Tata Steel Limited (TATLY) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Tata Steel Investor Call. Please note that this meeting is being recorded. All the attendees' audio and video has been disabled from the back end and will be enabled subsequently. I would now like to hand the conference over to Ms. Samita Shah. Thank you, and over to you, madam.

Thanks. Thanks, [ Kenshuk ]. Good afternoon to all our viewers joining us from the West of India, and good evening to those of you in India as well as the Far East. I'm Samita, and I'm delighted to welcome you to this call today, which I'm hosting on behalf of Tata Steel. We have with us our CEO and MD, Mr. T.V. Narendran; and our ED and CFO, Mr. Koushik Chatterjee. As many of you are aware, our Board has approved the long-term strategy for India yesterday, and we had also issued a press release. If you've not seen it, it's on our website, and you can have a look at it there. I know you have a lot of questions, and we've been flooded by calls actually since yesterday evening. And in the interest of transparency, we thought it would just be better to do this call and answer all your queries. So with that, we will just move on to questions. I will hand it over to [ Kenshuk ], and we will take the audio questions followed by the chat questions. Thank you, and over to you, [ Kenshuk ].

[Operator Instructions] The first question for today is from Sumangal Nevatia of Kotak.

Firstly, congratulations to the management for the Board approval. Sir, my first question is on the NINL expansion. We've seen the Board approval, but can we get some more details with respect to the time line, the capital cost, the iron ore sourcing, on these 3 to 4 parameters, please?

I'll comment and then Koushik can add to that. So basically, the Board -- we went to the Board with our proposal, which we've got in-principle approval for, the final numbers we will finalize by March. There are a few issues that we need to sort out. We're also at the final stages of the environment clearance, which we should get in the next few weeks. So the details in terms of the investment amount, et cetera, we will make by March. But basically, a lot of the engineering work has started, the enabling work has also started, and that's why we wanted to move ahead faster and that's what was the clearance from the Board for. So you will get more details in March. Koushik, do you want to add anything more to what I just said?

Yes. I think the -- as far as the approval is concerned, it was more in-principle for the completion of the engineering work, which is pretty advanced. And as Naren mentioned, that by March, we should be there. We also can talk about the configuration in general with 2 rebar mills, one wire rod mill and coil mill. So it will be a complete finishing end-to-end and also the fact that we will have provisions for Phase 2 at a later point in time. And I think the timing and the cost of it is -- at this point of time, we would rather go through the entire engineering process and come back. And as Naren mentioned, the EC should be coming by 3 to 4 weeks' time.

Also, the iron ore will be from the Koira mines, which is the info that we got from -- when we acquired Neelachal. So the iron ore will come from there. It's 4.8 million capacity. And with the existing capacity that we have, plus some debottlenecking that we do, we basically expect to take Neelachal to 6 million tonnes at the end of this project from the 1 million tonne at which it is currently.

Understood. Sir, just a follow-up. So with respect to iron ore, the approvals are in place for the extended capacity and will it come parallelly, number one?

Yes.

And then in terms of the mix, it will be broadly 50-50 between flats and longs?

No. It will only be longs. Basically, it will have to 2 rebar mills of 1 million tonnes each. It will have a coil mill of 0.5 million tonnes, which is rebars and coils, which we think is very important for the downstream businesses that we've developed of service centers to service a construction business, and then it will have a state-of-the-art wire rod mill. So basically, this is to enhance our long products capacity, which is currently we have about 3 million -- 3.4 million in Jamshedpur, 1 million in the Usha Martin plant that we acquired and 1 million in Neelachal. So we are at around INR 5.4 million. We will add this 6 million and -- I mean we'll add almost 5 million, so we will cross 10 million tonnes of long products, which will support our wires business, which is currently at 0.6 million and is expected to go to 1 million tonnes in the next few years. And it will also help us supplement what we are making out of the Combi-Mill in Jamshedpur, which has just been commissioned, which is another 0.5 million tonne of high-end automotive grade long products. So I think -- and then as you know, we have the Ludhiana plant coming up in the next few months, that will add another 0.8 million tonnes. So basically, this is more to expand our long products from the current levels. And we feel that given the investment in infrastructure in India, the strong franchise that we have, both in retail and with customers, et cetera, in longs, we think that we need to add more long product capacity and that's what the plan is.

Understood, sir. Sir, my next -- second question is on the MOU with Lloyds. So generally, we've never done growth in terms of steel in a JV form. So this is something new. So I just want to understand what is in for us, how have we selected Lloyds and generally, is -- in the long term, should we look at future expansions possibly in Maharashtra, in a JV form? Or just some more details on this entire MOU, please?

