T&D Holdings, Inc. (8795) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

This is Ito from IR Department of T&D Holdings. Thank you very much for joining our earnings call today. The presentation is uploaded on our website in the IR Events section. Today, for the first 10 minutes, I will go through the presentation, which will be followed by the Q&A session. So without further ado, let's get started. Please turn to Page 3. I will explain the points of the financial results. Group adjusted profit for FY '24 exceeded the full year forecast of JPY 130 billion disclosed on February 14 and reached a record high of JPY 141.5 billion. Adjusted ROE was 10.4%. The full year forecast for FY '25 was revised up to JPY 146 billion from the JPY 140 billion or so disclosed on March 31. Sales results of new policies of all 3 life insurance companies exceeded the plans. Surrender and lapse rate has risen in Taiyo and TDF and declined for Daido. Value of new business increased by JPY 166.1 billion. The group MCEV amounted to JPY 4,181.3 billion. ESR was 243%. The combined total of JPY 200 billion in domestic and foreign stocks was divested at Taiyo and Daido for FY '24, while full year plan was JPY 140 billion. Dividend per share for FY '25 was revised up to JPY 124 per share, an increase of JPY 4 from JPY 120 per share disclosed on March 31. This will be the 11th consecutive fiscal year of dividend increase, up JPY 44 from the previous fiscal year. Please turn to the next page. Financial KPIs are shown on this page. FY '25 full year forecasts are shown on the right-hand side. Details of the forecast will be discussed on Page 26 onwards. Please turn to the next page. The breakdown of the results of operations by company is as stated. With 3 domestic life insurance companies and T&D United Capital recorded high double-digit year-on-year increases in group adjusted profit. The consolidated results marked a 36.7% year-on-year growth, reaching JPY 141.5 billion. Page 7 shows the key results of 3 life insurance companies. At Taiyo Life and Daido Life, positive spread and core profit increased year-on-year. Factors of increase and decrease in positive spread on core profits are shown on Page 8. In addition, at Daido Life, capital gains decreased year-on-year due to losses on the sales of bonds, which were replaced as part of cash flow matching strategy. Please turn to Page 9. At Taiyo Life and Daido Life, average assumed investment yields was 1.24% and 1.25%, respectively. Next page, please. Adjusted profit for T&D United Capital increased by JPY 8.3 billion year-on-year to JPY 14.1 billion. Please turn to the next page. The adjusted profit related to Fortitude's financial results for the January to March '25 period is currently being calculated due to a review of the financial reporting framework following the introduction of LDTI. We plan to report it in August, together with the disclosure of our Q1 financial results for the fiscal year ending March 2026. Next page, please. Sales results of Taiyo Life are shown in this page. Annualized payments of protection-type new policies increased year-on-year, mainly due to an increase in sales volume in the agent channel. Surrender and lapse rate increased year-on-year, mainly due to an increase in surrenders in the agent channel. Please turn to the next page. New policy amount of Daido Life progressed well and increased significantly year-on-year, mainly due to attentive consulting sales activities that comprehensively cater to customers' diverse needs for coverage. The surrender and lapse rate has remained below that of the previous year since the second half of the year and was also below the previous year's level for the full year. Policy amount in force increased steadily. Please turn to the next page. Annualized premiums of new policies remained on par with the same period last year, supported by favorable sales of single premium individual annuity. Surrender and lapse rate increased year-on-year due to higher surrenders of foreign currency-linked products that reached target yen value as a result of the weakening of the yen, annualized payments of policies in force increased. Please turn to the next page. Group MCEV, excluding valuation gains and losses