TC Energy Corporation (TRP) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, and welcome to TC Energy's 2021 Investor Day. I'm David Moneta, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you for joining us this morning. Under normal circumstances, we would host this event in person. So we have a few employees in the room to create a live audience experience for our presenters and you, our guests. All have been tested for COVID-19 to ensure our safety. Throughout the day, we intend to provide an overview of the many exciting initiatives we have underway at TC Energy as well as some of the trends that will help shape the future of the energy industry. You can find a copy of the presentation and agenda on our website at tcenergy.com. Leslie Kass, Executive Vice President of our Technical Center, will begin this morning with a safety moment. And then Francois Poirier, our President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide some comments on our vision and long-term strategy. They will be followed by other members of our executive leadership team who will provide updates on their respective areas of responsibility. The investment community may use the Q&A function in the webcast to ask questions, which will be addressed throughout the presentations. If we don't get to all of them during the allotted time, we will follow up with you after today's presentation. Before we begin, I'd like to acknowledge that embedded in the land on which we operate are the histories, cultures and rich traditions of indigenous groups across North America. We thank the original keepers of these lands, generations past, present and future, for sharing their homelands with us. Finally, our remarks today will include forward-looking statements that are subject to important risks and uncertainties. For more information on these risks and uncertainties, please see the reports filed by us with Canadian securities regulators and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. We will also refer to various non-GAAP measures, such as comparable EBITDA and comparable earnings per share. They are used to provide you with some additional information on our operating performance, liquidity and ability to generate funds to finance our operations. However, they may not be comparable to similar measures used by other entities. With that, I'll turn it over to Leslie Kass for our safety moment.

Thank you, David. Good morning. I'm Leslie Kass, the Executive Vice President of the Technical Center. Like all of our meetings at TC Energy, we're going to begin with a safety moment. Our zero is real culture goes beyond traditional physical safety because we believe that all harm, loss and incidents are preventable. Today, we're going to focus on mental health and staying resilient in tough times. These happiness hacks have simple tips and tricks that we can use to bring more joy into our lives. Being happy not only makes us feel good, but research shows it also makes us healthier, safer and more productive. The 4 major chemicals in the brain that influence our positive feelings are serotonin, dopamine, endorphins and oxytocin. Serotonin is especially important as a mood stabilizer. A lot of first-line antidepressants work with this chemical in the brain. These medicines work by allowing the serotonin in your body to hang around a little longer before it gets reabsorbed and thus increasing your levels. There are hacks which can help you achieve the same benefit naturally, such as meditating, exercising and sun exposure. Next up is dopamine. This is the reward chemical. This important neurochemical boosts mood, motivation and attention and helps regulate movement, learning and emotional responses. An interesting fact on dopamine and. Teenagers, while dopamine levels tend to be higher in young children, hence, their fun sense of wonderment, children moving into their teenage years experience a drop in dopamine level, which explains some of those grumpy teenage moments that we see at my house. Dopamine can be elevated using the following tips: by completing small tasks, eating healthy food, celebrating small wins and self-care. The next hack involves endorphins, the runner's high. People who exercise have 43% fewer poor mental health days than those who don't. And finally, oxytocin, the love hormone. In a 2003 study, oxytocin levels rose in both owners and dogs after time spent cuddling. The strong bond between humans and pets may have a biological basis on oxytocin which might help explain the rise in pet ownership during the pandemic, including among many of your presenters today. So in conclusion, there are several ways to boost your happiness and improve your mental health. If you're looking to be ultraefficient later, grab your dog, go for a walk in nature, have a quick mindful moment and enjoy a piece of dark chocolate to celebrate. Thank you, and now I'll turn it over to Francois.

Thank you, Leslie. Let's see. I eat dark chocolate. I'm a runner, and I got a dog during COVID. So I think I'm in pretty good shape. Welcome, everybody, and thank you for joining us this morning for our second consecutive virtual Investor Day. Hopefully, next year, we're going to be able to do this in person, so we can meet face to face, have good conversation and get to know one another a lot better. What I'm hoping to convey to you all today is that we have a clear vision. We have strong energy fundamentals, competitively positioned assets and a robust capital allocation framework that will enable us to deliver compelling risk-adjusted growth. I'll be followed on the stage by Patrick, who will walk you through our sustainability goals, and then all 4 business unit presidents will walk you through greater detail around the growth drivers that make us so confident in the growth that we're going to talk through with you today. And then Joel is going to wrap things up with how we're going to fund our capital plan and the corresponding impacts. So let's get started. Our vision is to be the premier energy infrastructure company in North America now and in the future. Essentially, we want to transport and deliver the energy people need every day whatever form it takes. So as the energy supply mix evolves, our portfolio will evolve along with it. Our goal is to develop and build a platform that will enable us to prosper irrespective of the pace and direction energy transition takes. The good news is that all forms of energy supply will be required to meet demand. What you see here on the graph on the left-hand side is a forecast of global energy demand from now through 2050, and you see that demand will constantly continue to grow, driven by global population growth and macroeconomic growth. Now the various wedges, which represent the various forms of supply, will grow at different paces, and that will be driven by policy and regulation, efficiency improvements, technological innovation and reliability and cost competitiveness. But the good news is, from an infrastructure investor standpoint, this growth supports the need for significant investment in energy infrastructure. Now our long-term strategy is driven by a few beliefs. Those beliefs will drive our capital allocation framework based on what we expect the pace and direction of energy transition will be, and then we will make adjustments along the way as we get more data on its pace and direction. And the first is that we believe that natural gas will continue to play a pivotal role in North America's energy future, so we're very comfortable that the overwhelming majority of our EBITDA today is derived from our gas businesses. And if you look at our $29 billion capital program, the majority of that capital is being invested into our natural gas business. We also believe that liquids will remain an important part of the value mix, that investment in renewables and firming resources as the economy looks to lower its emissions will grow significantly, and those firming resources include lithium-ion batteries, pumped hydro storage and other forms of firming. And as well, as it becomes more challenging to develop greenfield linear infrastructure, the value of existing assets, particularly for those who have the ability to undertake in-corridor expansions, such as TC Energy, will continually increase. So what hasn't changed over the last 20 or 30 years are as follows: Our core principles have never changed and where we invest capital has constantly changed. Our core principles are that dividend growth should be supported by earnings and cash flow growth per share, that payout ratio should be conservative, that balance sheet strength and flexibility is a competitive advantage as we've demonstrated by opportunistically acquiring assets over the last many decades at points of market disruption. And in situations where we have an opportunity to invest capital in excess of our free cash flow, capital rotation should compete with the issuance of common shares. Now where we have allocated and will allocate capital has evolved. If you look over the last 20 years or so, as the Alberta power markets unbundled, we invested in the coal-fired PPAs. We repurposed underutilized natural gas infrastructure to oil service, which is what is our -- now our base Keystone system. We invested in nuclear by acquiring British Energy's interest in Bruce Power. And even the acquisition of Columbia was about reversing flow of natural gas on long interstate pipelines from north to south to move natural gas from the Appalachian Basin down to the Gulf Coast. So how will we think about allocating capital in the future? The first thing we're focused on is improving the breadth and cost competitiveness of the services we provide. We aim to be the lowest-cost transporter from the very best, fastest-growing, lowest-cost basins in North America to the highest value markets. We'll look to extend the life of our assets. We've got several hydrogen pilots under consideration where we would be blending hydrogen in with the methane stream. We have several customers who are very interested in exploring those, and those will strengthen their carbon competitiveness as well as that of our assets. And by that, I mean, we will be able to lower our overall emissions and work with them and enable them to lower theirs. And of course, in the goal of establishing a platform that will prosper, irrespective of the pace or direction energy transition takes, we'll be looking to increase diversification gradually over time. We will intentionally migrate our portfolio composition over time. What you see on the left-hand side of the chart here based on our 2021 estimated consolidated EBITDA of $9.4 billion is the EBITDA contribution expressed as a percentage for each of our 5 businesses. Now if we were to proportionately consolidate Bruce Power, which we don't. We equity-account for it, so we only include earnings before tax from Bruce Power in our EBITDA. That number -- the aggregate number would be $9.8 billion and the Power and Storage wedge would be 9%. So this is not a conversation about GAAP accounting. I think -- when I think about the value and the composition of our portfolio, I think about Power and Storage currently contributing 9% of our EBITDA, and we expect the Power and Storage weighting to grow over time. Our goal is for that -- for the Power and Storage wedge to make up 12% to 15% of our consolidated EBITDA by 2026, which is the horizon we're discussing with you today. Our Natural Gas Pipelines will continue to attract capital, driven by the growth in LNG exports and coal-to-gas conversions for power generation. Liquids Pipelines investments will be modest, and they'll be tied to enhancing the value of that corridor that we own from Hardisty all the way down to the Gulf Coast. And we will make measured investments in new technologies but without taking commodity price or volumetric risk. So we gave ourselves some homework for 2021: our priorities, and I'm pleased to present to you and report back positive outcomes across the board. Our first goal was deliver strong operating and financial performance. Comparable EPS is up 5% year-to-date. And as we mentioned about a month ago in our third quarter disclosure, we've upgraded our outlook to what we've provided in February in our fourth quarter disclosure. Every year, our goal is to sanction $5-plus billion of new projects, including regulated maintenance capital, in a manner consistent with our risk preferences and with a weighted average return of that portfolio of newly sanctioned projects of 7% to 9%. We exceeded that objective this year. Based on our sanctioning now, our Board sanctioning of the Mod III program underpinned by the TECO rate case settlement, as well as our expectation that the Bruce Power Board will sanction the Unit 3 major component replacement project in December -- later in December, we expect to sanction $7 billion of projects this year, all underpinned by long-term contracts or a regulation with an unlevered after-tax IRR of 8.3%, so above the midpoint of that 7% to 9% range. We progressed numerous energy transition growth initiatives, and this one is very important, firstly, because in conversations with partners, joint venture partners and customers, we've come to the conclusion that it is eminently feasible for us to have commercial underpinnings on long-term contracts that are consistent with our existing risk preferences, and the return expectations are consistent with historical levels that we've managed to realize, such that we believe energy transition investments will be able to successfully compete for capital inside of TC Energy within our capital allocation process. Positively, we've significantly advanced opportunities in renewables, which Cory will walk you through in a bit more detail later on. And we've entered into joint development agreements to develop hydrogen hubs and of course a CCUS transportation and storage grid in partnership with Pembina. We've prudently funded our $7 billion of capital spend in 2021 to maintain strong liquidity and a strong financial position. And we also simplified our corporate structure by buying in our U.S. MLP, thereby removing some of the structural subordination in the cash flows from that entity. We've strengthened our organizational capabilities. This is about building the platform to enable us to prosper, irrespective of the pace and direction of energy transition. Origination is going to be much more about cross-functional conversations. Developing hydrogen hubs is about carbon capture. It's about developing renewable portfolios, and it's about storage and pipeline project development, all things we know how to do well, but you need to originate those projects in a much different way. We stood up an innovation council. We have a dedicated ELT member now, focusing entirely on stakeholder relations, and we stood up an energy transition group to help us think through how we want to allocate capital, where it makes sense for us to move forward on our own and where we should be developing strategic partnerships around certain of the risks we'll be evaluating, all things that will help advance us towards developing that platform. And finally, we set sustainability goals -- pardon me, set goals for all 10 of our sustainability commitments, goals that include tangible reductions in our emissions intensity by 30% by 2030. Now we're advancing a $29 billion capital program over the next 5 years, and I know this number is different than what you've seen us talk about in the recent past. Let me build a bridge for you. In early November, we talked about our $22 billion program over the next 3 years that we hoped to increase to $25 billion by the end of the year. Now with the sanctioning of the Modernization II program supported by the TECO rate case settlement that was filed and the expectation that Bruce Power will -- the Bruce Power Board will approve the Unit 3 MCR, we do expect to get to that $25 billion number over the next 3 years. But given our desire to provide you with more transparency and more visibility about our longer-term outlook, we've now added years 4 and 5 and maintenance capital of approximately $2 billion a year in 2025 and 2026, and that's what gets you to the $29 billion number over the next 5 years. You see on the bubble chart on the left-hand side a breakdown of where that capital is going to be allocated. But aggregating it on the right-hand side, you see that over $23 billion of that is -- will be invested and is being invested in our Natural Gas Pipelines businesses, reinforced by cost of service regulation or long-term take-or-pay contracts. Over $4 billion in our Power and Storage business, supporting the Unit 6 MCR, which is underway and is on time and on budget, and the Unit 3 MCR that we expect the Board to approve. All of that as well underpinned by a long-term contract with the Ontario IESO, a AA-rated counterparty, that extends out to 2064. And then we include a $200 million project in our Liquids business, supported by a 25-year take-or-pay contract. So again, from the risk preferences standpoint, the entire $29 billion program is underpinned by long-term contracts or regulation, so in a manner consistent with our risk preferences. And the weighted average unlevered IRR of the entire $29 billion portfolio is approximately 8%. so at the midpoint of our 7% to 9% range. As we think about allocating capital beyond our existing program, we believe we are well positioned to deliver decarbonization solutions to large emitters. What we've plotted out on this map, and it's very interesting, all the dots are the large GHG emitters across the United States and Canada across all industries, industrials as well as power generation. And we overlaid on top of that our liquids, natural gas pipelines as well as our power assets, and what you see is very good overlap with the way -- where those emitters are. And what we've learned in our conversations with those emitters is that our assets are an essential part of them achieving their emission-reduction objectives. In essence, our assets are a barrier to entry to those who wish to deliver emission-reduction solutions to large emitters which allows us to conclude that this world-class footprint will allow us to develop a broad spectrum of projects involving carbon capture, hydrogen as well as renewables going forward. So we put it in another way just to make sure that we're very clear on where our confidence comes from, and we've built sort of an annual stack of where that capital could be allocated and what the sources could be. On the left-hand side, let's build from the bottom up. The dark blue is our regulated maintenance capital. And that is already included in our $29 billion program throughout -- through to 2026. That's $1.6 billion or $1.7 billion a year, on average, that will be recovered in rates. The medium blue wedge is the -- are the Bruce Power refurbishment and upgrade projects, which should make up, on average, $800 million to $900 million a year. The light blue wedge are in-corridor expansions and modernization programs of our natural gas pipelines, projects like the VR project and the WR Project that were sanctioned this year in our U.S. gas business. Reducing our emissions by replacing older, more inefficient gas turbines with more efficient turbines or electric drive or dual-drive motors where we reduce our emissions, we increase the throughput and improve the reliability of our compressor stations. When you add that all together, we're at $4 billion before we even start looking at the set of future opportunities, which are on the right-hand side of this slide. Those include electrification of our pipeline network. We're starting with our Liquids business and electrifying the approximately 700 megawatts of power consumed on the U.S. side of our base Keystone system. There will be opportunities to do more of this with our natural gas pipeline infrastructure as will be evidenced by the greater number of WR and VR-type projects. We have other in-corridor growth, capital-light investments or taking capital that's already been invested and getting it cash flowing more or cash flowing. Our Marketlink system, for example, getting more barrels through that system over the next 5 years. We're going to bring our Villa De Reyes project into service in 2022. That's almost USD 1 billion of capital in the ground that will start cash flowing, so there's some low-hanging fruit there. Remember that in Power and Storage, it's not just about renewables. It's also about nuclear, and it's also about firming resources. We have 2 very exciting projects under development. What you know as Meaford, we've now rebranded our Ontario pump storage project. We've made significant advancements in the development of that project over 2021, which you'll hear more about later. And then our Canyon Creek project in Alberta, which is permitted, and we expect to advance to a final investment decision during 2022. You're aware, of course, of our partnership with Pembina in developing the Alberta Carbon Grid, and we've signed joint development agreements with Irving Oil, Nikola and Hyzon to develop hydrogen hubs as well as other emission-reducing projects. The important point about Irving, Nikola and Hyzon is these are demand sinks. We've decided to partner with organizations and entities that will actually need the commodity. We've had those conversations with them about how to underpin this capital, which is what gives us the confidence that we can maintain our conservative risk preferences and not take on commodity price or volumetric risk. So this leads us to be very confident in our ability to sanction $5-plus billion of projects annually throughout the decade. Now as to our outlook, out to 2026. The $29 billion program that we've laid out over the next 5 years, in addition to some revenue enhancement initiatives and cost initiatives on our existing assets, gives us line of sight to compound annual growth rate over the next 5 years of 5%. Now to the extent we have the ability to originate and put into service new in-corridor projects, projects involving new technologies or further cost reductions or revenue enhancements, we expect to be able to exceed that 5% compound annual growth rate. Now let's talk about the dividend. I'm sure you're all aware that at the beginning of November, we announced our decision to moderate the growth in our dividend to a rate of 3% to 5% over the near and medium term. Over the ensuing weeks, I've had several conversations, actually very supportive conversations with some of our largest shareholders. Inevitably, they ask following question: How did you make the decision and what's changed? So let's talk about it. The first thing is that we are considerably more confident in the opportunity set and our ability to allocate capital and grow going into 2022 than we were in 2021 in the no-KXL scenario, assuming that, that project would fall away. Second, in the conversations we've had with large emitters and partners in the joint development agreements. We've become more confident and convinced that we will be able to allocate capital in those new areas in a manner consistent with our risk preferences and with returns that are commensurate with our historical practice. That vast opportunity set has caused us to aim for building more dry powder to be opportunistic when market dislocations occur. As I mentioned earlier, this is something that we have been particularly effective at over the last many decades, and we want to have the flexibility or more flexibility to be able to do that. So those 3 things cause us to want to retain more cash than we have historically. When you combine that with the fact, our belief, as we talked about in our core beliefs on capital allocation, that balance sheet strength is a strategic enabler and that conservative payout ratios of earnings create value over the long term, and we look at peer companies and the dividend growth that they're laying out, and we believe 3% to 5% is very competitive with that, this was a very clear decision in our goal to deliver long-term value at all points of the economic cycle. Now I'd be remiss if I didn't say something about our executive leadership team. I'm very confident with the executive team that we've compiled here. In aggregate, we have over 300 years of experience around the executive leadership table. Over 200 of those years are in the energy industry. But importantly, nearly 100 of those years are outside the energy industry. And as we strive to innovate and to be more creative and to be more competitive, I think those experiences are going to serve us extremely well. Once again, I hope that we would have been able to do this meeting in person, and you would have had a chance to get to know our team a bit better. We're doing this virtually this year. But hopefully, next year, we'll be doing this face to face. So let's talk about our 2022 homework, and our plan is to take these priorities and report progress against these priorities throughout the year. First, as this is our license to operate, we must continue to safely deliver the energy people need every day. Second, we want to squeeze more out of our existing assets. We want to improve our return on invested capital in our existing businesses through revenue enhancements, innovations like our autonomous pipeline, where we're able to create, on a temporary basis, incremental capacity during the times of highest need, like extreme cold or extreme heat. We are going to place $6.5 billion of assets in service in 2022 on time and on budget. This year, for assets that went into service, we were actually under budget and ahead of schedule in a large number of instances. As is the case every year, our goal is to sanction an additional $5-plus billion of high-quality growth opportunities, including regulated maintenance capital. We wish to maintain our financial strength and flexibility, progress our sustainability targets, including reducing our GHG emissions intensity, and continue to enhance our organizational capabilities to help us build the platform that will prosper, irrespective of the pace and direction energy transition takes. So my key takeaway for you today is that we are confident in our ability to grow. What we've learned over the last year is that we have a sustainable competitive advantage because of the breadth and the quality of our footprint, and this competitive advantage will allow us to originate and source a compelling portfolio of future growth opportunities as well. Thank you for your attention this morning. I will come back at the end of the program and take questions. I'm now pleased to pass the microphone over to Patrick Keys, our General Counsel and Chief Sustainability Officer, who will walk you through our sustainability goals.

