TAURON Polska Energia S.A. (TPE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
March 30, 2023
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Lukasz Zimnoch
executiveWelcome, ladies and gentlemen. It's a great pleasure doing the conference for the media, investors and analysts, the subject of which is the full year 2022 financial results of TAURON Group and also for Q4 last year. The host of today's meetings are: Mr. Pawel Szczeszek, President of the Management Board, TAURON Polska Energia; and Mr. Krzysztof Surma, the Vice President of Management Board responsible for Finance, CFO. My name is Lukasz Zimnoch, and I will be conducting today's conference. The presentation, ladies and gentlemen, traditionally is being conducted in Polish along with a simultaneous interpreting into English. Apart from rebroadcast, you can always listen in to today's meeting using the teleconference mode of operation. I'd like to invite you to ask questions right away using the form of broadcast. The only option to ask question is to use this form which is available on the broadcast website. I can see that you've already started sending questions. Mr. President, let me hand it over to you.
Pawel Szczeszek
executiveThank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, it's a great pleasure for me to welcome you to the conference, the subject of which is to discuss the full year 2022 financial results of TAURON Group. I will be presenting my part. The key highlight is the financial situation of the group, important events that took place since our last meeting. On the other hand, President Krzysztof Surma will present the macroeconomic situation, the financial results posted and the outlook for 2023. One of the main important events of 2020 was the adoption of a new strategy of TAURON Group, which assumes severalfold increase of installed capacity in renewable energy sources and reducing carbon emissions about 80%. In 2022, we acquired 2 wind farms, 1 photovoltaic farms. We commissioned 2 wind farms, 1 PV farm, and we acquired 5 projects of the total capacity about 200 megawatts. In 2022, we completed the process of a sale of shares of TAURON Wydobycie, TAURON Mining to the state treasury. In parallel, as you know very well, there's a process underway to spin off the generation assets into the National Energy Security Agency. Let's move on to Slide Number 2. The first, Number 1, excuse me, the key data for full year 2022. On this slide, we are presenting the financial results and operating data obtained, so generated by TAURON Group for the full year 2022. It was a very challenging year. We've had to face a war in Ukraine, and the energy crisis and the commodity crisis that followed. Difficult situation on the energy and fuel market also has an impact upon the financial results of TAURON Group. The strong growth of energy prices, electricity prices, gas and coal prices were reflected in a much higher sales revenue year-over-year. On the other hand, we also reported a very strong increase over operating expenses, cost of operations. So as a result, the EBITDA result was flat versus 2021 and slightly above PLN 4 million -- PLN 4 billion. At the net profit level, we posted a loss of PLN 134 million. This loss was due among others effect of booking the impairment charges and an increase of financial costs. The 2022 capital expenditures went up by 35%, approaching PLN 4 billion. This is the result of the green turn of TAURON and the acceleration of investments in the renewables. The volumes that the group generated with respect to the distribution and production, distribution was close to 2022 results -- 2021 results. We can see much lower renewable energy sources output, which is due to the less favorable weather conditions. At the beginning of last year, we had faced a drought, which had a negative impact upon the volume of production at the hydroelectric power plant. On the other hand, the fourth quarter was characterized by the unfavorable wind conditions. The average temperatures in 2022 were lower than in 2021, which was reflected in the lower volume of heat generated. On the next slide, we are presenting the data that covers only Q4 last year. Similar as in case of data for the full year, we can see an increase of sales revenue, increase of the operating expenses and the negative net profit. The net debt to EBITDA ratio at the end of 2022 stayed at -- remained at a safe level of 2.9. With respect to the operating data, we experienced a very strong decline of volume of electricity production from renewable energy sources, which is -- was due to the unfavorable wind conditions that we faced in Q4 last year. Besides, we also observed the decline of distribution and electricity supply volumes, which was the effect of a weakening of economic sentiment, economic downturn and a growing number of consumers. Thanks to the launching 2 new coal phases and good [ generical ] conditions, we increased by about 10% the production of commercial coal. Let's move on to the summary of the most important events, the highlights of 2022. On this slide, we are presenting the most important events that occurred in 2022. Since the majority of them I already covered when I was doing the previous earnings calls, let me focus on the most important strategic events for TAURON Group. In view of geopolitical and market changes that are the aftermath of the Russian federation's aggression against Ukraine, the key issue is to assure the safety, the security of national power system. In this context, the green transition process is even more important departure from the fossil fuels and the use of renewable energy sources. In response to these challenges, in June, we adopted the new strategy of TAURON Group for the years 2022 to 2030 with an outlook until 2050. Our goal is to accelerate the green turn of TAURON. And by year 2025, we will be having about 1.6 gigawatts in installed capacity in renewables. 