So the conversation started with the pellet plant, the BRPL pellet plant, which is what we wanted to acquire, which is next to the Kalinganagar plant, it's 4 million tonnes of pellets, and we can leverage our iron ore. They also have more than a pellet plant, they also have a slurry pipeline from Barbil to Kalinganagar. So the value for us is the slurry pipeline and the pellet plant, and it's next to both Neelachal and Kalinganagar for us. So given our footprint -- current footprint and potential footprint in Kalinganagar where we can make up to 25 million tonnes of steel between the original Kalinganagar site and the Neelachal side. Having that pellet capacity there is very helpful. We already have about 6 million, 6.5 million tonnes, and this 4 million makes it about 10 million tonnes. That is where the conversation started. But as you are aware, the group is -- that group is very active in Maharashtra, in Gadchiroli, they've done a great job in developing an iron ore mine, where they've grown from over 2 million to 2.5 million tonnes to about 25 million tonnes in the last 2 years. They've also built slurry pipelines there. So there are a lot of opportunities for us to work together both for Maharashtra and beyond because of the fact that they have access to the iron ore and that iron ore is available for them going forward. That is one part. Secondly, there is a lot more iron ore in that region. Lloyds has an ambition to build flat products and long products complex there. So there are various ways in which we can work together with them. We bring in the expertise on the market. They are more on the upstream side. So there are opportunities there. Plus there's potential to look at expanding in Maharashtra, if we have a business case for it. So there is land available there. The Lloyds Group is already active there, and that's what this MOU set out to explore. What else could we do together because that brings us closer to the Western and the Southern markets than we are today. Koushik, again, you want to supplement what I said?

No, I think that summarizes it. And I think the MOU also states clearly that the greenfield plant will be Tata Steel's. The -- our assistance to Lloyds on the setting up of the -- their project, and also on the offtake side gives us further market access and also work synergistically on the mining and the infrastructure area together.

Next question is from Ashish Kejriwal of Nuvama.

Best wishes for the future project. I have 3 questions again. See, I understand that it's not possible right now to give me concrete numbers in terms of our expansion plan. But is it fair to assume or is it fair to comment that the CapEx plan, which we have highlighted, especially 4.8 million tonne NINL expansion, 2.5 million tonnes slab caster, 0.7 million tonne downstream capacity and 1 million tonne HISarna technology at Jaipur -- at Jamshedpur. So all these CapEx could be in the range ballpark number, Is it INR 50,000 crores, INR 60,000 crores or something which we can see that we can do in the next 4 years?

Yes. So Ashish, we -- the biggest of the lot is the Neelachal expansion. So we'll give you the exact numbers by March or so when we've got the final numbers vetted and cleared by the Board. The Meramandali expansion is slightly different. That's more -- that's just thin slab caster and hot strip mill. I mean it's a TSCR but a very advanced TSCR for thin hot-rolled coils up to 0.7, 0.8 mm. So that's -- that is more just a mill. So what's happening in Meramandali is we have a blast furnace due for relining in the next few years. And when we reline the blast furnace, we expect to increase the volume in Meramandali by 1 million tonnes, okay? We have 1.5 million tonnes of slabs extra in Kalinganagar, which we are currently sending to U.K. because in U.K., we are still building the EAF. So in the next few years, the EAF will be built in the U.K. We won't need those slabs for the U.K. So we have 1.5 million tonnes of slabs available from Kalinganagar. We will have another 1 million tonnes of extra steel available from Meramandali. That's 2.5 million tonnes of steel available, which will get converted into finished products. So basically, you will send -- you would use the extra slabs from Kalinganagar, extra steel from Meramandali, do the rebalancing, use a hot strip mill there and the thin slab caster that we're building, so that Meramandali capacity will go to 6.5 million or so -- 6 million, 6.5 million tonnes. So that's basically the plan there. As far as the HRGAL-9 is concerned, that's coming up in Tarapur. So that's a downstream facility. As we've said, we want to be more and more present in downstream. The BlueScope acquisition was also in that line, the tinplate expansion is in that line, the Combi-Mill and the -- that's downstream for long products. And this HRGAL is the down -- basically, again, it will be the first of its kind in India hot-rolled galvanized in a very advanced plant, not the batch process, which many people do today. So again, there, the CapEx for that will also be just for a downstream facility. So they won't be significant. HISarna is, we believe it's going to be a game-changing technology. The advantage of HISarna is you can use -- firstly, you can make iron without having a coke plant, a sinter plant, a pellet plant, et cetera. You are basically having this HISarna furnace, which you can charge iron ore and coal and the flexibility on coal is very high. You can use the coking coals available in India. You don't need to use imported coking coal and you can make hot metal out of it. We are already doing 60,000 tonnes per annum in Netherlands. It's been a technology we've been working on for the last 10 years with good success in the last 2, 3 years. So now we are confident that the 60,000 tonne plant that we are running in Netherlands can be scaled up to a 1 million tonne plant in India. In Jamshedpur because we have the surrounding infrastructure available in Jamshedpur, so it's easier to build a plant there and we expect to use this 1 million tonnes extra that we'll get from HISarna in the steel melt shops in Jamshedpur. So that's basically the thinking. Again, that -- the HISarna is INR 2,000 crores to INR 3,000 crores kind of project. So it's not like a mega project kind of thing. So the main one to go back to your question is basically the Neelachal expansion. All the others are not so significant. Even if you look at the TSCR that we're talking about is just a TSCR. It's not like you're building the whole upstream along with it. You're expanding the blast furnace through the relining.