related to Fortitude, et cetera, increased by JPY 78.1 billion from the end of the previous fiscal year to JPY 4,181.3 billion, mainly due to the accumulation of value of new businesses, a rise in domestic interest rates and a rise in market value of foreign stocks and others. Total value of new businesses of the 3 companies increased by JPY 4.3 billion year-on-year to JPY 166.1 billion. New business margin was 7.8%. The details of MCEV of each of the 3 life insurance companies is given on Page 16 and movement analysis of group MCEV on Page 17, and sensitivities are provided on Page 18. Please turn to Page 19. This page shows the status of investments of Taiyo Life and Daido Life. During the full fiscal year, the company sold approximately JPY 200 billion in domestic and foreign stocks in combined total of the 2 companies, which was beyond the initial full year plan of JPY 140 billion. The interest matching ratio of Daido Life increased by approximately 13 percentage points from the end of the previous year to 79.8%. In addition, the interest matching ratio of Taiyo Life was 92%. Please turn to the next page. Status of foreign currency denominated bonds is as shown on this page. We have continued to reduce hedged foreign bonds, mainly at Taiyo Life. Please turn to Page 22. This page shows the status of net valuation gains and losses on general account assets. Unrealized losses on bonds increased due to higher interest rates. Please turn to the next page. The ratio of strategic shareholdings to net assets as of March 31, 2025, remained at 17%, the same level as the previous fiscal year-end, partly due to a decline in net assets. We aim to achieve a balance of 0 strategic shareholdings by the end of March 2031, the final year of the next group long-term vision, excluding those of business partners and collaborators. Please turn to the next page. We are proceeding with the sale of the stocks that have been reclassified from strategic holdings to shares held for pure investment purpose in the course of reducing equity risks. The cumulative total of sales came to 39% by the end of March 2025. Please turn to the next page. ESR as of the end of March 2025 has risen from the end of the previous fiscal year to 243% due to an increase in surplus as a result of the acquisition of new policies, et cetera. Including the approximately JPY 120 billion investment in Viridium, which was announced on March 31 and JPY 100 billion in share buybacks, ESR is expected to be approximately 225%. Please turn to the next page. Consolidated full year earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending on March 31, 2026, are stated in the slide. Group adjusted profit is expected to be JPY 146 billion, an year-on-year increase of JPY 4.4 billion, and adjusted ROE is expected to be 10.9%. Please turn to the next page. The forecast of nonconsolidated earnings of each company are shown in this slide. Breakdown of earnings forecast of 3 life companies are stated on Page 28 and 9. Please turn to Page 30. Lastly, I'd like to explain our shareholders' returns. For the fiscal year ending March 2025, total shareholder returns amounted to JPY 141.5 billion, consisting of JPY 41.5 billion in cash dividends and JPY 100 billion in share buybacks as disclosed on March 31. This resulted in a total payout ratio of 100% against group adjusted profit. In addition, reflecting the upward revision of group adjusted profit for both 2025 and FY 2026, we have revised the forecast for FY 2026 dividend per share from JPY 120 as disclosed on March 31 to JPY 124, an increase of JPY 4 per share. This represents a significant year-on-year increase of JPY 44. Although it is not mentioned in this slide, we disclosed on October 31 last year regarding our own company shares that we cannot locate the holders whereabouts. Today, we resolved that we buy those shares back as own shares. The number of shares subject to the purchase is 2,211,219 shares. And our purchase date is scheduled to be May 16, and the price at which we purchase is the closing share price on the date of the purchase. Please refer to the details in the public release. This completes the briefing of financial results for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025.