Thank you, Francois, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to talk with you this morning about TC Energy's approach to sustainability. Now as Francois highlighted earlier, sustainability is an integral component of our corporate vision, and it's strongly embedded in our company, and it has been for decades. I'll briefly highlight some of these critical practices and the activities and the innovative work that's being done across our company in the sustainability space. At TC Energy, sustainability means meeting today's energy needs while safely, reliably and economically finding responsible solutions for our energy future. Our philosophy is grounded in our core values of safety, responsibility, collaboration, integrity and innovation. Sustainability is also not new to us. It's foundational in everything we do and how we approach the myriad of environmental, social and governance matters that are critical to the long-term financial performance and the ultimate sustainability, of course, of our company. However, sustainability -- our sustainability journey and our related reporting processes, they're not static. They continue to evolve, mature and ultimately improve in both the detail, the transparency and the ambition that we've made significant and demonstrable progress. 2021 marked a new milestone in our journey when we set voluntary targets and metrics for all of our sustainability commitments. And this slide here outlines those 10 sustainability commitments, which, collectively, address the topics that matter most to our company and to our stakeholders. These commitments also align with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, and they address the 3 key focal areas of our sustainability philosophy: protecting our planet, promoting shared prosperity and empowering people. Now throughout the subsequent presentations today, you're going to hear examples of the progress that we're making in meeting these targets across our company, and you'll see how ESG is embedded in what we do and how we do it across all of our business units and our corporate functions. So let me start with the E in ESG: environmental. So TC Energy has a long history in environmental stewardship and protecting all aspects of the environment, both in relation to the critical energy infrastructure that we build and operate, and of course, in the communities where we live and work. Now our fundamental philosophy and our unwavering commitment is to leave the environment in a condition equal to or better than we found it, and we have a proven track record that demonstrates our commitment to this philosophy. Of course, climate change is a paramount issue in the context of environmental stewardship. And we recognize the seriousness of the issue, and we recognize we have an important role to play in moving to a less carbon-intensive future through energy transition. In fact, we don't see it as an obligation. We see energy transition as an opportunity to both strengthen the resilience of our existing energy platforms and to make disciplined, strategic investments in lower-carbon assets. And in the context of emissions, in the last year, we completed a rigorous review and analysis to establish our climate-related goals. In October, we announced our targets: reduce GHG emissions intensity from our operations 30% by 2030 and position the company to achieve net-zero emissions from our operations by 2050. These targets offer credible, tangible, medium- and long-term objectives that we're going to hold ourselves accountable to. They're grounded in data. They're grounded in rigorous analysis, a costed action plan and a strategy that's been approved by our Board of Directors. So how do we plan to get there? Well, we're targeting 5 focus areas to reduce the emissions intensity of our operations while also capturing the growth opportunities to meet the energy needs of the future. Our plan allows flexibility, and there are 5 levers that we can pull to achieve our targets: the first, modernizing our existing systems and assets; second, decarbonizing our energy consumption; third, investing in low-carbon energy and infrastructure; fourth, we're driving and adopting emerging technologies as they evolve; and lastly, we continue to evaluate and leverage carbon credits and offsets which we believe are going to be a critical component in responsibly managing emissions in the near term. Overall, we have a strong plan, and we're confident we can achieve these emissions targets in a very structured, disciplined way under parameters that preserve the value of our existing assets and that also create opportunities for investments in new ones, consistent with our existing risk and contracting profiles. And also new in 2021, we've set specific targets for leaving the environment where we work in a condition that's equal to or better than we found it. We aim to fully restore or offset any disturbances that our work creates. It starts with an environmental impact assessment on every project that we undertake. We rely on indigenous and community knowledge and information gathered from scientists, engineers and other experts to develop our project-specific environmental protection plans. We also invest in activities that restore biodiversity and that reduce the impacts of climate change, working with over 75 conservation organizations across North America. Now in the context of our corporate giving programs, we're targeting $1.2 million per year that specifically and directly supports environmental-focused partnerships. That brings me to the social component of our ESG framework, which is represented under our sustainability pillars in the categories of empowering people and promoting shared prosperity. So I'm going to start with safety, which is foundational and fundamental to our corporate values, and it's our top priority. We remain dedicated to personal safety, asset integrity and public safety. Those are core to our continued ability to operate. And our approach to safety includes a mindset that zero is real, zero harm, zero loss, zero incidents. And that means it's critical that robust operating programs are in place and followed for all aspects of our work, from monitoring to cybersecurity to emergency preparedness. We've also widened the scope of our conversations about safety well beyond traditional topics of process and operational safety. We take a much broader perspective now to safety, which, for us, includes environmental safety, mental health and psychological safety. And in fact, we've placed increasing emphasis on removing stigmas around mental health and building a stronger culture of wellness. For example, we implemented a peer-to-peer support network of trained volunteer mental health champions within our organization, and we're developing very specific mental health training for all of our leaders. We also continue to build on our long history and our engagement with indigenous peoples to ensure a more equitable future. Now this is a natural evolution that's come from our learnings from listening and working with more than 240 indigenous communities across our footprints over the past 40 years. In March of this year, we published our Reconciliation Action Plan, and that had 6 tangible, measurable targets to recognize our responsibilities and to articulate our commitments, to advance reconciliation between indigenous and nonindigenous peoples. And we've made tangible progress in 2021 on the elements of those commitments, and we continue to advance initiatives to support economic, social and cultural capacity building within indigenous communities. However, for us, reconciliation is a journey. It's not a destination, and there remains a lot of work we know to be done. We're thankful for the feedback that we've received so far and we continue, frankly, to receive from the indigenous communities and partners which is going to help shape our future goals and our actions. Strengthening community resilience is also a part of our corporate fabric. Across North America, we strongly support the people and the communities where we live and work. We provide quality jobs. We purchase from local businesses and suppliers, and we partner with the communities themselves to help them be more vibrant, prosperous and resilient places. For example, our supplier diversity program. It enhances opportunities for diverse local and indigenous communities to participate in our projects and our operations. In 2020, we spent over $1 billion with diverse suppliers in Canada and the U.S. Now this includes our own direct spending as well as indirect spending by our prime suppliers and general contractors, and we're targeting to increase our spending with these diverse suppliers by 5% year-over-year through to 2022. We also remain committed to our annual corporate giving and volunteering programs. In 2020, we gave over $31 million to the communities where we live and work. And this year, we're on track to exceed that amount. And the participation rate of our employees in our giving program consistently outperforms our peers, both within and outside our industries. Now another way that we're supporting our workforce and our communities is through our strong commitment to fostering inclusion and diversity. We know there's more work to be done to combat intolerance and racial injustice in society, and we know we have a role to play in that. We believe the diverse opinions and perspectives strengthen our culture and enhance our performance, and that's why we're taking specific actions to more strongly embed a culture of inclusion across our organization. Our inclusion and diversity action plan released in this year's report on sustainability ensures that we will make continued and defined progress. For example, to ground our efforts and to ensure that we take relevant and concrete action, we have an inclusion and diversity executive council. That's a group of leaders in our company that's focused on progressing inclusion across the organization, and it's led by a member of our executive team. That brings me to governance, the third piece of our ESG framework. So we believe that robust corporate governance processes and strong risk management are really foundational elements of our overall ESG program. With good governance in place, we'll ensure we'll not only do the E and the S effectively but that we're able to robustly measure and to track our performance, providing clear transparency to both our investors and to the broader public. So in this context, with strong centralized enterprise risk management process, and that's integral to successfully operating our business now. That process identifies and assesses key enterprise risks, including ESG-related risks, that could have the potential to materially impact our business, our operations or ultimately achieving our strategic objectives. The ERM process is executed through a very clear, a very well-defined framework that has strong involvement and accountabilities at all levels of our organization, including strong Board oversight. In fact, our Board of Directors provides rigorous oversight of all ESG matters through multiple points. Four of our Board committees have oversight over specific ESG components. And this slide here details some of the accountabilities of these committees. Ultimately, our full Board has oversight, of course, of all ESG matters, which includes our ERM program; a comprehensive annual strategic planning process; the risks and the opportunities that are related to the material capital project decisions that we have to make; and of course, matters that otherwise aren't within the ambit of a specific committee. Overall, we have a very robust governance and strong risk management framework across our enterprise, and it serves us well. It's contributed to strong performance of our business historically, and it's going to ensure that we remain sustainable over the long term. Now I was only able today to skim the surface of our company's commitments to sustainability and to ESG. What I hope you take away from my remarks and for those that are going to follow me today is an awareness of our strong commitment to sustainability and our rigorous and our disciplined approach. For us, sustainability and ESG, as I said before, they're not obligations. They're opportunities. Opportunities to demonstrate our strengths to create value and to ensure that we remain relevant and viable in the future. They're long-standing areas of importance for us and focus, and they've afforded us a 70-year history of success and a proven track record of disciplined decision-making and ultimately delivering value. All levels of our organization are incredibly proud and motivated by the alignment between our ESG goals and our vision for the future, including our workforce who are passionately engaged in what we do, how we do it, and most importantly, how we keep getting better. So to learn more about our commitments and to track our progress. I encourage you to spend some time reviewing our recently released report on sustainability, our ESG data sheet, our GHG emissions-reduction plan and our reconciliation action plan, all of which you can find, of course, on our website. So thank you for your time today. I look forward to taking some of your questions.

Thanks for those comments, Patrick. Just a reminder to those of you listening this morning, we do encourage you to submit your questions using the Q&A function on the webcast. But perhaps while we wait, Patrick, a couple of questions that we're often asked by the investment community relates to stakeholder engagement and our plans around GHG reductions. So maybe I'll start with -- first one would be -- you addressed the Reconciliation Action Plan. I'm just wondering how or whether you expect that to allow us to gain support from indigenous communities as we continue to advance things like our $29 billion capital program.

Yes. Thank you, David. That's a good question. The short answer to that is, yes, we do. We've been making tangible progress, as I indicated in my remarks a few minutes earlier, on our Reconciliation Action Plan. One of the elements of that, for example, is the creation of an indigenous advisory council to help educate, inform and ultimately provide guidance and direction to our executive management team and also to the Board on how we interact with them, the indigenous communities, where we have projects and where we live and work and operate our facilities. And I'm pleased to say that we're moving forward with that advisory council. We're bringing respected leaders into that council and establishing the mandate for that going forward in 2022. And we really believe that having a diverse range of perspectives of individuals who are leaders in their community, who are in tune with the business and how we can interact better and smarter and create that vibrancy in both communities for a shared future is really going to benefit us all.

Okay. And then turning to the environment, Patrick. We're often asked whether or not we would consider a Scope 3 reduction target when it comes to GHG emissions. And really, a second part to that, we're also often asked whether or not we would tie or will tie our GHG reduction targets to executive compensation.

Both good questions, David. Let me deal with the second one first, and that's GHG targets. I can say the short answer to that is that they are tied to executive compensation now going forward in a number of different ways, directly and indirectly. You'll see in a number of the presentations that follow me today with our business unit leaders some of their 2022 priorities and objectives, and you're going to see in those priorities and objectives a direct requirement and recognition of the need to advance both our GHG emissions-reductions plans but also to advance our sustainability targets and ultimately achieve them. And that's going to tie back through those scorecards directly to executive compensation. Another element that I think of in that context, too, is, of course, as Francois said, we are looking at and actually making investments today in ways to reduce our overall GHG emissions and reduce our carbon footprint. And ultimately, it's going to be the financial benefit and the rigor that we put around that and the risk and contract profile that will result in financial performance for the company and again ties back to executive compensation.

Great. Thanks for those comments, Patrick. That concludes our session on environmental, social and governance matters. We'll now turn the podium over to Tracy Robinson and Stan Chapman, who are going to take us through our Natural Gas Pipelines business.

