Swiss Steel Holding AG (STLN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I'd like to welcome you to Swiss Steel Group's Media and Investor Conference Call on the occasion of the release of the 2023 half year results. The speakers of today's conference are our CEO, Frank Koch; and CFO, Marco Portmann. The slides for the presentation, which will follow immediately, the media release and the half year report 2023 has been made available on our website since 7:00 a.m. this morning. During the conference, the speakers will make forward-looking statements as described in the disclaimer on Slide 2. These statements are based solely on our expectations or forecasts of future developments and may differ materially from actual results, performance or achievements. I'll now hand over to our CEO, Frank Koch. Please, Frank.

Yes. And thank you very much, Burkhard, and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I would like to welcome you to our conference call today, and thank you for following Swiss Steel Group on its journey. I will be discussing the market outlook as well as the strategic aspects, while my colleague, Marco Portmann, will be discussing the financial matters there. Please let me begin with a summary of the main topics in the first half of 2023. As I'm sure we all know these past months have been heavily impacted by a challenging geopolitical and economic environment. In the first half year of 2023, we faced a decline in business activities, which was further exacerbated by the subdued demand from important end markets due to the economic slowdown. As a consequence, both incoming orders and order backlog experienced a decline, impacting our sales volume significantly, which closed 19.3% below the first half year of 2022. When we extended the broader landscape of German electric-arc steel production, which experienced a 13% decline in the first 6 months compared to the previous year. It become evident that our reduction is aligned with the prevailing market conditions rather than being an isolated incident unique to our group. After a prolonged period of price increases, the average sales price per ton of steel decreased in the first half of 2023, but remained higher compared to the same period of last year. Following the lower sales volume, revenue came in 13.4% lower compared to the prior year. We also faced the situation of write-down on inventory due to falling raw material prices. As you know, we have a surcharge system in place that aims to smoothen the effects of volatile input prices, but this time, due to the steep fall in particular, of energy prices, the effect was very notable. Further, Swiss Steel Group is in a strategic reorientation and restructuring phase, where the restructuring efforts result in additional costs. Addressing the manifold challenges, our team implemented several appropriate cost-cutting measures to mitigate the market effect. However, despite our best efforts, the adjusted EBITDA for the first half year of 2023 amounted to EUR 70 million, which was considerably below the first half year result of prior year and in summary, heavily impacted by first, significant lower demand and production volumes; second, price and cost pressure; and third, almost unavoidable write-offs on our inventory. Free cash flow for the first half year of 2023 was negative following the usual seasonality, but 64% above the prior year figure. Admit the complexities of the current geopolitical and economic environment, it has never been more vital for us to adhere to our strategic path. From the very beginning of our strategy program, SSG 2025, we knew that challenges would arise. We are adamant to that path of restructuring, and we know that this is the right way forward using 2023 as a year of transformation for our group. We are fully aware of the significant impact of the well-known circumstances of the past 2 years have somewhat slowed our program. Yes, it is precisely during the times of headwinds and uncertainties that our conviction grows stronger, staying through to our path is the key in order to ultimately unlock our success. As we turn to Slide 4, I would like to remind you our strategic program, SSG 2025, is built around 3 pillars. Resilience and profitability, customer centricity and reliability as well as innovation and sustainability. First, resilience and profitability. Comprised of structural improvement measures to increase our profitability and important levers for organic growth, which will be driven by our core segment and green steel. Given the current market conditions, the critical assessment of the future viability and potential of each of our entities has taken an even greater significance. As part of our SSG 2025 strategy program, we have proactively communicated our plan to divest several entities in Eastern Europe that no longer reflect our core business. We are diligently working to unlock transactional value through the anticipated proceeds from the sale of our Eastern European distribution entities. Moreover, we have achieved a significant milestone in the past few months with the successful approval of the restructuring program for our German entity, namely Deutsche Edelstahlwerke. This will allow us to reduce our workforce initially, excuse me, by at least 350 