Understood, sir. And sir, second question is in terms of pellet plant, we have seen 2 months back only Lloyds Metals, they have bought this 49.9% at an implied market cap of something like INR 992 crores whereas we have paid for our share around INR 1,271 crores, approximately 28% higher than what they have bought just 2 months back. So is it just because it's nearby we are paying some kind of premium for the same kind of asset. So I'm unable to understand that. This is one. And secondly, in parallel to that, when we are saying that we have a collaboration with Lloyds in setting up 6 million tonnes at Maharashtra in phases. So is it the same 3 million tonnes, which also they are working on these things? Will that be a part of it? Or this is entirely 6 million tonnes separate, which we are talking?

I'll ask Koushik to answer the first part. The second part is no. They are already working on their plant, which is 5 million tonnes flat and 1 million tonne, 1.2 million tonnes long. We have said we'll work with them on that, not to put money into that. But we can work together in different ways. It could also be that they make the steel and we be the route to market in some sense. So there could be many arrangements. We could run the plant for them, whatever. So there are many ways we can work together. The 6 million is a greenfield plant, which is what Koushik said, that will -- that if we build, will be a Tata Steel plant, which can get plugged into the iron ore that they have and look at what is it that we can do there. But that's still -- that's a part which we want to explore in more detail through the MOU as well as look at what are the other ways to work together. But on the first part of your question, I'll ask Koushik to respond, on the equity.

On the first part, actually, we have bought it at book, almost at book. And more importantly, if you look at it, so I wouldn't know the valuation equation which they have bought it for. But if you look at the BRPL, they -- we have got almost at book. Second is it gives us a tremendous cost advantage. So it is almost about INR 60 crores a month. So our payback is very quick and fast on the investments. And of course, we are 50.1%, so the earnings of that will also reflect as far as the value is concerned. So taking all -- taken together, we have considered it to be very attractive for us to get in, apart from the fact that it also brings a pipeline -- a slurry pipeline, which is -- which can be used effectively.

Sir, what is the total EV for that? Are we considering any debt also in that because the number which I'm talking about Lloyds is in the public domain, 2 months back only they have done. So that's the reason I'm saying 28% premium for the same facility.

That you have to ask them about their part. All that I can say is what we have acquired and the EV is as per the book. So it's based on 1x book almost. So for us, that was very important because it reflects the replacement value was much higher. The time value was much higher. And the day when we complete the acquisition post all the regulatory approvals, it's a savings of about INR 50 crores, INR 60 crores a month. So that gives you the maths very clearly, that's a 1-year payback, which to build would have taken much longer time.

Next question from Ritesh Shah from Investec.

I just wanted to have some clarity on the JV. Is it fair to understand Lloyds will get land and iron ore, Tata Steel will put in the CapEx and take care of distribution. Is that a fair assumption?

So let me explain, Ritesh. Naren, if I can.

Yes, yes, please.

So we -- there are 2 parts to what we have announced. One is the BRPL where we've got in through Thriveni and got into the pellet plant. That is the JV. That is a JV where we are 50.1% and Lloyds is 49.9%. That is in the business at this point of time on the pellet conversion and slurry pipeline. Then what we have said is we have signed an MOU with Lloyds that there is scope of doing various things. One of the things is how do we assess Lloyds' own project which is Lloyds' own in Lloyds itself of the 4.5 million tonnes of flat products and long products numbers that they are -- the plant that they're talking about. This is something that we would help -- we can help Lloyds in setting it up because we have the ability to help set up steel plants. And also in terms of the offtake for the sales of the products, which will also give add to our portfolio. This is not a JV. As far as the 6 million tonne of the steel plant is concerned, this will be -- it is separate to the Lloyds own plant. And that we will evaluate because there will be a lot of things, prefeasibility, feasibility and then looking at all the issues to set up that plant. And then if we want to also work together in the mining space and in the mining infrastructure space in Maharashtra, in Gadchiroli, and that we will figure out which is the vehicle. That vehicle could be BRPL, it could be a separate vehicle. We will figure out how do we do. So these are 3 or 4 parts where we said we will work together, and that's why we have an MOU. Now each of these MOU will then move towards a more definitive position based on the full evaluation, business case, investment case, who does what, et cetera, et cetera. Just thought I'll clarify it.

Yes, sir. Sir, my question is specifically on the third part, what you elaborated to, will our intent be to do a JV for the 6 million tonnes? Or is it like early to comment on it? Basically, the question is more coming from a cash flow and a CapEx standpoint.

No, that 6 million tonnes, we will -- we may choose to do it in 2 phases also, 3 plus 3. And that will be a Tata Steel venture, and that is what we want to do at this point of time.

But before -- correct. So before we decide all that, we obviously need to address what we're just asking, what happens -- what about the iron ore supply, what cost will that iron ore be, et cetera, et cetera. So all that is what we need to work out as we translate this MOU into something more definitive.

Okay. Sir, just last follow-up, 2 questions. So whatever we do on the third part of the equation, will that debt get consolidated on our books. Basically, any color on the structuring over there? That's one. Second is, are we relying on Lloyds' existing coal block, I think it's called Surjapur. Or is it...

It's Surjagarh, not pur.

