Tata Chemicals Limited (TATACHEM.BO) Q2 FY2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
November 3, 2025
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
OperatorGood evening, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Q2 and H1 FY '26 Earnings Conference Call of Tata Chemicals Limited. Please note that this conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] We have with us today R. Mukundan, Managing Director and CEO; and Nandakumar Tirumalai, Chief Financial Officer of Tata Chemicals Limited. Before we begin, I would like to mention that some of the statements made in today's discussion may be forward-looking in nature and may involve risks and uncertainties. I now invite Mukundan to begin proceedings of the call. Sir, you may proceed.
Ramakrishnan Mukundan
ExecutivesThank you, Davin. Good evening, and welcome, everyone, to our Q2 H1 FY '26 Earnings Call. I'll start the discussion with a brief overview of industries and our operation highlights across business and geographies. Overall, the global demand for all key products is estimated to be flat in the near term with stable demand in Europe. Africa and America and also in regions in India and Asia, excluding China, the demand is robust. The demand in China is seeing a slight downward trend and Southeast Asia has remained weak with abundant supply of the input material. Medium to long term, the story for the products we are in remains positive with the growth of solar PV and EV growth. even though there are short-term margin challenges. Geopolitical risk and tariff uncertainties persist. The tariff announcements did negatively impact PV glass manufacturer in Malaysia and Vietnam. Slow pace of economic recovery is expected to continue into 2026. The tariff issues are getting more slight solved as we move along. And as they get resolved, I think the situation will ease further. Soda ash market, as I said, continue to be oversupplied with high inventory levels. Global operating margins do remain high. China inventory, especially is high at 1.65 million tons, placing continued pressure on the spot prices coming out of China. The prices continue to weaken during Q2 FY '26, whereas the supply-demand balance continues to be soft and will be range bound in the medium term. The Chinese soda ash prices declined approximately by 56% to 58% between Q2 FY '23 and Q2 FY '26. This is because of the intense competition we're seeing there, due to new capacity coming on stream in Inner Mongolia. The cash margins are under pressure, especially in China and most of the production is today at negative cash margin. The soda ash list prices have remained unchanged in Q2, average import prices ranging between $232 to $236 into India. The MIP has been extended till 2025 in India, but it has not restricted the market prices as importers continue to supply and exerting significant pressure on dense soda ash prices. There is an antidumping duty recommendation submitted by DGFT subject to Minister of Finance approval. In U.S., export pricing to Asia has continued to drop due to persistent oversupply situation and spot offers from China. Overall, we expect the pricing to be subdued in the current range and remain there for the rest of the year. Now we'll move into operational highlights in the business and geographies. On a stand-alone basis, the company has done well. Revenue from operations were up 19%. EBITDA at INR 240 crores was up 67% and profit after tax at INR 178 crores was up 80%. On the consolidated results, while revenue was down marginally 3% on INR 3877 crores. This is mainly due to reconfiguring of U.K. because this quarter, we did not have the Lostock sales, which has gone to 0. And the Lostock was still operational in Q2 of the previous year. In addition to that, I think the EBITDA itself this year has been lower at INR 618 crores compared to INR 537 crores. This is because of the same lower volume and lower realization. The profit after tax has been impacted on 2 counts. One is the onetime provisioning of INR 65 crores in U.K. This is because of all the contractual obligations were reviewed this quarter after complete seizure of operation. And we have estimated that it's prudent to provide for INR 65 crores, which is the future obligations brought forward, both from supply and sales side. In terms of the U.S., there's a onetime reduction in the work in progress, which led to underabsorption of fixed costs by about $5 million. So overall, I would say, about INR 105 crores is the broad impact of onetime events of the quarter. Unit-wise, India performed higher than previous year, due to higher volume and operational efficiency. Quarterly volume of all products increased, including sales volume of FOS, which went to 858 metric tons in Q2 compared to 675 metric tons in Q2 of last year. In U.S., both export volume and prices were lower than Q2 FY '25. Domestic was at par. U.K., the cessation of Lostock operation led to a better operational performance. The reconfiguration in U.K. is complete, the focus is on value-added noncyclical products, we do expect to turn positive in the third quarter of this year and definitely overall moving to positive by fourth quarter of this year in U.K. Kenya saw lower sales volume due to shipment delays. However, in the second half of the year, you should see the volumes come back because most of the shipment issues have been resolved. The pricing will be lower than what was previous year. There was a pending litigation in Kenya with the county government, that dispute has been resolved with the appeal court ruling in our favor. And highlighting that this decision was arbitrary and illegal and we are not obliged to pay the amount. Rallis saw overall revenue degrowth of 7%, volume degrowth 10% and price growth of 3%. And overall, EBITDA stood at 18% in Q2 FY '26. In conclusion, our focus continues to remain to focus on maximizing volume, focusing on customer delivery and servicing customers well, focusing on what we can control in terms of cost and working capital and ensuring that we build upon the restructured U.K. operation to at least ensure that all operations are positive. The areas of focus for us remains keep a close watch on exports from U.S. because that is the item that is one part of the business, which is under pressure in terms of margin and to ensure that the customer contracts are done in a manner that it is a positive or range bound for the company. With this, I hand it back to moderator for open for Q&A.