2030 is going to be 3.7 gigawatts of installed capacity. We are planning to achieve climate neutrality in 2050. 2022 was a major step towards accomplishing our strategy. We commissioned the [indiscernible] wind farms. We also coming to the second stage of contracting the Majewo and Piotrków wind farms. We also completed the second stage of constructing the [indiscernible] PV farm. We started working on the Myslowice PV farm. We acquired the SPV [indiscernible] and also the PV farm in Proszówek. At the stage of advanced analytics, we have several other projects, both wind farms and PV farms, with total capacity of 800 megawatts. In comparison to the previous year, the CapEx in the Renewables segment went up about fivefold, 5x. We are steadfastly implementing the process of departing from the coal assets at the end of 2022. We spun off -- we divested to, say, treasury 100% of the shares in TAURON Wydobycie, TAURON Mining, which includes coal mines Sobieski, Janina and Brzeszce. We're also completing the works aimed at spinning off into the National Energy Security Office, very hard coal generation asset. This is the most important strategic process conducted over the last years. We should be able to complete this process in the second quarter of this year. Let me hand over to President Krzysztof Surma, the CFO, who will continue the presentation, will present to you the financial part. Please.
Krzysztof Surma
executiveLadies and gentlemen, moving on to the macroeconomic and market situation. Last year, we're dealing with the gradual slowdown of the economic growth rate -- GDP growth rate, which had an impact upon the decline of electricity consumption, especially in the second half of the year but mostly in the last quarter of last year. At the same time, Poland still produced more electricity year-over-year, which was due mainly to the situation in the neighboring countries. In the neighboring countries, the price was higher than in Poland, therefore, Poland was a net exporter of electricity, but overproduction of electricity year-over-year was higher. With respect to the distribution of those production, first of all, the renewables were the main beneficiary of this growth among large increase of the PV installations, including the consumer-based installations. It was in terms of gas-fired installations, we faced a major decline, which is obvious because, worldwide, the gas prices went skyrocketed, therefore, was a major reduction of production based on gas. In terms of production based on coal, one may say it was almost flat year-over-year. However, there was a certain allocation. So there was a decline of electricity production from the hard coal-fired power plants. Here, we're dealing with a major increase of price of hard coal during the year, also there was a limited supply on the hard coal in the market, and some of the generation was shifted to the lignite-fired units. If we move on now to the situation directly of TAURON Group, we were dealing with a major increase of revenue year-over-year, more than 40 -- almost 46%. However, let us remember that this growth was caused by a major increase of the price of electricity, gas and coal on the market. At the same time, we had the same impact -- it had the same impact on the cost side for the group in the OpEx. Net profit, a major impact came from the impairment charge of the coal asset that was mentioned but were divested to the state treasury and had an impact on the loss -- led to the net loss for the full year 2022. If we look at the EBITDA -- comparable EBITDA year-over-year, well, also, we were dealing with a decline. Here, we faced difficult, challenging market conditions that the CEO mentioned. Also, the group was affected by them, and the comparable EBITDA year-over-year dropped by 16%. Here, this adjusted EBITDA was impacted by the one-off events that took place both in 2021 as well as 2022. We are talking about one-off transactions on the CO2 emission allowances, carbon credits, and we were also dealing in both years with provisions for onerous contracts. If those one-off events -- if we strip them out from reported EBITDA, then we would arrive at the adjusted EBITDA. And as I mentioned, year-over-year, it was about 16% lower. If we now move on to the data for Q4 alone, this data is similar to the full year data of quarter-over-quarter growth on the revenue side is a bit lower, but still high, about 36% of revenue growth rate. The reasons are exactly the same. Here in Q4, you can see the cause of net loss. This is this impairment charge related to the coal assets that took place last year. It was actually implemented in Q4 in terms of the comparable EBITDA alone quarter-over-quarter of Q4 '22 versus Q4 2021. Here the main one-off events, these are the provisions for onerous contracts after the -- if you strip them out, the EBITDA year-over-year is lower also in Q4. If we now move on generally for the full result of the segment. Additionally, our key segment is the distribution segment, stable result year-over-year. And for many years, more than 70% of our EBITDA generated in this line of business. Here, good earnings also posted by the renewables segment. However, very weak earnings reported by the Generation segment, but I will expand on that later -- elaborate on that when I discuss the segment. Also were to note -- to emphasize good earnings of the Mining segment, historic high. I will elaborate on that when I discuss individual segments' situation. If we move on now to Q4 alone results, earnings. Here, we can say that a bit weaker earnings posted by the