Türk Hava Yollari Anonim Ortakligi (THYAO) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Turkish Airlines Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]. I will now introduce our hosts to you, and they are Professor Murat Seker, the Chairman of the Board of Directors and Executive Committee; Metin Gulsen, the member of the Board and Executive Committee as well as the Chief Financial Officer; and Mehmet Fatih Korkmaz, Head of Investor Relations. Gentlemen, the floor is yours.

Thank you very much, Rob. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us. The second quarter of 2026 was marked by rapidly evolving geopolitical developments in the Middle East. This conflict, together with the resulting airspace closures, flight restrictions and elevated fuel prices created one of the most challenging operating environments, the airline industry has faced in recent years. While passenger demand across international markets remained broadly healthy, airlines were required to continuously adapt their operations amid an increasingly unpredictable environment. Against this backdrop, Turkish Airlines demonstrated the adaptability of its diversified business model and the flexibility of its global network. Our broad geographic footprint and agile execution enabled us to reach swiftly to changing conditions while maintaining operational continuity. Before turning to our financial results, I would like to briefly address the measures we implemented to navigate the recent volatility and preserve the resilience of our operations. Throughout the quarter, safety remained our highest priority. We continuously monitor developments across the region and adjusted our operations in line with international regulations and real-time risk assessments. Given the changing nature of the conflict, our operational and commercial teams worked to respond quickly to new developments, minimizing disruption across the network. At the same time, we leveraged one of Turkish Airlines' greatest competitive advantages, the flexibility of our global route network. Through disciplined capacity management, we tapped into opportunities while managing pressures from the conflict. At the height of the war, our Middle East operations were temporarily reduced to only eight destinations in three countries from 26 destinations in 12 countries. During March and April, our capacity in the region was reduced to approximately 60%. As operations gradually resumed from May onwards, the reduction narrowed down to approximately 30%. In response to the sharp increase in fuel prices, we channeled 58 weekly passenger and 61 cargo frequencies to high-demand routes. These destinations include Beijing, Shanghai, Singapore and Mauritius, among many others. In order to better align capacity with prevailing market conditions, we also decelerated capacity growth from our initial plan of about 8% to 1% through selectively reducing services on lower return markets. Alongside, we implemented a tactical commercial strategy to mitigate the impact of elevated fuel prices. Our actions include fuel surcharge adjustments, broadening ancillary revenue base and route level profitability management. Together with our fuel hedging program, these actions helped offset around 80% of the additional fuel cost pressure on profitability. Turkish Cargo also continued to demonstrate considerable flexibility during the period. Since the beginning of the conflict, we introduced more than 60 additional cargo frequencies across the network. These additional flights enabled us to respond quickly to changing trade flows and customer demand while further strengthening our cargo network. As a result, in the first half of the year, Turkish Cargo increased its volume by 16%. Our prudent financial management and a strong balance sheet provides us substantial headroom to navigate an increasingly uncertain operating environment. By the end of the quarter, our liquidity recorded at 36% of last 12 months revenues with continuing positive free cash flow. We also selectively invest in projects that support our long-term growth strategy. Construction of Rolls-Royce Engine Maintenance Center progressed as planned, while infrastructure investments across cargo, technique, catering and flight training are ongoing. More recently, we joined the SAFA fund, further supporting our long-term sustainable aviation fuel strategy and diversifying our supply chain. Now I would like to turn your attention to our results. In the second quarter, Turkish Airlines total passenger capacity increased by around 1% year-on-year, bringing the first half capacity growth to 5%. Between April and June, we carried more than 23 million passengers with a load factor of 84%, indicating almost 2 percentage points improvement annually. Despite the busy summer schedule and the challenges posed by the evolving geopolitical situation, in June, our on-time performance improved 3.5 percentage points annually and surpassing 86%. With this result, Turkish Airlines was among the best-performing airlines in Eurocontrol area. Passenger revenues increased by almost 15% compared to the same period last year, benefiting from robust demand from Asia and strong pricing across our network. As mentioned, cargo was another highlight of the year, delivering one of its best performances to date. Adapting to the shifting trade flows and our extensive network, its revenues increased by 58%, reaching nearly $1.3 billion, mainly driven by more than 40% increase in yields. Accordingly, our total revenues rose by more than 20%, surpassing $7.2 billion. Elevated fuel prices represented the most significant headwind during the quarter. To mitigate this impact, alongside fuel surcharge adjustments, we focused on improving operational and staff efficiency. These initiatives are expected to result around $320 million annualized benefit. Together with strong passenger yields and gains from our fuel hedging portfolio, EBITDA amounted to $906 million, corresponding to a margin of 12.6%. Despite a significant increase in fuel expenses, profitability came in above the upper end of the guidance range we communicated at the end of first quarter. Net income realized at almost $200 million, supported by the contribution from our investment portfolio. Looking ahead, forward bookings for the remainder of the summer season remain healthy with both passenger and cargo trends developing broadly in line with our expectations. Currently, passenger revenue yields remain elevated at high single digit and forward load factors tracking slightly above the year's levels despite the renewed fuel price risks. I will now pass the call to our CFO, Metin, to elaborate on our results and further provide insights.