Iron ore block or any other we are expecting or exploring? Or can there be some allocation with -- from the state government wherein both the companies could be a beneficiary? And third is the quality of ore in Maharashtra is not great, given the Fe thresholds have been reduced to almost like 35%. How does it change the economics for us? Historically, mining profitability has been one of the key levers for us. So would it change the underlying economics? So there's 3 parts to the question.

Let me give you a broader picture on each of them. First is if we do the project of the 3 plus 3 subject to iron ore, it's obviously an investment case and that will be on Tata Steel, whether it will be debt or whether it will be the cash flows of Tata Steel, we will come later and clarify, we do that. Second is, as far as the iron ore is concerned, that's also an area of participation between us and Lloyds. So in what comes out of Surjagarh, I think they are aiming to be at about 25 million tonnes shortly. What proportion of that we can tie up for our plan, which will take some years to do. Second is working with the government in figuring out what we can do together. And I think it will be a bit premature to talk about it at this point of time. And third, to your point, on the quality of iron ore, it is, on beneficiation it is reaching up to 67% of Fe is what I gather from Lloyds' leadership and therefore, we will be looking at all 3 parts individually and collectively to make the investment case.

[Operator Instructions] Next question is from Pinakin Parekh of HSBC.

Congratulations, sir, on the growth CapEx. My first question is, sir, can you give us a sense of the time lines on this entire group of projects and when can we see the commissioning? Is it over 3 years, 4 years, 5 years?

So the hot-rolled galvanizing obviously will happen the fastest because that's just a downstream facility, okay? The Neelachal, if we get the Board, the final go ahead with all the numbers, et cetera, by March, obviously, we're looking at 3 to 4 years for the execution of that project. If you look at because it's a big project. And if you look at the thin slab caster in Meramandali, we will align it with the relining of the blast furnace in Meramandali, I think, which is expected in '28, '29. So that will be timed along with that.

My second question is on the NINL expansion. Now historically, most long steel expansions in India have not been through the blast furnace route. So in your view, what are the advantages that you see from a blast furnace route on the long steel? What kind of product portfolio would be there? And more importantly, NINL has its own captive iron ore mine. So by the time this expansion comes through, will it be fed through the captive iron ore ramp-up from NINL's own mine? And hence, the profitability should be similar to the existing Jamshedpur Kalinganagar operations.

Yes. So the -- yes, as we answered earlier, the NINL expansion is being fed by the NINL mines. We are expanding the production at the NINL mines, and we will expand it to cater to the requirements at NINL. So that's not a problem. And we have that iron ore available. And like you said, the profitability will be similar to what we see in Jamshedpur and Kalinganagar, that is one part. The second part is -- yes, I mean in India, everything exists. You have induction furnace based long products, you have DRI, EAF-based long products, DRI induction furnace based long products. We are ourselves building an EAF based plant in Ludhiana, so we have all options available. But with own iron ore with the scale that we are building in Neelachal, because eventually Neelachal will be a 10 million tonne long products plant. We believe we will get a lot of cost efficiencies. The other thing is, as you know, we have a very profitable franchise in our Tata Tiscon retail. Today, we are selling more than 200,000 tonnes a month in retail at prices much higher than what we sell to the construction companies because of our retail network with almost 10,000, 12,000 dealers. We have this Aashiyana platform where we are selling almost INR 400 crores, INR 500 crores a month of Tata Tiscon online. So we have a lot of routes to market, which are at much more attractive prices than the traditional long products. Secondly, we are going to build a very high-quality wire rod mill there, which will help us in very high-end wire rods. Our downstream wires business is very strong in auto-grade wires, and we want to expand there, look at products like tire cord, et cetera. We are already one of the leaders in India on tire bead wires. So there are a lot of opportunities there. And for that, you need blast furnace-based production because that's the best production, best process route for the qualities that we want to produce. And the third line there is a rebar and coil line, which we already have about 18, 20 centers, service centers in India now servicing construction sites for just ready-to-use material. And for those materials, you can derive greater efficiencies, if we can supply rebars and coils. Today, all the rebars in India are in straight length. So these rebars and coils is how it happens internationally, and this line is for that. So the product mix is very carefully chosen for Neelachal to make best use of the quality of input we get through the blast furnace route, get the advantages of scale economies and build the most advanced mills that we can have. So I -- we believe that there's a strong business case for it.

Just to add to you, Naren, Pinakin, I think we will also be repeating the blast furnace of Kalinganagar in here. So it's one blast furnace and therefore, the productivity and the cost levels will be much higher and much better than...

And since we're repeating the blast furnace, we can do it much faster. You don't have to do the engineering. It's there. So it's use the same 6,000 cubic meter blast furnace that we built in Kalinganagar.

Understood. And last question on the Maharashtra 6 million tonne potential project. What are the things you want to see happen or clear -- get clarity on before you take the investment decision?

