Talgo, S.A. (XTG.DU) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everyone, thank you very much for connecting to the call, which is aimed to present the results of the year 2023. For the day, Gonzalo Urquijo, CEO of Talgo, will go through the presentation that was released yesterday. And at the end, we will open a Q&A session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you very much.

Good morning to all, and great to have you in this call. Thank you very much for joining it. First of all, 2023 has been a good year. We have at least 3 historical highs. And first, as we always start with safety, we have improved. As you know, our frequency and severity, 6.20 and 0.14, which is clearly much better than we had last year. We have to continue making progress and working on this. In terms of new orders, it's been a historical high with EUR 2.1 billion. Additionally to that, we've increased our manufacturing activity, and that has been basically backed by the Spanish projects, the German and Danish. We've also been working very hard in order to improve and increase our capacity. Revenues, historical high. So that's the second historical high, with above -- just above EUR 650 million. As you have seen, we have increased very much the manufacturing activity and with good results. Maintenance has continued to -- with its activity and also rendering to this constant good result. Now in terms of EBITDA, we go through it after, you've seen it's been EUR 76.5 million. That is with the new EBITDA I will explain after. That is clearly a very strict and [ promising ] EBITDA. And the -- as you know, the adjusted would have been EUR 82.6 million. So that would have been a margin of 12.7% if we are comparing like-to-like. In terms of debt, as you see there, we have increased, it's EUR 241 million just above -- it's clearly above the EUR 90 million we had last year. Clearly, for this debt we've had 2 basic reasons. That is the increase of turnover and working capital that we'll see after, and some of the payments that were expected last year, which are going to happen now this year. In terms of the scrip dividend, I think it was a success. All the -- so it has been completed and 83% of the shareholders have asked -- have accepted shares. Now we will go through in the last page, as we always do, in the revenue guidance. As you see the guidance, we estimate revenues that will be 45% of what we have the average over the last 2 years. EBITDA, we are talking of 11.5%. In the new way of calculating the EBITDA, it is 12.5% compared to the adjusted one. And in debt, we are thinking will be more or less stable at around 3x multiple of debt to EBITDA. If I go to the following page, that is business performance. What can I say? First of all, once more we've been, again, with new contracts that you have seen. It's basically one in -- for maintenance in Renfe, we've had Danish, we have the Germans, which is very important. The Danish was EUR 177 million. The German one has been with 56 trains, EUR 1.56 billion. And Renfe has been EUR 151 million. In terms of the Egyptian one, that still has to go through parliament. It is -- we haven't put it, we've talked to it, but that's a pending project. So that's where we are. Now if we add all up, as you see in the lower part of this page, we had a backlog of EUR 2.7 billion, with a new, it has been EUR 2.1 million. We have had revenues that we deduct of EUR 652 million. So we are now at EUR 4.2 billion, without adding, of course, the Egyptian one. Now where do we see the opportunities going forward? The opportunity is clear. It will be Egypt, as we just said. We believe in Europe, we will have seen FlixTrain, LATVIA, [ Bulgaria], and we see many opportunities in all these private operators. Additionally to that, we have various opportunities in Middle East. Next page, please. Okay, the backlog. It has increased, as we said, 54% and it's up to EUR 4.2 billion. And as you can see in the pie, you have another part, it says EUR 4.2 billion, and it's practically now 50-50 between maintenance and manufacturing. Now if you also see here, all these new orders, we tried to minimize the execution risk. And for that, we have been -- clearly, they all have the new pricing that we already addressed in terms of inflation, in terms of financial costs, et cetera. Now you see where we are now of multiple or of long-term revenues versus the backlog, we are now with a 1.2 and 6.5. Next page, please. Now in terms of our figures in the P&L. Remember, last year, we had practically EUR 470 million of revenues. This year, we've increased it practically 40% with EUR 652 million. It's an all-time high in terms of revenues. As was the backlog, it is also an all-time high. And clearly, at the end, our maintenance has been more or less constant, but what has really increased has been our manufacturing. We've done a great effort in that and that is where we are. In terms of maintenance, as I said, it's more or less stable with respect to previous years. Now we go to EBITDA. We've done it, as you see the upper part, is in -- where we're going to be publishing now and the lower part is what we had done with the adjusted one. So the upper part is EUR 49.3 million, and it would be at 10.5%. We have increased that by 55% to EUR 76.5 million, and it would be 11.7%. But if we compare it like-to-like, last year, we announced, in the adjusted, EUR 52.5 million, and that was 11.2%. Now for this year, it will be EUR 82.6 million, that's at 12.7%. Now in order to leave it clear now with the EBITDA, I think what's important here that the adjusted versus the normal one that we are publishing now that straight EBITDA. Why have we done this? It's basically the regulators in Spain in other countries have been very pushy on this, and they want everybody not to have adjusted figures. They believe it's more transparent for the markets to have the straight, let's call it, figure and not adjusted one. Why did we do adjusted one? It was basically extraordinary, that was obsolete materials. It could have been layoffs or we had a bad debt. That we was basically what we adjusted in the past. So that, I hope, clears any possible