Operator
Operator[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Saurabh Jain from HSBC.
Saurabh Jain
AnalystsMy first question is on the litigation issue in Kenya. So, is it fair to assume that everything here is now settled, and there are no further case complications that can arise out of this issue?
Ramakrishnan Mukundan
ExecutivesNo, I think there is an opportunity, as in any litigation. The parties can go and appeal in the Supreme Court. That is a final Court of Justice and that opportunities for 14 days, we are observing the matter. But as of now, the ruling which has come in our favor also will help us in case this matter does go to Supreme Court.
Saurabh Jain
AnalystsUnderstood. Because I thought there is also a parallel reapproach that the local government body, they went to High Court again. So does this judgment which has come into our favor by the Court of Appeal, supersede that High Court orders? [Technical Difficulty]
Operator
OperatorLadies and gentlemen, please stay with us, the management line seems to have disconnected while we reconnect with the management. Ladies and gentlemen, we now have the management line reconnected. Saurabh, May I request you to please repeat your question.
Saurabh Jain
AnalystsYes. I was asking...
Ramakrishnan Mukundan
ExecutivesYes, Saurabh. I understood the question. I think in terms of the land rate matter, this is the main one. And I think we will await the judgment on this. The other matters were all -- also on other matters, which we have not highlighted but also got resolved during the quarter was the -- all the tax-related matters. I think that has also been resolved. We have settled the matter after agreeing to pay INR 16-odd crores. That is also expensed out in this quarter.
Saurabh Jain
AnalystsOkay. So the tax matter is now closed and you would still await the judgment by the High Court on the same issue of the land rate?
Ramakrishnan Mukundan
ExecutivesNo, no, no. Now we are awaiting the matter if they take it to Supreme Court, that's it. If they doesn't go then the matter is settled. But we have always been opened to reasonable discussions and going by the processes to arrive at land rate, but this was very arbitrary. The amount arrived. That's it.
Saurabh Jain
AnalystsThat is useful. Secondly, on the antidumping duty, which has been recommended, I would understand that you will not be able to comment on what is going to happen, what is not. But I just want to get your thoughts because what we understand from the media reports is that the gap -- pricing gap could actually be about $70 to $100 per ton. So if at all this sees application and execution, how much of this you could actually be seeing the increase in the pricing for Tata Chemicals and hence forth flowing to your EBITDA.
Ramakrishnan Mukundan
ExecutivesSo I'll give you a bit of color. I think the upper end of the band, you are right, it is in that range, but the lower end of the band for -- it actually varies by country and by supplier. The lower end of the band is actually as close to about $30-odd. So you could take a range bound. But in reality, I think this will make the current producers, operations remunerative. That's all I would say. I think it is fundamentally then dependent on -- once it comes into effect, the overall issue of the dump material not being available, it will go to a reasonable price.
Saurabh Jain
AnalystsUnderstood. But do you think it also involves imports from U.S ? And currently, what are the political developments between India and U.S. There could be some potential hindrances in terms of hesitation from the government's part in kind of bringing this up and kind of allowing this thing to happen.