Thank you, Murat, and good afternoon, everyone. As briefly outlined earlier by Professor Seker, the second quarter shaped by uncertainties related to the war in the Middle East, unprecedented rise in fuel prices and evolving overflight restrictions. While operating conditions gradually improved throughout the period, it required ongoing adjustments to our network. With disciplined management, we successfully redirected capacity towards stronger performing markets while maintaining connectivity across our system. As a result, our passenger capacity increased by around 1% year-on-year. Demand fundamentals remained supportive in the second quarter, reflecting the resilience of our diversified network. Although traffic patterns continue to change across regions, effective capacity deployment and healthy passenger demand contributed to a 1.8 percentage point improvement in load factor. This performance demonstrates our ability to align capacity with demand while preserving operational efficiency in a rapidly changing environment. We successfully implemented our direct sales channel strategy indicated by the 13 percentage points decline in direct sales ratio in just two years. Our new distribution platform, TKConnect, proved itself for better ancillary revenue generation, along with materially decreasing distribution cost by about $100 million annually. Turning to regional performance. Asia remained our strongest performing market during the second quarter. Demand continued to benefit from change in competitive landscape following the conflict in the Middle East as a portion of passengers shifted away from routes toward alternative routings. We responded by further expanding capacity across key markets, including China, Hong Kong, Thailand, among others. As a result, regions capacity increased by 7% compared to our initial plan, representing an 18% annual growth. This additional capacity was well absorbed by the market as indicated by 1.8 percentage point load factor improvement in the region. Australia also delivered another strong quarter where capacity increased by more than 10% year-on-year, while revenues grew by 43% with both Sydney and Melbourne performing ahead of internal targets. In parallel, we introduced a new product segmentation model across selected Far East markets. which is expected to enhance ancillary revenue generation as the rollout extends to additional destinations during the second half of the year. While gradually normalization is expected as Gulf carriers restore capacity, we remain well positioned, thanks to our extensive network and strong presence across the region. In Africa, load factor improved by 3 percentage points year-on-year to 79%. During the quarter, we refined our regional network by expanding underperforming routes and concentrating capacity on markets with stronger demand. At the same time, frequencies to Mauritius were increased to 10 weekly flights, while seasonal services to Seychelles resumed in June, allowing us to capture demand in high-yield leisure destinations. The operating environment remained mixed in Europe. Higher fuel prices and softer demand in certain connected markets to the Middle East required capacity optimization with selective frequency reductions and temporary road suspensions implemented. Still, transit demand remained supportive with business traffic from Northern Europe increasing by 10% year-on-year, accompanied by 6% improvement in yields. Similar trends we observed in Southern Europe, transfer traffic partially offsetting softer local demand. We also continued to strengthen our network through targeted expansion, including additional frequencies to Bucharest, Sofia and Cluj and Yerevan, while new services to Timisoara further enhanced our presence in the region. Following the increase in fuel prices, frequencies on some North America routes were reduced, allowing additional capacity to be redirected toward higher-yielding markets in Asia. The FIFA World Cup demand developed broadly in line with our expectations and contributed to our revenues. Although demand from the Middle East softened, most of the lost traffic was replaced by stronger passenger flows originating from Europe and Asia. In the second quarter, total revenues continued to benefit from both passenger and cargo operations. Passenger revenues increased by nearly 15% year-on-year, reflecting the positive impact of higher traffic volumes, yields and improved load factors. Our cargo segment once again demonstrated its strategic importance, building on the positive momentum established in recent quarters Cargo revenues increased by 58% annually, driven by constrained market supply and continued growth in e-commerce demand. Currently, as the world's largest air cargo carrier by