Distribution than typically, but please note and the fact -- and when I mentioned the general situation in the country. So the decline of electricity consumption mainly took place in Q4, and this has immediate impact upon the Distribution segment. At the same time, Q4 is the best quarter in the history of the Mining subsidiary as part of TAURON Group. If we move on now to the segments and comparing the reported EBITDA year-over-year here. This reported EBITDA, as you can see on the slide, comes out worst in the Generation segment. However, it's worth remembering that, in 2021, we continue to be dealing with cost plus contract between TAURON Polska Energia and Nowe Jaworzno. That's probably the last time I'm mentioning this topic during the earnings call, but to understand correctly the comparable results, I have to remind this fact, once again, about PLN 1.250 billion that was the shift between the Supply and the Generation segments. Of course, the Generation segment also was negatively impacted by the hard coal prices of fuel. Here we have a certain transfer shift between the 2 segments, between the Mining and the Generation segment. I will elaborate on this when I discuss the individual segments. Q4. Here also, we are dealing with a similar situation. So the Mining and the Supply segments show a major increase of contribution to the reported EBITDA, while the Generation segment here, also the Distribution segment bring about a decline of EBITDA year-over-year talking about the comparable '21 versus '22. Here, as I mentioned, talking about the distribution, it's a matter of volumes in Q4, as remember, in 2021, we still had an accelerating economy and growing volume of electricity consumption. Q4 2022, we experienced a decline of consumption. That's why we have such varying results earnings in the Distribution segment. Whereas in the Generation segment, let's remember that part of results in the context of reported EBITDA is already addressed in the provision for the onerous contracts in the earlier quarters. If we move on now to the Distribution segment, our flagship segment, our key segment, as I mentioned before, let me start with negative factors. So the decline of the volume, this is the effect that was visible in Q4. The second negative factor that had an impact upon that was a growing cost, both labor cost as well as growing taxes on real estate. In addition, we are seeing a negative factor here, the issue of balancing difference costs. However, let us not forget that this caused of -- cost of grid loss is impacted by several factors. The one that had a negative impact in 2022 is the issue of higher price -- increase of price, but we had to pay for electricity to cover the grid losses. So whereas the grid losses themselves in terms of volume were lower in fact that in 2021 and the upward adjustment also balance was positive. Therefore, this bar should be combined to the first one. And this is the main -- the key positive impact upon the Distribution segment, namely the increase of the tariff -- increase of rate for distributed electricity. If we combine the factors of both bars of increase of grid rate and the increase of the cost of purchasing electricity for -- to cover the grid losses. Those 2 bars combined, the outcome is positive. Therefore, we have a stable flat earnings of distribution year-over-year despite the fact that, in 2021, we faced major positive volumes, and a large portion of the result was -- also on the regulated account, which will be settled over the coming years. If we look at Q4 alone, here, we can see that this volume that basically during the year was lost or -- which declined one year-over-year was -- occurred mainly in Q4, therefore a still greater impact of visibility of at loss, greater magnitude of a loss on the volume. However, at the same time, in terms of cost of grid losses, here the volume of grid losses was comparable year-over-year. And thus, you can fully see the effect of increase of prices year-over-year in terms of the cost of purchasing that said electricity to cover the balance in difference of grid losses. If we move on now to the metrics. Key metrics is good piece of information. All the quality metrics were met. Of course, we're talking about the quality metrics set by the President of Energy Regulatory Office. So there will be no negative impact on the tariff for not meeting the quality parameters. If we now move on to the renewables segment, here the main factor determining the earnings is, of course, the price on the market and the volume. In terms of volume, as the CEO has already mentioned, those volumes were lower year-over-year. Here, first of all, we're dealing with a much lower generation from hydropower plants. We're dealing with so-called hydrological drought. And therefore, volume of electricity generated by the hydropower plants was lower year-over-year. At the same time, on the market, we were dealing with increasing price and all the transactions were not covered by the hedging before could have been also sold on the spot market at higher prices. Therefore, we got major increase of EBITDA year-over-year, which was basically driven by the increase of prices on the market. If you go now to Q4 alone. In the renewables, here, situation is similar. However -- similar as for the full year, volume is lower year-over-year. However, we have a major decline in the wind energy generation. The generation of electricity by hydropower plants was almost flat, whereas we are dealing with a much worse weather conditions regarding wind. So we generated much less volume of electricity. So this is reflected in the earnings. The price effect itself was not sufficient to make this EBITDA recurring year-over-year. Also even more, we were dealing