employees as a step towards a sustainably profitable setup, supported by additional significant savings. Further, this program involves splitting Deutsche Edelstahlwerke into 2 individually operating entities and significantly enhancing the operational efficiency. In the coming months, we will be dedicated to the meticulous implementation of these measures, driving the entity toward a sustainable and viable future. Further, we are deeply committed to cost and cash stabilization. Robust measures have been set in motion to fortify our financial position during the second half of 2023. This encompasses various measures, such as optimized personnel costs, reduced inventory and are meticulously evaluating other expense categories to strengthen our financial foundation. Of course, market responsiveness remains paramount. We have adjusted our production schedule to align with the evolving demand landscape, demonstrating our ability to adapt amid an uncertain outlook. Second, customer centricity, we are reshaping and strengthening our organization evolving from a collection of loosely connected companies into one integrated and actively managed Swiss Steel Group. The group-wide reorganization into our new operating model has been advancing steadily with our group function starting operations in the beginning of the year. This transition has allowed us to streamline and align our processes, ensuring increased efficiency and effectiveness throughout the organization. We are working towards completing this transformation by the end of 2023, including the introduction of shared services for well-known processes. Further, we are focused on the continuous optimization of our customer-centric sales organization within our 3 divisions: engineering steel, stainless steel and tool steel. The focus on our customers' needs remains at the core of our business strategy, enabling us to better serve in an evolving market. Our sales teams are committed to driving market activities through proactive engagement and dedicated efforts. Finally, our single-brand strategy is nearing completion. This strategic move further contributes to more collative and focused market approach as one Swiss Steel Group. Last but not least, the pillar innovation and sustainability. Our profound expertise in recycling and electric arc furnace technology, highest operational standards and use of energy from renewable sources has allowed us to reduce the carbon footprint of our products well below the industry average. Our commitment to sustainability and green steel production remains steadfast as we meet the growing demand for sustainably produced steel. The success of our initial customer engagement on long-term green steel commitments proves the increasing need for sustainable steel solutions in Europe and beyond. We are proud to have started our supplier engagement program with the carbon disclosure project, in short CDP, to transparently disclose our upstream carbon footprint, providing our customers with crucial emission data. Our efforts to ensure the availability of scrap for production, advanced recycling concepts and increase the utilization of green energy in our operations continue unabated. With [indiscernible] vision for our future, we have set an ambitious target of achieving net zero CO2 emissions by 2038, given the current legal and industrial conditions. As we turn to Page 5, we will have a look at external factors, starting with raw material and energy. During the first half of 2023, we observed various trends in the price of important raw materials for Swiss Steel Group. Our most important scrap type experienced an upward trend in monthly average prices until April 23, driven by strong demand from Turkey after the regional earthquakes in February and March. However, prices declined in May and June due to lower demand and tight supply. Overall, the average price for the first half of 2023 amounted to EUR 361 per ton, marking a 26% decrease compared to the prior year. The prices for nickel at London Metal Exchange followed a downward trend with intermittent interruptions in January throughout April and early in May. Macroeconomic factors, including interest rates, high fluctuations in the U.S. dollar exchange rate and increased supply from Indonesia contributed to the overall 12% decline year-on-year. High carbon ferrochrome prices in Europe showed an initial upward trend until mid-May, followed by a general downward movement. The average price for the first half of 2023 came down by 1% compared to the average price in the first half of last year. In the energy sector, European energy prices demonstrated fluctuations during the first half of 2023, with an overall downward trend. Initially, price increase in January, followed by a general downward trend and with some upticks in June. Factors such as increased natural gas inventories supported the downtrend, but prices remained volatile, on average, relatively high level. The European Commission's decision not to prolong emergency measures on the energy market contributed to the fluctuation. Now please turn to Page 6. In the first half year 2023, Swiss Steel Group's business environment was shaped by numerous factors, including the slowdown of the global economy and rising interest rates as a countermeasure