market share, Turkish Cargo remains well positioned to respond quickly to changing market conditions. On the AJet side, we continue to strengthen the commercial performance of AJet during the second quarter, aided by healthy demand, network optimization and enhanced ancillary product portfolio. AJet's 8% annual capacity increase was mostly backed by the continued expansion of its international network. Unit revenue increased by 18% year-on-year across the network, reflecting the improvements in both domestic and international operations. At the same time, international load factor improved by 3 percentage points to 82%. Ancillary revenues grew by 75% annually, accounting for 15% of total revenues, up from 11% a year ago. This specifically highlights the growing base of high-margin products to AJet's business mix. Our focus remains on improving network profitability, optimizing aircraft utilization and further enhancing the customer experience through a broader range of ancillary products and digital services. When we look at our financial performance, the second quarter delivered substantial top line growth. Passenger revenues remained the primary driver backed by the robust underlying strength, while cargo continued to benefit from constrained market supply arising from the geopolitical developments and favorable demand conditions across key trade lanes. Conversely, elevated fuel prices and other cost pressures negatively affected our financial performance. As a result, EBITDA decreased by 40% to $906 million, corresponding to a margin of 12.6%. Supported by contributions from our investment portfolio. Net income reached almost $200 million for the quarter. Total CASK increased around 35% year-on-year, primarily reflecting higher fuel costs. Excluding fuel, unit cost growth was mainly driven by higher personnel expenses, which reflected headcount expansion, salary increases and inflation impact. The slower pace of capacity growth also increased unit costs through lower aircraft utilization. In addition, rescheduling of certain aircraft maintenance activities resulted in approximately 1.5 percentage points to the increasing CASK. Higher market prices weighed on fuel CASK during the quarter. Our hedging strategy provided some mitigation, although its impact remains limited due to sharp upward movement. Despite these headwinds, we remain focused on improving our operational efficiency and maintaining cost discipline across the organization, aiming to save up to $300 million throughout the year. Turning to our balance sheet. We generated around $250 million of free cash flow during the quarter, enabling an increase in on-hand liquidity to around $9.6 billion. Meanwhile, net debt increased to $1.2 billion, mainly reflecting ongoing fleet investments and currency impacts. Strong liquidity position provides us with meaningful financial flexibility at the current backdrop, reinforcing our resilience against ongoing market pressures and positioning us well to navigate future uncertainties. Looking ahead, visibility for the remainder of the year remains limited. In the third quarter, we expect passenger capacity to increase by 3% to 6% year-on-year, supporting a mid-teen increase in total revenues. We also anticipate a mid-single-digit increase in ex-fuel unit cost. Based on these assumptions, we expect an EBITDA margin of 20% to 25%. Given the fluidity of current environment, we stand ready to adjust our plans dynamically as conditions evolve. During the first half of 2026, we continue to improve full efficiency through more than 100 operational optimization projects, investments in new technologies and the ongoing renewal of our fleet. These initiatives resulted in fuel savings of 25,000 tons and prevented more than 78,000 tons of associated carbon emissions. Our progress was also reflected in external sustainability assessments and industrial recognition. We strengthened our position across several leading international ESG assessments, including achieving an EcoVadis Gold Medal and A rating from MSCI. Looking ahead, sustainable aviation fuel remains an important part of our decarbonization strategy. We have developed short- to long-term plans covering supply agreements and investment opportunities with a particular focus on domestic production capacity. In this context, we signed memorandums of understanding with Tupras, Calik Renewables and SOCAR, while our planned investment in DB Tarimsal Enerji is expected to support the development of SAF production facility in Turkey. Most recently, we joined the SAF Financing Alliance Fund, expanding our access to international SAF financing and investment opportunities. With this, we conclude our presentation and continue with the Q&A session. Thank you, gentlemen.