Ramakrishnan Mukundan
ExecutivesAll I can say is that this is a mathematical calculation. It doesn't go by country-specific situation. I think it is product by product. I think that is really what has been done. And the quantity of imports from Turkey, U.S. have been very high. In fact, for example, China did not appear in this whole antidumping because China imports were not in the high-volume category.
Saurabh Jain
AnalystsSure. That is useful. One more question I may squeeze in. What is your expectation in terms of the soda capacity addition in China because we are hearing two news pieces. One, there could be Phase 2 of capacity addition in the existing Inner Mongolia capacity. So any color on that?
Ramakrishnan Mukundan
ExecutivesBecause this question is going to come from many. So let me just give a color of at least my understanding of the situation, the policy of Chinese government, as far as the central planning document is concerned, they want a 50% of Chinese capacity of natural and 50% as synthetic. That is the stated position. Now the -- which effectively means another 5 million to 6 million tons of natural has to come on stream. But by the same very token, they have to take out the synthetic capacity to make it a balance. That's what they want to reach. So the news report you're reading in terms of natural capacity coming on stream is in line with what they have set as a stated objective. But the -- what we are not reading and we are not seeing immediately is the closure of the synthetic capacities, which effectively take the whole proportion to 50-50%.
Saurabh Jain
AnalystsUnderstood. But when would these capacities would be coming online? Any more detail on that side?
Ramakrishnan Mukundan
ExecutivesNot really, Saurabh, all I can say is that this is a stated position and the work would have started. Usually it takes 36 months for anything to come on stream. So if you are today in '25, '26, you would expect something of these numbers to happen by '29, '30, It could be delayed. It could come 6 to 8 months faster, but that's where it is, the range of dates. But really for everybody's view the stated policies will be 50-50. Today, it is very much skewed in synthetic. It was 100% synthetic at some point of time. It is 25% natural now. They want to take it 50-50.
Saurabh Jain
AnalystsUnderstood. So what is the reference of this 50%...
Operator
OperatorSorry to interrupt. Sir, we request you to please rejoin the queue if you have further questions.
Saurabh Jain
AnalystsNo, I'm not asking any new question. I'm just trying to take the reference point of the 50% capacity for my own reading purposes. Is it possible to direct to us where this thing is announced by the China government, which document we can refer? [Technical Difficulty]
Operator
OperatorLadies and gentlemen, please stay with us, we seem to have lost the line for the management once again. Ladies and gentlemen, we have now reconnected to the management. We thank you for your patience.
Saurabh Jain
AnalystsYes. Sorry, I was just asking for the reference to where we could read the 50% target share that the China government is aiming.
Ramakrishnan Mukundan
ExecutivesSee that is something which we understand. So if we could -- we'll send you the reference of the site.
Operator
Operator[Operator Instructions] We have our next question from the line of Ankur Periwal from Axis Capital.
Ankur Periwal
AnalystsFirst question is on the U.S. Business. This quarter, again, on a Q-on-Q basis, we saw a sharp dip in EBITDA. I understand you highlighted last time that the domestic share was much higher in Q1 and hence higher EBITDA share. If you can just help us understand better how should one look at this mix and possibly a sustainable number on how this number will move in the coming quarters?
Ramakrishnan Mukundan
ExecutivesSo broadly, as I mentioned, out of that the EBITDA, which was INR 188 crores in the last quarter and is INR 77 crores this quarter. This quarter number is depressed on one account that there was a drawdown of work in progress, which was mainly on account of certain reconfigurations the plant had done. There's nothing to do with sales. It's fundamentally internal work, material work in progress stocks, which have to be drawn down, that led to under absorption of fixed costs. So that is about $5 million there. So you should really treat the INR 77 crores as INR 117 crores broadly in terms of the number, that's what I would say. The rest, I think this quarter, there's an overemphasis on export because export got pushed this quarter has moved into -- previous quarters has moved into this quarter. So that would contribute approximately in my view about another INR 15-odd crores. So in all, I would say it's about -- if I were to correct this, it will be about INR 55-odd core is what would be the normalized run rate at the current pricing.
Ankur Periwal
AnalystsSure, sir. That's helpful. Your earlier comments did mention a higher share of exports. What will be the percentage export share right now versus, let's say, last quarter Q1?