to inflation. Our main customer segment, automotive industry and the mechanical and plant engineering sector continues to be negatively affected by the global distortion. In the automotive sector, semiconductor chip shortages have improved, but complete normalization remains uncertain. Light vehicle production in Europe during the first half of 2023 increased by 18% compared to the same period of last year, but remains 17% below pre-pandemic levels in 2019. During the initial 6 months of 2023, the German mechanical and plant engineering sector experienced a notable decline of 12% in order intake compared to the previous year. This decline was primarily influenced by a weakening global economic conditions and decreased investment demand despite the notable backlog in the industry sector. As we move on to Page 7, the subdued market environment continues to impact our shipments and order book. In the first half year of 2023, our order intake across all divisions was subdued, leading to a further decline in the order backlog compared to the second half of 2022. This was influenced by lower market demand, customer destocking behavior and the seasonal hesitation to place new orders before the summer break. The order backlog at the end of the first half of 2023 was 386 kilotons, significantly below the prior half year, but somehow adapted to a normal aforementioned market condition. At 756 kilotons, 19.3% less steel was sold in the first half year of 2023 than in the prior half year. Sales volume decreased in all our divisions with a strong decline observable in the tool steel division. Following several years of price increases, the average sales price per ton of steel decreased in the first half year of 2023. However, at EUR 2,460 per ton, the average sales price remains above the average price achieved in the same period of the previous year. This is due to an improved product mix with a higher share of stainless steel in the product portfolio, resulting also in higher alloy surcharges. As a result of lower sales volume, our revenue decreased by 13.4% to EUR 1,857.3 million. This decrease was spread across all divisions with the engineering steel division witnessing the strongest impact. That brings me to the end of Slide 7, and I will now pass the floor to my colleague, Marco Portmann, for the discussion of the half year 2023 figures. Please, Marco.

Thank you, Frank. Moving on to Slide 8, looking at our profitability. As Frank already alluded to, the ongoing challenging market environment had a significant impact on the results of Swiss Steel Group. After the decline in business activity towards the end of last year, demand in important end markets remained subdued in light of the economic slowdown amplified by customer destocking behavior. As a result, the sales volume declined in the first half year 2023, leading to lower revenue and profitability. As reported, therefore, we recorded an adjusted EBITDA of EUR 17 million in the first half of 2023 compared to the first half year of 2022 that was very profitable at EUR 171 million, fueled by rising input costs that were passed on to our customers. Besides the lower sales volume, this result was also significantly negatively affected by inventory write-downs triggered by the sharp decrease in energy prices in January, February of 2023, and by the decrease of certain alloys in May and June at the end of the first half year 2023 as well. On the right-hand side of the page, we show the bottom line, our net income. The reduced operational profitability amplified by higher financial expenses due to rising interest rates took its toll on the group results. For the first half year, we ended with a negative EUR 30 million compared to a positive EUR 74 million for the first half year of 2022 and a negative EUR 65 million in the second half year of 2022. On Page 9, we start with the top left chart with the development of our working capital. As we have stated before, [ the said ] increase until the end of the first half 2022 was mainly driven by higher prices for raw materials and especially for energy. During that period, the value of the inventory increased by approximately EUR 220 million, while the actual physical inventory in kilotons was essentially unchanged. In the second half of 2022, we have seen a stabilization of prices, which enabled us to achieve a reduction of our working capital towards the end of the year, supported by a planned lower activity through an extended winter break. Now in the first half year of 2023, we saw the usual seasonal increase but also a much lower working capital need compared to the end of the first half year in 2022. This is supported by the lower and more stabilized energy prices. Driven by usual seasonality amplified in the current market environment, we expect to significantly reduce our working capital for the third quarter, which brings me to the next chart on the top right. Our free cash flow in the first half year of 2023 is, to a large extent, the result of the movement in working capital. As a consequence, we recorded an outflow of EUR 63 million. Further development of our working capital will also be the key driver of our free cash flow in the second half year, and we are working towards reducing our working capital significantly