[Operator Instructions] I hand you back now to the hosts for the answering of those questions. Gentlemen?

Thank you, Rob. This is Fatih, Head of Investor Relations. I would like to thank all of our participants, Murat Bey and Metin Bey for their comments. It was indeed a very difficult quarter. Now Murat Bey will help us underline the main drivers of the quarter. We got a number of questions from our dear participants, and I would like to start by the impact of the war. First question is, what was the impact of the Gulf war on your first half results?

Thank you very much, Fatih. Well, let me start with the capacity. As also mentioned during the presentation, we were intending to place a capacity of about 8% ASK-wide on the top of last year. However, now we are guiding somewhere around like about 4 percentage points. So in the second quarter, in particular, we were about 6% below our projected capacity. Yet part of that impact was compensated with the 3.5 percentage points higher load factor. So when you translate this into numbers, our passenger revenue was about $600 million higher than what we projected before the war. That translates into a yield improvement of about 8%. And cargo similarly was up by $600 million. So overall, $1.2 billion revenue increase was realized during the war with the better yields and better load factor environment. On the expense side, of course, the biggest impact came through the jet price increase. The roughly 90% increase in jet fuel translated into about $1.3 billion worth of higher fuel expense together with the crack spread. Then we had higher-than-anticipated inflation, which also is related to the impact of this war. But in the first half of the year, we were guiding of an about 10% to 11% inflation in Turkish lira CPI. It ended up being about 18%. So it's 8 percentage points higher inflation and Turkish lira remaining stronger than our anticipation led to a Turkish lira related higher cost burden of about $450 million. The last factor was the lower utilization. Middle East region makes about 6%, 7% of our overall capacity. And despite of the fact that we could redirect a significant portion of this capacity to some other parts of the world, some other parts of our network, the aircraft utilization was lower about like a 9%. So this also led to about like $150 million to $200 million additional loss. When you combine all these impacts, the net negative impact of the war, some benefits that due to the higher yields and then the cost burden from the jet fuel, the inflation and lower utilization, net impact of the war was around $900 million in the first half of the year, which then we further tried to decrease by taking certain measures on cutting the costs, improving efficiency. And then it brought us to on the operations side, a negative $120 million, which was the limiting impact of all these positive steps we took.

Thank you, Murat Bey. Obviously, the operating environment is quite dynamic and our analysts are wondering about the operating environment. Could you update us on the status of your operations in the Middle East?

So before the crisis, we were actively operating in 12 countries and more than about 28 destinations. Currently, we are flying to 14 of these destinations out of 28 in 9 countries. And then we are having about 300 weekly frequencies. Before the war, it was about 400 weekly frequencies. Iran is still shut down. Kuwait, Erbil, Bahrain are also shut down temporarily. And yes, overall, we are having about 300 weekly frequencies. In terms of ASK, compared to last year, in the overall first half of the year, we are about 28% below last year's traffic numbers.

Thank you, Murat Bey. How did you manage your capacity deployment across regions due to the war?

Since the beginning of the war, we secured about close to 100 new passenger and cargo slots. 38 of these are permanent and 61 slots are temporarily obtained, which allowed us to allocate capacity more efficiently and profitably across the network. We saw a little bit of a demand decrease in America, Middle East corridor. That's why flights to and from the Americas, mainly North America was reduced by 17 weekly frequencies, but this capacity was shifted to Far East region, about 33 additional frequencies and Africa region where they remain continue to be strong. Overall, though, there were certain Africa routes, certain middle South Asia routes and even some domestic and European routes where the demand was very weak and we were making losses. Overall, in the second quarter, which will continue to the remaining part of the year, we cut 450 frequencies. And as I said earlier, with the addition of about 100 additional frequencies on net, we have cut about 330 frequencies in total.

Your capacity in North America declined slightly, whereas overall capacity growth decelerated from 5% to 1%. Are the frequency decrease in the Americas is a temporary adjustment driven by the market conditions? Or does it reflect a more structural shift in the network strategy? Additionally, what is your expected capacity growth for the overall network?