Ramakrishnan Mukundan
ExecutivesUsually, our numbers are almost 50-50. I think this quarter, the SKU, was higher by about 20-odd thousand tons.
Ankur Periwal
AnalystsOkay. That's helpful, sir. Secondly, on the U.K. business, given the shutdown in Lostock operations as well as the pharma grade plant commissioning. One, where are we in terms of time line for the pharma grade plant? And secondly, from a profitability perspective, ex of pharma grade is this INR 40 crores odd EBITDA a sustainable number? Or there could be further positive surprise there?
Ramakrishnan Mukundan
ExecutivesI think INR 40 crores reflects the current state of operation. I think what we will see as a positive move is that the -- in terms of the bicarbonate itself, the volumes -- if you look at the volume chart, broadly the volumes in the bicarbonate have been depressed by almost in my view about 4,000-odd tons for the quarter. I think we will see a pickup in the volume of the salt for bicarb being produced and sold, and that would consistently keep increasing because we also had to switch out from the current internal source of soda ash to externally bought out soda ash and that has meant some reconfiguration, some restatement of the operating rate. That would pick up in the Q3 and reach the final number by Q4 to the steady state. In terms of the salt again, I think you would see first bromine -- first pharmaceutical grade salt being sold in The market in Q3, and we expect that we would normalize this over the period of the next few quarters. So this is going to quarter-on-quarter continue to improve. And also, all the historical issues related to the Lostock soda ash operations, with this quarter, we have actually provisioned for fully. So the reconfiguration is complete, and you would continue to see improved numbers and the numbers will only track up from where it is seen in this quarter.
Operator
OperatorOur next question comes from the line of Vivek Rajamani from Morgan Stanley.
Vivek Rajamani
AnalystsThe first question was on India. Could you just explain why the unit margins in India fell sequentially? Is this more of a seasonality element? Or is this more of a mix issue? Just wanted some more color on that. That's the first question.
Ramakrishnan Mukundan
ExecutivesIn terms of the margin itself -- Vivek, the issue fundamentally is the volumes are higher but the prices were down. So overall, if you look at it, the revenue has tracked up. And also compared to previous quarter, the margin is down primarily because of the pricing being continuing to be under pressure. And we do expect that the prices have more or less stabilized within the Indian market. So we don't anticipate any further shifts in this margin number. The higher volumes would continue to track. So we should be able to sort of continue to deliver the current state of performance in terms of outputs.
Vivek Rajamani
AnalystsSure, sir. So just to clarify, you would expect India to be operating at this level going forward, assuming the market stays...
Ramakrishnan Mukundan
ExecutivesNo, the market is staying stable because the -- see, there are two issues which have happened. One is the antidumping notice itself has given a salutary effect in terms of imports coming down a bit and the pressure on pricing going away. So to that extent, I think we will see that the numbers are more or less maintained in terms of the margin and pricing and volume, of course, we will try to do whatever best we can.
Vivek Rajamani
AnalystsSure, sir. And the second question was, you've obviously explained with respect to the U.K. part of the business now getting better incrementally. But just wanted to understand, you've given a target of about INR 600 crores of savings. I think you previously mentioned that you're fairly confident of doing that despite how the market would broadly behave. Given the updated views that you have of the industry, I just wanted to just check once again on the INR 600 crores target for this year? And how you feel about achieving that by the end of fiscal '26?
Ramakrishnan Mukundan
ExecutivesSo in terms of the additional number of INR 200-odd crores, as I said is because of capacity, that is more or less playing out exactly as we said. There's no change in that number. In terms of the fixed costs, I think probably we would be there or thereabouts, maybe about INR 30 crores, INR 40-odd crores because that is mainly the issue related to the rupee now depreciating with the U.K. pound and other pound, not really in local currency, our numbers are tracking what we had anticipated. So we will have an impact of the -- on the fixed cost side. And I think the big issue is going to be in terms of the -- what I would call the other reconfiguration we had to do that has probably been partly eaten by the pricing pressure in U.S. export pricing. So overall, I think we would be in a broad sense instead of INR 600 crores we would say that we should be there about 75% of the numbers we gave more or less.
Operator
OperatorOur next question comes from the line of Abhijit Akella, from Kotak Securities.