This is Muraki from SMBC Nikko. I have 2 questions. First, regarding the interest rate hike, how do you plan to take measures against that this fiscal year? On Page 22, you mentioned that as of end of March, the domestic bond unrealized losses are quite sizable, and it is increasing in my view, recently. So in the new fiscal year, do you plan to reshuffle the portfolio? Or what's your view on the losses on sales? And also regarding duration matching on the asset side, do you plan to extend the duration? If so, to what extent? On Page 52, you have some data. And also on a separate report, I see that the Daido Life's interest rate sensitivity has come down quite significantly. And for Taiyo, when interest rate goes up, the negative impact on EV is quite big. So how do you plan to control the interest rate risk this fiscal year? Are you going to extend the duration? Or do you also plan to potentially shorten the duration?

Yes, Muraki-san, thank you for your question. So despite the rising interest rate environment, as our basic policy, we will continue to buy the ultra-low bond. At Daido for the year, we plan to buy roughly JPY 200 billion. And as you pointed out, with the higher interest rate, there will be risk. So we are closely monitoring that. And when surrender goes up, we will make sure that there will not be over matching, and we will pursue our strategy in accordance with our plan. And regarding the sensitivity, as you point out, for Daido, the interest rate sensitivity is coming down with higher matching rate. And for Taiyo, as of September, there is a negative sensitivity to the interest rate. And the reason for this is because of the higher interest rate for the purpose of calculating the EV in the model, we incorporate higher risk for dynamic surrender. But obviously, we will closely monitor how surrender will trend with a higher interest rate. But overall, in principle, we will continue to try to reduce the interest rate risk.

My second question is related to the surrender trend. So for the full year, what was the impact on EV coming from the surrender trend? And I believe you have received some shareholder proposal, which pointed out, especially for Taiyo Life, that the surrender rate is high. And also with the effort to increase the sales reps, the profitability is weak. So regarding the surrender risk and also regarding the profitability challenge for Taiyo, what is the company's view?

Thank you for your question, Muraki-san. And regarding the impact on EV from surrender, this time, we changed the surrender assumption and the impact on EV from that for Taiyo is roughly JPY 16 billion. For Daido, that impact is about JPY 57 billion. And for Tao Life, on the bancassurance channel, the surrender rate is increasing. So that's the main reason. And for Daido Life, the surrender assumption is that the last 12-month surrender will converge to the 10-year average. So right now, the surrender rate is stabilizing. But if you look at the 10-year average surrender rate -- 10 years ago, the surrender rate for Daido was low 6%. So the average 10-year surrender is still higher. So gradually, it still continues to go up. So that's a negative implication from the assumption. And regarding your second question regarding the weak profitability of Taiyo Life business. As the management team, we see this as important challenge that needs to be addressed. And in order to improve the profitability of Taiyo, we have many measures. First and foremost, we will review the assumed investment yield. Most recently in December last year for the third sector policies, the assumed investment yield has been reviewed. So this will be conducted in phases. And we also plan to reinforce the underwriting capabilities to be more rigorous on underwriting and to be more optimal on the claims payment side. And also, we have measures to improve the surrender and lapse rate. And for the sales rep channels, we will have a more robust after sales follow-up activities, and we will also try to maintain quality in the sales and marketing activities. And with that, the surrender rate in the sales rep channel is stabilizing. And also, it's key to enhance productivity with the sales reps. So as a measure, we have introduced new devices so that we can leverage on the non-face-to-face channel as well to have a hybrid sales model. And also for the branches, we are restructuring the organization to reinforce the support functions. And the surrender rate at the bancassurance channel is increasing, but we will closely monitor the trend to have a grip with the management of this trend. So we pay full attention to the dynamic surrender risk. So we will have a certain level of cash position and short-term bond to be able to respond to that. And as needed, we may control sales and also review the premium level so that we can control and manage the risk.

My first question is on the surrender ratio. At Taiyo Life, the surrender ratio has come down quite a lot. Has this change been included in your assumption, to what extent? And also, there's this new product that is selling at the bancassurance channel at the new premium level. For this new product, are you assuming higher surrender than the past? Is that the assumption for this new product? Are the policies which are being surrendered by a lot are old policies that you sold in the past? So for the new product, you're not assuming as high surrender as the level of the surrender that you're experiencing for the policies which are being surrendered at the moment? Or conservatively, are you assuming a higher level of surrender ratio for this new product as well being sold at the bancassurance channel? Would you please give me a little bit more color on that? My second question is also on the surrender ratio at Daido Life. Surrender ratio at Daido is coming down as well. When you calculate ESR, you have to calculate simply the mass lapse risk. Looking at the result of that mass lapse risk calculation, in reality, everybody thinks that it is slightly different from the reality. But actually, can you explain that Daido's surrender has nothing to do with the level of the interest rates? Can you explain like that? That's my second question. My last question, going back to Taiyo Life. As long as they continue bancassurance channel sales, when interest rates go up, inevitably, they experience the increase in the surrender ratio. So I thought you could just go ahead and attach MVA rather earlier than later, I thought. Do you think you can start to do that?