with a declined price so rights to the so-called green certificates, those prices were lower quarter-over-quarter. And therefore, this also had an impact upon the lower earnings of the renewables segment in this respect. If we now move on to the Generation segment. Here, the segment brought the weakest results out of all the segments in our group. And as I mentioned at the very beginning to offset or to give -- make it comparable -- to compare 2021 versus 2022, one would have to transfer about PLN 1.200 billion from the RES segment to the Supply segment. But still, that loss, if it were to turn out -- even if we brought about this comparability, we would still be dealing equivalent almost PLN 1 billion worth earnings year-over-year. This was mainly impacted by 2 factors. The first factor is the shutdown of the unit both in the first part of the year from January to April. I'm talking about the 910-megawatt unit in Jaworzno as well as in August -- just remember, in August, the price of electricity were highest on the market in Poland last year. And during that time, TAURON had to buy back electricity that was contracted for this unit. So this is the first key factor of significant loss. The other component -- the other factor is the growing hard coal prices that also led to the situation where the profitability of the contracts that have been signed in the previous years was negative to a large degree. If we move on to Q4 alone results, here again, we are dealing with this effect of a cost-plus contract. Just to make it comparable, one would have to strip out about 550 million out of these opening bars over 2021 year. And here, again, we are dealing in Q4 with higher coal prices effect. Here, the increase of the coal prices affected this quarter most. And this quarter, as a matter of fact, over earnings in this quarter had the biggest impact -- negative impact because of -- excuse me, due to the growing -- rising hard coal prices this -- so the rising coal price has the biggest impact upon this quarter. If we move on now to the Supply segment. Here the situation is reversed. As a matter of fact, the PLN 1.250 billion that I mentioned before, should be transferred into the earnings for 2021. And therefore, if we adjusted this -- these earnings with, we will get very comparable, almost flat earnings year-over-year. Of course, they are a bit lower because of not -- the gas tariff and the G tariff not fully covering the costs. And the difference that we are referring to year-over-year would probably come in at about PLN 100-plus million. However, we need to emphasize at the same time that we had some allocation to the Supply segment between the entities. A part of a segment of this allocation was between the supply companies operating in the domestic market and the Czech company, the subsidiary, historically good results, good earnings, the Czech subsidiary was taking advantage of a difference of -- in price being Poland and Czech Republic and generated the best earnings in its history. If we move on now to Q4 alone in this segment -- Supply segment. Here, the situation looked also very -- was very similar. As I mentioned, if we stripped out those PLN 550 million from the Generation segment to the Supply segment, which was due to the contract between Nowe Jaworzno and TAURON under the cost-plus formula then. The earnings for the segment would be almost flat year-over-year. The effect of gas tariffs not being -- not fully covering the cost. So not that relevant had so much as in the case of the full year results. Here, we are dealing with a clear decline of the volume of activities sold, the same as in case of distribution. This is also -- in case of Supply segment, this Q4 looks worse in terms of interest sold to the customers. It is also different versus the distribution due to the growing in the prosumer installations than the electricity that is accounted for as part of the production by the prosumers installations. Now let us move on to the segment where too we are showing probably for first -- for the last time from the TAURON Group's perspective. Here as the CEO mentioned at the beginning, the coal mines who were divested were sold to the state treasuries, so we'll not be showing the Mining segment in our subsequent earnings calls. At the very end of its operation as part of TAURON, the segment posted very good earnings. This result is, to a large degree, a reflection of very high hard coal prices. Hard coal prices year-over-year went up by more than 100%, both on the market of coal sold to individual consumers to the heating plants as well as to the district's heating plants. We're dealing with major increases in all parts of the market, and it had an impact upon very good earnings of the Mining segment and a larger sale of a large lump coal and medium-sized coal. It also carries a larger margin. So we generated better earnings for the segment. At the same time, the negative impact came from the increase of the labor cost, increase of the energy cost, and the increase of cost of materials, and those factors will also have an impact upon the earnings. But segment in subsequent years as well as the coal price in the subsequent quarters will be declining, but this will not have a direct impact upon the earnings of TAURON Group. If we're talking about the Q4 earnings for Mining segment, you can see even a stronger price effect. In Q4, we're dealing with a cumulative impact of the increase of coal price, and this effect and the impact upon the EBITDA was higher. At the same time, it was combined with a very good production effect. At the time, practically all the coal faces over long hauls that are available at the coal mines of TAURON Mining. So the volume effect combined with the very high