Türkiye Sise Ve Cam Fabrikalari A.S. (SISE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
November 22, 2021
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorLadies and gentlemen, welcome to Sisecam audio webcast. I will now hand over the call to Sisecam's CEO, Mr. Görkem Elverici, please go ahead.
Mustafa Elverici;Turkiye Sise ve Cam Fabrikalari AS;CEO
executiveSo good morning and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, depending on the respective time zones. Welcome to our conference call. Today, I'm together with our CFO, Mr. Gökhan Güralp and our IR Director, Ms. Hande Özbörçek. We have organized 2 conference calls today, one we already held in the morning and the other one, which is this one, that is for the late afternoon to reach out to all of our investors in different time zones to respect all our investors. The purpose of these calls is to inform the markets regarding the deal we announced on the weekend. And I will give you a short presentation on the merits of the deal. And after we will open the floor for your questions. And also, we will be providing the questions raised in the morning session and the answers we provided to that so to respect all our investors are on the same line. So please be reminded that our presentation and the Q&A session may contain some forward-looking statements, and our assumptions and projections are based on the current environment and thus may be subject to change. For Sisecam, this is a landmark deal, which we have intended for since we started developing Pacific Soda ash project with Ciner Group around 2 years ago. When all phases are completed, we will be one of the largest, if not the largest soda ash producer in terms of managed capacity. So let me start with Slide 4, where you can see the summary of the deal. We are increasing our stake in Pacific from 50% to 60% and acquiring 60% stake from Atlantic for a total of $150 million. We are also acquiring 60% of the controlling stake of Ciner Resources for a total of $300 million. While Ciner Resources has 2.5 million tons of annual soda production, Atlantic and Pacific each will have 2.7 million tons of annual production capacity, which will be, in total, roughly around 5.5 million tons. We applied to the Competition Board, and we expect to get the authority approval in 30 or 60 days, in line with the regulations in place in U.S. Altogether, we will manage a total of 8 million tons soda production capacity in the U.S., where more than 90% of global low-cost natural soda capacity is located. We will be operating the lowest cost capacity in the region. And please note that with these transactions, Sisecam will manage 40% of the global plant capacity expansions in the next 5 years. As far as our balance sheet is concerned, including other growth projects we have already announced or are placed in our 5-year strategic plan that has been recently updated in glass production operations and scheduled called repairs, we expect our consolidated net debt to EBITDA to peak around maximum at 2x in 2024, which is considerably lower than our comfort zone of 2.5x. And we will sustain net long FX position throughout, thanks to ringfencing the debt raised for investments in U.S. Starting from 2026, 2027, revenue share of hard currency will stay on the north of 70% on a sustainable basis and majority of these hard currency revenues will be generated from developed markets. Moving on to Slide 5. With our partners, Ciner Group, we will be investing $4 billion to develop Atlantic and Pacific projects in the next 5 years. As you may recall, our share in Pacific project investment was around $1 billion previously. An additional $1.4 billion will be in place for the development of the 2 projects included in this deal where we will have 60% stake. So our total share for these investments will reach up to $2.4 billion. Majority of the spending will be made in the next 3 years starting from late 2022 going on until 2025. Once Atlantic and Pacific operations reach full capacity in 2027 and 2028 and as it is already the case for Ciner Group, we expect to generate $1 billion to $1.2 billion EBITDA with 70% free cash flow conversion. Our stake adjusted EBITDA is going to be roughly around $0.5 billion, $0.6 billion in 2027, 2028, close to our current run rate consolidated EBITDA of $0.8 billion. We calculate the deal multiple around 5x EV over EBITDA with the current baseline scenario. Peer group with similar cost of equities trade close to 8x. Please note that this is the maximum level of details we can share for now as Ciner Resources is a public company, and we respect all the regulations that are in place for all the geographies we operate in. As we can see on Slide 6, we are calculating a minimum of $3 billion NPV with around 12% to 15% IRRs from these projects with a considerable upside potential. Construction is likely to start before the end of 2022 and production at Pacific is planned to start before the end of 2025, while the first production at Atlantic side is foreseen in 2026. Both sides are expected to