Good morning. It's wonderful to be here with you today, even if only virtually, and thank you all for being with us. Now I know that many of you are interested in how our expansion program is progressing and in the growth opportunities that we see as we look forward, particularly through this lens of sustainability. So in the next 15 minutes or so, I'm going to do 3 things. I'll highlight the strength of the position of our natural gas pipeline infrastructure in the North American network with an emphasis on why our network is so well positioned to continue to deliver growth. I'll review our progress in Canada and delivering to our 2021 priorities, and I'll explain why I'm so confident in our positioning as we turn from that peak expansion on the Canadian system to a more normalized pace of growth that's going to continue to allow us to build that connectivity, enhance our long-term reliability and the sustainability of the system. So I'm going to spend a few minutes first just setting the stage on the fundamentals of the North American market, and then I'll turn to the Canadian business. Stan will then take you through an overview of our plans for the Gas Pipeline business in the U.S. and in Mexico. So I believe you're familiar with our gas assets. They sit on top of the 2 most prolific, low-cost basins on the continent: the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and the Appalachian Basin in the Northeast U.S. Now this gives our company a significant pipe in the ground advantage and the ability to deliver gas to key markets in North America and to LNG facilities serving the global marketplace. Now in North America, we deliver right now about 25% of the gas that the continent needs every day to power lives and fuel industry, and these needs are growing. The International Energy Agency forecasts that global demand for natural gas is going to increase by more than 30% by 2040. And we know that North America gas will play a role in meeting that demand for clean burning, reliable sources of energy, and we know it's going to be an increasing role. Now this year, for example, in North America, provided -- we provided almost 20% of that world demand for LNG. By 2040, this continent is expected to be the single-largest LNG supplier, holding about 26% of that growing global demand. Now natural gas, we all know, is a fundamental component of the lower-carbon sustainable energy mix. We're showing our internal projections here on this slide but enhanced also by some forecast by the government of Mexico. We expect demand for natural gas to grow on this continent by as much as 25% between now and 2030, driven by growth in all of the sectors, but most dramatically, of course, by the coal-to-gas fuel efforts and by the global demand for LNG. So as I said earlier, North American gas is competitive in the global marketplace. And as these markets grow and North America steps into that 26% share, we'll see demand for gas to feed these exports grow here by more than 100%. This gas is largely going to be used to offset higher-emitting sources of energy in other parts of the world, and our assets are strategically positioned to take advantage of these growing market demands, both at home and overseas. We are about connecting competitive natural gas to key markets. So let's talk about that competitive natural gas. Overall, we'll see supply in the continent match that 25% growth in demand, and it's going to come from all of the basins. But supply from the WCSB and the Appalachian basins is set to grow by about 13 billion cubic feet a day over the next 10 years. Now that's about the equivalent of another WCSB-sized basin of supply being added to the mix in the next decade. And the basins that we serve produce really well-placed, low-cost gas. In the Marcellus and the Utica is due to high well productivity and in the WCSB is due to high natural gas liquids content, most specifically condensate. This supports our ability to deliver gas to most of the demand centers on the continent. And it's not just its cost competitors that makes this gas attractive in the global markets. It's also produced in a way that minimizes environmental impact. If you consider the global pledges to reduce methane like those agreed to, even last month at the COP26, these give countries with strong environmental performance records, like the U.S. and Canada, an advantage over those with less stringent regulations. And North American LNG has some of the lowest-emission intensity in the world. This differentiates us on a global stage. So sitting atop the 2 world-class basins, spanning the continent, our Natural Gas Pipeline business will continue to play an important role in the integrated energy system for decades. Now let me turn to the Canadian business. Our business is unfolding in 2021 exactly as we expected it to. Our earnings will grow 16% over last year. This is on top of our compound growth rate of about 10% over the last 5 years. In Canada, we have 40,000 kilometers of pipe dedicated to moving that low-cost WCSB supply to key continental demand centers. For us, this is about the opportunity to position the WCSB gas competitively in markets across the continent. And our role is to ensure that the basin has the right amount of competitively priced capacity to do that. We're responding to that challenge on multiple fronts. Our volumes across the system are strong. Flows on the NGTL System were up about 1 billion cubic feet a day. Receipts have recently and quite consistently exceeded 13 billion cubic feet a day. That's a high-water mark that we haven't seen since the beginning of the century. Volumes moving on the mainline this summer reached an average of 3.2 billion cubic feet a day. We haven't seen that since 2009. Deliveries out the western part of the system also reached a 20-year record. So this growth in volume has been driven by an intense focus on getting more out of our assets and by our expansion program, and we're delivering on those expansion commitments that we've made to our customers. This year, we will bring more than $1.3 billion worth of pipe and facilities into service on time and on budget. This is the 2021 component of a much larger program. We've been working on this expansion with our customers since 2017. And in 2024, when it's complete, we'll have positioned our assets effectively in the Montney supply and added 3.5 billion cubic feet a day in delivery capacity to multiple markets. As we stand here today, we have just over 7 billion of additional expansion capacity to put in place by 2024 to complete the program and also to add that last 2.4 billion cubic feet a day of delivery capacity. Now our Coastal GasLink pipeline will also serve the basin, and it's now more than 50% complete. When it goes in service, it will directly connect that WCSB gas to the Asian markets and provide a delivery capacity of about 2.1 billion cubic feet a day. Now so the 2 of them, when those 2 programs are complete, we will have added 5.5 Bcf a day of incremental delivery capacity. That's about 45% growth. It's pretty significant. And importantly, we're driving these gains in the right way. We are building in a manner that creates partners in various ways of many of our stakeholders. We've leveraged our early work with CGL and our indigenous and community partners to create those same kind of connections across our full system. So far this year, we've entered into 11 broad agreements with indigenous groups across Alberta, and we hope to raise that by 15 -- to 15 by the end of the year. So those, combined with our CGL agreements, will bring us to a total of 35 mutually beneficial arrangements that support each community's local priorities. And we're lightening our touch from an emissions perspective. In 2021, we've reported a 20% reduction in fugitive methane emissions. And we've achieved this by innovating -- installing state-of-the-art technologies and adapting our practices to drive emissions down. innovative pilots like the one we did on our LIDAR, which is our leak detection and repair system. First of its kind of eliminated about 200,000 tons of CO2 equivalent of methane emissions in its first 18 months of operation. Or ZEVAC, a zero emissions vacuum and compressor unit was installed during an in-line inspection, eliminated all the methane releases during that inspection work, or we've got Canada's first methane capture and reinjection kit that we installed in a compressor in Manitoba. It reinjected the captured methane back into the pipeline instead of releasing them to the atmosphere. So there's some really exciting innovation and is gathering momentum. So 2021 has been a pretty busy year. But as we look forward, there's much more coming. So I'm confident that the successes that we achieved in 2021 are going to continue to build. We are well positioned and the fundamentals that underpin our business are strong. Let me tell you why. Demand for Canadian gas is going to continue to grow. It's going to be primarily driven by the continued transition from coal to gas on this continent and by the increase in that LNG push into global markets. So the WCSB produces some of the lowest-cost gas in the continent and enabled by our expansion is going to continue to be competitive in serving both of these needs. And as gas demand grows, in an increasingly complex regulatory and stakeholder environment, our infrastructure that is strategically located and our portfolio of commercially sanctioned expansions will give us a meaningful advantage over any kind of greenfield build. So looking forward, over the next decade and beyond, we're well positioned to participate as an increasingly vital part of Canada's energy mix. Now of course, our regulated Canadian gas pipeline system is kind of the backbone of the WCSB, but no discussion of our business, the basin or Canada's energy future would be complete without touching on Coastal GasLink. This pipeline, along with the LNG Canada liquefaction facility will provide 2.1 billion cubic feet a day of WCSB gas to LNG markets in Asia and participate in the transition of coal to gas in that continent. This potential Phase 2 expansion would increase that capacity up to about 5 Bcf a day. Now we believe strongly in this project. The impact it will have on emissions globally, the impact it will have and is having on communities in Northern British Columbia, the impact it will have on positioning responsibly produced gas from Western Canada in markets that need it. I'm proud that we're part of this effort, and I'm proud of the progress that we've made. Coastal GasLink is a complex undertaking, and that kind of complexity always bring challenges, especially in times like a pandemic. But despite those challenges, our team has worked with considerable conviction and the project is now more than 50% complete. And we look forward to continuing to work with our partners, all of our partners on completing this pipeline and on creating maximum in alignment and positive impact through its construction and through the more than 40 years that we'll partner in its operation. So if we look towards energy transition, building on our platform, we're going to continue to transport the energy that people need today while we innovate and adapt to a more sustainable future. Today, in the near term, our focus is clear: it's about discipline. Discipline in the approach to completing our current expansion program and optimizing our operations and innovating to drive immediate emissions reductions. In the near to medium term, we'll position our system to connect to the next tranche of supply into emerging demand centers and to ensure the reliability of our system to serve these markets. Our investments will support the transition to natural gas and away from coal-fired power generation. As an example, the Alberta Energy Regulator is projecting a nearly 70% growth in gas demand from the power sector between now and 2030. That's an opportunity we're going to step into. In addition, we're developing new services that facilitate flow to existing and new markets like the LNG tolling solutions that are going to help NGTL gas access export markets through CGL. And as we complete the execution of our expansion program, our focus will shift to connecting that migrating supply, capturing the emergency demand things and continuing enhancements in reliability and electrification of our compression. Now combined, that represents about $1.2 billion in ongoing capital investments every year. And you can think about it in this way, keeping our systems running safely, efficiently, reliably requires about $600 million plus of maintenance capital each year. And this will increase a little bit as our system grows. That capital attracts the same returns as our expansion capital. About 1,000 new wells will be required each year in the WCSB to just maintain current production levels. Keeping up with that supply migration should attract more than $500 million a year in capital investment on the NGTL System. And investing to electrify our compression will increase cost competitiveness, ensure sustainability by reducing emissions. We plan to do the first tranche of that in the near term. So that's the $1 billion to $2 billion per year in capital expansion. Now over the longer term, we plan to progress a much broader program of electrification and to enable more low carbon fuels like renewable natural gas and hydrogen. The incumbent advantage offered by our pipe in the ground gives us unique flexibility and optionality to prosper under a full range of energy futures. We are positioning our assets to participate in energy transition in whatever form it takes, closely monitoring global developments in this space. It's also going to allow us to adapt, participate in a manner that supports our customers that reflects our risk profile and that drives value. Now as you heard from Patrick, a few moments ago, we're committed to a full program of sustainability today and into the future. Now this isn't new to us, creating long-term value has been a hallmark of our Canadian gas pipeline business for over 70 years. Our success has been built on our industry-leading capabilities in safety and reliability and stakeholder relationships. But we know that the demands are increasing, and we look forward to the opportunity to step into that to continue to innovate and to get better at what we do. Those capabilities, whether it is innovation we're driving, the partnerships we're building, the understanding that's growing. These capabilities, along with our strategically located asset footprint is going to allow us to turn the challenges of energy transition into an exciting set of opportunities. And we believe that sustainability and commercial success are not mutually exclusive. Under the terms of our long-term settlements, our customers and our other partners will share with us in the advances we're making on emissions reduction, improving the competitiveness of the WCSB and of our assets. So the sustainable approach we're taking to growth is reflected in our overall plan. Now the expansions we're currently completing on our regulated assets have been years in the making. And over the last 5 years, NGTL's investment beta space has more than doubled. And when our expansions are complete at the end of 2024, it will be at 2.5x the level it was in 2016. Last year, we completed the largest annual program we've ever done. We're continuing that success this year as we're on track to place another $1.3 billion worth of projects into service. And in 2024, when this peak expansion is complete, we'll have positioned the system on top of the right supply and with significant access to markets across North America. And post 2024, our capital growth will normalize into that $1 billion to $2 billion per year range as we focus on targeted connections, migrating supply, emerging demand as well as sustaining maintenance and capital and the first level of kind of GHG emissions reductions. Our earnings growth is going to normalize as well. So the charts that you see on this slide consider -- don't have that growth, the $1 billion to $2 billion of growth in it. That growth is not yet sanctioned. So our growth in investment base between 2021 and 2026 under that scenario will moderate to about a 2% rate. Higher as we complete the current program, lower beyond that. This is that scenario where we continue to just maintain the system. But as we do sanction the other growth capital I mentioned, that growth rate will increase to about 3% or more. Similarly, our net income will expand at a much-moderated rate of 1% if we have no further investment in growth or 2% or more as that growth beyond maintenance is sanctioned. Now it's important to note that this is net of the impact of depreciation, which continues to grow. And over this period, we'll reach more than $1.3 billion each year. Now because of the rate-regulated nature of our system, depreciation and other items like taxes and financing costs are flow through. So as depreciation increases, so does EBITDA and so does cash. This depreciation comes back as cash that can be reinvested on our system or more broadly across the TCE network. We believe this provides us some good optionality. Now our rate-regulated business will continue to grow as we look forward. As demand expands, as we advance into emissions reduction, electrification, we'll also capitalize on opportunities like the one that Corey is going to talk to you about today to leverage our existing asset base and related investments in other low or emissions reducing assets. So given this landscape, let me tell you what you can expect from us over the next year or so. We're going to approach all that we do, whether it's operations, construction or partnerships with discipline and an unrelenting drive to safety and to excellence in execution. We'll complete the 2022 stage of our NGTL expansion program, and that is delivering $3.5 billion in pipe and facilities into service next year. We'll advance CGL towards an in-service on a timeline that coordinates with the LNG Canada facility. And we'll do it with a focus on protecting and improving the competitiveness of the basin. We know that we only succeed when our customers succeed, that service and capacity matter and so do tools. We'll continue to lighten our touch, reducing emissions through innovations, big and small, and through the first phase of investment in electrification. And we're going to work across our businesses at TC to leverage our footprint to support a transitioning energy mix for a broader economy. You can expect us to continue to deliver strong, stable, predictable financial returns and to focus on the right kind of growth. And finally, as much as we're building the system, we're building the team to be nimble, innovative, committed to a future of improving alignment with our stakeholders and delivering the energy that people need every day, the right energy in a sustainable fashion. We have a strong team. We've done a great job at leveraging our network, including our U.S. pipes to deliver an impressive level of growth, benefiting the basins, benefiting our customers and it's following our bottom line. I'm proud of this team and I'm excited about the capabilities that we're building and how they will advance us to the next level as we look to 2022 and beyond. So with that, I'm going to pass the floor to Stan Chapman to discuss our U.S. and Mexico business units.