price generated the highest earnings in the history of the subsidiary. If we move on now to the debt. Debt year-over-year went up. However, let's remember that, during that period, the time frame TAURON repaid or redeemed or bought out the shares from PFR and paid the liability, that liability was paid in 2022 but originally was from the previous periods. Other important things is a fact that the leverage ratio -- net debt to EBITDA ratio is 2.9, which is high, but at the same time, still at a safe level. What is important, it's worth to note that, in 2022, TAURON signed a large, new program that refinanced the previous debt. It was a PLN 4 billion worth program signed in July last year. It allowed us to push away, push forward the maturities. So in 2023, in the current year, we don't have a major maturity or a major debt coming in. So here, it's worth to indicate the hedging of a portfolio. If you combine the fixed rate, including the IRS of hedging instruments, so the instruments that convert effectively floating rate into fixed rate. So about 2/3 of the portfolio -- credit portfolio of TAURON is hedged. So about 1/3 of the portfolio, the portfolio of TAURON is exposed to the floating rate risk. If we talk about the capital expenditures, here, we were dealing with a major increase year-over-year. Our CapEx came in at about PLN 4 billion, as the majority of CapEx as every year took place was spent in the distribution line of business, we also experienced a slight increase year-over-year. The main issue is installing new connections, new customers connections to the grid and implementing new power lines. We had a fivefold increase of the CapEx in the renewables. It's a major qualitative increase in line with our strategy. At the same time, we were also dealing with an increase of CapEx in the more conventional Generation segment and in the coal mines. However, here, let's remember that the majority of that spending is also related to the heat line of business, especially in the generation part, and this segment will stay with us, and it's related to the gradual decarbonization in this area. If we now move on to the outlook that we face, what we have ahead of us, let me start with our key segment, namely the Distribution segment. We are expecting our earnings to go up in the Distribution in 2023. This is due to the increase of the tariff set by the President of Energy Regulatory Office. Here the WACC, we did have cost of capital based on which the return -- rate of return in the Distribution segment is calculated. It will go up from about 5.8% to around 8.5%. This will lead to a major increase in this segment's earnings. And also, it's worth to note certain risks and certain things that we are already aware of in terms of risk. It's a matter of volume. Here, depending upon what is the level of electricity consumption in Poland, this will, to a certain degree, determine the earnings generated by the Distribution. The second factor that we have is the settlement of regulatory -- regulated account that I mentioned 2021. The regulated account was positively fast. So we had funds deposited due to the volume that was higher that we had covered by the tariffs. So those funds will have to be settled this year and will have an impact upon the EBITDA in the Distribution line of business. Nevertheless, we still expect to be a bidder to go up in this line of business. Regarding the renewables segment, I mentioned when I described the earnings, it's volume and price, 2 determinant factors. So volume, we expect an increase of volumes generated in this line of business year-over-year. In terms of the price, here, it will be impacted by the new regulations. And the regulations related to the limits of transferring funds to certain funds to the fund, this will have a negative impact upon the earnings in the renewables line of business. Therefore, the earnings year-over-year, we expect to be lower in terms of the Generation segment following the weak results last year is not a big surprise for us to expect an increase. Exports, we expect EBITDA to be positive. It's not going to be just to grow, but it'll actually translate into a positive EBITDA in this line of business. Among the positive factors, we expect a stable operation of the Nowe Jaworzno units. And at the same time, we assume that the total of the contracts combined will -- signed in the previous years -- in the previous year and the current year will generate a positive effect in terms of the margin of the first degree. So overall, we expect a positive EBITDA in this line of business. Of course, the segment will still be impacted by the higher coal prices from last year and the growing fixed costs. In terms of Supply segment. Here, we expect stable earnings year-over-year. Of course, if a segment is to a certain degree, earnings to a certain degree are regulated by the charges to the funds and the certain risk that comes up. It's a matter of volumes of electricity supply, very strongly tied to the overall economic situation in Poland. In terms of CapEx, we expect the CapEx to go up. However, basically, this CapEx will be highly correlated to the financial capabilities of our group and was worth emphasizing the key spending will happen in the twin segment. There's nothing -- no surprises, happens every year. The second key spending area would be the renewables in these 2 segments, basically. In these 2 segments, the key CapEx will be focused. In terms of debt, the key is to maintain the safe level to meet -- to be in line with all the bank covenants, and our goal would be to maintain the investment-grade rating. That's all regarding the outlook for the coming year. Thank you very much for the first part of the presentation, and let's have a Q&A session.