be fully up and running in the second half of 2027. It is important to note that Ciner Resources' current EBITDA is lower than pre-pandemic level. Taking 2019 as a baseline, it is calculated that Ciner Resources can finance up to 30% of Atlantic and Pacific project's equity need that will be put by Sisecam. Once again, this is all the details I can share with you about our business plans at the moment. Detailed investment plan and associated projections will be agreed by the partners and will be provided to you before the end of 2022. Now I want to touch upon the transaction rationale. So let me start with Slide #8. You can see the secular demand growth of 3% provided by IHS, one of the most respected third-party information providers in the field of soda ash. Given that glass industry is the largest industry that soda ash caters to, and we are one of the largest global players in this area, demand forecast of our own companies as well as our peers give us enough comfort in this projection. Moreover, environmental applications are growing 8x faster than conventional soda consumers. In 2024, their share in total soda consumption is expected to be around 7% according to IHS and IHS had to revise this forecast up by 70% from only 2019 to 2021. And for pricing, as you can see on Page 9, soda ash prices are very stable, more stable than any other major industrial commodity. Plus more than 80% of the sales volumes are made with pre-agreed prices. So thus, the top line is very predictable, much more predictable than any other businesses we operate in. We see the ESG theme changes our sector -- changes our sector dramatically, and we are taking our position accordingly. There is a clear shift to natural soda from synthetic given the former is significantly more environment-friendly than the latter with 60% lower energy usage and 85% lower water usage in the production. At Sisecam, sustainability is engraved in our DNA. And we know that we must take the responsibility to be a pioneer in adapting all aspects of our businesses to be better aligned with the future of our world. Enlarging our soda ash production by more than 4x through the inclusion of natural soda is therefore a very important step. With this move, we will also be meeting growing soda ash demand for environmental applications such as lithium batteries, solar panels and flue glass. Having highlighted the ESG advantage of natural soda, another main upside is driven by pricing. So please have a look at Page 11 with me. IHS revised its forecast for soda ash prices recently, and now the institution predicts around 23% average price increase in 2022. If materialized, and most probably it will, it is going to be one of the largest price increases that the industry has seen over the past decade. Equally important, we expect price increases will continue in the coming years due to carbon taxes in Europe. Based on current forecast, cost for an average synthetic producer is expected to further increase by almost 15% after 2025. This is mainly due to energy intensity of Solvay methods used widely by synthetic producers. As illustrated in the table at the bottom left on the page, unit energy costs spent for natural soda is almost 1/3 of synthetic soda. In summary, in the new world that is influenced by ESG themes, natural soda has a significant cost advantage versus synthetic. Hence, we are expecting considerable increases in soda ash prices going forward, and we are getting very well-equipped for it with these investments. Moving on to Page 12. I would like to underline that Sisecam has decided and took the necessary steps to become a strategic soda ash producer and investor. For this reason, we needed to be in the heart of natural soda resources, which is Wyoming. This was also the vision behind our first move, acquiring 50% stake in Pacific Project 2 years ago. We have studied, learned and verified every detail of the project over time. And now we feel ourselves very comfortable to manage the entire asset base. As mentioned before, please note that these are not new projects for Sisecam. In fact, we have intimate insight in the entire base now. In addition, we have long-term plans to enter the U.S. glass market. And we hope and believe that our soda ash investments will not only pave the way for a smooth entry into these markets, but also will create differentiated advantage to penetrate further into U.S. markets with our glass business segment. Comparing Atlantic/Pacific projects with existing Ciner Wyoming sites or other producers producing with gallery-type mining, they will have a cost advantage that is mainly driven by lower unit labor cost. Thanks to the solution mining technology, Atlantic/Pacific will operate with the same headcount of Ciner Wyoming, but will produce 2x the output. Once reached full utilization, we expect Atlantic/Pacific unit cost to be almost 35% lower than already very cost competitive Ciner Wyoming site. Equally important, Atlantic/Pacific will utilize Ciner Wyoming's existing infrastructure. Rail infrastructure, treatment