Thank you, Tracy, and good morning, everybody. I appreciate the opportunity to share my thoughts with you around our U.S. and Mexico Natural Gas Pipeline business. By the end of our time together, I think you'll find that 2021 was another successful year and that our people and our assets are well positioned to compete for and win our fair share of both traditional and transitional growth in the years to come. So let's start with our U.S. natural gas pipeline business. Many of you are familiar with our assets, which I believe are best-in-class. After the buy-in of TC Pipelines earlier this year, we now own and operate natural gas pipelines and storage infrastructure that spans 32,000 miles across 40 states, and we safely and reliably transport about 27% of the natural gas consumed in the U.S. Our business continues to be supported by solid fundamentals, which not only provides multiple platforms for growth but also form the foundation for another year of record demand for our pipeline capacity. In fact, given the headwinds associated with building new critically needed energy infrastructure, our record performance during 2021 continues to be a proof point for the notion that our existing pipe in the ground is and will continue to be both irreplaceable and extremely valuable. And lastly, we continue to achieve these results without modifying our risk preferences, which remain grounded around long-term take-or-pay contracts, predominantly with investment-grade counterparties. It's our adherence to these risk preferences, along with sound fundamentals and the team's relentless focus on execution that proves that our assets are resilient and are contributing towards a cleaner energy future. So speaking of relentless execution, allow me to take a moment to highlight some of our accomplishments over the past year. It seems like only yesterday that this summer marked the fifth anniversary of then TransCanada's acquisition of Columbia Pipeline Group, and commensurately, this will also be the fifth consecutive year of record earnings across our U.S. natural gas business. During this time, EBITDA from U.S. natural gas has grown by 67% from $1.8 billion in 2017 to $3 billion in 2021. Now I'll get into details further shortly, but we continue to see strong year-over-year throughput increases across our pipes, and our people and our assets performed extraordinarily well during the winter storms and the summer heat. So as I mentioned last year, rate cases will continue to play an increasing role in ensuring we earn a fair and timely return on and of the capital that we deploy. In October, after months of virtual negotiations with our customers and stakeholders, we filed our Columbia Gas rate settlement with FERC. Highlights of that settlement include a $200 million increase to our revenue requirement effective February 1 of this year, with an additional $20 million step-up to take effect on April 1 of 2023. And it includes the continuation of our modernization program to the tune of $1.2 billion over the next 4 years. Now you may recall that under the modernization program, all capital that's placed in service by the end of November of a given year generates cash flow effective April 1 of the following year. So in addition to this, our business development and project teams had a very productive year, sanctioning 3 new projects with a combined capital investment of $1.6 billion, while at the same time placed $2.1 billion of growth, modernization and maintenance capital in service. And lastly, we accomplished all this in part by working smarter, relying on technologies such as artificial intelligence and machine learning to create efficiencies, capture value and improve safety. So as I mentioned earlier, our assets performed exceedingly well during the year. Our pipelines remain highly contracted and highly utilized as evidenced by our year-over-year throughput increase of 5%. And most importantly, our assets performed when needed most, during the coldest of the cold and the hottest of the hot, setting a new 3-day peak delivery record in February and 3 single day delivery records in June. Now amazingly, this is the fourth consecutive year where we've set record peak day deliveries during the year, proving yet again that the value of existing pipe in the ground is at a premium. I mentioned earlier that our business is supported by solid long-term fundamentals. So I thought I'd take a minute to do a bit of a deeper dive. When looking at the fundamentals against the backdrop of many of today's headlines, I can't help but thinking of a quote attributed to Mark Twain that rumors of my death are greatly exaggerated. As contrary to what you may hear about our business, both the near- and longer-term fundamentals are relatively healthy. In the short term, as the pandemic winds down, worldwide economic growth has created strong demand for goods, services and energy at a pace that has exceeded that of supply. That, in conjunction with the intermittency of renewables in Europe, has increased volatility in energy prices, with NYMEX prices hitting a peak of over $6 for this winter and LNG cargoes trading as high as $55 in Asia. So as volatility and higher prices take hold, the optionality that's embedded across our assets will continue to materialize and create value. As an example of that embedded optionality, if we were to sell all of our open capacity across all of our pipes at maximum tariff rates, we would generate an incremental $300 million of revenues annually without having to add any material capital. Longer-term fundamentals are equally favorable. Over the next decade, we project that natural gas demand will grow by 22% led predominantly by LNG exports, industrial growth and power generation. And then similarly, Lower 48 production will grow commensurately with Permian, Appalachian and Gulf Coast Haynesville leading the way. One should note, however, that in our forecast, Appalachia grows to just under 40 Bcf a day and is constrained only by concerns associated with limited takeaway capacity due to the current permitting process and regulatory environment. But notwithstanding the current environment, we continue to have success with both originating new projects and placing existing projects into service. During 2021, we placed $900 million of projects in service. And as we gather here today, we have another $7 billion of growth, modernization and maintenance capital projects that are scheduled to go in service between now and 2025, with another $0.5 billion waiting on FID. So as you've heard me say before, given the breadth of our extensive pipeline network, in any given year, I believe we should be originating about $1 billion of new growth projects. If you look at the map on the right-hand side, you could see that we have growth projects in some form of origination on virtually all of our 13 pipes, all of which are primarily in corridor, permittable, constructible compression-related expansions. Now more on that in a second, but first, when I think of growth opportunities, I think of them as coming in 3 distinct forms. First is optimizing our existing assets to create value by unlocking the embedded optionality within those assets whether it's focusing on cost reductions, generating new capacity sales or deploying artificial intelligence and machine learning like we've recently done with our autonomous pipeline project, I expect that these capital-light opportunities will generate increased revenues or reduced costs, which will enhance our overall return on invested capital. Second is our modernization program, which, as I noted, was recently extended with our rate case settlement and which will continue to be a platform for growth as we invest in the safety, reliability and integrity of our assets so that we can provide our customers with the quality and quantity of service that they demand. And third is growth via system expansions, both in the traditional and transitional sets. So consistent with the map that I showed a few slides ago, we currently have projects in some stage of originations spanning across the 6 different growth areas that are depicted below with a potential cumulative capital investment of $7 billion. Now realistically, not all of these are likely to come to fruition, but I do expect us to compete for and win our fair share and swimming in an origination pool of this size, roughly $7 billion, is what gives me comfort that will land about $1 billion of new projects annually. Now at this point, I can't tell you what the specific portfolio of projects may be in any given year, but I expect us to land projects linked to LDC growth, supply-to-market halls, the next wave of LNG in addition to some larger opportunities. And these larger projects are likely to originate from coal retirements and may include opportunities for us to continue to electrify our compression fleet. Now for example, there are 16 coal plants within 15 miles of our Columbia and ANR pipelines that currently generate about 16 gigawatts of capacity and have announced retirements by 2025. Now while a large portion of this capacity will likely be replaced by renewables, there still would be a residual need for 1 to 2 Bcf a day of incremental pipeline capacity for reliability purposes that is directly adjacent to our footprint. And it is exactly this scenario that led us to our recently announced WR project, which was triggered by the need to replace the power that was lost due to several coal-fired generation facilities being abandoned in the Midwest. So as we expand our systems to meet this new load, we'll also look for opportunities to electrify our compression fleet where it makes sense to do so and without jeopardizing reliability. So as I mentioned on our recent earnings call, about 25% of our existing compressor fleet is made up of less efficient, slow-speed units that, in some cases, range between 50 and 70 years old. It is these units that are prime candidates to be replaced, and doing so would equate to a power load of about 875 megawatts. In order to meet our share of our company's GHG reductions, we'll need to electrify 1 to 2 stations per year for the balance of the decade, and doing so will require a potential capital investment of $1.5 billion to $2 billion over that time frame. And of course, as we do this, we'll be looking for Corey's team to help reduce the Scope 2 emissions associated with these electric stations. Now we'll also continue to carefully pursue projects more closely linked to energy transition. Renewable natural gas remains a focus point as we look to grow our footprint from 11 RNG interconnects and 4 Bcf of gas today to 40 RNG interconnects and more than 30 Bcf of gas by the end of 2025. To do so, we'll look to engage in strategic partnerships with various entities and potentially deploy over $200 million in capital. Longer term, there likely will be new opportunities around carbon capture use and storage and hydrogen. And in 2022, I'd like to see us lay the foundation for, if not implement a pilot program around hydrogen blending. And as Corey will discuss during his presentation, to continue to advance our recently announced opportunities with Nikola and Hyzon around hydrogen hubs to support trucking and hydrogen and fuel cell batteries. We will continue to keep a pulse on these new technologies. We're going to look to create key strategic partnerships, and we will invest in these technologies when they can be deployed safely, and generate a return that successfully competes for the capital against the other growth opportunities that we have. Now I've previously shared with you the growth that we've experienced from 2017 through 2020. And going forward, our plan, which is based on strong fundamentals, a solid strategic vision and consistent execution shows a compounded average growth rate of 5% through 2026 based on our current sanctioned growth with further upside to come as we compete for and land additional projects. Now do note that I've converted the amounts on this slide and this slide only to Canadian dollars. So to close out the discussion around our U.S. gas business, let's take a look at what lies ahead. Our focus points for 2022 are relatively straightforward, maintain our strong safety focus with top decile metrics, place $2 billion of growth in modernization and maintenance capital projects in service on time and on budget, secure $1 billion of new growth projects at a 5 to 7x build multiple and do so by electrifying our fleet and implementing other carbon-reducing projects into our portfolio. We'll file rate cases to ensure rate certainty through 2026 for the ANR and the Great Lakes pipelines, and we'll continue to progress our knowledge and investment opportunities around innovation, sustainability, by increasing our RNG footprint and initiating a hydrogen blending pilot. And of course, we'll do all this while developing and attracting a diverse workforce and maintaining our financial discipline. Doing these things, I believe, will set us up for success during our journey towards a cleaner and more secure and more prosperous energy future, which is one of natural gas and renewables. So in the few minutes I have left, I'd like to shift our focus over to TC Energia, our Mexico natural gas pipeline business. Since we first arrived in the country almost 30 years ago, our Mexico business has grown while maintaining a low-risk take-or-pay model, backed by long-term U.S. dollar-denominated contracts with Mexico's state utility, the CFE. Our 5 operating pipelines now transport about 25% of the natural gas consumed in the country, providing a critical link between U.S. gas supplies and key demand markets across Mexico. Furthermore, our Sur de Texas pipeline, which transports about 15% of the imports into Mexico supports growing demand, both in the industrial heartland and across Southeast Mexico. Now this access to a cleaner burning energy source continues to enable Mexico's transformation to thrive as the company shifts from fuel oil to natural gas. Perhaps even more so than in the U.S., our business in Mexico is reinforced by strong fundamentals, which point to the need for additional midstream infrastructure. We continue to play an important role in the development of this infrastructure in Mexico as emphasized by the start of our phased in commissioning of our Villa de Reyes project at the end of this month. We're working to have VdR fully in service by mid-2022, provided we can continue to make progress in procuring access to the final sections of land. After signing a memorandum of understanding with the CFE earlier this year, we continue to work in parallel with the state utility to solve our outstanding arbitration proceeding, to assess reroute alternatives, to complete our Tuxpan-Tula project and to enhance the commercial and operational competitiveness of our backbone pipeline system across Central Mexico. We believe that there is a wealth of untapped demand in Mexico that will be unlocked over the next decade. We expect economic growth and increased connectivity to new regions to trigger opportunities to expand our existing systems as well as to build, own and operate additional infrastructure that could amount to an opportunity of $5 billion to $6 billion by 2025. So in the following slides, I'll explain why our business model is well equipped to navigate the Mexican business and political environment while maintaining our discipline and our risk preferences. So with respect to 2021, we had a breakthrough in the arbitration discussions related to our Villa de Reyes and Tula projects with CFE. On July 30, we executed a memorandum of understanding to create a strategic alliance with CFE that encompasses several value propositions. Most importantly, the MOU sets forth a set of principles to resolve the outstanding arbitration proceedings. The key principles of the MOU are full recognition and recovery on all invested capital in the Villa de Reyes and Tula projects, as those projects are placed in service, the consolidation of all TGNH contracts under a single rate agreement with a levelized toll, an alternate right-of-way in joint development agreement to complete the final section of the Tula project and the potential to construct a new offshore pipeline to deliver desperately needed natural gas for power generation to Southeast Mexico. Now these principles are the stepping stones for a strategic alliance with CFE under which they would take a more active role in helping address right-of-way and permitting issues related to our Tula pipeline, in particular. Our respective teams continue to work diligently towards the execution of definitive agreements that will underpin this alliance. We have presented the CFE with a win-win proposition, and the ball is in their court. We are currently awaiting their response, which is expected in mid-December. At the same time, we've been negotiating the arbitration settlement. Our project team has been busy advancing the construction on Villa de Reyes. The northern section is preparing for the final steps of completing purge and load in the coming weeks. The lateral is tracking towards a Q1 '22 in-service date, while the South segment, which is the most challenging to complete due to the ongoing negotiations with certain communities, remains scheduled for Q2 of 2022. Now we take a comprehensive long-term view on Mexico's macroeconomic and energy fundamentals to guide our decisions for our business. Now this entails being honest about the risks associated with investing in the country, but also understanding them in the specific context of our Mexico assets. Mexico is a diverse and growing North American economy. In fact, it's the 15th largest economy in the world, and natural gas demand across the country is expected to increase 65% from 8 Bcf a day to 12 Bcf a day by the end of the decade, driven primarily by the need for more natural gas-fired power generation. CFE, for example, has announced plans to build 10 new combined cycle plants by 2024, which will add over 6 gigawatts of new installed capacity. Gas-fired generation is already the predominant source of electricity in Mexico, providing over 55% of the country's total generation, and is expected to maintain that share through 2050. Given Mexico's limited production base, much of their needs will continue to be sourced from the U.S. as imports are projected to grow by nearly 50% to 9 Bcf by the end of the decade. Though much has been said on Mexico's geopolitical risk, policies that are meant to strengthen its state-owned energy companies do not have the same impact to our business as they may have for others. We attribute this to our model being symbiotic with CFE's priorities in that we're not competing against them. But instead, we are building out the critical energy infrastructure that they so desperately need. And while other risks such as permitting and land access are very real, we believe them to be manageable, and ultimately, not that different in magnitude than the types of risks based in our other geographies. So these solid fundamentals, our relationship with CFE, which we intend to build upon with this strategic alliance are what distinguishes us from others and why we believe we can successfully navigate this landscape. So on the back of these solid economic fundamentals, in addition to our strategic alliance with CFE, we're poised to secure new growth while sticking to our low-risk business model. As demand across our backbone systems in the heart of Mexico continues to emerge, future in-quarter expansions will be driven by building new laterals and interconnects to industrial and commercial end users by expanding our existing pipelines to meet demand and by debottlenecking existing infrastructure. Combined, these 3 sets of opportunities could generate $1 billion to $2 billion of new capital investments by the end of 2025. The larger opportunity, however, lies in the potential to build a new offshore pipeline to currently undersupplied regions of Mexico, such as the Yucatan, which is facing growing demand for gas and for which Mexico's President has expressed a desire for a new pipeline to be built. CFE announced this summer, this opportunity is a real near-term potential that could be a $4 billion-plus capital investment in and of itself and would be one that we would likely consider project financing should it reach FID. Now longer term, there are several West Coast LNG export projects within service dates largely targeted for the second half of the decade. So to summarize, we see more than ample long-term growth opportunities amounting to potentially $5 billion to $6 billion that will advance social and economic development and improve environmental quality while providing attractive returns for our shareholders. So in the past, our Mexico business has supported real growth, more than doubling its EBITDA between 2015 and 2021. As you can see, the growth opportunities in Mexico have the potential to deliver transformational growth yet again and do note that the values on this slide have also been converted from U.S. to Canadian dollars. With respect to our base business, for purposes here in -- which for purposes herein, includes both our Villa de Reyes and Tuxpan-Tula projects as they're expected to be resolved either through settlement or arbitration, we have line of sight to grow at a compounded average growth rate of 8%. In addition to that, as we leverage our strategic alliance with CFE and negotiate towards resolution on the energy infrastructure that they and others need across these multiple growth platforms that I previously discussed, we could see a near tripling of our EBITDA in Mexico, should we reach FID on the new offshore pipeline, in particular. So as we look towards the next steps of this journey, we expect 2022 to potentially be a landmark year for our Mexico business with a handful of straightforward priorities to address. These include ensuring the safe, reliable operations of our assets, executing definitive agreements related to our strategic alliance with CFE that will settle the outstanding arbitration in a mutually beneficial manner, placing our Villa de Reyes project in service and generating cash flow and finalizing a reroute for our Tuxpan-Tula project and ultimately commencing construction, continuing to build meaningful relationships with CFE and other key federal state and local stakeholders to further establish our presence and our brand across the communities that we serve. And lastly, expanding our footprint in a manner consistent with our risk preferences and our financial discipline by securing $3 billion to $5 billion of new growth projects. So with that, I'll pause and invite David and Tracy to join me for the Q&A.

Well, thanks, Tracy, Stan, for those comments on everything that's going on in the Natural Gas Pipelines business. It does look like we have a number of questions from the investment community. So I think I'll turn to those. And again, if you do have any other questions, please feel free to submit via the website. But the first question is for you, Tracy, and it comes from Jeremy Tonet at JPMorgan. He's wondering whether or not you could provide an update on your discussions with LNG Canada and how cost overruns would be dealt with between you and our partners?

Jeremy, what I can tell you is that we are completely aligned with LNG Canada, the importance that the pipeline construction continues without interruption. And that's happening. We're more than 50% complete. We're making progress each day as we continue to construct. I'll also acknowledge that we have a shared interest with LNG Canada making sure that this project is as competitive as possible. We are in discussions with them on how we handle the impacts to cost and schedule as we go forward. Now it's important to note that our agreement between us, our contract provides for mechanisms for these changes in cost to flow through to tolls within certain parameters. And as long as those costs are prudently incurred. So we're in discussions now, whether we reach alignment on those while we are in construction or reach alignment after we're in service, we're pretty confident that the costs that we're incurring are -- have been prudently incurred. Now I would also -- I would also want you to know that we're working very collaboratively right now with LNG Canada on progressing this pipeline so that comes into service in a time line that works with the facility that they're building in Kitimat.

Thanks, Tracy. And Jeremy actually had a follow-up, Tracy. I think it's probably appropriate we touch on now. He's wondering whether or not the Western Canadian flooding that's going on currently has impacted our asset base. And to the extent that we are experiencing any outages, when do you expect to resume normal service?

Yes, Jeremy, it's pretty alarming to watch what's happening out there, particularly in Southern British Columbia. It has had no impact so far to our operations. We are experiencing some pretty unusual and wet weather on the construction sites of coastal gas, and it hasn't stopped us yet, but it is having an impact on construction. I would say we've reached out, I mean, to the government of British Columbia, to a number of other organizations to see if there's any way that we can help. And right now, I think the right way to do that. And what we've done is made some financial contributions to those organizations on the front line who are trying to help in dealing with some of the impact of this and pretty proud to be part of an organization that will step in, in that way.

Okay. Thanks, Tracy. Next question is from Robert Catellier at CIBC. Maybe Stan, I'll get you to start with this, and then Tracy, feel free to add on. But Rob is wondering how support for natural gas as a bridge fuel, how that's changing and what it might mean for future capital allocation?

Well, David, I would hope that there's a recognition that if natural gas is indeed a bridge fuel. It is a very, very long bridge that we're going to be riding on for a very long time, and I say that in the context of going back to the fundamentals, again, 22% growth in the U.S. between now and the end of the decade. There's 1 billion people around the world today that don't have access to a reliable energy source. There's going to be 2 billion more people in the world over the next several decades, all of them are going to want to have some sort of energy. And I think it gets back to my comments earlier that natural gas is going to continue to play a foundational role, not just in baseload, but we need more of all forms of energy in this country and in this world if we're going to continue to live the lives that we're used to. And natural gas is also going to have a unique role with respect to reliability. For those times like we're seeing this summer, this winter when wind power in Europe perhaps is reduced. Natural gas can step in there, instantaneously dispatch energy and do it for very long periods of time. As a matter of fact, the 4 trillion cubic feet of storage we have in the U.S. today is probably the best battery that there is because you can turn it on and you can leave it flowing for many, many weeks, not just many, many hours.

Well said. Let me just add to that. I think that from a capital allocation perspective, most of the capital that we've seen allocated to the gas system has, in one way or another, been in support of this transition of this bridge. So whether it's on the LNG going over to Asia to offset coal, whether it's the Alberta Energy Regulator that's forecasting a 70% increase in gas on -- to reduce the coal consumption in the Province, whether it's allocation to reduce -- to electrify and reduce and/or to reduce the emissions of our current network. I mean, these are all ways to make sure that gas plays the role that we all believe it will as we look at transition for, as Stan said, it's a very long period of time.

Okay. Thanks, Tracy. Next question comes from Robert Kwan at RBC. Stan, this one's for you. He -- during your prepared remarks, you mentioned that you could generate $300 million more in revenue if all capacity was sold at maximum rates. I was wondering how much of the capacity is rolling over. Without renewal rights in the next 5 years, it could be contracted at those rates? And how much of this is, if any, is included in the EBITDA through 2026?

I'll start with the second half of that question first. With respect to how much is included in our EBITDA forecast through 2026, the answer is 0. Again, this is all upside optionality that's embedded in our assets that we expect to see unlocked. And again, you go back to the fundamentals and you look at what's going on this fall, intermittency issues with respect to renewables in Europe. LNG prices get to be $55. All that is creating more volatility, that higher volatility is going to put stress or widen out basis differentials, and those wider basis differentials that was going to drive the opportunity for us to realize all our portion of this $300 million going forward. With respect to the first part of the question, I don't have details with respect to our analysis as to what we assume with respect to rollovers, but suffice it to say that, that our team does a very thorough analysis each year. We do expect to see higher values coming at every dekatherm of capacity that we sell going forward, and that is embedded in our forecast.

Great. Okay. Thanks, Stan. Turning to our Mexico business, Stan. Alex at Wolfe Research, is indicating that he's seen some coverage around CFE considering an extension of Sur de Texas down to the Yucatan. Would TC Energy considered being part of that?

Yes, Alex. With respect to my comments about the potential for us to build or partake in a $4 billion-plus pipeline expansion that is essentially what I'm referring to. There is a huge need to get more gas down to the Yucatan in particular, to fuel some of these power plants that the CFE is building. So we've been in discussions with CFE for quite some time now. They're on an accelerated schedule with respect to meeting an in-service date for the mid-part of 2024. And if we're going to get there, we're going to have to get things wrapped up in relatively short order. So yes, that's something that we are intriguely interested in.

Okay. And maybe staying with Mexico, Stan, Robert Kwan, again from RBC, has got a question saying, historically, development in Mexico was attractive to you given the counterparty and especially the ability to construct as winning the bid, pave the way to construction in the -- to the extent that it included permits and right of way. With the incremental issues you've had to deal with, with regards to right of way as well as restructuring contracts with the CFE, how do you approach deploying more capital in the country if returns haven't increased?

Yes, great question, Robert. And I guess, a couple of things to impact there. First of all, I don't see us making any significant investments in Mexico until or unless we mutually beneficially resolve the outstanding arbitration proceedings. So that's a bit of a high watermark for us. The second part then becomes to how do you address the risks that we face. And again, we face risks in all the geographies that we operate. Some of them are unique to a specific country. Some of them are more consistent across them. So the discussions that we're having with CFE, for example, is going to be who's going to wear the permitting risk? For example, we don't have imminent domain rights in Mexico like we have in the United States. But there are certain things that CFE could do and may be obligated to do an agreement going forward, for example, to secure the right away in the land access going forward. And then the last part of your question is it's all about risk reward and all things equal, it may be a little bit more risky to do business in Mexico than in Canada, for example, and that's going to require us to have a higher return built into the tools that we would charge.

Thanks, Stan. Just a quick reminder. I do have one other question here. But if you do have a question, feel free to submit. Last question at this point comes from Michael Lapides at Goldman Sachs. Turning back to the U.S. pipeline business Stan and specifically the East Coast indicates that the Eastern states continue to ramp up expectations for new offshore wind. And north of D.C., there's very limited coal-fired generation. How do you think -- how do you think about this? And will it have an impact on your gas pipeline assets in the region, most specifically between D.C. and Maine?