Abhijit Akella
AnalystsSir, just with regard to this upcoming U.S. contract renegotiation, would it be possible to just share your preliminary thoughts about what one might expect in terms of direction of pricing? And also, any rough sense we could get regarding how much the differential between an average export price and domestic prices at present in the U.S.
Ramakrishnan Mukundan
ExecutivesIn terms of the negotiation, there is a final leg, Abhijit. I can only say that the contracting on the domestic is progressing well, and it has been a range bound. On the export side, I think while many markets are okay. I think it's turning out to be tough in terms of the Southeast Asian market. So we'll come back with specific number on the export side only. The domestic should remain pretty much in the range we have been doing in the last 2 years. Yes.
Abhijit Akella
AnalystsOkay, fine. And with regard to this INR 1,500 crores NCDs that we are proposing to issue, is this for refinancing some of the existing debt? Or what exactly is the thought process behind that?
Ramakrishnan Mukundan
ExecutivesNo. This is a general purpose in NCD because we have plants in India and other places, which we will highlight as soon as the we sort of get all the approvals in place. But clearly, to give a broad color, I think our aim is to debottleneck India and also ensure Indian capacity goes up in phases by 15%. And again, additional 35% will be 50% increase in Indian capacity. So we will be coming back with the details of the same by the third quarter of -- third quarter results. And we also would be looking at adding silicate capacity, both in Cuddalore and in Mithapur. So we need to grow the business and this is only for a very general purpose short-term general purpose.
Abhijit Akella
AnalystsGot it. The CapEx numbers, INR 1,000 crores for this year is what we have projected. Any updated sense we could get for this year and next year?
Ramakrishnan Mukundan
ExecutivesIt's going to be around that number, Abhijit. I think the issue is that in the third quarter, we'll give you much better color. The reason being that we are also reworking on growth in India. So I think let's come back with all the comprehensive number to you. As I mentioned, that we do believe that there is a component of growth, which we should be doing in India in terms of the soda ash at least another 0.5 million tons. 150,000 tons of that should come very quickly. The 350,000 tons will take a little time, but i think we will bring it in two steps. Then we are also looking in terms of augmenting bicarb capacity as well as silica, so there are 3 vectors of growth: FOS capacity of 5,000 tons of L-55 is being commissioned. So that unit should continue to grow on its own until it reaches 80% utilization of the current 5,000 tons we have and P-95 and L-55 5,000 tons has been commissioned. I think we will continue to run the current unit. So right now, the focus is entirely ensuring that the FOS unit quickly reaches its set of 80% utilization so that we can add another 5,000 tons. And we will be adding 2 phases, one in Cuddalore about 42-odd thousand tons and about 60-odd thousand tons in Mithapur of silica and at the same time, adding 500,000 ton of soda ash. But these are numbers we are working through, we'll come back to you with specific plan and all this is general purpose fund raise to make sure that we get through these programs in time.
Operator
OperatorOur next question is from the line of Naushad Chaudhary from Aditya Birla Asset Management Company.
Naushad Chaudhary
AnalystsFirst on the U.S. normalized EBITDA you said to earlier participant, was it $55 million annual you said or INR 55 crores quarterly run rate is the new normal at current price?
Ramakrishnan Mukundan
ExecutivesThere's a 77 number there. And what I said was there are two one-offs this quarter. One is about $5 million of working capital change. And let's say, our overexposure of exports to domestic and both put together is about INR 50 crores, INR 55 crores of depression which has happened, which should adjust in the normal course of business.
Naushad Chaudhary
AnalystsOkay. So on a full year basis, should we expect the similar rate which we had last year with 5%, 10% deviation? Or should it be more than that?
Ramakrishnan Mukundan
ExecutivesNo, I think you need to look at the current quarter as a starting point and with adjustment of the figure I said, I think that is the way you should look at the figure now because it did then sort of also adjust for the pricing changes between last year and this year.
Naushad Chaudhary
AnalystsOkay. On the power and freight cost side, I can see the reduction in the overall global power costs which is reflecting in our numbers. But at the same time, freight costs also globally has gone down meaningfully. How should I read this or is there any different kind of arrangement happens in our business on the freight side?