Lukasz Zimnoch
executiveYes. Thank you very much for your presentation to President of Management Board. We've had some questions. Some of the questions are very multi-threaded questions. I'll not be reading all of them coming from a single author. I will try to split them into a few ones to make easier to answer. The first question came from Mr. [indiscernible] from [ WMP ]. How much was in December 2022 the charges to the WRC fund? And how much would be those charges in Q1 2023?
Pawel Szczeszek
executiveThe price difference fund. In terms of charge in December 2022, it's clocked in at PLN 18 million. In terms of a charge in the first quarter of 2023, we'll be publishing this information as we are presenting the earnings for Q1.
Lukasz Zimnoch
executiveNext question from [indiscernible] until the end of 2023, 15% of TAURON's customer distribution should be clear to very remote readout meters. How is the process moving? Will this milestone be achieved?
Pawel Szczeszek
executiveWell, the installation of smart meters is progressing gradually. But let's remember that the majority of meters on the tariffs recovered by the TAURON Distribution was installed in Wroclaw. That's a large portion of customers. So as of now, we are not assuming any deviation this respect. As of the end of -- that's the last question from Mr. [indiscernible]. As of the end of 2022, TAURON Group has renewables of the total capacity [indiscernible] of 659 megawatts.
Lukasz Zimnoch
executiveHow much capacity in renewables will be added in 2023? And what technologies?
Pawel Szczeszek
executiveWell, as we announced in our strategy, after less than a year of implementing the Green Turn of strategy, this increases to 1.6 gigawatts and 3.7 by 2030 and 2025, not in jeopardy. It's difficult to expect that this will be linear growth year-by-year. However, as of now, our approach is very optimistic, how -- we view it very optimistically, and the progress of our works and projects does not indicate but will not be in line with our plans. And even on the other way around, we will achieve it earlier than we had planned originally.
Lukasz Zimnoch
executiveA few questions from Mr. [indiscernible] from [indiscernible] Daily and the Parkiet newspaper, first question regarding the talks to Rafako. What is the reason for the extension of the talks with Rafako?
Pawel Szczeszek
executiveWe are conducting -- TAURON Generation segment is conducting talks with Rafako as part of a mediation with the aid of legal counsel of the Republic of Poland. As you know, recently, we published the assumptions for the settlement agreement. Today, we are working on how to formulate the content of this agreement. I think we are right -- on the right track to come to this agreement.
Lukasz Zimnoch
executiveThe next few questions are regarding [indiscernible] biomass-fired unit in [indiscernible] is posting losses. What are the reasons? When can you expect the tender for the gas-fired unit in [indiscernible] to take place?
Pawel Szczeszek
executiveRegarding the earnings of biomass-fired unit in [indiscernible] the cause of that is the -- the reason for that is the cost of biomass and difficulties on the commodity markets, raw materials market last year. The plant tripling of renewables capacity over 7 years will be possible to shoulder by TAURON Distribution, how large CapEx should be there. Let me come back to our strategy that we announced in June last year, which assumes an increase of CapEx on the Distribution up to PLN 24 billion by the end of 2030. This is about 50% increase. But let me note that our activities regarding acquisitions or construction of the new capacity -- new installed capacity that is taking place not only on the territory covered by TAURON Distribution. We are just to add because it's also where adding that increase of capacity because the question, are you talking about the tripling where capacity over 7 years in the National Power System or in Poland or in TAURON Group. And here, it's clear that regarding TAURON alone group -- TAURON Group alone, its Distribution is not responsible for expanding capacity in terms of the national power system. We are showing a clear increase of CapEx year-over-year in Distribution, preparing for being able to -- to be able to connect to new sources. This is a joint -- in the renewables. So it's a joint strategy, common strategy from the President of Energy Regulatory Office.