facilities, cogeneration plant and other existing assets of Ciner Wyoming will help us to reduce the total investment amount in Atlantic and Pacific. The total synergies are currently seen to be beyond 5% of the total investment budget. And moving to Page 13. We are on the way to becoming one of the largest soda ash producers in the world with lowest cost and ESG friendly natural soda happen in the U.S. In the next 5 years, we will be building more than 40% of the global planned new soda capacities. We are already selling to major soda ash consumers in the world working with their global procurement teams. So we don't expect any hurdle on deploying this capacity. On the contrary, with an expected market share beyond 10%, we will be one of the key players in the market. After this transaction, Ciner Group will also remain among top 3 global soda ash producers thanks to their already existing investments in Turkey. I would like to skip key assumption slide on Page 15, and this is a slide that we prepared just to help our analysts and investors with their financial projections. And finally, on the appendix section, you may see the accounting principles we will use to consolidate the assets we will start managing prior to the closing of the deal and the projected shareholding structure. Dear investors and analysts community, now that I completed sharing my comments and the slides with you, and before we start the Q&A session, we would like to communicate the questions and respective answers of the morning session.
Mustafa Elverici;Turkiye Sise ve Cam Fabrikalari AS;CEO
executiveFirst question, could soda ash extract with solution mining technique be used to produce all types of glass products? Is the consumer industry breakdown of soda ash produced with solution extraction method in the U.S. and in the global arena is similar to soda ash output of gallery mining or synthetic techniques? The answer was the output, the product and the client industries are perfectly the same. The only difference is in relation with the production technique and solution mining has the cost advantage. Second question, would this investment cycle have an effect on the dividend policy or the share buyback program? The answer is U.S. investments will not have any considerable effects on our dividend policy or buyback structure program. They will be decided based on their own criteria, not depending on this investment. Third question, considering the upward trend in the soda pricing environment, should we expect a price increase in line with IHS 2022 forecast in your existing businesses. The answer is we have already started the discussions and negotiations on 2022 contracts with soda ash client, and we are experiencing similar moves in the market in line with IHS report. As the negotiation process is still ongoing, we may provide a more clear price change guidance in 2021 year-end webcast. Another question is, do you have any other expansion plans in the U.S.? And the answer was, we expect U.S. to be more in the radar of Sisecam starting from 2020, and we will be considering to penetrate in differentiated segments by production in addition to higher export volume from differentiated geographies around the world. Having a lot of soda ash production capacity available will create differentiated advantage to penetrate further into U.S. markets with our glass production business line. Another question, should we assume the expected EBITDA generation of $1 billion to $1.2 billion as the sustainable EBITDA of the U.S. deal going forward in 2026, 2027? $1 billion to $1.2 billion of EBITDA generation can be seen as a sustainable level, which may have an upside potential considering the steps taken in relation with ESG theme, which may be more visible on the product pricing in the coming future. Another question, what are your plans about domestic sales and export during the ANSAC transition? Being the first company announcing the cease of membership in ANSAC Association enabled Ciner Wyoming to better position itself to get prepared for the era without the presence of ANSAC Association. Ciner Wyoming had already entered into multi-year contracts, especially with domestic customers that typically has better margins than compared with the export business. Hence we are in a more comfortable position for the upcoming couple of years, and we do not expect to have issues in finding the right locations with good pricing for the already existing Ciner Wyoming capacity. We are also feeling quite comfortable in finding a balanced domestic and international sales portfolio for the capacity additions considering 5-year demand growth expectations. Another question, is $300 million purchase price for 60% of Ciner Resources, effective stake of 23%. It's just the cash payment or total enterprise value, including the net debt of Ciner Resources? And the answer was it is the equity value. Now we can move forward with the additional Q&A session and proceed with the questions that you may have.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Aytunç Uz from Ata Invest.