Most important thing will be the iron ore because to see the availability because if you don't have iron ore, you'd rather build closer to the coast, and that's what we are doing at Kalinganagar. If you see the center of gravity of Tata Steel is shifting more and more towards the sea because that gives us optionality on raw materials. So if you look at the Kalinganagar complex between Neelachal and Kalinganagar, the original complex, there'll be about 25 million tonnes in the future. So -- which is pretty close to the sea. So similarly, we would expand closer to the sea, but here because it's in the midst of a lot of iron ore, there is an opportunity there, plus it's closer to the finish markets in the South and the West. So it all depends on what is the conversation on the iron ore, what is the cost at which iron ore now is available. The quality that you said, as Koushik mentioned earlier, can be beneficiated. We are familiar with the iron ore, we are familiar with the technology used to beneficiate it. So we are looking at all that. All that is the detail that we will work out through this MOU before we make a final call.

The next question from [indiscernible] Singh of IIFL.

Just following up on the earlier answer. Sir, when you said that you would be looking at iorn ore availability, does that mean you with Lloyds as a JV partner be interested in participating in auctions in Maharashtra as well as the fact that Lloyds currently, while it has high-grade ore reserves, but it's not enough for long to continue a 25 million tonne space for which they will be beneficiating. So would you also be waiting for the beneficiation plant to set up to get a sense if it's operating at the scale at which you want to or going into auctions also is a possibility, you don't need to wait for the plant to be set up?

No. So if I just take it, Naren.

Yes.

I think the first point of it is that how the iron ore play will be in Gadchiroli, we will see and therefore, I think we will have to figure out based on what routes are looked at for the iron ore. I think the Lloyds Surjagarh, which gets into 25 million tonnes, including beneficiation. Our plant, which we will build will also take some years. So therefore, I think there is a good opportunity to sequence one versus the other and then look at what's the leverage and the synergies that we can do between ourselves and Lloyds as far as iron ore sourcing is concerned. Once that visibility is clear, the investment decision for the steel plant will be clear.

Understood.

Just to add to what Koushik said. See, these are all optionalities that we are creating for ourselves because while we have our own iron ore, we have some iron ore post 2030. We also want to have optionalities with us because, obviously, when our iron ore mines go up for auction in 2030, we need -- we want to have optionalities so that we are not limited with 1 or 2 choices.

Just a follow-up on this, sir, I think a few weeks back, there were talks in the ministry that in the auctioning regime can switch to capping the premiums at 50% and move to a upfront payment-based bidding. Have you heard anything more from the ministry on that? Or it's just in the draft papers right now?

No, we've not heard anything directly, but I think what is clear is that what is happening today is not sustainable, right? The whole merchant mining business has died because if everyone's bidding 100% and 150% of market price, there's no business case for merchant mining. It can only work if at all for captive miners. But even for captive miners to pay 150% market price for iron ore and then to try and make money on selling steel again, it's not a great model, right? So something has to give. And that's why we've also been keeping some options open. We do have some mines, which we won through auction. We have mines which we've got through acquisitions. So we will also wait and see what is the best way forward rather than get committed at very high premiums even while the policy is still evolving. I think this has happened in coal in the past. And I think we're waiting to see how this plays out in the future. So it's a space we think there will be some policy changes over the next 4 or 5 years. Otherwise, we will struggle to sustain it in the current format. And it's a pity because India has so much high-quality iron ore. And if the economics kills the development of that iron ore, I think it's a great disservice to the country.

My second question is, largely, just to get an idea. I mean, this is the, I think, first big greenfield project, which would take in Maharashtra it comes to that. So what kind of CapEx intensity is currently there? I mean earlier we used to talk about $800 per tonne. Obviously, USD/INR has depreciated quite a bit. Do you think the range -- I'm pretty sure engineering work is not done. So to just understand, from my understanding a ballpark range, it's still at $800 per tonne? Or do you think $600, $700 is doable for a greenfield flats project, let's say, in Maharashtra?

So it depends totally on the configuration, because oftentimes when you look at these numbers, the question is what are you building? If you're building a high-end hot strip mill and a high-end cold rolling mill, you'll spend a lot of money. If you're building a thin slab caster, thin rolling mill, you'll spend less money. So it really depends on the configuration. Are you including the oxygen plant in that? Or are you saying that is separate? Are you including some of the other utilities, which are required for a steel plant, are you not? So I don't want to get into that until we finally decide on the configuration. But just as an aside, even today, Tata Steel is consuming 2 million tonnes of steel in Maharashtra between Tarapur and Khopoli. So we are already significantly present on the West Coast. And this, in some sense, gives us some upstream optionalities on the West Coast, if not on the West Coast, in Maharashtra, plus it allows us to service the downstream market. So today, a lot of the steel moves from Jamshedpur, Meramandali, Kalinganagar to Tarapur and Khopoli. So having a plant closer to those facilities also gives us a lot of advantages.

The next question is from Amit Murarka of Axis Capital.

I hope I am audible.

Your voice is pretty faint, Amit.

Yes. Can you speak up, Amit?

Is it better now?

Not really.

Slightly, but it could get better.

You go ahead. We can possibly figure out.

Go ahead, Amit.

So just 2 questions. Firstly, on association with Lloyds [indiscernible] primarily being on the pellet plant and the steel plant [indiscernible].