Ms. Tsujino, thank you so much for your questions. To your first question, relating to the surrender at Taiyo Life, to what extent are we assuming the level of surrender for the new product? We have incorporated the most recent result of the surrender ratio in EV calculation. To your second question relating to the new product being sold at the bancassurance channel, our assumption for the surrender, this particular product is also sold by sales reps. So refer to the surrender actual ratio of this same product being sold by sales reps, and we assume the same assumption in the EV calculation.

So a follow-up question. For this particular new product, totally different assumed rate of return, new product. Are you assuming the same surrender as the surrender ratio for old policies, which are being surrendered by a lot? So don't I have to worry that it could get worse than this level for the new product?

For this new product, the policies are not being surrendered much. And this is the same product sold by sales reps. So we defer to the actual result of the surrenders that we see in the sales reps channel. And policies which are being surrendered at the moment are the ones which have the low cash surrender value period. And in the sixth year, policyholders get the principal back. That is the design of the product. But for the new product, it is not designed in such a way, enticing the surrender in the sixth year. Therefore, relatively speaking, we think the surrender risk is lower for the new product. And regarding the potential attachment of MVA, the group is considering the potential attachment of MVA. Understood? Regarding your other question relating to the surrender at Daido Life, can we explain that surrender at Daido has nothing to do with the interest rate level? For ESR, for mass surrender risk, there's a definition defined by the regulation. So we simply comply with the regulation to calculate mass surrender risk. So for now, we don't have any plan to change or review the mass surrender risk calculation. For Daido surrender risk, can we explain that there's nothing to do with the interest rate? To that question, we don't think that there is a correlation between the 2. Looking at the past results, we cannot confirm that there is a direct correlation between the interest rate level and surrender level. So in the future, you have to explain that to the regulator. Are you going to communicate that to the regulator? If necessary, yes.

This is Watanabe from Daiwa Securities. I have 2 questions. My first question is about the dynamic surrender risk for Taiyo with the interest rate rising. On Page 56, you talk about the reinsurance scheme of the existing block. So would it be fair to say that the risky policy have been carved out? And also for the new policies that you are selling now, as a preventive measure, are you preparing to potentially see those blocks out using reinsurance? And my second question is the earnings plan for Daido Life, as you indicate on Page 28 and 29. For the new year, you expect a reduction in the interest and dividend income rise in operating expenses and also significant improvement in the capital gains and loss situation. So what are the reasons behind this assumption?

Mr. Watanabe, thank you for your question. So regarding Taiyo's reinsurance, what we seeded out is just for the period for the low surrender value. So beyond that, the surrender risk will come back to us. So the surrender risk is not fully transferred. So it is not completely separated out.

I see. So with the surrender rate risk, there is still a risk for you to realize the valuation losses on the bond?

Yes, that is correct. But we will try to countermeasure that by having a certain level of cash position. So let me rephrase. For reinsurance, we just partially seeded out the risk. So the surrender risk is not completely taken out. And regarding the Daido's earnings plan, the interest and the dividend income is projected to come down because the alternative investment income last fiscal year was very strong. So we expect that to come down for this fiscal year. The capital gains will improve because we will continue to divest the strategically held stocks. And also in the business plan, the loss on the sales of the cash flow matching bonds are not reflected. And regarding the rise in the operating expenses, it's mainly due to increase in personnel cost and also IT system investment. So that's why the operating expenses will be going up. And I would like to correct my response to Watanabe-san's previous question. So we did use reinsurance scheme to deal with the large surrender risk. So earlier, I said the surrender risk is not transferred, but we have transferred that risk. But with the rate environment going forward, there is some surrender risk remaining, but that risk has been reduced substantially.