Aytunç Uz
analyst3 questions, if possible. So the first question is, you are buying 60% of Ciner Resources Corporation, which owns 74% of Ciner Resources, the public company. Is there any other assets in Ciner Resources Corporation besides the 74% of Ciner Resources? Second question is, as far as I understand. And if you assume the only asset in Ciner Group Corporation is Ciner Resources, effectively, we are buying 44% of Ciner Resources, the public company at $300 million, which means we are valuing Ciner Resources, the public company at $676 million. Considering Ciner Resources trades at $376 million market cap. I calculate an 80% premium. What is the justification for this premium? And I understand that there is $1 billion to $1.5 billion value creation is expected from Atlantic and Pacific investments. How much value creation do you expect from Ciner Resources acquisition? The third question will be, will you finance this $450 million deal from your cash and cash equivalents? Or will you use debt as well? My last question would be, can we talk about the EBITDA margin difference between natural...
Mustafa Elverici;Turkiye Sise ve Cam Fabrikalari AS;CEO
executiveCan you please repeat the third question?
Aytunç Uz
analystWill you finance this total $450 million deal from your cash and cash equivalents? Or will you also use debt? The fourth question will be can we talk about the EBITDA margin difference between natural soda and synthetic soda. As far as I understand, synthetic soda ash price is higher than the natural soda ash price. But considering the cost efficiencies, you will get from Atlantic and Pacific Projects overall, how much EBITDA margin should we expect in the natural soda ash business?
Mustafa Elverici;Turkiye Sise ve Cam Fabrikalari AS;CEO
executiveSo let me try to provide the answers as much as possible. So the first one is we are only acquiring the production facility under Ciner Resources. So there are no additional assets. And you're perfectly right. This 44% when multiplied with the 51% ownership of the production facility, as we have already highlighted in the slides, the effective stake in the production facility is 23%, roughly around. But still, with this acquisition, we will have 60% controlling stake and management potential on this. For the figures that you provided about the pricing and additional premium, I believe it will be better to -- for Hande to provide the details to you because the calculations will provide that. Unfortunately, I cannot, at this moment, sit down and do the calculation with you, but the premium provided on top of the already existing market cap is not as high as 80%, but we can provide you the detailed figures associated with this. And the other question is, we will be financing this with the already existing cash and cash equivalents. But you know that we already have a balance sheet that can be easily further leveraged. So if required, and especially for the upcoming investment, large investment we have for U.S., for sure, we will be using project financing that will be aligned with the returns that will be generated. So the tenure and the pricing will be aligned in the structure. And if you can repeat the last question -- I'm sorry, the pricing difference. So there is no price difference with the synthetic one and the natural soda ash. So in the end, they are totally the same product. The margin differentiation, most of the time of natural soda ash against the synthetic ones are coming from the additional transportation costs that the natural soda ash producers have to bear because most of the time, soda mines are found inland. So especially as this is an export business, so both for Turkey and Wyoming, the huge capacities that are produced from those soda mines amount cannot be consumed only in the surrounding region. So they are exported to farther places. So together with the production costs, there is additional inland transportation plus sea freight. So most of the time, margins that are similar in synthetic production and the natural soda ash are coming from this reasoning. But still, when you look at the margin generation performance, it is like our Mersin production facility is one of the few that can compete or come close to the total cost of production plus freight generally related from natural soda ash. But especially when you compare with inland synthetic productions that we have, especially in Europe, the margin generation performance is quite different in natural soda ash and in synthetic. And when you consider it, especially the solution mining production this brings additional cost advantage. So it is not easy even for us from our Mersin facility, which is one of the cost champions globally to compete against Solution Mining products by margins. But the thing is that is there is a huge demand and almost all the producers can sell almost 100% of their production. There is no need for the producers to create price competition. So it is only the magnitude of the margins generated. It is not pricing competition against each other. I hope I've been able to answer all your questions.