Once we get into New England, we really don't have any significant infrastructure other than our PNGTS system, and that's been a bit of a goldmine for us lately with the expansions we had on it. But I would go back to the notion that it's not an either-or proposition. Our future really is one of natural gas and renewables. And I think we're seeing that natural gas has a key role to play, particularly with respect to this reliability aspect, making sure that we have an instantaneous long-term reliable backup for times when renewables may not be performing to the full potential.

That's great. Great, well, it looks like we've covered all of your questions at this point. Again, to the extent you have any following this meeting, we'd be happy to follow up. But with that, this concludes our session on natural gas pipelines. I will now take a brief break and return at 9:35 Mountain or 11:35 Eastern Time. [Presentation] [Break]

Good morning, everyone. My name is Bevin Wirzba, and I'm excited to talk to you about the continued strength of our liquids business, our outlook for 2022 and my confidence in growth in earnings over the next 5 years. We're in a very different place today than we were 1 year ago, and with the uncertainty of Keystone XL behind us, we have pivoted our strategy and have a clear line of sight to the future. We can grow earnings through low capital, in-corridor projects that leverage our existing asset base to increase competitive delivery points for our customers. What hasn't changed, though, is our focus on safety and reliability. Our operational performance this last year was excellent, and we have made great progress in optimizing our system. We've made significant advancements in the integrity and the reliability of our systems, and that will allow us to competitively increase our annual throughput. Our assets are irreplaceable and strategically positioned with opportunities for bolt-on growth. They are also underpinned by strong fundamentals and long-term take-or-pay contracts with high-quality customer counterparties. During the next few minutes, I'm going to touch on 3 key themes that give us confidence. First, the fundamentals. The demand for our systems is enduring. We operate critical infrastructure that supports the energy mix for the foreseeable future. Second, we can operate sustainably. We are progressing our plan to source 100% renewable power for our system, leading our emission reduction strategy for TC Energy. And then finally, we're going to leverage our footprint. We have a tremendous opportunity set for capital-light growth, providing our customers competitive access to critical markets. So let's begin with an overview of our liquid system. As I mentioned, our liquid system is strategic and unique with a direct path to the Gulf Coast. Our priority is to operate our assets safely, reliably and competitively. Looking at our assets, and starting from the North, we have our intra-Alberta systems. These systems are 100% contracted with guaranteed returns, supported by high-quality customers. Our base Keystone system as it exits the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. That capacity is highly contracted with long-term commercial structures with largely investment-grade counterparties. On the southern part of our system, we have significant latent capacity as we already capitalized the Gulf Coast system, providing great optionality for growth. As examples, this year, we sanctioned 2 projects, one with Motiva at Port Neches and the other at our Houston Tank Terminal. Both will expand the delivery points for our customers. We are executing our strategy with an acute focus on capital discipline and efficiency. So let's go through 2021's accomplishments. We made significant progress this past year. We improved on our operational performance, and we advanced the integrity and reliability of our system. We inspected 100% of Keystone system with next-generation tools using industry-leading inspection technology, giving us and our regulators high confidence in the integrity of our system. We pivoted our commercial strategy to a capital-light opportunity set that enhances the Gulf Coast system, focusing on delivery and terminaling options for our customers. An example of this is the Port Neches Link system project, which is a joint venture with Motiva Enterprises to construct a $150 million pipeline system to connect Keystone to Motiva's terminal, which supplies over 600,000 barrels a day to their Port Arthur refinery. This past year, we also monetized the remaining investment in our Northern Courier pipeline. We are pleased that this transaction expanded economic opportunities for 8 indigenous communities through the equity sale. And then finally, we supported the successful RFP process for sourcing renewable power for our U.S. assets, and we are accelerating towards a 99% reduction in our Scope 2 emissions by 2025. Let's talk about the demand for our systems. So as I mentioned, we are directly connected to the strongest refining markets in North America. North America holds 20% of the world's refining capacity and as a key product supplier. The demand we serve is unique. We deliver to some of the most complex refineries in the world, which have a sustained demand for Canadian supply through 2050. Looking at the pie chart on the slide, you can see that PADD III and PADD II are the markets we serve, which represent almost 70% of North America's refining capacity. This provides market stability for Keystone's long-term outlook. Both PADD III and PADD II benefit from low-cost domestic and Canadian crude oil supply. And have better competitive margins compared to other regions globally. Including all the energy transition scenarios that we look at, PADD III refining demand remains stable through 2050. Looking at the utilization graph on the bottom right, you can see that refinery utilization is an important measure of economic efficiency of the refinery complex and is a key indicator of the expected transportation demand. North American refinery utilization will average well above 90% from 2022 through to 2030. And U.S. refiners benefit from processing Canadian barrels that are typically discounted from global prices. This lower cost of crude oil helps to improve refinery margins and supports their competitiveness in the global market. This market configuration provides the Keystone system with stability through a long-term supply matching refining demand. Let's shift now to the supply. So our systems support the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, and it continues to be a world-class competitive supply basin that is leading in sustainability. Our assets are favorably located in proximity to production regions that are expected to remain stable through 2050. In Canada, production decline rates are among the lowest in the world, producing close to 5 million barrels a day compared to the tight oil production that has steep natural decline rates in other basins, and a high requirement for maintenance capital. Canadian supply is anticipated to grow by nearly 1 million barrels per day by 2030. Traditional alternate sources of supply from Venezuela and Mexico are expected to decline, leaving a gap for Canadian barrels to meet the demand. The oil price environment driven by capital discipline is now expected to support moderate annual U.S. oil production growth until 2030. North American producers have been able to strengthen their balance sheets in the last few years through efficiencies, optimizations and controlled spending. Their improved balance sheets make them more resilient, which will enable production growth and will represent future opportunities for our Marketlink asset on our Gulf Coast system. Let's focus now on ESG, where we have a strong focus in each of the environmental, social and governance areas. On the environment, we're well down the path on a strategy for emissions reduction on our base system, and we will be a leader in operating a world-class net-zero pipeline, benefiting both TC Energy and our customers. We're also advancing on our partnership to develop a world-class carbon transportation and sequestration solution that will serve as a backbone for Alberta's emerging carbon capture, utilization and storage industry. We see CCUS and the energy transition as a collaboration across the industry. And we could do that jointly by utilizing existing infrastructure and corridors to meet the needs of our customers and grow our system with a capital-light approach. And while we advance on reducing the emissions intensity of our operations, we'll also capture growth opportunities that meet the energy needs of the future by developing meaningful relationships with our stakeholders, and indigenous communities. Partnerships with indigenous communities like the Northern Courier Pipeline divestment will co-create value and further enable participation in energy infrastructure for those partners. We've also worked hand-in-hand with our regulators to ensure we're operating at a best-in-class level in both Canada and the U.S. Finally, developing our people and building the internal capability is critical to executing our business. We're focused on building an inclusive and diverse workforce as we look for ways to develop various training and hiring opportunities for our near-term developments. So on this slide, you can see our existing footprint. As I've said, we see a significant opportunity set for in-corridor growth. The market fundamentals for long-haul volumes continues to be strongly supported. And so our focus is on utilizing our Marketlink asset, which has a prebuild -- which was a prebuild for long-haul volumes. We have pivoted our strategy and are open for new business opportunities. Utilizing joint offerings and partnerships with peer companies, we believe we can provide competitive capacity to access key markets. We are also pursuing opportunities with our terminals and are beginning the operational planning to increase the flow rate on our existing system with our commitments from our open season in 2019, which will allow us to gradually increase capacity in the first half of 2022. This next slide outlines we contribute a stable and reliable source of revenue to -- for the company and for our shareholders and a solid earnings growth outlook. Looking forward from 2022, we see those stable returns complemented with additional growth upwards of 4% growth CAGR over the next number of years from long-term embedded growth from our existing footprint by enhancing connectivity and leveraging available capacity on our Gulf Coast system. The market understands that there is ample capacity between Cushing and the U.S. Gulf Coast. Therefore, we have to differentiate our business by the following offering: first, we're going to focus on market-based tools that are more dynamic and market responsive than we have historically; second, we're going to leverage our top-tier reputation as protecting our customers' product quality; and finally, we're going to continue to actively manage our cost to be the most competitive offering in the market. We'll also utilize our marketing affiliate to continue to complement our broader offerings to further optimize our latent capacity. So on this slide, you'll see our scorecard that will be measured against for 2022. I will speak to 3 specifically. First, we will continue to deliver the energy North Americans rely on every day safely and reliably. We continue to drive innovation through new technologies and data to advance competitiveness and reduce operational risk associated with pipeline operations. Second, as I mentioned, we've pivoted our strategy for capital-light growth to leverage that latent capacity on our Gulf Coast system. Long-term market fundamentals have not changed, and we're focused on supporting our customers by providing cost-effective market access, including leveraging our existing system to expand access to the strongest refining markets in North America. We started construction this year on our Port Neches Link System. We are on schedule and on budget as planned, and we will place that asset in service in the second half of 2022. And then finally, we will deliver on our sustainability and ESG commitments. We will focus on current assets that can underpin emission reduction to support our corporate emissions reduction targets. We are positioned to achieve net zero by 2030 and targeting the elimination of 99% of our Scope 2 emissions by 2025. So this is an exciting year ahead of us, and I look forward to your questions with respect to the liquids business. Thank you for your time.

Thanks for those comments, Bevin. A couple of questions coming in from the investment community. The first one is from Matt Taylor at TPH. He's wondering if you could elaborate on your outlook for Marketlink over the next 5 years? And then, maybe a little bit more specifically, what are you assuming for recontracting over that period, including your outlook for 2026?

Thank you, David. The Marketlink asset was created on the back of the Gulf Coast system as part of our prebuild for the Keystone XL project. And we had precontracted the volumes on our Gulf Coast system to manage the transition for the long-haul volumes. So since that, we've pivoted away from the Keystone XL project. We have uncontracted volumes as suggested by the question that we're now optimizing through our marketing affiliate, as we're pivoting to reseek new contracting opportunities over the next number of years. What we have done in terms of -- what we have seen in this last year is that the differential between Cushing and the Gulf Coast that our Marketlink asset serves had seen significant compression as a result of the pandemic and lower demand for refined products in the Gulf Coast. So we've been optimizing the utilization of that system by flowing increased volumes, albeit at lower margins to try to preserve the earnings that we can generate off of that system. We're just starting now to see a recovery in those margins as we see recovery from the pandemic and some of the demand increasing on the Gulf Coast. So we anticipate that over the next number of years, we'll see opportunities to not only contract directly our Marketlink asset, but as I mentioned in the presentation, find joint opportunities to provide that service, utilizing other lines and other networks to deliver those volumes not only to Cushing, but also to the Gulf Coast.

Okay. Great. Thanks, Bevin. Next question is from Ben Pham at BMO Capital Markets. Ben is asking whether or not you've got any initiatives that you might be working on to repurpose portions of your liquids pipeline network over the near or longer term? If so, how does that impact your pace and timing of your electrification goals?

Great. Well, how we deliver value for our customers is by providing them competitive access to the markets that they want to deliver to. And so when we look at our systems and then particularly, not just our pipeline systems, but our terminaling assets, we look for areas where we can provide different interconnection points and preserve the product quality for our customers. So we're right now reviewing broadly all of our systems, including our intra-Alberta assets, the Grand Rapids system, as are there ways to provide different competitive offerings for our customers? And we're well -- we have some of those initiatives well in hand. And hopefully, as those mature, we'll be able to highlight those for the marketplace. As Corey will discuss in the presentation to come, we see the electrification of our U.S. Keystone assets. That process is going very well, and we believe that not only will it allow us to reduce our emissions, it will provide a much more competitive cost structure for our customers, which is one of -- which is just as important to us as a liquids business.

Okay. Switching gears a little bit here. A number of investors are asking about the Alberta Carbon Grid, more specifically wondering about the major milestones and time lines for advancing the project. And to the extent that we reach FID, what sort of capital investment might be required?

Right. The Alberta Carbon Grid Project is really exciting for not only TC, but I believe for the industry and for Western Canada. When we think about the carbon grid project, we think of it as an industry solution. So it's not just a TC opportunity, but it's an opportunity for ourselves as well as Pembina, our partner, and likely others to join us. We're looking at the emissions, not only from the energy industry that are occurring in Western Canada, but also other point sources. And so as we study this opportunity, we're trying to find the most competitive solution for industry, which will be a collective approach. And that early study, that's going to take us some time. Right now, we're in the process working with the government of Alberta, who is leading a process on the sequestration rights. That's going to -- that process will unfold in 2022. And as part of that, we're investing right now in the engineering and scoping work to understand how we can better utilize some of our existing systems to support the industry. And in parallel, developing the customer relationships broadly across Western Canada to identify areas where we can be a solution for the emissions that are coming from certain point sources.

Okay. And one more question here, Bevin. Reverting back, I think, largely to the Marketlink system. Michael Lapides at Goldman Sachs, is wondering if you could talk about tariffs on existing pipelines that go from the Mid-Continent to the Gulf Coast? How do you think about the downside risk for tariffs? And more specifically, does the fact that you're moving WCSB heavy help offset any risk over the mid and longer term?

Great. Well, a lot to that question, so I'll start first with how we -- how our tariffs are set in the Gulf Coast system. So in 2020, we applied for market-based rates for the Marketlink system. Those market-based rates are -- they're flexible and they are reflective of the current market conditions and the differentials between our input points in Cushing all the way through to the Gulf Coast. So we set those tariffs to be competitive and to attract barrels to move on our systems. And so we've seen them go as low as just hovering above variable tolls above the cost to run our system. But as I mentioned, we utilize our marketing affiliate to then move many more barrels at those lower margins to try to increase and improve our revenue profile on that asset. We've started to see a recovery in the Marketlink volumes and also the tariffs that we're able to charge. And in particular, to your question around heavy barrels, light barrels and sweet barrels, they do trade differently than heavy barrels. And so we offer a very unique system in that we can ship both to key refining markets and we can attract a higher value for moving those heavy barrels. But our focus is to move them as cleanly as possible into those delivery points, because the refineries create a really solid Canadian heavy barrel that is clean in terms of its product quality coming through our systems.

Great. Thanks for that insight, Bevin. Last question is from Robert Kwan at RBC Capital Markets. Again, this may be more speaking to the long-haul barrels on Keystone. So more specifically, Robert's asking could you talk about incremental capacity expansions of Keystone to export more volumes from the WCSB and what the timing might look like particularly given the apparent demand for contracted capacity? I think in some respects, Bevin, he is probably -- Robert is probably alluding to the open season you held a couple of years ago.

Well, our first priority is to move the barrels that we have contracted safely and reliably. And this past year, we've increased our operational performance significantly and that means reducing -- providing more availability to the system by reducing unplanned downtime. So we've addressed that. That has allowed us to move. In this past month, we've been at record volumes out of Western Canada down the system. So creating that -- creating opportunity to deliver more for our shippers comes from really managing the operations on our system, first and foremost. Secondly, with the integrity work that we've done over the past 2 years and that operational improvements, we're now beginning the planning to bring on those new barrels from the open season, and we expect those to come on in the first half of 2022, but that will be a gradual progression throughout the year and into the following year as we ensure that we can continue to deliver those barrels. Other opportunities over the long period -- over the long haul, those are through, again, further optimization of our system downstream of Western -- downstream of our exit out of ex Hardisty. And as we identify those opportunities, we'll bring them forward to our customers, which appears to be, as you say, in very high demand.

Great. Well, thanks, Bevin. That concludes our session on Liquids Pipelines. Corey Hessen will join us next to provide you with an overview of our Power and Storage business.