Sato from JPMorgan. I'm going to ask one question each time. My first question is regarding the guidance for this fiscal year, in particular, your exchange rate assumption. If yen becomes stronger, do you have any additional buffer to offset the impact from the stronger yen? On Page 26, in your plan for this fiscal year, your assumption rate is JPY 154 to the dollar against JPY 1 movement being stronger, impact is estimated to be JPY 840 million. So if you assume the exchange rate that is not too conservative, I think we have to be prepared for the potential JPY 10 -- stronger yen than your assumption rate. So against this potential fluctuation of the exchange rates, to this downside, are there any buffer factors such as additional capital gain that you can book to offset the impact of the stronger yen or any conservative assumption that could end up being the upside offsetting the impact of the stronger yen?

Mr. Sato, thank you so much for your question As you pointed out, yen is being stronger compared to your assumption rate. To offset, we have investment profit and we have underwriting profit, which can offset the potential impact from the stronger yen. Against the downside risk from the exchange rate, we don't plan to generate additional capital gains, but we have the investment profit and underwriting profit, which could offset the potential impact.

I wanted to ask you more specifically within the investment profit and underwriting profit, I think there are conservative assumptions that you have put in your guidance by company, by entity in the group or for the investment profit, the capital gain versus income gain specifically. So what are the specific areas which are upside potentially, which could offset the potential downside from the exchange rate? Would you please give me more color?

Mr. Sato, thank you so much for that question. Difficult question to answer, but potential upside areas are: first, at Daido alternative area, we are assuming reactionary decline, but it may turn up to be better. And also with the higher interest rates, yield on bonds could be better. And also, we could sell more equities. We could sell more shares than the amount that we are assuming in the plan. That completes my answer.

Understood. My second question is on ESR. What is the impact from the interest rate situation on ESR? How does it impact the ESR? You have investment in Viridium and also JPY 100 billion buyback that you announced recently. Driven by those factors, I guess ESR is going to be the target level -- near the target level. But in the super long end of the curve, there's a steepening of the yield curve. I think that's positive, at least on the embedded value, but mass lapse risk may change also. So considering that, what is the anticipated impact in your simulation?

Mr. Sato, thank you so much for your question. The super end of the yield curve are steepening. As you pointed out, there's a movement of mass lapse risk. So there's a negative impact on that. And interest rate sensitivity to ESR is going to be negative when the steepening happens at the super end of the curve.

Well, if the curve is the parallel shift, then you disclose the sensitivity on a regular basis based upon the parallel shift of the curve. But looking at the current curve, the steepening is happening at the end of the curve -- long end of the curve. Is it a higher sensitivity or lower sensitivity?

Mr. Sato, thank you so much for your question. It depends on the magnitude of the steepening, so difficult to answer clearly. There are positives and negatives from the steepening depending upon the magnitude. So hard to say. That's all.

My very last question. If it's difficult for you to answer today, then you can just tell me that you don't have the data or you don't have the answer. But my next last question is UFR. So before extrapolation, [ full-year ] interest rate is assumed to be very low for UFR in your case. But do you have any plan to review or change? Potentially reviewing USR upward or downward, any potential impact?

Mr. Sato, thank you so much for your question. UFR sensitivity is disclosed. At the bottom of Page 52, against 50 basis points decline of UFR, you see the sensitivity. So please refer to that sensitivity table.

I know the sensitivity on EV embedded value, but I wanted to ask you the sensitivity about ESR, but I don't want to take so much time for myself. So that's fine.

This is Sasaki from Nomura Securities. I have 2 questions. For Daido's earnings plan for FY March 2026, earlier, you explained that the operating expenses are going up. Is this the main reason why the insurance-related profit is coming down for Daido? If that is the case, it seems like there is going to be an increase of cost by JPY 20 billion, maybe for personnel expenses and IT investment. So what are your plans to spend on these numbers? And what's the intention behind the investment? And my second question is, are there any policyholders who would like to surrender because the ultra-long rate may be reaching close to 3%?