doubts you may have. Next stage, please. Okay. In terms of working capital, our working capital has increased, but so is our manufacturing. We've gone up from the sales we had last year to the sales we are having this year. So it is true that we've had a growth to that, and our working -- progress is EUR 321 million, as you see. So our working capital has gone from EUR 217 million to EUR 385 million. Additionally to that, in terms of debt, our debt has been EUR 241 million versus the EUR 97 million. We are at a multiple of 2.9x at the end of the year. Now this -- when I speak of this year, this should be reduced. We didn't have -- we expected at the beginning we would have the payments, which I'll speak about in a few moments, at the end of the year, but as you know, was not possible because the trains we hoped to give them -- to hand them to Renfe during March, okay, end of March, beginning of April. That is the date we have. Now what else can I tell you? In terms of -- it's very important in terms of our interest, the financial expenses, I would say. First of all, I would like to explain, we've had an accounting issue. That with IFRS 9, we've had EUR 14 million we've had to recognize. What is that? It's a noncash, but it has impacted our accounts. That was the DB. As you remember, in DB, we are doing the sale of receivables. Of course, that is nonrecurrent, and we had accounted for the interest. We would have done it year by year, and the accountants and a the are saying we have to bring it forward and we've recognized it all in this year. You will unwind that year-by-year. But this has not been a cash out. It will cash out year-by-year in the following years. In terms of debt, it is true. Even though we have majority of fixed debt and we have very good conditions of fixed debt, the increase in interest rates. And on the other hand, the debt -- the high amount of debt with high interest rate has impacted us, and that's why you see in the interest. So in the interest of financial expenses, we've been impacted by both. On the IFRS and on the other hand, more debt and the higher interest rates. As you see here, those are the figures of working capital in terms of revenues. We have -- we do think going forward, and I think this is important to say, that we see it as a stable going forward in terms of working capital and in terms of -- clearly, of debt going forward. Last but not least, if we go to the guidance. In terms of guidance, we -- for 2024, we're saying it's 11.5%, circa 11.5% in the EBITDA. That's an equivalent to 12.5% if we do with the adjusted EBITDA. That is as for number one. We think this is good because we don't have -- you remember last year, we did have in '23, some adjustments due to DSP and DB. So this -- we won't have those adjustments. So we do believe this is a good trend in terms of the EBITDA. Working capital, as I just said, it would remain stable. There's certainty to that, that's what we consider. In terms of debt, stable versus what we had at the end of '22, that is around a multiple of 3. In terms of CapEx, we're talking of EUR 30 million. It's something we have a [indiscernible] that was in terms of the increase and improvement of capacity. In terms of business performance, we said that for next year, so you can run your figures, it's a 45% of execution in terms of those sales that were '23, '24. In terms of book-to-bill, we are estimating -- last year was a great year, the famous more than EUR 2 billion. So we would be at present at around 1, that would be equivalent to our sales. Last but not least, talking of scrip dividend. I think it was very successful. As I said before, 83% of the shareholders wanted shares. And in terms of dividends, there's -- no decision has been taken as of today from the Board of Directors. Now there's a few other topics I would like to -- as I know you're going to come with questions, to try and makes sense to those questions. First of all, in terms of LACMTA, the legal issue we have with Los Angeles Metro, we have nothing new. And by the end of the year, we expect to have news. And for the moment, we are preparing documentation. For the second point I wanted to share with you where are we in the handing in or handover of the trains, the AVRIL new trains. What I have to tell you, that between mid-November, mid-December, we had what we call [Foreign Language], it's the authorization to put the trains in the market. We've done that for 22 trains. So they're already authorized and legal to go out to the railway. Additionally to that, we've been completing other activities. What have been those activities? First, that is compatible with all the infrastructure, so we've been doing things in Galicia, in Asturias, in Levante, in Barcelona, [ Marcilla ]. And those -- all those directions we've been running our trains. Additionally to that, we have the learning of the drivers. We have more than -- around 10 trains that are now with Renfe drivers that are doing all the learning in those trains. Additionally to that, we've been doing in the corridors different trial-outs to see and preparing the trains. We expect, as had been published in the press, that by the end of March, beginning of April, the trains will be running commercially. Last and not least, if I talk of the penalties, there is -- well, it's before last. In terms of the penalties, there's nothing new. They sent us an information 2 years ago asking for information, we answered. The have asked clarification a few months ago or 2 months ago, [ where we ] answered on the clarification. There's nothing new. And last but not least, in terms of the takeover, there's little we can tell you on this side. We already made public that in mid-November, we -- the Hungarian investor approach the Board of Directors with an [ expression to bid ]. We made immediately this public to the market. And then 3 weeks ago, 4 weeks ago, they launched a possible offer. Then the regulator asked for more information. And there's little more that we can say because the Board and the company has not received, for the moment, no further information. So thank you very, very much for attending. And we're open now to Q&A.