Thanks, David. Good morning, everyone. I appreciate you hanging in and joining with me here today to talk about our Power and Storage business. I want to start today to thank all of the folks that make up the Power and Storage team. The accomplishments that we're going to discuss here today have been achieved because of the hard work of our dedicated professionals in ops, engineering, development, HR comms and commercial marketing. To my teammates, I say, thank you. So with that, let's get started. Last year, when we were together, I told you that I had seen many changes in the power sector over my career and that I believe that electrification and the energy transition were upon us. And I'm pleased to share with you today that this journey has begun for us here at TC Energy, electrifying our assets, reducing emissions, developing renewable energy and helping customers do the same. As part of my presentation today, I will update you on 4 things: first, our high-quality, high-performing assets; second, the projects under development within our existing footprint; third, new growth opportunities that are underway; and I'll also reinforce our strategic pillars that I described to you last year at Investor Day and throughout the year during our investor calls. In 2020, power and storage commitments were outlined as you see here on the left-hand side of this slide. Throughout the year, we have advanced each of these initiatives and have made significant strides towards our strategic objectives. First, low-carbon electricity for our assets. Earlier in the year, we began an RFI process to decarbonize the U.S. footprint of the Keystone pipeline, as Bevin described earlier. We gathered submissions from renewable developers for wind, solar and storage projects. And we are now finalizing power purchase agreements to procure the renewable energy. The second commitment we made or initiative that we had laid out was to develop a portfolio of renewable and storage assets. And this year, we were able to add 400 megawatts of renewable power in Alberta that align with our risk and return preferences. We developed first of its kind 24/7 carbon-free power product. This solution for our Alberta industrial customers is created with wind plus solar plus pumped hydro that provides emission-free round-the-clock power for our customers. Third, we said we would continue progressing our efforts at Bruce Power. We have continued to invest in both life extension and increased generation output at Bruce. And during 2021, we have progressed the major component replacement program or MCR and launched a new initiative called Project 2030. Next, we indicated that we would continue to make investments and improve our -- and move ahead our pump storage and other firming products development. Our Ontario pump storage project demonstrates the value firming resources have for balancing an electric grid with significant renewable resources. This project achieved 2 important milestones in 2021. First, we gained approval from the Department of Defense; and also, number two, advancing to Gate 2 of Ontario IESO's unsolicited proposal process. And last, we indicated we would be exploring new investment opportunities across our North American footprint. Recently, we have finalized joint development agreements with Irving Oil, Nikola Corporation and Hyzon Motors to systematically identify and develop hydrogen applications. Both Nikola and hydrogen (sic) [ Hyzon ] are fuel cell electric vehicle manufacturers that serve complementary segments of the transportation market and have unique strategies for creating hydrogen hub networks. Our strategy is based on 3 very distinct pillars. First, we have identified that -- as Stan and Bevin said, we will leverage our internal demand. Our liquids assets are a large consumer of electricity today and our natural gas pipelines will be growing consumers of electricity as we continually electrify compression over the coming decade. Second, we can successfully aggregate in-corridor opportunities because of our knowledge, existing relationships with customers and communities as well as our core internal capabilities across the enterprise. And third, we will enable the energy transition by becoming the premier resource for renewable energy in North America. Our superior results for 2021 were driven by staying aligned with these 3 pillars. The business unit achieved solid financial results delivered through safe, reliable and efficient operations. Our earnings are stable and predictable. Year-to-date EBITDA has come in at above planned levels. Additionally, we maintained a high level of availability of our Alberta power assets at over 94% year-to-date. During peak pricing, our assets were well positioned to take advantage of the volatility of the Alberta power markets, which drove better 2021 financial results. 92% of our existing portfolio of low-cost baseload energy is underpinned by long-term contracts. And in addition, about 75% of our power generation capacity is completely emission-free, which is a nice transition to talking about how we're decarbonizing our assets. We are leveraging the size and scale of our energy network to be the most trusted and reliable source of carbon-free energy for North American industrial customers. Customers that are other business units that have been described here earlier have been privileged to serve for many decades. This portfolio of assets will create cost competitive renewable energy for our industrial customers. By powering the U.S. portion of the Keystone pipeline with renewable energy, we will reduce our emissions profile by more than 1 million tonnes of CO2 annually, which is a significant first step in our decarbonization journey here at TC Energy. Specifically, regarding our decarbonization at the Keystone pipeline, we received 137 bids during the RFI process. We have entered into exclusivity agreements with 9 projects, and we expect to finalize virtual power purchase agreements in the next 60 days. We are strategically evaluating equity participation in each project and we'll negotiate equity positions in projects which align with our key risk preferences and our strategic goals. In addition, we are actively pursuing opportunities for our indigenous partners to place equity in our renewable projects as they have told us that equity participation in wind, solar and battery storage is well aligned with their values and goals. Currently, we are negotiating agreements for 620 megawatts of wind, 300 megawatts of solar and 100 megawatts of energy storage to meet the renewable energy needs of Keystone's U.S. footprint. In addition to the Keystone load, we have signed 5 letters of intent with customers for over 1 gigawatt of additional renewable energy. Moving on, this is one of the most exciting things I think we've done in 2021, which we have -- which is that we have developed an innovative, first of its kind, 24/7 renewable energy project, and we launched it in late summer and it is completely subscribed at this point in time. Unlike as generated renewable energy PPAs, TC Energy's product offers energy price certainty and emissions-free round-the-clock power. The portfolio consists of 20 megawatts of East Strathmore Solar, 74 megawatts of Claresholm Solar and 300 megawatts of wind from our Sharp Hills project. And for firming capacity, TC Energy will enable the development, construction and operation of 75 megawatts of pumped hydro storage at Canyon Creek. Combined, these assets total approximately 400 megawatts of capacity that will result in a resilient and stable generation profile. Additionally, based on the success to date of this product offering in Alberta, we are actively evaluating similar projects and similar portfolios close to industrial demand centers in the U.S. and in Canada. Now switching gears to Bruce Power, our largest single piece of our portfolio here in Power and Storage. Bruce Power is a 6,400-megawatt nuclear plant located in Ontario. It generates 30% of the electricity used by the province. TC Energy has invested $2 billion into Bruce Power since 2015 with an additional $7 billion planned over the life of the asset. Power sales for Bruce are contracted with the Ontario ISO through 2064, and returns on each tranche of the MCR and Project 2030 capital are in the low double digits. These characteristics ensure that TC Energy's continuing investment in Bruce Power is well aligned with our risk preferences for high-quality assets with top-tier counterparties and long-term contracts. The major component program work continues. It continues to progress on time and on budget, and we believe that this program is a valuable long-term investment for TC Energy. And something new this year for TC for -- at Bruce Power is Project 2030, which is focused on increasing site output by over 300 megawatts through secondary side or nonnuclear improvements. Project 2030 upgrades will be achieved through continued asset optimization, innovations and leveraging new technology, which could include integration with storage and other forms of energy at the facility. The ultimate goal of Project 2030 is to increase output to 7,000 megawatts by 2030, contributing to Ontario's clean energy needs and maximizing the value of Bruce Power's assets. Additionally, and maybe not as well known, Bruce Power has other programs that demonstrate its leadership for Ontario and Canada and for North America. Bruce Power is the world's largest supplier of Cobalt-60, an isotope used to treat brain tumors, breast cancer and is being used in the fight for COVID-19. Also, Bruce Power is the first nuclear power reactor approved to commercially produce an innovative therapeutic isotope used in the treatment of prostate cancer and neuroendocrine tumors. Another key project for us in the province of Ontario is our pumped storage project. We have had 2 major milestones this year that we've reached. First, we received approval from the Canadian Department of Defense for site access to begin engineering and environmental assessments early in 2022. And second, we have recently advanced to Gate 2 of IESO's unsolicited proposal process. This project represents one of Canada's largest climate change initiatives. It will provide 1,000 megawatts of flexible, clean, reliable electricity, which is enough electricity to power 1 million homes. Aside from benefiting the climate, this utility-scale project serves as a firming resource to enable Ontario's renewable fleet. This ensures that the province gets the most value from its zero-emission power assets currently on -- in the ground. We believe that large complex projects must be developed with the community and indigenous participation in mind. So for this project, we are proud that we have executed a pathways agreement with the Saugeen Ojibway Nation. This agreement outlines co-development and joint ownership opportunities on the project. This has also been a really exciting year for us when it comes to strategic partnerships. We have a custom tailored strategy for each of our partnerships, which allows us to complement each other's capabilities, diversify risk and share knowledge as we navigate the energy transition together. This approach enables our team to participate in the entire value chain while reducing our exposure to risk. It's important to note that every opportunity we undertake in this area is driven by customer needs, whether it's electrons or molecules. We apply agenda load match strategy designed to customize financial and physical products to manage risk and create value for our customers. As previously mentioned, we have recently finalized 2 joint development agreements to explore hydrogen production hubs in North America. First, with Nikola, we are evaluating locations and technology for industrial scale hydrogen hubs that could produce up to 150 tonnes per day. Nikola manufacturers fuel cell electric vehicles that are primarily served for long-haul transportation markets. And our second complementary partnership is with Hyzon Motors, another FCEV manufacturer. It is focused on smaller scale hubs that produce up to 20 tonnes of hydrogen each day, and these hubs will leverage renewable natural gas to produce net zero or even carbon-negative hydrogen while Hyzon's vehicles serve shorter length transportation needs, commonly referred to as back to base. And as we talk about, on the next slide here, our role in the energy transition, power and storage will play a vital role in the energy transition for TC Energy, providing zero carbon growth opportunities, new technologies and markets, and decarbonizing our North American assets. Like I said earlier, our strategy is a general load match plan, aligning TC Energies electricity loads and those of our customers to new renewable development opportunities across our footprint. This -- the representation on this graph speaks to the significant decarbonization of our assets. And our efforts began this year by providing renewable energy to Keystone's electric pumps in the U.S. and mitigating over 1 million tonnes of CO2 annually. Electrification of our natural gas compression will continue throughout the decade in support of Stan and Tracy as we provide zero carbon energy along the way. Power and storage can satisfy multiple strategic goals progressing towards our ESG targets and providing significant growth opportunities. And speaking of growth, let me review Power and Storage's financial outlook. Power and Storage will provide growth aligned with TC Energy's risk preferences and values. It will be supported by significant long-term contracted EBITDA, quality assets and creditworthy counterparties. Bruce Power will put MCR and Project 2030 capital into service over the coming years, all aligned with historical returns in the low double digits. We will continue to grow over the decade as we systematically electrify our gas assets and leverage power and storage to provide competitively priced industrial-scale renewable power to decarbonize our footprint. This growth will be sanctioned as we progress through the years, assuming stakeholders that -- assuring stakeholders that all projects will meet our thresholds for returns and asset quality. Enabling our internal and external partners energy transition creates a long-term value for all stakeholders by enhancing the quality and durability of our existing assets. We've come to the end of my presentation. And to sum a few things up, I'd like to highlight our takeaways for 2022. In 2022, we will deliver the energy people need every day, safely and reliably, progress our ESG strategies through investment in zero carbon energy regardless of the pace or direction of the energy transition. We will continue to build and enhance key capabilities to execute on our vast set of opportunities. We will grow our renewable energy portfolio by leveraging internal demand and aggregating in-corridor opportunities. And lastly, we're going to execute on incremental growth opportunities aligned with our corporate risk preferences and values. We see a lot of opportunity for the power and storage business in 2022 and beyond. I'd like to thank you for your time, and I'll invite David up to join me for some questions.

Great. Thanks for those comments, Corey. A lot's going on in the Power and Storage business, and that's garnered a few questions here from the investment community. The first one comes from Praneeth Satish at Wells Fargo. Praneeth is saying that earlier today, we mentioned that our assets are a barrier to entry from competitors in the renewable space. Could you elaborate how you intend to leverage our assets to pursue energy transition opportunities and generate returns that are competitive with our natural gas pipeline business?

Thanks for that question, Praneeth. Hopefully, we can see each other in person because it seems like it's a longer question than the small amount of time that we'll have here to answer. But I'll do my best. And I think that I would maybe phrase it a little differently. I think it is an opportunity for us as opposed to a barrier to entry, and it is a competitive advantage for us to have these long-standing existing relationships with our internal customers and with our in-corridor customers that have been customers of TC Energy's other business units for many, many years. And so leveraging those opportunities, understanding how they want to do business, how they want to think about their own energy transition and then being able to apply those opportunities in a way that makes sense for TC Energy and also for the customer, really provides us a competitive advantage versus other participants in the renewable energy sector.

Okay. Next question is from Andrew Kuske at Crédit Suisse. Andrew was wondering about the kinds of premiums you believe you may -- that could be earned from 24/7 green power versus 24/7 -- sorry, versus non-24/7 green power? And specifically on the green side, he's saying including nuclear. In addition, on what time line do you believe Bruce Power could play a role in pink hydrogen?

Well, thanks for that question. I'm not an expert in all the colors of hydrogen. I happen to be colorblind like my boss, François, who will be up here shortly. So if you ask him a color-based question, he'll have the equal challenge. But what I will say is that as we think about hydrogen first, the opportunity set regardless of how -- what -- how or where you're going to use that hydrogen really is focused on who is going to use the hydrogen. And so as time passes, the process of identifying the end-use customer and what they are going to be needing as far as demand and how that demand syncs with what you can create, I think, will be the first step in a long journey to understanding that. But maybe going back to the earlier part of your question around the premiums, around the 24/7 product, I think it's more focused on what customers believe are the requirements in order to meet their own renewable energy goals and their own GHG goals. And so when we think about that, we can deliver a product that is currently cost competitive with the products that they are receiving from their existing energy supplier. And so we think the premiums will be commensurate with the amount of risk that we would have to take in order to deliver that product. And currently, as I mentioned, our idea of a 24/7 product does not include nuclear. It's wind, solar and pumped hydro.

Okay. Okay. Keeping with Bruce Power to some degree here, Michael Lapides at Goldman Sachs is wondering about Project 2030 for Bruce Power. How does cost recovery and a return on capital work for this particular project? Would it be the same sort of rate design, if you will, as will be used for the MCRs? What do you expect the incremental capital spend to be? And when do you expect to deliver the 300-plus megawatts of incremental capacity?

Yes. Once again, Michael, lots of questions dug in there. I'll sort of try to pull it apart in pieces. First, when you ask what do you expect for the incremental capital spend? We're doing it in 3 separate tranches. The first tranche was approved back in 2018. We just approved the second tranche in -- recently here in 2021, and there'll be another tranche out in 2025. And so it's a function of each of the individual design uprates and costing as it moves out into the future. So there's no distinct set that it's going to be specific for each tranche. Each tranche is unique and different as we saw for different parts of improvements. So putting in a more efficient pump or putting in a more efficient set of piping or something of that nature will be different as we look at each one of the 8 units existing there on the site. Then as we think about earlier part of your question, how does the cost recovery work, the [indiscernible] outlines that in detail how we would deal with that. It's a pretty detailed financial mechanism. And what I would say is that it is clearly defined that for cost that we spend at the site, we have a mechanism to recover each and every year as dollars are spent.

Okay. Next question, Corey, is from Rob Hope at Scotiabank. With regards to the Power and Storage business, he's observing that the CapEx outlook is relatively stable for the next few years, I think largely including the MCR work at Unit 6 and then, of course, the Unit 3 to follow. But in the presentation, you highlighted a number of other growth opportunities. When do you expect to start sanctioning some of that capital?

So all of the capital that we are working on for Bruce Power has been sanctioned, and as François indicated in his opening remarks, the MCR 3 will be sanctioned here by year-end by the Bruce Power Board. So we're on track with that component. We expect to sanction the work associated with the renewable energy for the Keystone Pipeline by the end of 2021, and we would expect to see in 2022 the definitive agreements being put in place.

Okay. And time for one last question, which comes from Rob Catellier at CIBC. How will the MCR program at Bruce evolve its risk transfer to reflect any issues related to the force majeure risk associated with COVID-19 protocols?

It's a really interesting question. And there are mechanisms in the [indiscernible], the contract with the IESO to allow that to occur. But what I can tell you unequivocally is Bruce Power has done a fantastic job at managing risk that were created as a function of COVID-19. The site has operated safely, effectively, efficiently and our projects have continued to move forward on schedule, on budget in spite of the challenges that were presented. So I'm really happy and really proud of my colleagues at Bruce Power that they have been able to manage this challenge effectively. And as those economic variables are brought into place, there's a mechanism to be considered in the contractual arrangement with the province.

And sorry, Corey, one last one that's just come in from Praneeth at Wells Fargo. He had a follow-up question. And I think you addressed some of it during your presentation, but he's wondering about the biggest pushback so far on the pumped hydro project in Ontario. And what milestones are you looking for before you actually move forward?

Well, I'd say first, Praneeth, that we have had lots of public support from both the local indigenous community and the local community for that particular project. I think the biggest pushback that we received is new pump hydro has not been constructed in North America in a bit of time, even though it's sort of the oldest battery that we have known in the energy industry. It has been a while since one has been constructed, so we spent a lot of time and energy making sure we connect with our stakeholders to understand how it works and making sure it is impacting the environment in the most conscientious way that we can for the particular design of that facility.

Okay. And I apologize, Corey, but it looks like we've got 1 more. I promise this will be the last one. Matt Taylor from TPH wanting some color on the investment priorities you're considering for equity participation in a number of the initiatives that you have underway and how you think about that?

Sure. I put it into 2 pretty distinct buckets. First, there are strategic locations where we have an intersection of our assets, whether it be the liquids assets or the U.S. natural gas assets. So if there's an opportunity for us to serve multiple assets in -- across our footprint or multiple in-corridor customers, we will take a longer and harder look at ensuring that we have an opportunity to not only put equity into the project, but maintain operational control so that we can really serve our customers most effectively. And the second bucket is, what about our other participants, specifically indigenous participants? And does it have a specific need that meets for those groups.

Great. Thanks, Corey. We very much appreciate your insight on the Power and Storage business. That concludes our session on power and storage, and Joel Hunter will join us next to provide you with financial outlook.