Thank you, Sasaki-san, for your questions. Regarding the Daido's question, yes, the insurance profit is coming down because of the increase in the operating expenses, and that's the biggest reason. The operating expenses are going up because of the higher personnel cost with wage hikes and also spending on IT systems and sales measures in order to strengthen Daido Life's business model. And next, are there any policyholders who would like to surrender because the ultra-long rate is close to 3%? And my answer is no, we don't see any policyholders acting in that behavior at Daido.

My follow-up question is on the earnings. In the appendix presentation, you point out the uncertainties, including the tariff policies from the U.S. and you have a footnote in red ink. Do you have something specific in mind? Or did you just express this as a generic statement? So just this quick follow-up question.

Sure. So it's just a general statement that we made because we see uncertainties. So it's just a general statement.

I see. So you don't have anything specific in your mind, but it's just a pure general remark. Would that be fair to say?

Well, yes, but we just stated that as a potential risk that needs to be monitored.

Sakamaki from Mizuho Securities. My question is on the guidance for Taiyo Life. Simply, Taiyo is guiding ordinary profit to go up, but they are guiding adjusted profits to go down for this fiscal year. What is this gap? What does this mean? My second question is the pace of sale of equities at Taiyo and Daido. It seems like for Taiyo, the pace is slower; for Daido, the pace is faster. So would you please give me the amount of assumed sale of equities at both entities?

Mr. Sakamaki, thank you so much for your question. To your first question, the gap between the ordinary profit and adjusted profit at Taiyo Life. This is due to the extraordinary loss assumption. This is assumed to come from the disposal of fixed assets and others to improve the asset portfolio. That's why there's a gap between the 2. And to your second question, the pace of sale of equities at Taiyo and Daido, in total of the 2 companies, we are assuming JPY 180 billion. For Taiyo, JPY 120 billion. For Daido, we are assuming JPY 60 billion equity sales.

This is Mashima from Tokai Tokyo Intelligence Lab. So my question is also around the surrender trend for Daido Life. Earlier, you commented that the surrender rate now has stabilized, and there's no impact from the interest rate. But generally speaking, there is a 2025 issue of the tax benefit to insurance policies. So are there any concern over that? So I believe those would be the policies that have been sold in 2018-2019. So those tax benefit policies surrender is set to peak in 2025. If that is the case, your surrender rate may be stable now, but is there a risk that the surrender rate may spike? That's my first question.

Mashima-san, thank you for your question. Yes, at Daido, around 2018, we have sold the nursing care term life, and we do expect some surrender rate from those policies. And if you just look at the nursing care term life, the surrender rate may increase. But overall, we expect the surrender rate to stabilize and be flattish. And also, the increase in surrender for the nursing care term life is already reflected in the calculation of EV. So even with the higher surrender rate of the nursing care term life, it will not have an impact on the EV.

So this peaked out in 2025?

No, it will continue for some time. So this peak level will continue for some time.

I see, but you do not expect a significant impact.

That is correct. So from the overall view, it is not a huge amount.

I have 2 follow-up questions. First, Daido and Taiyo. I'd like to understand the process of capital gains and losses. Daido Life, relatively speaking, the capital gains and losses are relatively higher. Am I right in understanding that this is not going to be impacted by the recent market environment or market trend? Am I right in understanding that there is not so much impact from the recent market environment in terms of the capital gains and losses? My second question is on your assumption of the increase in expenses. You know that expenses are going to go up. So when you calculate EV, you have incorporated all the expenses, which are expected to increase. So at the end of March, in your projection, have you included all expenses which are expected to go up in the EV calculation? Am I right?

Ms. Tsujino, thank you so much for your questions. First, capital gains and losses at Daido, which is higher. That's because we had the capital loss of yen bonds last year, but we are not assuming that not to repeat in this fiscal year. And about the expenses? Yes, all the future expenses, which are expected to increase, we have included all expected increase of expenses in the EV calculation.

So we would like to conclude the Q&A session, and we will have a closing remark from Mr. Ito.

Thank you for joining our call despite your busy schedule, and thank you for all your questions. Our next IR event will be held on May 23, our IR Presentation Day. From our President, Mr. Moriyama, he will talk about the strategies going forward. So once again, thank you very much.