Nandakumar Tirumalai
ExecutivesI can take that Mukund, the power and fuel part.
Ramakrishnan Mukundan
ExecutivesYes.
Nandakumar Tirumalai
ExecutivesPower and fuel, last year, we had the U.K. plant working for the entire 6 months' time and fourth quarter also. So that's a major savings in U.K. So the drop in power and fuel is mainly U.K. and the freight is almost same as last year's Q2.
Naushad Chaudhary
AnalystsOkay. And last on the on the soda ash price point of view. What do you think what can lead to further drop in the prices from this level. Any possibility of it going down further from the current level?
Ramakrishnan Mukundan
ExecutivesSo let me take that. I think as far as domestic market is concerned, I think we would expect that to be range bound. I think in exports, we do see that the intensity of competition being very high in Southeast Asia. And that intensity will continue because the bulk of the Chinese material seems to be flowing into that market. That market is getting impacted fairly strongly. It also is flowing into what I would call as Northeast Asia, which is basically markets around Taiwan, Korea and Japan. So basically, it's the Asian market, which is under pressure, except excluding India, and that is -- and that's because of the flow-through of the Chinese situation, Chinese market situation.
Operator
OperatorOur next question comes from the line of Sumant Kumar from Motilal Oswal.
Sumant Kumar
AnalystsSir, can you talk on stand-alone operating performance when we see Y-o-Y significant improvement. So how is the continuation of salt this quarter, the operating profit side? And also soda ash?
Ramakrishnan Mukundan
ExecutivesI think this run rate should continue. Sumant, I think as I mentioned, we expect the current rate to continue. And there could be slight improvement because of the -- our utilization, there's still headroom for us to grow the bicarb business with the current capacities we have, there is still unsold -- let's say, there is headroom to grow the new F-55 capacity, which has come. So those orders will flow. So that will improve the numbers as we speak. Otherwise, we are pretty much close to near full utilization of whatever we can do in soda ash, in every other product, including silicate, I think the fundamentals what we are able to do will be these incremental ones, but they will play through Q3 and Q4.
Sumant Kumar
AnalystsWhat I'm asking this quarter you see Y-o-Y, the salt operating performance improvement and soda ash improvement in this quarter, what was the key reason for that?
Ramakrishnan Mukundan
ExecutivesNo, I think the key reason is basically the volume last year, the same quarter last year. We had -- while the rains were heavy this year also, but the damage because of the rain, which has happened in Mithapur is onetime issue has not happened. And hence, I think those numbers are not that depressed. So I think fundamentally, you've got to look at the India number of -- if you look at the India number for the soda ash broadly, it is up quarter-on-quarter -- basically from previous year same quarter to this quarter by about 30-odd thousand tons. And similarly, if you look at the salt number, it is almost up by about 50-odd thousand tons. That's because of the new capacity which have come. It has nothing to do with rain. So really, I think that those are the two drivers. The other driver, of course, is the improvement and increase in the number in the bicarb. Bicarb also has grown by 14,000 tons. But if you ask me going forward, where is the room to grow further? Bicarbonate has room to grow further. And also FOS, which is not listed in this has room to go further because the 5,000 tons has been commissioned this month. So those would be the ones that will drive the growth in the domestic market. So I believe the current units which have been delivering both for Q1 and Q2 in soda ash and the bicarb and salt will continue at a similar clip and the growth will fundamentally be driven of the capacity available in bicarb, growing the market and also growing the FOS market.
Sumant Kumar
AnalystsImprovement in salt also operating levels, Y-o-Y or Q-o-Q?
Ramakrishnan Mukundan
ExecutivesSalt will continue to be at the current rate, the current rate of sales, and you can take H1 number of salt, Broadly, if you look at it, the similar numbers should repeat in H2 overall.
Operator
OperatorOur next question comes from the line of Saket Kapoor from Kapoor Company.
Saket Kapoor
AnalystsSir, as you were mentioning about incremental volume from the bicarb also, so there was some regulatory changes with respect to flue gas treatment at the power plant. So are we continuing with our supply to the players in power plants? Or how are the installations going ahead? And if you could just give some color.