Yes. Amit, I suggest maybe you try dialing back, we'll just go to the next caller and come back to you because you're really not audible. Maybe you can just dial in again from wherever you are, and hopefully, we can hear you better next time. Let's move to the next caller, [ Kenshuk ].

The next question for today is from Siddharth Gadekar of Equirus.

Sir, can you just talk about the supply-demand dynamics in the long steel market, given that Rungta and Rashmi are also expanding very sharply in the next 2 years?

Yes. So if you really look at the long steel demand, actually, it's more than the flat steel demand in India, okay? It's about 55%, 60% of the steel demand in India. And you have, like I said earlier, multiple process routes in play while one of the big challenges for the DRI-based players is where will they get the iron ore from and at what price, right, unless they are backward integrated. Rungta is backward integrated, has some mines, et cetera. So that becomes an issue. So to me, while there will be competition, I also believe that longs business is still very fragmented. The big steel companies account for less than 50%, unlike flat where the big steel companies account for more than 90%, right? So a large number of small players operate in long, which happens all over the world. And as the steel industry develops, there will be some sort of shake out. You will see some of the smaller players becoming big. Some of them struggling to compete. So there will be multiple players out there. So we believe there is an opportunity for us because our market share is still very low. It's 10% to 15%. So we clearly see an opportunity to go to about 25%, if we can. Not only that, there are segments where we want to be a much higher market share. Like we are not in mild steel wire rods. We don't intend to be in mild steel wire rods. We want to be in alloy steel wire rods, high-quality wire rods. In rebars, we are more on the retail than on the projects. In projects, we are more on the downstream. So we have very specific strategies and segments that we are targeting. And we believe that so far, whatever longs we have sold -- I mean, produced, we've been able to sell. Longs is also not under so much of imports threat because most of Chinese exports is flat products. If you're -- maybe 10 years back, most of Chinese exports was long products. Today's 80%, 90% of Chinese steel exports is flat products. So we believe, given our franchise, given our relatively low market share, given our significant downstream presence we have a lot of opportunity in long. So I think we are quite bullish about that.

The next question is from Pallav Agarwal of Antique.

I hope I am audible.

Yes.

So currently, probably, the India profitability is about close to INR 15,000 per tonne. Now with this value addition, et cetera, coming in, and particularly since you mentioned that the Tata rebars are at a premium to normal rebars and right now, probably they are at a premium to HRC as well. So can this INR 15,000 go to INR 17,000 over the next couple of years once the 2.2 CRM comes in at Kalinganagar?

So a few things. One is the cold rolling mill is already operational. The continuous line, we've already got approvals from customers. So that's on track, the galvanizing lines. All that is in the next few months, everything is running -- is there as per plan. So that product mix enrichment continues to happen and will continue to happen as we've grown downstream. So whether it is through HRGAL that we've announced or the BlueScope acquisition, we are getting more and more into downstream. The steel prices today are at one of the lowest levels we've seen in a very long time, right? The spreads are at the lowest levels. The steel price themselves are lower. The spreads are actually lower than it was 2014 or '15. So we are seeing, in my view, something close to the bottom because at this level, it's very difficult for the industry, forget Tata Steel, for the industry to continue not just in India, but globally, right? So we do believe that we are somewhere close to the bottom. And I don't see Chinese exports increasing. It can only reduce from where it is. And already, the Chinese government is starting to take some actions. The weaker rupee is also acting as a hedge against imports. So for multiple reasons, we believe that margins and prices are pretty close to the bottom, if not at the bottom already, right? So to your question, so will the margins get better? Yes, we expect it to do that. Secondly, you must understand for Tata Steel, the expansion in Kalinganagar, expansion in Meramandali, expansion in Neelachal means we are expanding more -- I mean, we're expanding sites without legacy costs. In Jamshedpur, we do have legacy costs, right? So just like as we expand in India, the share of Europe, particularly U.K., which has been our weakest site in some sense, from a financial performance, not from effort, but in terms of financial performance. So just like the U.K. business, which at one time was 10 million has come down to 3 million and Tata Steel today in India is 25 million heading to 30 million and 35 million, et cetera. The impact of U.K. becomes less and less. As we expand beyond Jamshedpur, the impact of legacy cost becomes less and less for us, right? So those are the reasons why we're expanding in these places. And I do believe we are at the right point in the cycle and particularly given India's focus on infrastructure and investment-led growth where the flat products -- I mean, where the long products demand and the construction demand is going to be quite strong, we think there's a lot of opportunity for us.

So the value-add portion should probably mitigate part of the cyclicality in the commodity steel business?

That is one. And going downstream, so cost efficiencies and going downstream, we believe will reduce the impact of 2030 higher iron ore costs. I think that's basically what we are -- how can we reduce the impact of 2030 and higher iron ore costs through multiple -- building multiple optionalities upstream and investing more and more in downstream value-added and also more and more in the sites, which don't have the legacy costs.

Also, if you could give some sense on HISarna, how much cost savings can be there if it is low cost.