Good morning, and thank you for participating in our virtual Investor Day. I'm already looking forward to next year when I can see all of you in person. Now before I begin, I want to level set expectations for the day here. As many of you know, our recently retired CFO, Don Marchand, always had a few memorable Investor Day quotes that often found their way into research reports. Now unfortunately, I cannot match Don's quick wit, so I must apologize in advance as I will not have any memorable one-liners for you this year. So earlier, you heard about the tremendous opportunities that lie ahead for our company and why we are so excited about our future. We believe we offer a compelling value proposition, driven by core principles that have guided our business decisions for over 20 years. Simply put, we take a long-term view grounded in industry fundamentals. We believe energy demand will continue to grow, and there will be significant opportunities to build new energy infrastructure and our irreplaceable asset footprint will be used and useful for decades to come. We believe energy transition is a once-in-a-generation opportunity. It's not a threat that will provide our industry with trillions of dollars of investment opportunities. Our well-established conservative risk preferences inform when and how we invest capital. Basically, we create long-term annuity streams and finance them with long-term capital. This disciplined approach allows us to capture a spread that maximizes shareholder value over time. We have consistently allocated our internally generated cash flow in a manner that strikes the right balance between reinvesting in our business and paying a sustainable and growing dividend. And finally, we believe maintaining a strong balance sheet and financial strength makes us resilient and preserves our ability to act at all points of the economic cycle, whether it was the 2008, 2009 financial crisis or the Columbia Pipeline Group acquisition in 2016, having a strong and resilient balance sheet served us well and will continue to do so in the future. Adhering to these core principles, maximizes shareholder value and offers a unique value proposition, our asset footprint spans 3 geographies and 5 business lines and is critical to the North American economy. We deliver the energy people need every day safely, responsibly and with integrity. Today, more than 95% of our EBITDA comes from regulated assets or long-term contracts. This sets us apart from our peers and provides us with a competitive advantage as we are largely insulated from commodity and volumetric risk. Over the past 20 years, we have generated superior total shareholder returns through both share price appreciation and dividend income that has averaged 12% per year. Today, we are advancing $29 billion of commercially secured projects. And going forward, we expect to sanction at least $5 billion per year of new projects. As you heard from François, this year, we sanctioned $7 billion of new projects consistent with our risk preferences and return requirements. Our operational and financial performance through the first 9 months this year has us on pace to exceed last year's record results. We are very pleased with this outcome considering the decline in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to the Canadian dollar, which negatively impacted our reported EBITDA. Through the first 9 months this year, we generated USD 3.4 billion of comparable EBITDA translated at an average rate of $1.25. During the same period last year, comparable EBITDA was USD 3.2 billion, translated at an average rate of $1.35. As a result of this $0.10 difference year-over-year, we've experienced an approximate $340 million negative impact on our reported EBITDA. Put another way, if there was no change in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to the Canadian dollar, 2021 reported EBITDA would be in excess of $9.7 billion. As highlighted in our Q3 outlook, we now expect our comparable EPS to exceed last year's record results of $4.20 per share. Through the first 9 months, comparable EPS was 5% higher at $3.21 per share compared to $3.05 per share in 2020. And yes, we are old school, and we believe earnings do matter. As mentioned earlier, we sanctioned $7 billion of high-quality capital projects, consistent with our risk preferences and return requirements and an average unlevered after-tax return of 8.3%. This further demonstrates our ability to deliver on our long-term growth plans. Our liquidity and access to the capital markets remains solid. We just completed the renewal and extension of our committed credit facilities that totaled $10 billion in range from 1 year to 5 years in duration. These facilities fully backstop our well-established CAD 3 billion and USD 4.5 billion commercial paper programs, and we've also been active in the capital markets this year. In March, we issued $500 million of junior subordinated notes that will mature in 2081 at an initial fixed rate of 4.2% for the first 10 years. The proceeds from this offering were used to redeem all of our Series 13 preferred shares. In June, we issued a total of $1.5 billion of medium-term notes in the Canadian market. They included $750 million of 3-year notes at a floating rate and $750 million with an average term of 15 years and an average fixed rate of 3.4%. In October, we issued a total of $2.25 billion of senior notes in the U.S. market with an average term of 6 years at an average rate of 1.7%. And finally, consistent with one of our core principles of maintaining a simple and understandable corporate structure, we acquired the outstanding interest in TC PipeLines, LP in March for approximately $2.1 billion. Both graphics showing here illustrate the diversity of our portfolio by business line and geography. The consensus estimates for 2021 comparable EBITDA of $9.4 billion once again highlights our strong operational and financial performance. Canadian Gas Pipelines, shown in dark blue, comprised primarily of the NGTL System and the Canadian Mainline, make up almost 30% of our EBITDA. They are regulated by the CER and are currently operating under 5- and 6-year settlements, respectively. Under Canadian cost of service regulation, net income, in our opinion, is a more appropriate measure than EBITDA when assessing financial performance and value. For example, if interest, tax or depreciation expenses were to increase, so would EBITDA as they are cost of service pass-through. However, net income would not change. It is based on a formula, it factors investment base, deemed common equity and allowed ROE. Our U.S. Gas Pipelines portfolio, shown in the medium shade of blue, is comprised of 13 demand [ pull pipes ] that make up approximately 40% of our EBITDA. All are FERC regulated, and periodic rate cases and settlements ensure that we earn an appropriate return of and on capital. Mexico Gas Pipelines, shown here in lighter blue, is currently comprised of 5 operating pipelines underpinned by long-term take-or-pay contracts with the CFE where we earn a full return of and on capital all paid in U.S. dollars. Liquids Pipelines, shown in green, includes both Keystone and Grand Rapids, which are underpinned by long-term contracts and generate the majority of liquids EBITDA. Liquids marketing and Marketlink, which was the Keystone XL prebuilt from Cushing to the Gulf Coast, have some merchant capacity that typically generates a low single-digit percentage of EBITDA. As we heard from Bevin earlier, our focus will be to contract up this portion of the Liquids segment, further reducing EBITDA variability going forward. Power and Storage, comprised of 7 generating stations, shown here in yellow, will contribute approximately 7% to EBITDA this year. Bruce Power is by far the largest asset in this segment, contributing the majority of the EBITDA, while the Power and Storage assets in Alberta contribute approximately 1% to 2%. Overall, approximately 40% of EBITDA is generated in Canadian dollars, and 60% is U.S. dollar-denominated. We are advancing $29 billion of secured growth projects that are expected to enter service by 2026 and help power the North American economy for decades to come. Now consistent with our risk preferences and return requirements, all our projects are underpinned by long-term contracts or regulated business models that gives us the visibility to earnings and cash flow they will generate for years to come. As you can see here, $24 billion or 80% of our growth portfolio is related to the natural gas pipeline network in Canada, the U.S. and Mexico. This infrastructure is critical to meet growing demand for energy and the transition to a cleaner energy future. Power and Storage comprise 16% of our capital spending as Bruce Power advances its life extension program. This includes both units 6 and 3 but does not include the Life Extension Program for the remaining 4 reactors, which is expected to run through 2032. The Life Extension Program is underpinned by a long-term contract with the Ontario IESO that extends to 2064, providing us with stable and predictable earnings and cash flow in the province with emission-less power. Turning now to our spend profile for the $29 billion of secured capital projects. We have spent approximately $8 billion to date, leaving us with $21 billion of capital expenditures over the next 5 years. This chart outlines our spending on secured projects and maintenance capital as well as capitalized interest and debt AFUDC by year. As a reminder, 90% of our maintenance capital, which totals approximately $9 billion during this period, is recoverable through tolls and, therefore, is equivalent to growth capital. It's also important to note that these amounts do not reflect any new growth projects that could be sanctioned between now and 2026, and this helps explain why the spending profile is front-end loaded. As new projects are sanctioned, we expect capital expenditures in the outer years to grow and continue to average $5 billion per year. So why are we so bullish on our future? Well, as you heard earlier, we are well positioned to meet growing demand while modernizing our assets through in-quarter growth projects. That said, the energy mix of the future will evolve with renewables, for example, making up a greater proportion of the overall fuel mix. As a result, you will see our capital allocation shift over time to meet the energy mix of the future. We view this as a once-in-a-generation opportunity. Whether it's electrifying our fleet, developing firming resources like the Ontario and Canyon Creek pump storage projects, the Alberta Carbon Grid in partnership with Pembina, our agreement to develop clean energy projects with Irving Oil, along with hydrogen agreements with Nikola and Hyzon, you can see why we are so excited about energy transition. Our stable and growing asset base, technical capabilities, innovative approach and financial strength means we are well positioned to prosper irrespective of the pace and direction of energy transition. We are opportunity rich, and our challenge, quite frankly, will be to allocate capital to projects that are best aligned with our capabilities, proven and tested risk preferences and return requirements, and I can assure you that we'll be -- we will not compromise our unwavering commitment to being thoughtful, deliberate and disciplined in every investment decision we make. Now let's spend some time walking through our funding plan. Starting in the left column, our total requirements over the next 5 years are projected to be approximately $51 billion. This reflects capital expenditures, including maintenance capital of $21 billion, dividends of $19 billion and scheduled debt maturities of $11 billion. The second column highlights expected to internally generate cash flow of $39 billion. So the key takeaway here is that over the next 5 years, we are largely self-funded as our current capital program and anticipated dividend payments are essentially equivalent to internally generated cash flow. As a result, we plan to issue long-term debt of approximately $10 billion largely to refinance debt maturities, and that leaves us with approximately $2 billion depicted in the far-right column that we expect to fund through a combination of commercial paper and cash on hand. In addition, we will continue to assess third-party capital and innovative partnerships where it makes sense. Now looking forward, based on our secured capital program of $29 billion, we have a clear line of sight to average annual EBITDA growth of 5% through 2026. We are highly confident in this outlook. As on average, as you heard from François earlier, our secured capital program will produce unlevered after-tax returns of approximately 8%. Similar to today, by 2026, approximately 95% of our EBITDA will come from regulated and long-term contracted assets. Now we're not going to stop here. As you heard earlier, there are numerous levers to build on this 5% growth rate in each of our business units. So whether it's capital-light revenue enhancements or cost savings, in-quarter expansions, extensions and modernizations, along with energy transition opportunities, we feel confident that 5% growth serves as a baseline to additional growth opportunities and enhancements. Now turning to our financial flexibility. The combination of essentially no meaningful change in our total debt outstanding by the end of this 5-year period, along with 5% EBITDA growth, will drive debt-to-EBITDA below our stated target of 4.75x. This provides us with meaningful debt capacity to fund the $5 billion per year of future growth opportunities that we expect to sanction that will be aligned with our risk preferences and return requirements. Lower leverage, combined with an excellent business profile, aligns with one of our core principles of balance sheet strength and financial flexibility, which we believe is a competitive advantage. It provides us also with top-tier credit ratings. Today, we are rated A- in Fitch Ratings, A low at DBRS, BBB+ at S&P and Baa1 in Moody's, all with stable outlooks. In addition, it gives us significant optionality with how we allocate our capital. Our capital allocation balances grow and reinvestment with focus on per-share metrics. If we cannot find investment opportunities that do not adhere to our conservative risk preferences and return requirements, we have the option to buy back common shares, increase dividends or reduce our leverage further. Given we've now been so focused so far on EBITDA, it's worthwhile to spend some time discussing items below the line. Consistent with one of our tenets to underpin long-term assets with long-term capital, the average term of our debt is -- portfolio is approximately 18 years to final maturity, and approximately 90% of it is fixed rate. This, combined with regulatory and commercial arrangements in place, mitigates the impact of interest rate movements. In terms of income taxes, we expect a normalized tax rate in the mid- to high teens, consistent with previous years. In arriving at this range, we excluded flow-through taxes on our Canadian pipes, along with noncash AFUDC associated with our U.S. pipes. Looking at our current deferred split, the 40% to 60% band still applies for the foreseeable future. Now in terms of depreciation, it does vary somewhat but, on average, represents approximately 2.5% of gross property, plant and equipment on an annual basis. Depreciation is a key lever that we can -- can be accelerated or decelerated to ensure return of capital on economic life of assets. In terms of foreign exchange, our U.S. dollar-denominated EBITDA streams, which also include Mexico in most of our liquids pipes, are partially naturally hedged with interest expense on our U.S. debt portfolio, along with depreciation expense associated with these assets. After factoring these natural hedges, we are structurally long approximately USD 2 billion per year after tax. And we actively hedge this residual exposure over a rolling 24-month basis with a particular focus on the first 12 months, and it is important to note that we have the ability to only hedge net income, and this explains why comparable EPS was not impacted despite a weakening of the U.S. dollar relative to the Canadian dollar so far this year as we are hedged at an average rate of $1.36. Now to the extent net income is not hedged and appropriate sensitivity is, for every $0.01 move in the exchange rate, EPS is impacted by approximately $0.02. So as we heard from François earlier, we are building on 21 consecutive years of common share dividend growth, beginning with $0.80 per share in 2000 to $3.48 per share this year. Beginning next year, our dividend is poised to grow by 3% to 5%, supported by continued strong performance from our base business, along with sustainable growth in earnings and cash flow per share as the $29 billion of projects enter in service. Now this will provide us with the ability to fund a larger portion of our future capital programs through internally generated cash flow, enhance our already conservative payout ratios, moderate our leverage and continue to deliver superior long-term total shareholder returns through share price appreciation and dividend income. So to wrap up, I just want to leave you with some of the CFO group 2022 priorities. First, we'll remain focused on maintaining our financial strength and flexibility. Our capital program will be funded with a combination of internally generated cash flow and debt capacity. We will continue to build upon the $29 billion capital program by sanctioning $5 billion of new growth projects, consistent with our conservative risk preferences and unlevered after-tax return requirements in the range of 7% to 9%. And finally, as we deliver on sustainability and ESG commitments, watch for save the date as we'll be hosting our first-ever ESG Investor Day in the spring, and we'll also look for opportunities similar to our peers to establish sustainability-linked financing network. So those are my prepared remarks, and pleased to take any questions, and thank you.

Great. Thanks for those comments, Joel, on our financial outlook. We've got a number of questions, again, that's come in from the investment community. The first one is from Shneur at UBS, and he's wondering about buybacks. You made some reference to those in your opening -- in your comments. More specifically, he's wondering, "Does that mean they'll be considered after hitting our 4.75 debt-to-EBITDA target? Is there a scenario where we issue equity or equity-like instruments in the near term and then look to buybacks in intermediate to longer term?"

So a good question. Why don't I start with the second part of that question first where there's reference to issuing equity. In my prepared remarks, what you see with the funding plan program over the next 5 years is that it's basically funded from internally generated cash flow. That's the great thing here. When you see $39 billion of cash flow over this 5-year period, you got capital spend of $21 billion along with your -- with the dividends around $19 billion, we're essentially self-funded. So there's certainly no need for common equity during this period. Once we get through this 4.75 target, that's predicated on the $29 billion program going through completion. It also means that if we don't have any additional options for our capital, David, that if we went through this target, then certainly, that would be an option that we could buy back our shares, but I think you've heard from everyone today, we are opportunity rich. And so what I expect is the capacity that's going to come from the $29 billion capital program, along with a strong base business performance, we're going to use that capacity to reinvest in our business so long as it meets our risk requirements and our return requirements, but failing that, we would look to buying back shares.

Maybe keeping with the right-hand side of the balance sheet and financing, Joel, Michael Lapides at Goldman Sachs is asking, "How much in the way of hybrids or convertible securities do you anticipate issuing in the coming years? And have the rating agencies pressed us to deleverage materially more than where we sit essentially exiting 2021?"

So thanks, Michael. Yes, we -- so right now, when you look at our -- the hybrids and preferred shares, they comprise the, call it, the subordinated capital component of our capital structure. Today, it's around 15%, and it's actually been at around 15% for the last number of years, and that's kind of the maximum that we see in our portfolio and how we fund our business. So in the coming years, obviously, the balance sheet will grow, and with that would come capacity to issue additional hybrid securities, whether it's junior supported notes or additional preferred shares, but we certainly don't have it in our plans right now simply because of my comments earlier, which is we're largely self-funded with internally generated cash flow during this period. So we'd use our debt next to fund because that's also the cheapest source of funding next to using our cash flow. The second part of Michael's question with respect to have we been pressed to delever from -- where we exited 2021 from the agencies, the answer to that is no. We always have ongoing dialogue with the agencies. It's always very constructive, and we respect their views, but they have established targets for us that haven't changed, and the targets are roughly 5x debt to EBITDA for 3 of the agencies. Moody's is a little bit different because they proportionately consolidate debt that's not otherwise showing up on our balance sheet. So it's a bit of a higher threshold there of around 5.5x. But there's been no change to those thresholds, nor has there been any pressure to delever, and in fact, I'd point everyone to our leverage metrics where we exited both 2019 and 2020. We actually achieved our stated targets, and we talked about the high 4s. We actually were at 4.9x in both those years. So certainly no pressure coming from the agencies to delever.

Okay. Next question is from Andrew Kuske at Credit Suisse. Andrew is highlighting that the capital program drops down below the average of $5 billion a year as we move out into '24 -- 2024 and beyond. How do you handicap the existing slate of projects for backfilling, what he calls the softer years in capital deployment? Are you purposely keeping capacity in anticipation of things like the Alberta Carbon Grid, which could firm things up in the quarters ahead?

Yes. So it's a good question, Andrew, and yes, when you look at the one chart where I show our capital spend by year, what Andrew is referring to is it's starting really in 2023. We're below that, that we put a line in our $5 billion per year. I think we have around $4.5 billion, to be exact, in 2023, and then we do see it scaling down. Our options are open. As we evaluate our opportunity set that we see in front of us along all of our business lines, we'll look at as we evaluate and how we allocate our capital, again, it has to adhere to our risk preferences. So it's going to be underpinned by a long-term contract, our regulated model, and it has to adhere to our return requirements. So as we've heard earlier, our return requirements are in that 7% to 9% on unlevered after-tax type basis. So as projects come in from the business units, we will evaluate, and we will allocate our capital accordingly. We're not preserving any type of capacity for one specific project like the Alberta Carbon Grid. We don't know the timing of that just yet. We're certainly just -- looked at all the other opportunities that we have in front of us, and whatever comes our way, like I said, if it adheres to our risk and return requirements, we'll deploy the capital accordingly.

Okay. Thanks, Joel. Next question is from Linda Ezergailis at TD Securities. Joel, Linda is wondering about how you think about project-level financing, sustainability bonds or equity partners for certain energy transition-related initiatives, and how are they compared versus your more typical financing options.