amplifying the usual seasonal release towards year-end. Consequently, we expect the comparable free cash flow dynamic as you see depicted for 2022. Looking at our net debt development, shown in the bottom left chart, in line with working capital fluctuations, net debt rose again since the beginning of the year to EUR 942 million. Year-on-year, it remained fairly stable with an increase of EUR 6 million. However, given the decrease in profitability, leverage, which is net debt over adjusted EBITDA, increased to 8%. This is, of course, not a level and development we are satisfied with. It is a clear target to deleverage the company, which will require both operational measures as well as strategic actions. As mentioned before, we expect a significant decrease in working capital will [indiscernible] deleveraging in the shorter term. Moving on to equity in the bottom right chart. We recorded a decrease in the ratio from 22.2% at year-end 2022 to 20.6% at the end of the first half year 2023 due to the negative group results. In absolute numbers, equity fell by EUR 32 million from EUR 531 million to EUR 499 million. We now move to Page 10. Year-on-year, we saw a decline in crude steel production from 1,052,000 kilotons in the first half of 2022 to 925,000 kilotons in the first half year 2023, which reflects the overall lower demand. In the top right corner, we show the development of our headcounts that reportedly has come down steadily, reflecting the production adaptation due to this lower demand and our efforts to reduce the cost base. It is worth noting that we are on track for [ fifth ] consecutive year that we are recording a lower headcount for the full year, and we are taking bigger steps than before. As Frank mentioned, we are reducing our headcount at DEW by at least 350 employees, and we are working on additional reductions for [indiscernible] as well, which are developments that, of course, are not yet reflected in the 3% decrease reported year-over-year. CapEx spending, as depicted in the bottom left shows our usual seasonal pattern with lower investments at the beginning of the year. Given the current subdued demand, we do not plan to catch up to the level of [ EUR 115 ] million for the full year as seen in 2022. And lastly, in the bottom right corner, we show the effects of our transformation office. As we have stated already in 2022, and initially in 2020, we have a 5-year plan to achieve recurring EBITDA improvement of EUR 298 million. After 3.5 years, we continue to be on track, although the recent slowdown in activity is making it more difficult to achieve the economies of scale anticipated. For 2023, we are on track to achieve EUR 237 million versus EUR 244 million as originally planned. That concludes my part, and I hand back to Frank.

Yes. And thank you very much, Marco, for your report. Ladies and gentlemen, I would like to briefly summarize today's conference as follows. While the ongoing market downturn may test our results, it also provides us with the opportunity to showcase our resilience and adaptability. It remains crucial. We continue to navigate the challenging environment with a focus on both operational litigation and strategic determination. We are operating within a challenging market context, restructuring our group to position ourselves for more distinct and more improved participation in future growth compared to our past performance. Moving forward into the second half of 2023. Swiss Steel Group will continue implementing its new target operating model, streamlining functions, calibrating production assets and aligning the divisional sales organization to evolving market needs. The introduction of said services from dedicated functions will play a crucial role in benefiting from economies of scale and reducing redundancy, thus driving cost efficiencies and overall improvement across the entity. Our strategic focus remains on integration of our activities, both downstream and upstream along the value chain and executing our green steel strategy. The first half of 2023 presented challenges due to softening market demand compounded by geopolitical tension, high inflation rates and volatile energy crisis, we remain agile in adapting to market developments and taking further operational measures to secure the group's liquidity. While we foresee that volatility will persist, we would expect that business activity and our specific demand will improve towards the latter half of the year. On this basis, despite the challenging environment, economically and politically, we, for the time being, maintain our full year guidance of an adjusted EBITDA in the range of EUR 160 million to EUR 200 million.

We now hand over back to the operator for the Q&A session.

[Operator Instructions] We will take our first question from [ Charlie Fernbach ] from AWP.

You had -- on a net level, you had a loss in H2 '22. Another loss now in H1. Does this mean that you also will show a net loss in the full year '23? And when do you think will you be able to be back in black numbers. This is one question. If you allow a second one. You mentioned this 350 people, you will lower the workforce for with this German entity, DEW, and that more will come, how many -- how big will the number be to lower the workforce finally?