Yes. So there are 2, 3 things of HISarna. Like I said, it can be a game changer simply because you're going to be making steel without having to build a pellet plant, a coke oven, sinter plant, et cetera, et cetera, right? So you will save significantly on capital cost of building a steel plant, okay? Second thing is the HISarna process route emits 20% less CO2 than the blast furnace route, okay? So that's the second advantage you have. And we are looking at various things that you can use in the HISarna. We can use biochar, you can use LD slag. There are many products that you can use. And the CO2 that is emitted through HISarna is purer CO2, which is more amenable for carbon capture and sequestration, carbon capture and utilization, et cetera, et cetera. So there are many advantages of HISarna. Tata Steel owns the IP 100%. This was -- HISarna was started as a project in Europe with maybe about 40 steel companies joining in. And by 2015, we bought all the remaining steel companies. Rio Tinto was involved right at the beginning for part of it. So today, Tata Steel is the owner of the IP. And since 2015, we've been running this pilot plant and scaling it up and running it with various combinations of input. So this 1 million tonne plant will cost us about INR 2,500 crores to INR 3,000 crores. We're still working on the full detail, right? But more importantly, if it's a success, we can scale it up going forward, instead of building blast furnaces, you can build HISarna units. You can leverage locally available coal, your capital costs will be much lower. So there are many, many advantages that we see here. So that's why we are excited about this.

Just to add, Naren, just to give the data point also that on a steady-state basis, HISarna cost of hot metal is INR 3,000 lower but -- lower than blast furnace. So it gives not just the CO2, not just the usability of steel slag and inferior-grade raw material, from an operating cost perspective also it is much lower.

Sure, sir. If I can just lastly on the proposed Maharashtra plant. So I guess a lot of the value is coming from the state government CapEx subsidy and the GST exemption probably in some of the similar projects. So wouldn't it be a good idea to probably start the plant if these benefits are substantial and can reduce the payback. So maybe instead probably waiting for the JV probably you could start it on your own itself.

So it's 24 hours since we signed the MOU. I think you need to give us some time to work out the details with the state government, with our partners, looking at the local dynamics, the issues relating to logistics, iron ore mining. So I think there is much -- a lot of things. And like you, we are also excited to sign this opportunity and work with our partners in Lloyds to see what we can do together and what we can do ourselves to leverage the partnership.

Next question is from Vibhav Zutshi of JPMorgan.

Congratulations for the growth projects. Just regarding the greenfield plant in Maharashtra, and since you mentioned that you -- it will be probably closer to the sea. Just curious, if you will also evaluate importing the iron ore because a fair amount of iron ore now over the last few months, is actually getting imported from the Middle East from one of your closest peer. So given all that you mentioned about the captive mines of Lloyds reaching up to 67% beneficiation versus potentially getting the iron ore from sea via Middle East. Just curious if that would make economic sense and if that can accelerate the development of the steel plant?

So Vibhav, let me clarify. What I said is we will invest in that plant in Maharashtra if we are able to sort the iron ore issues and get clarity on the supply of the same because it is not close to the sea. I mean -- or rather Kalinganagar plant is closer to the sea, right? So if you were to depend on imported iron ore, I would rather keep expanding in Kalinganagar, which I will -- which we will do in any case, that is close to the sea. The Maharashtra plant can come up only if there is clarity on the iron ore availability and what is the operating model, et cetera, et cetera. . And that will have -- I mean, you're close to the iron ore, it's like the Jamshedpur model, you're building it close to the iron ore rather than close to the port. And of course, the advantage the Maharashtra plant will have is it's closer to the markets than a Jamshedpur plant or a Kalinganagar plant. So that's where it is. Imports is an optionality we will explore clearly for Kalinganagar and Neelachal if we want or Jamshedpur, et cetera. So that's an optionality for the Meramandali plant, we can explore.

The next question is from Amit Murarka of Axis Capital.

I hope I'm audible this time around.

Absolutely.

Yes, just on -- I think a lot of questions have already been asked on the Western foray or planned Western foray. So I would just seek more clarity on the NINL expansion first. So what I understand, at least from the filed documents is the reserves -- iron ore reserves at the plant seem to be in the vicinity of about 150-odd million tonnes. So given that it will be a 6 million tonne steel plant, like would you be looking to enhance reserves at this location? Or would there be a mix of captive and merchant because otherwise, it seems to be a 15-year life for the reserve based on the documentation.

Yes. I think, Amit, we are still working on that. We think there is more iron ore. We have our own geological team exploring that. So I think it was underexplored, so to speak. So we are still working on it. I don't want to give you any numbers now, but I think it will take care of what Neelachal needs.

Got it. Got it. And just secondly, while CapEx, as you said, will be better known maybe by March. But should we see this as more like a greenfield CapEx because the existing plant is only 1 million tonne, and this will be a 5 million tonne. So the CapEx will be more than just a brownfield expansion CapEx, right?

Yes, because you're pretty much building a new plant, entirely new plant from blast furnace to everything else. Because what is there is just a 1 million tonne plant with a steel mill shop and not much -- not any rolling mill, et cetera, et cetera. So it's -- you can look at it more like a greenfield CapEx.

And just to add, Naren, it is also has to have the infrastructure, both logistics and others. So as Naren mentioned, the land is there. The plant is in the middle, but there is a lot of logistics infrastructure that has to be built to ensure the smooth operation of the plant within and outside.