So Linda, it's a very good question. Traditionally, we finance from the center at TCPL, and then through intercompany loans, et cetera, we put the money into where it needs to be. There are unique circumstances where we look at project financing, and I'll give you a few examples. One is Bruce, just for its unique circumstances, and we do have a partner there with OMERS; the CGL project, where we brought in 2 partners in KKR and AIMCo where we now own 35%. So it made sense to put project-level debt at that asset, and we also use it occasionally for ratemaking for FERC-regulated pipes. So we look at project financing, but again, it has to be for specific circumstances where it really makes meaning because at the end of the day, our financing philosophy is to source the cheapest capital to fund our projects, and kind of 9 times out of 10, that's going to be at the center, but again, there's going to be these unique circumstances where project financing does make sense. With sustainable bonds, as I said in my prepared remarks, it's something that we are looking at, and now that we have -- you heard Patrick talk earlier about our stated targets on emissions, the 30% by 2030, that's an important component to us looking at sustainable bonds because when you issue sustainable bonds, there can probably be 1, 2 or 3 kind of KPIs, or key performance indicators, and one of them is going to be on the E side that if you had stated emissions targets, that's going to be important. So now that we have that in place, we're actually working on the framework so that we're in a position to potentially issue sustainable bonds and loans in 2022. So it's something that we're working toward. I think Linda's other question was just with the equity partners. Certainly, we've had a great deal of success with bringing in partners. You think about the CGL project, as mentioned earlier, where we brought in KKR and AIMCo. So as we think about our opportunities going forward here related to energy transition, we'll evaluate, but for the most part, we like to own 100% of the assets. We think that we do it better than anyone, but there will be certain circumstances where it might make sense to bring in an equity partner.

Okay. And maybe a little bit further to that, Joel. I think Robert, I think, at RBC is asking a similar kind of question, but he's honing in a little bit on the Canadian regulated gas pipeline systems, and Robert is essentially offering that given the relatively higher leverage for those assets, would you explore some sort of partnership or securitization transaction possibly along the lines what was put out there by others as a way to improve the growth rate or improve your leverage metrics?

So good question, Robert. First, when you look at our Canadian pipes, we have to be very mindful that these provide solid, sustainable earnings and cash flow with the regulatory construct that we have in place. We like our investment in the Canadian pipes, and they also serve as a real ground -- a baseline, if you will, for our credit ratings, again, the stable earnings and cash flow that come from those assets. So it's something that -- as we think about growing, that we would look to bringing in any kind of partnerships into those assets. I don't think we're looking at that rate now simply because when you look at our opportunity set and the ability to self-fund and the debt capacity that were going to have to come with it, it's certainly something that we're not considering at this point in time. We like to have 100% ownership of these assets. Yes, they do have higher leverage. They always have, but there's a reason they have higher leverage, and that's because they have an excellent business risk profile. With regulated construct here and the ability to pass through costs, and Tracy talked about it earlier, whether it's interest cost, tax cost, as long as it's prudently and reasonably incurred, we can pass it through. So that's why we really like these assets. They've been around our company for 60 years, and I expect they're going to be around for a very, very long time.

Great. Maybe just a question, Joel, that we've actually got from a few investors. They're wondering -- and I think you've touched on it, but again, wondering about our ability to add to our sort of secured capital program over the next 5 years; in other words, to sort of fill up that space between where we're at today and the $5 billion or so that we're targeting to spend in each of the next 5 years. And can you actually do that while abiding to your historic risk preferences and return requirements? And lastly, another part of the question, do you expect it to come from organic growth? Or is M&A required?

So the first one is, yes, we are very confident in that the new projects that we will be bringing forward will adhere to our conservative risk preferences. So again, they'll be underpinned by long-term contracts. So they will be supported by a regulated model, and they will adhere to our return requirements of that range of, again, 7% to 9% on unlevered after-tax basis. So no, we're very comfortable with that. And the second part, sorry, David, was?

Second part was really -- there's a great opportunity, I think, to backfill through organic growth, but is M&A required at all to achieve this target?

No. No. We're very comfortable with our organic growth that we have and the options in front of us, and we never plan for M&A. M&A will come available at times. Given who we are, we get to see everything that comes up for sale, but certainly, we're not factoring M&A into our growth. When we look at M&A, and I'm sure François might address this later, it's to be opportunistic and where we think we can -- really, it has strategic merits, and it can add long-term shareholder value. A great example of that would be the Columbia Pipeline Group acquisition back in 2016. We had a white space in Appalachia and [ felt in ] Columbia Pipeline Group that was witnessing kind of the MLP melt down that was going on at the time, and that was its primary source of funding. So things came together where we had this white space, fits really strategically within our business. They were having trouble financing themselves, and we were able to come in and act when others couldn't because we were competing with a lot of other MLPs that didn't have the access to capital. So we were able to come in. That's where having a strong balance sheet and the resiliency really pays dividends, but again, we certainly don't factor M&A in our planning.

Okay. And just 2 others. One, maybe a bit more of a technical question, but Michael Lapides at Goldman Sachs, "You talked a little bit about cash taxes in your presentation, Joel, but could you remind the audience of whether or not you see any material changes in cash tax in the coming years?"

Yes. Michael, yes, good question, and what I said in my prepared remarks is that our current deferred split is in that 40% to 60%. So when we say current, that is cash taxes around the 40% range. So we certainly don't see anything materially changing as far as our cash taxes go over the next few years.

Okay. And one last question from Jeremy Tonet at JPMorgan, and I'll qualify this, Jeremy, by the fact that we don't generally provide earnings guidance, if you will, but I think more broadly, Jeremy is wondering about how you see sort of earnings growth evolving over time. If I could, I'd put it in terms of somewhat linear, a little bit front-end loaded, a little bit back-end loaded, but just more broadly speaking, how we see earnings growth in the next few years?

Yes. So what I'll do is to Jeremy's question, just thinking about 2022 EBITDA, and you'll see additional disclosure on this when we release our annual report in mid-February where, as part of our reporting requirements, we report on our outlook for 2022, and it's relative to 2021, and we'll have all the qualifiers in there as to ins and outs, if you will, that would be impacting that outlook. As it relates to EBITDA, though, for next year, obviously, we see it going higher, and that's based on continued strong operating performance from our base business, along with a significant number of assets entering commercial and service through various points of the year. So it's not like they're all going to be coming in on Jan 1, you expect to get a full year of EBITDA, but I think what we've calculated is around $6.5 billion of assets coming into service next year, half of which would be in the NGTL System. So certainly, that's going to contribute to higher EBITDA in 2022. As your question, David, to, around is it linear, it more or less is as we look further out, whether with our EBITDA growth, that there's some fluctuations all the time and along the way, and one of the things I always refer to is impacts of foreign exchange rates. We just have to be conscious of that, and actually, we felt that this year where, as I mentioned earlier, we've had about a $340 million headwind from FX rates, but for the most part, we do see a fairly linear trajectory here going through the next 5 years.

That's great. Thanks, Joel. Thanks to all for your questions. That concludes our financial outlook. François is going to join us now to offer a few closing comments, and he'll take any last questions.

I'll keep my remarks brief and then happy to take a few questions. I just want to reemphasize our vision and the fact that we have a clear vision. We believe energy fundamentals are supportive of our strategy. We have competitively positioned assets, and we have a robust capital allocation framework and several growth opportunities that will allow us to deliver, in our view, quite a compelling risk-adjusted growth rate going forward. Over the past year, we've really focused on bolstering our capabilities around origination and around energy transition, and it's widened our lens. It's allowed us to see a wider landscape of opportunity, which, again, is, I think, the big change and the big learning for us as a management team this year. The opportunity set before us is quite vast, and our biggest challenge, as Joel mentioned, is going to be to have the discipline to allocate capital in a manner that is consistent with our risk preferences and with our historical return expectations. We are very confident in our ability to do that on the base of the opportunity set and in the conversations we've been having with the marketplace and with our customers. So with that, I'll be pleased to take a few questions, and if you would please join me, David. Thank you.

Well, thanks, François, for those closing comments, and as I mentioned, we do have a few questions here for you as we wrap up the day. First one comes from Ben Pham at BMO Capital Markets, and I think he's referring back to your remarks earlier this morning, François. He says, "On your goal to increase diversification, does your expected EBITDA composition in 2026, where Power and Storage is 12% to 15%, achieve that strategic goal? Or do you prefer a more meaningful shift in the business mix? Secondly, what energy infrastructure assets do you think have the longest-dated useful life? Is it nuclear power, gas pipelines, gas pipelines blended with hydrogen, et cetera?"

Lots of great questions in there, Ben. Thank you for asking. First of all, the 12% to 15% target is a point-in-time target. It's 2026. As we think about our capital allocation and building a platform that can prosper irrespective of the pace and direction energy transition takes, we think in 10- and 20-year horizons. But it's hard to have much visibility beyond 2026. What I'll tell you is that having hard and fast targets beyond a 5-year horizon can be dangerous. We want to make sure that we monitor the pace of energy transition. We want to make sure that we're maximizing the value of our existing assets, and we don't want to back into a portfolio composition for its own sake. Whatever assets and capital investment opportunities deliver the best return, overall points in the economic cycle is where we are going to go. As to which infrastructure assets or asset classes have the longest-dated useful life, you mentioned our nuclear assets. We have a contract out to 2064 with the Ontario IESO. That's 42 years from next year. So that's a pretty long time. When I talked about our capital allocation framework in my prepared remarks at the beginning of the morning, I talked about focusing on investments that would extend the life of our assets. So from my perspective, finding ways to reduce the emissions from our existing natural gas infrastructure, be it through electrification of our compressor stations, be it from blending hydrogen into our existing pipeline infrastructure, will extend the lives of those assets, and with proper maintenance, there's no reason why those assets can't last 40 years and beyond. So I think the value that our infrastructure is going to bring is going to be lasting over multiple decades.

That's great. Second question is from Shneur at UBS. François, he indicates that at the beginning of the slide deck, specifically on Slide 8, we comment that capital rotation competes with the issuance of common shares. Should we take that to mean that TC Energy would evaluate issuing equity should the right project with attractive returns come along?

That's a great question. Thank you. And I'll say that as part of our risk preferences, we always reserve equity issuance for transformational or strategic purposes, but even then, we look at what's available in the stack beforehand from the lowest cost of capital to the highest cost of capital. So to the extent we have dry powder in the form of excess debt capacity, we will use it, first. To the extent we have dry powder with respect to our hybrid capital, we will use that, second. And then when it comes to internal or external sources of equity, we will evaluate internal sources of equity through sale of assets, and you saw with respect to funding the Columbia Pipeline program, we monetize a number of our power assets. We monetize our interest in Northern Courier over time. We are prepared to do that. There is an embedded cost -- implied cost of capital in the purchase price that goes with divestitures, and so we can quite clearly compare what is the lowest cost of capital between a divestiture and equity issuance. So equity issuance for us is the last line of defense. We reserve it for strategic opportunities, but if a strategic opportunity comes along, like Columbia did, we will issue equity if it's accretive, not only in the long term, but in the near term.

That's great, and I think that may in part go -- part way to answering the next question, François. Next question is from Robert Kwan at RBC, and Robert is asking that, "As you approach any opportunistic M&A, what are the must haves, if you will, as you think about M&A activity? How do you think about EPS accretion and over what time period? How do you think about leverage? For example, would you temporarily leverage up in order to achieve the outcome that you're looking for? And is there anything material that you think about on the M&A front through 2022?"

Thanks for the question, Robert. I kind of anticipated you'd ask that question. You've asked it on many earnings calls, and I always appreciate you doing that because it gives me a chance to talk about the robustness of our organic growth, and as Joel mentioned, we are not reliant at all on M&A going forward to deliver on our stated minimum 5% compound annual growth rate, which, frankly, we believe we can exceed purely through organic means. I will say that there is one area where I would be looking to be more opportunistic, and that's given the opportunity set that we see in renewables, and this is not in terms of acquiring a backlog of projects, Corey and his team have demonstrated a tremendous ability to originate renewable opportunities for us, but from a capability standpoint, remember, strategically, given our vision, our goal is to build a platform that will be able to prosper irrespective of the pace and direction energy transition takes. If we can accelerate the development of the capability, meaning the development in construction and operation of renewables, through an acquisition of a platform, and these are not multiple billion-dollar opportunities. Typically, they are much more modest relative to our size. I think that is something that we would contemplate in 2022 if the right entity became available. In terms of leverage metrics, every acquisition has to pay for itself. Perhaps it has a steeper slope of growth, whereby we might suffer some near-term dilution over a year or 2 and that we see significant outsized accretion in later years, but at the end of the day, whether we look at it from an intrinsic value standpoint, what's the internal rate of return from the investment, we triangulate that with earnings per share accretion and our credit metrics as we balance all of those different things. Those are the things that go into factoring whether or not we would proceed with an acquisition and then how we would fund it.

Okay. Next question comes from Linda Ezergailis at TD Securities, and François, she's wondering about how you think about the merits of value chain extension. I mean that could obviously be done through M&A as an example, but similarly, could you comment on whether participating in energy infrastructure for other hydrocarbons like NGLs or refined products might forward your strategic objectives? Finally, any white spaces on the map that you'd like to fill in?

Next time we get together for coffee, Linda, I'll be able to more -- answer your question in a little bit more detail, but when you look at the asset classes we have and you look at the opportunity set we have, we don't really see a tremendous need for us to step out, particularly as it relates to distribution utilities or LNG exports. We benefit from the growth in exports of LNG by serving them, and with the expansion projects, particularly in the U.S., that we've undertaken over the last many years, our market share of supplying natural gas to the LNG facilities is approaching our overall market share of transporting all the natural gas molecules across North America. So I'm not feeling a compelling need from that standpoint. In terms of other hydrocarbons, I'd like to see us continue our diversification in terms of our power and storage infrastructure and reducing our emissions, particularly infrastructure that helps our customers reduce their emission profile. As I said before, when you look at overlaying our infrastructure over the large emitters in North America, we are very well located. In fact, we are at the intersection of molecules and electrons as a company. We are at the intersection of molecules and electrons, like few of our peers are. We've been in the power business for 30 years. We understand the relationship between the 2, and when our customers are looking to reduce their emissions, they need someone as a partner who understands that relationship, and I see much more value and an ability for us to allocate significant capital in a leadership role and with very attractive returns playing in that space rather than looking at more traditional adjacencies.

Okay. Next question comes from Michael Lapides at Goldman Sachs. Michael is asking, "How does ownership of liquids pipelines fit into the long-term construct around becoming more ESG focused, especially the impact on the environmental component of energy transition efforts that you're undertaking?"

Yes. Thanks for that, Michael. I'll make 2 comments about our liquids business. First of all, we are leading our emission-reduction efforts at TC Energy via our liquids business because we are currently a large consumer of electricity for the pump stations along our infrastructure and our ability to originate and source emission-less electricity to meet those requirements is allowing us as a company to advance our GHG emission reduction targets. So we're in no rush to see our liquids business move away from that perspective because it is really helping us reduce our Scope 2 emissions. Also, as you heard from Bevin through the presentation, there is a long line of low-hanging fruit and value for us to create as the owner of our liquids business, whether it's ramping up our base Keystone volumes throughout the course of 2022 and beyond with the open season we ran in 2019 because of the operational excellence that Bevin and his team have demonstrated or it's moving more barrels on our Marketlink system. These are capital-light or no-capital, frankly, opportunities for us to grow EBITDA, and I [ loathe ] to consider any strategic alternatives until we've actually captured that value. Now beyond then, any alternative to the status quo will have to compete with the fact that we earn stable, long-term, high-quality returns from our base Keystone system with investment-grade counterparties, and as we saw through the pandemic, our pipeline -- our Keystone system remained full and certainly in terms of the contracted capacity. So it's a very valuable system. It will help us lead the charge in terms of our emission-reduction efforts, and there's definitely some low-hanging fruit for us on the value standpoint -- from a value standpoint that we want to prosecute before considering any other alternatives.

Okay. Thanks, François. It looks like one more question. Becca Followill from U.S. Capital Advisors is asking, "A lot of your incremental non-sanctioned projects appear to target clean energy projects or ESG initiatives. Clean energy is an incredibly competitive market. How do you ensure that you earn returns consistent with previous ones and ensure full recovery on those ESG initiatives?"

That's a great question. Thank you, Becca. Because it gives me the opportunity again to remind you of the competitive position of our assets today. ESG investments aren't just about renewables, and by the way, renewables are all -- are not one-size-fits-all. If you're acquiring operating assets, yes, the returns are very competitive, but if you have a development capability, if you have a construction capability, if you have an operating capability, which we've demonstrated, we've owned wind and solar power in the past, we can garner improved returns. But when you combine that with Bruce Power where we're earning -- of course, we're taking cost and schedule risk, but we're earning double-digit returns on an unlevered after-tax basis, and you look at some of the other initiatives we're talking about like hydrogen hubs, for example, what is a hydrogen hub? It is a renewable opportunity. It is a carbon-capture opportunity, and it is a pipeline opportunity. There are barriers to entry to develop those hydrogen hubs, and we have the assets to enable us to develop those opportunities, which is why in conversations with Irving Oil, Nikola, Hyzon and others, those are the customers of the hydrogen that is produced. We've had conversations about the commercial structures that would underpin our capital allocation. We've had conversations about what reasonable returns would be, which is why we are confident that -- in our ability to allocate capital in those areas, and it's not just about renewables, in those areas in a manner consistent with our risk preferences and our historical return expectations. So again, it's about having that competitive advantage. Our job is to translate that into premium returns, and we're very confident in our ability to do that.

That's great, François. It looks like we've covered all of the questions that are out there. So I would say that, that concludes our 2021 Investor Day. We hope you found this session useful. We very much appreciate your time today, and we do look forward to speaking with you again soon.