[Operator Instructions]

So a few questions from my side. And the first one, more related to 2023 numbers. The margin of Q4, the implied margin of Q4, has been around 10% EBITDA margin. You are guiding for 12.5% in 2024. So the question would be what drives this 10%, which seems a bit low, maybe it's because of mix, I don't know, rolling stock bearing lower margins? But how is this going to transition into 12.5% in 2024? This would be my first question. The second question, if you can remind us regarding LACMTA trial, what is the amount that you are that you are claiming or they are claiming. And thirdly, on the potential takeover bid of Magyar, I would like to hear your impression or what is the strategic fit that you see with them in terms of synergies, potential revenue synergies? So what is your opinion? Because I know you cannot comment on this, but maybe qualitatively, you can tell us what could be the equity story if you end up collaborating or merging with this company.

Jaime, as always thank you, and thank you for your questions. Look, in terms -- it is true, you're correct, the margins were somewhat lower in 2023 fourth quarter. But I think you have to bear in mind that you cannot see the margins in 1 quarter, that's too micro. At the end, because maybe you have adjustments, positive in 1 quarter and you have a negative in the following. Then you have, maybe in the last quarter, you've forgotten to put something -- not forgotten, but you have to put all the adjustments of the year. So this, I would say, is a normal seasonality. So we do believe we're going to be close with what we've been in the previous year and that's why we think we'll ride into this 12.5%. But also have ups and downs during the quarters of this. As we said, this would be our average and that's how we see it. As for your second question, Look, there's a little more than we can say because, as you know, this is obviously is confidential, so we cannot say absolutely anything. And what we've made public, there was a claim and we've done a counterclaim. A little more, I'm sorry, I can't tell you on that for legal reasons. Jaime, for your last question, I can only tell you one thing because this is -- and you will have to talk to the investors, that we, as a company, we have no further information. But it is our -- I think there's an industrial approach to this. That's the only thing we can say. Okay, Jaime, [Foreign Language] for your questions.

Okay. Can I do one further question on -- or I'll wait. I'll wait.

No, no, go ahead. Sure, sure, sure. Go ahead.

No, no, no, because I don't see other hands raised, but maybe I'm wrong. No, I was going to ask also on the pipeline. Because it looks -- the outlook for your business, it looks very good. And there was -- you were publishing one news on Bulgaria, maybe you can elaborate a little bit on the tender bid in Bulgaria where you are going to use the same model last -- the success model of the Deutsche Bahn, and maybe other opportunities that you see happening in '24.

Thank you. Now look, what can I tell you? I think in Page 5, when we approach Page 5, look, I think as a whole, the market is strong. Some people even say I'm more prudent, as you know we are prudent. Some people say it's prudent. I think the market for various reasons, we all know, that is we are very SG and decarbonization in terms of our sector. Many governments are asking that less than 500 kilometers, you can't use a plane. So there is a lot of in the macro, good things. Additionally to that, we have newcomers and we're going to see them more and more present that are all the private operators, and this is new customers. For example, many of our deals, LATVIA, Flix, et cetera, they're already -- and we have many other ones that we cannot say yet that are also private. So there's a second element that has improved the market very much. Additionally to that, there's a third one for us. We have increased our -- we have increased in terms of Germany, in terms of Denmark. Additionally, we are now negotiating in Arabia. So that is also important for us. So we had a lot of extensions, I would say, at least these [ 6 ]. Additionally to that, as I said before, we are looking, look, Egypt, Flix, LATAM, Bulgaria, Middle East. We not only have the extension. We have other ones that are looking in the Emirates and in Saudi, which they have 2 other projects. But for the moment, we are reviewing them and analyzing them. Now in terms of Bulgaria, we have done an offer. Now as there was a non-European country that was quoting or company that was countering, the European Union is going to review that, and that's where we are now. There's only 2 possible players, that is a non-European and us, and that's where we are now. And it would be -- and as you were saying, this is a German. So it would be basically German and doing coaches and that is where we are. And I think we're very fortunate now because we have 2 new products in the market in a very good moment of the market. That is the German project and it's the new high-speed train. Okay, Jaime.

Well, if there are no additional questions, then we will bring the call to an end. Thank you very much for everyone. In any case, for any further question, we have the IR channel open. Thank you very much. Thank you, all.

Thank you very much to all, and have a good day. And thank you for continuing supporting us and -- with your presence. And thank you very, very much and have a great day. [Foreign Language] everyone.