So U.S. actually in the second quarter, as it was presented, is mildly flattish. But if you look at the first half of the year, we have added about 1.5% capacity on top of last year. So we have not really completely shrunken the capacity, but we have readjusted the frequencies. And this is definitely temporarily because one of the main networks which was in and outbound from the Americas was Middle East, and that region was heavily affected in the second quarter. On the other hand, there was a very strong demand, two ways, outbound and inbound to Far East, then South and Central Asia regions. We had to readjust the capacity to better utilize our wide-body fleet. So overall, this is a temporary decrease. Overall, not only, of course, the war, but in Venezuela, we also had to cut frequency because of the earthquake. We are aiming to bring this capacity, these frequencies back to the U.S. market in next year, especially when we will be receiving quite a few wide-body aircrafts. So we view these changes as temporarily technical adjustments rather than a structural decrease in Americas capacity, we very firmly believe that Americas, both North and South, are strategically very important markets. Then we don't expect further changes to our capacity plan over the coming quarters. The network-wise, our annual capacity growth plan is around 4% overall. This represents 2.5 percentage points improvement compared to the guidance that we provided at the end of the first quarter. So still, capacity growth is down by about like 5 percentage points compared to our budget, but we are seeing improvement. And as we see improvement in the market, we are doing our best to put capacity.

Thank you, Murat Bey. Following the recent capacity reductions by some carriers in Middle East, have you observed an increase in passenger numbers on your network? And we also have an additional online question. Do you expect the competitive dynamics in the Middle East to remain favorable in the third quarter?

Sure. Well, we experienced a shift to our network due to the absence of the Gulf carriers. At the very beginning of the conflict, there were some stranded passengers in their destinations that could not travel, but it did not last long. Then we saw that our peers in the Gulf region resumed their operations through the past months, and we entered the summer with almost having the full capacity of our peer carriers from the region. But overall, we saw some, of course, some net impact on growth in our prospective passengers. In the, we can say that like a 5% a net growth in our customer base, there are passengers, 5% of our passengers are first-time passengers that flew with Turkish Airlines since March of this year. In the reasonable flight corridors, we are seeing an improvement on our passenger base compared to our competitors, so which shows that we have been able to gain some market share. It's a mild but still a positive amount of market share gain through this period. But compared to their pricing and their involvement, I could say with the Gulf carriers, we are back to where we were before this war escalated. We expect for the remainder of the year, we are expecting a gradual normalization in the overlapping routes with our peer Gulf carriers. Based on the current forward booking data, the growth trends in demand from Africa to Far East and from various parts of Europe, North and West Europe to Far East, from South Europe to Far East, and vice versa remain quite strong in the market, in our customer base. For example, from Africa to Far East, we saw a 70% increase in the number of passengers. From North Europe, North and Central Europe to Far East, we saw about 38% increase in number of passengers and with reasonable yield improvement as well. Fatih, what was the second part of your question?

Does the dynamics in the Middle East remain favorable for the Turkish Airlines in the third quarter.

Okay. So I think I answered that. I would not call it like a favorable. It's the same level of competitiveness, competitive market what we were seeing last year or in this year before the war.

Thank you, Murat Bey. Next quarter will be on the revenue side, to be honest, we have been highlighting the robust demand environment for some time now, especially on cargo. But again, overall, total revenues rose by around 20%, 21% in the first, second quarter. Which measures have you implemented on the revenue side to achieve this in response to surge in fuel prices? And do you have any idea about the evolution of the ticket pricing?

So the first response at the very early months of the crisis was to close certain lower fare classes on specific routes where demand was holding up. Then we started to increase the fuel surcharges across the network. I think at the first stage, like in April, we increased in about 50 routes, the fuel surcharges by about like 10%, 15%. Then we expanded this to more than 100 routes. So incrementally, we were able to increase the ticket prices throughout the network, which translated to somewhere about $400 million additional revenue. Overall, the yield RASK unit revenue was up by about 8%, 9% levels. Furthermore, we looked into the ancillary revenue items and about like 10 to 15 different ancillary segments, we increased the prices, and it also corresponded to somewhere around $150 million additional revenue and combined benefit of these actions that we implemented in the second quarter was around more than $700 million compared to our budget. And considering the about 8% lower capacity, this was quite supportive of our bottom line. Together also with cargo, when you include the high load factor and high-yield environment of cargo, we were roughly able to reflect 8 percentage of the fuel expense increase on the revenue in the second quarter of this year.