Operator
operatorThe next question comes from [indiscernible] from private investor.
Unknown Attendee
attendeeI'd like to express my contentment for Sisecam's recent investments, which I believe those will make Sisecam stronger. I have 2 questions, which became more important with the soda ash investments. And actually, the first question was from Professor [indiscernible]. When I presented my valuation and growth prospects of Sisecam to him, he asked me where does the growth come from? And if it is from abroad? Does Sisecam cut prices to gain market share? And my second question is also related to that. Based on recent financial statements, approximately 60% of net sales was made abroad last year, and current figure is around 67%, which means that Sisecam becomes more a broad oriented company. However, profit margins are much higher in Turkey than Europe or abroad. How might these figures develop in the future with this soda ash investment?
Mustafa Elverici;Turkiye Sise ve Cam Fabrikalari AS;CEO
executiveWe have already watched your video also. So thank you very much for this [ interactive ] video, I should say. Let me start with the second question or let me provide the answers to both of the questions at the same time. The thing is that Sisecam being one of the largest global players doesn't have to penetrate to the market only by cutting prices. For sure, when you're penetrating first time to new markets, you have to carefully understand the market conditions, the pricing environment and how your competitors might react. But considering that this is a very capital-intensive business, considering not only glass but also the chemicals business that we are operating in, the larger players know that playing the price competition doesn't make any good for any of the larger competitors like ourselves. So it is most of the time a competition between the overall spectrum or the portfolio of the products we provide, the quality that you have, the customer relations and the after sales service and for sure, being in the acceptable level of the pricing range. But when you come to our glass businesses, you know that for the glass business, it is key to build some bolt-on circles or triangles that you have pricing power in that region that in return generates improved margins than your competitors. So it is not like multiplying it with 2x for sure. In the end, this is a commodity business, to a large extent, mass market commodity business. But still, there are additional margins that you can generate. And this is more or less the similar structure we have in Turkey as in almost all the business segments that we are operating in, in the glass segment, we have market share beyond 60%. So this is bringing both, say, in the pricing plus the economies of scale and an improved production capacity utilization as we have multiple furnaces, so we can more feasibly plan our production than our smaller competitors. So this is one of the main reasons like in flat glass as we have 8 furnaces in Turkey. This is bringing the additional margins than some of the businesses abroad. But as long as we continue to grow our businesses by production also in the global arena, we are proving day by day that we can stick to similar levels of EBITDA in those operations also. So when we first started our production in early 2000 with a couple of furnaces, for sure, EBITDA margin generation potential was way different than what it is now, and now business abroad are generating very similar EBITDA levels to Turkish ones. I hope considering the discussion you had with the professor that is providing a general answer to your question.
Unknown Attendee
attendeeYes, it does. And I'm glad to be a part of this great company.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Cemal Demirtas from Ata Invest.
Cemal Demirtas
analystCongratulations for this ambitious and very impressive plan or the acquisition. My first question is about the Ciner Resources part. I see that like you have a multiple -- trading multiples or deal multiple of 5x for the total acquisition. And I see that you expect a significant net value from Atlantic and the Pacific sites. What are your expectations for the China -- sorry, Ciner Resources part in terms of could you separate the multiple -- deal multiples for each part, like the Atlantic and Pacific and the other sites, Ciner Resources site. And the other question is about the Ciner Resources company. When we look at the margins, it's around 50% in 2020 and 2021. Do you know the reasons behind that unlike 2019, which was the EBITDA margin was around 25%. And I want to ask about the structure. How will the management of Atlantic and -- Atlantic and Pacific sites will go along with the other company? Will you share any management the issues together, just any indication about that?