Lukasz Zimnoch
executiveI have a question how much we have charged to the price difference from last year?
Pawel Szczeszek
executiveThe answer was given to this, PLN 18 million.
Lukasz Zimnoch
executiveWhat are the forecasts regarding the CapEx in 2023, especially regarding renewables investments, how much and in what is TAURON planning to invest this year?
Pawel Szczeszek
executiveWell, focus for this year are about PLN 4.6 billion. Regarding renewables, this is almost PLN 1 billion. In terms of renewables alone, of course, the key, as I mentioned before during the presentation, the key is the distribution line of business. And the majority of CapEx will be spent in this segment. In terms of renewables, basically, it's going to be the similar investment direction as up to now, so wind farms and PV farms onshore. Of course, some may be beginnings of spending in offshore, but let's remember that we are at the stage of a licensing process now and not at the implementation stage yet.
Lukasz Zimnoch
executiveCan we expect a lower EBITDA year-over-year in 2023, taking into account the fact that, in the current year, as much as 30% comes from the discontinued operations.
Pawel Szczeszek
executiveWell, let us remember, for 2022 a number of factors had an impact, starting with the most unexpected one being the aggression of Russia against Ukraine and the major volatility on the commodity markets and electricity markets, at the same time, the impact on the individual segments of the operations, which we could clearly see, especially in the Generation segment and the Mining segment. We are expecting as we indicated when we talked about the outlook, we expected growth both in the generation as well as the distribution line of business, a stable earnings in flat earnings in the supply and a bit lower earnings in the renewables segment. However, we expect that EBITDA year-over-year will be at least flat, so answering this question, we are not expecting that due to divesting one segment that our EBITDA year-over-year will be lower.
Lukasz Zimnoch
executiveNow a few questions related to National [indiscernible] Security Agency. How this issue of transferring the assets to the agency made not by the agency and [indiscernible] in other words, so what level of assets will be transferred to NABE split into fixed assets and the calendar and how much assets will be shifted in terms of Distribution or division into interest-bearing and noninterest-bearing assets?
Pawel Szczeszek
executiveWell, of course, regarding the work on the NABE agency, the process is still underway. As of now, no one has assumed so far any detailed spinning off of assets. So splitting the companies into fixed and current assets and the spinoff process. As a matter of fact, the entire current generation subsidiary will be spun off, and the capital group around it in 2022. Let me remind you that first, we shifted, let's say, the shares from 2 subsidiaries, TAURON Service, TAURON [indiscernible] into -- from the TAURON Polska Energia level to TAURON Generation, and TAURON Generation became an almost 100% owner of those subsidiaries. At the same time, we matched the Nowe Jaworzno TAURON [indiscernible]versus TAURON Generation. So already we have a single subsidiary TAURON Generation now. So we're thinking about splitting assets. We are talking about the transfer of the entire subsidiary. In terms of the debt, the valuation is the key. And then based on the valuation, we could discuss the split of, yes, of the debt. Let's remember that, at TAURON, we don't have any external debt, but it's strictly tied to the coal part. We don't have it like that. And it's our intragroup debt, depending upon the final agreements reached and the agreed-upon valuation will be adequately accordingly allocated and repaid either through the direct transaction or later by NABE themselves to a certain degree.
Lukasz Zimnoch
executiveThe time has come for the last questions, ladies and gentlemen. I've read breaking earnings due to the windfall profits. Should it be taxed, what is the advice as advised by the credit union and international agency -- energy agency is a question from Mr. [ Sakura ] from [ Business Alert ].
Pawel Szczeszek
executiveWell, in terms of TAURON Group's earnings, it's difficult to speak about the record-breaking earnings since we have worse earnings year-over-year, not only reported not to mention the adjusted earnings by about 16% year-over-year. And additionally, you must remember that there were charges to the fund that were introduced that also affect the utility of Energy Group. So we're talking about the windfall tax -- our windfall profit issues. Here, we are talking probably about other groups other than energy groups and utilities, electrical utilities. I think this question is no longer applicable directly to TAURON.
Lukasz Zimnoch
executiveThank you very much, Mr. presidents for the presentation. Thank you for answering the questions. Ladies and gentlemen, let me now invite you to our next meeting right after we publish the Q1 2023 earnings. We will give you -- will forward to you information in a traditional way about the date of the conference. Thank you very much for meeting. Have a nice day. Goodbye.
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