Thank you. Murat Bey, I think we got a question from a football fan. Could you comment on the impact of the World Cup on second quarter performance?

Honestly speaking, the net benefit was lower than what we expected. Of the 16 cities, the game were played, we were directly flying to 11 of them. And then, of the 16 cities, we were flying to 12 cities. And then we added about more than 10 frequencies in the cities during the tournament. And the bottom line contribution was a very mild of $5 million to $6 million additional revenue.

Is it possible to provide color on current booking trends for the third quarter and for the remainder of the summer season? And do you have any anticipation about next year's yields?

For the third quarter booking across the network, we expect the capacity to increase around 3% to 5% while the load factors are in line with last year. Current yields are, currently, we are seeing that the yields in the third quarter are still up by about like 6% to 8% levels. The strongest region is continuing to be Far East. We expect about 15% to 20% capacity increase in this region, accompanied by about 8% to 10% higher yields. And following that, South Europe booking trends are continuing to improve since the beginning of the summer season, end of June and beginning of July. Third quarter bookings are around 4% above last year. Then in Eastern Europe, bookings are up by about 16%, we have put about 16% higher capacity and the load factors are also holding up. So overall, the third quarter performance is going well. The yields through, I could say, not only August and September, but continuing until October and November, we are seeing that the yields are up by about 15% as compared to last year. So the high-yield environment is likely to last through the remainder of the year, but the visibility is still not too long. We are seeing some erosion in the load factors towards the October and November months. Overall, I could say like a region by region, in Europe, the yields continue into the fourth quarter as well, third and fourth quarter together jointly in the second half of the year. In Europe, yields will be up by about like 5 percentage points in Europe, Far East, as I said earlier, high single digits. And Americas, again, like a mid-single digits. Overall, I think 6% to 7% yield improvement together with about a 3 percentage points capacity improvement is what we are expecting for this year. For your question about the next year yield environment, I think we have to see the end of summer and how this escalated tension and high fuel prices are going to turn out will lead us to the last quarter of this year.

We have been getting this question a lot in the recent times, especially after the war. What about the demand in Turkey evolving? And are you observing any signs of slowdown?

So right after war, March and April, we saw some drop. And unfortunately, it overlapped with the Easter and then the East holiday period, we saw some drop in demand. But then as the tension of the war impact on Turkey decreased with the start of the summer season, we saw the kind of that negative impact vanished. Our tourism incoming tourists to Turkey, the statistics was announced recently by Turkish Statistical Agency. Overall, last year, we had about 31 million passengers traveling to Turkey. And this year, it was very much the same number. The international tourists number shrunk by about monthly 2.5 percentage points from, it went down from 26.3 million to 25.7 million tourists, international tourists. But including the Turkish citizens, ethnic travelers who live abroad and traveling to Turkey, we see that overall numbers is around 31 million, and it has not come down. The impact on Turkish Airlines, in particular, because of the cancellations of some services from the competing airlines, we saw that in the first half, international travelers flying with Turkish Airlines to Turkey increased by about almost 7%. So we have seen overall a little bit of a benefit of that. And when we look at the forward bookings, we see that the demand to Turkey seems to be resilient. Incoming packs with Turkish Airlines to domestic to Turkish market is about 12% more tickets and about 17% higher revenue is what we are seeing for the Turkish market.

Are your peers reporting a significant resilience in premium cabin? And what is the situation on your operations?

So on the premium business class, especially after we have started, increased our operation to the Far East countries, we see that the business class load factors are up and then the yield environment is also up. The business class load factor was about 3 percentage points higher. The increase in business class load factor was 3 percentage points higher than the economy class load factor. And then the yield was about, again, similarly, 3 percentage points higher than last year. So this, especially on the long hauls, Far East, outbound and inbound, we are seeing a strong demand. I think it's fair to say that we are having a record amount of load factor, about 60%, 65% at our business class segment.

Turning to cargo. Cargo yields rose remarkably in the second quarter. How sustainable do you believe the current levels are? And what is your outlook for the second half of the year?