in particular, also let's say, the German, German government, some on security with the retirement model that the public retirement model in Germany as well. This is all pressure points for our customers, leading to the need -- the increase need and demands or some advice and that advice can be served by our advisory network and our own IFS, the advisory power we have. So at scale, that even helps to get in touch and to develop the business. And as I said, the resilient model helps, let's say, the global developments are not impacting our business. In France, where we reported a double digit. I mean, 16% growth now in the third quarter. I think it's fair to say that we had a very strong second half year '23 and a very strong first half year 2024, particularly coming in fee income from the unit-linked business and the bank. That is on one side, also a very resilient and proven business model behind that, private insurer model and serving those clients behind versus individuals in France. I think that helped to grow the business. And on the other side, for sure, the market development, so the performance of the underlying also helps, that's something we always said. I mean we are really strong and growing, that has some impact. But overall, I think the business model and the products we offer that helps. There is not that again or like in Germany, not that impact on the numbers -- in the numbers in France.

If I could just follow up. So in Germany, it looks like your actual discrete 3Q numbers were very strong. So just wondering what might be going on there, in particular in 3Q. But if -- but in France, the numbers are down in 3Q, it feels like the strong growth that you had in the first half is waning. Could you comment on those 2? And just maybe put us at ease on the trends for the full year in both France and Germany.

I think in Germany, there is some volatility in the numbers from quarter-to-quarter. We have seen a very strong first half year, in particular the first quarter, and it depends for sure, on the overall development, but I think it's more or less in line, maybe to some extent, a bit picking up now in the third quarter. And France, as I said, a very strong first half year, still 16%. So double-digit growth being dependent a bit also on the market environment. So it's nothing that concerns us. And in view of the year-end, I mean, we do not give a detailed guidance on that. But I think overall, the development is in line with our expectations.

Maybe to add on that, as Marco said, I mean, sometimes we and you shouldn't probably read too much into quarter discrete numbers because there are basis effects and things like that. One point that I may add also to what Marco just said, in France, we have talking about the structured product performance for quite a while, and there we really had also a strong H1 in 2024, I think something to keep in mind as well. And there, we talked about that many, many times before, it's really also the stock market performance that is, let's say, triggering or alter calling those structured products, and we have this, let's say, direct, let's say, linked to the stock market, if I may add.

[Operator Instructions] Gentlemen, so far there are no further questions. Back over to you for any closing remarks.

Thank you. This brings us to the end of the call. We look forward to seeing you in person at our Investor Day on the 3rd of December when we will present our new strategic program. Thank you for listening and for your interest in Swiss Life. Have a nice day, and goodbye.

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