Ramakrishnan Mukundan
ExecutivesWe've not had major changes in that and our ability to sort of place additional and increase the market is continuing. Bicarb is underpenetrated product in India and its applications are increasing, and we are working with all segments, not just with flue gas treatment, it is a across all segments.
Saket Kapoor
AnalystsOkay. Sir, there was a global Soda Ash Conference that was scheduled in the month of October. So if you could give us some color what are the key takeaways from the same? And sir, taking into account the global inventory levels, they were at alarming 1.7 million -- some number was there. So how has that moved post the second quarter? I mean post September onwards, how are the inventory globally shaping up? If you could just give some color on the same.
Ramakrishnan Mukundan
ExecutivesThe inventory issue is mainly in China, it is 1.7 million. I think the Chinese situation is fundamentally being driven off the issues with that market as well as Malaysia, Vietnam,where they put up solar capacity -- solar PV capacity, that's coming under pressure because of tariff regime. Hopefully, because of the tariff issue is getting resolved, I think we could see easing of that. The main issue there has been that exports out of the specific product had come to almost stand still and that we believe will move in the positive direction. So that's the positive call. We don't anticipate it to worsen beyond this. But if at all, if some of these trade and tariff-related frictions come down, I think we would expect that the numbers will improve. And the pressure is mainly in China and Southeast Asia.
Saket Kapoor
AnalystsOkay, sir. And lastly, on the debt part, the net debt has moved up. So how much is on account of repricing of the currency? And what are the current year maturity? So what would be we likely closing the year in terms of the net debt number?
Ramakrishnan Mukundan
ExecutivesNandu will answer this. Nandu?
Nandakumar Tirumalai
ExecutivesThank you Mukund. So the debt has gone up in the H1 compared to March ending mainly on currency part. Of course, INR 250 crores is the impact of the currency impact and the remaining is because of the higher inventory levels we had in H1. And some part may normalize of inventory part in H2. Currency part, I can't comment.
Saket Kapoor
AnalystsOkay. So what are the current maturities? And how should we likely be closing the year just on a constant currency basis?
Nandakumar Tirumalai
ExecutivesThere's no long-term debt falling due in second half. The next debt falling due is in next December '26 only. So what is falling dues is already repaid now and refinanced that now. Second half would be the same loan in H1 in H2. And working capital is also there. So long term, nothing is being falling due in H2.
Saket Kapoor
AnalystsOkay, sir. And the key takeaways, anything you want to mention about global Soda Ash Conference, where we must have also participated.
Ramakrishnan Mukundan
ExecutivesYes. I think the key takeaways are the following that the reconfiguration around the globe is underway. I think that reconfiguration has begun but many of the unremunerated capacities are to yet be addressed both in Europe and also now increasingly in China. I think that process should get underway. We expect that normalization of this process to happen in the next 18 months or so. And secondly, I think the medium-term view remains positive, while there have been, let's say, some kind of a pullback from the sustainability commitment in several parts of the world. In general, the customers are moving ahead with that. And there is also an anticipation that friction on tariffs may come down going forward, which should ease the market conditions going forward. So overall, the mood is that it is going to remain range bound in the current level and it will start to ease of the geopolitics and the pressures come off due to reconfiguring of capacities both in Europe and in China.
Operator
OperatorLadies and gentlemen, we will take that as our last question for today. I would now like to hand the conference over to R. Mukundan for closing comments. Over to you, sir.
Ramakrishnan Mukundan
ExecutivesThank you. Thank you for joining the call today. As highlighted, I think while the immediate term of pressure on the soda ash pricing would continue and it's going to remain range bound. We are looking forward to normalization as we move forward both from the capacity front and as well as the geopolitic tariff front. In addition to which, we welcome the move of ADD from DGFT. We hope that this resolves itself. And over a period of time, we continue to be positive on the Indian market. And hence, by quarter 3, we'll come back with certain capacity additions, which we plan on in doing in the Indian market. Part of the capital raise is also to ensure that we are adequately supported for that move. And our endeavor is going to continue to be move in a very capital-efficient and cost-efficient model to continue to grow the business. Thank you all, and see you in Q3 FY '26 results.
Operator
OperatorThank you. On behalf of Tata Chemicals Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you all for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.
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