The advantage is it's not like a greenfield that you will acquire the land, build the wall, it's -- so you already have 2,500 acres of land there. You have the walls there. So it's not like starting Kalinganagar. It is starting with an existing site. But yes, we're pretty much building a greenfield in an existing steel plant.

And given that the intention is to go to 10 million tonnes here, would you be building in like more the civil infrastructure over here in the first go itself or we will do that in the next phase then?

No. So the EC we have applied for. I mean there are some EC issues which we are trying to sort out. So the first phase is like what we described. But eventually, the plan is to take it to 10 million tonnes, okay? So when we do the layout planning, we do all that, we look at all these things so that just like we did in Kalinganagar, so you optimize on the utilities, facilities, knowing that you want to get there. But some of it is dependent on the EC, et cetera. There are some issues which we are sorting out, but we are confident we'll get through with that.

Sure. And just a last question. So while in the West, you are exploring that option, but is it also right to think that you will take that up only once the NINL expansion is through or at least towards the end of the...

No, we can do that parallelly. Yes, Koushik.

Subject to the approvals and the ground realities or the pace at which the ground realities will move in West, NINL clearly has a head start and it will -- because we have spent time in terms of the EC, we spent time in terms of our engineering, et cetera. So that really remains as the priority one in terms of sequence, but this one will happen as soon as the -- we get more clarity on iron ore, in particular, and then the land and then the regulatory approvals and the configuration that we want to do and then the engineering. So it's not necessarily to be sequential, but it will eventually be phased in a manner where NINL, the readiness it is much higher than what we are talking in Maharashtra.

The next question is from Ashish Jain of Macquarie. Ashish, we are unable to hear you. We request -- Ashish, we request you to please send in your questions via chat or rejoin the queue.

Sorry guys. Am I audible now?

Yes.

So just one clarification on the potential West expansion. Like is the land readily there with your partner here? Or that will also be acquired by us or the partner at a later date for our expansion?

The land is notified, and it is available. It's a nonforest land. It doesn't require significant R&R activity. So the speed of that land will possibly be higher than buying it through the normal course.

Got it. Sir, secondly, my second question is on -- if I look at our product mix today, like based upon the expansion we have on flat steel, we are pretty much operating at full capacity utilization. And with NINL and Ludhiana, we are mostly adding long products. So is it fair to assume that we will not see much growth on flat side? And one, is that right? And second is, how do you see that in context of your demand outlook for flat versus long for the industry? Like we understand today, longs are much bigger, but how do you see that demand shipping up for the industry?

So the 2.5 million tonnes that we're talking about in Meramandali is all flat products, right? So Neelachal will be a long products plant, not only in this phase, the next phase will also be long products. So flat products, we have Meramandali 2.5 million. We are still early stage. We're working on Kalinganagar from 8 million to 13 million, which will also be flat products, and Kalinganagar can go to 16 million. Meramandali can go to 10 million. All that will be flat products. So -- and what we're looking at in Maharashtra will also be flat products. So we have enough opportunities to expand in flat. And so I don't think we will miss opportunities there. But the longs demand will be higher than flats demand and the growth in longs demand has also been higher than flat over the last few years because of the focus on construction. Flats has recently picked up because the auto sector is looking good. Railways is looking good and a lot of -- some flats gets used in construction with the PEBs, et cetera. But there is -- so we are skewed more towards today, if you look at it in 25 million tonnes in India, we have 20 million flat and 5 million long. So what we have announced today is to take flat to maybe 22 million and longs to -- add another 5 million in longs. So it doesn't skew it too much away from flat, but it gives us a better balance towards long.

Got it. Just one clarification. Kalinganagar, from a nature point of view, will be more greenfield from here on? Is that how we should think -- I mean in terms of the support infrastructure and all those things?

No. So Kalinganagar, the highest in some sense, was the first phase where we took a lot of time and spent a lot of money in basically acquiring the land, leveling it, et cetera, et cetera. The Phase 2, we spent a lot because we set up a very high-end cold rolling mill, which itself is INR 5,000 crores, INR 6,000 crores if you look at the CapEx, right? So to me and a lot of other facilities, galvanizing lines, et cetera. So when you look at Kalinganagar expansion, the next phase of 5 million will probably include a plate mill and things like that. So we are looking at the product mix there. But that will all be like a brownfield expansion because land is with us, the...

No, Narendran. Sorry to cut you -- my question is ex of land. Land I know we have, but ex of land, is it more like greenfield in terms of support with intra, utility, all of that or?

That's also built.

The next question from is Vikash Singh of ICICI Securities.

Can't hear you Vikash.

[ Kenshuk] let's move to the last question, and take it -- end it after that, please.

Sure, madam. So this was the last question for today. I would now like to hand the conference back to you for the closing comment. Over to you, madam.

Thank you, everyone. I hope the call today clarified a lot of your questions and provided you a lot more color than what you may have had yesterday. As we just said, we will disclose more details in due course, but it was good to connect with all of you, and thank you, and we'll connect again. Bye-bye.

Thank you. Thank you, everyone for joining.