Mustafa Elverici;Turkiye Sise ve Cam Fabrikalari AS;CEO
executiveSo we have already shared in the presentation also the breakdown, $300 million for Ciner Resources and $150 million for the total of Atlantic plus Pacific. So the EBITDA margin dilution that is being seen is mainly due to funding. So we know the reasoning. And for sure, we have forecast some projections basing our valuations on. But as I mentioned before, unfortunately, we are not able to provide too much further details for our expectations about Ciner Resources as this is a public company, and it has not provided any official guidances. We believe that we have to respect the SEC regulations on this but we believe it is still fair to use 2019 pre-pandemic levels as an acceptable EBITDA. And when you look at the previous 5 and 10 years' EBITDA margin performance, it is more around 24% to 28% of EBITDA margin as an output. So we believe that at least as we are not able to provide any forward-looking expectations on this, at least those are the levels that has been already hit on a -- as a continuous level by the company, and it is fair to accept them as a baseline. For Atlantic and Pacific for sure, there are projects under development. So there is a real big expectations generated from there. And we already shared that the low end of the NPV expected from them are a total of $3 billion. So Atlantic and Pacific are identical projects. So they will be managed together under one management. For sure, being close to each other, as we shared before, using shared utilities and services will provide synergies. And we already highlighted that for Atlantic/Pacific project to share them with Ciner Wyoming will bring -- is expected to bring at least 5% cost synergies on this. But for the rest of the like shared services, shared management and so on, I believe it is early to say anything around this. We already, for sure, have plans in line with our already existing organizational structures and so on. But those are the things that will be further crystallized not only with our partner, but there are additional partners and a public portion there. So we will respect all the stakeholders there, but I can easily say that Sisecam has proved it elsewhere in the other businesses. Doing this over 14 countries with more than 40 facilities, Sisecam will provide its main management philosophy and get the best out of the available resources there.
Cemal Demirtas
analystAnd as a follow-up, I see in your presentation page 10, the soda ash capacity expansion plans globally. And I see 2 million tons of synthetic capacity increase only. Do you expect any synthetic capacity closures in the regions you are operating that -- I would like to understand the changes in the industry. Because synthetic producers might not be as competitive as you are and others, especially in Europe, you're hearing that there were capacity closures. I want to understand how the dynamics in this. I see that it will go up from 72 million tons in 2021 to 85 million tons and natural soda side is growing. But I would like to understand the competitive environment and closures in some areas, would that change benefits of Sisecam overall?
Mustafa Elverici;Turkiye Sise ve Cam Fabrikalari AS;CEO
executiveI believe you perfectly understood and already provided the answer. Because like it is mainly the supply and demand balance and how this will be moving. So the expectation is that the market will grow. And if the market continues to grow, as it has been the case for the last decade, and it is the expected one because apart from the conventional usage, also there are some new areas as we shared are growing huge in like the increases almost 8x at the rapid speed. For sure, they are only reaching to 7% in the next 3 years, but still, there will be alternative industries that will be using soda ash. So when the demand is growing, the suppliers, even if they're more costly producing will have a chance to survive but that will bring additional margins to lower-cost producers like ourselves because now the pricing levels should move together with this higher cost producers and increased costs, including the cost that they will have to bear, especially around things like ESG. But if there is a demand decrease in the market, then most probably, it will be first those high-cost producers that will be shutting down their capacity because they will not be able to make meaningful returns. And that is a capital-intensive business. So it wouldn't be most probably meaningful for them to try to survive. So I believe apart from trying to guess how the others will be positioning themselves, it is fair to say that we will be positioned in the better margin generating and the last ones to survive structure. So it will always bring a meaningful margin generation. And if the cost increases, that will bring additional margins to us as our costs will be increasing at a lower pace than the synthetic producers.
Cemal Demirtas
analystOkay. And very last question, if I may. When we look at the price volatility in your presentation, it is very low. As far as I see, it's only 2%. It was very interesting for me as analyst who is covering the commodities. But when we look at the margins for like Ciner Resources, the margins are declining in 2020 and 2021. Could you give us just a quick picture about 2021. If the prices are stable, what was the reason behind the lower margins, the further increase in cost side or anything else just to understand the dynamics of the sector or the business.
Mustafa Elverici;Turkiye Sise ve Cam Fabrikalari AS;CEO
executiveSo the first one is Ciner Resources is a public company, and I believe you can easily see in their financials, the main reasonings and with their SEC filing, they're providing all the reasonings for this. But let me try to provide some clarity on this. The first thing is the contracts are done in the last quarter. So if you may recall, entering to the last quarter of 2022 -- 2020, the second wave of pandemic was hitting the market. So the mood was down. So the pricing environment, there has been some pricing decreases in the market that stays true for all the companies. So this is the main reason for margin dilution. This happened within almost all companies, apart from companies like ourselves who have taken the advantage of depreciation of their local currencies. And we have already shared this with our investors and analysts. And I believe Hande will take you into further details of the market dynamics of soda ash business. I don't want to spend too much time with our other investors and analysts. But the thing is that although this business is viewed as commodity, this is not a typical commodity business because the 2 sides of the equations are larger corporations doing business with each other over [Audio Gap] at least, so the prices are not like coal prices or copper prices that are there stabilized or defined in some international markets or international exchange. So for the rest, I believe it will be fair for us to provide you through one-on-one meeting to provide you further details.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] There are no further questions. We have one question from Ali Dhaloomal from Bank of America.
Ali Dhaloomal
analystJust wanted to ask you, I mean, the assumption behind your -- I mean, your target of net debt to EBITDA of 2x by 2024, especially that -- I mean, the first cash flows and production from the Pacific project is coming in first half 2026. So just wondering how you get to peak leverage in 2024? And then second question about CapEx, if you can just maybe, I mean, give us a bit more clarity about the annual CapEx that you expect from the project? I saw a slide where you put like $600 million to $700 million, but do you expect more front-loaded CapEx in the first years? Or I mean, whatever clarity you have on that.
Mustafa Elverici;Turkiye Sise ve Cam Fabrikalari AS;CEO
executiveThank you. For the net debt over EBITDA assumption for sure. This is a combination of the already existing facility performances, plus the already announced investments and the return -- expected returns generated from them within 2024. For sure, we did not provide any isolated picture on this to provide you a clarity. So based on our strategic planning practices and the financial projections associated with this, we feel ourselves pretty comfortable that at max, it will be peaking up to 2x at 2024, and this is the maximum. So it will increase gradually then from 2024 start to go down, thanks to the returns generated from the other investments, not from the soda ash business. For sure, the already existing Ciner Resources facility and the returns generated from there will also support the business because it comes with a very low debt level, but it provides -- expected to provide a meaningful EBITDA level as it has been able to do prepandemic. So this is the main reason we believe that it will peak at 2x at 2024. And as we have already shared with you, the [Audio Gap] start with the construction phase, which is expected to become late 2022. So starting from 2023, going up to 2025, especially those 3 years you can say will be the main CapEx consuming years, there will be some CapEx spending starting from next year. And also, that will continue up to 2026. But they will be considerably lower for the main CapEx spending between 2023 and 2025. And for this, more or less, we can consider an even distribution between those 3 years. So it will be fair to say that those 3 years will have more or less similar CapEx spending for these 2 project development.
Operator
operatorThere are no further questions. Dear speaker, back to you.
Mustafa Elverici;Turkiye Sise ve Cam Fabrikalari AS;CEO
executiveSo thank you very much for your participation to the call. We have tried to provide all the details that we could in line with also respecting the regulations and already existing limitations that we might have. But apart from this, we would like to just restate that this is a landmark deal, and we believe that this investment will provide a key role for both the financial performance starting from 2026 and '27 ongoing and also for helping Sisecam to penetrate further with the rest of the business portfolio also into the U.S. market. And once we further detail our investment plan and associated details with this for the investment for Atlantic and Pacific we will be sharing with our investors and analysts all the further details to provide additional clarity for you. Thank you very much.
Operator
operatorLadies and gentlemen, this concludes today's webcast call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.
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